Last night’s CNN YouTube Democratic presidential “debate” was pleasant and sometimes amusing, but little more than that. The video questions were more on point than this famed skateboarding dog, but everything skimmed on the surface as usual in what are really only forums.
This would not be a small unit raid, it would be an operation of at least brigade-level strength. The Pakistani media has focused on little else this week, other than the country’s ongoing crisis of governance in the midst of a clash between beleaguered President Pervez Musharaff and Islamic jihadist forces throughout the nuclear-armed nation.
** CALIFORNIA BUDGET UPDATE: A NOTABLE ODDITY. 2006 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides today sent a mass e-mail to past supporters urging them to push Democratic legislators to scuttle the current budget agreement that lacks only two votes from stubborn state Senate Republicans to gain passage. Odd, considering that Democrats are fighting for the passage of that budget as the best they can get under the state’s two-thirds vote requirement, having put up unanimous votes in both the Assembly and the Senate for it. This earned him the marked disdain of his erstwhile backers at the California Majority Report, the state’s Democratic insider web site.
But it is perhaps unsurprising, since Schwarzenegger in fact — quite contrary to what Angelides claimed — was pushing, yes, that very issue. The governor has worked with Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez on runaway production legislation for a couple of years now.
It seems that anything Schwarzenegger is for, Angelides is against. Even when they agree. Angelides’ move doesn’t look like it will have any impact, other than to raise the sorts of questions that plagued his final campaign.
** CALIFORNIA BUDGET UPDATE: THE JERRY BROWN LAWSUIT. As you can see from the item below, state Senate Republicans even today have struggled to frame what more they want cut from the state budget, now some three weeks overdue. In addition to the ongoing confusion about their counter-proposal, a few other matters have been lately thrown into the mix. One is fiscal, a demand for more tax breaks, unspecified as best I can make out. The other has nothing to do with the budget, and that is an attempt, still rather unspecific to hinge passage of a budget on a move to block environmental lawsuits.
Such lawsuits, brought by environmental groups and Attorney General Jerry Brown, the former governor of California, would under the California Environmental Quality Act get counties to consider greenhouse gas emissions in their planning processes in furtherance of the state’s landmark climate change law. Although Brown has sent warning letters to several localities, he has filed only one such lawsuit, against San Bernardino County.
Led in part by termed-out state Senator Tom McClintock, the California right-wing’s hero who has nonetheless lost all four of his races for statewide office, some Republicans are saying that Brown wants to use the law to stop development in California. That he would block highway construction under last year’s big infrastructure bonds package. That he would stop dams from being built, because they require cement and the production of cement leads to the emission of greenhouse gases. That Brown is responsible for all the state’s woes for shutting down highway construction during his governorship.
Familiar arguments from the campaign last year. And rejected in that campaign, as Brown won the attorney generalship by the biggest landslide in any contested race, including Arnold Schwarzenegger’s devastation of the hapless Phil Angelides.
I spoke with the attorney general, and we’ll get into this more later. For now, sufffice to say that he is not against highway construction. Nor is Brown against building water storage facilities. Noting, like Schwarzenegger, that with global warming the state needs to capture early run-off, he points out that he was the governor who got a Peripheral Canal bill through the Legislature, and that more miles of higway were built during his governorship than during the combined years of his two Republican successors, George Deukmejian and Pete Wilson.
His goal, he notes, is to make sure that counties account for greenhouse gas emissions in their planning processes. Within reason, it’s up to them to come up with a plan to do so. In fact, he held a settlement meeting over the weekend with San Bernardino county supervisors.
** EX-SECRETARY OF STATE ALBRIGHT DOES POST-DEBATE SPIN. With a largely uneventful “debate,” one does what one must to draw distinctions. Former Secretary of State Madeline Albright, a veteran of Democratic campaign politics going back to the 1980s, did a conference call this morning for Hillary Clinton. Her mission? To try to push home the point that Clinton is best qualified to be president. And to try to make Barack Obama look like he doesn’t know what he’s talking about when he said, in answer to one of the folksy vid questions last night, that he would meet with leaders of rogue and/or enemy nations. Clinton, following Obama in the lineup, said she wasn’t so sure, and that diplomatic spadework would be needed. Since Clinton herself called for such meetings in April, Albright had some work to do.
At an Iowa appearance, Clinton said this: “I think it is a terrible mistake for our president to say he will not talk with bad people. You don’t make peace with your friends — you have to do the hard work of dealing with people you don’t agree with.”
The former secretary of state began by allowing as how she thought the debate was “very interesting.” Hillary, she said, knows that being president is about protecting the country and advancing its interests. Her answer on the foreign leaders question “showed a sophisticated understanding of the process. It’s necessary to have lower level people make contact first to clear the underbrush away.”
Asked if Clinton wasn’t now contradicting herself, Albright said, of course, that she is not. Her answer showed “a sophisticated and nuanced view. She hasn’t changed her position.” Yet she wouldn’t criticize Obama for his answer.
I asked Albright directly if Clinton would or would not meet with the leaders. “In my view,” she replied, “some of them.” After the preliminary work — which is customary before high-level summits — had been done. “I think first of all,” she said, warming to the subject, “we have no idea where things will be in 2009 with those countries, no idea about diplomatic discussions. She gave a really good answer. Without diplomatic spadework, it (presidential meeting) would not prove anything. She made that pretty clear.”
There you have it. Post-”debate” debate. Incidentally, host Anderson Cooper barely noticed the somewhat different answers to the question.
** CALIFORNIA BUDGET UPDATE: SENATE REPUBLICANS STILL HAVEN’T DECIDED ON CUTS.From the Associated Press: The cuts will come from “a couple dozen programs that are $20 million and less … where we’ve seen tremendous growth in the last few years,” said Sen. Dennis Hollingsworth, R-Temecula, vice chairman of the Senate budget committee. “Pretty soon they start adding up.”
Republicans said trimming those programs will not only balance this year’s budget but also help prevent a deficit projected to top $5 billion next year. Hollingsworth said he and other Republicans in the Senate are still trying to decide which specific cuts to endorse.
The show itself will become Hollywoo’d first carbon balanced TV production. The producers will use biodiesel fuel in generators and use all renewable power for their electricity through participating in the LA Department of Water & Power’s special green power program. Vehicles will be switched where possible to hybrids. Where there is not possible, and with regard to air travel, carbon offsets will be purchased.
There is already some rending of garments among some of the show’s fans on the far right, who think the show is merely trying to buy peace from lefty critics of its hard anti-terror line. But what they don’t get is that the big boss of Fox, Rupert Murdoch, no one’s idea of a commie symp crunchy granola kind of guy, is himself now on the anti-greenhouse gas bandwagon. And 24 is his flagship show.
** FEDERAL JUDGES MIGHT CAP PRISON POPULATION.Federal judges are creating a panel to explore capping California’s prison population. Judging that efforts to improve medical care and mental health treatment for prisoners is still short of their high standards, and that the state’s big new construction program might increase the problem by further increasing the population — it would also lessen the underlying problem by alleviating overcrowding, which of course leads to violence and transmission of illness — the jurists have taken the preliminary step that could lead to early release of prisoners.
