Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has opened a big lead in national polling
for the Republican presidential nomination.

** IRAN MAKES MORE DIPLOMATIC MOVES, EYING THE “WOUNDED TIGER.” In addition to the forthcoming multilateral talks with the US on stabilizing the Iraq crisis — they say they are deciding whether to participate, but you know they’ll be there — the Iranians are making a number of other moves. For one, Iran will reopen a number of embassies in Latin America. Which could also be a provocative move, providing operating facilities for the skilled Iranian intelligence service. Firebrand President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, under fire from multiple quarters at home on multiple fronts, will go to Saudi Arabia to discuss how the Shia power of Iran can work with the Sunni power of the Saudis, rather than be at crosspurposes, as they frequently are now.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, decidedly undead, has just criticized Ahmadinejad for being overly provocative, joining the resurgent former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the big winner in the recent elections for the religious oversight body called the national Assembly of Experts. Said Rafsanjani, a pragmatic conservative cleric who has frequently worked with Americans: “The Americans brought their troops with high spending to Iraq and Afghanistan. The only thing they did was to remove Iran’s enemies, Saddam Hussein and the Taliban. They are like a wounded tiger and we must not ignore this.”

** NUNEZ TO TESTIFY BEFORE U.S. SENATE ON CLIMATE CHANGE. Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, who authored California’s landmark climate change bill last year with former LA Assemblywoman Fran Pavley, testifies tomorrow morning on the plan before the U.S. Senate Committee on the Environment and Public Works, now chaired by California’s Senator Barbara Boxer. He’ll discuss the hybrid regulatory/market-oriented approach being developed to implement the rollback of greenhouse gas emissions in the world’s fifth largest economy. Nunez has recently spoken about the bill at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he got quite a lot of attention, especially in the absence of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, then unable to fly long distances due to his skiing mishap, as well as the National Conference of State Legislatures.

** HILLARY AND OBAMA TO GO HEAD TO HEAD SUNDAY IN SELMA, ALABAMA. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will speak simultaneously in black churches just a half block apart on this coming Sunday, the 42nd anniversary of the bloody and pivotal civil rights march in Selma, Alabama. Then they will join civil rights veterans and others for a commemorative march over Edmund Pettus Bridge. Hillary Clinton is the Democratic presidential frontrunner, and the Clinton Administration was very popular with African Americans. But the upstart Obama, despite his exotic background — son of a Kenyan Muslim father and a white woman, raised in Indonesia and Hawaii — that is outside the mainstream of the African American experience, is coming on fast. Clinton leads in the Southern primaries, but the black vote is very big, as much as 50% in the Alabama primary, which Jesse Jackson won in 1988.

** SAN FRANCISCO’S “BLOOD ALLEY” APPROACH TO GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE TO GET BIG BANG BONDS UPGRADE. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom announced that the state transportation commission has today adjusted its position on the allocation of the big infrastructure bonds package passed by California voters last November, and will provide major funding to upgrade the picturesque yet quite antiquated approach to the Golden Gate Bridge. Assemblyman Mark Leno also put out a statement, saying that he had been assured yesterday by the director of the state transportation department that the matter would be taken care of. In that vein, as it were, NWN was also assured yesterday by an advisor to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger that, at least in future years, your host will be less likely to die while driving toward the Golden Gate. Such a relief.

Newsom outlined the issue in his statement: Today the California Transportation Committee voted to approve in $405 million in SHOPP funds to rebuild Doyle Drive. The span – which is close to 70 years old – has never been upgraded to cope with increased traffic, comply with modern traffic safety standards, or deal with seismic vulnerabilities. Doyle Drive is considered to have the highest level of seismic vulnerability of any major bridge approach in the state.

Doyle Drive is also the only major bridge that has an approach with no median barrier to keep cars from getting into head-on collisions. Simulation models show that if Doyle Drive were to be shut down due to earthquake damage, traffic would be brought to a crawl on all other major Bay Area bridges and bridge approaches.

** MARKETS BEGIN TO STABILIZE. Shanghai, which started the global flu epidemic on stock markets, gained some earlier, leading to a mild recovery on the New York stock exchange today.

** REPUBLICANS WANT TO MOVE UP NEVADA PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUS. With the Bush White House noting the wave of attention accorded last week’s Nevada Democratic presidential forum in Carson City, Nevada Republicans are now looking to move up their caucus, too. Just not as soon as the Democrats, who will hold the second-in-the-nation contest next January 19th.

** MCCAIN BEEFS UP FINANCIALLY. John McCain, trailing in private polls for the California Republican presidential primary behind Rudy Giuliani, announced a roster of 70 Californians on his national and state financial committees. Five are national finance co-chairs: Former Ambassador to Spain George Argyros, a billionaire real estate figure indicted a few years ago in Orange County, Donald Bren, longtime California billionaire and Republican powerhouse controlling the Orange County-based Irvine Company, John Chambers, head of Silicon Valley power Cisco Systems, Jerry Perenchio, the billionaire media mogul who controlled Univision, and Gary Shansby, an investment manager who built the consumers goods powerhouse Shaklee Corp. Other familiar names on the list include former California Secretary of State Bill Jones, former Governor Deukmejian chief of staff Steve Merksamer, and Marty Wilson, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s fundraising overseer.

** CLINTON AND EDWARDS TO CALIFORNIA. Hillary Clinton and John Edwards will bring their presidential campaigns to California later this week.

** NEVADA DEMOCRATS NOT CAVING TO “NETROOTS.” It looks like that ballyhooed campaign by MoveOn.org and Daily Kos to force the Nevada Democratic Party to drop Fox News as it broadcast partner for the August Democratic presidential debate in Reno is not working.

** U.S. TO TALK WITH IRAN AND SYRIA ON IRAQ CRISIS.The US will formally engage in multilateral talks on settling the Iraq crisis in March and April with a number of nations in the Middle East, including two previously formally barred from talks with the US, Iran and Syria. Engagement with Iran and Syria on Iraq was one of the key recommendations of the Iraq Study Group, much excoriated by the right and officially shunned by the Bush Administration, although back channel contacts have been underway throughout, as reported on NWN. Secretary of State Condi Rice acknowledged the obvious, yesterday telling senators: “This is one of the key findings, of course, of the Iraq Study Group, and it is an important dimension that many in the Congress have brought to our attention. We’ve listened, and I want you to know that.”

