Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is on the international scene
again this week, on a three-day trip to Canada where he’ll sign
greenhouse accords with two provinces and promote trade.
** AL QAEDA’S AMERICAN PRISONERS STILL NOT LOCATED. An 18th day of searching by thousands of US troops south of Baghdad for the two remaining American soldiers captured in an ambush by Al Qaeda has ended. The prisoners have still not been located.
** KYRGYZSTAN PRIME MINISTER POISONED IN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT. The prime minister of this impoverished, mountainous Central Asian state, a former Soviet republic that is now site of America’s only remaining base in Central Asia, was poisoned earlier this month in an assassination attempt. This is another big problem area for the US. The politics are tumultuous. The parliament’s defense committee voted to expel the US from its base at Manas Airport outside the capital city of Bishkek, formerly Frunze in the Soviet era. The prime minister and president disagree. I’ll have a fuller report another time.
I remember hearing Obama had been selected and wondering, who on earth is that guy? The choice was John Kerry’s. Ultimately. Kerry himself, impressed by Obama during an April 2004 campaign swing, had put his name in the hopper, along with several others. Kerry campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill made the fateful pick, and Kerry agreed.
** VILLARAIGOSA WILL ENDORSE CLINTON. NWN has learned that the “major announcement” tomorrow at UCLA will be the endorsement of Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa of Senator Hillary Clinton for president. It’s not a big surprise, in that Villaraigosa’s close ally, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, is national co-chairman for Clinton and his former campaign manager, Ace Smith, is Clinton’s California director. Both were previously revealed here.
** HILLARY TO NEVADA. Senator Hillary Clinton campaigns in Nevada tomorrow, meeting with the culinary workers in Las Vegas before holding a noon town hall meeting in North Las Vegas. Her town hall in Reno a few weeks ago drew a whopping 3500 people. Clinton leads in the polls in Nevada, the second-in-the-nation contest in the Democratic presidential race.
** HILLARY, OBAMA, AND EDWARDS TO CALIFORNIA. The top three Democratic presidential candidates all make it to California this week. Hillary Clinton arrives tomorrow in LA, swinging over from Vegas. She’ll go to UCLA for a “major announcement.” One clue is that the event is at a preschool. On Thursday, she’ll give a speech in Silicon Valley. In between, she’ll do some fundraising.
As will John Edwards, who arrives later in the week. He actually has a $15 per person fundraiser on Thursday in San Jose, a week for the grassroots to get some personal access to him.
Barack Obama will be in California over the weekend for fundraising, and something else TBA.
** IS IMMIGRATION HURTING MCCAIN? Longtime NWN readers know I have a problem with robopolls. That said, it is interesting that the new Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney now shading John McCain for second place nationally in the Republican presidential race. A week ago, he was six points behind. What’s happened in the last week? Lots of talk about immigration policy. Rudy Giuliani, also a past advocate of illegal immigratn rights, has adopted a lower profile and somewhat more negative view of the current legislation. But McCain’s name is on that legislation.
** ON THE ROAD AGAIN. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is on the road again this week, this time spending three days in Canada. There he will sign memorandums of understanding with the premiers of two Canadian provinces — British Columbia, which I’ve already reported on, and Ontario — to share information on climate change, begin to monitor greenhouse gas emissions, promote renewable energy, and begin to develop a cap & trade carbon market. (The last point is controversial with some, advocates of hard-and-fast regulation who want hardline regulation to happen first, and apparently think the law California passed last year is less vague than it is.)
Schwarzenegger and his band of 52 business folks along for the trip will also promote California products and services. The trip is being paid for by the California protocol fund, i.e., through a Chamber of Commerce-associated entity using undisclosed private contributions. This is controversial as well, as well it should be.
The practice of private finance of public trips began with Governor Pete Wilson’s administration in the early ’90s. I wrote about it then to expose it, and the state’s Fair Political Practices Commission took up the issue. But Sacramento Bee columnist Dan Walters defended the practice, and then Controller Gray Davis’s appointee went missing when a vote was taken, and that was that.
Meanwhile, legislative leaders continue to haggle over and hassle with each other over term limits and redistricting reform. As I’ve said before, nothing will be settled on that front absent Schwarzenegger and the top leaders getting together. And that won’t happen for awhile.
