In one of the biggest jihadist terrorist acts, Chechen rebels seized
a Moscow theater, and nearly 1000 hostages, five years ago. Russian
special forces moved in and took back the theater, knocking out
everyone inside with a secret gas. But the operation went horribly wrong.
** BUSH IN CALIFORNIA TOMORROW. President George W. Bush will be in the San Diego area tomorrow for a tour and statement on his plan to provide federal aid for the massive crisis of the Southern California fires.
For security and political purposes, I’ll be very vague about his schedule, which is provided to NWN for planning purposes only. Bush flies into the San Diego area tomorrow on Air Force One. During the several hours in which he is in the area, he will conduct an aerial tour of the fire damage and ongoing fires with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and others. He will then tour a neighborhood impacted by one of the many fires. He will receive a briefing from the governor, fire officials and others on the state of the crisis. He will make a public statement, which will of course be telecast live. He will have lunch with first responders. He will proceed by motorcade to Air Force One and depart California. More specifics on his schedule will be available tomorrow morning on NWN.
** 7:10 PM UPDATE: THE SCHWARZENEGGER FIRE TOUR. After a very busy morning, as reported earlier today, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger had, if anything, an even busier afternoon and earlier evening. Running close to an hour behind schedule, he just wrapped his fourth of four stops this afternoon around Southern California, this coming in Spring Valley, an unincorporated community in eastern San Diego County, which produced, among other things, a guy named Reggie Bush.
In the just completed webcast, which unfortunately I’m having trouble bringing to you via the usual NWN live link due to strains on the Schwarzenegger web site, Schwarzenegger appeared with a panoply of San Diego area pols, almost all conservative Republicans. Making it clear that they will be relying heavily on the state and federal governments to rebuild after heavy fire damage, they all praised Schwarzenegger greatly for his continuous action on the firefighting front.
Schwarzenegger, who had two stops this afternoon in Orange County and two in San Diego County, toured the fire scenes, encouraged the firefighters and people at the local evacuation centers, and got briefings in each locale before holding events to encourage residents — many of them evacuees from the various fires — and talk with the local press.
Schwarzenegger looked a little tired, but was upbeat, saying that with unusually high winds beginning to die down that state and federal air assets can come more prominently into play.
** TURKISH CRISIS: RICE TO ANKARA. US Secretary of State Condi Rice plans to go to Turkey next week to stave off a major military incursion against Kurdish guerillas using northern Iraq as a safe haven. She must be assuming that there won’t be any intervening provocations to trigger a major move by the Turkish forces poised along the border of Iraq. That may not be the safest of her assumptions.
** SOCAL FIRES AT A GLANCE. As expected, the unusually high-speed Santa Ana winds are beginning to diminish as Wednesday comes to a close. This means the firefighting aircraft, sidelined in large measure for the past few days, can do their work. Temperatures are also expected to drop by Thursday, which also aids the effort.
The LA County fires are mostly contained, and attention is focusing on the fires to the south. Some better news in the San Diego area, where some of the evacuees have been allowed to return to their homes.
At least two of the fires appear to have been deliberately set.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has continued to crisscross Southern California throughout the day by helicopter. At each stop, he’s gotten briefings from the field leaders, visited with the firefighters up and down the line, and held local press conferences.
I’m having trouble providing the usual NWN live link to webcasts of Schwarzenegger’s activities today because of very heavy traffic on the governor’s web site.
** BROWN TO PURSUE SOCAL FIRES PROFITEERING, ARSON. Former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown is setting up an operation of his California Department of Justice to act against possible attempts to profiteer off of the unfolding tragedy of the Southern California fires. He’s also looking into possible arson in the setting of one or more the fires.
“It is illegal to exploit the state of emergency for personal gain,” said Brown, who points out that California’s anti-price gouging statute became immediately effective after Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger declared the state of emergency on October 21st. Brown’s warning is to those who might try to illegally raise prices for goods, services, or hotels.
