A Tale of Two Presidential Debates
VodkaPundit's Stephen Green drank his way through presidential debating Saturday evening until he thought he was seeing double. Then he realized that it wasn't the dirty martinis: both the Democrats and Republicans were going at it on the same night...
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After nearly four straight hours of presidential debating, George Stephanopoulos pointed out — complete with behind-the-scenes video — just how tired the candidates looked.
The irony of course is, coming after the big events in Iowa and immediately before the big vote in New Hampshire, the general public might finally be getting excited about these debates.
But the candidates (not to mention the pundits) are just plain tired. Yet, after an impossibly long warm-up period, we’re at long last getting into the most wide-open race since 1928. Fasten your seat belts, because we’re finally due for some fun.
But before we get to the meaty horse race analysis, let’s take a quick look at tonight’s highs and lows.
Low: Four straight hours of debate. That’s a lot to ask of any viewer, doubly so on a Saturday night. Weekend TV viewers are better programmed to deal with 30 minutes of The Golden Girls than 240 minutes of Charles Gibson.
High: Charles Gibson. He wasn’t the perfect moderator, but he did act like a moderator. For the first time, the debate wasn’t about the host, it was about the candidates, and their interactions with each other. Chris Matthews, Anderson Cooper and all the rest were not missed.
Low: The words “change” and “experience.” The next candidate to use them both in the same sentence should be forced to chew through their own forehead in punishment. Worst offender? Hillary Clinton, who forced me to ask during my drunkblog:
Did you know that Hillary has experience? Experience with change? Change that only her experience, her experience with change, can bring about? And that she’s a woman, a woman bringing change with her experience of womanness? Yeah, me neither.
High: Gibson asking tough questions about the viability of the surge - to the Democrats. Unexpected, but delightfully so.
Low: Frontrunners in general. Neither Clinton nor Mitt Romney nor Mike Huckabee exactly distinguished themselves tonight. Clinton needed to knock down Barack Obama and administer a killing blow to John Edwards. She accomplished neither. Romney needed to show that he deserved better than his second-place showing in Iowa, but didn’t. Huckabee needed to show his Iowa win was no fluke, but he looked like an also-ran.
High: Obama, for looking and sounding presidential. He still hasn’t said much, but more and more Obama knows how to make you feel comfortable with the idea of him as President. He’s fully developed that something that we call “presidential.” It’s not much of a high, but it was all he needed to prove himself tonight’s winner on the Democratic side.
Low: The Republican debate in almost its entirety. We’ve been through a dozens of these debates, it seems, and yet no one candidate has yet to emerge as a clear frontrunner. If you’re reminded at all of the 1988 Democrat “seven dwarves” race, it’s only because you’ve been paying attention.
High: I’m out of highs already. Other than Gibson and, to a lesser extent, Obama, there were no great performances tonight.
Now on to the meat — how does it all play out?
We’ll know more after New Hampshire voters have their say next week, but here’s how I see it.
On the Democratic side, Barack Obama is looking more and more like the real inevitable candidate. Over the course of the last few weeks, Clinton cracked under the twin pressures of Iowa and an increasingly-hostile media. And despite all his money, John Edwards doesn’t have much of a campaign outside of Iowa, where he’s virtually lived the last four years, and North Carolina, where his servants keep the giant mansion warm in case he ever deigns to return there. And so Obama has quietly and steadfastly become the Democratic frontrunner.
It remains to be seen, however, if the press will turn on him the way it turned on Clinton. To some extent, fair or not, Obama’s race will probably help shield him. But if Clinton can’t get her act together — and she’s had a couple months of trying and failing to do just that — and Edwards keep coming in second or third… then it won’t really matter how the press treats Obama. As things stand right now, the nomination might just be his already. (If I haven’t mentioned Bill Richardson, it’s because, well, why bother?)