Or not. All such moves will be fought in court and delayed for a long time. I think that the jurists aren’t quite grasping public attitudes here.
** AL QAEDA’S AMERICAN PRISONERS STILL NOT LOCATED. American troops are now in the midst of a 73rd day of searching for the remaining two US soldiers captured by Al Qaeda in an ambush south of Baghdad. They have had no luck so far. A video put out by Al Qaeda forces in Iraq claims that all three men were executed after being captured. But, with the exception of the Californian found floating in the Euphrates River, that claim can’t be confirmed. The US high command in Baghdad has revealed that ID cards for the other two American prisoners were found in an Al Qaeda safehouse on June 9th.
** THE DEMOCRATIC “DEBATE.” Well, that was pleasant enough. But not really a debate. It’s a forum. (I actually channel-flipped a few times.) The videos from the voters were mostly cute, and sometimes pointed. The candidates had their own “YouTube-style” videos, as host Anderson Cooper called them. I couldn’t read Hillary Clinton’s, which was a homemade series of largely illegible signs. Joe Biden’s was a standard TV commercial.
I thought Clinton was polished, as usual. Obama was equivalent, showing his increased ease with the events. Bill Richardson scored with humor and experience. Joe Biden was forceful and effective. John Edwards had good moments. Everyone did fairly well.
A CNN focus group in New Hampshire of undecided voters expected Hillary to dominate. But at the end, they felt that Obama had scored the best of the field. A CNN focus group in Nevada also expected Hillary to dominate. At the end, they rated her equal with Bill Richardson, with Obama placing third.
Incidentally, the CNN commentators are describing Hillary’s jacket — which Edwards called a coat — as pink. Actually, it’s coral. This is why NWN is the California leader in real-time political analysis …
** “YOUTUBE” DEBATE COMING UP. Democratic presidential candidates are going through final preparations for the CNN YouTube debate at 4 PM Pacific time in Charleston, South Carolina. CNN will select questions for the candidates from among many submissions in the form of YouTube videos. Anchor Anderson Cooper will moderate the debate, introducing the vids and handling follow-up.
The campaigns don’t seem worried in the least by this format. The candidates are used to doing town halls, and this format, since the questions are recorded, ensures that the questioner simply asks the question, with no chance for messy further interaction. I love YouTube, which is an absolutely essential partner for NWN, but this is really pretty much a gimmick.
** CALIFORNIA BUDGET UPDATE. Law enforcement groups are beginning to pressure state Senate Republicans to pass the budget. Education groups were already on the case.
** CALIFORNIA TERM LIMITS CAMPAIGN SUBMITS 1.1 MILLION SIGNATURES. The campaign to change California’s term limits law — which would reduce the total number of years allowed in the Legislature from 14 to 12, but increase the number of years to be served in one house (from six in the Assembly and eight in the Senate to 12) — today submitted 1.1 million signatures to qualify the effort for next February’s presidential primary election. About 700,000 valid signatures are needed.
** SCHWARZENEGGER PREDICTS BUDGET PASSAGE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger appeared late this morning in Long Beach, after touring the local aquifer, to push for his water program of storage, conveyance, and conservation. Asked about the current state budget impasse, the former action superstar praised the budget passed on a bipartisan vote by the state Assembly and predicted budget passage after the Senate comes back into session on Wednesday.
The Los Angeles Times identified the very conservative Republican Flash Report as a principal locus of opposition to the Assembly budget, noting that several legislators have posted columns there. This is the total number of comments at the Flash Report all morning today, as the battle rages: One.
** COLORADO MOVES UP. On Saturday, the Colorado Democratic Party state committee voted to move the state’s presidential caucus up a month, joining California and a host of others in the February 5th super-primary.
In the piece, while promoting her campaign challenge to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, she talks about Pelosi restoring “balance to the universe” by coming out for the impeachment of President Bush, and talks up her new group, People for Humanity.
** AL QAEDA’S AMERICAN PRISONERS STILL NOT LOCATED. American troops are now in the midst of a 72nd day of searching for the remaining two US soldiers captured by Al Qaeda in an ambush south of Baghdad. They have had no luck so far. A video put out by Al Qaeda forces in Iraq claims that all three men were executed after being captured. But, with the exception of the Californian found floating in the Euphrates River, that claim can’t be confirmed. The US high command in Baghdad has revealed that ID cards for the other two American prisoners were found in an Al Qaeda safehouse on June 9th.
Former Senator and Law & Order star Fred Thompson scored in May with this put-down of documentary filmmaker Michael Moore. But that was May, and the launch of his campaign has continued to be delayed.
Republican presidential frontrunner Rudy Giuliani demonstrates his different strategy for winning the nomination by campaigning in San Francisco today, generally terra incognita for his party. But California is key to his nomination hopes, and there are plenty of Bay Area delegates to be won.
Meanwhile, heading into the middle of summer, some of the dangers of an ultra-long campaign are coming more clearly into focus.
This week, the Democrats hold another debate on Monday night, on CNN, this time with the seemingly techno-savvy gimmick of sifting through citizen-generated video questions via YouTube.
On the Republican side, John McCain seeks to show proof of life after virtually everyone I know — or anyone else knows — has left his campaign. Rudy Giuliani seeks to remind that he leads in most polls, albeit by smaller margins. Mitt Romney counters by pointing out that he leads in Iowa and New Hampshire (after months of unanswered TV advertising, which kind of lessens the significance of those leads) as he tries to engage Hillary Clinton by labeling her Democratic Leadership Council program as “Marxist.”
And Fred Thompson, who burst onto the scene a few months ago as the great populist conservative hope, struggles with getting an actual campaign up and running.
First the Democrats. The good news for them is that Barack Obama is not the only Democrat doing very well against all Republican prospects. Hillary Clinton now tops them too, in some very recent polls, the most recent of which is a Fox News poll.
Since Hillary has the unique problem of being disliked by a majority of voters, something is counteracting her inherent lack of mass popularity. That seems, according to the Fox News poll, as well as others, to be the increasingly weighty albatross of Iraq around all major Republican necks. (Not you, Ron Paul.)
Meanwhile, the Democrats gather for another debate Monday night in South Carolina. Hillary has, by most assessments, prevailed in most of the forums and debates held thus far.
And there have been a lot, so many that boredom may set in. Especially since all the candidates — first through fourth tiers — are still on the stage. My assessment of the tiers? First tier: Clinton and Obama. Second tier: John Edwards and Bill Richardson. (Richardson has moved into third place in New Hampshire, and raised nearly as much money as Edwards in the second quarter.) Third tier: Joe Biden and Chris Dodd. Fourth tier: Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel.
There is, frankly, no chance that Kucinich or Gravel can be nominated. As passionate and entertaining as they no doubt are, they take up as much as a quarter of debate time. But that is a problem for the Democratic Party to deal with.