California law prohibits charging a price that exceeds by more than 10% the price of an item before the declaration of emergency. The law applies to those who sell food, emergency supplies, medical supplies, building materials, gasoline, repair or reconstruction services, emergency cleanup services, transportation, freight and storage services, and housing and hotel accommodations. If anyone thinks they’ve been taken of advantage of, click on this link. Or call (800) 952-5225.
** BUSH DECLARES DISASTER IN CALIFORNIA, SCHWARZENEGGER ANNOUNCES LOCAL ASSISTANCE CENTERS. President George W. Bush this morning accepted Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s recommendation that he declare a state of disaster in Southern California. This declaration will allow direct federal assistance to fire victims in Southern California, with regard to housing, income, and aid to affected businesses. Schwarzenegger, in a late morning event in Los Alamitos that is still underway, announced that five local assistance centers will open around Southern California tomorrow and Friday.
Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi referred to his “30 years of experience” as a public official dealing with fires and other disasters in California, then went on to praise Schwarzenegger. “This particular effort is unprecedented,” said Garamendi, a once and possibly future Democratic gubernatorial candidate. “It took an incredibly effective and efficient organization in place. Your administration … it’s been done. It’s an extraordinary improvement. It’s worked. It really has worked. Governor, congratulations to you. A job very very well done by you and all of your administration.”
Garamendi was joined by a panoply of local officials from both parties in Southern California, including the Orange County fire chief who had criticized a lack of air support early on in his area, but specifically praised Schwarzenegger for his leadership.
** BUSH DOWN IN CALIFORNIA POLL. On the eve of his arrival in California, President George W. Bush finds himself at a continuing low ebb of voter approval in the Field Poll. Only 27% of California voters approve of his job performance. That’s the same it’s been all year. 70% of California voters are against the president’s policies in Iraq.
** TURKISH CRISIS WORSENS. Turkish forces have just launched strikes against Kurdish guerilla enclaves inside northern Iraq using artillery, helicopter gunships, and jet fighters. In addition, some 300 Turkish troops have been inside Iraq conducting raids.
This is not the big cross-border military incursion authorized by last week’s overwhelming vote of the Turkish parliament. But that may be coming. Especially since winter is also coming.
“We cannot wait forever,” Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned in London after meeting with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on the crisis. “The military dimension will come into play” if Britain and the US are unable to get the Iraqi government to rein in the Kurdish guerillas, whose terrorist attacks inside Turkey have inflamed the country.
** FIVE YEARS SINCE MOSCOW’S HUGE TERRORIST INCIDENT. An armed group of 40 Chechen terrorists broke into a Moscow music theater the night of October 23, 2002. About 1,000 people including women and children were taken hostage in the middle of the show, the Russian musical Nord Ost. The majority of the hostages were rescued from the mined building. All the terrorists were killed.
After a siege, Russian special forces units used a secret gas on the building, then stormed it. The gas knocked out most everyone in the theater, and the terrorists were unable to set off their explosive charges to kill their hostages. At first it seemed a major triumph. But 130 of the rescued hostages died, almost all in the aftermath of the operation.
The gas sickened many of them. No antidotes were made available on the scene. And doctors in the hospitals to which the rescued hostages were taken, prepared for wounds from gunshots and explosions, were given no information on how to treat the effects of the gas.
The Russian penchant for secrecy led to a tremendous tragedy that still marks memories of the attack.
** LEADS FOR HILLARY, RUDY, AND HILLARY. Big leads for Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani in a new national poll by the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News Service. Clinton and Giuliani both lead by ratios of at least two to one over their closest rivals, Barack Obama and Fred Thompson, respectively.
Clinton also holds signficant leads over all Republican candidates. Obama also leads all Republicans, though his lead over Giuliani is only three points.
Clinton has a serious problem with polarization — barely more voters view her favorably than unfavorably, 48% to 44% — and independents. But her husband, former President Bill Clinton, is her ace in the hole with independents, a majority of whom not only favor him, but want to see him back in the White House with some major role, which of course he would have with his wife’s presidency.
Incidentally, in case we haven’t guessed this yet, what American voters really want is to return Bill Clinton to the presidency. Which they can’t do, due to term limits.