** OBAMA OFFERS UNIVERSAL HEALTH CARE PLAN. Senator Barack Obama will unveil his universal health care plan today in a speech in Iowa. He says it will end up costing the average consumer $2500 a year less, and will be financed through an employer mandate and repeal of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest taxpayers.
** AL QAEDA’S AMERICAN PRISONERS STILL NOT LOCATED. Thousands of American troops are now in the midst of an 18th day of searching for the remaining two US soldiers captured by Al Qaeda in an ambush south of Baghdad. They have had no luck so far. But the activity may be preventing Al Qaeda from having the time and space to film the captives in a propaganda bonanza.
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices are around $64 per barrel.
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Jonas Blane:We’ll never get those guys back from Al Qaeda. Not alive, anyway.
May 29, 2007 - 8:04 am Ann:How much time is Schwarzenegger spending in Sacramento?
May 29, 2007 - 8:15 am Capitol Boy:Gray Davis partly responsible for private funding of state junkets. Boy, am I ever shocked.
May 29, 2007 - 8:31 am Bill Bradley:I’m not monitoring his movements, but I think Schwarzenegger is in the capital about three days a week.
May 29, 2007 - 8:42 am Ann:Is that enough?
May 29, 2007 - 9:07 am Sacramento Solon:It’s about the same as the legislature…
May 29, 2007 - 9:37 am Bill Bradley:I don’t know if it’s enough, but it seems to be working pretty well.
May 29, 2007 - 9:51 am Brasky:Bill, will you be going to the 2007 Republican Assembly National Convention this August in St. Louis? The “grassroots” Republicans will be endorsing a presidential candidate.
You’d have to go to the Planters factory to see as many nuts…
May 29, 2007 - 9:54 am Bill Bradley:St. Louis in August. I might miss that.
May 29, 2007 - 10:01 am richard locicero:Obama’s Health care plan sound suspiciously like that of John Edwards.
May 29, 2007 - 10:12 am Brasky:Common Bill — the humidity is a small price to pay for such great video. Just put on a Pajamas Media press pass and you’ll fit right in. You could let us know what’s going on inside that nutshell!
May 29, 2007 - 10:17 am Bill Bradley:Richard, I think Edwards would require all to buy in and Obama would not.
May 29, 2007 - 11:14 am Bill Bradley:Oh, and great idea for St. Louis video there …
May 29, 2007 - 11:15 am Ann:Three days a week doesn’t seem like enough time for Schwarzenegger to spend in the Capitol.
May 29, 2007 - 11:47 am Capitol Boy:The way the system works now, it’s probably enough.
May 29, 2007 - 12:04 pm Brasky:“Amnesty” is another reason for the Right to hate McCain. I can’t see “Meat” Romney being a viable alternative, certainly not after Thompson or Newty get into the race. “Meat” is decidedly NOT what’s for dinner.
If the Right can rally around a single candidate, McCain is in big trouble. If they are fractured or demoralized (aw, so sad), then he can win the primary.
May 29, 2007 - 12:19 pm Kandy Kid:Ann, there are plenty of substantive areas to find fault with Arnold’s leadership. With instant communications and the Internet available, not spending enough time in Sacramento seems needlessly petty.
As we enter serious state budget negotiations, Arnold’s failed promises to eliminate the structural deficit and cut up the state’s credit card are much more timely topics.
May 29, 2007 - 12:39 pm Bill Bradley:Exactly how would one go about eliminating the structural deficit?
The cuts still seem a little vague to me.
May 29, 2007 - 12:52 pm Bill Bradley:I mentioned the Rasmussen poll as a possible index of trouble for McCain on immigration, not Romney strength.
May 29, 2007 - 12:54 pm Kandy Kid:Eliminating the structural deficit is something most successful household do every month — spend no more than you take in.
For FY 2007-08, the May revision proposes the state General Fund will take in $102.2 billion of revenue and spend $103.7 billion. While some fiscally irresponsible accounting is used on both sides of that equation, the Governor has dropped the pretence of trying to make those most basic numbers match.
