Osama bin Laden in his heyday following the 9/11 attacks. The
U.S. government releases a report today on the resurgence of
Al Qaeda, but bin Laden himself has been curiously absent.
** WAITING FOR FRED. MSNBC is reporting that Fred Thompson may wait until September to declare his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination. He’s running second in most national polls and leads in the early states of Nevada and South Carolina. The former senator and Law & Order star has offices up in Nashville, Tennessee and McLean, Virginia (outside Washington).
He had been expected to declare in the first half of July. But that just ended. Many enthusiasts believed he would go on the 4th, but that was never in the cards. I’ve heard, and reported, that he might declare in August, while another source told me it will be after Labor Day. MSNBC reports the announcement “could slide into early September.” Meanwhile, Thompson enthusiast and Tennessee Congressman Zach Womp said that he expects Thompson to get in any day now.
** “FAB FOUR” MEET ON CALI BUDGET. The Big Five minus one, the one being Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, have been talking throughout the day about the California budget impasse. And have just met, or are just meeting now. Frankly, all these balls in the air are starting to blur a bit. The four are the two Democratic legislative leaders, Don Perata and Fabian Nunez, and the two Republican legislative leaders, Dick Ackerman and Mike Villines. No agreements yet, but there does seem to be whittling in advance of tomorrow’s scheduled budget vote. There’s still something quite weightless about this budget fight that’s not a fight. Schwarzenegger, incidentally, is off the trail tomorrow, holding private meetings in and around the Capitol.
** CRUCIAL BACKING FOR ARNOLD’S NEW AIR BOARD CHIEF. As expected, Mary Nichols, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s new pick to run the California Air Resources Board, which is charged as the lead agency in developing the implementation of the state’s landmark climate change law, won the backing earlier today of Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata and Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez. Nichols appeared before the Senate Rules Committee this morning for a preliminary run-through on her confirmation. She pledged to be aggressive in working to make the law a success.
** ANALYZING THE ANALYSIS. THAT’S IT? So there it is just below, all 700-odd words of it, about the size of an average column. The unclassified portion of the National Intelligence Estimate on the terrorist threat. The classified portion is said to be not quite twice as much more. What’s remarkable about it is how obvious the level of information is and how vague the findings are. That, and the fact that the administration is saying America is more vulnerable today to attack than at any time since the 9/11 period.
Which is not exactly an implicit endorsement of the course the country’s been on. One could just as easily accept everything in that document at face value and use it to indict the Bush administration and its political allies.
One thing in particular is of interest, and that’s the notion of the huge resurgence of Al Qaeda itself. Which Al Qaeda is that? The original Al Qaeda, the one that orchestrated the 9/11 attacks that shook America and the Madrid attacks that brought down the Spanish government? Or more of an affiliate Al Qaeda, inspired by and perhaps in some contact with the original group?
That certainly seems to be the case with Al Qaeda in Iraq, which didn’t exist before the US invasion. Al Qaeda in Iraq exists because of the failures of the US policy there, and now it is a proving ground for a new generation of terrorists. And what of the “doctors’ plot” in Britain, with their failed attacks on London and Glasgow a couple of weeks ago? How did that cell come into being? Directed by the original Al Qaeda, or an offshoot of some inspired affiliate? If you’re going to fight something, you have to understand it. This National Intelligence Estimate is a paltry document.
** THE UNCLASSIFIED PORTION OF THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON THE TERRORIST THREAT. IN ITS ENTIRETY. We judge the US Homeland will face a persistent and evolving terrorist threat over the next three years. The main threat comes from Islamic terrorist groups and cells, especially al-Qa’ida, driven by their undiminished intent to attack the Homeland and a continued effort by these terrorist groups to adapt and improve their capabilities.
We assess that greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of al-Qa’ida to attack the US Homeland again and have led terrorist groups to perceive the Homeland as a harder target to strike than on 9/11. These measures have helped disrupt known plots against the United States since 9/11.
• We are concerned, however, that this level of international cooperation may wane as 9/11 becomes a more distant memory and perceptions of the threat diverge.
Al-Qa’ida is and will remain the most serious terrorist threat to the Homeland, as its central leadership continues to plan high-impact plots, while pushing others in extremist Sunni communities to mimic its efforts and to supplement its capabilities. We assess the group has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: a safehaven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational lieutenants, and its top leadership. Although we have discovered only a handful of individuals in the United States with ties to al-Qa’ida senior leadership since 9/11, we judge that al-Qa’ida will intensify its efforts to put operatives here.
• As a result, we judge that the United States currently is in a heightened threat
environment.
We assess that al-Qa’ida will continue to enhance its capabilities to attack the Homeland through greater cooperation with regional terrorist groups. Of note, we assess that al-Qa’ida will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the Homeland. In addition, we assess that its association with AQI helps al-Qa’ida to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and to recruit and
indoctrinate operatives, including for Homeland attacks.
We assess that al-Qa’ida’s Homeland plotting is likely to continue to focus on prominent political, economic, and infrastructure targets with the goal of producing mass casualties, visually dramatic destruction, significant economic aftershocks, and/or fear among the US population. The group is proficient with conventional small arms and improvised explosive devices, and is innovative in creating new capabilities and overcoming security obstacles.
• We assess that al-Qa’ida will continue to try to acquire and employ chemical,
biological, radiological, or nuclear material in attacks and would not hesitate to use them if it develops what it deems is sufficient capability.
