Obama Wins South Carolina
PJM Roundup: After a hard-fought -- and, at times, ugly -- battle for South Carolina, Barack Obama emerged victorious over Hillary Clinton. Will his strong showing reshape the race for the Democratic nomination? The media and blogosphere weigh in. Kathryn Jean Lopez: Obama's inspiring victory speech shows how tough he will be to beat if he gets the nomination. NY Times: Obamalot? Caroline Kennedy endorses Barack Obama because he is "like my father." More at the jump...
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TalkLeft: Media’s Clinton Derangement Syndrome is rearing its head again.
The Trail: Fewer than 20 Hillary Clinton supporters show up at post-election event.
CNN’s Political Ticker: “Roughly 6 in 10 South Carolina Democratic primary voters said Bill Clinton’s campaigning was important in how they ultimately decided to vote, and of those voters, 48 percent went for Barack Obama while only 37 percent went for Hillary Clinton.”
David Freddoso: “The determining factor in how people voted was race. Not that this is a good thing.”
CNN: Live results
MSNBC: 68% of white voters think Clinton unfairly attacked Obama.
Fox News, ABC News project Obama to win
ABC News: Large Turnout Among Blacks, Women
Michael Graham: “It is possible Obama won’t win a single state after South Carolina. He could even lose his home state of Illinois.”
Fox News: “Barack Obama doesn’t just want to win the South Carolina primary. He wants to do it in such a way that proves he’s got broad appeal across lines of race, gender and economic status.”
TheState.com: “Good weather and an attractive slate of candidates have South Carolina Democrats expecting record turnout for today’s presidential primary, continuing a trend seen in other early-voting states.”
Politico: “With polls showing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton lagging behind Sen. Barack Obama here, the Clinton campaign is concentrating on competing hard in selected congressional districts in an effort to keep Obama from running up the score in Saturday’s primary.”
CNN: “Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama may be competing in the South Carolina Democratic Primary Saturday, but they’re also vying for the top prize in another contest: The Oppression Sweepstakes.”
SurveyUSA: “Last time 14 pollsters all told you that Barack Obama would win a Primary, all 14 were wrong. That was the day before New Hampshire, 18 days ago. History has an opportunity to repeat itself this weekend.”
Open Left: “All 9 pollsters working South Carolina have Obama ahead by 6-20 points. If Obama loses South Carolina to Clinton, the nomination fight is over and the polling community is in some serious trouble.”
Kevin Drum: “I don’t know if this year’s primary has really been an awful lot more heated than some in the past, but it sure has been more meme driven … The latest meme, of course, is that a few testy exchanges means that this is the roughest, toughest, meanest primary we’ve ever seen. Spare me.”
Pollster.com: Variation in results from different polls explained.
Political Arithmetik: Some polls have “an amazing undecided rate of 36%. That makes every candidate in their poll look lower than in all other polls that have a much lower rate of undecided.”
CBS: “Barack Obama is walking a tricky racial line, trying to excite black support in the South without getting tagged as “the black candidate” and scaring off anybody else.”
Politburo Diktat: How the white vote factor will play out.
NY Times: Candidates spent Friday trying to widen their appeal to groups outside their core group of allies.
Dick Morris: “How Clinton Will Win the Nomination by Losing S.C.”
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby: “Barack Obama has a 13-point lead on rival Hillary Clinton but his support has eroded slightly on the eve of South Carolina’s Democratic presidential primary … John Edwards gaining two points to climb to 21 percent and inch closer to second place.”
TheState.com: Edwards might be in striking distance for 2nd-place finish.
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5 Comments
Patrick Brown:The Reuters/CNN/Zogby story you link to says Obama’s support has eroded by two points and Edwards has increased by two points - but the poll margin of error is 3.4 points. That margin of error means that the poll result is an estimate of what is true in the populaton, that the true support for each candidate is “somewhere near” the poll result. The 3.4 points tells you the “worst case” of how far the true population value might be away from the poll result.
A change of 2 points from one poll to another is most likely due to the sampling process. It does not tell us that Obama’s support has “eroded” or Edwards’ support increased. Given a two point change in support for a candidate in a poll with a 3.4 point margin of error, all you can say is that there is no evidence of any change in the true population values.
Jan 26, 2008 - 8:07 am David Thomson:“That was the day before New Hampshire, 18 days ago. History has an opportunity to repeat itself this weekend.”
Nope, this is highly unlikely. There are a lot more black people in South Carolina! Barack Obama should have nothing to worry about.
Jan 26, 2008 - 11:23 am David Thomson:When will Hillary file the divorce papers? She was in serious trouble in Iowa. I personally thought Senator Clinton’s campaign was finished after that loss. The disaster in South Carolina, however, is the final straw. I thought that Obama might win by as much as 17%—but not 27%! This clobbering unofficially ends the Clinton era.
The Democrats have lived by the race card—and now will die by it. There is most assuredly more racism within the Democratic Party than in the GOP. Lower educated blacks, whites, and Hispanics perceive the world in zero sum terms. Barack Obama will get few votes from the latter two groups. And please don’t feel sorry for the Democrats. They did this to themselves.
Jan 26, 2008 - 6:40 pm Steve-o:Obama supporters of all colors are going to go nuts when Clinton wins the nomination by way of her bought-off Superdelegates. The Dem party will split asunder, and turnout will suffer in the general. It looks like another close general election.
Jan 26, 2008 - 10:47 pm harry:Lord, help us from the evil of Hillary and Bill. While Obama may not possess experience he is far more refreshing than the Clintons. It is beyond amazing how the Clintons remain a factor in modern US politics. Lies and deceit, a staple of Clintonian diet, is happily eaten by their delusional supporters. It’s easy to see through Clintonian selfishness. The lust for power and control. Those who hate Bush must understan the Clintons have him beat by a mile when it comes to greed. At least Bush deems to see America strong. The Clintons would abandon America like a soiled rag in their quest for glory.
Jan 27, 2008 - 9:40 pm