For Iran, the NIE Report Is the Gift that Keeps On Giving
Hope of a strong united international front against Iran is gone, after the CIA gave it a clean bill of health regarding nuclear weapons. PJM Middle East analyst Meir Javedanfar shows how the world is suddenly a much friendlier place for President Ahmadinejad.
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Less than eight days after it was first published, the NIE report on Iran has delivered its third diplomatic victory for Tehran.
The first accomplishment for Tehran took place on December 11. On that day, Egypt, a close US ally in the Middle East, sent its deputy foreign minister on the first official visit to Iran by any Egyptian official, since relations between the two sides were terminated in after Khomeini’s revolution in 1980. The primary reason for the break in relations was Ayatollah Khomeini’s strong opposition to Anwar Sadat’s peace deal with Israel. The late Iranian leader hated Sadat so much, that he named a street in Tehran after Khaled Eslamboli, his assassin.
Since then, the two countries have only been represented by interest sections in each other’s capitals.
Just a day after that historic visit, Iran received its second post NIE accomplishment, in the form of a Saudi invitation to President Ahmadinejad to attend the Haj ritual in Mecca. This is an honor that has not been bestowed upon any Iranian president, ever.
The Saudis, who were seething at Iran and Ahmadinejad’s role in Iraq and Lebanon, suddenly seem to have taken a shine to him.
The timing of both events, and their message should not be lost on Western leaders. The important question which should be asked is: why do two close US allies feel comfortable enough to make such friendly gestures to Iran, and upgrade its status in the region, at a time when President Bush is trying to do the opposite?
The answer is simple, and important.
It is one thing when the IAEA gives Iran positive points for being “generally truthful about its past.” After all, many argue that the IAEA is a toothless bureaucratic organization, at the mercy of different governments and their political agendas.
But when the multi-billion dollar US intelligence machine declares Iran halted its nuclear weapons program back in 2003, then as far as many Middle Eastern countries are concerned, the “danger” label has been taken off Iran’s nuclear program.
Although many Sunni countries are worried about Tehran’s activities in Iraq and Lebanon, they were more worried about the prospects of war between Washington and Tehran. Now that this danger has dissipated, it is likely that even more countries in the region will decide to engage Iran, as means of influencing its strategy and behavior in the Middle East. This will make the job of imposing sanctions against Iran much more difficult than before.
It will also enable Iran to come out of regional isolation, thus ruining all the celebration that took place in Washington and Jerusalem following the Annapolis show of solidarity.
The third and possibly most important piece of good news Iran has received following the NIE report, came on Thursday 13th of December, when Sergei Shmatko, President of Russian government’s atomic export company (Atomstroiexport) announced that “We have resolved all the problems with the Iranians”. He went on to say “We have agreed with our Iranian colleagues a time frame for completing the plant and we will make an announcement at the end of December.”
These words were music to the ears of President Ahmadinejad. He made a tremendous effort to get Putin to say these words during the Russian president’s visit to Tehran on October 15, 2007.
But at that time, Putin resolutely refused. Back then, Russia was worried about a possible backlash from the international community which was suspicious about Iran’s nuclear program. Now it seems, thanks to the NIE report, times are changing. Moscow feels so comfortable and confident that it has to commit itself to do something which many Iranian officials had almost given up.
The initial post-NIE signs are not positive for those who believe that Iran’s nuclear program still remains a danger and that Iran should be isolated.
Nevertheless, there is some room for hope. Rapprochement with Iran could be used to increase the international community’s leverage over Tehran. And this could improve the position of pragmatists and moderates inside Iran, who have been calling for better relations with West.
Meanwhile, even though President Ahmadinejad seems to have found enough reason to gloat, he shouldn’t do it for too long. Now that the threat of war against Iran has decreased, the Iranian voter will have little patience for excuses from their president as to why he has not been able to fulfill his pre-election promise to improve Iran’s economy.
With 18 months to go before Iran’s next presidential elections, Ahmadinejad has two options. One is to invest serious time and effort to turn the economy around. The second is to use his time in Mecca to pray for a miracle, because if his fails to deliver his promises, that’s what it will take for him to win the next elections.
Meir Javedanfar is the co-author with Yossi Melman of “The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran - Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the State of Iran.” He runs Middle East Economic and Political Analysis (Meepas)
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11 Comments
Mory:The NIE report proves that Iran is right. The Americans have no reason to be hostile to Iran. It shows that diplomacy with iran is the only way!!
Dec 15, 2007 - 9:57 am Andy Rigrod:“The NIE report proves that Iran is right. The Americans have no reason to be hostile to Iran. It shows that diplomacy with iran is the only way!!”
Very impressive, Mory. Two explanation points. It sounded like you were kidding, but you must be serious. Whoa.
Dec 15, 2007 - 1:15 pm Bana:Perhaps this is true of the Osoulgaraian or hardliners of the Ahmadinejad/Messbah-Yazdi crowd but it is ENTIRELY not the case where the Khatami/Rafsanjani crowd are concerned. So far, last Monday, Hasan Rowhani who was Khatami Nukes negotiator with the E.U. Troika has admitted that though the program was halted during the Khatami days (which is why the regime’s dossier was not referred to the Security Council) has been overturned and that the regime IS in fact continuing the nukes development on the sly. AND as if that wasn’t enough, yesterday, the ex-commander of the IRGC, Mohsen Rezaii said that not only the NEI but also El Baradei’s report are lies and a ruse by the west.
