The death of Turkmenistan’s dictator, an ex-Soviet bureaucrat who named the month of January after himself, is another aspect of the brewing crisis in strategically key post-Soviet Central Asia (BBC).
** AN OBVIOUS “DISCOVERY” MISSES A CRISIS. While some on the right fulminate about the capture of a few Iranian operatives in Iraq, most everyone misses the brewing crisis in Central Asia. Which is merely key to the US effort in Afghanistan, not to mention global energy markets.
Iranians operating in Iraq. Imagine that. Of course they are in Iraq. They’ve been operating there for many years, building powerful networks among the majority Shiite population. President George W. Bush met with one of Iran’s chief allies in Iraqi politics a few weeks ago. They helped the US effort in invading Iraq and toppling Saddam Hussein, after providing even greater help in the US takedown of Afghanistan’s Taliban regime and disruption and dispersal of Al Qaeda. Iran wanted the Taliban ousted, they were ousted. Iran wanted Saddam ousted, he was ousted. Iran has served its strategic interests, and continues to do so. It’s central to any settlement of the crisis in Iraq, as the Iraqi politicians who journeyed to Tehran for summits recently are obviously only too well aware.
Meanwhile, the US victory in Afghanistan is in danger of reversal, as previously discussed. Lest we forget, the war was begun in order to find and punish the perpetrators of 9/11. More than five years later, the top leaders of Al Qaeda continue to elude us. Their likely safe havens in Pakistan remain safe. Their allies in Afghanistan are making a comeback.
The US moved into post-Soviet Central Asia in the immediate wake of 9/11, establishing bases with the support of Russia, which has remained relatively friendly with its five former Soviet socialist republics there: Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Borat’s purported home, Kazakhstan. Last year, the US lost its base in Uzbekistan supporting operations in Afghanistan, leaving only the air base in Kyrgyzstan.
Unlike Eastern Europe after the fall of the Soviet Union, Central Asia never underwent a tumultuous transition of leadership. The five former Soviet republics-turned-new countries went on to be run by former Soviet bureaucrats, remaking themselves in nationalist images.
Kyrgyzstan is in crisis, as previously discussed on NWN, its increasingly chaotic government united on few points, one of which is its anger about the US base outside its capital city of Bishkek. But it has at least undergone a political transition, ousting its Soviet legacy leader, who is now a math professor in Moscow.
Now Turkmenistan, one of the world’s greatest natural gas producers, is undergoing political transition following the death of its notorious dictator. His deputy premier, who does not appear to be a strong leader, is in charge for now and may win elections set for early next year. But the real jockeying is for power from the outside. Russia needs to maintain its hold over Turkmemistan’s vast gas reserves, which fuel its country and which it sells for great profit to Europe. It will need to fend off the interests of neighboring Iran, which also sees great opportunity. This also, as previously discussed, creates a fascinating new dynamic, in that Russia has helped Iran and served as a back channel to Iran.
It’s a process likely to play out across the region, as leadership changes in other countries occur. Kazakhstan is particularly key, given its even greater energy reserves. It’s actually not at all the incredibly backward place depicted in the Borat movie and skits. That’s a totally fictional comic amalgam. The character himself is based on a Russian doctor he met, according to Sacha Baron Cohen, the creator and actor. His home village is actually in Romania. And so on.
In addition to Russia and Iran, China, the European Union, and the US have major interests at play in the region. Let’s see if we can get a handle on the future there — and preserve our base there as we seek to revive our fortunes in Afghanistan — and seem less surprised by discovering the obvious about Iran and Iraq.
** U.S. TO LIST POLAR BEAR AS THREATENED SPECIES. According to the Washington Post, the U.S. Department of the Interior will propose that the polar bear be listed as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act. Polar bears depend upon sea ice, and that has been receding dramatically in the greenhouse era. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service experts say that polar bears have begun resorting to open sea swimming and even in some instances cannibalism in order to survive, though their possible extinction is viewed as decades away. The federal government has been under intense pressure on this from environmental groups such as the Natural Resources Defense Council and Greenpeace.