We assess Lebanese Hizballah, which has conducted anti-US attacks outside the United States in the past, may be more likely to consider attacking the Homeland over the next three years if it perceives the United States as posing a direct threat to the group or Iran.
We assess that the spread of radical—especially Salafi—Internet sites, increasingly aggressive anti-US rhetoric and actions, and the growing number of radical, self-generating cells in Western countries indicate that the radical and violent segment of the West’s Muslim population is expanding, including in the United States. The arrest and prosecution by US law enforcement of a small number of violent Islamic extremists inside the United States— who are becoming more connected ideologically, virtually, and/or in a physical sense to the global extremist movement—points to the possibility that others may become sufficiently radicalized that they will view the use of violence here as legitimate. We assess that this internal Muslim terrorist threat is not likely to be as severe as it is in Europe, however.
We assess that other, non-Muslim terrorist groups—often referred to as “single-issue” groups by the FBI—probably will conduct attacks over the next three years given their violent histories, but we assess this violence is likely to be on a small scale. We assess that globalization trends and recent technological advances will continue to enable even small numbers of alienated people to find and connect with one another, justify and intensify their anger, and mobilize resources to attack—all without requiring a centralized terrorist organization, training camp, or leader.
• The ability to detect broader and more diverse terrorist plotting in this environment will challenge current US defensive efforts and the tools we use to detect and disrupt plots. It will also require greater understanding of how suspect activities at the local level relate to strategic threat information and how best to identify indicators of terrorist activity in the midst of legitimate interactions.
** SICKO‘S BOX OFFICE IMPACT: MODERATE. Michael Moore’s film on the problems of the US health care system broadened its run into nearly 800 theaters around the country this past weekend, but its take was down. Sicko grossed $2.6 million over the weekend, after doing $3.6 million the previous weekend. Its total domestic box office coming out of the weekend was $15.8 million. It’s a very good number for a documentary, and it looks like the film will best his Oscar-winning Bowling for Columbine, which grossed $21.6 million, at the box office. But, despite heavy publicity and promotion, and a lot of work by activist groups, it’s clearly not breaking out the way Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11 did in grossing nearly $120 million.
** NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE DAY. The National Intelligence Estimate on Terrorism comes out later this morning. It should be viewable here. It’s been much leaked in dribs and drabs, but not in its entirety, and should be quite interesting, especially given the U.S. Senate’s extended session today and tonight on Iraq.
Has Al Qaeda experienced a resurgence, as the Bush administration is saying? And wouldn’t that be an implicit acknowledgement of failure? How do you define Al Qaeda these days? Osama bin Laden, seen above, hasn’t been seen in new video footage for a long time.
** NEW GALLUP POLL. There’s a new national Gallup Poll on the presidential races, conducted July 12-15. On the Republican side, it’s Rudy Giuliani 30%, Fred Thompson 20%, John McCain 16%, and Mitt Romney 8%. McCain’s numbers have stabilized in the wake of his campaign implosion.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton 34%, Barack Obama 25%, Al Gore 16%, John Edwards 9%. Clinton had a 16-point lead over Obama in the last Gallup Poll, now it’s down to nine points.
** SCHWARZENEGGER DELTA WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, continuing to push for a new water policy, tours the Sacramento River Delta at the top of San Francisco Bay this morning and has a live webcast at 10:15 AM.
** THE REPUBLICAN PARTY SPLIT OVER INDEPENDENTS. At the end of last week, the California Republican Party’s executive board narrowly voted to exclude independent voters from the crucial February 5th California Republican presidential primary. The motion, by two hyperpartisan bloggers now playing high elected roles in the state party, Jon Fleischman and Tom Del Beccaro, carried narrowly on an 11-9 vote. Among those in favor were the Republican leaders of the state Senate and Assembly, Dick Ackerman and Mike Villines. Among those opposed were Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, represented by a proxy, and former state Republican chairman Duf Sundheim.
Democrats, of course, allow independents, by far the fastest growing voter group in the state, to participate in their primary. Below, courtesy of the Flash Report, is the narrowly adopted measure and the record of the vote.
The resolution: The Board of Directors of the California Republican Party supports our current rules that require that you must be a registered Republican to cast a ballot in the Republican Presidential primary in February, 2008.
Senate Leader Dick Ackerman - YES
National Committeewoman Barbara Alby - YES
Pres, County Chairs Assoc. Keen Butcher - NO
Regional Vice Chairman Doug Boyd - YES
Regional Vice Chairman Paul Bruno - YES
Regional Vice Chairman Luis Buhler - NO
Treasurer Keith Carlson - YES
Vice Chairman Tom Del Beccaro - YES
Regional Vice Chairman Jon Fleischman - YES
Secretary Jalene Forbis - YES
Finance Chairman Steve Francis - NO
Regional Vice Chairman Laura Gadke - YES
Budget Chairman Tony Krvaric - YES
Regional Vice Chairman Jerry Maltby - NO
National Committeeman Tim Morgan - NO
Chairman Ron Nehring - NO VOTE CAST
Regional Vice Chairman Mark Pruner - NO
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (via rep) - NO
Immed. Past Chairman Duf Sundheim - NO
Assembly Leader Mike Villines (via rep) - YES
Regional Vice Chairman Aquinetta Warren - NO
** AL QAEDA’S AMERICAN PRISONERS STILL NOT LOCATED. American troops are now in the midst of a 66th day of searching for the remaining two US soldiers captured by Al Qaeda in an ambush south of Baghdad. They have had no luck so far. A video put out by Al Qaeda forces in Iraq claims that all three men were executed after being captured. But, with the exception of the Californian found floating in the Euphrates River, that claim can’t be confirmed. The US high command in Baghdad has revealed that ID cards for the other two American prisoners were found in an Al Qaeda safehouse on June 9th.
