Barack Obama says “Hasta la vista, baby” to the not so good Rev. Wright.
** SCHWARZENEGGER DISCUSSES CALIFORNIA’S FUTURE WITH MICHAEL MILKEN IN LIVE WEBCAST THIS AFTERNOON. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s discusses California’s infrastructure and future with financier Michael Milken in this live webcast at 1 PM. This is part of the Milken Institute’s annual conference on California in LA. Milken, of course, is the famed ’80s junk bond pioneer and corporate raider. Convicted of various irregularities, after being pursued by, among others, then-prosecutor Rudy Giuliani, Milken — who I profiled on the occasion of his 50th birthday in 1996 — has reinvented himself as a philanthropist and futurist. And lest you think he lost his “ill-gotten gains” from the ’80s. He still ended up, best as I could tell over a decade ago, with over a billion dollars.
** POLLS. OBAMA LEADS NATIONALLY, LEADS BIG IN NORTH CAROLINA. In the new Rasmussen tracking polls, Barack Obama holds the lead over Hillary Clinton nationally, 47% to 43%. He has a significant lead in North Carolina, 51% to 37%.
NEW WEST NOTES is still being sorted, as the saying goes, following the tech transition to a new software platform (ironically, the original software platform when NWN was hosted on the LA Weekly server in 2006) late in the day on Monday. So things will be slower here until the site is sorted.
Incidentally, I have been on the road, developing a new video show to be webcast on PJ Media. It features insiders in the presidential campaigns, those of John McCain, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton.
** ISNT IT INTERESTING? How the biggest problems for Barack Obama are proving not to be on the right, which has huge problems with regard to public disdain for them, but the left?Consider. Without Bittergate, prompted by an activist blogger financial supporter of Obama writing on the pro-Obama Huffington Post, Obama was moving up in Pennsylvania. Consider. Without his pastor, who supposedly has devoted his life to promoting black people, Obama is moving up in Indiana and North Carolina, enough to squeeze the remaining life out of the Hillary Clinton candidacy. For fans of irony, this campaign has it all.What Wright, who was clearly something of a crank, even at his best — and it ain’t like I don’t know a lot of folks like that, on both ends of the spectrum — is trying to do is quite obvious. Extend his 15 minutes of fame and make himself the new Al Sharpton. And he has a new book to sell. Color me shocked.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY. Barack Obama is in Indianapolis and Bloomington, Indiana. Hillary Clinton is in South Bend, Portage, Lafayette, and Kokomo, Indiana. Bill Clinton is in Apex, Sanford, Lillington, Dunn, Hope Mills, Lumberton, and Whiteville, North Carolina. John McCain is in Allentown, Pennsylvania.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Barack Obama playing basketball over the weekend with Indianahigh schoolers and a WNBA star.
** TECH TRANSITION CONTINUING. NWN moved to a different software platform this afternoon, which will slow things down here, certainly this afternoon and into Tuesday. Expect glitches.In addition, I’m going to alter the format. Instead of having essentially one rolling edition throughout the day, with items added to the original post from the morning, NWN will have a series of discrete items throughout the day. ** NATIONAL TRACKING POLL: OBAMA LEADS CLINTON, TIES MCCAIN. The busy Rasmussen robots have a brand new national tracking poll. Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton nationally, 49% to 41%. Obama is tied with John McCain, 46-46, while Clinton trails McCain, 47-44. Obama and McCain are both plus-5 in the favorable/unfavorable measure. Clinton is minus-8.34% of Democrats want Clinton to drop out of the race, a number that has increased since before her win last week in Pennsylvania. Only 22% want Obama to drop out.Of course, this is a poll taken last night. Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s controversial appearance today at the National Press Club isn’t factored in. The rest of the media seems virtually unanimous in thinking more of the Wright Stuff, any Wright Stuff, is unalloyed in its badness for Obama. I don’t have a view of it yet, but it does seem apparent that Wright is seizing the main chance to make himself a major political media personality and sell, yes, his now forthcoming book. ** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.Barack Obama is in Wilmington, Wilson, and Chapel Hill, North Carolina.John McCain is in Miami, FloridaHillary Clinton is in Salisbury and Charlotte, North Carolina.Bill Clinton is in Carmel, Indiana.** SCHWARZENEGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has another of his California budget reform meetings this morning, this time with Orange County local elected officials, public safety officers, and business and community leaders.The event is webcast live at 9:45 AM.THE MORNING COLUMNA quieter week in presidential politics than the last, which was highlighted by Hillary Clinton’s expected 9-point win in Pennsylvania. Well, except for Rev. Jeremiah Wright addressing the National Press Club this morning in Washington, that is. We’ll return to that later. And we’ll discuss some major dynamics outside the campaign echo chamber, such as record oil prices, crumbling consumer confidence, and yesterday’s near assassination of our man in Kabul.John McCain had some success last week with his tour of “Forgotten Places” in America. But the novelty of the Republican candidate touring iconic places in the civil rights movement wore off after awhile, and by week’s end he was getting attention by attacking Barack Obama for his association with long-ago Weather Underground wacko Bill Ayers.This week McCain goes on a health care tour, hitting Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado. Those happen, by an odd coincidence, to be key battleground states for the general election.Look for more McCain attacks on Obama this week. He and the Republicans are laying off of Hillary Clinton. Even her preposterous lie about coming under fire when she landed in Bosnia didn’t prompt attacks, though it would surely be devastating to her in the unlikely event she became the Democratic nominee.For now, it’s mostly about Obama, as McCain, the Republican Party and the Clintons all try to take him down.Obama, however, appears to be getting back on track following the long-expected Clinton win in Pennsylvania, the second-oldest state in the country, in a primary closed to the independent voters who favor Obama over Clinton. The Guam caucuses are on Saturday; North Carolina and Indiana hold their primaries next week.The Rasmussen tracking polls, run by Republican Scott Rasmussen, have emerged as valuable campaign tools. The Rasmussen national tracking poll shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton in the same range as before. According to Rasmussen: There is absolutely no indication that Clinton’s victory in Pennsylvania has changed the overall dynamic of the race. This cycle, Hillary Clinton began the campaign as one of the best known people in the world. Democrats uneasy with her quickly settled on Obama as the chief challenger who has now become the frontrunner. As the candidates have become known, each has developed a solid core of supportive constituencies. For Obama, these included African-Americans, younger voters, more liberal Democrats, and upper-income voters. For Clinton, strength comes from white women, older voters, more moderate Democrats, and lower-to-middle income workers.Rasmussen, incidentally, notes that Obama is now running even with or slightly ahead of McCain, with Clinton doing a little less well. Considering that it’s Obama who is the flak catcher, that may be a bit of a problem for the maverick Western senator.Obama appears headed for a big win in North Carolina, which may wipe out Clinton’s Pennsylvania gains in the popular vote. Indiana is more of a jump ball. A new poll for the Indianapolis Star finds a close race in the Hoosier State. It’s Barack Obama 41%, Hillary Clinton 38%. However, Obama leads John McCain by nine points, while Clinton is tied with the Republican. And by a 49% to 35% margin, Obama is seen as the best general election candidate. Another Indiana poll, for the South Bend Tribune (home of Notre Dame University), also finds a dead heat. It’s Obama 48%, Clinton 47%.Here’s an interesting bit of Democratic delegate math. Before Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton needed to win 63% in the remaining contests in order to overtake Barack Obama for the lead in earned delegates. Now she needs to win 68% the rest of the way. Hillary’s 9-point victory in Pennsylvania yields her about a dozen more delegates there than Obama won. That will probably be more than wiped out in little more than a week.Longtime top Clinton advisor Paul Begala, speaking at a luncheon held in New York by my old pal Patricia Duff’s group, The Common Good, said that he is “all but certain” that Barack Obama will win the Democratic presidential nomination. Begala, a longtime fixture as a CNN analyst, is also the longtime compadre of James Carville. Who, with tensions running high, so vociferously attacked New Mexico Governor (and former Clinton Cabinet member) Bill Richardson as “Judas” for his endorsement of the freshman Illinois senator.John McCain talks wrestling and America on the WWE’sMonday Night Raw.But Obama can’t simply coast to the Democratic presidential nomination. By far the least wealthy of the candidates — John McCain is the richest, followed by the Clintons — he’s nonetheless in danger of typecasting himself as an elitist. If the key test for the presidency is who is best at working a diner, then McCain, the son and grandson of four-star admirals, is your next president.Obama has a problem with white