Although a certain amount of boredom is setting in with these large joint appearances in lieu of combat-ready debates between the real contenders, tonight will be interesting.
This will be, in some measure, because of the YouTube factor, despite the fact that it is frankly a gimmick, an attempt to look hip. If we’re being frank, it will essentially be the video equivalent of a Commonwealth Club event, since the moderators at CNN will select the questions just as they would amongst a bunch of handwritten cards collected from a luncheon audience.
Obama, who is trouncing Hillary in fundraising and generally draws much larger and more engaged crowds, is finally getting better at the soundbite politics of these large joint appearance forums and debates. That will be the key question for the spinmeisters following the debate. Will he best her? (One might ask whether he wants to start winning debates against her yet. After all, she makes a wonderful protective target for all the attacks from the right.)
This poll, incidentally, is from Fox News, so conservatives may not be so quick to dispute it. But while Clinton and Obama both lead the national Republican poll leader, Rudy Giuliani by about the same margin — five or six points — Clinton’s generic problem pops up against Fred Thompson. She only leads the putative champion of the right by nine points. Obama leads Thompson by 16 points.
** CALIFORNIA BUDGET UPDATE. The impasse, as I reported yesterday, over California’s three-weeks overdue state budget continues. Not surprising, since the state Senate, where the problem has now concentrated itself, isn’t scheduled to meet again until Wednesday. California is one of only three states in the nation which requires a two-thirds vote of both houses of the Legislature to pass a state budget. The Democrats have a big majority in the Senate, but are two votes short of two-thirds of the house.
When Arnold Schwarznegger came in as governor, I wrote publicly and said privately that he needed to rein in the excesses of the ultra-government faction and the anti-government faction. That hasn’t really happened, and deserves a much longer discussion than it’s going to get on this fine Sunday morning.
Now Senate Republicans are blocking a pretty tough budget passed on a bipartisan basis early Saturday morning in the Assembly.
They say they want more cuts. But they won’t say what those cuts are. That simply is not a serious position.
They’ve made late-breaking demands. They say they want more tax breaks. It’s not clear what those are, or how that makes sense in a strapped budget. They say they want to stop lawsuits that might prevent leapfrog development and require mitigation of the increased carbon load from some new development in furtherance of the goals of California’s landmark climate change legislation. Which they all opposed. This has nothing to do with the budget.
When the spotlight turns to you, gentlemen, it’s best to have your act together.
** PETE WILSON DIES. NOT THAT PETE WILSON. The rumor flashed through California political circles on Friday. Former Governor and Senator Pete Wilson had died. Well, not really.
Brits invade America this weekend with Harry Potter and David Beckham.
Woo-hoo. Blur’s “Song 2″ live at Wembley Arena.
** IT’S BRITISH INVASION WEEKEND IN CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE U.S., WITH HARRY POTTER AND DAVID BECKHAM IN THE LEAD. Fans lined up at bookstores around the country for the 12:01 AM release of the final novel in J.K. Rowling’s epic saga of the boy wizard. And TV cameras from around the globe are converging on LA for the American debut of soccer, excuse me, global football superstar David Beckham with the LA Galaxy.
Meanwhile, in California’s capital, an incongruous budget stalemate continues through the weekend and into next week. Current state Senate Republican leaders, apparently loathe to allow Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger to play his Jedi mind tricks on individual members, refused to go along with the bipartisan budget passed yesterday by the Assembly in the pre-dawn hours. After holding the Senate in session all last night — with Democrats united and the budget just two votes shy of the two-thirds needed for passage, a requirement California shares with only two other states — Senate leader Don Perata released them this morning until this following Wednesday. What more in the way of cuts do Senate Republicans want? Well, they’re back to the secret option. They’re not saying for public consumption. But whatever the cuts are, they also seem to want more business tax breaks and a change in environmental law.
Okay then. Back to the Brit invasion.
The Beckham piece of it may be a bit disappointing. After a tremendous global media buildup of Beckham, one of the most famous athletes in the world, and his glamorous Spice Girl wife “Posh” Victoria, moving from London to LA, the six-time England captain won’t start today’s game between his new LA Galaxy team and English powerhouse Chelsea, on account of a sprained ankle. He may play some later in today’s game, which ESPN is devoting an unprecedented 19 cameras to, including one “Beck-cam” which will be trained on Beckham at all times.
It’s likely that Chelsea, now owned by Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, who I believe, oddly enough, serves in the Russian parliament though he lives in London, will wipe the field with the LA Galaxy. Four of Beckham’s teammates on the England national team play for Chelsea. Beckham, incidentally, now 32, has been on the England national team for 12 straight seasons, beginning in 1996.
While David Beckham is likely to underperform today due to injury, Harry Potter certainly is not. Of course, he is a fictional character, so he can do whatever his author, J.K. Rowling — who was on the dole during the long Conservative reign in Britain only to emerge with her creation as a billionaire with the rise of New Labour in the late ’90s — has him do. And one thing he is definitely doing is creating a sensation among readers of all ages.
There has been a tremendous furor over purported spoilers on the Internet from the close of the seven-book series, at least one of which is apparently quite wrong, and the first run of books in America alone is a record 12 million copies. Meanwhile, the fifth movie in the Harry Potter series is in theaters across America and the world, setting other records in the process.
The rise of Harry Potter, like the rise of David Beckham, coincided with a number of things in Britain, including the rise of New Labour and Tony Blair — and Blair will be in California again this fall for another high-profile event with Arnold Schwarzenegger — which all falls under the rubric of Cool Britannia. (A take-off, obviously, on the historic phrase from the British Empire, “Rule Britannia.”) Cool Britannia was, and, it turns out, still is, about soft power, a cultural assertiveness, rather than the classic imperialism of the past.
Much of it centered around music, and the rise of what was called BritPop. A number of key bands emerged in the ’90s, reacting against the stolid culture of the Conservative years in Britain under Prime Ministers Margaret Thatcher and John Major. The most important were Oasis and Blur, the latter seen above with their ubiquitous anthem, “Song 2.”
Oasis, ironically the working class heroes from Manchester opposed to the college boys in Blur, were the softer, more Beatles-esque, and hence more globally popular of the bands. Other groups were in the mix as well, including the most popular of all, the Spice Girls, which included David Beckham’s wife, Posh, though musical purists are loathe to give them any respect beyond the commercial.
Literary properties were key, with the emergence of Rowling’s Harry Potter coinciding with Blair’s landslide election in 1997, and the revival of Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings, a great Blair favorite, into a massive movie trilogy which swept the world.
British fashion resurfaced during this period as well, as well as other quintessentially British cinematic properties. The James Bond franchise was revived and achieved even greater global success. As did the Bond take-off, the Austin Powers series, which cleverly celebrated things British as it spoofed them to hilarious effect. And a host of outstanding actors and actresses emerged, which I don’t think I’ll name because I don’t want to leave anyone out.