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Most crude oil prices are up to $75 per barrel, another new high for the year.
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102 Comments
1. Kurt:Are the REPS trying to control who will be their losing candidate in November?
Jul 17, 2007 - 8:07 am 2. Ann:So these two fanatics succeeded in closing the Republican Presidential primary. I thought the Flush Report was only a laughingstock. I see it’s dangerous.
Jul 17, 2007 - 8:08 am 3. Jonas Blane:Clinton’s lead is down. That’s not surprising.
I don’t think Al Qaeda is for real any more. All we have left are copy cats.
Jul 17, 2007 - 8:17 am 4. Jonas Blane:Why do Republicans there go against Schwarzenegger on the vote? He’s 10 times better at elections than they are.
Jul 17, 2007 - 8:20 am 5. Sacramento Solon:Jonas,
The answer to your question is easy…many within his party don’t see him as being of their party. He is what they would call a RINO..republican in name only.
Jul 17, 2007 - 8:37 am 6. Capitol Boy:That is quite a roster of stupidity there.
Jul 17, 2007 - 8:48 am 7. Bill Bradley:As has been reported here, oh, once or twice, Schwarzenegger is actually much closer to Republican voters on key issues than are party leaders.
>Sacramento Solon :
Jul 17, 2007 - 8:58 am 8. Len:Jonas,
The answer to your question is easy…many within his party don’t see him as being of their party. He is what they would call a RINO..republican in name only.
Jul 17, 2007 08:37 AM
I’m tired of all the polls. Will they ever knock it off?
Jul 17, 2007 - 9:13 am 9. Barbara:A bomb went off at the District Bar Association in Islamabad, Pakistan earlier some 6 dead per the account I saw …it went off at a rally near a stage where former Pakistani Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry was to make a speech …luckily Chaudhry was not there ….
yesterday, Pres. Bush said “serious negotiations” focusing on the borders of a future Palestinian state can begin soon HOWEVER today, Olmert’s spokesperson said there will be no discussions on “the three core issues of borders, refugees and Jerusalem.” …”at this stage”
This administration is all theatre…this report is a prop
Jul 17, 2007 - 9:16 am 10. Hap Hazard:Jonas I think that Al Qaeda is very alive and well. Iran comes to mind as a significant AW area of operations, among other places.
Jul 17, 2007 - 9:19 am 11. Hap Hazard:Barbara, I am not so sure that this Bush move is automatically knee-jerk bad. I think the prospects for a middle east solution only improve when the (1) the UN is kept out of the discussion and (2) only countries and factions that recognize Israel are invited.
Jul 17, 2007 - 9:25 am 12. Sacramento Solon:Bill,
Once again, thanks for the correction. Should have said those voting on this issue and perhaps you might have agreed with me. Doubt it, but perhaps.
Jul 17, 2007 - 9:25 am 13. Bill Bradley:You never know …
Jul 17, 2007 - 9:27 am 14. Bill Bradley:The Quartet meet with Tony Blair Thursday in Lisbon.
>Hap Hazard :
Jul 17, 2007 - 9:28 am 15. Bill Bradley:Barbara, I am not so sure that this Bush move is automatically knee-jerk bad. I think the prospects for a middle east solution only improve when the (1) the UN is kept out of the discussion and (2) only countries and factions that recognize Israel are invited.
Jul 17, 2007 09:25 AM
Oh, I think Al Qaeda very much exists. But the question is, what is Al Qaeda now?
Jul 17, 2007 - 9:30 am 16. Wilbur:In other incessant premature polling news, the AP-Ipsos poll released today has “none of the above” at the top of the Reep pack, beating Giuliani 23-21.
Jul 17, 2007 - 10:06 am 17. Barbara:http://tinyurl.com/2xe28w
Al Qaeda is a franchise …it is good for the “old” al Qaeda as it keeps it upfront and center in the Muslim world and it also works politically for this Admin to “brand” the name…as every military act can be a fight against terroism…and who are the terrorists? …oh yes.. al Qaeda…or now “al Qaeda linked” …reporters and terrorist experts that they trot out say it so fast it sounds like one word ..alQaedalinked…it is doubtful that any of these groups have access to the core leaders …stories of Egyptian prisons Afganistan inspired and trained 9/11 terrorists and the Iraq War has and will inspire/train the next group…
I was very sorry to see the Bush presscon yesterday…the Quartet approach needs to establish some credibility and independence from Bush Admin and it is vital that Blair does…
Jul 17, 2007 - 10:17 am 18. Ann:Where is Schwarzeneger? He’s late again!
Jul 17, 2007 - 10:28 am 19. Brasky:Wilbur: Is “None of the Above” eligible for federal matching funds? Does he need a campaign manager?
Jul 17, 2007 - 10:32 am 20. Ann:There he is.
Jul 17, 2007 - 10:39 am 21. Barbara:“We assess Lebanese Hizballah, which has conducted anti-US attacks outside the United
States in the past, may be more likely to consider attacking the Homeland over the next three
years if it perceives the United States as posing a direct threat to the group or Iran.”
