** EVERYBODY KNOWS JERRY BROWN. Not to my surprise, but to the former governor’s quite evident delight, the new Field Poll shows that the only extremely well-known figure running for one of the OTHER statewide offices is Jerry Brown, the former two-term Governor of California, two-time runner-up for the Democratic presidential nomination, and two-term Mayor of Oakland. And that he is dominating the Democratic primary for state attorney general, leading his scrappy challenger, L.A. City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo, 59% to 18%. The only other figures who are quite well-known, though nowhere near Brown, are Attorney General Bill Lockyer (unopposed for the Democratic nomination for treasurer), and Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi and state Senator Tom McClintock, Democratic and Republican candidates, respectively, for lieutenant governor. The conservative McClintock has already assumed his role as Arnold Schwarzenegger’s running mate. Garamendi has to fight for the Democratic nod, and has a sizable but not yet decisive edge over state Senator Jackie Speier, who has raised more money than he.
Although a lightning rod of criticism since the 1970s, Jerry Brown has a still healthy in this contentious environment popularity level, with 45% of all likely voters viewing him favorably and 35% viewing him unfavorably. Governor Schwarzenegger, who has more than a fighting chance of being re-elected, would like to have those numbers. Tom McClintock has the best image score, i.e., favorable to unfavorable ratio. However, though I respect the senator, I have always been leery of his seeming popularity. He became famous for his Republican gubernatorial candidacy during the 2003 recall when it was in precisely no one’s political interest to attack him. (In fact, it was in a great many people’s interest to say what a great guy he was.)
The Democrats would not attack him because they wanted him to peel off enough votes from his fellow Republican Schwarzenegger to deny him victory. Arnold would not attack him because he didn’t want McClintock to attack him on, say, his budget “plan.” And because he wanted to train his fire on then Governor Gray Davis and Democratic replacement nominee Cruz Bustamante, the lieutenant governor, rather than be sidetracked into an internecine struggle with a smart man who would eventually figure out he could not win the election himself and would then act accordingly. Which is exactly how it played out.
** A PROMINENT FRIEND OF ANGELO TSAKOPOULOS called me today to say that Westly chief strategist Garry South is going to be “a great fundraiser for (Democratic gubernatorial candidate) Phil Angelides.” How so? Because South, a notorious hardball player, sent a “threatening e-mail” to Steve Churchwell, treasurer for the new independent expenditure campaign on behalf of Angelides. The pithy missive, says the Angelo friend, instructed Churchwell, a former general counsel for the Fair Political Practices Commission, to “tell Angelo he’s in for a rough road.”
I’ve called Garry South for comment on this but have not spoken to him yet.
What is the problem with this, you might wonder, does Tsakopoulos imagine that he will not become a political lightning rod if he intervenes in the election backing an arguably independent campaign on behalf of his decades-long protege and business partner?
No, says his friend, that is not it. The South e-mail is viewed as an open-ended threat to use the power of the Westly governorship, should it come to pass, to mess with Tsakopoulos projects. “Angelo and his family and friends weren’t sure how much they were going to do,” says the Tsakopoulos friend, “but when Garry South sent that e-mail yesterday morning after your column appeared they all read it and thought about it and decided to take up the challenge in a big way.”
4:30 PM UPDATE: Finally reached for comment, South denied that the e-mail was a threat to use state power against one of California’s biggest developers. “I am just telling him the obvious,” says the engineer of Gray Davis’s two gubernatorial election victories. “If he and his friends come in to rescue the candidacy of a man — who he still pays hundreds of thousands of dollars a year — under the guise of a quote ‘independent’ close quote campaign, he should expect a very bright spotlight on him and his associates and his partnership with Phil Angelides.”
EXPECT A FULL RUNDOWN ON THIS ITEM TOMORROW AM.
** ARNOLD RESEARCHES WESTLY AND ANGELIDES. An associate of Governor Schwarzenegger today shared some information on their research into public impressions of Democratic candidates Steve Westly and Phil Angelides. Arnold’s people are doing polling and focus groups. As you’ll notice, there’s a new emphasis on Westly.
“Neither one has made much if any impression on most voters,” says the Arnista. “They don’t know which one was on the city council, which one has the daughters.” (Actually, neither was on a city council — although Angelides lost Sacramento city council races in 1973 and 1977 — and Angelides has the three daughters.) “Westly hasn’t burned in a real impression yet with all his TV. The Democratic primary isn’t over although Westly is definitely ahead now.”