And, of course, there was the impact of the late Princess Diana. Not to mention the inimitable genius of Sacha Baron Cohen, aka Borat, Ali G, and Bruno.
Seizing the cultural moment of Cool Britannia even as it spurred it on was Blair and his New Labour Party. The reinvention of the stodgy old socialist, hard left Labour Party was “modern” — key word of the extended moment — as well as politically flexible, into innovation, entrepreneurship, retooled public services, and emerging environmental issues.
New Labour seized the center of British politics as it spurred and seized the cultural energy of Cool Britannia. In the process, it wholly marginalized the Conservative Party. The Tories are re-emerging only now by themselves seeking the center, adopting a tree as their logo, and presenting their own version of Tony Blair, 41-year old David Cameron, as their standardbearer.
A few things to think about on an otherwise quiet Saturday seized by the latest British invasion.
U.S. Secretary of State Condi Rice discusses a Palestinian state.
The former Stanford University provost and longtime Bush family
advisor wants to be the lead peace negotiator.
** CALIFORNIA BUDGET: GOING FOR IT IN THE SENATE. With the companion bill on tax breaks dead and no Republicans voting, yet, for the budget passed by the state Assembly, Senate leader Don Perata is going for it tonight, going old school, keeping the Senate in session to produce the budget. All 25 Senate Democrats are present and voting for the budget. Only two Republicans are needed to reach the two-thirds requirement. California is one of only three states in the nation with this super-majority requirement on passing a budget.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has endorsed the budget passed by the Assembly, and promises his fellow Republicans some additional cuts via his “blue pencil,” but warns that zeroing out the operating deficit this year would cut into education, so it is unacceptable. I almost wish I were there. Almost. After all, they wouldn’t let me into the actual caucusing.
** CALIFORNIA BUDGET UPDATE. The state budget didn’t get any Republican votes on its first pass in the state Senate. It passed the Assembly early this morning on a bipartisan vote.
** THERE IS SOME NOVEL COMING OUT. Incidentally, I keep hearing there is some book coming out about a fellow named Harry Potter, I believe. Perhaps I should look into this.
Of course, this is the time-honored pattern of unconventional warfare. Large forces move into an area and begin to suppress enemy activity. Is it because they are defeating the enemy? Or is it because they are dispersing the enemy?
In my opinion, the US is playing for time to settle the crisis in Iraq, a process which requires adept diplomacy involving all the players in the region. The deal is not yet cooked.
** CALIFORNIA BUDGET UPDATE. State Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata has rejected the package of tax breaks sent over as a companion bill to the budget by the Assembly. He’s scheduled a floor session for 3 PM.
** BO DEREK BACKS RUDY. Actress Bo Derek, star of the film 10, announced today her endorsement of Rudy Giuliani’s campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. Victoria Beckham has not yet announced her pick. Incidentally, NWN is again falling behind on the Posh and Becks come to LA storyline.
** CALI BUDGET UPDATE. More on the ever exciting — oh, not so much — California budget fight. The state Senate is set to go into session at 11 AM to take up the budget passed early this morning on a bipartisan vote by the Assembly. Which has recessed for summer vacation. The current version of the budget has occasioned much fulminating on hyperpartisan blogs of the right and left, but not many comments there.
Meanwhile, Blair arrives in Jerusalem on Monday. Israelis and the currently governing Fatah faction of the Palestinian Authority are hailing his arrival. Blair will spend a week out of every month in the region, operating out of a new headquarters in Jerusalem.
** CALIFORNIA ASSEMBLY PASSES STATE BUDGET WITH BIPARTISAN VOTE.In the pre-dawn hours this morning, the state Assembly passed a budget backed by Speaker Fabian Nunez and Assembly Republican Leader Mike Villines. The vote was 56-23. Nine Republicans voted for the budget, including their leader. The budget would wittle the state’s operating deficit down to about a half-billion dollars, establish a much larger budget reserve, accelerate the repayment of bonds, transfer some $1.3 billion in surging gas tax revenues from transit to the general fund, delay for several months a cost of living adjustment for some welfare programs, preserve K-12 and university funding, and provide as much a half-billion in new tax incentives for research & development and the preservation of movie jobs. This latter is in a companion bill, however, not the budget bill itself. Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata has already denounced it. The Senate will meet today to take up the state budget, which is now 20 days according to the constitutional guideline.
** AL QAEDA’S AMERICAN PRISONERS STILL NOT LOCATED. American troops are now in the midst of a 69th day of searching for the remaining two US soldiers captured by Al Qaeda in an ambush south of Baghdad. They have had no luck so far. A video put out by Al Qaeda forces in Iraq claims that all three men were executed after being captured. But, with the exception of the Californian found floating in the Euphrates River, that claim can’t be confirmed. The US high command in Baghdad has revealed that ID cards for the other two American prisoners were found in an Al Qaeda safehouse on June 9th.
Perhaps it’s true that “Things Can Only Get Better” in the Middle
East. They’ve been pretty bad. But, despite some positive new
signs, it’s not really as upbeat as the New Labour theme song.
** LATE UPDATE. The state budget will pass the California Assembly with the bipartisan support of Speaker Fabian Nunez and Assembly Republican Leader Mike Villines.
** CALIFORNIA BUDGET UPDATE. The state Assembly will convene this evening at 8:15 PM. Meanwhile, the conservative Republican Flash Report is issuing impassioned directives telling Republicans to vote “No” on the budget, most lately finding a “hidden poison pill” that has something to do with illegal immigrants and abortion, I believe.
** MIDDLE EAST QUARTET MEETS, NO HAMAS NEGOTIATION, BLAIR TO ISRAEL ON TUESDAY. Former Prime Minister-turned-Mideast envoy Tony Blair met today in Lisbon, Portugal with the the UN secretary general and the foreign ministers of the US, Russia, and European Union. US Secretary of State Condi Rice succeeded, at least for now, in preventing Blair negotiating with the powerful Hamas faction of Palestinians. For the time being, he is to work only with the Fatah faction, which still holds the top governmental offices of the Palestinian Authority. Although the Quartet would not say when Blair will begin his mission to the Middle East, Israeli President Shimon Peres’s office announced that Blair will meet with Peres in Israel on Tuesday. Blair will set up shop in Jerusalem, splitting time between his new envoy’s office there and his office in London.
Undersecretary of Defense Eric Edelman wrote: “Premature and public discussion of the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq reinforces enemy propaganda that the United States will abandon its allies in Iraq, much as we are perceived to have done in Vietnam, Lebanon and Somalia. Such talk understandably unnerves the very same Iraqi allies we are asking to assume enormous personal risks.”
The Clinton campaign reacted angrily, vowing that the senator will take up the matter with Edelman’s boss, Secretary of Defense Bob Gates. Clinton and other have been pushing the Pentagon to draft plans for what would be a complicated withdrawal of personnel and materiel.