** CLINTON’S LEAD OVER OBAMA DIMINISHES, GIULIANI’S LEAD OVER MCCAIN GROWS. The new ABC/Washington Post poll shows some major early developments in the presidential race. This new poll shows that Rudy Giuliani’s 7-point lead over John McCain, 34% to 27%, has tripled, and the former New York mayor now leads the Arizona senator by a better than 2 to 1 ratio, 44% to 21%. Hillary Clinton’s lead over Barack Obama has diminished to 12 points, due to a surge of support for Obama among African American Democrats. Clinton led last month, 41% to 17%. Now her lead over Obama is 36% to 24%. Al Gore, who says he is not running, has 14%, and John Edwards is at 13%. With Gore out of the mix, Clinton gains the most, leading Obama 43% to 27%, with Edwards at 14%.

On the Democratic side, Obama has been drawing unusually large crowds, including 20,000 people in Austin, Texas last Friday afternoon in the rain. He leads Clinton on the measure of who is most inspirational. She, however, leads on the question of who is most experienced, most electable, the strongest leader, closest to the respondent on issues, and identifying most with the respondent. Most Democrats think Clinton’s vote for the Iraq War was appropriate at the time. Only about 12% of Democratic primary voters think she should apologize, a constant refrain from partisan bloggers.

The sharpest change in the race is on the Republican side, where Giuliani has expanded tremendously and McCain has wilted. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has not said he’s running, is at 15% in the poll, with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, also wilting, at 4%. With Ginrich removed from the mix, Giuliani’s lead over McCain grows to a whopping 53% to 23%.

Giuliani is seen as the clear leader among Republicans as the strongest leader, most inspiring, and most electable. McCain has a slight edge as most experienced. McCain, who has been getting the brunt of the flak nationally for his role as leading supporter of the Iraq surge outside the White House, is hurt in the poll by his age, just as Romney is hurt by his religion, Mormonism.

** BILL RICHARDSON SAYS NO NEGATIVE CAMPAIGNING. Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, the Democratic presidential candidate and former ambassador to the United Nations and US energy secretary, yesterday renewed the call for a positive campaign pledge he issued last week at the Nevada presidential forum in Carson City.

** Monitor computer memory prices on a daily basis. Prices are stable.

** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices are in the $59 to $61 per barrel range, off of highs for the year to date on yesterday’s global stock market tumble, amidst some concern that a recession may be in the offing.

Canadian troops raid a Taliban compound at dawn in Afghanistan, video by
embedded journalist Scott Kesterson.

** PING PONGING AROUND THE WORLD. After the New York stock exchange followed the Chinese market in a plunge, the Nikkei average in Tokyo plunged over 700 points upon opening.

** TOUGH ON WELFARE. New West friend Mickey Kaus, a tough on welfare kind of guy — he wrote a book about it, after all — explains why Rudy Giuliani, who opposed the 1996 Bill Clinton tough love welfare reform bill he supported, is really tough on welfare, too. Tougher than Hillary Clinton, who actually also supported her husband’s welfare bill. Oooo … kay.

** TALIBAN EMBARRASS DICK CHENEY. The Taliban released a statement saying that today’s suicide bombing at the massive former Soviet Bagram air base in Afghanistan was targeted at Vice President Dick Cheney. The truth is, the bomber never really got close to Cheney. The earth-bound kamikaze detonated his explosives at the first checkpoint, a few concentric circles of security away from the VP. Nevertheless, the act caused Cheney to hurry into a bomb shelter, and caused a system-wide “red alert” on what is the largest military base in Central Asia. The attack also killed 23 members of coalition forces, including two Americans.

** SAN FRANCISCO’S “BLOOD ALLEY” APPROACH TO THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE NEEDS SOME BOND MONEY. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom held a press conference this morning at the former Army helicopter base in the Presidio to publicize the need for more Big Bang Bonds infrastructure money from the California Transportation Commission for safety improvements to the Doyle Drive approach to the Golden Gate Bridge. It’s very picturesque, it’s narrow, it’s from the 1950s, and it’s dangerous.

When LA officials screamed last week about insufficient funding coming from last year’s infrastructure package to deal with traffic congestion, they got some action. It didn’t hurt that the screaming was coming from Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s friends, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez and Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who were quite helpful to him in the election last year. Newsom, who played more of the Democratic game backing the ill-fated nominee, Phil Angelides, is friendly with the governor but not nearly so helpful. But the Doyle Drive problem is very real. I’ve driven it a lot heading to the Golden Gate, and it is dangerous. The governor doesn’t drive much in San Francisco, of course. In fact, he doesn’t drive much anywhere. So he doesn’t have the first hand experience. Hopefully, the message gets through.

** EARLY CALIFORNIA PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY MOVING FORWARD. The early California presidential primary moved forward through the process again yesterday, passing the state Assembly Appropriations Committee on an 11-5 party-line vote. After zipping throught the Senate earlier on a 31-5 vote with heavy bipartisan support, it’s slowed down some in the Assembly, where there is more opposition among the more conservative Assembly Republican Caucusc, which doesn’t like to spend money and fears various nefarious scenarios which might occur in the context of an early presidential primary. (Too numerous and arcane to go into in the course of a short item, though they are not uncredible.) But top Assembly Republican leaders tell NWN on background that the bill will pass.

** U.S. TO FORMALLY MEET WITH IRAN AND SYRIA AS PART OF REGIONAL STABILIZATION TALKS ON IRAQ. According to the Washington Post, and to no surprise here, given the many reports of “back channel” discussions passed on here on NWN, the US is slated to meet in March with Iran and Syria in the context of regional discussions to stabilize the mess in Iraq.

** MAIN U.S. BASE IN AFGHANISTAN ATTACKED DURING CHENEY VISIT. An apparent Taliban suicide bomber attacked the main US base in Afghanistan, the former Soviet Bagram air base, during a visit there by Vice President Dick Cheney, killing from 14 to 23 individuals, whose nationalities are not yet entirely known, or at least reported.

The resurgent Taliban chose an opportune moment, with the visit of Cheney, leading warhawk vis a vis Iraq and Iran in the US government, to remind that the swiftly achieved US victory in Afgthanistan is in danger of unraveling. Some Afghans are not unmindful of the fact that the US has actually won not one but two wars in Afghanistan in the last 20 years. The first being the war that may well have shattered the Soviet Union, the covert war successfullly rolling back the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Islamic jihadists are particularly loathe to acknowledge the central role of the US in defeating the Soviets in Afghanistan.

Cheney, who reportedly took little note of the massive deadly blast going off in his vicinity, served as US secretary of defense in the administration of the current president’s father but never wore the uniform himself, receiving a series of deferments and telling the Washington Post in 1989: “I had other priorities in the ’60s than military service.”

** Monitor computer memory prices on a daily basis. Prices are relatively stable.

** Track global and national energy prices on a near real time basis via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices are in the $59 to $60 per barrel range. Fears of an attack on Iran disrupting the oil markets have subsided, for the moment.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger took his nascent post-partisan politics tour to Washington for the National Governors Association conference and a lunchtime address to the National Press Club yesterday. But despite its appeal to emerging independent voters and increasingly disaffected Democrats and Republicans, can it fly in a very partisan environment poisoned by the back and forth on the mess in Iraq?

