Hillary Clinton effectively parried opponents’ suggestions in last night’s Democratic presidential debate that she sounds like a Republican. But she got into a little trouble at the end on a question about drivers licenses for illegal immigrants.
What does it mean? Well, that’s always a dangerous question in these matters. What it could mean is that Russia, after giving its backing to Iran, is pushing Iran to be more forthcoming with the US on allowing inspections of its nuclear program and in dealing with the security situation in Iraq. The latter is certainly the way Iraqi leaders are playing it.
Or, it could be an attempt to muddy the waters. And it may be that some elements of the US government are so bent on Iran regime change, no matter how murky those scenarios might be, that they aren’t interested in this. In which case they may be dealing with the Russians, as well as terrorists around the world.
** OIL BREAKS $95 BARRIER FOR YET ANOTHER RECORD. Crude oil closed at another record price today, $95.24 per barrel. The latest move upward came on continuing insecurity around events in Iraq, Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan, as well as a decline in US inventories.
** CALIFORNIA CLIMATE CHANGE LAWSUIT DELAYED UNTIL NEXT WEEK. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown have decided to delay the filing of California’s promised lawsuit against the US Environmental Protection Agency until next week. California officials, notably Schwarzenegger, are still mostly focused on the Southern California fires and their aftermath, which includes a substantial federal role.
California is suing the Bush Administration because it has failed to grant the customary waiver under the Clean Air Act to implement the state’s landmark law to cut tailpipe emissions of greenhouse gases. The bill, authored by then Assemblywoman Fran Pavley of LA and signed into law by then Governor Gray Davis, was enacted in 2002
** CLINTON DOMINATES THE FIRST HOUR AND FIFTY EIGHT MINUTES. Well, it just goes to show that you have to watch the entire movie. With two minutes to go last night, Hillary Clinton was in easy command of the latest Democratic presidential debate. John Edwards and, to a surprisingly lesser extent, Barack Obama, had taken some shots at the frontrunner but barely landed a blow. The most dangerous actors for the former first lady on the stage were the moderators, mainly Tim Russert. He asked her what she thought of New York Governor Elliot Spitzer’s move to grant drivers licenses to illegal immigrants. This, of course, is an issue we have great experience with here in California.
Seemingly taken off guard, Clinton seemed to say it seemed a good idea to her. The other candidates were asked if they all agreed. For a moment, it seemed they did. Then Chris Dodd, ironically one of the most liberal of all over the past few decades, piped up. No, he said, “driving is not a right, it’s a privilege.” Some would say it’s a necessity, of course.
Revivified, John Edwards said that he, too, was against the idea. And hit Clinton for seeming to say that she was for the idea and against it.
Actually, there are at least two versions of the Spitzer proposal. Which as NWN has reported, was quite unpopular, at least in the first iteration.
First the once high-flying former New York attorney general proposed full-on drivers licenses for illegal immigrants. This is a loser idea politically, as former Governor Gray Davis can attest. Then he came up with a complex tiered systems of licenses. Which advocates for illegal immigrants, and of course the New York Times, attacked as potential prelude to a crackdown on illegals carrying the lesser licenses.
Be that as it may, that plan flies politically, as Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who proposed his own variant of it a few years ago, knows. But Hillary seemed taken aback. Probably not a part of her extensive work-up for the debate.
Which gets into the question of whether or not she is too robo-pol for this. My guess is she is not, because she is not up against topflight competition.
** GANG RAPE CASE SETTLEMENT IN CASE CENTERING ON CARONA FRIEND’S SON. Orange County Sheriff Mike Carona says he is completely innocent of all the corruption charges brought againt him by the Bush Justice Department. But he won’t answer substantive questions, deferring to his lawyer. Meanwhile, he is staying on in his $200,000 a year job.
The questions underlying this poll were first asked about three weeks ago, making the results more and more attenuated in this fast-paced society.
Support for the term limits change initiative — which would cut the total number of years allowed in the state Legislature from 14 to 12 but allow all those years to be served in one house — is down significantly. In August, at least in this poll, it was at 59%. Now it’s 49% to 31%.
The results are undoubtedly not helped by all the publicity about Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez’s practice of using campaign funds for extensive travel and gifts, including from the Louis Vuitton boutique in Paris. Of course, the people mostly criticizing him, conservative Republicans, haven’t a leg to stand on with their support for indicted Orange County Sheriff Mike Carona. But many California voters have come to the conclusion that the partisans of both persuasions are all jerks.
The casino tribe deals are backed by California voters, 52% to 35%.
The Madrid train bombings, shown here, were a great tragedy.
Today’s verdict was mixed.
The subway bombings in March 2004 killed nearly 200 and wounded another 1800. Coming a few days before the Spanish national elections, they led to one of Al Qaeda’s greatest victories: The downfall of the Spanish government that backed the invasion of Iraq. Spain quickly withdrew its troops in the aftermath.
Russia, now playing an intriguing role in the Iran crisis, just
test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile.
** WHAT DID THE RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER TELL AHMADINEJAD YESTERDAY IN TEHRAN? That’s the question of the day. Russia has cleverly made itself a key pivot of the current face-off between America and Iran. Though many experts find this more theatrical than real, since US military options with regard to Iran are more limited than the enthusiasts think.
** KATIE LEVINSON ON JOE BIDEN. Giuliani communications director Katie Levinson — who was Arnold Schwarzenegger’s campaign communications director in 2006 — on line-of-the-Democratic-debate man Joe Biden: “As the pundits work to figure out who won the debate tonight, it’s pretty clear Rudy Giuliani was the real winner. It is increasingly apparent Rudy is the one the Democrats are most worried about running against in the general election.
“Senator Biden’s comments were of particular interest. The good Senator is quite correct that there are many differences between Rudy and him. For starters, Rudy rarely reads prepared speeches and when he does he isn’t prone to ripping off the text from others. And, Senator Biden certainly falls in to the bucket of those on the stage tonight who have never had executive experience and have never run anything. Wait, I take that back, Senator Biden has never run anything but his mouth.
“Such a desperate attack from Senator Biden is to be expected considering I – Katie Levinson – have a better chance of becoming President than he does.”
Perhaps so, Katie. But then, I might just have a better chance than you of becoming president.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia is fast re-emerging as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Barack Obama is under pressure to make a move in tonight’s Democratic presidential debate in Philadelphia. Seen in this NWN behind-the-scenes video earlier this year in San Diego, Obama trails Hillary Clinton nationally but is in a dead heat in Iowa.
** DEMOCRATIC DEBATE. Long form and short form. Here’s the short form. A generally good night for Hillary Clinton. Until the very end, when she stumbled on the question of drivers licenses for illegal immigrants. Which was a problem for the primaries, in the sense that she seemed to give two different answers. And for the general, should she get there, in the sense that she sounded like she was for the licenses.
For most of the debate, John Edwards was the more effective opponent, though not landing many blows. Barack Obama was an apologetic attacker. Too apologetic, right from the outset, when he described any conflict between he and Clinton as “over-hyped.” He did have a moment midway when Clinton again demurred, under questioning, from agreeing to releae her White House papers, and Obama then pointed out that secrecy is one of the things most disliked about the current presidency.
Throughout, the most troublesome actors on the stage for Clinton were not her opponents, but moderators Tim Russert and Brian Williams.
Best line of the debate, from Joe Biden: “Rudy Giuliani? There’s only three things in a sentence from Rudy Giuliani. A noun, a verb, and 9/11.”
Incidentally, and for the record. I have never seen a UFO. But I would bet there is extraterrestrial life. It would be very strange if we were the only intelligent beings in the universe. Especially given how unintelligent we can be.