But, you know, it’s okay, because no matter what happens we can always enjoy those great, heartwarming polar bear computer animations in the Coca Cola commercials.
** CONAN THE GREEN. Over Christmas weekend, the Washington Post published a front page story on Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger as the leading environmentalist Republican, championing efforts to control greenhouse gases. In it, he sounds themes very familiar to NWN readers, and completely consistent with my discussions with him in 2002 and 2003 before he became governor, much less pushed the big renewable energy and global warming programs of this year.
Schwarzenegger says that he will push to make climate change a major issue in the 2008 presidential election. “We want to put the spotlight on this issue in America. It has to become a debate in the presidential election. It has to become an issue.”
He calls himself a “sane Republican,” noting that he can’t be stereotyped as many pro-environment politicians have been as “the tree hugger, the crazy guy out there who wants to live on the moon and talk about the spirits and all this holistic stuff.”
“With me they can’t do it, because my whole history is different. It’s unexpected, so therefore you have a better chance to have an impact.”
** SCHWARZENEGGER’S HIGHLY-RATED SPEECH. As he contemplates next months’ State of the State address, snug in his hospital bed, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger can take satisfaction in last January’s State of the State address, which a PR expert has rated one of the best speeches of the year. It merely apologized for past mistakes and positioned him for this year’s dramatic comeback. The worst speeches were more off the cuff affairs, by Mel Gibson, Michael Richards, and outgoing Virginia Senator George “Macacca” Allen.
** GERALD FORD PASSES. Former President Gerald Ford has died at the age of 93. After retiring, he lived for many years in California, in the Palm Springs area. It would be hard to say that his presidency was especially distinguished, but he restored a sense of decency to a politics traumatized by the Watergate scandal and forced resignation in 1974 of California’s first president, Richard Nixon. Ford, of course, became vice president when Nixon’s first vice president, Spiro Agnew, was forced to resign in the midst of a corruption scandal. Ford then became president upon Nixon’s resignation. The longtime Republican leader in the U.S. House of Representatives, Ford was an amiable man, a star athlete at the University of Michgian. It was his fate in presidential politics to be a transitional figure. The U.S. defeat in and withdrawal from Vietnam was finalized during his presidency, which ended following his defeat by Democrat Jimmy Carter in November 1976.
** Monitor computer memory prices on a daily basis. Prices are stable.
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices have dropped to around $60 per barrel on forecasts of warmer than usual weather in much of the US.
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Jonas Blane:The right wingers are idiots about this stuff.
Dec 27, 2006 - 7:22 am Ann:Don’t be conned by neocons, they have no clue. Every time their ideas fail, they try somewhere else.
Dec 27, 2006 - 7:41 am Kurt:Too bad the neocons are disrupting the progressive’s one-world-order. The dominos of control appear to be falling and now that they are in charge they will actually have to do something. Trans-fat anyone?
Dec 27, 2006 - 8:14 am Bill Bradley:Huh?
Dec 27, 2006 - 8:23 am Ann:Don’t try to figure it out, there’s nothing there.
Dec 27, 2006 - 8:27 am Sullihan:So when will he trade in his Hummer?
Dec 27, 2006 - 8:27 am Bill Bradley:Which one?
Incidentally, you’re not under the impression he drives himself, are you?
Dec 27, 2006 - 8:33 am Sullihan:I wrote in haste. Arnold is on the right track, and the GOP should (and I think will) learn from his example. The perception of an insufficient concern for environmental issues will be hazardous to your political health.
Dec 27, 2006 - 9:03 am Sullihan:Best Gerald Ford story was told by Tip O’Neill who said that while playing a round of golf with Ford a year before he became VP, Ford confided to O’Neill that he wanted to retire after one more term in Congress but could only afford to if Tip could help to push through legislation to boost his pension. Only in today’s environment is it necessary to add that the Democratic Majority Leader agreed to help the GOP Minority Leader.