What about views of the former action superstar? “Everybody knows him,” says the Arnista. “Most like him, although he’s more controversial than we might want, many want to be on his side. They think he’s fighting to reform a broken system. Okay, you’re right, it hasn’t been a perfect fight but he has been consistent from the recall on. Most of them still see him as separate from that broken system, not inside of it.”
Schwarzenegger, he says, will run on that record. And speaking of records, “In every representation of his record that Steve Westly makes there are grotesque exaggerations. We are going to call him on that hard, if he gets that Democratic nomination. Westly has left no footprints in the snow” (using a phrase made famous by Bob Dole in his 1988 Republican primary campaign against the first President Bush).
Substantial grains of truth, with a large salting of spin. But it gives you a good idea of where they are coming from, and where they are going.
** THERE IS ANOTHER IMPORTANT NEWSBREAK COMING ON THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR OF CALIFORNIA, Friday AM.
Digg This
del.icio.us
PJM Home
22 Comments
1. V. Beirko:A week ago, this campaign was like this season of “Alias.” I wanted it to be good, but it disappointed. Now, it’s reaching “24″ level.
I can’t wait to find out more!
Apr 20, 2006 - 4:22 pm 2. Barbara:“tell Angelo he’s in for a rough road.”
Mr. Bradley you are just full of tidbits today!
A bunch of men have described that phrase as “threatening” …Oh come on! when you say something like that you mean the person is going to have a “bumpy ride” i.e., you going to give them a difficult time…my mother was always shaking her finger at me warning me if you don’t do this or if you don’t do that “you are in for a rough road ahead”…when she was really mad, she would follow it up with “who do you think you are Pricess Pat!” as if there was ever a “Princess Pat”!
I find it hard to believe that a smart, tough, successful self made man like Angelo was really rattled by that phrase!…I am sure he factored in the lightening rod aspect but his friendship with Phil trumped it…
So Churchwell is the lawyer for the new independent expenditure AND a former general counsel to the FPPC…I think that is funny!!!I can’t wait to see my girlfriends for dinner…
Apr 20, 2006 - 5:15 pm 3. Barbara:Let’s see… Ravi Mehta was FPPC Chair when Churchwell was general counsel…good to know the FPPC was in such ..what is the word I am looking for …professional ….professional hands…
such “professional” background makes him a great pick to head up this “independent expenditure”
Apr 20, 2006 - 6:28 pm 4. Hap Hazard:I wonder if there would be so much intrigue, alleged wrongdoing, and recrimination if it continued to be legal for a candidate to simply receive money from friends and supporters. That the law has made that a quasi-criminal act doesn’t speak very well about it.
Apr 20, 2006 - 7:36 pm 5. Kyle:Sounds to me like the Westly folks are pretty spooked about the IE. If it’s anywhere close to what Bradley’s reporting, this could make a huge difference in this race.
Apr 20, 2006 - 7:49 pm 6. James:KCRA played doormat to Arnold’s message today. Harsh words from Arnold on the lack of federal investment in levees. He even said the Feds are “irresponsible.” Not exactly a warm welcome for the President. KCRA reporter Kevin Riggs tosses a softball, “Are you a Bush Republican or your own Republican?” Arnold, of course, says he’s his own kind. The whole thing was too obvious on the triangulation, i.e. “It’s OK to hate Bush and still love Arnold.” Arnie’s angling for the center where Westly sits. Which is fine, but did Chan 3 have to serve up the free air time?
Apr 20, 2006 - 8:40 pm 7. Barbara:I think Arnold’s “message” is more theatre…or maybe it is payback for Ohio…or a little of both -the script: Arnold talks tough about the levees (because he reads Mr. Bradley he knows we are always complaining about how wishy-washy he is… I actually had another word for his behavior but I could tell Mr. Bradley did not like it …and you know how he is always saying this blog is not a democracy so now Arnold is Guv Wish- Washy) anyway, then Bush comes and says GUV “you are a powerful force for your state …I gonna go back and order Homeland Security to give you some emergency funds for these Levees.”..then Arnold will take the Pres for a Black Hawk spin over the levees on Earth Day…they both look good in their flight jackets ..it will be a great picture…
Apr 20, 2006 - 9:09 pm 8. Ann:The IE will make no difference in the campaign. The two unions they got are good soldiers going through the motions. Angelo Tsakopoulos and his family and friends are too self-absorbed and precious to see that their money can’t float a sinking ship. Only if they abandon the effort to sell an unsellable product and attack Westly all out will this scheme work.