** MCCLINTOCK ENDORSES FRED THOMPSON, NOW HIS CALIFORNIA CHAIRMAN. California’s most prominent right-wing politician, state Senator Tom McClintock, this afternoon endorsed Fred Thompson for the Republican presidential nomination. McClintock, never to be confused with a Republican modernizer, has become a very sharp critic of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger since losing his bid for lieutenant governor last November, and is the head of the traditionalist wing of the Republicans in California. He is now the California chairman of the Thompson for President campaign.
After Schwarzenegger delivered his big speech to last month’s state Republican convention in Indian Wells on the need for the party to appeal more to the center and to California’s burgeoning ranks of independent voters, McClintock delivered a pointed rejoinder on Sunday as a convention keynoter.
McClintock has won Republican nominations but lost general elections for lieutenant governor, state controller (twice), and Congress. He ran for governor in the 2003 recall and finished a distant third behind then action movie superstar Schwarzenegger and then Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante.
McClintock was one of the ringleaders of last summer’s state budget stall. After more than a month, he and his compatriots got the same deal as had been on offer all along, and failed in their goal to curb former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown’s power. He campaigned against Schwarzenegger’s Big Bang Bonds infrastructure package last year and has repeatedly claimed that global warming is a hoax.
Indicted along with the sheriff, once one of the Republicans’ top rising stars, were his wife, Deborah Carona, and a Newport Beach lawyer described in the indictment as his “longtime mistress,” Debra Hoffman. You’ll note that it would be difficult for the sheriff to commit a verbal slip with either Debbie …
The three, along with two longtime associates and former Orange County assistant sheriffs who pled guilty to other charges and assisted the Carona investigation, are said to have engaged in a conspiracy dating back to 1998 to use public office to enrich themselves.
Obviously there will be a lot more on this. Some of it was discussed in the morning item.
** AND FULLY BACK UP AND RUNNING.
** NOTE: THIS SITE IS MOVING TO ANOTHER SERVER TODAY, AROUND NOON PACIFIC TIME. NEW WEST NOTES WILL REMAIN ONLINE THROUGHOUT THE PROCESS, BUT PUBLISHING AND FORUM COMMENTS WILL BE OFFLINE FOR A FEW HOURS.
** RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER ON UNANNOUNCED VISIT TO TEHRAN. With war talk around Iran sure to be a big topic in tonight’s Democratic presidential debate, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is at mid-day our time in the midst of an unannounced visit to Tehran. He’s meeting there now with top Iranian officials on the nuclear controversy and other matters, probably including the Iraq security situation. According to this Russian report, from a prominent state-owned outlet, his purpose is to make sure the Iranians stay cool.
Russia is playing a very interesting game, taking advantage of the US preoccupation with Iraq to re-emerge as a great power, siding with Iran against a possible US military strike but holding the country’s nuclear program back.
Hundreds of thousands of US assault rifles and pistols are unaccounted for in Iraq.
This indicates that the big Turkish push across the border won’t happen before November 5th. The longer the Turks wait, the worse the weather in the mountainous region. So maybe we don’t have to worry quite so much about this particular source of global chaos.
** BIG DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE TONIGHT IN PHILADELPHIA. Tonight we will see if her rivals can begin bringing high-flying Democratic presidential frontrunner Hillary Clinton back to earth. The second place candidate, Barack Obama, is expected to make a move in tonight’s debate, which runs from 6 PM to 8 PM Pacific time on MSNBC.
Carona, somewhat narrowly re-elected to a third term last year, was once one of the Republicans’ top rising stars in California. Five years ago he achieved a measure of national fame for leading the hunt for the man who raped and killed a 5-year old girl.
Then action movie superstar Arnold Schwarzenegger was taken with Carona and talked up his leadership potential. But it all went sour after that.
Carona, whose own politics are not that far to the right, has been a key pivot point for a far right faction in Orange County politics.
His lawyer and political advisor, Mike Schroeder, is a former state Republican Party chairman. He ostentatiously walked out of last month’s California Republican convention banquet last month as Schwarzenegger was about to deliver his address urging party reforms to move back toward the center.
The owner of the hyperpartisan right-wing web site Flash Report, Jon Fleischman, was Carona’s longtime PR man. Fleischman built up the Flash Report web site while a public employee working for Carona.
** FIELD POLL, TAKEN BEFORE SOCAL FIRES, SHOWS HIGH APPROVAL FOR SCHWARZENEGGER. DEAD HEAT RACE WITH BOXER FOR SENATE. The Field Poll of California voters, taken from October 11-21, continues to be released in bitelets. In today’s installment, we learn that Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is still very popular. How popular he is today, in the aftermath of his boffo performance managing the Southern California firestorm crisis, we don’t know from this poll, since it was actually taken before last week’s dramatic events.
We do know, at least, that earlier in October, Schwarzenegger had a high job approval rating. With 56% approving of his performance as governor, only 32% disapproving. His job approval is notably higher than that of Senators Dianne Feinstein (51%) and Barbara Boxer (44%) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (35%). But in a match-up with Boxer for her Senate seat, which is up in 2010, it’s Schwarzenegger 44%, Boxer 43%. Again, this poll was taken before the SoCal crisis and is about a campaign that may never take place.
Numbers for the state Legislature weren’t too bad, considering how bad they usually are for the institution: 38% approval, 42% disapproval.
Argentina’s first lady, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, seen here with defeated French Socialist presidential candidate Segolene Royal, is the country’s new president-elect.
Kirchner is credited by Argentinians with bringing the country out of its economic slowdown. But inflation is somewhere between 9% and 20%.
His wife, who is known in the country as Cristina — think Evita — is a somewhat glamorous figure who is nonetheless a lawyer and experienced politician in her own right. She was first elected to state parliament in the 1980s, then made her way into the national parliament and finally the Argentinian Senate as her husband also rose.
Sounds a little like Hillary Clinton, doesn’t it? But her politics seem well to Clinton’s left. Indeed, Cristina swept the votes of the poor and working class, but lost among the much smaller upper middle class.
She’s the second woman to recently become the head of a major government. Germany’s Angela Merkel, a conservative who nonetheless pushes hard for policies against the greenhouse effect, became chancellor last year. But in France earlier this year, Socialist Segolene Royal lost her bid to Nicolas Sarkozy, another conservative who is much less conservative than his American fans on the right imagined.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia is fast re-emerging as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil prices have dipped from yesterday’s record levels but remain high, in the $92 to $93 per barrel range, boosted by the ongoing situations in Iraq, Pakistan, and Iran.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, shown here smoking a joint
in his breakthrough film Pumping Iron, told British GQ that marijuana
is not a drug, it is “a leaf.” Did he really smoke marijuana in the movie,
he’s asked? “I really smoked it. And, I also inhaled.”
** TURKEY FLEXES MUSCLE ON ITS NATIONAL DAY. Turkey staged a major show of military strength today on its national day as talks continue over its pending major incursion into northern Iraq. Clearly the Turks are trying to pressure the US to take action against Kurdish separatist guerillas using northern Iraq as a safe haven.
This is all working out exactly as planned in 2003. Well, not so much …
** CALIFORNIA ELECTORAL COLLEGE INITIATIVE, AKA GOP CONSULTANT ENRICHMENT PLAN. I’m watching with some interest the promotion in conservative circles of the scheme to change California’s vote in the Electoral College from winner-take-all — as in every other major state in America — to apportionment by congressional district.
Frankly, there is no way such an initiative will pass in California, whenever the election is held. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has already stated that it’s a “loser’s mentality” idea.
The “sophisticated” rationale for it is that it will drain Democratic money. But the fact is that Republican fundraising is already way down, on every level — presidential, senatorial, and congressional. Much more likely is that this scheme drains Republican money. To the extent that anyone of any sophistication is convinced, note the word, to contribute to the effort.
