** U.S. PUSH FOR RE-BAATHIFICATION. After executing what turned out to be a disastrous de-Baathification — then the stripping of Iraqi governmental posts from members of Saadam Hussein’s ruling Baath Party and firing of members of the Iraqi Army on the same lines, which merely created a vast pool of potential insurgents — the US is now finally successfully pushing a re-Baathification of the Iraqi govenment.
** ANOTHER BAD SIGN FOR ALBERTO GONZALES. In another bad sign for embattled US Attorney General Albert Gonzales, his legal counsel and White House liaison will invoke the 5th amendment to avoid testifying in the controversy around the firings of eight US attorneys around the country, two of them in California. Senator Dianne Feinstein has called for the ouster of Gonzales, who previously claimed he had no particular knowledge of the firings but it has since been revealed participated in a meeting planning the firings.
** ANGELIDES ASKED GARRY SOUTH FOR MONEY. Democratic strategist Garry South reveals that he, too, received the e-mails last week from unsuccessful Democratic gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides asking for money to advertise against 19 California Republican members of Congress urging them to vote for Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s anti-Iraq War legislation. The advertising was to run well after the vote itself. South is Angelides’ most public critic in the Democratic Party. “Who knows what he was thinking?,” asks South. “it’s like his campaign last fall against Arnold Schwarzenegger. Inexplicable.”
** WHAT IS PHIL ANGELIDES DOING? So the landslide Democratic loser of last year’s California governor’s race has set up a group called Stand Up For California. And has been e-mailing people on his list asking for money to fight the Iraq War. Probably not why people were supporting him for governor, and a notably unsuccessful issue for him, as viewers of the NWN video of his big anti-war rally last fall have noted. But perhaps a rallying point for someone trying to keep his political career alive.
Yet here is where it gets quite peculiar. Last week, Angelides was e-mailing his list asking for $10,000 to fund unspecified advertisements against “19 members of Congress” from California standing in the way of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s bill to withdraw troops from Iraq by the fall of 2008. Who were the 19? All Republicans, as it happens. Which was odd in itself, since passage of the bill was actually dependent on the votes of Democrats, more than a few from California, who were refusing to vote for the Pelosi bill because it wasn’t radical enough. The Republicans were all opposed to the bill anyway, and Phil Angelides is one of the last people on the planet to convince them otherwise.
Then it got even more peculiar. Late last week, Angelides e-mailed his list again, saying he was still $8,500 short — meaning he had only raised $1,500 for this peculiar venture — and needed it by April 1st to do the advertising needed to pass the Pelosi bill by moving those 19 Republicans. Actually, as NWN readers know, the vote was last Friday. April 1st is next weekend. Unless this was a big April Fool’s joke by the always amusing Angelides, these moves make no sense at all. Not unlike his general election campaign last year.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCASTS TODAY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will speak at the Friant Dam outside Fresno at 10:45 AM today and will address the Rotary Club of Fresno at 12:30 PM. As I mentioned early this morning, it’s water week for the governor.
** VILSACK ENDORSES HILLARY. Former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, who dropped out of the Democratic presidential race after appearing at last month’s Nevada Presidential forum in Carson City, today endorses Hillary Clinton for president. This will be a major boost for her in the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses, where she has been trailing John Edwards. Here is what Vilsack says in in his endorsement statement:
When I first ran for governor of Iowa in 1998, many people didn’t give me much of a chance. But not Hillary. She told me she’d do everything she could do to help, and she followed through. She stood by my side, and Iowa is better for it. She helped ignite the spark that changed Iowa from a red state to a blue state.
By standing with Hillary now we’ll help show that we are strong enough to win back the White House — and America will be stronger and better for it.
** BRITAIN-IRAN CRISIS CONTINUES. In a surprise for global oil traders and some others who back their bets on the future with dollars, the UK-Iran crisis over the seizure of 15 British sailors and marines on the Shatt Al Arab continues. Iran has still not turned over the British personnel, who had just inspected a merchant ship suspected of smuggling into Iraqi waters, and is making loud noises about trying them for illegally crossing into Iranian territory, if not for espionage itself. Meanwhile, Britain, as one might suppose from its history, is giving away nothing. Time for Iran to find a face-saving move.
** IT’S WATER WEEK FOR ARNOLD. As distinguished from Waterworld. That was not a Schwarzenegger picture, it was a Kevin Costner picture. Not that bad, actually, and much more popular than supposed. Actually … Governor Schwarzenegger will be focusing on California water issues this week. Water storage, and water transfer. Today he will be in the Fresno area, where he will tour a dam and give a speech. Quite a few of his Republican colleagues want a dam in the Fresno area, and thought they were going to get one last year in the Big Bang Bonds infrastructure package, before being shot down by state Senate Democrats.
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices are in the $62 to $64 per barrel range, the highest prices of the year, with the latest Iranian crisis.
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86 Comments
Jonas Blane:The Iranians are making a huge mistake.
Mar 26, 2007 - 8:46 am Ann:They may be desperate but they can’t be this stupid.
Mar 26, 2007 - 9:09 am richard locicero:The Iranians have moved the 15 Brit Sailors and Marines to Tehran for “Questioning”. I’m sure that Tony Blair is thrilled that great pal GWB believes that the Geneva Convention is “Quaint” Wonder how they view it in Iran?