May 29, 2007 - 1:05 pm Bill Bradley:KK, that is incredibly vague!
No one expects the Flash Report guys to answer that question when they come here, but you might try to.
May 29, 2007 - 1:08 pm Barbara:well, Hillary better hope that Antonio can help her a heck of a lot more than he did Reiners universerval pre-school ballot measure!!!!…
Westly got on early and has the right pick! …and he and his candidate will come out winners!
May 29, 2007 - 1:25 pm Brasky:Go OBAMA and go WESTLY …sheesh! I have not said “go Westly!” in about a year! that was fun!
Bill — yes. “Meat” is just picking-up support that is falling from McCain’s plate. If someone with good conservative credentials gets into the race, “Meat” won’t be around much longer and McCain will be in trouble.
May 29, 2007 - 1:39 pm Bill Bradley:Barbara, does this mean that Antonio is no longer perfect?
May 29, 2007 - 1:40 pm Brasky:What reasons would the Right have to support McCain?
Seriously - I don’t think the Hawks like him. The America First folks don’t cotton to him. Religious conservatives - I don’t think so. Republican politicos hate his campaign finance stuff.
Maybe the anti-abortionists and gun rights folks? Deficit hawks? Military families?
May 29, 2007 - 1:46 pm Kandy Kid:Bill, there are many things that could be done on both sides of the revenue/spending equation if you held a balanced budget as a higher value than interest group and anti-tax politics. Sadly, we whip out the credit card and charge future generations for the things we think we cannot live without now. I do not have time for a full discussion now, but maybe as the budget process rolls along I can work in a few key points along with my occasional wine recommendations.
Here is a start:
Stop giving cost of living increases to all programs and recipients until the General Fund is in balance. If you do not have enough money now, stop promising more money to people until you are in the black. On a family level it would be like turning off the cable tv and cancelling summer vacations. Certainly drastic steps that cause minor pain, but they would not compromise the family mission.
On the revenue side – how about a temporary 1/4 cent sales tax to pay off the deficit reduction bonds? In the family setting, it would be like taking a second job, regrettable but only temporary until things get better. Republicans in the legislature would oppose it in isolation, but if the Governor paired it with eliminating COLAs for everything in the budget, he might be surprised how many GOP votes he could find if he demonstrated a commitment to fiscal discipline instead of contempt for those who disagree.
May 29, 2007 - 2:01 pm Barbara:Mr Bradley….you need new glasses!!!!…go back to that whole discussion we had re:that silly Bruck piece…I told you then, I adore Antonio ….warts and all!
BTW, if there is one rule in life for sure ….intriguing men, and especially Great Men are NEVER perfect!!!!…look at you Mr. Bradley!!!
Hey! speaking of intriguing men…where is our NWN SOOTH?
The only man on earth that understands me!!! Go Soothie!!!(the other one is in …I started to say heaven…but I don’t think he is there …oh yeah, he is in OLAM HA BA !!!…translated from Hebrew …means “The World To Come”!!!) mr. Bradley, if Sooth is not a man don’t tell me that will spoil everything!!!) Toodles!!!!
May 29, 2007 - 2:02 pm Ann:Antonio is a very good endorsement for Hillary.
May 29, 2007 - 2:36 pm richard locicero:Excuse me KK but why a “temporary” quarter cent raise in the sales tax? How about a higher bracket in the state income tax for those above a certain level?
May 29, 2007 - 2:41 pm Capitol Boy:Why does all talk of tax increases have to be regressive?
Clinton is going to need all the help she can get to get that nomination.
May 29, 2007 - 2:51 pm Juan Cortina:re: “Eliminating the structural deficit is something most successful household do every month — spend no more than you take in.”
That’s funny; I had a personal structural deficit that I took care of by bringing more money home.
May 29, 2007 - 2:55 pm Brasky:General Cortina - pillaging for fun and profit?
May 29, 2007 - 3:30 pm RM 'Auros' Harman:I’ll be working at the $15 fundraiser at SJSU on Thursday. Any other NWN readers are welcome to say hi.