** CALIFORNIA BUDGET VOTES TENTATIVELY SET FOR TOMORROW. Amidst signs that the two parties are closing in on a state budget solution, the state Assembly and Senate this afternoon made tentative plans for budget votes on Friday. Democrats and Republicans appear to be closest together in the Assembly, where the operating deficit looks to be reduced to under a billion dollars as Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez says there will be no cuts in K-12 education. That leaves other areas of education prone to some reductions.
In the Senate, however, where longtime Republican leader Dick Ackerman is in a more tenuous situation with his caucus than his Assembly counterpart, Mike Villines, things are not quite so close together. Ackerman continued today, reportedly, to talk about 1% to 2% cuts in programs across the board.
The Republican strategy here has been somewhat mystifying. First a refusal to outline any budget cuts while calling for big ones. Then a secret list of cuts they wouldn’t talk about except to their colleagues. Now an across-the-board approach.
The Lisbon conference includes United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in addition to Blair.
We focus on a lot of negative things here, but the positive signs include Israel’s decision to release 250 Palestinian prisoners and free up major funding for the Palestinian Authority, an international donors committee headed by Norway moving to ramp up fundraising efforts for the Palestinians, and President Bush calling an international conference on settling the Israeli-Palestinian question. You’ve heard me mention this before, but this is another of the Iraq Study Group proposals spurned late last year and early this that has now been adopted by the Bush Administration.
That conference is to be chaired by Secretary of State Rice. She wants to be the one to negotiate peace between Israel and the Palestinians, with new Mideast envoy and former Prime Minister Blair playing the lead role in revitalizing the badly fractured Palestinians — the Fatah and Hamas factions are virtually at war — and laying the groundwork between Palestinians and Israelis.
Actually, because of their ties to Bush, both Blair and Rice are problematic figures. Blair at least has the advantage of not working for Bush, having won three national elections on his own, all by much larger margins than Bush’s own two national victories. Rice was Bush’s national security advisor before becoming secretary of state, and was Bush’s campaign foreign policy advisor.
Rice is essentially an academic, whose expertise was the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, who has worked on policy planning staffs prior to becoming a Cabinet member. Educated at the University of Denver, where her minister father was an assistant dean and friend of then Senator Gary Hart, Rice, then an assistant professor at Stanford, was actually on a foreign policy advisory board for Hart’s think tank, the Center for A New Democracy, where I met her as its West Coast rep. But she was already moving in a Republican direction. As a woman and longtime Bush staffer, she will find it difficult going playing the leading role she has in mind for herself.
For Blair, this is an opportunity for redemption after the failures of Iraq. Most everything else went rather well to extremely well, including his lead role in working out a lasting peace agreement in the once seemingly intractable religious morass of Northern Ireland, as well as successful military interventions in Kosovo, Sierra Leone, and Afghanistan.
It was actually Blair, along with then Secretary of State Colin Powell, who played the leading diplomatic role traveling around the world in the wake of 9/11 rallying support for an anti-jihadist effort. It worked very well in helping swiftly overthrow the regime in Afghanistan and in helping disrupt potential support networks for Al Qaeda around the world. But after toppling a heinous dictator in the form of Saddam Hussein, Iraq has proved to be another matter.
Blair’s presence as the Quartet’s envoy has already re-established the centrality of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process in dealing with the convoluted Middle Eastern affairs — something which had been staunchly opposed by hardline conservatives in the Bush Administration and elsewhere — and places one of the highest-profile people in the world in the midst of the ME mix. It also restores the utility of a multilateral approach, which Blair frequently pushed during the Iraq episodes, especially in the aftermath of Saddam’s overthrow, only to be brushed aside by Vice President Dick Cheney and former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
** NEW ZOGBY NATIONAL POLL IS GOOD NEWS FOR CLINTON AND OBAMA. The new Zogby national poll of Democratic vs. Republican presidential match-ups is good news for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, not so good news for John Edwards, and bad news for John McCain. Clinton has come up in the polls, and now leads all four of the major Republican contenders: Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, and McCain. Obama has stayed strong, continuing to lead all the Republicans, as he did before, two months ago.
Clinton’s surge is attributed to strong support from women and new support from independents and moderates. This coincides with the solidified slump in support for President George W. Bush and with even greater opposition to the Iraq policy, with which all the Republican contenders are aligned. As a result, Clinton now leads Giuliani and McCain, after trailing them in the previous poll, and continues to lead Thompson and Romney, the two candidates running as the conservatives in the field.
For John Edwards, the news is mixed. He leads only two of the Republicans, the most conservative candidates. He continues to narrowly trail Giuliani, and his lead over Thompson has declined. But he leads Romney by a healthy margin and is now tied with McCain. The latter result, however, is due to McCain’s decline. The one-time presidential frontrunner has seen his support among independents and moderates fall in the wake of his controversial stands in favor of the Iraq War and in favor of the failed comprehensive immigration bill.
The poll does not measure Democrat Bill Richardson, who is slowly rising in the early states and has moved into third place in a new poll of the New Hampshire primary.
The poll is not good news for New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, considering an independent run for president. When his name is thrown into the match-ups, he garners only 6% to 11%, and does not affect the outcomes. This could change if the media multi-billionaire invested heavily in an advertising campaign.
Hillary Clinton Match-ups (7/14/2007)
Clinton 45%, McCain 43%
Clinton 46%, Giuliani 41%
Clinton 48%, Romney 38%
Clinton 47%, Thompson 41%
Hillary Clinton Match-ups (5/17/2007)
McCain 47%, Clinton 43%
Giuliani 48%, Clinton 43%
Clinton 48%, Romney 40%
Clinton 48%, Thompson 41%
Among moderates, Clinton expanded a six–point edge in May (48%–42%) to a massive 24–point lead, now besting Giuliani by 55% to 31%. Against McCain, she went from a 49%–45% deficit among moderates to a huge 52% to 35% lead. This matches her against the two moderate Republican leaders in the presidential race.
Among independents, she moved from a 47%–39% deficit against McCain to a 46%–36% lead over him. Against Giuliani, Clinton moved from a one–point deficit among independents to a five–point lead.
** U.K. OFFICIALS SAY THEY ARRESTED WOULD-BE HITMAN OF OLIGARCH.British law enforcement officials tell the Guardian that a hitman entered the country from Russia last month with the purpose of killing exiled Russian oligarch Boris Berezovsky. They arrested him and deported him. Berezovsky was a patron of the assassinated former Russian intelligence officer Alexander Litvinenko, whose agonizing death by polonium poisoning captured the world’s attention. Berezovsky, like many of the Russian oligarchs, came to great wealth and power by political connections and ruthless methods, essentially becoming a robber baron. He is one of a number of super-rich Russians now in London. He is a fierce opponent of Russian President Vladimir Putin — Litvinenko, with his support, wrote a sensational book claiming that Putin staged terrorist attacks in Moscow to consolidate his rule — and says that the Russian government is out to get him. Who is to know? (To coin a phrase.) But someone from Russia certainly was out to get him. Meanwhile, Russia is expelling four British diplomats, suspending joint counterterrorism efforts with the UK, and preventing British officials from gaining visas.