working class voters. It’s overstated to an extent because the fact he is generally losing these voters to Hillary Clinton has a lot to do with the Clintons’ appeal. After all, she was the “inevitable” nominee for most of this campaign, as you heard virtually everywhere but here, with supposedly the most awesome political machine in Democratic history, and so forth.But between the Wright Stuff and Bittergate, Obama has some long-term problems that go beyond Clinton winning one of her strongest states last week and his taste for arugula. (I had to look it up, it’s a kind of lettuce.)So he played basketball over the weekend, showing some good moves for an old guy (46). In Indiana, he’s no longer pacing the stage like a law professor while delivering high-flown speeches, he’s taking questions and talking specifics in town hall meetings, sleeves rolled up, tie loosened. He even went on Fox News Sunday yesterday, impressing the host and most on the panel that appeared after his 40-minute interview. Obama had pretty much stayed off of Fox News since the channel popularized a completely erroneous report from a right-wing web site run by a religious cult that he was educated in a hardcore Islamic school in Indonesia.And he’s making longer term moves, geared to the general election. There is an agreement between the Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee to form a joint fundraising project, in which contributors to Obama’s record-shattering fundraising machine also give to the DNC. And there is the launch of a 50-state voter registration drive by the Obama campaign.But … there is also the risky re-emergence of Rev. Jeremiah Wright, who speaks to the National Press Club today.The Wright Stuff is very risky indeed. The man whose outrageous comments seriously upset the Democratic frontrunner’s momentum and raised major questions about his fortunes in the general election is more than a little radioactive.So Bill and Hillary Clinton might be pleased. Until they consider this. House Majority Whip James Clyburn of South Carolina, an uncommitted superdelegate, charges them with playing the race card heavily and predicts that black voters who once revered the former president will never trust him again. And he goes further, to say what an increasing number of observers have been saying privately. Or not so privately. “The Clintons know she can’t win this,” says Clyburn. “But they’re hell-bound to make it impossible for Obama to win.”Once the Democratic nomination is settled, some big things happening outside the campaign echo chamber will have increasing bearing.Crashing property values. A worldwide credit crunch. Wall Street bailouts. Record oil prices. Record gasoline prices. Rising unemployment. The dollar at a record low against the euro. And so we have the lowest level of consumer confidence in the US since 1982. Afghan President Hamid Karzai narrowly escapes a Taliban hit team during yesterday’s celebration of his country’s independence from the Soviets.And yesterday Afghan President Hamid Karzai, on the 16th anniversary of his nation’s independence from the Soviet-backed regime, narrowly escaped being assassinated by a Taliban hit squad in the center of Kabul. Three people, including one member of the national parliament, were killed in the attack, which sent the assorted dignitaries in the grandstand, including the American, British, and Canadian ambassadors, scrambling for their lives. The Afghan fight has been going increasingly poorly over the past two years, as frequently discussed on NWN. …You can always see the entire MMQB on PJ Media.** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is trading between $119 and $120 per barrel.Your posts are welcome in the Forum.
At least two people, including one member of the national parliament, were killed by the Taliban, who attacked with automatic weapons and rocket fire. Three Taliban fighters were killed by government security forces.
The attack sent the assorted dignitaries in the grandstand, including the American and British ambassadors, scrambling for their lives, as seen in the video above. The Afghan fight has been going increasingly poorly over the past two years, as frequently discussed on NWN.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Indianapolis, Indiana and Chicago.
John McCain is in Coral Gables, Florida.
Hillary Clinton is in Wilmington, North Carolina.
Bill Clinton is in Hartford City, New Castle, Shelbyville, and Martinsville, Indiana.
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull opens wide
in less than a month.
SATURDAY REPORTS
** NEWSWEEK NATIONAL POLL: OBAMA HAS A SIGNIFICANT LEAD OVER CLINTON. This should be no surprise. In a poll taken April 24-25, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton nationally, 46% to 38%.
** U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AT 26-YEAR LOW. Let’s review. Crashing property values. A worldwide credit crunch. Wall Street bailouts. Record oil prices. Record gasoline prices. Rising unemployment. The dollar at a record low against the euro. And so we have the lowest level of consumer confidence in the US since 1982.
I’m now paying $4.10 a gallon for gas. (Premium, yes, but the regular gasoline, which is not good for my car, is not that much lower.) The big wholesale outlets around me are rationing rice. (?!) But why worry?
** ROMNEY DOES RENO.Mitt Romney speaks to the Nevada Republican Convention today at the Peppermill in Reno on behalf of John McCain. Romney won the lightly-contested Nevada Republican caucuses, on the strength of Mormon voters, a contest totally overshadowed by the big Democratic fight between Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John Edwards. Does this mean the former moderate Masschusetts governor-turned-great-right-hope will be McCain’s running mate? Well, you might want to make a small bet on that in Reno, the “Biggest Little City In The World.”
But I wouldn’t take that to Vegas if I were you.
** OBAMA ON FOX NEWS. This should be interesting. Barack Obama will appear for the first time on Fox News Sunday, the conservative cable outlet’s attempt to compete with the likes of Meet The Press. Its host is Chris Wallace, son of CBS legend Mike Wallace, who got into a notorious 2006 smack-down with former President Bill Clinton over what he did, and did not, do to catch Osama bin Laden.
Obama has pretty much stayed off of Fox News since the channel popularized a completely erroneous report from a right-wing web site that he was educated in a hardcore Islamic school in Indonesia. The Democratic frontrunner did appear on the Fox show Hannity & Colmes during the the Rev. Jeremiah Wright firestorm. I’m told he was going to be interviewed live by the hosts, conservative Sean Hannity and liberal Alan Colmes, but Hannity went off the deep end insisting that Obama’s career was over and that he would have to resign his seat in the Senate. Thus, in real time, disqualifying himself from conducting an interview with the frontrunning presidential candidate. Correspondent Major Garrett conducted it instead.
Wallace, meanwhile, a few weeks back went on the early morning chatfest Fox and Friends — which did not see fit to air John McCain’s important speech at the U.S. Naval Academy, mind you (let’s guess, vets on that show, zero?) — to criticize the hosts for their continual Obama-bashing. He ended up walking off the set after the exchange became heated. (This, incidentally, is the show which repeatedly invoked the fake story about Obama’s Muslim education. The story originated on a web site run by a religious cult, that of the Rev. Moon.)
Tomorrow’s appearance should be quite interesting.
Incidentally, I think it would be good for hyperpartisans of all stripes to get past their McCain Derangement Syndrome and Obama Derangement Syndrome.
** SPORTS THIS WEEKEND: F1 AND NFL DRAFT. Along with the National Football League Draft of top college players, the first two rounds of which are on Saturday, with the remaining five rounds on Sunday, there is the fourth race in the 18-race, globe-spanning season of Formula One racing. The F1 circuit takes us to Europe, for the Spanish Grand Prix. Defending F1 world champion Kimi Raikonnen is locked in a duel with 2007 rookie runner-up Lewis Hamilton. And in the team championship, defending champion Ferrari, BWW Sauber, and McLaren Mercedes are all within two points of one another.
The F1 Spanish Grand Prix starts at 5 AM Pacific Sunday on the Speed TV channel. In the front row of the grid are Raikonnen and Spaniard Fernando Alonso of Renault, winner of the 2005 and 2006 world driving championships.
** BROWN CHANGES STATE POLICY ON D.N.A. Former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown has changed California state policy on the use of DNA testing to nab criminals. Previously, only an exact match would be used to pursue so-called “cold cases,” those which have proved impervious to less high tech forms of crime solving. Now, Brown will use the State of California’s DNA databank to look for close matches. Which can mean imperfect renderings of the original data or close relatives. Using the close match approach will enable investigators to zero in on potential perpetrators who might not be in the system as convicted criminals themselves.
Brown, a two-time runner-up for the Democratic presidential nomination, unveiled the policy change before the California District Attorneys Association, which, naturally, was appreciative.
Releasing partial matches raises privacy and due process issues that have yet to be tested in the courts, Brown acknowledged in an interview with The Associated Press. Doing so has the potential to focus a criminal probe on an individual who did not commit the crime. But he said there are protections built into the state Department of Justice’s new policy. It would be used rarely, only after extensive double-testing and when all other leads have been exhausted, he said.
