With world oil markets rattled by talk of war with Iran, Barack Obama talks up national service yesterday in Colorado Springs.
** OBAMA RESPONDS ON F.I.S.A. Barack Obama’s position on FISA is controversial on the left, as he does not want to pulverize the telecoms for going along with the Bush White House on surveillance in the wake of 9/11. On his Huffington Post blog.
** 4TH OF JULY GUBERNATORIAL GAMES. As San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, who I defended vociferously last year against sneering netrootsers in the wake of the affair with his campaign manager’s wife and subsequent entry into alcoholic treatment, rolls out an exploratory campaign for governor, there have been a few developments.
Second, state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, a Republican inventor of the technology that enables corporations and the government to track you via your cell phone, who backed Al Gore in 2000 and is now an official of the John McCain campaign, is in the late stages of negotiating with strategist Mike Murphy to come on board for his 2010 gubernatorial campaign. Murphy did a good job in California as a key part of the 2003 ensemble for Arnold Schwarzenegger’s first election as governor. But he crashed and burned after that.
** MAC MEETS WITH JEB BUSH IN MEXICO CITY. Is this a good idea?
** NEW RECORD OIL PRICE. After spiking past the $146 per barrel mark during intraday trading, a new record, oil settled at $145.62 per barrel, a record high closing price. Notwithstanding what some of my associates over on the right have been saying. They thought the price would shoot way down. Ah, that woudl be, no. Meanwhile, more revelations are emerging about the role of the Bush Administration in oil contracts that seem to fly in the face of national policy.
** JERUSALEM POST: IRAN WILL HALT NUCLEAR ENRICHMENT IN EXCHANGE FOR REMOVAL OF SANCTIONS. Oddly, well, not really, this is quite similar to the deal which the US just struck with North Korea. Which the far right in America has been blasting for days now.
** MAC’S NEW SUPREMO: STEVE SCHMIDT. I’ve talked with old NWN friend Steve Schmidt, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s re-election campaign manager and Senator John McCain’s senior advisor — who is now running the McCain for President campaign — yesterday and this morning. I will have a column/profile on him on Monday, following the 4th of July weekend.
** THE IRANIAN CONUNDRUM. To attack or not to attack, that is the question. And who should attack? (If anyone attacks.) The US or Israel? And why?
Many anti-Iran activists say the country is run by mad mullahs on the verge of developing a nuclear bomb, with which they will dominate the Middle East and destroy Israel. Of course, some of these folks also said in January 2007 that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was dead. And continued to insist that he was dead for some weeks after. Even after I quickly determined, through Pentagon sources on the same day that I was busy with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s second inaugural, that Khamenei was in fact not dead.
Clearly, Iran is a problem. But how much of a problem? And is the proposed cure worse than the disease?
Frankly, I knew more about this six months ago than I do now. Before the endless Democratic primary campaign. Actually, it’s the Clintons’ fault. (I’m joking a bit.) And the new media culture. The Clintons continued their quest for a return to the White House for months after it was obvious that Barack Obama was the winner. As for the emerging media culture, it puts a premium on endless bickering and not on contemplation of larger issues.
Is Iran a threat? Certainly some sort of threat. What to do about it?
** OBAMA LEADS IN … MONTANA! Yes, according to the new Rasmussen poll, Barack Obama leads John McCain in generally red state Montana, 48% to 43%. It is where Obama won the last primary of the season, in a landslide over Hillary Clinton. And it is part of the Mountain West, the new battleground region where Obama has shown real strength. I guess this is why the Obamas will be in Butte, Montana for the 4th of July.
** MY NEW PODCAST. The road ahead.
** TV AD WARS: CHANGING MCCAIN V. WORKING OBAMA. It’s John McCain who is the candidate of change in the latest round of the TV ad wars, changing to his third campaign slogan in less than four weeks. Barack Obama shows more consistency, as in consistently emphasizing work over welfare in his battleground states message. From my other blog.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Fargo, North Dakota.