Giuliani has a problem in his party with social conservatives. But he is advantaged by the failure of any of the more traditionally conservative candidates in the field to mount a strong appeal to those voters. And so Giuliani actually leads among conservative Republican primary voters, due to his image of strength and emphasis on prosecuting the Terror War and combativeness with Hillary. That last part is my analysis.
** SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FIRE UPDATES. Click here for the locations of and updates on the burgeoning fires of Southern California.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia is fast re-emerging as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is quite interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window. Moscow time is 11 hours ahead of Pacific time.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil prices are in the $86 to $88 per barrel range on concern over situations in Iraq and Iran.
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64 Comments
Jonas Blane:The video is very sad. I’m surprised Russian TV is so open about the failure.
Oct 24, 2007 - 9:56 am Jonas Blane:The video is very sad. I’m surprised Russian TV is so open about the failure.
Oct 24, 2007 - 9:56 am Ann:Woo-hoo, Hillary! She’s looking good.
Oct 24, 2007 - 10:07 am Bill Bradley:Well, she’s definitely the frontrunner.
Oct 24, 2007 - 10:23 am Bill Bradley:I was struck by that, too.
>Jonas Blane :
Oct 24, 2007 - 10:24 am Bill Bradley:The video is very sad. I’m surprised Russian TV is so open about the failure.
Oct 24, 2007 09:56 AM
I was struck by that, too.
>Jonas Blane :
Oct 24, 2007 - 10:24 am Capitol Boy:The video is very sad. I’m surprised Russian TV is so open about the failure.
Oct 24, 2007 09:56 AM
As long as the people who like her vote for her, Hillary can win.
Oct 24, 2007 - 10:35 am Len:Re Turkey and Kurds. What else can go wrong in Iraq?
Oct 24, 2007 - 10:49 am Bill Bradley:Incidentally, NWN passed 42,000 comments sometime in the past week.
Oct 24, 2007 - 10:53 am Brasky:From that LA Times poll:
“Clinton appears to be the presumptive frontrunner in the Democratic primary, according to the results of the poll. She has managed to get the support of most of the demographic groups, making big inroads into groups that were aligned with Obama. The expectations are very high for the NY Senator because of her commanding lead in national polls. However, in early primaries like Iowa and New Hampshire her lead shrinks. But, if she doesn’t do as well as the media or pundits perceive she should in the early primaries and caucus, the media around her will go very negative endorsing people’s views that she is too polarizing or that she cannot win a general election.”
I agree.
Oct 24, 2007 - 11:02 am Brasky:Bill Richardson just sent me the oddest poll results showing he is the LEAST HATED presidential candidate. I kid you not. It’s a Zogby Poll from last week.
I can’t imagine the numbers mean much. First, hatred is better found in focus groups than blind polling. Second, I can’t imagine most people even know Brownback is a candidate, let alone willing to place him THIRD in terms of most unliked candidates.
Still, it’s amusing.
Whom would you NEVER vote for President of the U.S.?
Oct 24, 2007 - 11:39 am wilbur:Clinton (D) 50%
Kucinich (D) 49%
Gravel (D) 47%
Paul (D) 47%
Brownback (R) 47%
Tancredo (R) 46%
McCain (R) 45%
Hunter (R) 44%
Giuliani (R) 43%
Romney (R) 42%
Edwards (D) 42%
Thompson (R) 41%
Dodd (D) 41%
Biden (D) 40%
Obama (D) 37%
Huckabee (R) 35%
Richardson (D) 34%
Not sure 4%
I don’t trust any poll which omits Stephen Colbert. This is a conspiracy between the Liberal MSM and the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy!
If 50% won’t vote for Hillary and 47% won’t vote for Giuliani, does that mean only 7% will vote for a major party candidate next year? Aren’t these things pretty meaningless until respondents are presented with a concrete choice between two evils?
Oct 24, 2007 - 11:47 am Bill Bradley:That’s a Zogby online poll, not a telephone poll. I don’t consider those valid, as you know, which is why I didn’t mention it even though I subscribe to Zogby.