“It’s a step forward in prosecuting very serious cases,” Brown told a meeting of the California District Attorneys Association conference, referring to the use of DNA analysis. Later Thursday, he announced the policy shift in a bulletin to law enforcement agencies statewide.
California’s 1 million DNA samples is the world’s third largest DNA database of criminal offenders, after the national databases in the U.S. and Great Britain. It will greatly expand next year, when DNA will be collected from anyone arrested for a crime, regardless of whether they are convicted.
The state’s database has produced more than 5,000 matches, when all DNA collected from a crime scene matches the 26 markers from a particular individual’s DNA. Under the new policy, local law enforcement investigators also would be told when 15 or more of the 26 genetic markers match.
An additional test would then be performed on the DNA’s Y chromosome, a requirement that limits the tests only to males. A statistical analysis would be used to predict whether the suspect is likely to be a close relative — a brother, father, son or grandfather. The policy permits using an even lower standard than 15 matches in cases such as serial killings or rapes in which investigators have exhausted other leads.
The name linked to the partial match would be revealed to investigators only if Brown’s office concludes they have no other clues. The number of such cases is likely to be quite limited. “In a very serious case, this might be the only tool that would allow you to identify the suspect,” Brown said. “It points you in the right direction, but then you’ve got to prove it.”
Hillary Clinton is in Fort Wayne and South Bend, Indiana.
Bill Clinton is in Junction City, Albany, Monmouth, McMinnville, Oregon City, and Portland, Oregon.
John McCain is off the trail.
There is a new Bond Girl on hand for the currently filming Quantum
of Solace, former supermodel Olga Kurylenko.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Rev. Jeremiah Wright surfaces tonight on Bill Moyers’ PBS show.
** SCHWARZENEGGER OPPOSES PROP 98 EMINENT DOMAIN INITIATIVE ON CALIFORNIA’S JUNE BALLOT. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has just announced his opposition to the Prop 98 eminent domain initiative on the June ballot.
“Eminent domain is an issue worth addressing,” said Schwarzenegger in his statement. “However Proposition 98 would undermine California’s ability to improve our infrastructure, including our water delivery and storage. California voters strongly support rebuilding our transportation, housing, education and water infrastructure, so it would be irresponsible to support a measure that would prevent the state from accomplishing our goals.”
The measure, championed by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association and other conservative groups, is opposed by a host of groups, from liberal organizations angry about its stealthy preemption of of renters rights and local rent control laws to the California Chamber of Commerce and former Republican Governor Pete Wilson. It was already lagging in recent polling.
Begala, a longtime fixture as a CNN analyst, is also the longtime compadre of James Carville. Who, with tensions running high, so vociferously attacked New Mexico Governor (and former Clinton Cabinet member) Bill Richardson as “Judas” for his endorsement of the freshman Illinois senator.
Those numbers are unchanged from the night before and, so far, there is absolutely no indication that Clinton’s victory in Pennsylvania has changed the overall dynamic of the race. These results are based upon a four-day rolling average and include two full nights of polling following the Pennsylvania Primary. These results and other data suggest that there is no “momentum” in this Primary Season. Typically, momentum results as voters learn more about a candidate who is doing well. This cycle, Hillary Clinton began the campaign as one of the best known people in the world. Democrats uneasy with her quickly settled on Obama as the chief challenger who has now become the frontrunner. As the candidates have become known, each has developed a solid core of supportive constituencies. For Obama, these included African-Americans, younger voters, more liberal Democrats, and upper-income voters. For Clinton, strength comes from White Women, older voters, more moderate Democrats, and lower-to-middle income workers.
** HERE IS THE NAVY STATEMENT ON A PERSIAN GULF INCIDENT. Released by the 5th Fleet in Bahrain regarding the incident that helped cause an upward move in oil prices. While transiting north in international waters in the Central Arabian Gulf April 24 at approximately 8 a.m. local time, Motor Vessel Westward Venture was approached by two unidentified small boats.
Following proper procedure, Westward Venture issued standard queries to the small boats via bridge-to-bridge radio, but received no response. Westward Venture then activated a flare, which also did not receive a response.
The small boats continued toward Westward Venture and the ship’s embarked security team fired warning shots. The small boats left the area. A short time later, Westward Venture received a query from a unit identifying itself as Iranian Coast Guard. It is not clear if this was one of the small boats or a separate boat. The query was routine and correct.
Westward Venture is a U.S. flagged and chartered roll-on/roll-off ship. It is a cargo ship approximately 1,000 feet long and owned by Totem Ocean Trailer Express Inc.
** NEW OIL PRICE RECORD. Crude oil just broke through the $120 per barrel barrier. The renewed upward drive in the oil price is due to the continuing weakness of the dollar against the euro, OPEC’s refusal to increase production levels, an incident in which a US cargo ship (non-military) fired warning shots at some Iranian boats, attacks by Nigerian guerillas against oil pipelines, and a big risk premium built into the price by various geopolitical crises, mostly around the Middle East.
** BIG MOVES AROUND OBAMA. Let’s see. There is the risky re-emergence of Rev. Jeremiah Wright, seen in the clip above from tonight’s PBS appearance, who speaks to the National Press Club next week.
There is an agreement between the Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee to form a joint fundraising project, in which contributors to Obama also give to the DNC.
There is the launch of a 50-state voter registration drive by the Obama campaign.
The Wright Stuff is very risky indeed. The man whose outrageous comments seriously upset the Democratic frontrunner’s momentum and raised major questions about his fortunes in the general election is more than a little radioactive.
And he goes further, to say what an increasing number of observers have been saying privately. Or not so privately.
“The Clintons know she can’t win this,” says Clyburn. “But they’re hell-bound to make it impossible for Obama to win.”
Wright appears on liberal broadcaster Bill Moyers’ show. There’s an interesting connection between the two, which I suspect will be brought out at some point.
Moyers was press secretary for then President Lyndon Johnson. Wright is a former Marine and Navy corpsman who won a commendation for attending to Johnson when he was ill. How does this square with Wright’s angry condemnations of America?
** INDIANA POLLS: STATISTICAL DEAD HEAT FOR DEMS, BUT OBAMA LEADS MCCAIN.A new poll for the Indianapolis Star finds a close race in the Hoosier State. It’s Barack Obama 41%, Hillary Clinton 38%. However, Obama leads John McCain by nine points, while Clinton is tied with the Republican. And by a 49% to 35% margin, Obama is seen as the best general election canddiate.
Barack Obama is in Indianapolis and Kokomo, Indiana.
Hillary Clinton is in Bloomington, Gary, and East Chicago, Indiana.
Bill Clinton is in North Bend, Oregon.
John McCain is at Arkansas Baptist College and Oklahoma City.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger joins U.S. Transportation Secretary Mary Peters and LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa this morning in Los Angeles to announce federal funding for a major congestion reduction program. I suspect Schwarzenegger will have a few choice words off-camera for Peters about the administration’s back-door attempt to preempt California’s climate change laws.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Last night on The Tonight Show, while discussing climate change and the environment with his friend, host Jay Leno, the former action superstar noted that “Everybody deserves a little Hummer.”
By which he meant, presumably, a smaller and more carbon-friendly version of the Hummer SUV.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LEADS STATES IN COUNTERATTACK AGAINST BACK-DOOR PREEMPTION ATTEMPT ON GREENHOUSE GASES. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and company are mighty unhappy with the Bush White House these days after learning of language buried in a 400-plus page document about fuel efficiency standards that could preempt California’s landmark climate change laws. Former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown was first off the mark on this early this week, with California’s U.S. Senators Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer not far behind. Now Schwarzenegger has written to President Bush expressing his displeasure, rounding up the governors of 11 other states to join him in the process.
On Tuesday, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) used a proposed rulemaking on Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards in an attempt to preempt our states and others across the nation that are working to control greenhouse gas emissions. States must take this action because the federal government has not adequately responded to this urgent threat.
NHTSA has no authority to preempt states from regulating greenhouse gases. Congress and two federal district courts have rejected NHTSA’s claim to such authority. Furthermore, this attack completely undermines the cooperative federalism principles embodied in the Clean Air Act, and is an end run around 40 years of precedent under that law.
Our states intend to comment on the proposed rulemaking and, if necessary, will sue NHTSA, just as California and other states have sued the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, to ensure that states retain the right to reduce global climate change emissions. We hope that you will reconsider this rulemaking on CAFE in light of the crucial efforts undertaken by states to address greenhouse gas emissions.