John McCain is in Mexico City.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is trading in record territory, around $144 per barrel, on concern about a potential Israeli military strike on Iran and reports of a mysterious supply drop in the US. But gas at my station is down a nickel.
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Pat Skipper:Iran. Another country where we have no workable strategy and little consensus.
Was just looking at the polling this morning. Montana. My god. While I would consider an Obama win there a heavy long-shot (and I was one of the few, the proud who took the Giants on the moneyline), this has to send shivers through the Republican party and every candidate across the country from McCain to dogcatcher. If McCain has to start spending time and money in places like Butte, we’ll be looking at Bob Dole-like electoral figures and a catastrophic meltdown in the house, senate and many state races.
If Schmidt and the McCain campaign can’t find some way to define Obama (in the Rovian sense) and soon, these numbers could begin to harden in the battleground states…and game over.
Jul 3, 2008 - 9:45 am Jonas Blane:Another good Obama speech.
Jul 3, 2008 - 9:47 am Hilltopper:The Montana poll is surprising, but not a great shock. Montana has been trending Democratic in the past few years. In 2004, it elected a very popular Democratic governor and elected Democratic majorities in the state house and senate. In 2006, it elected Jon Tester to the Senate (but lost the majority in the state house by one seat). Montana Democrats have done a really good job of grassroots organizing and they are united. McCain is going to have to fight for this state.
John McCain Voted to Filibuster Minimum Wage Hike
Jul 3, 2008 - 9:53 am Pat Skipper:Be that as it may, Hilltopper, Bush won Montana by 25 percent in 2000 and 20%+ in 2004. That would be a seismic shift. Albeit, it’s three electoral votes. Very costly to the McCain campaign. Also, I continue to look at Indiana and ruminate on Bayh. With the recent Clark dust-up, the smart money begins to look for an experienced campaigner.
Jul 3, 2008 - 10:09 am Capitol Boy:Another really good Barack speech.
Jul 3, 2008 - 10:11 am Capitol Boy:Who is this moron colleague of yours, Michael Ledeen? That is one tool, fool, warmonger.
Jul 3, 2008 - 10:12 am four waters:well since Iraq and Afghanistan are going so swimmingly, invading another country looks like a swell idea.
Jul 3, 2008 - 10:13 am Ann:lol
Jul 3, 2008 - 10:21 am Len:Montana?
Jul 3, 2008 - 10:33 am Dana:I hope Obama has a raincoat.
Forecast for Butte tommorrow:
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Some of the storms could produce small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain. Partly cloudy, with a high near 93. Light wind becoming south between 13 and 16 mph. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph.
Jul 3, 2008 - 10:56 am Jack Aubrey:Only an idiot would believe that the Ayatollah was dead in the face of all other evidence.
So Obama is leading in Montana.
That is amazing.
Jul 3, 2008 - 10:56 am Dana:The Neoncons have zero credibility. They can trot onto Charlie Rose and issue their dire warnings and weaselly excuses but no one believes them anymore. I hope Bush and Rice behind the scnes are grabbing every available lever, etc. to warn Israel off from doing anything. Any sort of attack would be a disaster, likely be ineffective and cause a huge worldwide economic wound as gas prices would go through the roof (imagine us crying over the memory of $5 gas).
The Europeans are with us in re Iran and we should keep working to present a united front. It may seem a bit tepid but likely the best method toward pressuring the Iranians to negotiate.
Jul 3, 2008 - 11:10 am Bill Bradley:The credibility is low. I warned Roger Simon and Michael Ledeen in January 2007, within hours of the highly erroneous report of the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — which was on the same day as Arnold’s second inaugural, incidentally — that the report was totally wrong.
Jul 3, 2008 - 11:43 am Bill Bradley:Obama is up 5 in Montana, in a Republican (Rasmussen) poll.