Schwarzenegger is nothing if not upbeat, and certainly was all that in his speech shown live yesterday on C-SPAN. “Last year in California,” he stated proudly, “in spite of it being an election year, we reformed prescription drug costs, passed the world’s most comprehensive plan to reduce greenhouse gases and began rebuilding the state’s infrastructure.  We did this working together.”

“But division,” he noted succinctly, “is what Washington has come to represent. For too long, this town has been about divide and conquer. Find an issue that splits the country in half, then crack it just enough so you can come out ahead. I get 51 percent, you get 49. I win, you lose.”

Schwarzenegger acknowledged that he had slid into the politics of division himself with his special election of 2005. The issues he chose were all legitimate — redistricting reform, campaign finance reform, budget control, teacher quality, public pension reform — but his solutions were off, both as programs and as presentation.

After sweeping to office in a landslide victory in the 2003 recall election, Schwarzenegger had a very popular, mostly centrist first year in office, then descended into a harsher form of partisanship, replete with name calling. Now, he notes, “You can disagree with your opponent and still maintain respect.”

“In the courtyard of the State Capitol,” he said, “I have a politically-incorrect smoking tent People come by, light up a stogie and schmooze. How come Republicans and Democrats out here don’t schmooze with each other?” 

“What is more principled,” he asked, “than giving up some part of your position to advance the greater good of the people?  That is how we arrived at a constitution in this country. Our Founding Fathers would still be meeting at the Holiday Inn in Philadelphia if they hadn’t compromised.”

Which leads to bipartisanship and post-partisanship.

“Post-partisanship,” Schwarzenegger said, “is not simply Republicans and Democrats each bringing proposals to the table and then working out differences. Post-partisanship is the new concept of Republicans and Democrats giving birth to new ideas together.”

In practice, however, the most right-wing Republicans and most left-wing Democrats aren’t playing in this scenario. And Schwarzenegger seems to acknowledge this, saying “I believe the political way forward is this: Look to the future. Look to the center. And look to the dreams of the people.”

Leaving the business about the dreams of the people aside, back at home in California, where his approval ratings are back up near the stratosphere, Schwarzenegger was being attacked yesterday from both the far right and the far left as he took his popular post-partisan message to the Beltway.

Way off to starboard, the Orange County Register blogs weighed in, denying the greenhouse effect and generally operating in what might be called full fulmination mode. “Everyone Should Just Ignore Arnold,” proclaimed columnist Steve Greenhut. Like that’s going to happen, right? The guy is one of the most famous and powerful men in the world. A small blog column is not going to change that. Reality. What a concept.

Meanwhile, way off to portside, the governor’s favorite stalkers, the California Nurses Association, are running radio ads around the state attacking him for not backing single-payer, government-run health care. They nailed him but good in the special election of 2005, after his infamous remark about “kicking the butts” of the special interests. Since then, however, with his return to the center, their efforts have been rather one-note and completely ineffectual. They pushed a single-payer health care bill last year, with few actual specifics involved, which Schwarzenegger promptly vetoed after they barely drew a few hundred people to a Capitol rally captured in its full glory in an NWN video. They turned a political reform initiative into an unending series of attacks on Schwarzenegger, operating as an auxiliary of the disastrous Phil Angelides campaign, contrary to earlier promises to go after both big parties’ excesses. The initiative failed with barely 20% of the vote.

Though it’s doubtful that these moves from the two opposite ends of the political spectrum will have much, if any, impact on Schwarzenegger, they do point up the resiliency of those views.

While he was being hit by the far left and the far right, Schwarzenegger and the governors of Oregon, Washington, Arizona, and New Mexico announced a Western regional program to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The formal memorandum of understanding commits the five states to develop over the next 6 months a regional target for greenhouse gas reduction and, over the next 18 months, to devise a market-based program to reach the target. The pact also commits the states to a multi-state registry to track greenhouse gas emissions in the West and to promote greentech.

“Western States are being particularly hard-hit by the effects of climate change,” noted Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano in a statement.

“This MOU sets the stage for a regional cap and trade program, which will provide a powerful framework for developing a national cap and trade program,” said Schwarzenegger. “This agreement shows the power of states to lead our nation addressing climate change.”

“With this agreement, states are once again taking the lead on combating global climate change - while Washington, D.C. sits on its hands,” said New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, the former ambassador to the UN, US secretary of energy, and a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination. “This historic agreement signals our commitment to tackling the problem head-on at the regional level and building on efforts in our individual states.”

Yet this agreement, too, points up some of the practical realities of post-partisan politics. The other Western governors involved are all Democrats, albeit center to center/left Democrats. While Schwarzenegger has succeeded in getting famous Republicans to speak out more on the climate change issue — such as New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, former New York Governor George Pataki (who wants to form an environmental coalition with Schwarzenegger), former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and Arizona Senator John McCain — they’re almost all Northeasterners. And McCain, a frontrunning presidential candidate known for maverick views, had, as usual, his own reasons for coming to his conclusions on the greenhouse effect.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, seen here signing California’s landmark
climate change bill, makes post-partisan moves on the national stage today.

** COURT OF APPEAL SIDES WITH STEM CELL RESEARCH ADVOCATES. The California 1st District Court of Appeal this afternoon decided against the opponents of California’s landmark stem cell research initiative, Proposition 71, passed by California’s voters in November 2004. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said this in a statement from Washington: “Today’s ruling is a victory - I always believed the courts would uphold the will of California voters. Stem cell research holds our best promise to find a cure for debilitating illnesses, like Parkinson’s disease and diabetes. I’m also proud of California’s leadership - we have already awarded the first round grants to researchers to begin work on this potentially life-saving science.”

** SCHWARZENEGGER HIT FROM FAR RIGHT AND FAR LEFT. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was hit from the far right and far left today as he took his post-partisan centrism message to Washington. Way off to starboard, the Orange County Register blogs weighed in, denying the greenhouse effect and generally operating in what might be called full fulmination mode.“Everyone Should Just Ignore Arnold,” proclaimed columnist Steve Greenhut. Like that’s going to happen, right? The guy is one of the most famous and powerful men in the world. A small blog column is not going to change that.

Greenhut quoted right-wing fave Tom McClintock, a four-time loser in bids for statewide office, saying he’s never going to believe Schwarzenegger again. The governor’s erstwhile running mate believed Schwarzenegger when the then new governor, countermanding the advice of his Pete Wilson advisors of the time, who view McClintock as an unremitting pain in the ass, intervened to help the state senator stave off defeat in his re-election bid by raising badly needed money McClintock could never raise on his own.