The eleven other governors joining Schwarzenegger are the governors of Arizona, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Washington.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** THE PETRAEUS MOVE. Here is another angle on the White House move of General Petraeus from commanding the Iraq theater to serving as chief of US Central Command. I have not seen this reported anywhere else.
A new Democratic president would be expected by many to remove Petraeus from the Iraq command. There is no term for theater commanders.
There is however, in the US Armed Forces, a term on the tenures of heads of major regional combatant commands, such as NATO, Central Command, Pacific Command, and so forth. It is three years. And the commander usually gets a fourth year.
That means that a President Obama, for example, would risk a firestorm of protest in the military and much of the country if he tried to remove Petraeus from the CentCom post. As head of Central Command, Petraeus will, if confirmed as expected by the Senate this summer, be in overall charge of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
President Bush and Vice President Cheney are trying to ensure that Petraeus remains in charge of the Iraq War for at least three more years, and perhaps a fourth.
He issued a new and scathing critique of the “terrible and disgraceful” failure of the Bush administration’s response to the disaster.
McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, said that had he been president he would have immediately visited the area after the storm hit in August 2005. While he’s been critical of the administration’s Katrina response before, the Arizona senator’s remarks today were some of the sharpest he’s used.
“Never again will a disaster of this nature be handled in this terrible and disgraceful manner,” McCain said after a walking tour of the Lower Ninth Ward, a predominantly black neighborhood that was devastated by Katrina. “History will judge this president,” he said. “This was an unacceptable scenario.”
McCain toured New Orleans with Louisiana’s new Republican Governor Bobby Jindal, an Indian-American who replaced the Democrat who served at the time of Hurricane Katrina.
** SCHWARZENEGGER POLITICAL SHOP. Josh Ginsberg, late of the Mitt Romney campaign, has signed on with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s political operation as a political director. Actually, he has re-signed on with the former action superstar. He’s seen here in the video look behind the scenes of Schwarzenegger’s re-election campaign in which he served as deputy political director. He’ll work with more seasoned figures such as Steve Schmidt — Schwarzenegger’s campaign manager, who now has his hands full as John McCain’s senior advisor — former Schwarzenegger communications director Adam Mendelsohn, and former Schwarzenegger press secretary Julie Soderlund in overseeing the governor’s involvement in the midterm elections and his initiative campaigns.
Before Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton needed to win 63% in the remaining contests in order to overtake Barack Obama for the lead in earned delegates. Now she needs to win 68% the rest of the way.
John McCain on his tour of “forgotten” places in America.
** MCCAIN’S VEEP: A STRAW IN THE WIND FROM MINNESOTA.Here’s an interesting item. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty (see below re polling in his state) had a Washington funder last night for his re-election, in 2010. It was attended by a who’s who of Beltway Republicans, with some notable McCainiacs co-hosting and putting in appearances. Pawlenty was a key early backer of McCain, who stuck as his campaign melted down last year, not once but twice. The host of the event, former Republican national chairman Ken Mehlman (close to other veep hopefuls Rob Portman and Mitt Romney, and a law school acquaintance of Barack Obama), joked about Pawlenty’s wife supposedly calling him “45.” McCain would be “44,” as in the 44th president of the United States.
** POST-PENNSYLVANIA SUPERDELEGATES SO FAR: OBAMA 3, CLINTON 1.Oregon Congressman David Wu this morning endorsed Barack Obama for president. Wu represents the Portland suburbs. The Oregon primary is on May 20th. Wu is one of three uncommitted superdelegates to endorse Obama since he lost the Pennsylvania primary to Hillary Clinton the day before yesterday. Clinton has picked up one.
One of the three is Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry, who endorsed Obama yesterday. Intriguingly, it was Clinton, not Obama, who won the Oklahoma primary.
Obama’s favorables are moving back up, to 51% favorable, 47% unfavorable. McCain is 51% favorable, 45% unfavorable, while Clinton is 44% favorable, 54% unfavorable. Obama’s unfavorable rating has generally been much higher in this poll than in other polls.
On the Democratic side, it’s Obama 49%, Clinton 42%.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Chicago, where he has no public events.
Hillary Clinton is in Jacksonville, Fayetteville, and Asheville, North Carolina.
John McCain is in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger delivers the keynote address at the DNA/Cold Case Summit, hosted by the California District Attorneys Association.
The DNA/Cold Case Summit highlights “cold” homicide cases. The summit also provides training opportunities for prosecutors, law enforcement officers, and crime victim advocates.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who spent the day yesterday in the Capitol working on knotty California budget issues, returns to a more convivial setting tonight when he appears with his friend Jay Leno on The Tonight Show.
Barack Obama kicking off his drive for Indiana after losing Pennsylvania.
Both Democrats have the same 20-point edge over McCain among women. The difference in the results is among men. There Obama leads McCain by three points, while Clinton trails by 16 points.
Minnesota voted only narrowly for the Democratic nominee in the two elections against George W. Bush, with John Kerry carrying the state by only three points in 2004 and Al Gore by only two points in 2000.
Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty was a key McCain backer in the primaries and is said to be a leading contender for the Republican vice presidential nomination.
In the U.S. Senate race there, incumbent Republican Norm Coleman leads comedian Al Franken, 50% to 43%.
Coloradans are split over Obama’s Bittergate remarks. 44% believe they reflect an elitist point of view, while 44% do not.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
What does it mean? Not that it’s being discussed at all in the constant chatter of the presidential race.
Petraeus is one of the few flag rank US officers to emerge from Iraq with an enhanced reputation. This is because the surge strategy has been relatively successful, at least at stabilizing Iraq. Although Petraeus delivered a sobering report to Congress, describing the situation in Iraq as “fragile and reversible.” As rocket fire struck the heavily guarded Green Zone and Iran brokered an uneasy peace between battling Shiite factions in southern Iraq.
I think it means Afghanistan will no longer be the forgotten war. The Afghan War of 2001, in the wake of 9/11, was a low-cost triumph of American arms. But Osama bin Laden was allowed to escape, along with other Al Qaeda and Taliban cadre, taking up positions in remote portions of Pakistan.
Al Qaeda Prime, as distinguished from affiliates and, if you will, franchisees, are able to issue propaganda manifestos and launch strategic attacks. The Taliban are resurgent in Afghanistan, where US and NATO forces are low on manpower and maneuverable firepower. The Taliban have not turned the tide, but the signs are very troubling. Petraeus gets to turn his skilled attentions to these fundamental problems. While hoping that his subordinate, Lieutenant General Ray Odierno, can keep things together in Iraq, where he will take over as US commander.
** NEVADA: JOHN MCCAIN NOW LEADS OBAMA AND CLINTON. Nevada is a key swing state in presidential politics, one of the reasons the Democrats selected it for the third contest of the primary season. Way back on January 19th. A month ago, Barack Obama led John McCain there. Now he trails McCain, in the latest Rasmussen robopoll. Though he runs significantly better against McCain than does Hillary Clinton, narrow winner of the Nevada Democratic caucuses.
It’s McCain 48%, Obama 43%. And McCain 49%, Clinton 38%.
If you’re wondering about the impact of the ongoing Democratic foodfight, here it is in this state party strategists have been plotting to pick off in the general election.
McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters in the state, up from 49% a month ago. Both Democrats are viewed less favorably than they were a month ago. Obama currently gets positive reviews from 47% of the state’s voters, down from 53% in March. Clinton’s latest numbers are 42% favorable, down from 49% a month ago.
** TOM HAYDEN OUTS HILLARY CLINTON’S RADICAL BACKGROUND.Famed ’60s radical-turned-California state senator Tom Hayden — among many other things, he was president of Students for a Democratic Society (SDS) before future Weather Underground wacko Bernardine Dohrn (aka Mrs. Bill Ayers) — details Hillary’s Clinton’s personal background in radical politics. The ex-Chicago Seven defendant knows his radical politics.