>Jack Aubrey:
Only an idiot would believe that the Ayatollah was dead in the face of all other evidence.
So Obama is leading in Montana.
That is amazing.
Jul 3, 2008 - 11:44 am Bill Bradley:Jul 3, 2008 - 10:56 am
I doubt he will melt …
>Dana:
I hope Obama has a raincoat.
Forecast for Butte tommorrow:
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Some of the storms could produce small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain. Partly cloudy, with a high near 93. Light wind becoming south between 13 and 16 mph. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph.
Jul 3, 2008 - 11:44 am Bill Bradley:Jul 3, 2008 - 10:56 am
Montana.
End of the cattle drive in Lonesome Dove …
>Len:
Montana?
Jul 3, 2008 - 11:45 am Bill Bradley:Jul 3, 2008 - 10:33 am
Well, no one is talking about an invasion other than the most idiotic people. It’s a matter of multiple, synchronized air strikes.
>four waters:
well since Iraq and Afghanistan are going so swimmingly, invading another country looks like a swell idea.
Jul 3, 2008 - 11:46 am Bill Bradley:Jul 3, 2008 - 10:13 am
Yeah, it’s good. Although I’m kinda tired of his speeches. He needs to do some other stuff.
>Capitol Boy:
Another really good Barack speech.
Jul 3, 2008 - 11:47 am Dana:Jul 3, 2008 - 10:11 am
Is the political world slow to adjust to the world of YouTube, 24/7 news channels, etc. and overly reliant on stump speeches? A lot of operatives want to do what worked before even if changing times call for “other stuff”.
>Bill Bradley:
Yeah, it’s good. Although I’m kinda tired of his speeches. He needs to do some other stuff.
Jul 3, 2008 - 11:52 am Bill Bradley:The fact that the Republicans now have to defend Montana — where their only viable candidate now trails — is quite striking. Which is why I mention it, as Pat knows.
>Pat Skipper:
Be that as it may, Hilltopper, Bush won Montana by 25 percent in 2000 and 20%+ in 2004. That would be a seismic shift. Albeit, it’s three electoral votes. Very costly to the McCain campaign. Also, I continue to look at Indiana and ruminate on Bayh. With the recent Clark dust-up, the smart money begins to look for an experienced campaigner.
Jul 3, 2008 - 11:55 am Bill Bradley:Jul 3, 2008 - 10:09 am
Indeed.
>Hilltopper:
The Montana poll is surprising, but not a great shock. Montana has been trending Democratic in the past few years. In 2004, it elected a very popular Democratic governor and elected Democratic majorities in the state house and senate. In 2006, it elected Jon Tester to the Senate (but lost the majority in the state house by one seat). Montana Democrats have done a really good job of grassroots organizing and they are united. McCain is going to have to fight for this state.
John McCain Voted to Filibuster Minimum Wage Hike
Jul 3, 2008 - 12:00 pm Bill Bradley:Yep.
>Jonas Blane:
Another good Obama speech.
Jul 3, 2008 - 12:00 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 3, 2008 - 9:47 am
There has been literally no debate about this latest potential move against Iran.
We have demonstrable liars and idiots pushing it in the US.
We have more honorable people in Israel pushing it, yet their views have not been examined.
>Pat Skipper:
Iran. Another country where we have no workable strategy and little consensus.
Jul 3, 2008 - 12:02 pm marcus waldron:I have to like Obama’s chances.
Jul 3, 2008 - 12:07 pm carole w:Good article regarding Iran. A little good news on a nice hot weekend. I made the mistake of watching fox news last night. They are so full of ****.
Jul 3, 2008 - 12:16 pm Bill Bradley:Thanks.
I used to enjoy Fox News. I championed Fox News for a Democratic debate. Till they blew it with ridiculous anti-Democrat/Obama-bashing stuff while the decision was going down.