Mar 26, 2007 - 9:24 am Bill Bradley:They know the British have long experience in the region. If the Brits were running the show there all this would have gone much better.
Mar 26, 2007 - 9:29 am Dana:Water is a touchy issue for the left–especially storage versus conservation as a strategy.
As we have mentioned Karl Rove in previous threads, I just want to mention I am dumbfounded Andrew Sullivan and I have the reached the same conclusion about Rove’s failed attempt to create a “permanent majority”. I knowe some Republicans (such as Christian Todd Whitman) have expressed dismay at the consequences of the move right Bush took after being elected in 2000 at Rove’s behest:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/andrew_sullivan/article1563268.ece
Mar 26, 2007 - 9:35 am CADTS:Vilsack’s endorsement is strong…but hardly helpful. Vilsack was polling fifth — IN HIS OWN STATE.
Plus, his once vaunted political operation is terribly fractured.
Mar 26, 2007 - 9:37 am Bill Bradley:All too true.
>Dana :
Mar 26, 2007 - 9:39 am Dana:Water is a touchy issue for the left–especially storage versus conservation as a strategy.
I forgot–to make the link work after clicking remove the “%20″ the website inserts into the middle of long web addresses.
Well, CADTS, at least Vilsack’s endorsement illustrates how much loyalty counts for in political relationships.
Mar 26, 2007 - 9:39 am Bill Bradley:Hillary doesn’t have to win Iowa, Edwards does. She made some good adjustments in the last month since Carson City.
>CADTS :
Mar 26, 2007 - 9:40 am Barbara:Vilsack’s endorsement is strong…but hardly helpful. Vilsack was polling fifth — IN HIS OWN STATE.
Plus, his once vaunted political operation is terribly fractured.
Mar 26, 2007 09:37 AM
It is murky and there is a great deal of covert activity, some of it no doubt not very pretty going on so who knows who provoked who …The key is to watch Rafsanjani’s tough talk…..this is all about Iraq…it is not going the way they would like…while a stable Iraq is in their interest…. they want to have a great deal of influence also …a very keen analysis I saw attributed this act and the tough talk to showing their displeasure of separating an Iraqi settlement and nuclear issues… which they see as a huge bargaining chip….This will be resolved …something similar happened in 2004 to British seaman…the Iranians march them around blindfolded for propaganda purposes and then released them….EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana announced today that he will be talking soon with chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani…this announcement was “praised” U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns….All kinds of stuff is going on to bring closure to this…
Mar 26, 2007 - 9:53 am RM 'Auros' Harman:The ARAB Summit is the big ME news! there is a report that Israel PM Olmert said today that he “would not hesitate” to be part of a ” regional Arab peace summit”
Arab foreign ministers met in Riyadh, for a pre-Arab Summit meeting …it starts on Wed!!!!!! It is a bit intriguing that Iraqi President Talabani is attending but Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is not attending according to press reports ….
Yeah, I think BB’s point is right on the mark — Vilsack’s endorsement isn’t a huge deal for Hillary, but it’s a painful obstacle for everybody else who’s counting on a strong showing in IA to pull momentum… Considering I like Edwards, Obama, and Richardson all better than Hillary, I am… not pleased.
Mar 26, 2007 - 10:00 am CADTS:Dana:
Permanent majority for the Reeps cannot happen…there history simply doesn’t allow for it. You can trace that all the way back to when Teddy Roosevelt and the Republicans of that era held all three levers of government. Historically and politically, they have never been able to reign in the more ultra-conservative wings of their party and it eventually destroys them.
Mar 26, 2007 - 10:03 am Bill Bradley:Very good point, CADTS.
>Historically and politically, they have never been able to reign in the more ultra-conservative wings of their party and it eventually destroys them.
Mar 26, 2007 - 10:07 am Bill Bradley:Incidentally, NWN hit 26,000 comments over the weekend.
Mar 26, 2007 - 10:09 am CADTS:Congratulations on the 26K comments BB…this shows how this is clearly the most engaging and informed blog on the political Web today. It is never boring, has pretty intellectual bloggers, not drawn to one point or the other and always keeps an open mind.
Mar 26, 2007 - 10:15 am CADTS:“Bill Bradley :
Hillary doesn’t have to win Iowa, Edwards does. She made some good adjustments in the last month since Carson City.”
Very true. HOWEVER, there is an important point to remember here. I call it the “Howard Dean” effect and it goes like this. Lets say Edwards wins Iowa and Hillary finishes third or fourth. If that happens, the voters (and the media) will jump on that. The message will be that Hillary, with all her name ID and money (Dean had the money, not the name ID), could not break through because of her high personal negatives and perceived disingenousness on key issues.
IF that happens, Hillary now faces a serious challenge of winning in Nevada (this won’t happen, particularly if she does poorly in Iowa) and then continuing that success through to California, Florida and New Hampshire. Now, she may win California but will likely finish third (or worse) in Florida and finish second or third in New Hampshire.
All in all, my thought is that Hillary has the greater burden of winning early because of who she is and the money she has. A second place finish in Iowa, while not fatal, won’t help her with any kind of bounce. If Edwards (or anyone else) wins Iowa, the game is up for Hillary.
And she knows this.