I stopped reading when I got to this …they can’t be more obvious about what this report is designed to do…
Jul 17, 2007 - 10:39 am 22. Hap Hazard:Barbara, surely you don’t think the report should have been designed to voice support for Hizballah, or ignore its obvious connection to the Iranian leadership?
Jul 17, 2007 - 10:50 am 23. Barbara:Hizbollah leaders were in France this weekend meeting with other Lebanese government official and the French Foreign Minister “breaking the ice” and attempting to ease the conflict in Lebanon…This move by the Sarkozy GOV was the first and only correct move made in the ME easily in almost a decade…Sarkozy was also correct to calculate his remarks and refuse to label Hizbollah as terrorists…
We are heading for a fall with the current US-Israeli Abbas/PNA strategy…I am just waiting for the end of the week to see if the Quartet and Blair assert themselves …
Jul 17, 2007 - 10:58 am 24. Barbara:“This move by the Sarkozy GOV was the first and only correct move made in the ME easily in almost a decade”
I meant by a western power…the Saudis and other Persian Gulf monarchs, particularly the Emir of Qatar, are doing some positive things also
Jul 17, 2007 - 11:02 am 25. Wilbur:As I understand it, “None of the above” is still proceeding under the exploratory committee exemption, but upon declaring becomes eligible for federal funds. ;-}
Jul 17, 2007 - 11:06 am 26. Bill Bradley:Still testing the waters, as it were.
Jul 17, 2007 - 11:16 am 27. Bill Bradley:One of the tricky aspects of this is that Hezbollah is clearly backed heavily by Iran, as we saw less than a year ago in their war with Israel.
But does that mean that Hezbollah is going to mount operations in America?
They never have, to my knowledge, and it would seem idiotic.
Jul 17, 2007 - 11:19 am 28. Bill Bradley:Schwarzenegger wasn’t that late, but I did have to keep restarting the webcast feed.
Jul 17, 2007 - 11:21 am 29. Barbara:Reuters is reporting on Blair…
“BRUSSELS, July 17 (Reuters) - Tony Blair is satisfied with the mandate he has been given as Middle East envoy, his spokesman said on Tuesday, seeking to put to rest debate over whether he should take on a more direct peacemaking role.
“Blair plans to make his first visit to Israel and the occupied West Bank next Monday in his new role, diplomatic sources said. His spokesman declined to comment. he former British prime minister is representing the Quartet of Middle East mediators, which comprises the United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations…..
“Blair was asked by the Quartet to raise funds for the Palestinians and help to build their ruling institutions and promote economic development.
Senior diplomatic sources in Jerusalem said Blair would then travel to Israel on Monday for talks with leaders in Jerusalem and the West Bank city of Ramallah. The trip will last less than 48 hours.”
Soooooo Lisbon on Thurs and Jerusalem-Ramallah Mon-Tues…
Jul 17, 2007 - 11:22 am 30. Barbara:Mr. Bradley:But does that mean that Hezbollah is going to mount operations in America?
They never have, to my knowledge, and it would seem idiotic.”
Correct… and btw Nazrallah condemmed the 9/11 world trade attack…he has proven very smart, very politically astute…and he more than anyone has the potential to be the “new Nasser” of the Arab world only as fits the times …a religious Nasser…which should be a concern and why I am happy that at least France made this outreach attempt..
Jul 17, 2007 - 11:32 am 31. Wilbur:Has any wag ever changed his/her name to “None of the above” just to be able to get on the ballot that way?
there’s a script treatment in that idea, I suspect….
Jul 17, 2007 - 11:43 am 32. Juan Cortina:Wilbur - Think Richard Pryor in Brewter’s Millions.
Jul 17, 2007 - 11:51 am 33. CADTS:Some brief thoughts…
1.) I am sooooooooooo tired of these polls that have all the sound and fury — without signifying a damn thing. I will have every one note that Bill Richardson has started gaining momentum — better than expected fundraising is a pretty good indicator. And yet, a poll has him in single digits…I am stunned. You could say the same for Edwards.
2.)You know what the problem with these NIE’s being issued by this joke of an Administration — by and large, the release of these things always appears as a “cry wolf” scenario to the public. Why, because the Administration has led such a clusterf–k effort on intelligence. So, the cynical public, already down on the Administration, thinks “whatever, you told us that before — and you lied to us — so why should we believe you now.” So, if an attack does comes, this Administration is going to look like absolute fools — and the public will call for someone’s head.
3.) What are the odds Schwarzenegger runs for Mayor of LA?
4.)It concerns me deeply tat the Yankees spent almost $16M on Roger Clemens for a half of a year and are getting AMAZING production while the Giants spent $16.8M on Barry Bonds and aren’t getting jack squat.
5.)Ya know,I always was concerned Arnold would go back to the right if he ever got elected under a virtual mandate. That idea was completely wrong — I think this guy is where he has always wanted to be…square in the middle and governing pragmatically for the most part.
6.)BTW, I just watched “Keeping Up With the Steins” on DVD…holy crap, that movie was awesome!! I was absolutely CRYING laughing half of it — Garry Marshall is both a great actor and director (clearly his son, Scott, who actually directed the movie takes after him.)and I could watch him in anything. And Jamie Kurtz/Jeremy Pivin mixing was kind of perfect — although I can see confusion between Pivin’s character in “Entourage” versus the “Keeping Up With The Steins.”