Dec 27, 2006 - 9:17 am Bill Bradley:It’s a legitimate question, though increasingly moot. I think he got rid of some of them, converted one or a couple of them. I’ve lost track. I think his having been a Hummer fan makes his point, that it gives him an edge on the issue he wouldn’t otherwise have.
Dec 27, 2006 - 9:17 am Ann:That sounds like the kind of bipartisanship they’d love in the Building. lol
Dec 27, 2006 - 9:34 am Bill Bradley:Incidentally, NWN passed the 20,000 comments mark last week.
Dec 27, 2006 - 9:40 am Sacramento Solon:Bill,
Congrats on 20K. Guess that amounts to about 10K for you and Barbara and 10K for the rest of us.
Dec 27, 2006 - 10:30 am Bill Bradley:Well, I do have to keep responding to people who want attention. Whomever they might be.
Dec 27, 2006 - 10:33 am Barbara:The total doesn’t include the thousands of posts deleted from attacks, flame wars, organized swarmings to influence the “media narrative,” etc.
Working with people from Kazakhstan (in Israel) was my first job out of college so central Asia as the Middle East has always held a certain fascination and interest to me…It is shameful considering the energy security interests and the instability in this region for decades that the average American has no idea where these countries are…if you do a search in NYT, Wa Post even the WSJ you do not find much info…you have to read British publications to get any real analysis …so I am very thankful you are writing about this….
At least unlike Niyazov who was brutal Stalinist figure in Turkmenistan, Nazarbayev, of Kazakhstan deserves some praise for maintaining ethnic harmony among some 15 million people of some 130 ethnic groups and I recently read that he has begun making some speeches in Kazakh. But the demographics have changed enormously in the last 20 years…there was some parity in the population between Russians and Kazakhs in population in the late 1980’s but now it is estimated at 59 % K to some 26 % R…..There has always been a nationalist movement simmering, but now that nationalist movement is getting a boost by both the demographics and the oil resources….most importantly the people of Kazakhstan want their language back…at least Nazarbayev understands that. The language was originally an Arabic letters was changed to Latin then Cyrillic (Russian) script and now back to Latin …this will eventually kill the Russian language there…
This turmoil looks to be both anti -America and Russian …which means this is fertile ground for Iran to make mischief all over the place…In any event our new Sec of Defense has to stand firm against any advice from the neo-cons in Bush Admin or their think tanks and at PJ Media!…. most of Europe and Russia with heir very cold winters need stability here -if they will be able to heat their homes and cook next year at this time …it seems to me from just a layman’s reading that Iran is stretched in many ways that could possibly make her vulnerable and more open to discussions….this administration is making the world more difficult not less…there appears to be not one creative mind there!
Sac Solon …I do post a lot but only here unlike others who run around wasting their time being “anonymous” on other blogs…I learn a lot from Mr. Bradley and from time to time others here, and I love Tommy Boy’s links! and while I am not has politically clever and connected has all of you…at least I am adorable, actually very adorable, and sweet!
Dec 27, 2006 - 10:55 am Sacramento Solon:Barbara,
You forgot to mention timid, shy and humble. Very humble!
And I hope you realize that it’s a very big smile at the end of the above. Very big.
What’s the haps with Old Soul?
Dec 27, 2006 - 10:59 am Barbara:Sac Solon:You forgot to mention timid, shy and humble
why would I mention timid & shy when I am not and I am only humble before God…
yes I knew there was a big smile…from you …you are a NWN goo soul!
in re; to Old Soul Bakery…I don’t know …i was out of town most of last weekend …and also this weekend …so don’t have time to check but I am counting on the guys opening for second sat in jan with an art display and to update us…
Dec 27, 2006 - 11:08 am Jonathan Hemlock:Neoconservatives appear to suffer from a form of tunnel vision, and an odd form, at that. Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11, yet that was their target all along after 9/11, as before. We removed Hussein, unwittingly doing the bidding of Iran, now blame Iran for the problems of a bad plan in Iraq. It’s rather batty, at that.