Mar 26, 2007 - 10:26 am Kandy Kid:Congrats on blowing by another comments milestone. This is by far and away the best blog on California politics. On any given day NWN has more comments than the rest combined.
The domination of the Democratic and Republican parties by their wingnuts creates an inherent dysfunction – one the Democratic party seems to overcome to maintain its power. It is hard to get Republicans to compromise when there are no tangible benefits for departing from dogma.
Regarding the Middle East – I do not understand how the commanders on the warship Cornwall can let Iranian coastal patrol boats approach and apprehend their boarding crews in Iraq waters. Why didn’t the boarding parties flee in their high speed boats? Why are the Iranian patrol boats still floating? Maybe the Cornwall had French officers…
Mar 26, 2007 - 10:40 am Ann:Hillary should win Nevada and New Hampshire. Iowa is for lefty teachers union types. I’m not sure Edwards will even be in the race that long.
Mar 26, 2007 - 10:42 am CADTS:Ann,
Iowa is for pragmatism — remember, Kerry was at single digits and won big. Dean was up by double digits and finished fourth.
Hillary will lose Nevada — she can’t overcome the negatives and the belief by many voters that she can’t win.
Heck, even the Dems I know in the state have serious doubts about her. Edwards isn’t the issue — the issue is Hillary’s electability numbers and her negatives hovering around 50% for the last five years. And as I have said, running for US Senate in NY ain’t the same thing as running for President. The audience and the attitudes are very different among Democrats.
Mar 26, 2007 - 10:48 am Bill Bradley:I think Nevada, and I’ve done it succesfully, can be won by any of four candidates. The ones, oddly enough, in my video.
Mar 26, 2007 - 10:52 am Brasky:Hillary has to run the table early. If Edwards (or Obama) gets a turn with cue, she might not get another shot.
Mar 26, 2007 - 10:53 am Bill:Actually, I think Hillary can lose a couple early and win the nomination.
Now if Obama wins one before South Carolina, look out.
Mar 26, 2007 - 10:55 am richard locicero:I agree with CADTs. If the 2004 Iowa Caucus was held a week later Edwards may have very well won. As it was Kerry’s win made him the nominee. There was a cascade effect after that. I’m not saying that Hillary is toast if she loses but everyone is gunning for her and it wouldn’t take much to change her fortunes and an Iowa “Loss” (anything other than first or Second) would be perceived as a serious blow.
Mar 26, 2007 - 10:58 am richard locicero:Course she’ll have lots of money. I heard she picked up another $10 mil in CA this weekend!
Mar 26, 2007 - 10:59 am Bill Bradley:Oh, Richard, really, I feel the room spinning …
Nobody raises that much money.
She just raised a ton more than anybody else.
In fact, I report on the actual numbers.
>richard locicero :
Mar 26, 2007 - 11:03 am Barbara:Course she’ll have lots of money. I heard she picked up another $10 mil in CA this weekend!
more intriguing news… Iran news service just announced that 3 Iranian soldiers who were captured on Feb. 28 near the Iran-Pakistan border in Iran have been released…remember nothing happens in a vacuum in ME…
I am off to Mass , it’s a big MARY Day! (feast of Annuciation)..Lebanon is sending 2 delegations to the Arab Summit…I shall say a prayer for Lebanon today! Toodles!
Mar 26, 2007 - 11:12 am Bill Bradley:Back at the end of the Kosovo War in 1999 — i.e., way before the lefty blog types got activated by the Florida recount and the righty blog types got activated by 9/11 — a rump battalion of Russian paratroopers, oddly commanded by a lieutenant general rather than a major, dashed into Kosovo. By truck as it happened.
NWN, in an earlier incarnation, was able, thanks to a friend on the Russian general staff, to correctly predict where those paratroopers were actually going.
Straight to Pristina Airport, the only major airport in Kosovo. To seize it, of course, before the NATO troops moved in-country.
This created a conundrum for the mostly British forces landing by helicopter on the airstrips there. Though sometime Democratic presidential candidate Wes Clark was NATO Supreme Commander, NATO forces were under the operational control of a British general, Sir Michael Jackson. (His real name.)
Should they engage the Russian paratroopers already there? Who they actually outnumbered.
Or should they cool it, and let things work out through diplomatic channels?
This Michael Jackson decided against war with Russia, though he caught some hell from Washington — you know, the “peaceniks” in the Clinton Administration — and let a face-saving solution emerge over time.
>Kandy Kid :
Mar 26, 2007 - 11:17 am Kandy Kid:Congrats on blowing by another comments milestone. This is by far and away the best blog on California politics. On any given day NWN has more comments than the rest combined.
The domination of the Democratic and Republican parties by their wingnuts creates an inherent dysfunction – one the Democratic party seems to overcome to maintain its power. It is hard to get Republicans to compromise when there are no tangible benefits for departing from dogma.
Regarding the Middle East – I do not understand how the commanders on the warship Cornwall can let Iranian coastal patrol boats approach and apprehend their boarding crews in Iraq waters. Why didn’t the boarding parties flee in their high speed boats? Why are the Iranian patrol boats still floating? Maybe the Cornwall had French officers…
Mar 26, 2007 10:40 AM
Thanks for the thoughts Bill.
So the Cornwall commanders decided not to take the war-starting bait offerred by the Iranians and left it to the diplomats to resolve the situation. I wonder how that decision was communicated to the families of the captured crews?