Jul 17, 2007 - 12:05 pm 34. Barbara:Pakistan is TOTALLY unraveling …now Punjab province …Islamabad is being locked down…
here we go….
Jul 17, 2007 - 12:07 pm 35. CADTS:Barbara…any chance there will be a coup in Pakistan against Musharaf?
Jul 17, 2007 - 12:09 pm 36. Barbara:CADTS, a coup is the least of his worries at the moment
Jul 17, 2007 - 12:15 pm 37. Sacramento Solon:CADATS informed us that, :4.)It concerns me deeply tat the Yankees spent almost $16M on Roger Clemens for a half of a year and are getting AMAZING production while the Giants spent $16.8M on Barry Bonds and aren’t getting jack squat.
—-
Jul 17, 2007 - 12:32 pm 38. Barbara:Ever fearful I might be once agagain attacked by Mr. Bradley, I must said… 2-4 4.20 ERA is only AMAZING if you are a Boston Red Sox ffan. Are you?
Intersting, by standers are reporting that the suicide bombing at today’s rally in Islamabad aimed himself at the Pakistani People’s Party (PPP…founded by Zulfkar Ali Bhutto)welcoming stand…Bush admin will of course blame al Qaeda and many Pakistanis will be just as adamnat that it was the government…I don’t see how Musharraf survives the swift growing and very violent unrest…it is difficult to see how he can appease his people… or please the Bush admin (on taking on militants) …so now it is a question of what the US will do…a chaotic Pakistan does not just make the Afghanistan Nato led conflict more difficult …it opens up a whole new can of worms…
Jul 17, 2007 - 1:18 pm 39. Bill Bradley:It’s been tried.
>Wilbur :
Jul 17, 2007 - 1:21 pm 40. Bill Bradley:Has any wag ever changed his/her name to “None of the above” just to be able to get on the ballot that way?
there’s a script treatment in that idea, I suspect….
Jul 17, 2007 11:43 AM
Pakistan hasn’t come unraveled yet.
Jul 17, 2007 - 1:22 pm 41. Barbara:It does not matter who is behind the bombs…enough people will blame the government …militancy is growing in ALL sectors…that is called unraveling …legal community now for months…M’s political opponents…add al qaeda and taliban to the mix and it is toxic …the only way it does not totally unravel is Musharraf steps down …but instead he will try to quash everyone with emergency rule etc…the question is what are we going to do …prop him up for bit longer or ….
Jul 17, 2007 - 1:36 pm 42. Sullihan:Re: Name changes: Wasn’t it in 1983 that a former Venutra legislator sought to change his name from “Omer Rains” to “Senator Omer Rains”? After the Pro Tem wrote to the Judge, the change was denied.
Jul 17, 2007 - 1:43 pm 43. Brasky:Now that the Right Wing is all gaga for Fred Thompson, it seems every time I turn on the TV, there’s Fred in some movie.
A typical Fred Thompson scene begins with him hanging-up the phone and telling a room of military officers, “That was the President…”
I think he’s typecast as someone who never plays someone above a cabinet level position.
Jul 17, 2007 - 1:51 pm 44. Sacramento Solon:Sullihan,
Good recall! I do remember him trying to have his name changed and that it was turned down by the courts. However, can’t recall the courts reasoning for denying such a legitimate request!
Jul 17, 2007 - 2:19 pm 45. Auros:Hap, al-Qaeda is a Sunni organization and regards the theocracy of Iran as heretical. I imagine they might cooperate temporarily in Iraq, but the idea of Iran as a locus of major al-Qaeda training and operations is silly. They have their own, separate factions of murderous zealots.
Jul 17, 2007 - 2:20 pm 46. Ann:No more anti-Arnold witch hunting, it looks like.
Jul 17, 2007 - 2:49 pm 47. NickM:It just dawned on me that I had a brain freeze. I was acting as if this were 2004, where the Presidential primary and all other primaries were at the same election. As a technical matter, there was a beauty contest election for President from among DTS voters who requested GOP ballots that year. As a practical matter, it was an uncontested race, so there was no need to separate DTS ballots from GOP ballots.
Since we now have a split primary and the Presidential race is the only one on the ballot, there is nothing else to vote on that the Party Bylaws as currently enacted entitle DTS voters to vote on.
DTS voters will not be allowed to get a GOP Presidential primary ballot for 2008 - beauty contest or meaningful - unless the CA GOP rules are changed. They will still be allowed to vote in the June 2008 GOP primary.
My apologies for the mixup.
Jul 17, 2007 - 3:02 pm 48. Bill Bradley:These things happen.
Jul 17, 2007 - 3:34 pm 49. Bill Bradley:Never say never.
>Ann :
Jul 17, 2007 - 3:35 pm 50. Bill Bradley:No more anti-Arnold witch hunting, it looks like.
Jul 17, 2007 02:49 PM
According to the NIE, that would be Pakistan. We’ve succeeded in moving them from Afghanistan next door.
>Auros :
Jul 17, 2007 - 3:37 pm 51. Bill Bradley:Hap, al-Qaeda is a Sunni organization and regards the theocracy of Iran as heretical. I imagine they might cooperate temporarily in Iraq, but the idea of Iran as a locus of major al-Qaeda training and operations is silly. They have their own, separate factions of murderous zealots.
Jul 17, 2007 02:20 PM
He was White House chief of staff in Clint Eastwood’s Secret Service movie.