I actually used to go on Fox News, on a fairly regular basis …
Jul 3, 2008 - 12:28 pm Bill Bradley:They are pretty good.
>marcus waldron:
I have to like Obama’s chances.
Jul 3, 2008 - 12:28 pm carole w:Jul 3, 2008 - 12:07 pm
Oh, well…does anyone have any video tape of Bill on Fox? That would be fun to watch.
Jul 3, 2008 - 12:42 pm Ann:lol
carole w:
Oh, well…does anyone have any video tape of Bill on Fox? That would be fun to watch.
Jul 3, 2008 - 12:42 pm
Jul 3, 2008 - 1:15 pm Brasky:“JERUSALEM POST: IRAN WILL HALT NUCLEAR ENRICHMENT IN EXCHANGE FOR REMOVAL OF SANCTIONS.”
Didn’t McCain say that sanctions don’t work and you can’t talk to dictators or you’ll put them on the world stage?
Huh.
Jul 3, 2008 - 1:22 pm Bill Bradley:Ah, hopefully, no.
From the undisclosed Western mountain location, I am constantly talking to a TV camera linked to a satellite. Nowadays, to one “foreign” news channel or another.
>carole w:
Oh, well…does anyone have any video tape of Bill on Fox? That would be fun to watch.
Jul 3, 2008 - 12:42 pm
Jul 3, 2008 - 1:26 pm four waters:“Well, no one is talking about an invasion other than the most idiotic people. It’s a matter of multiple, synchronized air strikes.”
and then we win and all fly home, while Iranians greet us as liberators and the gov’t sits there quietly pouting?
that’s a plan to promote greater stability in the middle east. (oh wait….)
there can be no invasion… we, certainly, have nothing to invade with.
Jul 3, 2008 - 2:04 pm Bill Bradley:(maybe the Army could offer gas coupons in exchange for tours of duty?)
Hey, I’m not endorsing it. I’m simply clarifying the actual options.
I have no intrinsic objection to the use of military force. But at this particular moment, thanks to being dumbed down by six months of campaign blah-blah, I don’t have a very informed view.
Jul 3, 2008 - 2:08 pm Jack Aubrey:Gong Show 1.
** JERUSALEM POST: IRAN WILL HALT NUCLEAR ENRICHMENT IN EXCHANGE FOR REMOVAL OF SANCTIONS. Oddly, well, not really, this is quite similar to the deal which the US just struck with North Korea. Which the far right in America has been blasting for days now.
Jul 3, 2008 - 3:27 pm Jack Aubrey:Gong Show 2.
** MAC MEETS WITH JEB BUSH IN MEXICO CITY. Is this a good idea?
Jul 3, 2008 - 3:28 pm Chris M:“Dumbed down” is exactly how I feel. Compared to my immigrant wife, who pores through 2 or 3 major fiction tomes every month, I’m a mental zombie, stupefied by 24-hour chatter.
Time to unplug and pick up some books. Now don’t worry, just like what’s-his-name, I’ll be ba-ah-h-h-k…but for now…
Happy 4th of July, everybody!
>thanks to being dumbed down by six months of campaign blah-blah
Jul 3, 2008 - 3:30 pm Brasky:“MAC MEETS WITH JEB BUSH IN MEXICO CITY. Is this a good idea?”
1) Democrats hate NAFTA.
2) Republicans hate immigration reform
3) Mexico has ZERO electoral votes
4) Under Bush, boarder drug violence has escalated
Meeting with Jeb is just the cherry on top.
Jul 3, 2008 - 3:47 pm richard locicero:Heard the latest? Dems are considering extending their convention by a day and have Obama give his acceptance speech in 75,000 seat “Mile High Stadium” on 45th anniversary of MLK’s “I have a Dream” Speech. How’s that for a photo op and TV event?
Jul 3, 2008 - 4:12 pm Bill Bradley:Actually, ah, no. The Denver convention is scheduled to end on 8/28, 45th anniversary of “I Have A Dream.”