Mar 26, 2007 - 11:47 am Bill Bradley:If I were the skipper of the British frigate, I might well have sent my helo in firing warning shots across the bows of those Iranian gunboats. The Shatt Al Arab is too shallow for the Cornwall itself to operate in.
However, what I suspect happened is that the Iranians converged on the merchant ship while the sailors and marines were doing their onboard inspection. Their intentions were probably not clear till the Brits got back in their boats.
The Brits have centuries of imperial experience. This is hardly the first time that their personnel have been taken.
Mar 26, 2007 - 12:00 pm Ann:Angerlides again! lol
Mar 26, 2007 - 12:19 pm Wilbur:I think re-Baathification may be a necessary step toward “Vietnamization,” if one wants sober, experienced technocrats rather than loonies and subversives managing the Sunni side of the equation. Bremer was an idiot to run off the entire bureaucracy and military.
Mar 26, 2007 - 12:34 pm Wilbur:Perhaps PA will tell us next that God will “take him” if he does not meet his fundraising goal.
Mar 26, 2007 - 12:37 pm Ann:Are we that lucky? lol
Mar 26, 2007 - 12:43 pm Juan Cortina:should i ask for my $1500 back?
Mar 26, 2007 - 12:46 pm Bill Bradley:Ah, I’m laughing, General Cortina.
Let me consult my crystal ball here, which is actually a crystal globe from the Reagan Library …
>Juan Cortina :
Mar 26, 2007 12:46 PM
Mar 26, 2007 - 12:52 pm Wilbur:should i ask for my $1500 back?
We’re non-random today, right? OT, then… Key Gonzales staffer announced intention today to take the Fifth in the Senate hearings, to avoid being set up as the sacrificial lamb, Libby-style. http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8O42F4O1&show_article=1
Mar 26, 2007 - 1:20 pm Bill Bradley:Absolutely, Wilbur. There is way too much going on for me to comment directly on without running myself into the ground far before the next election.
Mar 26, 2007 - 1:23 pm Barbara:Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki will attend the Arab Summit… this is big news folks!!!!…
Mar 26, 2007 - 1:55 pm Jonathan Hemlock:This also means I should keep praying for Lebanon because it will no doubt be on the agenda as well as some private talks about Iraq and Hasmas!
Oh, my, Mr. Angelides.
To anyone who thinks that Gov. Brown is a “flake,” let me suggest a real look at poor Mr. Angelides.
Mar 26, 2007 - 1:56 pm Barbara:The British seanman will be fine ,,,this is a sideshow and as Mr. Bradley said not the first time there as been a “communication” via “an incident” in the region …if fact, certainly during my adulthood that is usually how the region communicates…but the Saudi’s are moving us into a new phase now…it’s raining in Sacto! Delicious! …I wanted to use my fireplace one for timeat least!
Mar 26, 2007 - 2:00 pm Bill Bradley:This could get complicated. The regime didn’t have to hold on to these folks.
>Barbara :
Mar 26, 2007 - 2:15 pm Paul Burton:The British seanman will be fine ,,,this is a sideshow and as Mr. Bradley said not the first time there as been a “communication” via “an incident” in the region …if fact, certainly during my adulthood that is usually how the region communicates…but the Saudi’s are moving us into a new phase now…it’s raining in Sacto! Delicious! …I wanted to use my fireplace one for timeat least!
Mar 26, 2007 02:00 PM
SF Chronicle re: Edwards campaigning in California:
“Edwards admitted today there is no way he can match the fund-raising prowess of Clinton, who took in an estimated $10 million in a weekend sweep through Los Angeles and the Bay Area.”
so if it’s true that HRC has swept through and raked in $10 million, I guess we are all feeling our increased clout knowing that the deep pocket donors and big money candidates care so much about our state …
Mar 26, 2007 - 2:16 pm Barbara:Mr. Bradley:This could get complicated
I don’t think it will …this is noot a re-play of the 70’s Hostage crisis …you just have to look at the things announced today …the biggie being Mottaki …there is alot of back channels going on…along with the public huffing and puffing….in saying that …there is TOO much nasty covert stuff going however….that is how it could get complicated…it is not good to upset Rafsajani…we need him to succeed …when we screw around with their borders …overplay…we hurt him and help the extremists…
Mar 26, 2007 - 2:25 pm richard locicero:CARPETBAGGER REPORT says she raised $2.8 mil - not what I originally said but not bad for a weekend. And my point is still valid. Her survival mechanism after Iowa - if she loses - is Really, really deep pockets.
Mar 26, 2007 - 2:26 pm richard locicero:Does anyone care what Angelides thinks or does at this point?
Mar 26, 2007 - 2:27 pm Bill Bradley:Okay, gang, the SF Chronicle is wrong in reporting Hillary raised $10 million over the weekend.
That is a ridiculous number. Period. Full stop.
Carpetbagger Report, whatevever the frack that is, Richard, is also wrong.
She raised $3.6 million that I know of and had one or two other events that I don’t know about.