I’ll have a lot more on this deal later. It’s fairly amusing.
** NEW RECORD OIL PRICE. Crude oil hit two new price records today: Highest ever intraday trading price and highest ever closing price. After climbing to $93.80 per barrel during the day, crude oil closed the day at $93.53 per barrel.
The price of oil has gone up over one-third since August.
Today’s new record was driven by the continuing geopolitical crises and the decision of the Mexican state oil company, Pemex, to shut down one-fifth of its production with a major tropical storm hitting the Gulf of Mexico.
The former New Hampshire governor is an anti-tax stalwart. In debate prep during the Bush campaigns of 2000 and 2004, he played Al Gore and John Kerry.
** SCHWARZENEGGER MISSES CLIMATE CHANGE MEETING IN PORTUGAL BUT DELIVERS VIDEO MESSAGE. Due to the ongoing Southern California fires crisis, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger missed today’s International Carbon Action Partnership summit in Lisbon, Portugal. But he did deliver a video message in absentia, and sent California Environmental Protection Secretary Linda Adams and Air Resources Board Chair Mary Nichols to represent the state.
“It is exciting for California to be a part of the International Carbon Action Partnership,” said Schwarzenegger in his message. “This groundbreaking partnership is a historic step in the worldwide battle against climate change. In addition to regulations to reduce greenhouse gases, I firmly believe a global market for greenhouse gases will allow us to protect the environment while growing the economy. Last year in California, we took decisive action when I signed our landmark Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006. Today, 26 American states are working toward similar plans or they are developing them.
“This first of its kind partnership will provide more incentives for clean-tech investment and economic growth while not letting polluters off the hook. And it will help renew the health of our planet. I would like to thank Governors Eliot Spitzer of New York and Jon Corzine of New Jersey, Premier Gordon Campbell from British Columbia and Portugal Prime Minister José Sócrates for their strong partnership and great leadership in the fight against global warming.”
The purpose of ICAP is to provide an international forum for governments to share their experiences on how best to design greenhouse gas trading mechanisms under hard emissions caps. ICAP signatories include the US and Canadian members of the Western Climate Initiative, created by Schwarzenegger, the Northeastern US states in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, European Union members including Britain, Germany, and Portugal, and the European Commission.
Among those in attendance are Prime Minister and EU Council President José Sócrates of Portugal; European Commission President José Manuel Barroso; Governor Jon Corzine of New Jersey; Governor Eliot Spitzer of New York; Premier Gordon Campbell of British Columbia; Minister Sigmar Gabriel of Germany; UK Secretary of State for Business, Rt. Hon. John Hutton; and Norway’s Finance Minister Kristin Halvorsen.
He was joking, of course, says Schwarzenegger press secretary Aaron McLear. Schwarzenegger’s staff is not infrequently abashed by some of the governator’s comments. I say roll it, as it were. Actually, that should read, roll with it.
In other pronunciamentos, Schwarzenegger listed former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who left office in June, as one of the greatest leaders in history, alongside former South African President Nelson Mandela, former Presidents John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan and former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev.
Asked if he would include President Bush on the list, Schwarzenegger said: “I would say that I was … very fond of his father. I worked for President Bush Sr., and he was a great man.”
“I think his son does some great things and there are some other things I don’t agree with.”
Needless to say. NWN will be reporting on that a great deal more this week.
** ANOTHER NEW OIL RECORD. Crude oil broke the $93 per barrel mark in trading early today before falling back to $92+. It’s all on account of the continued global insecurity much reported on and discussed here at NWN.
On the Democratic side, Clinton and Obama are in a statistical tie, with 29% and 27%, respectively. John Edwards, who has staked his candidacy on winning Iowa, is third with 20%. Bill Richardson has 7% and Joe Biden has 5%.
On the Republican side, it’s a Romney runaway. The former Massachuestts governor, who has invested millions in uncontested TV ads, has 36%. The distant runner-up has only 13%. That’s a tie between Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee. Fred Thompson is at 11%, and one-time frontrunner John McCain has 6%.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia is fast re-emerging as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil prices went over a record $93 per barrel early today on concern over the geopolitical situation, namely situations in Iraq, Pakistan, and Iran.
Senator Hillary Clinton assures of her electability against
the Republicans while she promises change with stability.
Fred Thompson comes to California for his first campaign swing since he declared on The Tonight Show on September 5th. But the week ahead in presidential politics will focus on efforts by the other Democratic candidates to lasso Hillary Clinton, the tussle for conservative credibility among the Republicans, and geopolitical events that show signs of increasingly spiraling out of control.
On Tuesday, the Democratic presidential field gathers in Philadelphia for its latest debate, to air on MSNBC. The debate, which will actually be, of necessity, something of a debate, in contrast to the forums that they’ve mostly had so far, comes at key moment in the Democratic nomination race. Even though the first contest is not till January, and much can change when voters are actually engaged in the process, Hillary Clinton’s challengers are under great pressure from their supporters and the media to show that they can bring her to earth. Though the former first lady is in a tough fight in Iowa — where she is reportedly shifting nearly a hundred staffers — she leads pretty much everywhere else and has what appears to be a commanding lead in national polls.
Senator Barack Obama, with supporters concerned that the change card may be slipping away, sharpens his critique of the frontrunner on Iraq and Iran.
While those polls mean less than they’re made out to by a press corps that seems largely addicted to the notion of Clinton’s inevitabilty, politics is not a field based on deep security. Quite the contrary. As a result, Obama’s people are having to spend a lot of their time reassuring nervous money people and supporters that it can still happen for the charismatic keynoter of the 2004 Democratic national convention.
Obama is increasingly criticizing Clinton. Something which the third place candidate, John Edwards, has been doing for weeks now. But Edwards is well back, both in the polls and especially in fundraising, and is running the scruffier of the top tier campaigns, so that’s to be expected.
Obama is coming from a different place. He offers the vaunted “politics of hope,” and frequently strikes the “post-partisan” tone of Arnold Schwarzenegger. Without, of course, being the popular incumbent. It’s a strong theme for a general election, especially one in which the Republicans will have no chance but to attack harshly to have any hope of winning. But it’s problematic in a primary campaign against a frontrunner, in the form of Senator Clinton, who has improved as a candidate and, in the process, worn off much of the perceived harsh edge that worked against her in the past. The trick for Obama is criticizing Clinton without losing his above-the-fray appeal.
Former Senator John Edwards, running third, continues his
criticism of Clinton as a status quo Democrat.
For her part, Clinton will try to stay above the fray as much as possible, as she did in the last such encounter. But she will need different tactics than a theatrical laugh and studied avoidance of questions. Those came close to causing a press backlash against her, halted only by her besting Obama the following week in the third quarter fundraising sweepstakes.
And, oh yes, the Iranian crisis. Which escalated last week with bellicose rhetoric from Dick Cheney in Washington and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Tehran. All of which floats the Iranian economy, which is dependent on oil which costs more to produce than that of other oil leaders. But with crude oil at record prices, whatever sanctions the US is imposing, absent help from Europe or Russia — which doesn’t want Iran to go nuclear but does want the US pinned down in the Middle East while it re-emerges on the world stage — are outstripped. Leading to fears from oil traders of a US attack on Iran, with consequences across the region and negative impacts on the oil markets.
Or positive impacts, if one is Russian or a member of OPEC. …
The Eagles’ first single, “How Long,” off their new album Long Road
Out Of Eden is a slice of country rock that sounds like some of their
’70s hits. There are reasons for both those things.
** SOME TELLING EAGLES ELEMENTS. Some intriguing elements about the first all-new studio album from America’s all-time best-selling group in 28 years, discussed Saturday.