The fading LA Times reported that Obama wanted to cut the convention SHORT A DAY BEFORE THAT.
Which is wrong.
Obama will give his acceptance speech on the MLK anniversary.
Jul 3, 2008 - 4:16 pm Bill Bradley:Um, does Jeb run a boarding house?
Sorry, couldn’t resist.
>Brasky:
“MAC MEETS WITH JEB BUSH IN MEXICO CITY. Is this a good idea?”
1) Democrats hate NAFTA.
2) Republicans hate immigration reform
3) Mexico has ZERO electoral votes
4) Under Bush, boarder drug violence has escalated
Meeting with Jeb is just the cherry on top.
Jul 3, 2008 - 4:17 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 3, 2008 - 3:47 pm
Indeed.
>Chris M:
“Dumbed down” is exactly how I feel. Compared to my immigrant wife, who pores through 2 or 3 major fiction tomes every month, I’m a mental zombie, stupefied by 24-hour chatter.
Time to unplug and pick up some books. Now don’t worry, just like what’s-his-name, I’ll be ba-ah-h-h-k…but for now…
Happy 4th of July, everybody!
>thanks to being dumbed down by six months of campaign blah-blah
Jul 3, 2008 - 4:18 pm Jack Aubrey:Jul 3, 2008 - 3:30 pm
Is Gavin Newsom for real? Man, oh, man.
Jul 3, 2008 - 4:25 pm Ann:Charlie Crist is getting married.
That’s romantic. lol
Jul 3, 2008 - 4:32 pm richard locicero:You’re right on the date but it seems that the idea of an outdoor extraveganza is being considered. Didn’t JFK hold a rally at the LA Memorial Colleseum in 1960 after the convention? Of course this would be the Acceptance Speech - makes sense since large crowds seem to bring out the best in the candidate and Frank Luntz is already telling people to beg, borrow, or steal a ride to Denver to see what he believes will be one of the all-time barn-burners of a speech.
Jul 3, 2008 - 4:40 pm Ann:I want to see that speech.
Jul 3, 2008 - 4:44 pm Bill Bradley:Yes, JFK did deliver his acceptance speech in 1960 at LA Memorial Coliseum. Which at least according to some did not turn out so well. He apparently had trouble scaling up to the venue.
Which is not a problem that Obama would have.
>richard locicero:
You’re right on the date but it seems that the idea of an outdoor extraveganza is being considered. Didn’t JFK hold a rally at the LA Memorial Colleseum in 1960 after the convention? Of course this would be the Acceptance Speech - makes sense since large crowds seem to bring out the best in the candidate and Frank Luntz is already telling people to beg, borrow, or steal a ride to Denver to see what he believes will be one of the all-time barn-burners of a speech.
Jul 3, 2008 - 4:47 pm Sam Loomis:Jul 3, 2008 - 4:40 pm
Why should people support McCain when he and his team are too lazy to manage his image with simple steps, or by avoiding obvious missteps?
Are these guys trying to win or what?
> AC MEETS WITH JEB BUSH IN MEXICO CITY. Is this a good idea?
Jul 3, 2008 - 4:55 pm Bill Bradley:Unknown.
Jul 3, 2008 - 4:56 pm richard locicero:I note over at SWAMPLAND (TIME’s campaign blog) there’s a piece saying that Steve Schmidt “Hates the Press” and believes that prolonged exposure to the media will hurt your candidate. The writer’s conclusion - “best way to end the cosy relationship” between McCain and the Media. What say you?
Jul 3, 2008 - 5:12 pm Bill Bradley:I actually just got off the phone with Steve Schmidt, who was in the process of ordering a double cheeseburger, which I advised against given the stress, etc.
I have not read the item, but Schmidt is not anti-press. He actually comes out of the PR/communications field. And McCain has actually done very well with the press/media.