** UPBEAT CALIFORNIA BUDGET TALKS. California legislative leaders talked and met at length yesterday and, sources say, things are going rather well. The Republicans seem to have dropped their secret budget cuts, described as draconian in some instances — hence the secrecy — and there are signs they are for a “trim” of existing programs. That would be one or two percent. But Democrats may hang tough on protecting K-12 education from any trimming.
** AL QAEDA’S AMERICAN PRISONERS STILL NOT LOCATED. American troops are now in the midst of a 68th day of searching for the remaining two US soldiers captured by Al Qaeda in an ambush south of Baghdad. They have had no luck so far. A video put out by Al Qaeda forces in Iraq claims that all three men were executed after being captured. But, with the exception of the Californian found floating in the Euphrates River, that claim can’t be confirmed. The US high command in Baghdad has revealed that ID cards for the other two American prisoners were found in an Al Qaeda safehouse on June 9th.
Senator Joe Biden, Foreign Relations Committee chairman
and Democratic presidential candidate, discusses Iraq.
** U.S. PRESSURES ALREADY PRESSURED PAKISTANI PRESIDENT. With yesterday’s National Intelligence Estimate telling us what we already knew — that Al Qaeda has revived and enjoys a haven in frontier region of Pakistan — the US today began pressuring anew Pakistani President Pervez Musharaff to crack down on the terrorist group and its sympathizers. With Musharaff’s hold on his country more tenuous in the wake of his bloody crackdown on the Red Mosque in Islamabad, and with significant elements of his armed forces and intelligence services pro-jihadist, that will be easier said than done.
All this adds to the burden of Tony Blair and others in the reconstituted Quartet group.
** TONY BLAIR AND SCHWARZENEGGER EVENT THIS FALL. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Prime Minister Tony Blair meet up again this fall in California. Joined by moderator and New York Times columnist Tom Friedman, Blair and Schwarzenegger will discuss the state of global environmental politics on October 23rd in Long Beach.
The Blair/Schwarzenegger confab will be part of California’s annual Women’s Conference, organized by First Lady Maria Shriver. Blair is in Lisbon, Portugal tomorrow for a conference on potential peace processes in the Middle East. The former prime minister, who spent much of his final full day in office late last month with Schwarzenegger in London, is now special Mideast envoy for the Quartet, a coalition of the US, Russia, UN, and European Union.
** TAUSCHER ENDORSES CLINTON. Suburban Bay Area Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher, a wealth former investment banker-turned-moderate Democratic politician, this afternoon became the latest California politician to endorse Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign. Tauscher, who chairs the moderate New Democrat Caucus in the Congress, is a bete noire of some “netroots” activists for her moderate and sometimes pro-business politics and what they see as a lack of alacrity in turning away from George W. Bush to oppose the Iraq War.
** CALIFORNIA BUDGET UPDATE. Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez’s office passed on this transcript of Nunez’s Capitol hallway interview this morning with KCRA-TV’s Kevin Riggs and Araceli Martinez of La Opinion.
Q: The fact that there’s been a cancellation of this budget vote today, am I to interpret that to mean there’s some serious progress being made?
A: I think what happened last night when we had a meeting of the four legislative leaders – I think we all realized we wanted to get to a close. Senator Perata and I were going to declare an impasse this morning and have a vote on a Democratic version of a budget, and we decided not to do that. And that’s for a reason: because we’re making considerable progress.
(With Assembly Republican Leader Mike Villines walking by …) We’re proud of our friends on the other side of the aisle. In particular I’m proud of Mike Villines. He’s a great leader for California. He’s a great Republican, a good human being, and a wonderful human being.
No, in all honesty, I think we’re demonstrating real leadership, when the four legislative leaders, on their own, can get together and agree on a budget that makes sense for California. So, we feel really good about where we are, and I’m not going to tell you when we go up for a vote or I’m not going to tell you that we have an agreement – because we don’t have an agreement – but I feel very good about the progress that has been made over the past 24 hours.
Q: What have the Democrats been willing to offer the Republicans to get those votes you need?
A: Well look, the Republicans have made a point about a significant reduction in the operating budget. That has a multi-year impact on California’s fiscal situation. And the fact of the matter is we do have to get our fiscal house in order. At the same time, while the Republicans push for fiscal solvency, Democrats want to maintain social programs that are important to California’s future. I think what you do is balance the two. You show fiscal restraint, but at the same time, you show the compassion that Californians want us to have for the needy, and we’ve done that in this budget.
Q: This report of cutting education funding that the Republicans are pushing, what would you say?
A: At this point, I can tell you that we will not be cutting K-12 education.
Q: What are the main points of negotiation?
A: At this point, I’m not going to get into details about the negotiations themselves other than to say that a lot of progress has been made.
Q: Are they more flexible, the Republicans?
A: I think everyone is working closely together.
** NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL.Interesting results in a new poll for the New Hampshire presidential primary from CNN/WMUR. While Hillary Clinton leads on the Democratic side, Barack Obama is a strong second. But the big news there is that John Edwards has slid into fourth place. Bill Richardson is now running third, just ahead of Edwards. The numbers are Clinton 36%, Obama 27%, Richardson 11%, and Edwards 9%. Edwards has lost over half his support since April.
On the Republican side, Mitt Romney, who’s been advertising for months and is very familiar from the dominant Boston media market, has a sizeable lead over Rudy Giuliani, with Fred Thompson and John McCain running distantly behind. It’s Romney 34%, Giuliani 20%, Thompson 13%, and McCain 12%. McCain dropped eight points since June.
** CALIFORNIA BUDGET VOTE POSTPONED. Democratic legislative leaders have just postponed a scheduled vote on the state budget today after lengthy meetings last night with their Republican counterparts.
The Democrats leaked some of the apparent details of the secret Republican plan for $2 billion in cuts to the powerful education lobby and the Los Angeles Times. Some $400 million would reportedly cut from education in that scenario. Republicans would not comment on the figure.
** AL QAEDA’S AMERICAN PRISONERS STILL NOT LOCATED. American troops are now in the midst of a 67th day of searching for the remaining two US soldiers captured by Al Qaeda in an ambush south of Baghdad. They have had no luck so far. A video put out by Al Qaeda forces in Iraq claims that all three men were executed after being captured. But, with the exception of the Californian found floating in the Euphrates River, that claim can’t be confirmed. The US high command in Baghdad has revealed that ID cards for the other two American prisoners were found in an Al Qaeda safehouse on June 9th.
The trend of California’s Republican Party being under the control of a hard right wing faction has continued with the party’s executive board voting narrowly to exclude independent voters, the state’s fastest growing voter group, from next year’s presidential primary. The vote was 11 to 9 last Friday, with legislative leaders Mike Villines and Dick Ackerman backing the exclusion and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former state Republican chairman Duf Sundheim opposed.
Schwarzenegger was not present at the meeting, participating by a proxy. Democrats, seeking to appeal to the huge phenomenon of the independent voter, encourage decline to state registrants to vote in their primary, hoping to gain their backing in the general election.