Dec 27, 2006 - 12:11 pm Barbara:Arnold is very busy in that hospital bed! Just read about his Budget -Research and Innovation Initiative proposes :”$95 million to fund major projects to grow California’s economic strength in key innovation sectors including “clean” technologies, biotechnology and nanotechnology” including building a a new energy/nanotechnology research building for the “Helios Project”.
I am so happy he is kick starting Nano research in a big way!
Arnold does not appear to be heavily sedated as a certain someone asserted he would be. He is working and He is JUST FINE! and thinking very clearheaded and visionary about nanotechnology!
Dec 27, 2006 - 12:22 pm Bill Bradley:Well, actually, Arnold was not on that conference call, which ended about 20 minutes ago.
Dec 27, 2006 - 12:27 pm Barbara:well not sure what you are talking about but maybe he was busy regaling his nurses with funny stories and they were sneaking him a cigar….so he could not be bothered! so tell us what you are talking about!
Dec 27, 2006 - 12:35 pm Bill Bradley:A conference call with academic honchos unveiling the high tech research initiative.
Dec 27, 2006 - 12:41 pm Barbara:“A conference call…”
This is big…very big …big thinking, big news…he deserves to be taken very seriously….as a leader…he is becoming a first class one
Hemlock …No neo-cons suffer from something much worse than tunnel vision…and then there is a monetary incentive … some of them are and have made a lot of money off of what they do…and have done in the past.
Dec 27, 2006 - 12:54 pm Capitol Boy:Thanks for answering what Schwarzenegger and polar bears have in common.
Dec 27, 2006 - 2:06 pm Barbara:Mr Bradley!
My c-span google alerts came for today and tomorrow and ther ewas no John Edwards prez announcement list for tomorrow ! So I got really worried …so I googled him and look what came up!:
John Edwards has made a major announcement. The former Democratic nominee for vice president says he’s running for president for a second time.
“The announcement came by accident when campaign staffers accidentally activated his campaign web site today. “Cbs news
I hope those staffers know what they are doing! This is not going to be easy! and I better get into that Town Hall or I am going to e-mail him that he needs a new campaign staff!
Dec 27, 2006 - 2:09 pm Bill Bradley:Yes, you have to be careful what you put on the Net, even if only temporarily.
I was programming holiday videos for Christmas and New Year’s at the end of last week, seeing how they played in the NWN environment, testing captions and so forth, then unpublished them all, saving them for the right days.
Then I discovered they’d been captured on a well-known aggregator service. Oops!
Dec 27, 2006 - 2:20 pm Barbara:Well, I read he is still doing the formal announcement tomorrow…but it is a bit stagey anti climatic now …this was a screw up…and some of those town halls are back to back …he is coming to reno on the same day as doing one in NH!…oh well he is high energy like Antonio!…I hope he has good people around him…
Dec 27, 2006 - 2:30 pm Bill Bradley:Not really. Everyone knows Edwards has been running for president all year.
Dec 27, 2006 - 2:32 pm Barbara:true…and the news is all Ford …so no one will really focus I guess on it until tomorrow…
On Ford …I must say you get a very good history lesson everytime a former President dies…I have no political memories of his presidency …so some of this has been interesting …especially the Rumsfeld-Cheney-Bush sr-Rockefeller connections…
Dec 27, 2006 - 2:38 pm carole w:I knew becasue I read it here on the best Political blog in California. That is why you are here Bill and we say thank you by bugging you.
Dec 27, 2006 - 2:43 pm Bill Bradley:The thing to know about that is this. Cheney worked for Rumsfeld, who was a rival of Bush I and maneuvered him into DCI to eliminate him as an electoral rival, the thinking that anybody who was director of the CIA would be unelectable for national office. Rumsfeld and Cheney worked to eviscerate Rockefeller as part of the move against liberal Republicans.
Dec 27, 2006 - 2:44 pm Barbara:It’s all very interesting …Some of that has been discussed including a letter by Rockefeller read in which he warned that Rumsfeld wanted to be President and was clearing the field by moving Bush 1 to CIA etc… this would make great political reading …did anyone ever write a book(s) about all this? …well you have to say about one thing about ..Bush 1 when he got there …after the jobs he held especially the CIA, he knew the keys to all the doors…unlike most who become president…and after Iran -Conra he knew to keep the neo-cons out of his White House
Dec 27, 2006 - 3:33 pm Ann:That is decades of scheming by Rumsfeld and Cheney.