Edwards’ health plan does require that everybody be covered somehow — by an employer, by the local “health market” gov’t plan (which people will have the option to buy into), or by a private plan. Obama’s doesn’t? If not, I think that’s a big flaw, relative to Edwards. A shame. I’ve been very favorably impressed with Obama’s other substantive policies, as they’ve become available…
If it really does shake out as Obama vs Clinton as the clear, unshakable frontrunners, I’ll be fully in the Obama camp. And if he wins, I hope Westly’s association with him (and his phenomenal fundraising success — have you seen Obama’s numbers out of NorCal? I believe the correct word to describe them is: “Eep!”) will help put him in the lead for the ‘10 nomination for Gov.
May 29, 2007 - 4:12 pm RM 'Auros' Harman:KK, I do agree that the structural deficit needs to be dealt with, but why is it that your proposals are uniformly regressive, with the costs falling squarely on those who can least afford them? If we’re having a temporary hike in taxes, how about hitting things like investment income, resource extraction (encourages efficiency and industrial recycling!), and incomes over $1M?
May 29, 2007 - 4:16 pm Bill Bradley:Barbara, I will not tell you that Soothsayer is a woman.
May 29, 2007 - 4:33 pm Bill Bradley:RM, I’m no expert on the Obama health care plan and am picking it up on the fly.
Incidentally, the Schwarzenegger health care plan is criticized by Democrats for requiring all to buy in.
May 29, 2007 - 4:36 pm Kandy Kid:This is great. In about two hours we have generated more ideas and conversation about eliminating the structural deficit than the legislature has discussed all year.
In order to keep the discussions going in a realistic manner, you can only gore your own ox, because it is too easy to allocate pain to others. Democratic folks can only propose spending reductions. Republicans can only propose tax increases. Each dollar of reduced spending is matched by a dollar of increased revenue.
In the spirit of compromise, I would be willing to split the temporary revenue increase 50% sales tax/50% millionaires’ surtax, but both must go away once the structural deficit has been eliminated and a 5 percent reserve is built up.
Are my Democratic friends willing to accept no COLAs, including education?? If not, the amount of new revenue goes down…
May 29, 2007 - 4:36 pm Dana:KK, do the robobudget provisions (e.g. Prop 98) cause troubles for the revenue side? My understanding is whenever extra money goes on the table education automatically gets a mandated slice, so taxing your way out of deficit at the state level is hard (albeit perhaps not impossible).
May 29, 2007 - 4:56 pm Brasky:Kid - I’m a Democrat and I could suggest some program cuts, but my choices would quickly hinder my anonymity. And given the recent rash of political poisonings, I’d feel safer not saying.
You should provide us with a target goal in real dollars though so those playing can more easily play this budget game. What is the structural deficit these days?
May 29, 2007 - 4:58 pm Brasky:Dana - I think if you coordinate your budget cuts and tax increases, you can avoid that problem.
Yes? No? Anyone?
May 29, 2007 - 5:02 pm Barbara:Mr. Bradley:Barbara, I will not tell you that Soothsayer is a woman.
that should be in your main post! best news I heard all day!
May 29, 2007 - 5:17 pm Sacramento Solon:Barbara,
All he said was that he wouldn’t tell you Sooth was a woman. He didn’t say Sooth wasn’t a woman!
How’s life at Old Soul?
May 29, 2007 - 5:23 pm Kandy Kid:Excellent point Dana. I was trying to keep the exercise simple.
Prop. 98 rakes off about 50% of all new tax revenue. One of the benefits of using a temporary tax to pay off a specific item such as the deficit recovery bonds is it would be easier keep those revenues from being built into the Prop. 98 base. Just as the tax proposals contained in all of the health care bills assume no Prop 98 rake off (the schools would otherwise take $45 billion of SB 840’s $90 billion), so will our structural deficit elimination exercise.
See, there is even flexibility in Prop 98 when people want to agree for a higher purpose. This is not hard, it just takes leaders who want to solve the problem and are willing to tell their constituencies, “Sorry, can’t help you this time.”
May 29, 2007 - 5:30 pm Brasky:“KYRGYZSTAN PRIME MINISTER POISONED IN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT. ”
It’s like some twisted game of Clue — anytime you say “I suggest it was the Former KGB Agent, in the Library, with Poison,” you would be right.