>Brasky :
Jul 17, 2007 - 3:38 pm 52. Bill Bradley:Now that the Right Wing is all gaga for Fred Thompson, it seems every time I turn on the TV, there’s Fred in some movie.
A typical Fred Thompson scene begins with him hanging-up the phone and telling a room of military officers, “That was the President…”
I think he’s typecast as someone who never plays someone above a cabinet level position.
Jul 17, 2007 01:51 PM
I think he did that when he failed to get “Retired Senator” as a ballot designation.
>Sullihan :
Jul 17, 2007 - 3:40 pm 53. Bill Bradley:Re: Name changes: Wasn’t it in 1983 that a former Venutra legislator sought to change his name from “Omer Rains” to “Senator Omer Rains”? After the Pro Tem wrote to the Judge, the change was denied.
Jul 17, 2007 01:43 PM
What’s the alternative?
>Barbara :
Jul 17, 2007 - 3:41 pm 54. Bill Bradley:It does not matter who is behind the bombs…enough people will blame the government …militancy is growing in ALL sectors…that is called unraveling …legal community now for months…M’s political opponents…add al qaeda and taliban to the mix and it is toxic …the only way it does not totally unravel is Musharraf steps down …but instead he will try to quash everyone with emergency rule etc…the question is what are we going to do …prop him up for bit longer or ….
Jul 17, 2007 01:36 PM
The office may not be available.
>3.) What are the odds Schwarzenegger runs for Mayor of LA?
Jul 17, 2007 - 3:43 pm 55. Barbara:I dont know …he waited too long to move on militants/extremists…and on democratic reforms …the Red Mosque incident points to cooperation and perhaps even alliance between many of the mullahs and the military …very troubling
this is potentially a much more dangerous situation than Iran…
and could have spillover to surrounding countries…we are talking about a huge Muslim population getting more and more radicalized and anti US every day
another big screw up…which we are totally capable of screwing up even more
Jul 17, 2007 - 3:52 pm 56. Bill Bradley:Yes, Pakistan actually has the Bomb.
Jul 17, 2007 - 3:57 pm 57. Ann:Never Say Never…another movie reference. lol
Jul 17, 2007 - 4:02 pm 58. Bill Bradley:Naturally.
Jul 17, 2007 - 4:05 pm 59. Capitol Boy:Mary Nichols is a better pick for the Air Resources board than a retired professor. I bet Schwarzenegger had no idea the board would be so important when he appointed him.
Jul 17, 2007 - 4:22 pm 60. Wilbur:Bill Bradley :
I think he did that when he failed to get “Retired Senator” as a ballot designation.
>Sullihan :
Re: Name changes: Wasn’t it in 1983 that a former Venutra legislator sought to change his name from “Omer Rains” to “Senator Omer Rains”? After the Pro Tem wrote to the Judge, the change was denied.
Yup. I represented a few statewide Reeps on ballot designation challenges in the 80s, with some success. The stupid statute allowed incumbent officeholders several more words than non-officeholders. We prevailed in winning equal space for truthful descriptions of current occupations. Had a great laugh over Omer’s attempt to take it one further. I **think** perhaps he did succeed in changing his name after failing to change his ballot designation. It’s been a LONG time. Betcha Solon remembers…
Jul 17, 2007 - 4:25 pm 61. Bill Bradley:I don’t know what he was running for, maybe he ended up not running, and lost track in general.
Jul 17, 2007 - 4:30 pm 62. Brasky:“He was White House chief of staff in Clint Eastwood’s Secret Service movie.”
Holy crap you know a lot of movie stuff.
I just saw him in Die Hard II as the head flight controller.
Jul 17, 2007 - 4:30 pm 63. Bill Bradley:Well, I’m a ringer in a couple of ways, having moonlighted in Hollywood.
I’m trying to remember if Eastwood punches him out in that movie, which is called In the Line of Fire.
Jul 17, 2007 - 4:41 pm 64. Sacramento Solon:Wilbur,
As I recall he had become so use to everyone calling him Senator he just wanted it changed. Think he might have been a lobbyist at the time. I truly don’t recall if it was every connected with him running for office and can’t find reference to it on the ‘net.
Jul 17, 2007 - 4:44 pm 65. Brasky:“I’m trying to remember if Eastwood punches him out in that movie”
Reep-on-reep violence! Maybe I’ll rent it — haven’t seen it since it was in the theater.
Speaking of violence, the Senate war debate is on C-Span…
Jul 17, 2007 - 4:45 pm 66. Bill Bradley:It’s a terrific thriller.
I just double-checked to see if Clint punches out Fred. But I won’t spoil the surprise …
Jul 17, 2007 - 4:55 pm 67. Barbara:“One thing in particular is of interest, and that’s the notion of the huge resurgence of Al Qaeda itself.”
That is what it is a notion …here is a fact: the the Taliban are back full force….
This report is a prop for some neo-con move in the making…it’s a joke…Afghanistan and Pakistan could potentially be 2 different countries at the moment if we have completed the mission in Afghanistan…
there are some 2.4 million Iraqi refuggees sitting in Syria and Jordan …the largest displaced persons after Palestinians and Sudanese …the kids are not in school because there is not the money or room for them…there is talk of bi-lateral agreements between US and Jordan to fund at least schools but its not enough money or moving fast enough…the RED Cross reports show not even basic needs of clean water and food are being met…correct…alQaeda did not exist before US invaded …but it has taken hold now and that is just what the founding core wanted…
I almost gagged yesterday listening to Bush speak about his fall ME conf….I just wish they would just stop …everything …go build homes in New Orleans…everything they touch they destroy in the ME …
Jul 17, 2007 - 5:01 pm 68. Hap Hazard:Certainly AQ headquarters is now in Pakistan, but the new NIE and other sources indicate a definite presence in Iran as well. . . The Saudis have their ways it seems.