>Brasky :
Oct 24, 2007 - 11:48 am Bill Bradley:Bill Richardson just sent me the oddest poll results showing he is the LEAST HATED presidential candidate. I kid you not. It’s a Zogby Poll from last week.
That’s a Zogby online poll, not a telephone poll. I don’t consider those valid, as you know, which is why I didn’t mention it even though I subscribe to Zogby.
>Brasky :
Oct 24, 2007 - 11:48 am wilbur:Bill Richardson just sent me the oddest poll results showing he is the LEAST HATED presidential candidate. I kid you not. It’s a Zogby Poll from last week.
oops, s/b “43% won’t vote for Giuliani.” but you get the drift…
Oct 24, 2007 - 11:48 am wilbur:Len : What else can go wrong in Iraq?
Dubya could air strike Iran, as he’s apparently itchin’ to do, and thereby render our troops in Iraq sitting ducks. THAT’S what else….
Oct 24, 2007 - 11:52 am Bill Bradley:Elections in America always come down to a choice between two people.
And you can quote me on that …
Oct 24, 2007 - 11:57 am John Addison:>wilbur :
I don’t trust any poll which omits Stephen Colbert. This is a conspiracy between the Liberal MSM and the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy!
If 50% won’t vote for Hillary and 47% won’t vote for Giuliani, does that mean only 7% will vote for a major party candidate next year? Aren’t these things pretty meaningless until respondents are presented with a concrete choice between two evils?
Oct 24, 2007 11:47 AM
Isn’t anyone attacking Arnold Schwarzenegger?
Oct 24, 2007 - 12:00 pm Brasky:“Elections in America always come down to a choice between two people.”
Colbert the Republican and Colbert the Democrat?
Oct 24, 2007 - 12:02 pm Bill Bradley:Exactly.
Oct 24, 2007 - 12:07 pm Brasky:“Isn’t anyone attacking Arnold Schwarzenegger?”
Paul…?
Oct 24, 2007 - 12:07 pm Brasky:“Isn’t anyone attacking Arnold Schwarzenegger?”
Paul…?
Oct 24, 2007 - 12:07 pm wilbur:Arnold’s wearing firefighters for armor this week.
Oct 24, 2007 - 12:20 pm Bill Bradley:A few hyperpartisan bloggers on the left are trying to stir something up against Schwarzenegger.
Trouble is, the people they are citing against him just praised the hell out of him!
Oct 24, 2007 - 12:32 pm paul:Sorry, can’t help you Brasky, nothing bad to say about Schwarzenegger or his Administration today. They’re doing as well as can be expected with an extremely difficult situation, and he’s showing leadership and competence. I couldn’t ask for anything more.
The next big question will come in a few weeks when the fires are under control and policymakers start to look for “lessons to learn”. The big lesson, and politically difficult, is that there are places that are inherently dangerous and should not be home sites. Local governments have not shown any restraint in approving homes there, in locations where the state (CalFire) has fire protection responsibility. Those homes increase state fire protection costs (born by the General Fund) and increase risks to firefighters.
There is broad acknowledgment that this situation needs to change, but historically there hasn’t been the leadership or will to deal with the difficult political tension between local governments planning authority and state fire protection responsibility. It will be interesting to see where the Administration falls on this issue in the coming session.
But right now, it’s all praise for grace under pressure.
Oct 24, 2007 - 12:35 pm Brasky:Yeah for Paul!
Oct 24, 2007 - 12:51 pm Ann:I don’t think that is the same Paul. lol
Oct 24, 2007 - 1:13 pm Kandy Kid:Wild fires, flooding, earthquakes and mudslides are all predictable, location specific disasters. In many places it is not if, but when they will strike. Should we stop rebuilding in these dangerous areas with either our tax funds or insurance payments? Of course we should stop rebuilding.
Does anyone seriously think we are not going to rebuild San Francisco after the next big one? Even Paul Burton knows that is not realistic. Democracy consistently reproduces some pretty irrational results.
Oct 24, 2007 - 2:33 pm Brasky:Boy, things are heating-up on the other thread. Came in here for a breather.
