The new Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) Poll has, as usual, a lot of interesting information. (The real zinger to this piece, incidentally, is at the end.) The obvious stuff has already been reported in the mass press, so you know that Arnold Schwarzenegger is doing better with the public, people like that he is talking about “quality of life” issues, as the governor calls them, they’re for a big infrastructure bond, they are fine with his budget proposal, and so on. There’s no question that the new Team Schwarzenegger is doing much better. The U-boat is off the bottom of the ocean floor, beginning its ascent to the surface. But there is some cautionary information around this poll for the former action superstar, along with some other fascinating nuggets, with, as mentioned, the real zinger at the end.
A top Republican consultant notes that, while it’s good for the governor that his job approval numbers have gone up, from 33% to 40% among all Californians, and 38% to 45% among likely voters, “he’s nowhere near hitting his targets in key voter groups.” This is a significant problem, since he is a candidate with near universal name recognition running against candidates who have only a fraction of his recognizability. He’s also recovering while Democrats hold their fire against him. The only people attacking him are on the Republican right. There is no reason for me not to believe that, when the Democratic primary is over, the same Alliance for a Better California labor coalition that won last November, with strategist Gale Kaufman and company, will light up another murderous barrage against Schwarzenegger in the general election. Some other fascinating nuggets from the poll …
* 61% say they’d rather pay higher taxes and get more government services. 31% pick lower taxes and fewer government services. The hardy independent crowd hardly predominates. This isn’t Utah. Of course, the dirty little secret is that people are really quite willing to have others pay more so they can get more.
* Overwhelming support for Schwarzenegger’s idea of a Big Bang Bond, 68% to 23%. But nearly half favor education being the top priority in infrastructure spending, only a quarter picking the Arnold emphasisis on transportation. Could be because Kaufman and her education lobby allies are right, that more money for education was the real message of 2005. Or it could be that respondents found the question confusing. The question referred to “surface transportation;” some may not have been sure what that meant. While there is strong support for Schwarzenegger’s $25 billion bond for this year, there is even stronger support for a $10 billion bond, like that first proposed last year by Senate President Don Perata.
* Raising the minimum wage is a consensus issue in California. 81% support it; only 18% don’t. For all the criticism of Schwarzenegger coming from Republican ranks on this – try to find a Republican legislator who’s for it – 66% of Republicans support raising the minimum wage, making Arnold the mainstream California Republican on this issue.
* On the Iraq War and the Terror War, results to dash the hopes of the right and the left. Only 34% say it was worth going to war in Iraq; 62% now say no. Mission not accomplished. But in this blue state, a relatively low level of support for a favored activist issue, resisting a rollback of civil liberties. 50% of likely voters (including 41% of Democrats and 48% of independents) say it’s necessary to give up some civil liberties in order to fight terrorism in America; 46% say it’s not. Your lawyer is not here. Jack Bauer will be in shortly to ask you a few questions.
* The sleeper factoid in the poll, partisan identification. 42% say they are registered Democrats, 34% registered Republicans. But when asked which party they feel closer to, the numbers change. Badly for Republicans. 43% say they identify with Democrats; only 26% say Republicans. A sense of demoralization and dissatisfaction seems to have set in among nearly a quarter of Republican Party members. That can’t be good at the start of an election year.



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13 Comments
Ann:The last one is an omigod. What should Schwarzeneger do? Can he get better fast enough before the Democrats clobber him again? Who are those Republicans who don’t identify as Republicans? Are they conservatives? Are they moderates turned off by the prez and the special election?
Jan 29, 2006 - 12:22 pm Adam:Have they polled on how many would vote for a repeal of Prop 13, if it meant we
Jan 29, 2006 - 3:24 pm Bill Bradley:could properly fund our schools again? And how about a repeal of term limits and then a doing away with the initiative process altogether? I’d like to see some serious polling on all these issues.
I don’t know that there is a short answer to your question, Ann, or that I know it if there is. I also don’t know who those Republicans are. My guess is that this is a somewhat embarrassing time for many Republicans, with scandals and screwups turning people off.
Jan 29, 2006 - 5:56 pm Bill Bradley:I don’t think a repeal of Prop 13 can work. There is, however, polling showing that a change in Prop 13 might work, the so-called “split roll” in which residential property stays under Prop 13 protections and business property is taxed at a higher rate. I don’t recall the latest numbers, though, and recent efforts for a split roll have been withdrawn.
Repeal of term limits? No, I think that’s not going to fly. Changing term limits, maybe. Doing away with the initiative process? No, voters don’t want to do that. The PPIC actually did a big poll on this late last year. You should be able to find it at http://www.ppic.org/main/home.asp
Jan 29, 2006 - 6:03 pm Barbara:Amy Chance has an interesting piece in the Sac Bee today that sorta dovetails with some of the info/analysis you provided ..and I actually found myself nodding in agreement with this Bob Mulholland’s statement …
Jan 29, 2006 - 6:25 pm Bill Bradley:If you have timetake a look at the Chance piece…I would love to hear your take on it..
Um, in a sense. Great line by Mulholland. “Arnold’s not a leader, he’s a waiter.”
Jan 29, 2006 - 8:28 pm Barbara:Well I was pleased to see that he (Mr. M) can articlulate a coherent thought …that was not my impression from the one and only TV appearance I caught of him…Mr. South sounded a little…shall I say timid…I hope he is not gearing up for one of those political “make overs” he is going to have to fight like hell for his guy…I need him tough and dangerous at least until June …hopefully till Nov
Jan 29, 2006 - 9:00 pm Bill Bradley:Bob Mulholland is very smart. Garry South, oh, I don’t think you should worry about him becoming too mellow.
Jan 29, 2006 - 11:46 pm Ann:It sounds like Schwarzeneger can’t win, he can make the Demos lose.
Jan 30, 2006 - 12:46 am Barbara:Oh good …if you say he ’s smart …then he’s smart… and they are both a little dangerous, maybe even very dangerous …this will be wonderful…that’s my hellion side talking…Have a good day…
Jan 30, 2006 - 7:08 am Bill Bradley:Why do you think I called them both for first comment on the then unengaged Democratic primary fight?
Jan 30, 2006 - 10:08 am debt advice:debt advice…
Shiva time?Mussorgsky.anders cattleman student loan consolidation http://www.yours-debt-consolidation.com/ …
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Jul 6, 2006 - 5:15 am