Although Universal is distributing Long Road Out Of Eden outside the US, the two-CD album is being released Tuesday by the group’s own Eagles Recording Co. That’s a big continuation in the decline of the record label, the music industry’s traditional equivalent of a movie studio. And in a big continuation of the decline of the brick-and-mortar music store, it will only be available in the US on the group’s web site and in big box discount retailers Walmart and Sam’s Club.
The music store, for most of its life known as the record store, was, for those not familiar with it in its glory days in a slower-paced time a great place to linger in the aisles, checking out what was available, even asking record store employees about music.
But in more recent times, music store employees, usually low-paid, frequently knew little if anything about music. CDs were shipped to stores, stocked slowly or misplaced. Meanwhile, the rise of the online retailer, fast and efficient with encyclopedic, easily searched entries — I’m really talking about Amazon.com — beat the music stores on information, service, and price.
Of course, they also tend to keep people in their categories, or “aisles” as I think of it. Because I’m so busy, Amazon has come to replace the book store and the music store for me. But as a result, I don’t “wander the aisles” as much as I used to. I’m pretty sure I’m not alone in that.
Meanwhile, as the virtual superstore was rising, the discount superstore, epitomized by Walmart, had already arrived. They quickly supplanted the traditional music store chains like Tower and even Virgin for selling music in the real as distinguished from virtual world. They don’t have as much choice as the Tower Records used to, but they did match society’s faster pace. One-stop shopping for busy people.
Online music downloading, pioneered by Apple’s iTunes, also changed the model dramatically. The music business had grown huge with singles being supplanted by albums. But now it’s regressing, with people, especially younger people, increasingly buying individual songs rather than entire albums. Which many artists don’t like, since they want to make larger artistic statements and feel that the song — or today, increasingly, the track — that is not hit material is too important to be lost in the shuffle. Which a pretty valid point of view. Some of my favorite songs were never hits.
The Eagles, being somewhat traditional, want to sell albums and not individual songs, so they’re not on iTunes with the new album. Cutting their own deal wit6h Walmart, they’re getting big promotion from the corporation — Walmart spent $40 million promoting previously recorded material from Garth Brooks in a deal two years ago — and higher royalties than record labels pay.
Of course, Walmart is very controversial with many people for its labor practices and some environmental matters. Now the company is saying it will become carbon balanced. And that it will improve on the labor issues.
Whether that’s true or not, I don’t know. What interests me is the logic behind the Eagles’ business moves, finding ways to navigate the fractured new media environment and segmented economy.
There’s another reason why the somewhat improbable Walmart is a pretty good fit with LA glitterati lib Eagles. (Not that they actually live in LA, of course.)
The first single off the album, played in the video above, is a slice of country-western rock, a song written by J.D. Souther in 1974. While the Eagles epitomized the “Southern California sound,” the group — which first came together as Linda Ronstadt’s back-up band — has always had a strong country music cross-over appeal.
In fact, the group reunited in 1994 after Nashville music executives put together an album of Eagles covers in 1993. It turned out that a lot of country stars were actually big fans of the Eagles.
A collection of country music stars played classic Eagles songs, not all of them the big hits, and the album, Common Threads, turned into a huge hit. Half the songs became hits on country music radio.
So if you’re wondering why that new Eagles single playing above sounds both very country-fied and oddly familiar, wonder no more. Notwithstanding the liberal politics of the group, which will appear at the Country Music Awards, and I’ll say more about the actual album, their sound is quite convivial to many Walmart shoppers.
** FROM THE IRONY FILE: THE RACE FOR THE POLES. First it was Russia, followed by Canada, Norway, Denmark, and the US, racing to stake claims to the Arctic. The melting polar ice cap, courtesy of climate change, is yielding not only the fabled Northwest Passage, but also future access to valuable fossil fuel and mineral resources.
Eight months after the future Law & Order star unsuccessfully prosecuted — and apparently did so half-heartedly, and correctly so — a local county sheriff for selling a confiscated still, then Senator Howard Baker plucked him from obscurity and made him the Republican counsel on the Senate Watergate Committee. And the rest, as they say, was history.
The Eagles release their first studio album in many years on
Tuesday. Here the best-selling American rock group of all time
does an acoustic version of a little-known song called “Hotel California.”
** EAGLES ABOUT TO RELEASE LONG ROAD OUT OF EDEN. The most popular American rock group in history is about to release its first all-new studio album in 28 years. The Eagles, who epitomized the “Southern California sound” of the 1970s with soaring harmonies, smooth guitar work, and frequently incisive and biting lyrics, release Long Road Out of Eden on Tuesday. It’s a two-CD set, the first all-new studio album since The Long Run in September 1979.
That doesn’t mean the Eagles haven’t sold many millions of records since then. Of course, they are CDs now, and increasingly downloads. They put out a variety of albums since then — greatest hits compilations and live albums and solo albums — some of which had new material included. (Though mostly in Don Henley and Glenn Frey’s solo albums.)
And after breaking up in 1980 following a row at a fundraising concert in Santa Monica for then U.S. Senator Alan Cranston, they reunited in 1994 — with the aptly-titled Hell Freezes Over — and have toured on and off ever since, making many hundreds of millions of dollars in the process as one of the biggest live draws on the planet.
In a further sign of the decline of the record label, and of the music store, the group is releasing the album itself. Although there are different arrangements in non-US markets, Long Road Out Of Eden will be available in the US only online, through the group’s web site, and in two big retail outlets, Walmart and Sam’s Club. (Outside the US, the album is being distributed by Universal Music Group.)
Walmart, the nation’s largest retailer, is giving the Eagles album a huge push in their stores. This is the first time it’s had an exclusive on a cultural product from superstar performers.
I’ll have more to say about the Walmart connection, which is controversial, and the album itself, later. I’ve listened to most of it.
This is a huge factor in the run-up of the price of oil. The Iranians say the latest sanctions announced by the US won’t do much to hurt them. What is definitely helping Iran is the record price of oil.
Iranian oil costs more to produce than that of other oil leaders. At one point, the US policy was to drive the price of oil down as the way to hurt the Iranian economy and foment popular rebellion. But the US couldn’t get OPEC or the Russians to play along.
Now oil is skyrocketing, and Iran’s economy is in better shape.
Of course, we’ve heard all this bellicose rhetoric before.
Pelosi’s popularity has dropped greatly among Democrats, upset about the lack of change in Washington. Only 48% of California Democrats now approve of Pelosi’s job performance. Independents are split, with each view in the mid-30s, while Republicans are clearly very opposed.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST ON SOCAL FIRES AT 11:30 AM. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger holds a press conference with state and local law enforcement officials and prosecutors at the Orange County’s sheriff’s command post to discuss price gouging, scams, and arson. The event will be webcast live at 11:30 AM.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia is fast re-emerging as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is quite interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil prices closed at a record $91.86 per barrel Friday on concern over the geopolitical situation, namely situations in Iraq, Pakistan, and Iran. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
Senator Hillary Clinton’s not exactly secret weapon, former
President Bill Clinton, took on some conspiracy-minded hecklers
from the left who claimed 9/11 was “an inside job.”
** TURKS REJECT IRAQI PROPOSAL, BUT SAY NO INVASION BEFORE NOVEMBER 5TH. As anticipated with this morning’s news of a much shorter than scheduled meeting in Ankara between Turkish and Iraq leaders on the question of taking down Kurdish separatist guerillas bases in northern Iraq, Turkey rejected the Iraqi proposal as essentially worthless.
The Iraqis had offered to close down PKK offices and restrict the travel of PKK leaders outside Kurdistan in northern Iraq. Which is completely irrelevant to the crisis. Turkey demanded that the Iraqi round up and hand over 150 to 200 PKK leaders that the Turks say are behind numerous terrorist attacks in their country. The Iraqis, who can’t even secure their own capital, have no ability to do that.