Meanwhile, way off to portside, the governor’s favorite stalkers, the California Nurses Association, are running radio ads around the state attacking him for not backing singel-payer, government-run health care. They nailed him but good in the special election of 2005, after his infamous remark about “kicking the butts” of the special interests. Since then, however, with his return to the center, their efforts have been rather one-note. They pushed a single-payer health care bill, with few actual specifics involved, which Schwarzenegger promptly vetoed after they barely drew a few hundred people to a Capitol rally captured in its full glory in an NWN video. They turned a political reform initiative into an unending series of attacks on Schwarzenegger, contrary to earlier promises to go after both big political parties’ excesses. The initiative failed with barely 20% of the vote.

** MICHAEL BOSKIN AS GIULIANI’S TOP ECONOMIC ADVISOR. Tapping another big-name conservative from California, Rudy Giuliani’s presidential campaign today announced that Michael Boskin is now on board as senior policy advisor and as “Mayor Giuliani’s lead advisor on all economic matters.”

Boskin, now a senior fellow at the conservative Hoover Institution at Stanford, was chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors during the first Bush Administration. A product of the University of California at Berkeley, Boskin now serves on the boards of directors of software giant Oracle Corp. and the world’s largest oil company, Exxon Mobil.

Exxon Mobil is a somewhat controversial company, as you may have heard.

** REDISTRICTING REFORM UPDATE. California Common Cause’s Ned Wigglesworth says the group is not submitting a redistricting reform initiative today to the Attorney General’s office, but that attorney Barry Fadem probably is. Common Cause was part of the discussions around the initiative.

** MORE BRITS TO AFGHANISTAN. The British government has announced it is sending another 1400 troops to Afghanistan, on top of 800 more announced a few weeks ago. The additional announcment is nearly the number announced last week as the first part of a British withdrawal from Iraq. Soon, for the first time since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, there will be more British troops, 7700, in Afghanistan than in Iraq. Britain makes the move with most of the NATO allies not stepping up and a major Taliban offensive expected in the spring.

** CALIFORNIA REDISTRICTING INITIATIVE TO BE SUBMITTED TO ATTORNEY GENERAL’S OFFICE. Frustrated by the Legislature’s slow pace in moving on redistricting reform — a project that ended in a comedy of errors last year between the two legislative houses, leading many observers to conclude that majority Democrats really didn’t want to do anything — Common Cause and other reform groups are submitting an initiative to Attorney General Jerry Brown for legal vetting prior to beginning signature gathering. If the Legislature doesn’t act, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is likely to support the measure.

** NEVADA REPUBLICANS STEP AWAY FROM PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUS. Althought they would like to get in on the fun now being enjoyed by their Silver State Democratic counterparts, Nevada Republicans probably won’t move their presidential caucus up to mid-January of next year. They might do a straw poll, however. Why not move the caucus? Well, unlike the Democrats, whose national party specifically selected an early Western state to break up the old Iowa/New Hampshire two-step, national Republicans have not done so, and would probably penalize Nevada Republicans. The earliest a Nevada Republican caucus could go under current rules is February 5th. It might be moved to early February.

** NUCLEAR FUTURE? Patrick Moore, a co-founder of Greenpeace who has become quite controversial with some of his old environmentalist colleagues, writes today in the San Jose Mercury News about the wonders of a new generation of nuclear energy technology and its increased relevance in the greenhouse era. Moore was in Fresno late last week working with proponents of a new nuclear power plant outside the city.

** SIMON SAYS RUDY. Bill Simon, the investment banker who was the 2002 Republican nominee for governor of California, has been named director of policy for Rudy Giuliani’s nascent presidential campaign. Simon introduced Giuliani before his very well received speech to the California Republican Party convention earlier this month. Giuliani campaigned in California in 2002 for Simon, helping win a Republican primary over former LA Mayor Richard Riordan, who has also endorsed Giuliani. That primary was marked by the massive intervention of Democratic Governor Gray Davis against Riordan, who worried Davis as a moderate Republican.

Simon was an assistant US attorney during Giuliani’s famed stint as US Attorney for the Southern District of New York, during which he prosecuted the Mafia and Michael Milken, not that the two were connected, mind you. Simon and Giuliani were having breakfast together in New York when the first plane struck the World Trade Center on 9/11. Simon is a likable conservative, a noted family man, son of a famed conservative stalwart, former Secretary of the Treasury William Simon, who played a major role in establishing the financing for some of today’s biggest conservative think tanks.

** GIULIANI REACHES OUT TO RIGHT. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani will address the Conservative Political Action Conference on Friday in Washington. Giuliani’s views are well to the left of that annual assemblage on social issues and some environmental matters. But he has to find some way to deal with his party’s right wing. And he may be their best shot at retaining the White House.

Giuliani, incidentally, with Florida possibly moving up as an early primary next year, recently brought former Governor Jeb Bush’s campaign manager onto his political team. Karen Unger was also Bush’s deputy chief of staff and appointments chief.

** SCHWARZENEGGER ADDRESSES NATIONAL PRESS CLUB. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will lay out his view of post-partisan centrism today in Washington in an address at the National Press Club. The themes will be very familiar to NWN readers. The speech will be carried live by C-SPAN at 10 AM Pacific time. Schwarzenegger again called for a “timeline” for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq yesterday on the CBS program Face The Nation.

** SCHWARZENEGGER AND WESTERN GOVERNORS ANNOUNCE CLIMATE CHANGE AGREEMENT. The governors of five Western states — California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, and New Mexico — just announced a regional program to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The governors will formally sign a memorandum of understanding at the National Governors Association winter meeting in Washington, D.C. The MOU commits the five states to develop over the next 6 months a regional target for greenhouse gas reduction and, over the next 18 months, to devise a market-based program to reach the target. The pact also commits the states to a multi-state registry to track greenhouse gas emissions in the West and to promote greentech.

“Western States are being particularly hard-hit by the effects of climate change,” noted Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano in a statement.

“This MOU sets the stage for a regional cap and trade program, which will provide a powerful framework for developing a national cap and trade program,” said California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. “This agreement shows the power of states to lead our nation addressing climate change.”

“With this agreement, states are once again taking the lead on combating global climate change - while Washington, D.C. sits on its hands,” said New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. “This historic agreement signals our commitment to tackling the problem head-on at the regional level and building on efforts in our individual states.”

** Monitor computer memory prices on a daily basis. Some chip prices are down.

** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices are around $60 to $61 per barrel on expectation of a report that US fuel supply is down. Refineries have lately been operating in diminished capacity.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger discusses a few of his films that did not
win Academy Awards.