Jul 17, 2007 - 5:03 pm 69. Bill Bradley:Actually, I published the NIE above and it says Al Qaeda is headquartered in Pakistan. The only reference to Iran concerns Hezbollah.
Jul 17, 2007 - 5:06 pm 70. Bill Bradley:Barbara, I believe there are also 2 million people displaced from their homes inside Iraq.
>there are some 2.4 million Iraqi refuggees sitting in Syria and Jordan …the largest displaced persons after Palestinians and Sudanese …the kids are not in school because there is not the money or room for them…
Jul 17, 2007 - 5:07 pm 71. Capitol Boy:Zach Womp sounds like a fake name. Guess we have a lot of fun to look forward to with the Fred Thompson Presidency!
Jul 17, 2007 - 5:10 pm 72. Barbara:Exactly …TRUE… but on refugee watch groups and UN … they are counted differently …we are taking no responsibility.. not even in funding for this situation…the whole situation is untenable
Jul 17, 2007 - 5:18 pm 73. Barbara:Hap… the only common ground right now between Iran, Saudi Arabia and U.S. is all agree that the alQaeda franchise needs to be destroyed…the U.S. is providing weapons to Sunni Baathists to fight Sunni Jihadists …this is probably why Iran is agreebale to more talks with US and via back channels with Saudis on Iraq in the near future…as they know that the Sunni Baathists could be back with a great deal of power ….we need to settle Iraq …and get back to Afghanistan and Pakistan …Pakistan is going to be a big problem…
Jul 17, 2007 - 5:26 pm 74. Bill Bradley:It’s amazing they’re able to keep track of much of anything in Iraq. It’s about time for the parliament to go on vacation for a month.
Jul 17, 2007 - 5:28 pm 75. Wilbur:Hap, the confusion is understandable. There seems to be a persistent administration and proxies effort to plant the idea, yet not quite say, that AQ is operating out of Iran. Undeterred, the neocons would still really like us to think that the bad guys are in Iran, so we need to go kick some Iranian butt. Nevermind the Sunni/Shia distinction, it’s inconvenient to the message. Just as they tend blur all the various insurgent factions in Iraq together, to facilitate the perception that “they” are the bad guys who attacked us on 9/11. I can believe the Revolutionary Guard are arming and training Iraqi insurgents (and probably tippy-toeing over the border themselves frequently), but I have yet to be convinced they’re aiding AQ in Iraq, as distinguished from loyal Shia factions of the insurgency.
Babs?
Jul 17, 2007 - 5:29 pm 76. Bill Bradley:Incidentally, I can assure everyone that “Zach Womp” is not a fake name.
Jul 17, 2007 - 5:30 pm 77. Ann:How long with the looney tunes right play I’ve got a secret with the budget?
Jul 17, 2007 - 5:43 pm 78. Brasky:Fred Thompson on IMDB: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000669/
He was on a Sex in the City episode?
Jul 17, 2007 - 5:49 pm 79. Bill Bradley:Following instructions, I thought I’d seen every episode of that show. I don’t remember Fred Thompson. Maybe he was opposing counsel to the redhead with the wicked tongue.
Jul 17, 2007 - 5:52 pm 80. Bill Bradley:OK, that’s the one where Carrie is seeing a guy running for New York city treasurer and … hey, she was a columnist, was that a conflict of interest like Antonio Villaraigosa and Mirthala Salinas?
Anyway, I see Fred played the role of “Politician On TV.” That’s a stretch.
Jul 17, 2007 - 5:56 pm 81. Brasky:DiFi’s up on C-Span
Jul 17, 2007 - 6:13 pm 82. Hap Hazard:This is a news report that seems to support the proposition that AQ can at least be mentioned in connection with Iran, although it is obvious that AQ has been operating mostly, and has its HQ in Pakistan, whatever that may now be. I believe that the movement is financed by Saudi folk, some of whom are associated with the ruling families there.
Jul 17, 2007 - 6:17 pm 83. Hap Hazard:Maybe Fred Thompson just wants to be Guliani’s Veep.
Jul 17, 2007 - 6:19 pm 84. larry:Zach Wamp is a 7 term Republican representative from the 3rd District of Tennessee. That is a creatively gerrymandered dumbbell-shaped district running from the northern to the southern border of Tennessee. The narrow connector for the two parts contains Oak Ridge.
Jul 17, 2007 - 6:37 pm 85. Bill Bradley:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zach_Wamp
One of the early scenarios is he would hurt Giuliani. That’s when McCain was strong. Who knows what these guys are doing?
Jul 17, 2007 - 6:37 pm 86. Barbara:Di Fi was very good…I just heard they are hanging in to debate the war all night …
It’s unnerving to think Bush Admin is in power another year and some…
Jul 17, 2007 - 6:45 pm 87. Johnnie Rico:but it’s a nightmare to think about electing Rudy who could extend all this chaos and stupidity with another neo-con admin…
What’s wrong with y’all? You want to live forever?