May 29, 2007 - 5:33 pm Barbara:actually,”AL Hayat” reporting today that Muqtada al-Sadr is pushing hard all around the country and requesting for reconciliation among the country’s various political factions, religious sects and local governments, is the best news all day…let’s hope he can pull it off…now most reports have us promising Iran that the next PM will NOT be a former Baathists, e.g., Iyad Allawi ….so I wonder who the next PM will be or which bloc he will come from? ….the plot thickens!…
May 29, 2007 - 5:36 pm Jonathan Hemlock:I doubt that endorsements will sway many voters in the Presidential race.
May 29, 2007 - 5:36 pm Kandy Kid:Brasky, the heavily manipulated view of the structural deficit contained in the May Revision is $1.5 billion. A more realistic figure is $5 billion — allowing for things like the unapproved Indian gaming contracts, lower capital gains receipts, prison reform measures and retiree health care payments.
Budget Nun Liz Hill provides a good list of wishful thinking items here — http://www.lao.ca.gov/2007/may_revise/may_revise_051507.pdf
May 29, 2007 - 5:43 pm Barbara:Sac Solon…well,I don’t believe for a moment Sooth is a woman….
May 29, 2007 - 5:44 pm Barbara:been out of town on weekends…so no Old Soul…I have a new place in St. Helena! and a great pizza place in Tiburon on the waterfront owned by a very well traveled brother and sister!
We need to all keep a proper perspective on the budget. The law does not require us to have a Balanced Budget …just bring that baby in TIMELY….Go California!
I am in my cheerleading mode today! Lost all control with one little “GO Westly!” and all this talk about Sooth!!! heck! where is Carole? I was a great cheerleader!
May 29, 2007 - 5:55 pm Kandy Kid:Something great is going to happen! I feel really great today! Go NWN! Toodles!
I hope that one day Barbara will cheer for fiscally responsible principles that we all know are needed to protect California’s long term health. Barbara is right, and it is appalling, that state law does not require a balanced budget. The Governor is only required to present a balanced budget, at which everyone then points and laughs.
May 29, 2007 - 6:06 pm Bill Bradley:Don’t be so sure. With its Soviet era overseer and first president, Askar Akayev, now a math professor in Moscow, Kyrgyz politics are very complicated.
>Brasky :
May 29, 2007 - 6:10 pm Brasky:“KYRGYZSTAN PRIME MINISTER POISONED IN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT. ”
It’s like some twisted game of Clue — anytime you say “I suggest it was the Former KGB Agent, in the Library, with Poison,” you would be right.
May 29, 2007 05:33 PM
Kid - putting together a 50/50 new tax/budget cut plan to span $5 billion could be done by you and I on the back of a ceral box.
Passing it will never, ever happen.
But keep tryin’ Kid!
May 29, 2007 - 6:13 pm Sacramento Solon:The bill that has been indentifed as this year’s budget bill, SB 77, is heading to conference committee as today the Senate failed to concur in Assembly amendments.
Over two weeks from the deadline and they have a bill in conference. Am I getting forgetful in my old age or is this early?
Yes,I know, it’s still a long way to the finish line. Big Five has to meet and all that stuff, but this isn’t the worse sign I’ve ever seen.
May 29, 2007 - 6:34 pm Barbara:On KYRGYZSTAN US Base
i don’t think they will close it in the end…it would not be a good sign after Uzbekistan actions…we have to pay attention to these countries …in any event, between the shooting and all the protests that are going on over constitution, economy, elections, etc..and the block in parliament that does want it closed …I think we will be paying a higher rent …much higher …than last year …if we aren’t already…we should pay it …whatever the price…
May 29, 2007 - 7:03 pm richard locicero:Well Russia is flexing its muscles and letting its neighbors know that if they want gas or petrol they better play ball with Moscow. I’ve seen the reports and Putin’s new nationalism is incredibly popular at home. So Krygyzstan may be forced into closing those bases as the old empire strikes back.
May 29, 2007 - 7:26 pm carole w:Barbara,
May 29, 2007 - 7:30 pm Ann:Re: “GO WESTLY”
You are the smartest woman in the universe. I can’t wait for the next gubernatorial elections. I hope Westly throws his hat in the race.