** AN INCONVENIENT AL. Will the likely Academy Award tonight for former Vice President Al Gore’s climate change documentary, An Inconvenient Truth, lead to another presidential candidacy? In addition to being a commercial success — it’s a best seller as a DVD — the film has been hugely influential. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger touted it to NWN last spring.

And if frontrunner Hillary Clinton runs afoul of her past support for the Iraq War — Gore called it a loser from the beginning — as the Democratic nomination contest unfolds, and if Barack Obama proves too inexperienced and/or unsubstantive, there could be a real call for Gore to enter the race. While John Edwards is well positioned to benefit from the stumble of either, and well thought of in the party, Gore is a very knowledgeable and vastly experienced figure with an obvious handle on one of the biggest issues in the world. He has four national campaigns under his belt, having run in the Democratic presidential primaries in 1988, serving as Bill Clinton’s running mate in 1992 and 1996, and having actually won the national popular vote for president in 2000.

However, it may be that he’s found his calling. Global climate change is certainly a big enough issue for an ambitious man. Gore is promoting a series of concerts around the world. He’s serving as senior advisor to the British government, which is likely to continue no matter who succeeds Prime Minister Tony Blair. The leader of the British Conservative Party, David Cameron, is also on the anti-greenhouse gas bandwagon. Gore doesn’t have to win what would almost certainly be a nasty election to have a huge impact.

** SO, THE ACADEMY AWARDS. Aside from Al Gore’s climate change film, An Inconvenient Truth, a lock for best documentary, and Helen Mirren’s star turn as the queen of England in The Queen, and Martin Scorsese for his direction of The Departed, it’s not all that clear which films will win in tonight’s Academy Awards ceremony. What is clear that few of the films made much of an impact on the culture.

I noticed when I got my ballot early last month for the Screen Actors Guild Awards that there were quite a few film performances I simply hadn’t seen last year. Of course, I’m not exactly a representative person. Last year I was totally caught up in the campaigns, covering them around the clock. Which is an issue in itself. But even though I was sent a number of DVDs to view prior to voting as a SAG member, the titles didn’t seem all that compelling. Talking with friends it seems that few if any of the films that are up for awards this year made much of an impression on them, either. After a period earlier in the decade when movies like Gladiator and The Lord of the Rings pictures were massively impactful both culturally and critically, we’re in a period in which most of the country doesn’t particularly care about the Oscar nominees.

** NO PROBLEMO FOR NEWSOM. As predicted here, the Gavin Newsom scandal in San Francisco has proved to be a scandalette. No legal problems for the mayor, no lawsuit, no resignation, no hit in his lofty poll numbers. People who seize on such things in the blogosphere and elements of the mainstream media need to think things through better.

Next scandal, please.

** ARNOLD FACES THE NATION ON POST-PARTISANSHIP. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger appeared on the CBS News program Face The Nation today, talking up his post-partisan theme. What it means, he says, is that “you ultimately want to serve the people rather than serve your party.”

Schwarzenegger lauded John McCain for his stance on climate change, although he did not endorse the Arizona senator and Vietnam War hero in his race for the Republican presidential nomination. Schwarzenegger is in Washington for the National Governors Association conference. He will give a major address on post-partisan centrism tomorrow at the National Press Club.

** WINNING OR LOSING THE TERROR WAR? This report from the head of British counterintelligence suggests that things have actually gotten worse.

** DISSATISFACTION IN HUNGARY. Of course, things could be worse. You could be the socialist prime minister of Hungary. Nevertheless, it’s been far worse there. Imagine what they felt like after the Soviets invaded — again — in 1956.

** “SECONDARY VIRGINITY.” Veteran conservative lobbyist Grover Norquist has a new concept! With the “right promises,” you, too, can be a virgin again. No matter how old and, ah, experienced you are. Isn’t it great when political operatives, like Grover Norquist, offer you moral absolution?

** THE GIULIANI CHALLENGE. A Detroit News columnist notes the free ride former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is getting from the media and the Democrats. Oh, but I suspect some Republicans will be jumping in on this point. In the not terribly distant future.

** BOMB, BOMB, BOMB, BOMB BOMB IRAN. OH, BOMB IRAN, OH, BOMB IRAN … With apologies to the Beach Boys. A golden oldie transmogrified at the time of the Iran hostage crisis. Not all that popular a tune in the Pentagon. Several flag rank officers are said to be ready to resign in the event of a present day attack.

With the dust settling from the first group encounter of the 2008 presidential race, the Nevada Democratic forum in Carson City, everyone’s looking to what’s next for the race in the second-in-the-nation contest. In Nevada, as Las Vegas Review-Journal reporter Molly Ball writes, happy organizers are turning their sights to the next event on tap, another issues forum with the Democratic presidential candidates on March 24th. Focusing principally on health care, this will take place at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas.

Unlike this week’s forum, oddly skipped by second place candidate Barack Obama, whose campaign offered only a general explanation as to why he would be flying from Los Angeles to Iowa at the time of the forum to pursue a vague schedule in the site of the first-in-the-nation contest, the freshman senator from Illinois will, sources close to him tell NWN, participate in the Las Vegas forum next month.

Meanwhile, a dust-up in the lefty blogosphere looks unlikely to upset arrangements for a full-on Nevada presidential debate in August. But first, a moment more on Carson City.

Carson City’s Republican mayor called the Democratic presidential forum the biggest event to hit his fair city, population 57,000 (although it seems less driving swiftly through the downtown area), in over 100 years. The last big event, he said, was a world heavyweight boxing championship fight back in 1897. Between Gentleman Jim Braddock and, ah, the guy who lost.

It’s actually pretty cool to have the presidential campaign descend upon a small desert community with the Sierra Nevada mountains less than 20 miles away. A reminder that success in Nevada doesn’t simply lie close to the bright lights of Vegas and that early victory in the race for the White House may be eked out in the Western equivalents of Sioux City and Nashua.

What’s not so cool is the dust-up over the Nevada Democratic Party’s decision to have Fox News cablecast the August debate in Reno. Elements of the lefty blogosphere, as reported the other day, are trying to get the party to dump cablecast partner Fox News or, failing that, get candidates not to participate.

I think the move will be a non-starter. Not that they don’t have a point. Here’s what MoveOn.org sent out Thursday morning to members:

Dear MoveOn member,
The Democratic Party of Nevada just announced plans to let Fox News host a presidential primary debate. But Fox isn’t a legitimate news channel. It’s a right-wing mouthpiece like Rush Limbaugh and the Drudge Report—repeating false Republican talking points to smear Democrats.
Fox has already tried to skew the ‘08 race by accusing Senator Barack Obama of attending a terrorist school. CNN immediately exposed the charge as false, and Obama hit back by refusing to appear on Fox—sending them scrambling. Democrats can force Fox to be fair and balanced by fighting back hard.
Can you sign this petition asking the Democratic Party of Nevada to drop Fox as its partner for the presidential primary debate?
The full text of the petition is: “Fox is a mouthpiece for the Republican Party, not a legitimate news channel. The Democratic Party of Nevada should drop Fox as its partner for the presidential primary debate.”