Mar 26, 2007 - 2:29 pm RM 'Auros' Harman:Re: Re-Baathification — totally dissolving the army (let’s dump lots of disaffected young men out on the streets… with guns!) and the firing of all gov’t officials who knew what was going on (replicating the heckuva-job-style Bush administration at home?) was one of the worst moves of the early stage of the occupation. I think, though, it’s probably too late for this to work…
Christopher Hitchens’ latest is worth reading. I find him extremely annoying, most of the time, because he’s so supercilious towards those of us who (correctly, dammit!) believed that the case for invasion was being oversold and we could afford to bottle Saddam up with the UN inspections process for 2-4 more years while securing Afghanistan. But I think Hitch is basically right about the moral imperative to, if possible at least secure Iraqi Kurdistan. Even if it pisses of Turkey.
If we had a sane administration that understood diplomacy, we might offer to go to bat for Turkey in its EU negotiations, in exchange for ratcheting down the pressure on the Kurds, and maybe even ceding some autonomy to Turkish Kurdistan… Territorial disputes invariably cost the “occupying” country far more than the land could possibly add to their GDP; friendly pacification works better than force. Spain has figured that out, with Galicia, Catalunia, and the Euskadi homeland…
Mar 26, 2007 - 2:49 pm CADTS:Like I said, Dean had tons of money, a pretty good ground op and he got crushed.
Hillary has tons of money, name ID, an AMAZING campaign staff…and yet, can’t win.
NO ONE could raise $10M in a weekend. I saw Clinton at an event in San Francisco…she raised maybe $500K total.
Mar 26, 2007 - 3:07 pm CADTS:At that one event mind you…honestly, she has tapped heavily into Hollywood and Silicon Valley. But those primary dollars are starting to get squeezed a little.
Mar 26, 2007 - 3:09 pm Wilbur:Some reports suggest the Iranians will want the release of their own agents who have been seized in Iraq and Pakistan. But I don’t think the Brits are holding those guys, this Administration doesn’t listen well to allies, and I’m not sure the U.S. wants them released just yet from whatever “creative interviewing” dungeon some may be in. Add in factional infighting and undermining within both he Iraqi and Iranian governments and this could get complicated, indeed.
Mar 26, 2007 - 3:11 pm Barbara:Pakistan released 3 today …but this was not about tit for tat …at the heart of this …is Iraq and how the ME will be divvied up along Sunni (super power Saudi) - Shia (super power Iran)lines
Mar 26, 2007 - 3:26 pm Bill Bradley:Mottaki going to Arab Summit is a good sign for a variety of reasons…IF Ahmadinejad gets his show trial on espinage…(which I do not think will happen) but if that happens, then that means Rafsanjani is in big trouble and may not be the next Ayatollah…and we will have take some blame for that…because that did not have to happen…
CADTS, really now … I know you like to predict doom and gloom for Hillary but as you see on the video, she did well in Las Vegas at the forum with the other candidates.
She had an absolutely sensational fundraiser in LA Saturday night.
She picked up another million in Silicon Valley Sunday, where some reports had her supposedly doing badly.
This was a great weekend for Hillary Clinton.
She has a big lead in Nevada.
Etc., etc.
Mar 26, 2007 - 3:33 pm Barbara:I will vote for Hillary, Obama, Edwards, Richardson…whoever you guys pick…I will not vote for a Reep because whoever it is,(exception: Hagel, but he appears to not be running and could possibly end up as a cabinet choice in a Dem administration especially if it is Hillary’s, which ADDS to her appeal with me!)But any Rudy or MCCain or even Romney will most likely use a neo-con tainted pool of resources for Foreign Affairs/Defense advice and candidates…so I can’t take a chance on that…I hope Edwards is in for duration, because not only does he have an excellent fleshed out Health Care plan but I like is Energy Plan also…in it,he shows as much heart, understanding and respect for the develping world and poor countries as
Mar 26, 2007 - 3:45 pm Bill Bradley:he does our nation’s poor…
You’re right, Barbara. The Iranian foreign minister attending the Arab summit is very good news.
Mar 26, 2007 - 3:46 pm Barbara:It is FANTASTIC NEWS as Arnold would say …I still cannot believe you are not going Mr. Bradley!…I have set my tREO to Riyadh time …it is Tues 2:50 am right now…I just can’t wait for the Summit! maybe they will invite Arnold at the last minute and he will take you!!!!!!Go Saudis!
Mar 26, 2007 - 3:53 pm Adam:I shall be sending Phil the $8500 he’s “short.” The check is in the mail and should arrive two days after never.
What’s a multi-millionaire, who’s godfather is a billionaire, doing spamming people for money in support of vague causes?
Sad and desperate panhandling from a guy who did some good things as our state’s treasuer. A shame. Not a surprise, but a shame.
Mar 26, 2007 - 4:14 pm Barbara:RM A. Harmon,
Mar 26, 2007 - 4:26 pm Wilbur:I did not read the Hichens report you linked …but there was a report last Friday that Turkey claims that almost 4000 militants from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) are “mobilizing from bases in Iraq to launch attacks against targets in Turkey” …it remains unclear how serious this is …but neither Turkey or Iran will sit back and let their borders be violated or their minority populations stirred up against their respective governments…and they will work togther on this…certainly covertly, and maybe not so covertly…the US has to nip this in the bud… quickly…for every fire you put out in the ME …there is always another that could/will flare up…so you should try to keep the fires small and contained…this would not be such a small fire….