Oct 24, 2007 - 2:33 pm Auros:Garamendi should know whereof he speaks, given that he has a farm out in a dry part of our state; as LtGov he’s involved in a number of enviro and resource maintenance functions; and he also spent several years at the Interior Dep’t under Clinton, where he dealt with a lot of forestry issues.
I’m not sure I like him as Gov candidate, though — like his friend Al Gore, Garamendi comes across as a bit wonky, and apparently voters don’t like their elected officials to seem overly smart. Sigh.
Oct 24, 2007 - 4:00 pm Auros:Garamendi should know whereof he speaks, given that he has a farm out in a dry part of our state; as LtGov he’s involved in a number of enviro and resource maintenance functions; and he also spent several years at the Interior Dep’t under Clinton, where he dealt with a lot of forestry issues.
I’m not sure I like him as Gov candidate, though — like his friend Al Gore, Garamendi comes across as a bit wonky, and apparently voters don’t like their elected officials to seem overly smart. Sigh.
Oct 24, 2007 - 4:00 pm Brasky:Auros — who’s your guy/gal for 2010 then?
Oct 24, 2007 - 4:20 pm Sacramento Solon:Mail was just delivered…my postman thinks that many folks in the SoCal area are probably burning their own homes so they can get out from under the payments. Yes, he stated that.
No, I didn’t challenge him as I only disagree with crazy people on-line!
Oct 24, 2007 - 4:39 pm wilbur:Today al-Maliki declared the PKK a terrorist organization, closed their offices and banned them from operating on Iraqi soil.
That much he can do from his desk. We’ll see what he can do on the ground. Any bets?
Oct 24, 2007 - 4:42 pm Bill Bradley:Most things the Iraqi government does are done from the desk. It’s a long way from the Green Zone in Baghdad up to northern Iraq.
Oct 24, 2007 - 4:44 pm Capitol Boy:A class move by Garamendi. After he made an ass of himself yesterday on cable saying Bush shouldn’t come to California.
Oct 24, 2007 - 5:05 pm Len:What’s with all the Bushies on the other thread today? The whole family logging on from Kennebunkport?
Oct 24, 2007 - 5:29 pm carole w:Sacto,
Oct 24, 2007 - 5:30 pm carole w:The elite citizens and law enforcement folks in San Bernardino county have an arsonist in custody. Hugs and kisses are due to all law enforcement, citizens and AG Brown for working hard to incarcerate the criminal behavior responsible for these fires.
xoxo
Sacto,
Oct 24, 2007 - 5:30 pm Sacramento Solon:The elite citizens and law enforcement folks in San Bernardino county have an arsonist in custody. Hugs and kisses are due to all law enforcement, citizens and AG Brown for working hard to incarcerate the criminal behavior responsible for these fires.
xoxo
Carole W…
Agree fully.
Oct 24, 2007 - 5:41 pm Bill Bradley:Right. I think one suspect was shot. Arson is usually a factor, though it doesn’t seem to be the driver of most of the big fires.
Oct 24, 2007 - 5:50 pm wilbur:They shot and killed another suspected arsonist, too. Those guys aren’t messing around down there…
Oct 24, 2007 - 5:50 pm Bill Bradley:I’m not so sure the folks in Kennebunkport would be so enthusiastic …
Oct 24, 2007 - 5:51 pm Sacramento Solon:>Len :
What’s with all the Bushies on the other thread today? The whole family logging on from Kennebunkport?
Oct 24, 2007 05:29 PM
I understand that arson was a factor. Old guy is a tad under the weather and probably didn’t explain himself well…
Meant to say that the postman believes folks are setting their homes on fire in areas already impacted by the blaze as a way of getting out from under their home payments. And somehow I doubt that’s happening…I know, call me crazy, but I do.
Okay, retreat back to sick bay…
Oct 24, 2007 - 5:57 pm Bill Bradley:Your postman reminds me of a scene in Bulworth where the senator says he’s not sure what having AIDS has to do with burning one’s house down but he gets the insurance lobbyist’s point …
Oct 24, 2007 - 6:01 pm Sacramento Solon:Okay…I guess…let me think about it…however, in my current state, that just did a Linda Ronstadt on me.