I will have a column/profile of Schmidt Monday morning on my other blog, which is on the Huffington Post.
Jul 3, 2008 - 5:18 pm Jack Aubrey:Will you link to it here?
Jul 3, 2008 - 5:23 pm Brasky:Murphy and Poizner? I love it!
Jul 3, 2008 - 5:24 pm Bill Bradley:Absolutely. With ample excerpts.
>Jack Aubrey:
Will you link to it here?
Jul 3, 2008 - 5:26 pm Sacramento Solon:Jul 3, 2008 - 5:23 pm
Bill,
Look forward to reading Monday’s piece.
Hope you’ll have a chance to find some time for yourself this 4th of July weekend.
“Big Russ & Me” arrived today, so I should have ample reading to get my feeble mind engaged. Also have a five mile event in the morning…good to keep my aging body working.
Jul 3, 2008 - 5:39 pm Bill Bradley:Oh, I definitely will.
Good to have you back, Solon!
Jul 3, 2008 - 5:40 pm Sacramento Solon:Thank you. Sorry to have been so quiet these past few days. I’ve been catching up on some reading and doing on-line family history research.
Jul 3, 2008 - 5:50 pm Capitol Boy:That sounds good.
Jul 3, 2008 - 6:19 pm Sacramento Solon:Capitol Boy,
Learned more about my family history in these past couple weeks than I’ve ever known before. Good stuff.
You, sir, have a very fine 4th!
Jul 3, 2008 - 6:26 pm marcos leon:Happy 4th of July!
Jul 3, 2008 - 6:55 pm Sam Loomis:It ought to be commemorated, as the Day of Deliverance by solemn Acts of Devotion to God Almighty. It ought to be solemnized with Pomp and Parade, with Shews, Games, Sports, Guns, Bells, Bonfires and Illuminations from one End of this Continent to the other from this Time forward forever more.
John Adams referring to Independence Day, July 1776
I like the sports, guns and bells part.
Jul 3, 2008 - 7:29 pm Sacramento Solon:Sam,
Thanks great suff. Think I’ll watch part of John Adams mini-series tomorrow.
Jul 3, 2008 - 7:49 pm marcos leon:Is that any good?
Jul 4, 2008 - 1:38 am Sacramento Solon:Marcos,
The part of it I saw on HBO was good. Didn’t watch enough of it to know just how good, but certainly good enough to watch.
Happy 4th!
Jul 4, 2008 - 6:12 am Prospero:I’d like to emphasize what Ann said: Charlie Crist is getting married.
Straight married.
THAT’S what I call LOL.
Jul 4, 2008 - 9:39 am Bill Bradley:Now, now. There’s nothing wrong with being a bachelor. Of any persuasion.
Jul 4, 2008 - 12:13 pm Bill Bradley:I caught one or two episodes of the John Adams miniseries and it was good.
>marcos leon:
Is that any good?
Jul 4, 2008 - 12:14 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 4, 2008 - 1:38 am
That’s a wonderful quote …
>Sam Loomis:
It ought to be commemorated, as the Day of Deliverance by solemn Acts of Devotion to God Almighty. It ought to be solemnized with Pomp and Parade, with Shews, Games, Sports, Guns, Bells, Bonfires and Illuminations from one End of this Continent to the other from this Time forward forever more.
John Adams referring to Independence Day, July 1776
I like the sports, guns and bells part.
Jul 4, 2008 - 12:15 pm richard locicero:Jul 3, 2008 - 7:29 pm
And what is amazing, as McCulloch notes, is that in that letter to Abigail - where he makes that remak - he is already thinking of the United States as a continental nation.
Jul 5, 2008 - 1:35 pm Bill Bradley:Adams was a bit of an imperialist.
Which is not necessarily a bad thing.
Jul 7, 2008 - 9:29 am Bill Bradley:Incidentally, NWN passed 66,000 comments sometime in the past week.
Jul 9, 2008 - 10:08 am