** SCHWARZENEGGER CABINET MEETING SETS SOCAL FIRE EMERGENCY POLICIES. Emerging from a much longer than scheduled meeting of his Cabinet, executive staff, and several other emergency managers, advisors, and state officials, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said in a live webcast many of you watched here that “This week has been the sprint. Now begins the marathon.”
During the meeting, Schwarzenegger and his Cabinet and various outside advisors, helped by his Democratic chief of staff, Susan Kennedy, who has helped the governor work the levers of power this week, and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, came up with a variety of policies to put rebuilding of lives and communities on a fast track.
Among the measures Schwarzenegger is putting in place are an easing of payroll tax deadlines for small businesses hit by the emergency, filing extensions for individuals, the waiving of waiting periods for unemployment insurance, direct assistance in the replacement of key individual documents, expedited cleanup and debris removal, and state and federal loans and guarantees for damaged businesses and the creation of 3000 disaster relief jobs, and a promised crackdown by Insurance Commissioner Poizner on scam artists.
The customary polished performance by the Schwarzenegger team this week was, however, marred at the end of the event when the webcast cut out while Schwarzenegger was being asked about how timely air assets were brought into play.
Some conservative politicians in the hardest hit areas — which coincide with areas having the most laissez faire development patterns and lower than elsewhere investment in firefighting resources — are, perhaps not surprisingly, criticizing the deployment of aircraft early in the crisis.
It’s a complex area, which of course is being simplified, and they may have a point or two. Though some of the criticisms are clearly outlandish, as with the “failure” of Schwarzenegger to accept help from Russia.
Schwarzenegger had his head of the California National Guard delving into specific questions of how to quickly and safely deploy aircraft and air crews when the webcast went down.
Incidentally, the San Diego Chargers will play the Houston Texans Sunday at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, as scheduled. Qualcomm served as the biggest evacuation center during the week.
** NEW RECORD OIL PRICE AT CLOSE. After hitting a new intraday trading record of over $92 per barrel, crude oil closed at a record $91.86 per barrel. That’s nearly a dollar and a half higher than yesterday’s new record close.
This comes amidst grave concern about the geopolitical situation, which we is reported on regularly here, and with the dollar hitting record lows.
** 1:15 PM Update: SCHWARZENEGGER CABINET WEBCAST NOW EXPECTED AROUND 1:30 PM. It seems the governor, his Cabinet, and outside advisors and officials have all had a lot to talk about with regard to the Southern California fire crisis.
** AT EUROPEAN UNION/RUSSIA SUMMIT, PUTIN COMPARES U.S. ANTI-MISSILE SHIELD TO CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS. Harkening back 45 years to the Cuban Missile Crisis, when the Soviet Union placed nuclear missiles 90 miles off the coast of Florida, Russian President Vladimir Putin today likened that situation to the US plan to create an anti-missile shield in Eastern Europe. The impasse over that issue continues, with Russia rejecting a thin US compromise proposal to build the project in Poland and the Czech Republic but not turn it on unless necessary.
At the summit in Portugal, Russia made more progress toward joining the World Trade Organization.
As Friday morning draws to a close, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s special Cabinet session on the Southern California crisis is underway. The live webcast, reported below, is still scheduled for 12:30 PM. A special legislative session to deal with rebuilding is on tap.
** THOMPSON POSTPONES SOCAL PORTION OF SWING. Fred Thompson’s campaign announced this morning that he is cancelling his events next week in Southern due to the fire. He’ll carry on further to the north on Tuesday and Wednesday.
** NEW RECORD OIL PRICE. Crude oil prices hit yet another record in trading early today, rising over $92 per barrel on fresh signs of global insecurity.
** TURKISH CRISIS: A BAD SIGN. Talks in Ankara between Turkish and Iraqi government leaders have broken up after only 90 minutes. They had been scheduled to last for three hours.
The Iraqis hoped to dissuade the Turks from launching a major cross-border incursion into northern Iraq to take out safe haven bases there for Kurdish separatist guerillas who have been launching terrorist attacks inside Turkey.
Meanwhile, Turkish attacks by jet fighter-bombers, helicopter gunships, and artillery on Kurdish separatist targets inside Iraq have continued for several days.
** SCHWARZENEGGER CABINET MEETING ON SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FIRES AND LIVE WEBCAST. With the worst apparently past, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is convening a meeting of his Cabinet, which consists of the heads of the various big state agencies and departments, along with top emergency officials, to go over how to handle the next phase of dealing with the Southern California fires and their aftermaths. State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi will also participate in the meeting.
A few officials in areas where the local response is being criticized, namely San Diego and Orange Counties, are complaining that bureaucratic hangups prevented fast air support from being employed to fight the fires. Chief among them is Republican Congressman Dana Rohrabacher, who complained on Russian television — as you see in the item and link below from yesterday — that Schwarzenegger and federal authorities wouldn’t accept the offer of a massive firefighting aircraft from the Russian government. Rohrabacher, as he explains in the Moscow TV interview linked to below (it’s in English), has advocated for years on behalf of the Ilyushin-76.
Senator Barack Obama, talking to supporters Monday as he filed
for the New Hampshire primary, still trails Hillary Clinton in the
Democratic presidential race.
On the Republican side, it’s Giuliani 25%, Mitt Romney 13%, John McCain 12%, and Fred Thompson 12%. Giuliani’s down 10 points from the August Field Poll, though he showed no such slippage in last week’s San Jose State Poll.
Thompson, as revealed on NWN, has a big California trip next week for the first time since declaring his candidacy here last month on The Tonight Show.
On the Democratic side, it’s Clinton 45%, Obama 20%, and Edwards 11%.
Bear in mind that all these primary numbers can and frequently do change very rapidly in the actual election year.
Clinton and Obama both holds big leads over all the Republicans. It’s Clinton 52%, Giuliani 38%. (Giuliani is the most competitive Republican in California.) Obama 51%, Giuliani 35%. Edwards 46%, Giuliani 40%.
Former Senator and Law & Order star Fred Thompson, shown
here talking about a Mexican border fence, needs to get it going
in the California Republican presidential primary.
** CLIMATE CHANGE REGULATION.The California Air Resources Board yesterday adopted some early action measures previously discussed to cut greenhouse gas emissions. These include requiring aerodynamic improvements on big trucks.
The ARB also adopted standards for qualifying California forests for the burgeoning carbon offsets market. Investing in programs that reduce greenhouse gases is an important path forward. NWN, for example, is carbon balanced. But standards for real offsets have been unclear.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia is fast re-emerging as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is quite interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window. Moscow time is 11 hours ahead of Pacific time.
The Kurdish Regional Government’s security chief discusses
the prospective Turkish military incursion into northern Iraq.
** BIG LEAD FOR HILLARY IN NEW CBS NATIONAL POLL. UNTIL AL GORE IS ADDED TO THE MIX. A new national poll of Democratic voters for CBS News gives Hillary Clinton a commanding lead over Barack Obama for president, 51% to 23%. John Edwards has 13%. But the impact of Al Gore winning the Nobel Peace Prize has apparently had time to sink in.
If Gore is added to the mix, the race is virtually a dead heat, with Clinton holding a narrow 37% to 32% advantage over Gore. Obama trails in that scenario with 16%.
Gore says he’s not running, and I don’t expect him to run. But he hasn’t run this well in previous polls. His favorable rating among all voters is higher than that of any other Democrat, including Clinton and Obama.