To take just one example, the imagined association between Barack Obama and Bill Ayers will suffice. Hillary is blind to her own roots in the Sixties. In one college speech she spoke of ecstatic transcendence; in another, she said, “our social indictment has broadened. Where once we exposed the quality of life in the world of the South and the ghettos, now we condemn the quality of work in factories and corporations. Where once we assaulted the exploitation of man, now we decry the destruction of nature as well. How much long can we let corporations run us?” She was in Chicago for three nights during the 1968 street confrontations. She chaired the 1970 Yale law school meeting where students voted to join a national student strike again an “unconscionable expansion of a war that should never have been waged.” She was involved in the New Haven defense of Bobby Seale during his murder trial in 1970, as the lead scheduler of student monitors. She surely agreed with Yale president Kingman Brewster that a black revolutionary couldn’t get a fair trial in America. She wrote that abused children were citizens with the same rights as their parents. [75] Most significantly in terms of her recent attacks on Barack, after Yale law school, Hillary went to work for the left-wing Bay Area law firm of Truehaft, Walker and Burnstein, which specialized in Black Panthers and West Coast labor leaders prosecuted for being communists. Two of the firm’s partners, according to Treuhaft, were communists and the two others “tolerated communists”. Then she went on to Washington to help impeach Richard Nixon, whose career was built on smearing and destroying the careers of people through vague insinuations about their backgrounds and associates. [all citations from Carl Bernstein’s sympathetic biography, A Woman in Charge, 2007, pp. 67,69,70,75, 83]
All these were honorable words and associations in my mind, but doesn’t she see how the Hillary of today would accuse the Hillary of the Sixties of associating with black revolutionaries who fought gun battles with police officers, and defending pro-communist lawyers who backed communists? Doesn’t the Rev. Jeremiah Wright whom Hillary attacks today represent the very essence of the black radicals Hillary was associating with in those days?And isn’t the Hillary of today becoming the same kind of guilt-by-association insinuator as the Richard Nixon she worked to impeach?
** THE CURRENT PENNSYLVANIA MARGIN: NINE POINTS. So what was Hillary Clinton’s margin over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania?
The networks reported 10 points, then went away. I noted early this morning that the margin was down to 8 points. Now, with some votes still outstanding, according to the official state tally, it’s 9 points. Clinton 54.6% to Obama 45.4%.
The expected high single digits.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in New Albany, Indiana, Washington, DC, and Chicago.
Hillary Clinton is in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Bill Clinton is in Hillsborough, Elon, Asheboro, Thomasville, and Statesville, North Carolina.
John McCain is in Inez, Kentucky.
NBC political director Chuck Todd says it is virtually impossible
for Barack Obama to be overtaken.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE: SCHWARZENEGGER’S EARTH DAY. While we were consumed with Game Day Pennsylvania yesterday, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger celebrated Earth Day.
He designated 40,000 acres of the Irvine Ranch in Orange County as California’s first “natural landmark.” Then he venteured north to the Central Valley city of Modesto, where participated in the launch of what’s slated to be the largest solar thermal system in the country, at the Frito-Lay manufacturing plant.
Schwarzenegger is off the road today, holding private meetings in and around the Capitol in advance of the annual May budget revise.
Buried inside the 417-page proposal is a section that would prevent states, such as California, from regulating tailpipe fuel economy standards.
California Attorney General Jerry Brown said the provisions were a “covert assault” on his state’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. He vowed to “fight it every step of the way and we will sue them if necessary.”
Brown said the “pre-emption” language in the plan ignored rulings by the Supreme Court and two federal district courts that said the federal gas mileage standards were separate from state greenhouse gas regulations.
** AN “AMERICAN INDEPENDENT” — SAN FRANCISCO’S FUTURE FIRST LADY. We should probably add about two percent to the numbers of independent voters in California. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom’s fiancee, actress Jennifer Siebel, is registered American Independent. Siebel, a former Republican, registered AI because she thought it meant, you know, independent. She didn’t know that the old right-wing party is actually one of the state’s minor parties, albeit its largest. This is probably a common mistake among the politically unwary.
Keeping this in mind, the independent share of the California electorate would move to 22%. With 43.5% Democratic and 33% Republican.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Former President Bill Clinton explains today that he did not say what he seemed to say yesterday, when he seemed to say that it was not he, as widely concluded, but the Obama campaign which played the race card in South Carolina.
** SUMMING UP. I had some radio shows to do for awhile there, including Jim Bohannon’s national show out of Washington.
So, summing up, after some distracting exit polls this afternoon, we’re where we were this morning.
Hillary Clinton won the big state that is tailor made for her appeal. Barack Obama’s momentum there was stalled out by “Bittergate,” and a poor debate performance last week.
Clinton ends up winning by about 10 points. Not the scarily close win that might have hastened party elders off the fence sooner rather than later to bring a finish to her candidacy. But not the blowout she needed to alter the trajectory of the race.
Obama seems likely to make up her gains in the popular vote, which has no official bearing on the nomination, in two weeks in the last big state of the race, North Carolina. Clinton’s success today in Pennsylvania yielded her a net gain of 16 delegates, dropping Obama’s edge in delegates won in the primary and caucus contests to about 150.
Clinton’s victory today in this second oldest of the big states (after Florida) was built largely upon her appeal to older voters, women, and rural voters. She swept the small rural counties — where folks may be a little bit “bitter” about Obama’s private San Francisco fundraiser comments revealed in the Huffington Post — by huge margins. Obama won narrowly among men, but lost big among women, who made up nearly 60% of the primary electorate. He won big among younger voters, but lost big among older voters. 70% of the voters were over 45.
The race moves on to Guam, on May 3rd, and more consequentially to North Carolina and Indiana on May 6th. Obama should take North Carolina and Guam, with Indiana, which should be natural Hillary turf, starting out as something of a toss-up.
On May 13th, West Virginia votes, and Hillary is a heavy favorite there.
On May 20th, it’s Oregon and Kentucky, the latter of which is, like West Virginia, not unlike the middle of Pennsylvania where Hillary did very well. Oregon looks like Obama territory.
On June 1st, Puerto Rico votes, and Hillary is favored there.
On June 3rd, the primaries end in Montana and South Dakota, where Obama should finish on an up note. Assuming that the race goes that far.
** FINAL EXITS. With networks beginning to call the Pennsylvania primary, as expected, for Hillary Clinton, the final exit poll numbers are coming out at Clinton 53%, Obama 47%.
The key dividing line, as I noted early this morning, is generational.
Obama has a big lead among voters under 45.
But Pennsylvania is second only to Florida as the oldest major state in America. And 70% of the voters are over 45.
** WHY “TOO CLOSE TO CALL” MATTERS. Here is why the media exit poll call of “too close to call” matters.
Not because Hillary Clinton will come in second in Pennsylvania behind Barack Obama. I still don’t expect that. But because she is clearly not getting the big win she needs to keep a sense of momentum moving forward, coming out of what is demographically her best big state — very much older, primary closed to independents, less educated, more blue collar, fewer minorities, etc. — still trailing the frontrunner by a large margin of earned delegates.
I spoke with a few big Clinton fundraisers today. Their networks are tapped out.
The former first lady is now heavily reliant on the Internet for fundraising. And that is Obama Land.
She can raise money there still. But she needs hope. Or a sense of grievance. Or a sense of momentum.
Meanwhile, Obama has over $40 million in cash, with no debt. She has several million dollars on hand, and over $10 million in debt. Not counting the $5 million she and former President Clinton loaned to her campaign to be competitive in the Super Tuesday contests of February, in which she was originally going to wrap up the nomination.
Half of her debt is to her former chief strategist and pollster, Mark Penn. Who she dismissed after it emerged he was lobbying for a Latin American trade deal she says she’s against.
The other half of her debt is to vendors around the country. Who are now dunning her for their money.
Obama keeps spending, forcing her to try to keep up with his financial juggernaut. I’m told that she is spending well over 100% of what she had been raising recently.
Unless she keeps her mojo going with a big win in Pennsylvania, she can’t keep raising at the same rate she’s been raising. And that rate is still less than her burn rate. Which is entirely aside from her massive, and growing debt.
** PENNSYLVANIA “TOO CLOSE TO CALL.”
The polls have just closed and the networks say, based on exit polls, “It’s too close to call.”
As I said a few hours ago … Stay tuned.
Hillary Clinton needs a big win over Barack Obama.
** AN EXIT POLL DRAMA. There is something of a drama taking place with the Pennsylvania primary exit polls.
In the first wave of exit polls, the Drudge Report reports that Hillary Clinton is narrowly ahead of Barack Obama.
In the second wave of exit polls, it appears that Barack Obama is narrowly ahead of Hillary Clinton.
But there are questions about sampling. Are Obama strongholds in Eastern Pennsylvania oversampled?