The Daily Kos is pushing it, too, with Kos telling his followers they have to pressure “the Dim Wit Nevada Democrats,” a classic example of style in the yaposphere of both Democratic and Republican hyperpartisan extremes. (Since the Democratic Parties of Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and Montana have all signed on as co-sponsors of the Reno debate, perhaps Kos should be talking about Dim Wit Western Democrats. Or perhaps not.)

What’s wrong with Fox News for these folks? The TV network comes off as fairly anti-Democratic. People are upset about a 2004 Democratic debate that aired with talking heads interjecting comments and the Democratic Party referred to as the “Democrat” Party throughout. That’s a particularly sophomoric rhetorical ploy on the right. You can’t change the name of a political party to suit your partisan fancy, and no other serious journalistic organization would do that.

But Fox News, although it has its problems — the audience is not the most desirable demographic for advertisers — is the largest cable news network. It would be foolish of the Democrats, so long as the ground rules are firmly established, not to expose their candidates to a different audience, some of which may be pleasantly surprised. It would also be foolish of the Democrats to look like they are kow-towing to the “netroots.”

The Democratic Party is simply bigger than a cable news network. So don’t expect Fox to be dropped. Do expect Fox News personalities to be on good behavior around that August debate. Besides, it’s not at all clear that Rupert Murdoch likes the Republicans’ chances in 2008.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad champions Iran’s nuclear program,
but British Prime Minister Tony Blair rules out a military strike.

** GIULIANI AND MCCAIN OUT OF NEW HAMPSHIRE DEBATE, IN CALIFORNIA DEBATE. Republican presidential frontrunners Rudy Giuliani and John McCain won’t participate in the New Hampshire debate to be cablecast by CNN on April 4th.

They will participate in the May 3rd debate at the Reagan Library to be cablecast by MSNBC.

** SCHWARZENEGGER CLOSE SECOND IN “GLOBIE” AWARDS, NUNEZ AND PAVLEY HONORABLE MENTION. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger finished less than 30 votes out of more than 20,000 cast by Environmental Defense members behind the mayor of Seattle for his work on climate change. Mayor Greg Nickels got the nod for his work organizing American cities to pledge to cut greenhouse gases. Nickels has organized nearly 400 mayors representing 57 million Americans to agree to cut greenhouse gas emissions in their communities by 7% under the 1990 level by 2012. Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez and former LA Assemblywoman Fran Pavley received honorable mention awards for authoring last year’s landmark California global warming law, which Schwarzenegger, of course, signed. “I do also want to congratulate Governor Schwarzenegger for his close second-place finish in the Globies,” Nunez said. “And while it may not be the first time he’s gone empty handed on awards night, I want to say on behalf of the legislature that Governor, we really, really like you.”

** HUNDREDS OF CONTRACTORS DEAD IN IRAQ, AS WELL. According to the AP, some 800 contractors to US forces in Iraq have also died. Contractors fulfill a variety of functions there, from paramilitary and security work to support functions.

** ARNOLD SELLS CALI. California will debut its $10 million tourism TV ad campaign during Sunday’s Oscarcast in Denver, Seattle, Salt Lake, and Portland. The advertising includes Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, First Lady Maria Shriver, Clint Eastwood, Teri Hatcher, skateboarder Tony Hawk and chef Wolfgang Puck.

** DEMOCRATS TO TRY TO REVOKE BUSH’S AUTHORIZATION. Echoing comments made Wednesday in Carson City by Senators Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, Senate Democrats are drafting legislation to revoke the broad authority given President George W. Bush prior to the toppling of Saddam Hussein. The president did go on that aircraft carrier and say: “Mission accomplished!”

** VILSACK DROPS OUT. Former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack is dropping out of the Democratic presidential race. Vilsack was running fourth in his home state of Iowa, site of the first-in-the-nation Iowa presidential caucus. He was one of the candidates I essentially ignored Wednesday at the presidential forum in Carson City, Nevada, given the format of one candidate appearing in the forum and another doing a press availability, simultaneously.

** BLAIR SAYS NO TO MILITARY STRIKE ON IRAN. British Prime Minister Tony Blair says he’s against a military strike against Iran. Blair prefers diplomacy, as well as political and economic sanctions.

** Monitor computer memory prices on a daily basis. Chip prices are stable.

** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices are up to $60 per barrel. US refinery capacity was running at only 85% last week.

What to make of the California Senate’s move to get in on the global warming act?

Led by Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata, state Senate Democrats yesterday introduced a package of new bills to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the Golden State. Which is curious in a number of respects, because California just adopted a landmark bill last summer, AB 32 by Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez and LA Assemblywoman Fran Pavley, to do the very same. And now it is up to the state’s famed Air Resources Board to develop the specifics.

One of the bills in the Senate package would require California to have 33% of its electric power come from renewable energy sources like wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and tides by 2020. That’s a good idea. But California is, as has been reported on NWN several times over the last two years, falling behind on its current requirement of having 20% renewables by 2010.

Maybe it would be a good idea to fully implement the current renewable energy law first.

That 2010 requirement, incidentally, came at the behest of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was frustrated by the level of the previous landmark law on renewable energy passed by the Democratic Legislature and signed into law by then Governor Gray Davis in 2002. Which required 20% renewable electric power not by 2010, but by 2017.

In 2002, well before the recall in which Schwarzenegger became governor of California was a glimmer in anyone’s eye, the former action superstar told me he wanted to go beyond what Davis and the Democratic legislators had come up with on renewable power. And he has, at least as a matter of policy.

If Perata and Senate Democrats — including the powerful career environmental staffer Kip Lipper — want to make a real difference on renewable energy, rather than simply pass another law, perhaps they should invite the state’s Public Utilities Commission to hearings on why California is falling short on the 20% renewables requirement by 2010.

Passing another law requiring renewable energy for electric power generation when the current, Arnold-accelerated law, is falling short does not seem particularly useful. Unless it is intended to be a spur. But a better spur would be legislative oversight hearings.

The rest of the package focuses on regulatory rather than market-oriented solutions to curbing greenhouse gas emissions. Schwarzenegger, being a moderate Republican, is mainly focused on market-oriented solutions. As are the Western Europeans, such as British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who are the only global leaders actually doing something about the emerging climate change crisis.