Senator Clinton today issued a statement supporting the lastest Bush move against Iran. But she positioned it within the context of additional diplomacy. There has been, incidentally, a report that while Secretary of State Condi Rice called for the new sanctions discussed below, General David Petraeus is reaching out for further negotiations with the Iranians.
** SCHWARZENEGGER AND COMPANY DISCUSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CRISIS AMIDST VERY CHUMMY ATMOSPHERE. Following the tour and events with President George W. Bush, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, running quite late of course, toured the evacuation center this afternoon at Escondido High outside San Diego and delivered his assessment of the Southern California crisis. He was joined by a host of state political leaders, local officials, and union leaders.
It had something of the air of a victory dance. Schwarzenegger, now apparently getting major help from a federal government anxious to erase the stain of Hurricane Katrina, clearly feels the corner has been turned on the crisis, and he thanked the firefighters and the people of the region for their efforts and praised most of the dignitaries in attendance.
The governor continued his mutural admiration society with Democratic state Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, calling him “my great partner in Sacramento.” Nunez, in a Republican area of the state — the anti-tax San Diego area was hit far harder than LA, though the Malibu fires got the initial media attention — refrained from any sort of I-told-you-so regarding the area’s lower-than-normal firefighting capacity for a California metro region and praised everyone, including Assembly Minority Leader Mike Villines and Senate Minority Leader Dick Ackerman.
Joining in the lovefest was the president of the International Association of Firefighters, Harold Scheitberger. The IAFF is the huge national firefighters union. You may recall that it is very much at odds with Republican presidential frontrunner Rudy Giuliani. But the firefighters union chief, who came out from Washington at the beginning of the week to observe the crisis, had nothing but praise for Schwarzenegger.
“This governor has great leadership,” said the union chief, who went on to say that California under Schwarzenegger has improved its emergency response capability tremendously over the past four years.
Some of you will see the irony in this state of affairs, since the California firefighters union was at Schwarzenegger’s throat in his ill-fated “Year of Reform” ballot measures campaign of 2005. Yet California Professional Firefighters union president Lou Paulson, who went out on a big limb for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides in 2006, was also on hand at Escondido High.
In 2005, Schwarzenegger’s very high-priced political team didn’t bother to develop their own public pension reform initiative for the rookie politician, instead allowing it to be outsourced to then Republican Assemblyman Keith Richman. Who screwed up, devising an initiative that would have removed benefits from the survivors of firefighters and cops killed in the line of duty.
After going through an agonizing period of denial, egged on by conservatives then around him, Schwarzenegger finally acceded to the obvious and dropped his support of the initiative.
** ROHRABACHER COMPLAINS THAT RUSSIAN HELP NOT ACCEPTED FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FIRES. Orange County/LA beach area Congressman Dana Rohrabacher, a conservative Republican and one-time junior Reagan speechwriter known as one of the biggest surfing aficionadoes in the House, complains that a massive Russian aircraft was not accepted to fight the Southern California wildfires.
Rohrabacher told the Russia Today news channel that he wanted the Ilyushin-76 brought over to help handle the crisis. But American officials, including Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, reportedly would not go along with the scheme.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST AT 1:30 PM FROM ESCONDIDO HIGH SCHOOL EVACUATION CENTER. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will conduct a live briefing on the Southern California fire situation at 1:30 PM today from the evacuation center at Escondido High School outside San Diego. The event will be webcast via this live link.
Schwarzenegger toured the fire zone this morning with President Bush in the Marine One helicopter. They made an impromptu stop at a center helping fire victims, then did a scheduled neighborhood tour. With things running over 90 minutes behind the original schedule, Bush made a brief statement of support on national TV with Schwarzenegger and U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein by his side.
Bush praised Schwarzenegger’s crisis leadership, saying California has “a governor who’s not afraid to charge up any hill.” Bush had the commander of US Northern Command on hand as a sign of further support, pledged prompt federal financial assistance, and urged viewers who need help to call 1-800-621-FEMA. He took no questions from the few reporters who were allowed in. (The event was pooled.) Bush, Schwarzenegger, and Feinstein then went to a lunch meeting with first responders.
** NEW OIL PRICE CLOSING RECORD. Crude oil trading just closed today at a record $90.50 per barrel. According to the Wall Street Journal, OPEC won’t announce new ouput quotas when it meets next month.
** NEW INTRADAY TRADING OIL PRICE RECORD. Crude oil prices have climbed to record levels again, over $90 per barrel, in intraday trading. For largely geopolitical reasons outlined in items below, and the video above.
** IOWA DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUSES SET TO GO ON JANUARY 3RD. As predicted here, Iowa’s Democrats appear ready to follow Iowa Republicans’ lead in moving up their presidential caucuses from January 14th to January 3rd.
The Iowa state central committee will vote on the change, proposed by the state party chairman, this coming Sunday. January 3rd is a Thursday. Iowa has in the past been on a Monday.
Needless to say, this will be the earliest presidential nomination contest in history. In 1984, when I did first-in-the-nation Iowa for Gary Hart, the caucuses were on February 20th.
This will create a conundrum for New Hampshire, which has been eight days after Iowa, allowing time for those who stumble in the Hawkeye State to recover and those who do well to gather momentum. New Hampshire could go on January 8th. But that only allows five days for focused campaigning on New Hampshire. New Hampshire has held out the prospect of moving the primary to December.
Whatever happens, Iowa’s move is going to place peak presidential campaigning right in the middle of the holiday season. Which is more than slightly nuts.
** 11:10 AM UPDATE: President George W. Bush and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger are still touring Southern California fire damage in the helicopter designated Marine One. Needless to say, the scheduled 10:30 AM press conference is delayed.
The two made an impromptu stop to visit victims of the fires. Their press conference is now rescheduled to 11:40 AM.
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said that he would stop the PKK from making its terrorist attacks inside Turkey. But he has no real ability to do that in largely autonomous Kurdish-dominated northern Iraq. Meanwhile, the Kurdish Regional Government says that there are no PKK enclaves that it is aware of.
Obviously that’s not going to work.
** BUSH VISITS THE SAN DIEGO AREA THIS MORNING. President George W. Bush arrives this morning for a four-hour visit to the San Diego area. He will take an aerial tour on Marine One with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, do a walking tour of a neighborhood, get a briefing from Schwarzenegger and firefighting officials, deliver a public statement on the crisis, have lunch with first responders, and depart on Air Force One.
The Bush public statement, which will come in a press conference with Schwarzenegger and other leaders, is scheduled for 10:30 AM. It will, of course, be carried live on all the cable news nets.
After Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans, President Bush did a flyover in his jet to inspect the destruction, but did not land.
You’ll notice that NWN hasn’t reported any number higher than 500,000. I decided to invoke my common sense rule. Does it feel to me like a million people have evacuated? Of course not.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia is fast re-emerging as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is quite interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window. Moscow time is 11 hours ahead of Pacific time.
In one of the biggest jihadist terrorist acts, Chechen rebels seized
a Moscow theater, and nearly 1000 hostages, five years ago. Russian
special forces moved in and took back the theater, knocking out
everyone inside with a secret gas. But the operation went horribly wrong.
** BUSH IN CALIFORNIA TOMORROW. President George W. Bush will be in the San Diego area tomorrow for a tour and statement on his plan to provide federal aid for the massive crisis of the Southern California fires.
For security and political purposes, I’ll be very vague about his schedule, which is provided to NWN for planning purposes only. Bush flies into the San Diego area tomorrow on Air Force One. During the several hours in which he is in the area, he will conduct an aerial tour of the fire damage and ongoing fires with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and others. He will then tour a neighborhood impacted by one of the many fires. He will receive a briefing from the governor, fire officials and others on the state of the crisis. He will make a public statement, which will of course be telecast live. He will have lunch with first responders. He will proceed by motorcade to Air Force One and depart California. More specifics on his schedule will be available tomorrow morning on NWN.