The exclusion of independent voters from the presidential primary follows on the heels of the failed hiring of an Australian citizen with no experience in California politics to direct the state party apparatus. The individual, Michael Kamburowski, had worked with new state GOP chairman Ron Nehring for controversial Washington conservative power broker Grover Norquist in the 1990s. Norquist, by several accounts, came to California and pressed Kamburowski’s case on party board members. But the hiring incited a rebellion in the party, and Kamburowski was forced to resign after revelations of his lack of any relevant political experience in this decade and a history of serious legal problems with US immigration authorities. Kamburowski was jailed for a month, but did gain and maintain a green card after two marriages to American women.
After a period in which party leadership embraced appeals to independent voters, the fastest growing segment of voters in the state, key to Schwarzenegger’s two victories, the new party leadership, which now features hyperpartisan bloggers Jon Fleischman and Tom Del Beccaro in elected leadership positions, wants to ignore them, banning them from participating in next year’s early presidential primary.
“I don’t know how you function as a modern political party in California without reaching out to independent voters,” says former party chairman Sundheim. He pushed for their inclusion in the presidential primary.
But the motion by Flash Report publisher and Southern California vice chairman Fleischman and state party vice chairman Del Beccaro carried the day. Fleischman says: “Only Republicans should decide who our candidates are. If they want to vote in our primary, they should become Republicans.”
It’s an attitude that Democrats adore. “We want independents to vote in our primary,” says strategist Roger Salazar. “Let those guys have their little conservative clubhouse if they want.”
While the Norquist connection intrigues — he is one of the most controversial figures in Washington, closely tied to disgraced and convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff — the role of the hyperpartisan bloggers is also key. They use the new power of the Internet to promote a political orthodoxy that in some very major respects is very much at odds with the views of actual Republican voters.
Unlike most Republican voters, according to many polls, these new leaders not only oppose any increase in the minimum wage, but the existence of the minimum wage. “The minimum wage is socialism,” says Fleischman.
They oppose Schwarzenegger’s environmental programs, in particular his drive to curtail greenhouse gas emissions and, in most cases, deny that the greenhouse effect exists. Again, in stark contrast to the views of most Republican voters.
The far right slant of the Flash Report particularly affects Republicans in the Assembly. As one source in the Schwarzenegger circle puts it: “Sometimes the Assembly caucus will seem fine. Then they’ll read something on the Flash Report and get all exercised about it.”
These new party leaders come out of the hard right — such as the California Republican Assembly (CRA) and the Young Americans for Freedom (YAF) — whose ranks are actually small in numbers, as the CRA draws a few hundred to its conventions. But, like the hyperpartisans and ideologues of the Democratic Party, they are very persistent. CRA president Mike Spence, one of the most prominent Flash Report figures, calls Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez “a Communist fellow traveler.”
Grover Norquist is the former employer of both Nehring and Kamburowski, who worked on Norquist projects in the 1990s. Nehring is no longer on Norquist’s staff, but he does have Norquist as a client of his new consulting firm.
Wall Street Journal editorial board member John Fund says that Norquist is at the hub of conservative politics in Washington, D.C. He was a co-author of Newt Gingrich’s “Contract With America.” He has a web of issue-related groups. He is a longtime friend and close associate of disgraced influence peddler Jack Abramoff, having run Abramoff’s campaign to be head of the national College Republicans back in the day. More recently, Norquist, according to reports, ran funds from Abramoff clients through his issue-related groups.
A key Norquist quote: “I don’t want to abolish government. I simply want to reduce it to the size where I can drag it into the bathroom and drown it in the bathtub.”
Osama bin Laden in his heyday following the 9/11 attacks. The
U.S. government releases a report today on the resurgence of
Al Qaeda, but bin Laden himself has been curiously absent.
He had been expected to declare in the first half of July. But that just ended. Many enthusiasts believed he would go on the 4th, but that was never in the cards. I’ve heard, and reported, that he might declare in August, while another source told me it will be after Labor Day. MSNBC reports the announcement “could slide into early September.” Meanwhile, Thompson enthusiast and Tennessee Congressman Zach Womp said that he expects Thompson to get in any day now.
** “FAB FOUR” MEET ON CALI BUDGET. The Big Five minus one, the one being Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, have been talking throughout the day about the California budget impasse. And have just met, or are just meeting now. Frankly, all these balls in the air are starting to blur a bit. The four are the two Democratic legislative leaders, Don Perata and Fabian Nunez, and the two Republican legislative leaders, Dick Ackerman and Mike Villines. No agreements yet, but there does seem to be whittling in advance of tomorrow’s scheduled budget vote. There’s still something quite weightless about this budget fight that’s not a fight. Schwarzenegger, incidentally, is off the trail tomorrow, holding private meetings in and around the Capitol.
** CRUCIAL BACKING FOR ARNOLD’S NEW AIR BOARD CHIEF. As expected, Mary Nichols, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s new pick to run the California Air Resources Board, which is charged as the lead agency in developing the implementation of the state’s landmark climate change law, won the backing earlier today of Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata and Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez. Nichols appeared before the Senate Rules Committee this morning for a preliminary run-through on her confirmation. She pledged to be aggressive in working to make the law a success.
** ANALYZING THE ANALYSIS. THAT’S IT? So there it is just below, all 700-odd words of it, about the size of an average column. The unclassified portion of the National Intelligence Estimate on the terrorist threat. The classified portion is said to be not quite twice as much more. What’s remarkable about it is how obvious the level of information is and how vague the findings are. That, and the fact that the administration is saying America is more vulnerable today to attack than at any time since the 9/11 period.
Which is not exactly an implicit endorsement of the course the country’s been on. One could just as easily accept everything in that document at face value and use it to indict the Bush administration and its political allies.
One thing in particular is of interest, and that’s the notion of the huge resurgence of Al Qaeda itself. Which Al Qaeda is that? The original Al Qaeda, the one that orchestrated the 9/11 attacks that shook America and the Madrid attacks that brought down the Spanish government? Or more of an affiliate Al Qaeda, inspired by and perhaps in some contact with the original group?
That certainly seems to be the case with Al Qaeda in Iraq, which didn’t exist before the US invasion. Al Qaeda in Iraq exists because of the failures of the US policy there, and now it is a proving ground for a new generation of terrorists. And what of the “doctors’ plot” in Britain, with their failed attacks on London and Glasgow a couple of weeks ago? How did that cell come into being? Directed by the original Al Qaeda, or an offshoot of some inspired affiliate? If you’re going to fight something, you have to understand it. This National Intelligence Estimate is a paltry document.
** THE UNCLASSIFIED PORTION OF THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON THE TERRORIST THREAT. IN ITS ENTIRETY.We judge the US Homeland will face a persistent and evolving terrorist threat over the next three years. The main threat comes from Islamic terrorist groups and cells, especially al-Qa’ida, driven by their undiminished intent to attack the Homeland and a continued effort by these terrorist groups to adapt and improve their capabilities.