Is it significant that they are sending Mottaki rather than Ahmadinejad, i.e., a sign of serious intentions rather than just bloviating? I see that Musharaff is going, so it’s apparently not just a minister-level thing.
Mar 26, 2007 - 4:35 pm Johnnie Rico:Phil Angelides, just clueless, man oh man.
Mar 26, 2007 - 4:36 pm Barbara:You are correct …but it is much more nuanced than that …remember this is an ARAB Summit of Sunni led countries…it is not a ME Summit..so that the Persian (not Arab) Shia Powerhouse is invited, accepts and is sending a first class world stage leader…this is very very significant…
Mar 26, 2007 - 4:42 pm CADTS:BB, I agree…she is raising money like a demon. But the raising of money does not a campaign victory make.
Her ability to raise money and buy TV time isn’t the be all end all. IF it was, Kerry would have lost Iowa. In fact, I am firmly convinced that the more money she raises, the more turned off voters will become to her.
Mar 26, 2007 - 4:53 pm Barbara:Wilbur,
The above was a response to you…but also keep in mind the EU announced today that their FP rep will be meeting with Iran’s nuclear program chief rep, Larijani…and that our Stta edept praise dthat action…Mottaki was Larijani campaign manager when he ran recently for PRez against Ahmadinejad… these are good signs especially if your name is Rafsanjani…and also if you are a British seaman sitting in Iran at the moment….I just hope Condi and Gates have locked up Cheney and Abrams in a closet for the next 2 weeks…then I could enjoy my Easter! Toodles off to dinner and then “24″
Mar 26, 2007 - 5:01 pm CADTS:One other point. Within the greater context of the average uninformed voter mind, Hillary Clinton has more negatives than she can overcome at this point. As I have said before, she has largely done this to herself.
Indeed, if you were to focus group this with those same uninformed voters, you would be hard pressed to find anyone who can attribute a “positive issue image” to Senator Clinton. In fact, I would say that she has made this campaign “all about Hillary.” The substance and depth isn’t there — you can’t feel like you could in 1992. And yes, that was 1992 — but voters need to feel connected and comfortable with a candidate to listen to what they have to say.
If you remember, in 1992, Bill made it about something bigger than just himself. Hillary hasn’t done that yet.
I will say, that when I saw her in San Francisco this weekend — she told an amazing story about how she was raised, her father’s prejudices and why she became a Democrat. In that one moment, she made her campaign seem that it was about more than just her fame and high name ID. She made it seem like there was depth, a groundedness, if you will, in the fabric of the country. In short, I related to her better in that one story than in all she said in the entire hour and a half.
IF she does that in Iowa, on a grand scale, she can do alot to overcome the negatives. Does it mean she can win — no, not hardly. But it sure makes it interesting.
Mar 26, 2007 - 5:09 pm carole w:CADTS,
Mar 26, 2007 - 5:16 pm Bill Bradley:Why do you hate Hillary?
CADTS, I have a feeling you would find fault with the Bible she’d use in her Inaugural …
Mar 26, 2007 - 5:38 pm richard locicero:No, but I bet if she walked on water he’d say she couldn’t swim!
But seriously folks, both Iowa and Nevada are caucus states and she doesn’t seem to do well with the activist community of the party - the people that go to those things.
We’ll see.
Mar 26, 2007 - 6:53 pm Wilbur:All this going on, and all I can find on the TV “news” channels tonight is more Dead Bimbo Autopsy Results.
Mar 26, 2007 - 7:09 pm Barbara:Mr. Bradley:CADTS, I have a feeling you would find fault with the Bible she’d use in her Inaugural
That’s very good!!!!and if Hillary is the Dem nominee, I am one REAL DTS, who will be happy to vote for her …NO MATTER HOW MUCH MONEY SHE RAISES!
(Cadts: am firmly convinced that the more money she raises, the more turned off voters will become to her. )
Mar 26, 2007 - 7:18 pm Bill Bradley:I think Hillary can do quite well in the Nevada caucuses. She certainly did well with the crowd of the forum in Las Vegas, as you see in the video.
Mar 26, 2007 - 7:37 pm Anonymous:I’d like to welcome Phil back! He’s so amusing it’s hilarious. I guess draining wetlands hasn’t been as lucrative lately. Keep up the entertainment Philip!