The army of the undecideds. The final round of polls report that roughly 10 percent of the Pennsylvania voters had not yet decided between Clinton and Barack Obama. That’s a sizeable number of people; if, as widely expected, this primary draws a record two million voters (or 50 percent of the Democratic registration), this means that 200,000 Democrats haven’t made up their minds.
And if the past is prologue, this translates into a sizeable advantage for Clinton - one that could arguably add several percentage points to a Clinton victory.
Notwithstanding Obama’s successes in 2008, the inescapable fact is that he has been a poor closer. In most of the primaries thus far, he has been spurned by those voters who withheld their choice until the eleventh hour. The late undecideds have broken for Clinton in almost every contest, opting to go with the known quantity instead of taking a leap with the new guy.
For a lot of reasons (as well as experience in the other states), Polman thinks the undecideds inherently favor what they know — especially in PA:
It’s hard to imagine that undecided Pennsylvanians will break for Obama today; the state’s political culture has long preferred familiar brands to the flavor of the month. And the latest surveys indicate that the undecideds are heavily concentrated on Hillary-friendly turf.
** A DIFFERENT RESULT IN THE ‘90S WITH NEW TECH? It’s becoming a very open question whether or not Bill Clinton would have won the Democratic presidential nomination in 1992, much less the presidency, had information technology been so widespread then as it is now and had transcripts, audio, and video been so accessible as a result.
INTERVIEWER (RE: Jackson comment): “Do you think that was a mistake, and would you do that again?”
CLINTON: “No. I think that they played the race card on me. And we now know, from memos from the campaign and everything, that they planned to do it along.
But today in Pittsburgh, Clinton denied that he said what you just read above, and attacked the reporter who asked him about it.
NBC/NJ: “Sir, what did you mean yesterday when you said that the Obama campaign was playing the race card on you?”
CLINTON: “When did I say that, and to whom did I say that?”
NBC/NJ: “On WHYY radio yesterday.”
CLINTON: “No, no, no. That’s not what I said. You always follow me around and play these little games, and I’m not going to play your games today. This is a day about election day. Go back and see what the question was, and what my answer was. You have mischaracterized it to get another cheap story to divert the American people from the real urgent issues before us, and I choose not to play your game today. Have a nice day.”
** A NEW OIL PRICE RECORD. While the political class and associated chatterers go on about the Pennsylvania primary, which probably will not affect the ultimate outcome of the Democratic presidential nomination, something that matters tremendously to most Americans just got a lot worse today.
Oil is up $10 per barrel since the beginning of last week. And over $2 per barrel since yesterday.
The oil price is killing airlines and driving gasoline to $4 a gallon. Actually, I’ve been paying $4 a gallon since before the “Bittergate” controversy consumed media bandwidth.
The upward spike is coming in the wake of guerilla attacks in Nigeria, Africa’s largest producer, a seaborne pirate attack, the incredible weakness of the dollar against the euro, and a huge risk premium built into the price by ongoing multiple Middle Eastern crises.
Certainly a great deal for presidential candidates in both parties to discuss.
Not that they are.
Sure to be on John Mellencamp’s playlist tonight at the Barack
Obama rally in Indiana, his Hall of Fame hit, “Small Town.”
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY, AND TONIGHT. One of the key indicators about a primary day is where the candidates are on primary night.
Hillary Clinton is in Philadelphia today. And tonight. Her victory party will be at the Park Hyatt Hotel in Philadelphia.
Barack Obama campaigns in Pittsburgh this morning and Philadelphia this afternoon.
But tonight, he is in Evansville, Indiana, at Roberts Municipal Stadium. Indiana votes on on May 6th, along with North Carolina.
Obama has a big lead in the Tarheel State. But the Hoosier State is close. While early polls showed a Clinton lead, recent polls show Obama with only a slight lead there.
So the freshman Illiniois senator aims to make a big show in Indiana tonight, with the national media spotlight on him. Joining the Democratic frontrunner tonight is roots rock superstar John Mellencamp, who will play a mini-concert for the assembled Obama supporters.
Sure to be on the Mellencamp play list tonight? His old hit, “Small Town.”
Mellencamp, not incidentally, is a native of Indiana.
Not to be left out of the spotlight is presumptive Republican nominee John McCain. He continues his Forgotten America tour today, which he kicked off yesterday in Selma, Alabama, site of the one of the most infamous police beatings of civil rights protesters in the 1960s, with a speech in Youngstown, Ohio. There the Vietnam War hero seeks to show that he relates to the problems of those in the former Steel Town USA.
Today is one of Hillary Clinton’s final opportunities to remain
a major factor in the Democratic presidential race.
** GAME DAY: PENNSYLVANIA.
Finally, it’s the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary. According to the media, an enormous event. But maybe not. One thing it is is another long day’s journey into night, as Pennsylvania officials expect a slow count to the final result. In part because they have not had a hotly contested presidential primary in over 20 years. And in part because they have several hundred thousand new voters and switcher voters (independent or Republican) to contend with.
It is certainly Hillary Clinton’s last best chance to get back into a race in which — as I look at it — it is next to impossible for her to finish first at the end of the primaries and caucuses on June 3rd. Clinton, who trails frontrunner Barack Obama by roughly 150 earned delegates, at least three-quarters of a million popular votes (and many more when you include the caucuses, as you should) and literally tens of millions of dollars in fundraising (mostly not from billionaires, but from small donors), is looking for a big psychological victory today.
What constitutes big? Well, it depends on your perspective. At the beginning of March, Clinton led Obama in Pennsylvania by 20 to 25 points. Today, she leads by anywhere from a few points to 10 points. But the undecided voters — at least those reached by pollsters, young voters are increasingly reachable only by mobile phones, which aren’t a factor with most polling outfits — seem to fit the profile of those who might be offended by Bittergate. Older, rural, more socially conservative.
The Clinton campaign furiously objected to a Drudge report yesterday that its internal polling on Sunday night showed her with an 11-point lead. The campaign claimed that it didn’t poll on Sunday night. Which, since most every serious campaign in a serious race polls on a Sunday night, was, let’s say, somewhat suspicious.
The truth is that the Clintons don’t know what’s going to happen today. They expect to win — as they should, handily, given the state’s demographics (more on that in a moment) — but will take any margin of victory at this point.
Six weeks ago, they predicted a huge victory in Pennsylvania. Which the former first lady needs to begin to cut appreciably into Obama’s leads in earned delegates and the overall vote. Now they will spin whatever they get.
Obama was probably never going to win Pennsylvania, but he was closing until “Bittergate” — the media firestorm inadvertently sparked by the report of his arguably demeaning comments about small town Americans — reported by his supporters at Huffington Post, made at a private, off-the-record fundraiser in San Francisco. That ended his upward movement in Pennsylvania polls.
Obama has had two major media firestorms to contend with since the last voting, six weeks ago in Mississippi, where he won in a landslide. Besides Bittergate, there was the Wright Stuff, the rather more consequential remarks made by his now famous former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
Looking at the national polls, Obama has confounded his harshest critics’ deepest hopes by weathering both crises. He leads handily in today’s Rasmussen poll, 49% to 41%. And he leads by more in other recent polls, where he generally runs better than among the Rasmussen robots.
Which does not mean that these issues are not likely to come back round in a general election.
Meanwhile, Pennsylvania is, as it has always been, Clinton’s to lose. Her husband the former president is popular there, and has campaigned incessantly in the Keystone State. The Pennsylvania primary is closed to the independents who have buoyed Obama to many big victories around the country. Pennsylvania is a traditionally machine politics state, and the biggest machine is controlled by popular Governor Ed Rendell, Hillary’s biggest backer. It is a state with a lower than average minority population for a big state. It is a state with fewer college graduates than other big states. And it is the second oldest of the major states in America, trailing only Florida in its proportion of senior citizens following the out-migration of many young people.
Age, incidentally, is the biggest divider in the Democratic presidential race. As I look at the contests to date, younger voters are usually for Obama. Older voters are usually for Clinton. It’s usually a more than 2 to 1 margin for Obama for voters up to 30, and more than 2 to 1 for Clinton for voters over 65.
So how much is enough for Hillary today to retain relevance in the race? Today, the cable pundits are hedging, increasingly setting the bar low. Arbitrarily so, it seems to me. A continuing contest means continuing conflict, continuing chatter, continuing what they do best.
The number is 5 points, or 7 points, or 9 points, or 10 points, or 12 points.
Or something.
A month ago, it seemed she needed to win by 15 to 20 points. But that is probably not going to happen. So the bar has been lowered to … whatever.