The Republican side looks messier than a ten-car pile-up in the parking lot of a health clinic for hemophiliacs. The Iowa winner, Huckabee, is probably a sure loser in New Hampshire. Fred Thompson desperately needs a win anywhere, but it’s difficult to see where that win will come. I mean, would even a miracle second-place finish in NH boost him to first place in South Carolina, Nevada, or Michigan? Unlikely. John McCain seems poised to take New Hampshire, and big. But South Carolina was the end of him eight years ago, and doesn’t seem ready to propel him to the nomination this time around, either. Rudy Giuliani is counting on Florida to give him the momentum to sweep the big states on Super Duper Tuesday, but the string of losses he’s sure to suffer between now and then might just make him into yet another Forgotten Frontrunner. And Romney? As former governor of neighboring Massachusetts, NH voters should know Mitt well. And if they won’t go for him, who will? And as Iowa proved, Romney can’t buy his way to victory, not even with all his millions. Ron Paul, the guy who has the least chance of winning anywhere for anything, looks set to place a solid third in New Hampshire — thus muddying the waters even more.
Obviously, somebody has to break loose on the Republican side — but tonight’s debate gave little indication of who that man might be. Or, will the Republicans give the nation something we haven’t seen in decades — a brokered convention?
Now that would be exciting.
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24 Comments
PulSamsara:Nepotism does not = Experience.
and angry Clinton at last nights debate proved that.
If Hillary doesn’t like stinging responses… she shouldn’t bait people into confrontation (because Mark Penn tells her she has to to change the subject away from Obama momentum)
Barack Obama for President of the UNITED States of America.
Jan 5, 2008 - 11:41 pm sheryl:Mitt did the impossible, he used word “change” made is sound fresh with his ‘I lived change’ and made it into a great opening line for giving the audience a verbal resume. Very solid and done in a commanding way.
Winner tonight: Mitt, then Fred, with Rudy in a distant third. Loser: McCain - he really came off as very petty, mean and childish. And Huckabee. Did Mike Huckabee ever mentioned his record. Interesting omission.
Mitt was the center of everyone’s universe tonight and I don’t mean just in seating arrangements (but boy did fate deal that one right). He looked in charge, took all the jabs, flicked off McCain’s mean remarks a couple of times, got to talk a lot about his great ideas and got the last word in for the night. It was Mitt’s world tonight and everyone else was just supporting players.
Best quick answer: The pharmaceutical defense. I live in the Bay Area in CA and we love our Life Science industry out here so I think that will play very well here.
Best long answer: His whole discussion about Iraq’s “second phase”. It was very good. It showed deep knowledge about the roots of terrorism. It sounded like he has been talking to and/or reading moderate Muslim writers and thinkers. It was first rate. No one else talked about a plan to move beyond the war and move towards how to help bring a brighter future for our friends in the Muslim world. The only problem with his answer is that I wanted to hear more.
Jan 6, 2008 - 2:34 am Deagle:Agree that this was not only the best moderator but the best debate by far! I actually enjoyed watching both (and I usually can’t stand watching the Democrat debates).
Jan 6, 2008 - 3:27 am CaptDMO:NH has enough Libertarians, libertarians, Free Staters, and Declaration/Constitution writer descendants.
I’m calling Paul over Romney.
There’s also enough rich widows of retired business successes. I call
Jan 6, 2008 - 4:39 am Cardinals Nation:Clinton on the “It’s a woman” ticket.
Odds?
“John Edwards doesn’t have much of a campaign outside of Iowa, where he’s virtually lived the last four years, and South Carolina, where his servants keep the giant mansion warm in case he ever deigns to return there.”
Why would John Edwards’ servants keep a mansion in South Carolina warm for his return? Edwards is from North Carolina. Believe it or not, there’s a big difference between the two.
Jan 6, 2008 - 6:22 am Allison@PJM:Cardinals Nation,
Correction made, thanks for the catch.
Ah, the dangers of drinking and blogging!
Jan 6, 2008 - 6:39 am Dennis D:When the dust finally settles I truly think GOP voters will choose the original leader. Rudy Guiliani.