Mar 26, 2007 - 8:06 pm Barbara:Wilbur,
Mar 26, 2007 - 8:18 pm Wilbur:There is alot that goes unreported..e.g.,an Iranian nuclear scientist was hit by the Israel’s Mossad … then Israel’s David Dahan, Israel Defense Minister is taken out by Iranians in Paris ( reported as a sucide by Israel gov that is bunk) then Ali Reza Asghari, either defected or was captured and is working with U.S… all this leads to MANY COMPROMISED AGENTS ..agents are not employees (like Plame) of CIA (Blue Badgers) or M16…but recruits to collect intel…Israeli, British Iranian, Russian, you name it.. .most have been getting out of the countries they have been working in especially in the last few 6 weeks…but SOME NEED HELP getting out …IF any of these “captured” British were agent(s)and too much more dust is kicked up …we could see a trial for espionage…they are never pretty…go google the Lavon Affair …everybody should just COOL IT and give the Saudi’s a chance to work their magic…
Yes, Barbara, intrigued by your comments I found this article on a geopolitics site of unknown pedigree which ties this to the assassinations of the Iranian nuke scientist and then Danan, the defection of Ali Reza Asghari, a former Iranian deputy defense minister, and a failed effort by British MI6 to extract one of its agents from Iran, thwarted when a leak tipped MOIS off to the plan and they grabbed the agent. http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=286403
Mar 26, 2007 - 9:47 pm Barbara:Stratfor is very reliable…and this analysis provides some insight…the problem is the many un-named vulnerable agents …Dahan’s takeout led to many people being compromised, some killed in Europe, this was going on all while Ledeen was chortling over Asghari…nor does this current report give much info on how much screwing around with Iran’s borders with Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraqi and their minorities is being orchestrated by covert activity…I am all for sending messages BUT it has reached over-aggressive now and it appears that the gains DO NOT outweigh the risks in some of this…not when so many people from so many nations are exposed …along with some dire geo-political consequences …MANAGING RISKS has NEVER been an Israeli strength, and I say that from a pro-Israel position…nor is it a US neo- con, I am biased here as I am very anti-neo-con… and I get nervous think about Israelis and neo-con s working togther or feeding each other intel…there is also a very human element to this also…most of these agents are fairly young 20’s and 30’s and have a woman and a baby somewhere that will have there lives changed forever because they are taken out…but the Ledeens of this world just keep chortling…I am trying to keep in a spititual mood…it’s Lent,close to Passover and Easter and I am happy about the Arab Summit…but somethimes you know too well how much can go wrong just due to a few fricking phone calls…
Mar 26, 2007 - 10:44 pm Bill Bradley:David Dahan was the head of the Israeli Defense Ministry mission in Europe, not the defense minister.
Mar 27, 2007 - 8:01 am CADTS:This is gonna be a long response…so hang on to your britches kids….
Carole, its ridiculous of you to say I hate Hillary. My arguments are political — not personal. For you to think otherwise is simply ridiculous and, rather misinformed. Do me a favor and read my comments in the context of a political campaign and outside the comfortable moderate/liberal political bubble of California — particularly within the Bay Area.
Frankly, the Democrats need a candidate who can actually WIN in the general. If anyone bothered to look at her polling in key states for the last two years (and even within her “home state” of New York her negatives are in the high 40’s.). In a general election, she will lose the following key states — Missouri, Indiana, Ohio and, in all likelihood, Florida.
As I said before, all of us (by and large) on this blog, live in the political bubble of moderate California politics. While that is great, there is a danger there too as voters. All too often (and I am guilty of it too), we fail to see the forest for the trees here. We fail to recognize why Democrats lost the last two election cycles — cycles that were eminently winnable. In 2000, Gore acted like the heir apparent and yet told Clinton to f(*&)(*& himself. His lack of loyalty gave why to inherent voter distrust. The campaign team lacked direction and a real leader — Roy Neel couldn’t run a successful bottled water stand in the Mojave in my opinion. Kerry suffered from much the same problem: Mary Beth Cahill was an AWFUL campaign manager whose personal insecurities doomed the campaign’s rapid response.
Now, where is Hillary. She has an amazing team run by Patti Solis Doyle who is an ass-kicking,beyond brilliant political strategist. Her communications staff is pretty darn good and I know some of her Iowa people. Her field game is certainly just as good as anyone else within the early primary states.
But the essential problem is the candidate — she needs to make this race about something more than herself. She needs to show the American public that her “mission” is not one of self-aggrandizement and political ambition.
Because folks, like or not, thats just ONE of the negative perceptions she is fighting against in those key states. She needs to stop making dumb-ass rookie mistakes like the Geffen thing, faking a southern accent at the Selma event,etc — cause these things just add to the negative perception.
Do any of you on this blog really think that Hillary Clinton will sell in the South or the Midwest? Can ANYONE tell me that, in a race against Mitt Romney or, even McCain, that Hillary Clinton will win. I challenge any of you to show me REAL numbers that indicate that her negatives have moved off the 50% or worse numbers she has in those states. In a highly charged general election, things are multiplied ten-fold and she will lose the perception war before the race even begins.
Barbara, you aren’t the only “REAL DTS” because, in point of fact, I didn’t vote for Phil. I have long since decided that leadership means more than party — thats why I am with you on other candidates. But, like you, I am inclined to vote for the Democrat over any of the other knuckleheads on the Reep side because they are servants of this ultra-conservative wing that has taken hold of their party.
BB, I could care less what Bible she uses — because the likelihood is that she won’t get that chance.
Here is the bottom line — I would prefer a Democrat become the next President and move the country back to the middle. Frankly, I am sick of (*&)(*&)(ing losing to morons like GWB who sell this country to the highest bidder.
No one is saying that Hillary Clinton couldn’t be a great President — in fact, I happen to believe just the opposite and I will happily vote for her if she is the nominee.
However, I further believe, if rather strongly, that Mrs. Clinton — despite her incredible ability — cannot overcome the inherent inadequacies of her personality and the negative feelings the public at large has toward her. She can drop all the dimes she wants on TV, DM and on grassroots — but until she changes that underlying negative dynamic, she faces an uphill climb in the 2008 presidential race.
Mar 27, 2007 - 10:51 am Barbara:David Dahan was the head of the Israeli Defense Ministry mission in Europe, not the defense minister.