There are two key elements to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Power generation and vehicles. The law passed in 2002, also authored by Fran Pavley, to drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles, is under attack in court from major automakers. And from the Bush Administration. While the president now fully acknowledges and accepts the findings of the recent report from global climate experts that climate change is happening and is due to manmade effects, his administration still seeks to halt governmental action to deal with the problem. Which, given its tilt to the oil industry, is hardly surprising.

And so we see — despite even the statements from the top two Republican presidential candidates, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, the only ones who are likely electable next year — an ongoing effort by some conservatives to continue to deny the problem. For example, our friend Jon Fleischman, at his Flash Report site, castigated McCain for the “environmental extremism” of touring a Southern California port by helicopter with Arnold Schwarzenegger and talking about the need to combat the greenhouse effect.

Into this mini-maelstrom steps Perata, who has been getting short shrift in the post-partisan lovefest between Schwarzenegger and Nunez. It’s Nunez who was in Davos, accepting the accolades of global celebrities for California’s leadership on climate change.

It’s ironic, because it was actually Perata who wanted to work with Schwarzenegger, in bipartisan, if not post-partisan, fashion, well before Nunez did. The speaker was still trying to figure out Schwarzenegger and still, under the influence of his labor union backers, pursuing a slash and burn approach to the governor, going so far as to kill his big solar energy bill in 2005.

Perata, actually, in many respects was the key to the great infrastructure bonds package of 2006. He introduced the original package, which Schwarzenegger then greatly expanded upon following his predictable trouncing in the 2005 special election.

But it is Schwarzenegger and Nunez who star in the buddy picture, not Arnold and Don. Which brings us back to global warming.

AB 32 passed last summer. It’s up to the Air Resources Board to develop the implementation strategy. Perata’s old ally, former Governor and now Attorney General Jerry Brown, who actually pioneered this issue decades ago, long before any of these other folks now crowding the stage ever thought about this, will be heavily involved with the process. Let’s let the ARB do its work.

Iran staged more war games on the eve of a key UN deadline for its nuclear program.

** SAN FRAN BLOGGERS BORED BY LACK OF GAVIN NEWSOM STORY. “Gavin Schmavin, we’re bored now.” Shocking. Positively shocking …

** AMERICA’S MIXED VIEW OF CELEBRITIES IN POLITICS. Back when Arnold Schwarzenegger was about to be elected governor of California, a national poll by CBS showed a clear majority of Americans in favor of more involvement by stars in politics. Now that big margin, 54% to 38%, has devolved into the mixed bag of 47% to 48%. Even as Schwarzenegger himself is celebrated as a very successful governor.

Note to David Geffen.

** RIGHT WING ATTACKS CLINT EASTWOOD. From Newsmax.com: “ Letters From Iwo Jima, nominated for four Oscars, including Best Picture, posits a moral equivalency between America and Imperial Japan during World War II, while the Oscar-nominated “Flags of Our Fathers” depicts the American war-time government as greedy and corrupt.”

** OLD “DUDES” IN BOTH PARTIES. Republican commentator and consultant Karen Hanretty, former campaign press secretary for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, contests the idea put forth by hyperpartisan Democrats that the Republican presidential candidates are “crusty old white dudes.” As distinguished from the, ah-hem, “experienced” white males who make up most of the Democratic presidential field.

** SCHWARZENEGGER WEBCAST ON PRISON REFORM. With a local judge siding with the prison guards union against his moving prisoners out of the overcrowded state prison system to other prisons, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger does a press conference on prison reform at 2 PM today.

** HILLARY IN L.A. Democratic presidential frontrunner Hillary Rodham Clinton is in Los Angeles today for a series of private fundraising events. She’s at Creative Artists Agency for an event with younger players, and appears with her heavy hitters at three national finance committee gatherings.

Clinton national finance committee members commit to raise at least $25,000 each this year, and at least the same amount next year. These meetings are hosted by three of Hillary’s biggest backers: Haim Saban, the billionaire media mogul and creator of the Power Rangers who also holds Israeli citizenship and is a co-owner of Univision. Sim Farrar, a major player in the equities business said by many to have been Senator Barbara Boxer’s biggest fundraiser. And John Emerson, head of private banking at the Capital Group, chairman of the Los Angeles Music Center, and a former top aide in the Clinton White House.

** LEFTY BLOGOSPHERE VS. FOX NEWS. Here’s an e-mail I got this morning. It’s part of a move that would have the effect of disupting the August Democratic presidential debate in Reno, Nevada by moving it off of the number one cable news network.

Dear MoveOn member,
The Democratic Party of Nevada just announced plans to let Fox News host a presidential primary debate. But Fox isn’t a legitimate news channel. It’s a right-wing mouthpiece like Rush Limbaugh and the Drudge Report—repeating false Republican talking points to smear Democrats.

The full text of the petition is: “Fox is a mouthpiece for the Republican Party, not a legitimate news channel. The Democratic Party of Nevada should drop Fox as its partner for the presidential primary debate.”

** EARLY CALIFORNIA PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY BILL MOVES FORWARD. The state Assembly Elections Committee this morning passed the bill by Senator Ron Calderon backed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger to move the California presidential primary to February 5th. The bill could be voted on by the entire Assembly as early as tomorrow.

** SPANKING BAN ABANDONED. That bill to ban spanking in California has been abandoned. Instead, the author will pursue legislation against other forms of physical violence against children.

** AGENCY REPORTS IRAN INTRANSIGENT ON NUCLEAR PROGRAM. The International Atomic Energy Agency reports this morning that Iran is continuing its uranium enrichment activities in defiance of a UN Security Council resolution against it. The finding could clear the way for harsher sanctions against the regional power, which maintains publicly that the enrichment is only for purposes of nuclear power, but hints ever so broadly that the goal is a nuclear bomb.

** Monitor computer memory prices on a daily basis. Some chip prices are down.

** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices are in the $58 to $60 per barrel range. US supply has plunged with the shutdown of some refinery units.

Big plays frequently open off Broadway. Carson City, Nevada, is a long way from Broadway. The tiny capital of the state that holds the second-in-the-nation contest in the 2008 Democratic presidential sweepstakes hosted the first forum of the presidential campaign yesterday. The event showcased a promising field that needs a lot of work.

The need for work begins with the frontrunner, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. Carson City is an Old West frontier town. It’s not hard to hear the faint echoes of gunfire looking at the desert vista that surrounds it and the snowcapped Eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada mountains. Yesterday the echoes of a different sort of gunfire emanated from Los Angeles, where a former patron of the Clintons ripped into them, calling them liars and all sorts of nasty things. He did it on behalf of the second place candidate in the field, media phenom Barack Obama, who curiously chose to skip the event at the very moment in which his substantiveness is coming into question. Rather than laugh off the comments as those of a vain billionaire angry because he failed to gain a presidential pardon for an activist who killed FBI agents, Clinton’s campaign allowed a dustup to occur that overshadowed her Nevada performance, just as Obama’s campaign allowed his triumphant visit to Los Angeles to be overshadowed by a willful financial supporter.