Jan 6, 2008 - 6:49 am Stephen Green:Cardinals,
Man, I was ‘faced last night.
Jan 6, 2008 - 7:49 am F:Richardson didn’t come across as anyone’s “second” last night. He went after everyone equally — apparently he hasn’t settled yet on who will be the nominee and who he has to suck up to in hopes of the vice-presidential nod. And for someone who is so high on diplomacy, he was decidedly un-diplomatic when he came on stage for the “shake hands with real Republicans” moment. Butter would not have melted in his hand when he extended it (ever so briefly) to the first Republican he met. Very cold. No mention of diplomacy either when he explained his “pull out immediately” process — just abandon Iraq after our extensive sacrifice. Try to negotiate better terms? No way, man — bug out now! F
Jan 6, 2008 - 8:35 am Grace:CAN YOU CHEW THROUGH CLEAN, FRESH FACE AND HOPE? I HAVE HAD ENOUGH OF THAT RHETORIC. GIVE ME A DIRTY OLD FACE WHO KNOWS HOW TO LEAD A COUNTRY THROUGH SOME VERY BAD TIMES COMING OUR WAY. GIVE ME RUDY, HE IS A LEADER AND COMES THROUGH ON ALL HIS PROMISES. BAGGAGE HE HAS, WHO DOESN’T AND WHO CARES..WISH YOU ALL KNEW WHAT HE DID WITH NEW YORK AND HOW HE TURNED IT AROUND…WE LAUGHED, BUT HE DID EVERYTHING HE PROMISED.
Jan 6, 2008 - 8:44 am Rahul:I’m surprised you didn’t mention Ron Paul when he pointed out that while oil prices went up some 300% + in dollars, they only went up 200% or so in euros, and stayed flat as measured in gold. That was easily the most insightful thing said in the debate - there’s a lot of us in business/finance that understand what he’s talking about, while no candidate from either party has a clue. To me, that was definitely one of the highs of the entire debate season, that a presidential candidate would explain one of the most serious policy/ financial disasters in our time with a simple example like that.
Jan 6, 2008 - 8:55 am AJK:The Dems were the Junior Varsity compared to the GOP. While Obama looked calmest, the point is that he STILL says nothing. Hillary is falling apart, and just b/c Edwards sounded passionate—which he did—is unimportant since he is wrong and a hypocrite. A vanishing middle class? 98% of the people I know ARE middle class! This is not the 1920s in Louisiana, John. Bill Richardson may have experience, but he’s arrogant and totally clueless. And as for “change,” a recent Pew Poll said upwards of 85% of Americans are happy, so why so much change? Changes in welfare, criminal justice, the media, political correctness and academia, sure, but overall, America is still the nation of envy for the world, no matter what the Dems and their media say.
Fred Thompson was very good last night. Should be interesting to see what happens now. McCain, though immature, was solid. Huckabee is going to fall fast and hard. He is a novice. Rudy is the best on the most important issue (terrorism), so that’s why I will likely support him. Romney gets picked on a lot. He’s a good man, a proven leader like Rudy. Ron Paul is a certifiable mental case, which is precisely why the Youth of America love him.
And yes, Gibson was good. Shows how AWFUL Matthews, Blitzer and especially the little baby, Anderson Cooper, are.
Jan 6, 2008 - 9:12 am Chester White:The MSM will not, under any circumstances, “turn” on Obama.
Please.
Jan 6, 2008 - 9:38 am Andrew:Was it Texas A&M that used to let a fan come on to the field and participate on the opening kickoff play of its football games?
That was the feeling I had watching Bill Richardson last night — that he was the lucky member of the Democratic party who had won a random drawing where the prize was a chance to sit on stage with the actual Presidential candidates.
Jan 6, 2008 - 9:49 am Richard Jansen:McCain’s trashing of the Pharmaceutical industry shows he has little understanding of free markets and the ultimate cost of regulating drug prices on research and innovation in pharmacology. Rudy is still my man
Jan 6, 2008 - 10:10 am MPinSC:Yuck. Would you have gotten away with posting this:
Did you know that Obama has hope? Hope with change? Change that only his hopefulness, his hopefulness about change, can bring about? And that he’s a black man, a black man bringing change with his experience of blackness? Yeah, me neither.