Correct - I was typing fast and thinking faster…that was his title…he headed up “covert action” more than intel….he did not commit suicide…as I said, Israeli forte is not:risk management…I know that for a fact
Mar 27, 2007 - 11:04 am Wilbur:I’d say that is a pretty substantive and persuasive analysis, CADTS, articulating better than I could what’s been going on re: HRC in my ‘gut.’ I encounter many Joe Six-Packs who would walk through fire to vote AGAINST her, something I don’t see as to any other candidate on either side of the aisle. I too will support her if she’s the nominee - she’s fine on substance in most areas save her overcautious stance re: the war - but worry that her “personality” negatives will dampen Dem turnout and boost that of the Reeps.
Mar 27, 2007 - 11:15 am Barbara:CADTS:Barbara, you aren’t the only “REAL DTS” because in point of fact, I didn’t vote for Phil. I have long since decided that leadership means more than party -
Really …I have been reading you since you first appeared on the scene trashing Cathy Calfo …I would have sworn you were some powerful Dem female Political Partisan consultant …
Mar 27, 2007 - 11:19 am Bill Bradley:(you called me “dearie” can’t see a guy doing that… and then you obviously feel powerful enough to hit Phil very hard, make snide remarks about Antonio’s marriage, make mischief with Susan Kennedy, and advocate for (I always forget his name) but it is that guy heading up Education that you see as a potential great gov ..and do it all without worrying about retaliation) …but if you say you are just like me just a dts voter with an above average interest in politics, current events , world affairs …well heck why shouldn’t I believe you….
A political campaign should be a dynamic, not static, venture. Campaigns exist in a relativistic universe, not an absolutist universe. There are many dynamics at work here, some of them with powerful historical themes which transcend a question about an individual personality.
That said, Hillary has to improve as a candidate.
She improved significantly between Carson City last month and Las Vegas last weekend.
Phil Angelides never improved as a candidate. In fact, he regressed over the last couple of years. This is not that.
Mar 27, 2007 - 11:24 am RM 'Auros' Harman:I have to say, while I’m not as pessimistic as CADTS — I think Hillary could win… But I think we’d have a much better shot with just about any of our other credible candidates (Richardson, Edwards, Obama, and of course Al “70% approval rating in a recent poll” Gore if he gets in). Hillary charges up the right-wing activists like nobody else on the planet. Having your party’s central figure inspire the OTHER party more than your own is just… not good.
Great Senator, great human being… lousy candidate.
Mar 27, 2007 - 12:29 pm CADTS:Barbara:
Two things…you should know I have learned a great deal more about Middle East politics and frankly recognize how limited my knowledge is on the issue. So, kudos to you for educating me.
The second thing is, I criticized Cathy Calfo because she is a lousy manager and was clearly out of her depth. Keep in mind, I also criticized Phil and Bob Mulholland equally hard for the same reasons. Sure enough, I was damn near perfect on each score.
I didn’t make mischief with Antonio — everyone who follows politics knows he had “problems” in his marriage — it was actually a public thing for Antonio some months ago. As for the Kennedy thing, I made statements that may have occured knowing how powerful the personalities of Steve Schmidt and Susan Kennedy are and how powerful personalities — combined with highly charged partisan atmosphere — has caused problems. In retrospect, I probably shouldn’t have said anything because I was wrong.
The “education guy” is Jack O’Connell. He is actually exploring a run for Governor now and would be a great Democratic, appeal to the growing Central Valley demographics candidate. A good guy with a great story — think a quieter, non-southern John Edwards.
As for everything else, you can only make your own decisions on these things and whether or not you believe me is irrelevant. It is an opinion based on facts and experience — nothing more.
BB, I am not comparing Hillary to Phil. Hillary is brilliant, capable and has the skills to win. Phil, frankly, is more like Al Gore of 2000 — winey, unfocused and unbelievably convinced that he is, and should be, the “big man” for no other reason is a sense of entitlement.
My problem is this: Can she overcome the negative perceptions she has in a campaign that will magnify those long-held beliefs ten-fold.
BB, you are right, campaigns are relative. You are equally correct in saying campaigns are dynamic. 1992 is not 2008 — I get that. And she has dramatically improved as a candidate — but she is still very robotic in the big screen context.
More importantly, consistently bad numbers over a multi-year period do not lie– and they do a great deal to lend credence to my argument. Her public perception is not good across the board — the bigger question is can she overcome it?
Frankly, I don’t see how regardless of the amount of money she raises — which can be a turnoff.
But hey, as I said, I have been wrong before.
Mar 27, 2007 - 12:36 pm Barbara:Cadts,
Mar 27, 2007 - 1:25 pm Bill Bradley:Just keep posting! …it hardly matters if you are a DTS or not … you more than add to the interesting conversations around here that’s for sure!…I do not understand all the campaign “ins and outs”… just who and what hits me as good for where I would like to see this country go…I think the Dems are in a good place with their top 3-4 …I will vote for any of them without hesitation over Rudy or MCcain or the TV actor, if he gets in …Have a great day!
Very funny stuff!
Mar 27, 2007 - 2:22 pm CADTS:BB…you and your crazy sarcasm.
Mar 27, 2007 - 3:40 pm Bill Bradley:Come again?
Mar 27, 2007 - 6:39 pm carole w:meow:)
Mar 28, 2007 - 8:44 pm