We assess that greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of al-Qa’ida to attack the US Homeland again and have led terrorist groups to perceive the Homeland as a harder target to strike than on 9/11. These measures have helped disrupt known plots against the United States since 9/11.
• We are concerned, however, that this level of international cooperation may wane as 9/11 becomes a more distant memory and perceptions of the threat diverge.
Al-Qa’ida is and will remain the most serious terrorist threat to the Homeland, as its central leadership continues to plan high-impact plots, while pushing others in extremist Sunni communities to mimic its efforts and to supplement its capabilities. We assess the group has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: a safehaven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational lieutenants, and its top leadership. Although we have discovered only a handful of individuals in the United States with ties to al-Qa’ida senior leadership since 9/11, we judge that al-Qa’ida will intensify its efforts to put operatives here.
• As a result, we judge that the United States currently is in a heightened threat
environment.
We assess that al-Qa’ida will continue to enhance its capabilities to attack the Homeland through greater cooperation with regional terrorist groups. Of note, we assess that al-Qa’ida will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the Homeland. In addition, we assess that its association with AQI helps al-Qa’ida to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and to recruit and
indoctrinate operatives, including for Homeland attacks.
We assess that al-Qa’ida’s Homeland plotting is likely to continue to focus on prominent political, economic, and infrastructure targets with the goal of producing mass casualties, visually dramatic destruction, significant economic aftershocks, and/or fear among the US population. The group is proficient with conventional small arms and improvised explosive devices, and is innovative in creating new capabilities and overcoming security obstacles.
• We assess that al-Qa’ida will continue to try to acquire and employ chemical,
biological, radiological, or nuclear material in attacks and would not hesitate to use them if it develops what it deems is sufficient capability.
We assess Lebanese Hizballah, which has conducted anti-US attacks outside the United States in the past, may be more likely to consider attacking the Homeland over the next three years if it perceives the United States as posing a direct threat to the group or Iran.
We assess that the spread of radical—especially Salafi—Internet sites, increasingly aggressive anti-US rhetoric and actions, and the growing number of radical, self-generating cells in Western countries indicate that the radical and violent segment of the West’s Muslim population is expanding, including in the United States. The arrest and prosecution by US law enforcement of a small number of violent Islamic extremists inside the United States— who are becoming more connected ideologically, virtually, and/or in a physical sense to the global extremist movement—points to the possibility that others may become sufficiently radicalized that they will view the use of violence here as legitimate. We assess that this internal Muslim terrorist threat is not likely to be as severe as it is in Europe, however.
We assess that other, non-Muslim terrorist groups—often referred to as “single-issue” groups by the FBI—probably will conduct attacks over the next three years given their violent histories, but we assess this violence is likely to be on a small scale. We assess that globalization trends and recent technological advances will continue to enable even small numbers of alienated people to find and connect with one another, justify and intensify their anger, and mobilize resources to attack—all without requiring a centralized terrorist organization, training camp, or leader.
• The ability to detect broader and more diverse terrorist plotting in this environment will challenge current US defensive efforts and the tools we use to detect and disrupt plots. It will also require greater understanding of how suspect activities at the local level relate to strategic threat information and how best to identify indicators of terrorist activity in the midst of legitimate interactions.
** SICKO‘S BOX OFFICE IMPACT: MODERATE. Michael Moore’s film on the problems of the US health care system broadened its run into nearly 800 theaters around the country this past weekend, but its take was down. Sicko grossed $2.6 million over the weekend, after doing $3.6 million the previous weekend. Its total domestic box office coming out of the weekend was $15.8 million. It’s a very good number for a documentary, and it looks like the film will best his Oscar-winning Bowling for Columbine, which grossed $21.6 million, at the box office. But, despite heavy publicity and promotion, and a lot of work by activist groups, it’s clearly not breaking out the way Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11 did in grossing nearly $120 million.
** NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE DAY. The National Intelligence Estimate on Terrorism comes out later this morning. It should be viewable here. It’s been much leaked in dribs and drabs, but not in its entirety, and should be quite interesting, especially given the U.S. Senate’s extended session today and tonight on Iraq.
Has Al Qaeda experienced a resurgence, as the Bush administration is saying? And wouldn’t that be an implicit acknowledgement of failure? How do you define Al Qaeda these days? Osama bin Laden, seen above, hasn’t been seen in new video footage for a long time.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton 34%, Barack Obama 25%, Al Gore 16%, John Edwards 9%. Clinton had a 16-point lead over Obama in the last Gallup Poll, now it’s down to nine points.
** SCHWARZENEGGER DELTA WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, continuing to push for a new water policy, tours the Sacramento River Delta at the top of San Francisco Bay this morning and has a live webcast at 10:15 AM.
** THE REPUBLICAN PARTY SPLIT OVER INDEPENDENTS. At the end of last week, the California Republican Party’s executive board narrowly voted to exclude independent voters from the crucial February 5th California Republican presidential primary. The motion, by two hyperpartisan bloggers now playing high elected roles in the state party, Jon Fleischman and Tom Del Beccaro, carried narrowly on an 11-9 vote. Among those in favor were the Republican leaders of the state Senate and Assembly, Dick Ackerman and Mike Villines. Among those opposed were Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, represented by a proxy, and former state Republican chairman Duf Sundheim.
The resolution: The Board of Directors of the California Republican Party supports our current rules that require that you must be a registered Republican to cast a ballot in the Republican Presidential primary in February, 2008.
Senate Leader Dick Ackerman - YES
National Committeewoman Barbara Alby - YES
Pres, County Chairs Assoc. Keen Butcher - NO
Regional Vice Chairman Doug Boyd - YES
Regional Vice Chairman Paul Bruno - YES
Regional Vice Chairman Luis Buhler - NO
Treasurer Keith Carlson - YES
Vice Chairman Tom Del Beccaro - YES
Regional Vice Chairman Jon Fleischman - YES
Secretary Jalene Forbis - YES
Finance Chairman Steve Francis - NO
Regional Vice Chairman Laura Gadke - YES
Budget Chairman Tony Krvaric - YES
Regional Vice Chairman Jerry Maltby - NO
National Committeeman Tim Morgan - NO
Chairman Ron Nehring - NO VOTE CAST
Regional Vice Chairman Mark Pruner - NO
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (via rep) - NO
Immed. Past Chairman Duf Sundheim - NO
Assembly Leader Mike Villines (via rep) - YES
Regional Vice Chairman Aquinetta Warren - NO
** AL QAEDA’S AMERICAN PRISONERS STILL NOT LOCATED. American troops are now in the midst of a 66th day of searching for the remaining two US soldiers captured by Al Qaeda in an ambush south of Baghdad. They have had no luck so far. A video put out by Al Qaeda forces in Iraq claims that all three men were executed after being captured. But, with the exception of the Californian found floating in the Euphrates River, that claim can’t be confirmed. The US high command in Baghdad has revealed that ID cards for the other two American prisoners were found in an Al Qaeda safehouse on June 9th.