Jul 17, 2007 - 8:17 pm 88. Paul Burton:BB: “..the administration is saying America is more vulnerable today to attack than at any time since the 9/11 period. Which is not exactly an implicit endorsement of the course the country’s been on. One could just as easily accept everything in that document at face value and use it to indict the Bush administration and its political allies.”
I couldn’t agree more and do hope Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld-Rice are indicted.
Congress is responsible for a surge in American troop deaths by not impeaching the Bush cabal.
But al-Queada’s resurgence is good news for Bush and his Terror Warriors, allowing them to claim the need for more fear mongering, shredding of constitutional rights, and enriching their military industrial complex cronies and private contractor war profiteers. One could make the case that they have a vested interest in destabilizing the region.
Jul 17, 2007 - 9:25 pm 89. Ann:It’s another kind of indictment, Paul. You’re not interested in elections, are you?
Jul 17, 2007 - 10:03 pm 90. Jack Aubrey:No around the clock coverage of the Senate debate. I was looking for something to put me to sleep.
Jul 18, 2007 - 4:42 am 91. Jonas Blane:I couldn’t watch, thinking about Iraq would have kept me awake.
Jul 18, 2007 - 6:05 am 92. Bill Bradley:Yes, I had another sort of indictment in mind.
Jul 18, 2007 - 1:04 pm 93. Auros:While it’ll never happen, it really does seem like Paul’s kind of indictment is well merited. It’s blatantly clear, at this point, that White House officials directed the use of civil servants as campaign props, got the GSA to upgrade services in GOP districts and downgrade them in Dem districts, pressured prosecutors like David Iglesias to drum up fraudulent indictments to embarrass Dems, interfered with Carol Lam’s pursuit of corruption cases against SoCal Republicans, etc… These are all federal crimes.
I don’t think impeachment is practical, because I think the GOP is far too gutless to do the right thing, like they did with Nixon. But call a spade a spade: a lot of top administration are criminals, whether or not they ever get indicted.
Jul 18, 2007 - 2:45 pm 94. Bill Bradley:Well, considering that there aren’t enough Republican votes to end the Iraq War, impeachment is hardly a serious proposition.
Jul 18, 2007 - 3:05 pm 95. Ann:We don’t expect serious politics from Paul. He wants to have opponents shot and imprisoned. lol
Jul 18, 2007 - 4:20 pm 96. Brasky:If you crazy kids want to live-out your delusion of impeaching Bush, you better lump Cheney in there too.
If you wackos make Cheney president, I’ll personally track you down and put a Brasky-style beatin’ on ya’ll.
Jul 18, 2007 - 6:19 pm 97. Bill Bradley:It’s more likely that the guy who plays the president on “24″ will become president than that any of that happens.
Jul 18, 2007 - 6:54 pm 98. Capitol Boy:David Palmer, yes. Wayne Palmer, I’m not so sure.
Jul 18, 2007 - 11:40 pm 99. Bill Bradley:David Palmer always had my vote. They haven’t given Wayne a chance.
Jul 19, 2007 - 8:46 am 100. Paul Burton:The continuous slanderous comments against me posted by “Ann” need to be stopped by Mr. Bradley. Accusing me of wanting opponents “shot and imprisoned” is libel. Bradley is aiding and abetting this slander. I am for non-violent change and upholding our laws and constitutional rights. “Ann’s” comments are based on a misreading of my earlier comments re: Fidel Castro being a better politician than Bill Clinton and Tony Blair and Cuba being an exporter of healthcare while Bush, Blair, and Clinton are warmongers. That doesn’t mean that I support Castro’s criminal justice system, any more than I support the barbaric death penalty in the US.
“Ann” - please tell us your real name and how you are in any way qualified to write about subjects you are ignorant of.
Of course I knew Bradley “had another sort of indictment in mind,” re: Bush. You know sometimes words have two meanings; I thought it was a good opportunity to point out that by not indicting Bush for War Crimes or impeaching his ass, many more of the troops he says he supports have been killed. People like “Ann” who support and defend Bush and deny that he needs to be held accountable have no credibility.
I don’t care if people want to marginalize me as a leftist, but as more reasonable posters have noted, a case for indicting Bush can be made on several fronts.
Question Authority: I’m sure you all noticed that the Japanese nuclear power plant operator admitted two days after the plant was damaged by an earthquake that the damage was far greater than they first announced.
Jul 19, 2007 - 10:18 am 101. Auros:To be fair to Ann, I wouldn’t necessarily say she supports/defends Bush; she’s an equal-opportunity snarkmonger.
In any case, again, I think it is worthwhile to call a spade a spade: Bush and Cheney will not be impeached, but they are nonetheless guilty of “high crimes and misdemeanors”.
Still, Paul, I think you’re impractical sometimes — I still am pissed at the Greens for not recognizing that they were risking throwing the election to Bush in ‘00, and making a last minute concession/endorsement in a couple key states (like, say, FL, where the number of Green votes was on the order of twenty times what would’ve been needed to flip the election the right way)… You guys bring important ideas to the table, but I wish you’d look at the landscape we’re living in and think more about how to actually have an impact. I don’t want you guys marginalized, I want you working effectively! That would move the center of conversation back the way I want it!
Jul 19, 2007 - 11:57 am 102. Bill Bradley:Attention, Ann, and everyone. No saying that someone wants to shoot their opponents, unless they really do. And which Paul Burton certainly does not.
This is not a hyperpartisan blog.
Jul 19, 2007 - 5:49 pm