What is clear is that Clinton will continue on unless she actually loses to Obama today. Which the Bittergate controversy virtually guarantees will not happen. If she loses by only a handful of points, the superdelegates — who, after all, have spurned her supposedly inevitable candidacy all last year to remain neutral — will probably jump on the Obama bandwagon.
In reality, looking at most of the next contests, she needs to win really big to alter the overall dynamic.
But that is unlikely to happen. So she will likely soldier on, hoping for yet another crisis that might at last wreck Obama’s candidacy.
At least until the voting two weeks from now, in North Carolina and Indiana.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Barack Obama rolled out this ad countering Hillary Clinton’s “Stand The Heat” ad launched earlier today. “Who in times of challenge will unite us, not use fear and calculation to divide us?”
** THE CHANGING FACE OF CALIFORNIA POLITICS. Here’s the change in partisan registration figures for California in the Arnold Era, from stats provided Friday by California Secretary of State Debra Bowen.
January 2004
Democrats 43.2%
Republicans 35.7%
Independents* 17.1%
* (decline to state and miscellaneous)
The Democrats are doing a good job of treading water, increasing their share of the California electorate by 0.3%. There are more Democrats now than four years ago, of course, as the population increases.
The Republicans have lost three points during a period which has seen two landslide elections for Arnold Schwarzenegger as California’s governor.
Independents have gained three points. The minor parties, such as Greens and Libertarians, have remained under one percent each.
Clearly, the best conceptual route to the highest offices in California is to be a Democrat who can win independents.
A conservative Republican, or a Republican who can readily be portrayed as a conservative Republican, has an enormous uphill battle.
Why has Schwarzenegger enjoyed such unique success? Three reasons. First, he was never a conservative Republican. Second, he is properly positioned on a matrix of issues and themes, along dual axes of left-right and future-past. Third, he is a unique brand, a global icon, thanks to his own moves and decisions and to massive studio promotion to establish him as the world’s greatest action movie star.
** OIL PRICE CRASHES THROUGH ANOTHER RECORD TODAY. Crude oil crashed through the $117 barrier, closing today at a record $117.54 per barrel.
** SCHWARZENEGGER GOING ALL OUT TO QUALIFY REDISTRICTING REFORM INITIATIVE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has now contributed over $1.25 million from his California Dream Team committee to qualify a redistricting reform initiative for the November California ballot. This is about half the money raised by the campaign to date, and much of the rest of the funding was solicited by the former action superstar.
Outgoing Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, never quite able to pass a bill as promised — with one legislative session ending in sheer Marx Brothers fashion with a bill passed by the state Senate, which Nunez said he supported, mysteriously getting lost in the shuffle between the two legislative houses — says he will put together a competing initiative to oppose this one, which is backed by political reform groups such as Common Cause and the League of Women Voters. It’s unclear how likely that is, as Nunez leaves the speakership on May 13th, replaced by new Speaker Karen Bass.
Schwarzenegger aides won’t say how much money he raised last Thursday in Manhattan at events sponsored by two billionaires, Mayor Michael Bloomberg and financier Ronald Perelman. The proceeds were slated to go to the California Dream Team, which Schwarzenegger can use for this initiative, another, or general purpose advocacy.
** COMING TUESDAY — GAME DAY: PENNSYLVANIA. On Tuesday, it’s “Game Day: Pennsylvania.” I’ll be anchoring PJ Media network’s coverage throughout the day, weaving together reports and information from correspondents and contacts inside and outside the contest state, as usual. The anchor coverage will be linked to and, to an extent, mirrored here on NWN. This is a continuation of the “Game Day: Iowa,” “Game Day: New Hampshire,” “Game Day: Michigan And Vegas,” “Game Day: Nevada And South Carolina Republicans,” “Game Day: South Carolina Democrats,” “Game Day: Florida Republicans,” “Super-Duper Tuesday Special Edition,” “Game Day: Semi-Super Saturday,” “Game Day: Chesapeake Tuesday,” “Game Day: Wisconsin And Hawaii,” “Game Day: Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont,” “Game Day:Wyoming,” and “Game Day: Mississippi” packages.
Scrambling to stay in the race, Hillary Clinton just launched this TV ad, with images of Pearl Harbor, the Cold War, and Osama bin Laden. “If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. Who do you think has what it takes?”
** DRUDGE REPORTS 11-POINT CLINTON PENNSYLVANIA LEAD IN INTERNAL POLLING. CLINTON CAMPAIGN DENIES IT.Controlled excitement is building inside of Clinton’s inner circle as closely guarded internal polling shows the former first lady with an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania! Clinton is polling near to nearly 2 to 1 over Obama in many regions of the state, a top insider explained to the DRUDGE REPORT.
A strong coalition of middle-class and religious voters has all but secured a Clinton victory Tuesday, with headline-making margins, the campaign believes. “It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of how much,” a senior campaign source said Monday morning.
When pressed if the dramatic internal polling numbers could somehow be flawed in a state as demographically complex as Pennsylvania, and with new voter registration surging to unseen levels, the campaign insider held firm. “Senator Obama would be wise not to unpack his bags quite yet.”
Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson and new chief strategist Geoff Garin deny the number, saying that someone is trying to set up Clinton in the expectations game. A game they played very well for much of this primary season themselves. Further, they deny that there is any Clinton poll from last night. Typically, however, campaigns do run tracking polls the Sunday night before an election, especially one so critically important to Clinton’s hopes as this one.
** QUINNIPIAC PENNSYLVANIA POLL: CLINTON WITH STEADY LEAD.The Quinnipiac poll of the Pennsylvania primary shows Hillary Clinton with a significant lead over Barack Obama, 51% to 44%. The poll was conducted over the weekend.
White voters back Sen. Clinton 57 - 38 percent, while blacks back Sen. Obama 84 - 10 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. A look at other subgroups shows:
* Women back Clinton 57 - 38 percent, while men are for Obama 53 - 42 percent;
* White Catholics are for Clinton 66 - 29 percent;
* Voters under 45 go with Obama 57 - 41, while older voters back Clinton 54 - 40 percent.
“Pennsylvania voters apparently made up their minds a couple of weeks ago and nothing has happened since to change them. An extraordinary turnout effort by Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign could snatch this victory from Sen. Hillary Clinton, but that does not appear likely,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Sen. Obama got off message after his ‘bitter’ remarks and never regained his momentum, giving Sen. Clinton the opening to fight another day in Indiana and North Carolina. She wins in Western Pennsylvania; he wins in the East. She gets Catholics, white women and blue-collar labor vote. He captures men, blacks and college grads - and enough delegates to keep his edge in the number that counts most.”
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in McKeesport and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Hillary Clinton is in Scranton, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Bill Clinton is in Greensburg, Arnold, Pittsburgh, Ebensburg, and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
John McCain is in Selma, Boykin, and Thomasville, Alabama.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger attends the Saban Free Clinic dedication ceremony this morning in Los Angeles. This is the renaming of the long-standing Los Angeles Free Clinic in honor of the donation of $10 million from Haim and Cheryl Saban.
The clinic has been in operation for more than 40 years, making it the oldest continuously operating free clinic in the US, serving more than 100,000 patient visits a year. Haim Saban, creator of the Mighty Morphin Power Rangers, was one of the first big-name Democratic contributors to switch to the former action superstar. The event will be webcast live 10:45 AM.
John McCain, launching his week-long tour of the Forgotten
America, says he will unite the country and ignite innovation.
THE MORNING COLUMN
It’s another big week in presidential politics, with Hillary Clinton needing a very big win tomorrow in Pennsylvania over frontrunner Barack Obama to maintain relevance and John McCain trying to show he’s a “different kind of Republican” with his tour of the “Forgotten Parts of America.”
First McCain.
John McCain is doing quite well. He’s ahead of Obama and Clinton in many, though hardly all, polls at a time when the Republican president is near record levels of unpopularity. His party’s far right wing is acceding to the obvious and starting to come on board. Clinton and company show signs of wanting to torpedo Obama into unelectability, though it’s unlikely the Democrats would reward her four years from now with the nomination she was supposed to win so handily this time out.
But for all the ongoing battling between Barack and Hillary, McCain isn’t building much of a lead. Obama, with 1.4 million contributors, mostly on the Internet, has raised three times as much money as McCain. And while last week was dominated in our media by endless talk about such things as small town values and flag pins — driven, naturally, by people who don’t have small town values or wear flag pins — and that’s good for the Republicans, some other things happened that might have more lasting impact.