** 7:10 PM UPDATE: THE SCHWARZENEGGER FIRE TOUR. After a very busy morning, as reported earlier today, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger had, if anything, an even busier afternoon and earlier evening. Running close to an hour behind schedule, he just wrapped his fourth of four stops this afternoon around Southern California, this coming in Spring Valley, an unincorporated community in eastern San Diego County, which produced, among other things, a guy named Reggie Bush.
In the just completed webcast, which unfortunately I’m having trouble bringing to you via the usual NWN live link due to strains on the Schwarzenegger web site, Schwarzenegger appeared with a panoply of San Diego area pols, almost all conservative Republicans. Making it clear that they will be relying heavily on the state and federal governments to rebuild after heavy fire damage, they all praised Schwarzenegger greatly for his continuous action on the firefighting front.
Schwarzenegger, who had two stops this afternoon in Orange County and two in San Diego County, toured the fire scenes, encouraged the firefighters and people at the local evacuation centers, and got briefings in each locale before holding events to encourage residents — many of them evacuees from the various fires — and talk with the local press.
Schwarzenegger looked a little tired, but was upbeat, saying that with unusually high winds beginning to die down that state and federal air assets can come more prominently into play.
** TURKISH CRISIS: RICE TO ANKARA.US Secretary of State Condi Rice plans to go to Turkey next week to stave off a major military incursion against Kurdish guerillas using northern Iraq as a safe haven. She must be assuming that there won’t be any intervening provocations to trigger a major move by the Turkish forces poised along the border of Iraq. That may not be the safest of her assumptions.
** SOCAL FIRES AT A GLANCE. As expected, the unusually high-speed Santa Ana winds are beginning to diminish as Wednesday comes to a close. This means the firefighting aircraft, sidelined in large measure for the past few days, can do their work. Temperatures are also expected to drop by Thursday, which also aids the effort.
The LA County fires are mostly contained, and attention is focusing on the fires to the south. Some better news in the San Diego area, where some of the evacuees have been allowed to return to their homes.
At least two of the fires appear to have been deliberately set.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has continued to crisscross Southern California throughout the day by helicopter. At each stop, he’s gotten briefings from the field leaders, visited with the firefighters up and down the line, and held local press conferences.
I’m having trouble providing the usual NWN live link to webcasts of Schwarzenegger’s activities today because of very heavy traffic on the governor’s web site.
** BROWN TO PURSUE SOCAL FIRES PROFITEERING, ARSON. Former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown is setting up an operation of his California Department of Justice to act against possible attempts to profiteer off of the unfolding tragedy of the Southern California fires. He’s also looking into possible arson in the setting of one or more the fires.
“It is illegal to exploit the state of emergency for personal gain,” said Brown, who points out that California’s anti-price gouging statute became immediately effective after Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger declared the state of emergency on October 21st. Brown’s warning is to those who might try to illegally raise prices for goods, services, or hotels.
California law prohibits charging a price that exceeds by more than 10% the price of an item before the declaration of emergency. The law applies to those who sell food, emergency supplies, medical supplies, building materials, gasoline, repair or reconstruction services, emergency cleanup services, transportation, freight and storage services, and housing and hotel accommodations. If anyone thinks they’ve been taken of advantage of, click on this link. Or call (800) 952-5225.
** BUSH DECLARES DISASTER IN CALIFORNIA, SCHWARZENEGGER ANNOUNCES LOCAL ASSISTANCE CENTERS. President George W. Bush this morning accepted Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s recommendation that he declare a state of disaster in Southern California. This declaration will allow direct federal assistance to fire victims in Southern California, with regard to housing, income, and aid to affected businesses. Schwarzenegger, in a late morning event in Los Alamitos that is still underway, announced that five local assistance centers will open around Southern California tomorrow and Friday.
Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi referred to his “30 years of experience” as a public official dealing with fires and other disasters in California, then went on to praise Schwarzenegger. “This particular effort is unprecedented,” said Garamendi, a once and possibly future Democratic gubernatorial candidate. “It took an incredibly effective and efficient organization in place. Your administration … it’s been done. It’s an extraordinary improvement. It’s worked. It really has worked. Governor, congratulations to you. A job very very well done by you and all of your administration.”
Garamendi was joined by a panoply of local officials from both parties in Southern California, including the Orange County fire chief who had criticized a lack of air support early on in his area, but specifically praised Schwarzenegger for his leadership.
This is not the big cross-border military incursion authorized by last week’s overwhelming vote of the Turkish parliament. But that may be coming. Especially since winter is also coming.
“We cannot wait forever,” Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned in London after meeting with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on the crisis. “The military dimension will come into play” if Britain and the US are unable to get the Iraqi government to rein in the Kurdish guerillas, whose terrorist attacks inside Turkey have inflamed the country.
** FIVE YEARS SINCE MOSCOW’S HUGE TERRORIST INCIDENT. An armed group of 40 Chechen terrorists broke into a Moscow music theater the night of October 23, 2002. About 1,000 people including women and children were taken hostage in the middle of the show, the Russian musical Nord Ost. The majority of the hostages were rescued from the mined building. All the terrorists were killed.
After a siege, Russian special forces units used a secret gas on the building, then stormed it. The gas knocked out most everyone in the theater, and the terrorists were unable to set off their explosive charges to kill their hostages. At first it seemed a major triumph. But 130 of the rescued hostages died, almost all in the aftermath of the operation.
The gas sickened many of them. No antidotes were made available on the scene. And doctors in the hospitals to which the rescued hostages were taken, prepared for wounds from gunshots and explosions, were given no information on how to treat the effects of the gas.
The Russian penchant for secrecy led to a tremendous tragedy that still marks memories of the attack.
** LEADS FOR HILLARY, RUDY, AND HILLARY.Big leads for Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani in a new national poll by the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News Service. Clinton and Giuliani both lead by ratios of at least two to one over their closest rivals, Barack Obama and Fred Thompson, respectively.
Clinton also holds signficant leads over all Republican candidates. Obama also leads all Republicans, though his lead over Giuliani is only three points.
Clinton has a serious problem with polarization — barely more voters view her favorably than unfavorably, 48% to 44% — and independents. But her husband, former President Bill Clinton, is her ace in the hole with independents, a majority of whom not only favor him, but want to see him back in the White House with some major role, which of course he would have with his wife’s presidency.
Incidentally, in case we haven’t guessed this yet, what American voters really want is to return Bill Clinton to the presidency. Which they can’t do, due to term limits.
Giuliani has a problem in his party with social conservatives. But he is advantaged by the failure of any of the more traditionally conservative candidates in the field to mount a strong appeal to those voters. And so Giuliani actually leads among conservative Republican primary voters, due to his image of strength and emphasis on prosecuting the Terror War and combativeness with Hillary. That last part is my analysis.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia is fast re-emerging as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is quite interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window. Moscow time is 11 hours ahead of Pacific time.
The Southern California fires have stunned many with their scope
and ferocity. The federal response to them stands in stark contrast
to the plight of New Orleans with Hurricane Katrina.
After the debacle of Hurricane Katrina, the Bush Administration seems to have learned some lessons. The administration has quickly agreed to all the requests so far from Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, though he has a new one: Designate the fire-scarred counties of Southern California a disaster area, allowing direct federal aid to flow to fire victims.
The head of the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) is on the ground in San Diego. US Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff, who couldn’t be nominated to succeed Alberto Gonzales as US attorney general after his slow response to the near destruction of New Orleans, undertook an aerial survey via Blackhawk helicopter of the fires in the San Diego area with Schwarzenegger and Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez yesterday afternoon. And President Bush himself is set to arrive in California on Thursday.