By the way, congrats on your Fellowship.
Oct 24, 2007 - 6:07 pm Sacramento Solon:Okay…I guess…let me think about it…however, in my current state, that just did a Linda Ronstadt on me.
By the way, congrats on your Fellowship.
Oct 24, 2007 - 6:07 pm Bill Bradley:Thanks! And sorry to hear you’re under the weather. I don’t feel so hot, at that.
Oct 24, 2007 - 6:15 pm carole w:Sacto,
Oct 24, 2007 - 6:20 pm Sacramento Solon:You need chicken soup, lots of fluids and xo:)
Thanks. I’m battling the same stuff I did my half marathon with…diverticulosis. Today’s day two and it normally gets much better from here.
Sorry that you, too, are under it. Hope it’s nothing too serious.
Oct 24, 2007 - 6:21 pm Sacramento Solon:Carole…
Thank you for your kind thoughts. I’m starting to feel much better. Slept 12 hours last night, have had a couple decent naps today and a some food. Think the worst has passed and I’ll be back to my old grumpy self in the next day or so.
It’s Bill we much concern ourselves with. The poor lad doesn’t get enough rest…and probably could stand a few days off. Yes, we should turn our attention towards him.
Oct 24, 2007 - 6:37 pm carole w:Mr. Bradley,
Oct 24, 2007 - 6:49 pm Bill Bradley:The three s’s are in order…soup, sex and serenity. Not offering, just suggesting.
Er, thanks.
Oct 24, 2007 - 7:14 pm Hap Hazard:It does seem a bit lackadaisical for Rice to head over to Turkey next week - I think I would have been there a couple of days ago.
Oct 24, 2007 - 7:38 pm Hap Hazard:It does seem a bit lackadaisical for Rice to head over to Turkey next week - I think I would have been there a couple of days ago.
Oct 24, 2007 - 7:38 pm Purblind:This just in: Price of oil is up on increased world demand, lead by China the Superpower to end all Superpowers, vs. limited supply, as arbitrarily set by OPEC to maximize profits. Geez.
Oct 24, 2007 - 8:28 pm carole w:I have a little good news, not confirmed …the Slide Fire is 16% contained! We love our Firefighters and Law Enforcement. Bush is very welcome in Southern California. I hope everyone is courteous tomorrow.
Oct 24, 2007 - 9:22 pm Jonas Blane:It looks like Schwarzenegger is getting the fires under control. What’s today’s video?
Oct 25, 2007 - 6:57 am Bill Bradley:You see it.
Oct 25, 2007 - 8:14 am Bill Bradley:The fires are definitely better.
>carole w :
Oct 25, 2007 - 8:15 am Bill Bradley:I have a little good news, not confirmed …the Slide Fire is 16% contained! We love our Firefighters and Law Enforcement. Bush is very welcome in Southern California. I hope everyone is courteous tomorrow.
Oct 24, 2007 09:22 PM
To be fair, she does have her hands full with lots of crises. Other international leaders who have more influence are trying to dissuade the Turks.
>Hap Hazard :
Oct 25, 2007 - 8:16 am Bill Bradley:It does seem a bit lackadaisical for Rice to head over to Turkey next week - I think I would have been there a couple of days ago.
Oct 24, 2007 07:38 PM
To be fair, she does have her hands full with lots of crises. Other international leaders who have more influence are trying to dissuade the Turks.
>Hap Hazard :
Oct 25, 2007 - 8:16 am Auros:It does seem a bit lackadaisical for Rice to head over to Turkey next week - I think I would have been there a couple of days ago.
Oct 24, 2007 07:38 PM
Brasky asked me: “Auros — who’s your guy/gal for 2010 then?”
At the moment, I lean to Westly, if he decides to run again. Jerry Brown would certainly be a formidable candidate, as well, if he wants to have another go.
Oct 25, 2007 - 6:30 pm Capitol Boy:Brown’s the next governor.
Oct 26, 2007 - 3:10 pm