Dec 15, 2007 - 1:52 pm John:SO if anything Mr. Javdanfar’s analysis though it can on the surface be construed as correct, there are SERIOUS underlying grumblings going on within the regime and this NEI has the pot stirring in a way that will step the quiet gangland style battles going on between the various Mullah factions. This report is WAY more damaging to the regime than the momentary sophmoric gloating that the clown Ahmadinejad has been doing. I wouldn’t be so quick to put the ball in the Mullahs’ court. Things are NEVER that shallow where the Mullahs are concerned.
When Iran churns out its first nuclear weapon in 2011, the CIA should be dismantled wholesale.
But of course that won’t happen because government burueaus only swell larger and larger, even under Republican administrations.
That’s why Bush’ first reaction in the wake of 911 was to nationalize airport security and roll out a new, uber-bureaucracy, Homeland Security, which has not made anyone more secure by a single scintilla.
Dec 15, 2007 - 1:58 pm apetra:Timid, flaccid, weak Leftists appointed by Carter and Clinton to CIA leadership may well be responsible for the destruction of Israel.
Bush’s retention of the Clinton CIA apparatus and leadership — largely as a gesture to “change the tone” — was his worst blunder, par none.
Dec 15, 2007 - 2:20 pm ThankyouCIA:“The Americans have no reason to be hostile to Iran. ”
Yup, Mory, no reason whatsoever. What have those loveable theocrats ever done to any Americans? “Love to the Great Satan”, etc.
Dec 15, 2007 - 3:43 pm Junk Science Skeptic:The Iranians have “not been pursuing nuclear weapons since 2003″ in about the same way that BJ Clinton did “not have sex with that woman.”
If one defines “nuclear weapons” strictly as ballistic missile warheads, similar to BJC’s definition of “sex” being strictly intercourse, then there’s a possibility the NIE may have some credibility.
But . . . Exactly what about modern Iranian history would cause anyone with a clue to believe that Iran would have the balls to engage in linear battle with missiles and such?
These people used a bunch of clueless college kids to assault our embassy, they used 10-12 year olds to fight in their war with Iraq, they fund proxy groups like hizzbullah and the insurgents in Iraq, why would they come out and fight like men when they have always hid behind their women and children?
When Iran tries to “wipe Israel off the map,” it won’t be with a theater ballistic missile carrying a nuclear warhead. It will be with several low-yield “dirty bombs” smuggled in to key locations in Israel and simultaneously detonated when and where they can kill the most people. Their “peaceful” nuclear enrichment program is more than capable of being used for hundreds of dirty bombs.
As usual, even the tiniest shred of context is more tha sufficient to discredit the leftist tripe that keeps coming out of the CIA.
Dec 15, 2007 - 3:57 pm harry:Looks like the doors are opening to the nuke club for Ahmadinejad and Iran. Yessiree Bob, the velvet ropes have been unbuckled and entrance to the world’s most exclusive club is just steps away. Ahmadinejad and his mad mullah posse will soon be boogying to the tunes of blackmail and subversion. Oh how Ahmaddy and the big eared monkeyman Chavez would love to see the US beg for mercy. The US means you and me folks. Whether it be Bush or Hillary we’d be treated just the same by these two, make no mistake. We will be paying dearly for oil soon. We should press our government to produce more American made oil but who will listen? The Dems should’ve jumped on this long ago but they’re in the pockets of tree hugging lobbyists (read leftists) who have more concern for the trees growing in the tundra than for you and I, and trees do not grow in the tundra. Time is running out for us now, not for madmen like Ahmadinejad. Thank you NIE.
Dec 15, 2007 - 8:34 pm mohsen:I think America needs to recognize the fact that Iran is no longer the danger. The US should be worried more about Pakistan. They are much more dangerous, and they do have nuclear weapons. I would like to know what the NIE says about them.
Dec 16, 2007 - 2:43 am chuck,:I have a horrible feeling that Iran and the US did a little deal behind the curtain. Iran would back off meddling in Iraq so the surge would appear to be sufficiently successful for the US to declare victory and depart– just in time for the 08 election. So no last chopper from the embassy rooftop. In return, the US would do nothing to prevent Iran from getting its nukes. The NIE is just a big fig leaf.
Dec 16, 2007 - 11:02 am narciso:The problem is that the NIE does not incorporate the Mousavian letter(Rouhani’s deputy, who was removed
Dec 16, 2007 - 3:38 pmand charged with espionage by Ahmadinejad; in the tradition of
Krasin and Stalin)letter to the
Ayatollah Khamenei, showing how
they had deceived the IAEA until 2005. It does not seriously consider
the findings of Jafarzadeh’s NCRI in particular regards to Natanz; never mind Arak, Bushehr & Isfahan.
The Asghari revelations should be as scrutinized as Ali Adwan (Curveball)’s have been, but they weren’t. Kappes the former deputy chief of base in the Iranian exile
stronghold in Frankfurt in 1988;
(that wa right around the time of Lockerbie and PAN AM 103)risen to
#2 with his anti Goss colleague
Michael Sulick won’t let that happen.