It’s a far cry from Hurricane Katrina, when it took days for FEMA and other authorities to get supplies to survivors huddled in the Superdome, the glittery site of Super Bowls past. Even today, much of New Orleans is nothing short of a wreck.
California, of course, is different. Malibu is home to movie stars. San Diego is one of the nation’s leading Navy towns. The Golden State carries serious national clout. And in Schwarzenegger, the state has a global icon as governor who can rustle up media attention by stepping outside his front door and clearing his throat. Only a crazy administration would ignore all that.
The former action movie superstar has been a whirlwind of activity in this crisis. Says Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez: “This governor has been on this. All over, from Day One.”
As well he might, since this is shaping up as the biggest California disaster since the San Francisco earthquake of 1906, not to mention the biggest crisis of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s governorship.
Schwarzenegger, in San Diego starting out in the morning, appeared briefly via satellite at yesterday’s annual California Women’s Conference in Long Beach. He had been slated for a dual appearance with his friend, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, to discuss climate change and leadership. But Schwarzenegger is busy with the massive Southern California fires, and in the end, appeared for only a few minutes discussing the mega-crisis.
It is, said the former action movie superstar, “the perfect storm fire,” citing the confluence of drought conditions, unusual temperatures, and unusually high winds driving a series of fires around the region.
The extreme heat and wind conditions, which are thwarting firefighting efforts, are expected to continue through tonight.
After Schwarzenegger, wearing a jacket standing in front of a fire truck with firefighters preparing to go into action, signed off, the moderator of the would-have-been discussion between the two leaders, New York Times columnist Tom Friedman, noted that at the start of his career as a foreign correspondent he began every day “watching the BBC World Service, I suspect I’ll end it beginning every day watching the weather channel.” Blair, who was clearly a favorite of the 14,000 people attending the conference, noted the connection, making the point that Britain has cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 20% so far while growing the economy by 25%.
Schwarzenegger spent much of Monday night at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, home of the San Diego Chargers (now off practicing in Arizona, far away from the unhealthy air), a key quartering area for fire evacuees. At Schwarzenegger’s request, President Bush declared a state of emergency in California. This freed up aid from the Federal Emergency Management Administration and the Department of Defense. Schwarzenegger on Monday secured six special firefighting planes from the Pentagon through a direct appeal to Defense Secretary Bob Gates. He also called up 1500 members of the California National Guard.
Schwarzenegger is directing Cal Fire (Dept. of Forestry and Fire Protection), Office of Emergency Services (OES), and National Guard resources in the effort. In addition to the 1500 National Guard personnel, there are some 1800 firefighting personnel from Cal Fire and OES. He’s also directed the state Dept. of Corrections to deploy inmate firefighters and supervisory staff. More than 2300 state prisoners and nearly 200 custody staff have joined the firefighting ranks. Over a thousand emergency vehicles and more than a dozen state aircraft are also engaged, along with health and social service assistance personnel.
It’s an impressive performance. Whether it all is enough, or whether the state might have been better prepared for the firestorm of a century, is something we’ll know later.
Also outstanding are deeper questions that extend well beyond what looks like mostly good crisis management by Schwarzenegger and various other state and local officials.
For this is hardly the first time that major fires have swept the Southland. It’s merely the worst. Why do these fires keep recurring? What is it about patterns of development, about failure to control the fuel stock for conflagration? Have some of these localities failed to invest in an adequate firefighting resource, making them too dependent on the state to bail them out? These are perennial issues. They are exacerbated now by additional issues. What about planning ahead for a still more challenging era of altered climate and diminished water resources?
There needs to be a serious study of these questions, and probably more, after this present crisis has abated.
President John F. Kennedy tells the nation 45 years ago that the
Soviet Union has secretly placed nuclear missiles in Cuba. This
was the Cuban Missile Crisis, in which the world came to the brink
of nuclear war between America and the late Soviet Union.
President Bush is said to have assured Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan that the US is pushing hard for Iraqi forces to control the Kurdish separatists operating in their territory and that a joint US-Turkish operation may be in the offing. But it’s not clear what Iraq forces can do way up in the mountainous Kurdish sector when they can’t control their own capital of Baghdad. And the offer, if real to have US forces operate with Turkish forces may be a political delaying tactic. Winter conditions will begin descending on the region in a matter of weeks, making full-scale operations difficult. Which the Turks know.
** CALIFORNIA REDISTRICTING REFORM INITIATIVE FILED. A coalition of Common Cause, the LA Chamber of Commerce, and the American Association of Retired People filed an initiative this afternoon with Attorney General Jerry Brown’s office targeted for the November 2008 election. It would create an independent citizens commission to redraw districts for the state Legislature and Board of Equalization. Congressional districts would be exempted. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has threatened a big money campaign against any change in congressional redistricting. The proposal is similar to one that seemed close to passage in the Legislature, but never got there.
** ROMNEY MAKES A GAFFE.Speaking today in South Carolina, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney said this: “Actually, just look at what Osam — uh — Barack Obama, said just yesterday. Barack Obama calling on radicals, jihadists of all different types, to come together in Iraq. That is the battlefield. That is the central place, he said. Come join us under one banner.”
Actually, Senator Barack Obama, who is, of course, one of the two leading Democratic presidential candidates, has not called for all jihadists to come together in Iraq, the central battlefield. That would be Osama bin Laden, in a new audiotape. Whoops.
Asked to comment, Obama said: “I don’t think much about Mitt Romney.”
** SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FIRES: WELCOME TO NON-NEW ORLEANS. After the debacle of Hurricane Katrina, the Bush Administration seems to have learned some lessons.
The administration has quickly agreed to all the requests I’m aware of from Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. The head of the Federal Emergency Management Administration is on the ground in San Diego. US Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff, who couldn’t be nominated to succeed Alberto Gonzales as US attorney general after his slow response to the near destruction of New Orleans, is about to undertake an aerial survey via Blackhawk helicopter of the fires in the San Diego area with Schwarzenegger and Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez. And President Bush himself is set to arrive in California on Thursday.
** QUICK HITS.Turkey has rejected a ceasefire offer by Kurdish separatist guerillas inside northern Iraq as not credible, noting that there’ve been many in the past. Yet it’s agreed to hold off on major military action for a few days while urging the US and Iraqi governments to bring the Kurdish guerillas under control. Which would be a very neat trick to pull off in a few days. … Analysts have differing views on the resignation of Iran’s national security advisor and chief nuclear negotiator over the weekend. Some say it means that Iran is even further committed to a nuclear weapons program while seeming to come under the Russian umbrella. Others that it means Iran thinks it can get a better deal in exchange for its nuclear program. The Russian offer to Iran appears to be one of support in exchange for backing away from nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are only one aspect of the Iranian agenda. … The US space shuttle Discovery successfully lifted off this morning. With Col. Pamela Melroy in command of the space shuttle and Dr. Peggy Whitson in command of the International Space Station, for the first time in history there are two female commanders in space at the same time. … More maneuvering on the growing US/Russia crisis, with Bush administration officials telling the Russians that an anti-missile shield in Eastern Europe that Russia objects to could be built but not turned on while Bush himself says that the shield program is key to Europe’s defense. Russia doesn’t want it built.
** 11:55 AM UPDATE: Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, after leaving the San Diego area, has been on a lengthy tour of the Lake Arrowhead area. His live cable news appearance, promoed by the nets for the past hour, is expected shortly.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE ON CABLE NEWS ON THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FIRES FROM LAKE ARROWHEAD, SET FOR SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER 11 AM PACIFIC TIME.
** SCHWARZENEGGER AND BLAIR. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, in San Diego earlier this morning, appeared briefly via