So McCain’s tour of the Forgotten America — now called the “Time For Action” tour — comes at an important moment. McCain kicks things off today in Selma, Alabama, at the Edmund Pettus Bridge, site of the infamous 1965 incident known as “Bloody Sunday” in which peaceful civil rights marchers were attacked by police with clubs and tear gas. From Selma, says the campaign, “John McCain will travel across the country visiting regions that have been forgotten and left behind by our nation’s elected leaders.”
He’ll tour such places as Alabama’s “Black Belt,” so-called for the color of the earth there, and coincidentally heavily African-American, the old steel town of Youngstown, Ohio, Appalachia, and perhaps New Orleans. McCain wants to show that he is a Republican who can relate to blacks, Latinos, and economically distressed whites.
If Clinton somehow finds a way to overcome Obama’s lead, McCain could, at least on the margin, blunt the usual overwhelming Democratic margins among black voters. Running against Obama, McCain believes he has a shot at a big Latino vote, in part because of his work on the immigration issue that so many conservatives found upsetting. White working class and small town voters are an area of some vulnerability for Obama. Bitter, anyone? And reaching out in this way is reassuring to independent and moderate voters that McCain is not a hardline conservative.
Of course, the Democrats aren’t going to simply allow McCain to cherry pick their constituencies. The Democratic National Committee will dog him every step of the way this week. And he may struggle to show how his economic policies are different from those of the unpopular president. While he’s bashing some corporate titans for greed, the most direct boost in his package for lower and middle income voters is a summertime suspension of the federal gas tax. His middle class tax relief, aside from allowing higher deductions for children, mainly consists of a repeal of the alternative minimum tax. That would mostly benefit people making over $200,000 a year.
Still, symbolism counts for a lot in politics. It will be interesting to see how the Vietnam War hero fares in some places that would certainly not be welcoming to the current occupant of the White House.
Tomorrow night in Pennsylvania, we’ll get a better idea about how much longer the brawl for the Democratic presidential nomination will last. This is probably, due to its older demographics and closed-to-independents primary, the best big state in the country for the Clintons. Hillary needs a very big win there to make any dent in Obama’s lead in earned delegates and the popular vote. Even if she gets that, it’s hard to see her making up much ground elsewhere in the other contests remaining between now and June 3rd, when Montana and South Dakota close out the primary and caucus season.
The Clinton attacks on Obama have done more to drive up her negatives than Obama’s. And her Bosnian Adventure has been more damaging than the Wright Stuff and Bittergate. Hillary’s level of trustworthiness has plummeted, perhaps rendering her unelectable as a result even though the Republicans have not attacked her, concentrating their fire instead on Obama.
If Clinton fails to win big tomorrow in Pennsylvania, look for more big-time Dems to consolidate around Obama. Last Friday was a very telling day, with Southern Democratic icons Sam Nunn and David Boren — the former Georgia senator who ran the Senate Armed Services Committee and the former Oklahoma senator who ran the Senate Intelligence Committee — coming out for Obama. Along with liberal former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, Bill Clinton’s Oxford classmate when they were Rhodes Scholars together 40 years ago. And Hillary Clinton’s Yale Law classmate after that.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Clinton’s lead in Pennnsylvania is based upon rural voters, bowlers, and gun owners. Where there is, of course, a certain overlap. So it might be that if they aren’t for her yet, after the past week, they won’t be. We’ll see on Tuesday.
Bowlers, incidentally, are 24% of the electorate in the closed (i.e., no indies allowed) Pennsylvania Democratic primary electorate. And gun owners comprise 38% of the primary. Personal disclosure: I am a gun owner. I am not a bowler. Though I did get a higher score the first time I went bowling, at age 14, than Barack Obama. Obama’s mistake, having viewed the all-important video, was in assuming that as a good athlete he would automatically be a good bowler. He tried to show style as he rolled his gutter balls, rather than make sure the ball went down the middle to score some points.
And so it goes on a fabulous Sunday, as I contribute to the dumbing down of America.
** COMING TUESDAY — GAME DAY: PENNSYLVANIA. On Tuesday, it’s “Game Day: Pennsylvania.” I’ll be anchoring PJ Media network’s coverage throughout the day, weaving together reports and information from correspondents and contacts inside and outside the contest state, as usual. The anchor coverage will be linked to and, to an extent, mirrored here on NWN. This is a continuation of the “Game Day: Iowa,” “Game Day: New Hampshire,” “Game Day: Michigan And Vegas,” “Game Day: Nevada And South Carolina Republicans,” “Game Day: South Carolina Democrats,” “Game Day: Florida Republicans,” “Super-Duper Tuesday Special Edition,” “Game Day: Semi-Super Saturday,” “Game Day: Chesapeake Tuesday,” “Game Day: Wisconsin And Hawaii,” “Game Day: Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont,” “Game Day:Wyoming,” and “Game Day Mississippi” packages.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Reading and Scranton, Pennsylvania.
Hillary Clinton is in Bethlehem, Johnstown, and University Park, Pennsylvania.
Bill Clinton, who had heart bypass surgery a few years ago, is finally off the trail today.
John McCain is in Washington, D.C. and Selma, Alabama.
Barack Obama addressed 35,000 people last night in Philadelphia,
the largest crowd of the campaign.
SATURDAY REPORTS
** WELCOME TO THE ERA OF PIRATE MEDIA. First we had the activist blogger supporter of Barack Obama, a maxed-out financial contributor to the campaign, admitted to an Obama fundraiser last weekend in San Franciso per a low-level fundraiser for the campaign, who decided to burn the candidate — not that she actually understood the ramifications as she did so — on the Huffington Post. Now we have a recording of a Hillary Clinton rant against the Democratic activist base, also on HuffPo. Purloined from about two months ago.
Pirate Media, indeed.
See below for all, as I find it tedious and irritating.
As Fox Mulder put it: “Trust no one.”
** SCHWARZENEGGER ADDRESS AT YALE CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger keynoted yesterday’s Yale University climate change conference which featured the governors of five American states and the premiers of two Canadian provinces. Later, the former action superstar produced a petition from 18 states, comprising most of the population of the US, pledging prompt action on reducing greenhouse gases.
Schwarzenegger criticized the Bush Administration, predicting a seachange in national policy no matter which party wins the presidency in November (Schwarzenegger is a big John McCain backer whose endorsement was critical to McCain essentially winning the Republican nomination in the California primary, First Lady Maria Shriver is a Barack Obama backer), talked about the issue, and took issue with elements of both right and left for holding back progresss. Here’s what Schwarzenegger said: Thank you very much, President Levin, for the wonderful introduction. And let me just say right off the top: I’m very happy that I’m not the only one with an accent speaking here today. Anyway, it’s great to have you, Dr. Pachauri. Thank you for the wonderful speech. It was really extraordinary.
I want to thank also Governor Jodi Rell for being here today and all the other governors that came and the premier that came down from Canada. We want to thank also Mary Nichols who is the chair of the California Air Resources Board who is with us here today sitting in the front row. Thank you very much. I want to thank Premier Charest for being here from Quebec.
And also we want to thank Professor Dan Esty for being really responsible for organizing this and for having me here today. And he has been a great adviser to our administration for the last four years and so we want to thank you for all your great, great work and for being such a great leader.
And I also want to thank one of our great advisers, environmental advisers, Terry Tamminen, for being here today. I don’t know where Terry is. He’s right here. Terry, get up. It’s really great to be here today with all of you and to be here at Yale. Earlier, I don’t know if you know, but President Levin and I, we created a little bit of action. We went over to the gym and we worked out already. I had no idea that he was that buff, to be honest with you. He bench‑pressed a sophomore, which was really extraordinary.
But anyway, it is great to be here today. And I know that this is an environmental conference, an environmental conference to mark Teddy Roosevelt’s 1908 Yale Governors’ Conference. And it is an extraordinary event here to celebrate this. But even though it’s an environmental conference, I would like to start talking about bodybuilding. See how everyone is waking up now? I like that. The reason is because there is something in common, the image that bodybuilding had and the image that environmentalists have. In the old days when I came over here 40 years ago to America, people worked out with weights but they were embarrassed to admit it, to talk about bodybuilding, to say they were bodybuilders, they worked out with weights, because they were embarrassed about it. And especially big stars in Ho