Apr 20, 2006 - 9:56 pm 9. Hattie Caraway:I wonder if supporters of the Governor will contribute to this IE effort in an effort to shape the Democratic primary; not quite the way Gray Davis shaped the Republican primary in 2002, but nevertheless put their oar in the water on behalf of the Governor?
Apr 20, 2006 - 10:08 pm 10. Kyle:Bill, do you or one of your faithful readers know the history of IE’s in state races in California? Were they big in 98 or 2002? I seem to recall some stuff during the recall, but that wouldn’t count.
Apr 20, 2006 - 10:12 pm 11. Garry South:There’s an old saying in politics — that maybe big-time developers haven’t heard — but it goes like this: If you can’t stand the heat, get outta the kitchen! If you’re going to try to move in and play Big Foot in a campaign, you’re probably going to draw Big Attention to yourself.
Apr 20, 2006 - 11:05 pm 12. Bill Bradley:CCPOA, aka prison guards union, was the pioneer of the IE in California. Played major roles in governor’s races from ‘90 on, as well as other races at the legislative level and so on. They spent their own money.
Apr 20, 2006 - 11:42 pm 13. Kyle:Anne– what makes you so sure that the IE is going to try to sell Angelides? Isn’t it still possible that they’re going to go after Westly? Or have you seen something the rest of us haven’t?
Bill– Was CCPOA effective? Decisive? Did they support the winners or the losers?
Apr 21, 2006 - 12:19 am 14. Bill Bradley:CCPOA makes it a practice of going with winners.
Can you guess who they lean towards?
Apr 21, 2006 - 1:25 am 15. Amber:Gary South went Suge Knight on Angelo Tsakopolous! What’s wrong with a rich guy buying TV ads anyway? Here’s the deal, once those commercials hit the airways all of the scrutiny from South can’t match the millions in ad buys. South must feel that his best chance to avoid the impact of the commercials is to try and stop them altogether. By drawing attention to a member of the funding source, South hopes to derail the whole thing. Does anyone think that this strategy could backfire? I’m sure Westly, with his self-funded campaign would prefer not draw attention to campaign finance issues. The “Suge” email seems a bit desperate. These commercials are going to come no matter what. As the saying goes…”desperate campaign advisors do desperate things.”
Apr 21, 2006 - 1:48 am 16. Bill Bradley:Why not?
>I’m sure Westly, with his self-funded campaign would prefer not draw attention to campaign finance issues.
Apr 21, 2006 - 5:37 am 17. kyle:Amber must be referring to Westly’s self-financing. I know you reported that his fund-raising has picked up, but I still think he must be deep into his own funds by now. I’m surprised that hasn’t been mentioned more often, given the track record of self-funded candidates in California.
Apr 21, 2006 - 8:38 am 18. Bill Bradley:Are you not aware that this is ALWAYS mentioned about his campaign?
It is hardly controversial.
Apr 21, 2006 - 10:00 am 19. Ann:“Kyle,” I think we will defer to you on what the Angelides campaigns are going to do. If they know yet, that is.
Apr 21, 2006 - 10:28 am 20. Ann:Whatever did happen to “Eli Jacks?” He/she has disappeared with the advent of the new rule about single purpose spinners.
I am soooo surprised.
Apr 21, 2006 - 10:29 am 21. Gary:“Everybody knows him,” says the Arnista. “Most like him, although he’s more controversial than we might want, many want to be on his side. They think he’s fighting to reform a broken system. Okay, you’re right, it hasn’t been a perfect fight but he has been consistent from the recall on. Most of them still see him as separate from that broken system, not inside of it.”
What kind of BS tripe is this? “Many want to be on his side?” (vomit noises) “Fighting to reform a broken system?” His freakin’ allies are the cause of the broken system!! How dumb to these guys think California’s voters are? (Pretty dumb it would seem)
Apr 21, 2006 - 1:02 pm 22. Bill Bradley:Spin can be very informative in its way.
Apr 21, 2006 - 1:58 pm