Dec 27, 2006 - 4:31 pm Barbara:Mr. Bradley, remember how you once said that everyone in Schwarzworld read you during the campaign…doing you think anyone in Edwardsland is reading you too?
Because if they are, I a little suggestion. they should acknowledge receipt of a registration for the Town hall…I downloaded my ticket yesterday and I just e-mailed the hotel as to where exactly it will be and I received the following response:
“John Edwards will be in the Silver State 2-3 in the arcade level. You must have tickets and they can be picked up at either Ben & Jerry’s Scoop Shops and the tickets are free. Specific details can be obtained at http://www.JOHNEDWARDSEVENTS.com
well, there are no specific details at this site! they just ask you for you e-mail and zip code and tell you to print your ticket …now, do I have also go pick up another/different ticket at Ben and Jerry’s? …really! this is confusing! I hope they know what they are doing!
Dec 27, 2006 - 5:13 pm Bill Bradley:Don’t know. I’m allegedly on a holiday schedule.
Dec 27, 2006 - 5:29 pm Barbara:well I just hope his staffers have it together…and I am very disappointed in C-span not covering his announcement tomorrow …now I will just see a snippet in the news…I am going to dinner with the girls and I shall practice my “grumpy Chloe” look just in case some staffer jumps in front of me and says “sorry we are full” at the townhall! Toodles!
Dec 27, 2006 - 5:38 pm kandaharkid:I bet the Russkis get that country.
Dec 27, 2006 - 5:56 pm Jonathan Hemlock:Do you know something about neoconservatives and special financial interests, Barbara?
Dec 27, 2006 - 6:43 pm Bill Bradley:We will see. To all of the above.
Dec 27, 2006 - 10:09 pm jillian:Bill congrats on the 20K hits…that’s just awesome! I do like the math that SS used and agree with it…go figure…I’m sad at the passing of President Ford…he was a very good decent man who served all of us well…I remember that time and he was the right man for that time…I’m not speaking politically but personally…he was of the same generation as my Dad and they were truly genuine,good and special men….I wish we had more of them today
Dec 27, 2006 - 10:10 pm Bill Bradley:Thanks, but it’s comments, not hits. The number of hits is vastly more than that.
Dec 27, 2006 - 10:13 pm jillian:oops that was a major type I made sorry bout that….I wish all the problem children would leave you alone as it has to be a hassle to deal with..is there any software or anything that can help with that? You do so much to bring us all this wonderful info it’s just awful to have to deal with crazies too…oh I do think you and SS are genuine good and special men like my Dad was and I didn’t always agree with him either but I always respected his opinion…
Dec 27, 2006 - 10:38 pm Bill Bradley:Fortunately, I only have to be strictly serious here for one more day before the fun begins again.
Dec 27, 2006 - 11:08 pm Duke:We should dump Iraq and get al-Qaeda like the promise. All this junk about Iran and Israel and all is about them, not America.
Dec 27, 2006 - 11:24 pm jillian:lol BB you and strickly serious too funny….but I can’t wait for the fun to begin either….
Dec 27, 2006 - 11:25 pm Bill Bradley:Hard thought it may be to believe, I do get tired of writing. Soon it will be time to let the video take over.
Dec 27, 2006 - 11:48 pm Ann:Do you get tired of nothing going on but right wing bullshit?
Dec 27, 2006 - 11:57 pm Bill Bradley:What I get tired of encompasses a lot.
Dec 28, 2006 - 12:22 am jillian:Bill I can only imagine how hard that is…you do a great job and I know how appreciated it is….your videos tell quite a story too…I watch them first before I read what you’ve written….the headline reels me in always….Ann what rightwing bullshit are you referring to?
Dec 28, 2006 - 12:24 am Bill Bradley:Thanks, Jillian.
Dec 28, 2006 - 7:14 am