Jan 6, 2008 - 11:14 am Edmund Jenks (MAXINE):Embarrassment Of Riches vs. Riches Of Embarrassment
Pollster, Frank Luntz uses as his process to inform, polling “attitude registers” that use a rheostat dial mechanism observers move to indicate whether they feel “favorable” or “not favorable” to what they are witnessing.
After the debate, Frank Luntz processes the information gathered and then interviews the people who participated in the “attitude register” process.
One of the people Frank was interviewing about the just concluded Democrat debate, when asked who they felt “favorable” with and who would they vote for, responded that the choices of Richardson, Edwards, Obama, and Clinton presented all Democrats an “embarrassment of riches”.
At MAXINE, we wonder, what exactly are the riches one has to be embarrassed about?
What, in fact, do these candidates have to offer in terms of executive leadership in their background (save Governor Richardson who has low ratings) that would propel them to be observed as good leaders?
On the Republican side, voters in New Hampshire are leaning toward Senator John McCain over the recent winner of the Iowa Caucus, Governor (AK) Mike Huckabee, Governor (MA) Mitt Romney, and Mayor (NY) Rudy Giuliani … proven executive leaders all. Senator Fred Thompson and Congressman Ron Paul add to the debate but have little traction in New Hampshire and only match up in executive experience on a par with the Democrats.
One has to ask themselves, with the apparent favorability of politicians without direct executive experience in New Hampshire (as shown through the use of Frank Luntz’s “attitude registers”) what do we really suffer from … an embarrassment of riches or a riches of embarrassment?
Personality is winning out over the understanding of executive decision making processes … what are the citizens thinking?
If only we, the voting public, could actually feel a sense of embarrassment in our culture anymore.
This situation is about to cause me to go back to drinkin’ (it has been nearly 16 years).
Source Link:
Jan 6, 2008 - 11:37 am AJK:http://maxine-log.blogspot.com/2008/01/embarrassment-of-riches-vs-riches-of.html
To respond to others:
1) Ron Paul is very knowledgeable on economic and other matters. He is just left of all the Dems on the most important issue (terrorism), so he’s not getting elected. Paul is vehemently anti-american and anti-Israel, and for libertarians to support him is troubling—-and why the term “libertarian” is too extreme. You cannot have Larry Elder, Milton Friedman AND Ron Paul and Bill Maher all in your camp.
2. Nope, the MSM will never turn on Obama. Too much White Guilt, which is precisely why I said he had the nomination won the day he declared his candidacy. It’s a travesty.
Jan 6, 2008 - 1:14 pm Denny:I’m really starting to like Barry. Yep: gravitas seems to be engulfing him.
Hillary: please, someone, just push her to the side of the road. Oh, and Bill, too.
Jan 6, 2008 - 1:44 pm Denny:I’m really starting to like Barry. Yep: gravitas seems to be engulfing him.
Hillary: please, someone, just push her to the side of the road. Oh, and Bill, too.
Jan 6, 2008 - 1:45 pm Denny:To Edmund Jenks:
Correction: AK is Alaska; AR is Arkansas. (An issue I’ve dealt with more than once when telephone ordering from a lower 48 source.)
Jan 6, 2008 - 1:48 pm Denny:To Edmund Jenks:
Correction: AK is Alaska; AR is Arkansas. (An issue I’ve dealt with more than once when ordering via telephone from a lower 48 source.)
Jan 6, 2008 - 2:04 pm Edmund Jenks (MAXINE):Oopsie! - Thanks Denny.
Jan 6, 2008 - 3:01 pm Key:Mitt got owned like 10 times in the Saturday debate where huge chunks of the audience were laughing at him. How does this fact not get mentioned?!
Jan 7, 2008 - 3:03 am