Westly was the best pick last year for the Democrats, that’s for sure.
May 29, 2007 - 10:55 pm Jonas Blane:How do you keep track of all that stuff in Central Asia? I’d never heard of Krygystan before this year.
May 30, 2007 - 6:25 am Bill Bradley:It’s not second nature.
May 30, 2007 - 8:37 am Capitol Boy:Westly would have lost to Schwarzenegger, too. It wouldn’t have been as ridiculous.
May 30, 2007 - 12:50 pm RM 'Auros' Harman:Yeah, I think in some ways Angelides may have saved Westly some trouble — people seem to have trouble, these days, with the idea of re-nominating a candidate who lost a general election. Whereas, a candidate who lost a primary to a candidate who went on to lose, may get a second look. (How many Dem voters do you think feel “buyer’s remorse” about Kerry? If it weren’t for the extraordinary strength of the other frontrunners, Edwards would be getting a huge boost from that, I think…)
May 30, 2007 - 5:30 pm Bill Bradley:Edwards might be the most complete candidate in either party, but we may never know that. Running third, he has to move more on a tangent than I think advisable for a general election just to gain and maintain traction, and he still may fall short of real contention for the nomination.
May 30, 2007 - 5:54 pm Bill Bradley:… Although, actually, a friend of mine went to school in Kyrgyzstan.
Something which was not immediately apparent.
>Jonas Blane :
May 30, 2007 - 6:03 pm Barbara:How do you keep track of all that stuff in Central Asia? I’d never heard of Krygystan before this year.
May 30, 2007 06:25 AM
Bill Bradley :
It’s not second nature.
May 30, 2007 08:37 AM
I love Central Asia. I am drawn to countries and lands that are or were inhabited by nomads on horesback…I met a man once in Uzbekistan that told me he was related to Genghis Khan…
May 30, 2007 - 7:07 pm NickM:Brasky - don’t be so sure. Sometimes, it’s in the Conservatory.
IMO the most painless way to raise significant revenue would be to make some portion of punitive damages payable to the state rather than the plaintiff. Realistically, you could add close to a half a billion a year from that. SB 1102 of 2004 established such a law, but it sunsetted in 2006, and SB 832 to reinstate it was vetoed in 2006 (the veto message complained about the bill being a gut-and-amend without hearings).
For tax increases, there is a sales tax exemption for in-state transactions involving sellers who sell only on the internet that could be done away with - it’s not clear how much money is at stake, but in this case it’s also less fair to have the exemption (why should one ebay or website dealer of collectibles be sales tax exempt and another have to charge sales tax to in-state buyers because the second dealer sets up a booth at an antique fair once a year?).
May 31, 2007 - 12:55 pm Bill Bradley:I know a woman descended from Genghis Khan. Hold the phones!
May 31, 2007 - 5:21 pm Barbara:“I met a man once in Uzbekistan that told me he was related to Genghis Khan…”
Well I only traveled around Central Asis with my Israeli boyfriend…when I told him what the guy said …he said …”Oh they all say that!” But then because he knew the guy that said it…he also added …something like …now in his case …it might really be true!…
Jun 1, 2007 - 10:11 am RM 'Auros' Harman:We’re probably all descended from Genghis Khan, if he had any kids at all.
Jun 1, 2007 - 11:50 am Barbara:Nooooooo!….he had a dynasty ! Kublai Khan was his grandson… I love Genghis …he does not get a fair shake by most historians…and this guy may have his bood running thru him. perchance we met up in NY last Thanksgiving time….when I saw who he had become …the boast did not seem so farfetched…
Jun 1, 2007 - 1:39 pm Bill Bradley:Excuse me, Barbara. Genghis Khan doesn’t get a fair shake?
This is now focusing in for me, it’s the episode from the original Star Trek series, entitled “Space Seed.”
The Enterprise has discovered a ship that is a few hundred years old, containing dozens of extraordinarily fit young men and women, including one Khan Noonien Singh …
Jun 1, 2007 - 7:02 pm NickM:Timur Kurkhan doesn’t get a fair shake.
Jun 3, 2007 - 2:40 pm