Clinton, like all of the candidates, actually did rather well in the forum itself. Moderated by her husband’s former communications director, ABC commentator George Stephanopoulos, the format was quite straightforward if ultimately disjointed. Each candidate appeared separately, gave a brief opening statement, took three questions from Stephanopoulos, made a closing statement, then went off to do a brief press conference with waiting reporters. Since the press conferences took place while another candidate was performing in the forum, this made for interesting choices for the crowd of 100 journalists in attendance.

After longshot Senator Chris Dodd led off (his main impact at the forum was to help Stephanopoulos learn how to pronounce “Nevada” after the talk show host was booed by the crowd for calling it Ne-vah-da), Clinton appeared. Her casual “Hi, George” to her husband’s old advisor got a big cheer from the crowd, as did her lauding of the the event’s co-host, the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), the big public employees union.

Clinton immediately launched into a litany of positions designed to identify with the union crowd that is key in Democratic primaries, noting how she’d stood with them against President George W. Bush on overtime, working conditions, minimum wage, and social security. She ran through her opposition to privatizing government, saying this administration has three times as many private contractors as her husband had. She called for cutting the contractors back, to save $8 to $10 billion. (Thought actually contracting out can be more cost effective than going with unionized benefit packages.)

She talked up universal health care, a “new and secure clean energy future,” and more opportunity for college education. She didn’t mention Iraq, which of course dominated most of the discussion at the forum.

So of course Stephanopoulos began with Iraq, as she might have anticipated. Calling her vote to authorize the war “sincere based on the facts and assurances of the time,” Clinton said the focus now needs to be on what is to be done to force Bush to change direction. She called for stopping the escalation, getting proper equipment for the troops, placing the Iraqi troops more out front than our troops, who she wants to start “redploying,” i.e., withdrawing, in 90 days. And she wants to required new congressional authority for Bush’s actions in Iraq, saying what he was authorized to do ran out long ago.

Asked about health care, she said she would achieve universal health care “by the end of my second term.” And on the nasty interview given New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd by Hollywood billionaire David Geffen, now backing Obama, she softpedaled her campaign’s earlier harsh response, saying she wants a positive campaign that focuses “on what we want to do for America. Let’s not engage in the politics of personal destruction.” She closed by saying she thinks Bill Clinton was a good president — Geffen had blasted his old friend in the typically waspish Dowd column — a line almost guaranteed to get a rousing response from Democrats. Something Geffen and Obama would do well to keep in mind before they blunder on further themselves.

So far, so good for Clinton. She had walked back off the limb her campaign had gone out on by attacking Obama for his backer’s remarks (the Clinton campaign inaccurately identified Geffen as Obama’s finance chairman, which Geffen spokesman Andy Spahn clarified in an e-mail during the forum). But it quickly became apparent that Clinton would stiff the press on hand by being the only candidate not to do a press availability following her forum appearance.

Not to worry, as a number of us realized that there was only one way for her to leave the building. Soon over half the journalists in attendance were waiting for her to walk past a doorway around which we all gathered. We waited. And waited. Meanwhile, the forum droned in the background. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, the former UN ambassador, entering the building, saw the waiting media crowd with apparent delight and turned to engage us. Whereupon I called out: “What about David Geffen?” Richardson, a fine banterer, quickly got that we were waiting for Hillary — okay, with some prompting — laughed and went on to get made up for his appearance. Meanwhile, Clinton’s staff was aware the press was waiting for her, but made no effort to engage.

It turned out, according to a Las Vegas newspaper reporter, that she was shooting an appearance on a Vegas TV show, a rather lengthy one. Clinton’s staff could have avoided wasting the media’s time by passing that on. When Clinton finally did leave, she swept past the few reporters still waiting, taking no questions. Which was another mistake. A pro can easily deflect the Geffen scandalette with a quip about not being cast in the sequel to Dreamgirls. Much bigger problems than the personal pique of a disappointed financial supporter loom ahead.

Meanwhile, back at the forum itself, John Edwards was turning in a typically polished performance. Making heavy note of his own apology for his vote to authorize the Iraq War, he didn’t say that Clinton should also apologize, but the intended inference was clear. Asked by Stephanopoulos if her answer on Iraq was good enough, Edwards said: “Whether it’s good enough is between her and her conscience. It’s not for me to judge.”

Among the candidates below the first tier, Richardson and Joe Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, did perhaps better than the others. And Congressman Dennis Kucinich, turning in an eccentric performance on stage replete with a physical demonstration of how he is the candidate with “no strings attached,” served notice that he is the Cassandra of the field, having warned about the peril of Iraq from the beginning, castigating the others for being against the war but not for cutting off funding, a position likely to become influential later this year.

While this first presidential forum was not a big newsmaker, it did accomplish several important things. First, it established that the Nevada presidential caucus is for real. Partisans of the longtime early states Iowa and New Hampshire had sought to denigrate the Nevada event. Some East Coast journalists, used to the winter wonderland delights of Des Moines and Manchester — a term used very advisedly, of course — had talked of ignoring Nevada. But with all the well-advised candidates on hand, and a schedule of more Nevada forums and debates to come — people close to Obama tell NWN he will be at the Las Vegas forum next month — it’s clear that Nevada will be an important early contest.

In fact, as Biden pointed out, it may turn out to be pivotal. Iowa will begin the sorting process in the field, but Nevada will show if anyone has recovered from an initial poor showing going into the New Hampshire primary. And it gives a candidate like Richardson, an impressive figure who should appeal to many in the party and the press, an important opportunity to wedge himself into the race in the face of more famous and better funded opponents like Clinton, Obama, and Edwards.

The event also reminded how the more casual atmosphere of politics in a smaller state is conducive to a good campaign. Bantering with and questioning, usually on the record, the likes of Richardson, Edwards, Biden, and Kucinich among others brings a useful and revealing flavor to the process that is missing with the formal and stylized events that increasingly dominate politics in California and elsewhere.

Richardson picked up on the banter about David Geffen and announced in the forum that Geffen should apologize to the Clintons and Obama should distance himself from the remarks. He called for a clean campaign pledge. Biden and others picked up on that. Of course they all love the Clinton and Obama campaigns choosing to make spectacles of themselves.

I’d run into Biden, in amusing fashion, as he picked up a box lunch before his forum appearance. Later we all got into it with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman on what needs to be done in Afghanistan. You don’t get this sort of interesting give and take with a classic frontrunner campaign. Such campaigns tend to run into trouble early on if they don’t make needed adjustments.

An important note for the Clinton campaign, whose candidate is in California today and tomorrow but will have no public events.