John McCain’s new TV ad for Latino voters in the Mountain West.
** A DAY OF ENGAGEMENT, AND STRANGENESS. Some strange things going on in the campaign. There are, incidentally, two more national polls – CBS/NY Times and ABC/Washington Post – in addition to the one I showed you this morning showing Barack Obama with a solid lead over John McCain nationally.
Obama laid out a new approach, which is mostly his old approach on Iraq. Draw down forces – something the Bush Administration may be adopting now – from Iraq and redirect them to Afghanistan, where the war is in some trouble. McCain is now amenable to increasing US forces, or perhaps NATO forces, it’s not entirely clear, in the country from which the actual attack against the US on 9/11 emanated.
What was odd about Obama’s speech is he is about to make a fact-finding tour of Iraq and Afghanistan, yet is already issuing pronouncements. He’ll be going with two famous vets in the Senate, Nebraska Republican Chuck Hagel and Rhode Island Democrat Jack Reed.
McCain for the second day referred to a non-existent nation in Eastern Europe – Czechoslovakia – in discussing Russia’s opposition to a US missile shield plan. Czechoslovakia broke up in 1992, following the fall of the Soviet empire. It has been replaced by the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
Both candidates also have new TV ads which I find a bit strange. McCain’s new Latino ad, which you see above, and Obama’s brand new ad for battleground states on securing loose nuclear weapons. I’ll get into this in a column for tomorrow.
** “REVENUE NEUTRAL, OVER TIME.” Went to the Press Club luncheon today in Sacramento, which featured the new state Senate minority leader, Dave Cogdill. The scene was somewhat desultory, with most of the folks there in PR or other non-journalistic enterprises with the ongoing collapse of the conventional media’s press corps.
The Central Valley Republican gave a fairly vague talk, inveighing against taxes and eeming to call for the state’s chronic budget deficit to be solved through cuts alone. After several questions, someone asked him the obvious. How would he go about cutting $15 billion? I wouldn’t characterize his response as answer per se, but he did allow as how he is interested in a solution which is ‘revenue neutral, over time.” No one asked what exactly that might mean.
** SAN FRAN: A PROBLEM IN MY OLD HOME TOWN. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, who last week announced an exploratory bid for governor of California, only to find that he had a major problem in the form of illegal immigrant teenage crack dealers who had escaped from a group home in the Riverside/San Bernardino area where they were sent by city officials rather than being appropriately deported to Mexico, has a rather bigger problem today. It turns out that a disgruntled engineer, who currently sits in jail, has locked Newsom and other top city officials out of their e-mail accounts. And in fact has disrupted the entire cyber operations of the City and County of San Francisco.
But, you know, it is still the most beautiful city in America. If you can look around the aggressive pandhandlers still hanging around a few years after the promised end to aggressive panhandling.
** BATTLEGROUND MINNESOTA: OBAMA BY 18. The new Rasmussen poll, run by conservative Republican Scott Rasmussen, shows Barack Obama now leading John McCain in Minnesota by a whopping 52% to 34%. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has been widely tapped as a Mac VP. But the far right doesn’t like him, for what that is worth, and he is clearly not delivering his home state.
Despite the fact that September’s Republican National Convention will take place, by design, in swing state Minnesota.
** QUINNIPIAC NATIONAL POLL: OBAMA BY NINE. The new Quinnipiac national poll of likely voters, conducted July 8-13, shows Barack Obama leading John McCain, 50% to 41%.
All results are available here. Obama leads by large margins amongst those concerned about the economy, the Iraq War, and health care.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Washington, DC and Chicago.
John McCain is in Albuquerque, New Mexico and St. Louis, Missouri.
Obama addresses the changing situation in Iraq today, where the government wants a timeline for US troop withdrawal, as well as the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. McCain responds.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger discusses the Veterans Bond Act of 2008, by Republican state Senator Mark Wyland, which would help vets of recent conflicts buy homes through the Cal Vet program. The event will be webcast live at 11 AM on www.gov.ca.gov.
** MEET MAC’S NEW SUPREMO: STEVE SCHMIDT AND HIS TUMULTUOUS FIRST WEEK. It was a very interesting first meeting. In January 2006, I’d revealed that then embattled Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was getting a new campaign manager. A name Republican operative and veteran of the Bush/Cheney White House to balance the new, Democratic, chief of staff I’d written about a few weeks earlier. I described Schwarzenegger’s impending new campaign manager, a fellow named Steve Schmidt, as a right-wing hatchet man to balance Schwarzenegger’s new chief of staff Susan Kennedy, the longtime Democratic operative, a pro-choice leader and lesbian married on Maui whose appointment enraged California’s far right.
Schwarzenegger’s then new communications director, Adam Mendelsohn, called and told me I had it wrong, that Schmidt was a reasonable and moderate pragmatist, as well as one of his best friends.
Early in our first meeting, I wasn’t so sure about that.
After about 30 seconds, I realized that Schmidt was giving me no response to anything I said. The former high school tight end, dubbed by Karl Rove as the “Bullet” for his imposing shaven-headed mien, simply stared impassively at me as I spoke, offering only the briefest, monotonal responses. I decided to ignore the potentially intimidating modus operandi and act as though I were getting normal responses to what I was saying.
After 10 minutes of this, I was getting normal responses from Schmidt. Thoughtful, amusing even, in a dry sort of way. His earlier act had been an intimidation technique. Later, when Schwarzenegger was working on getting recalcitrant Republican legislators to vote for a massive infrastructure bond package, state Senate Democratic leader Don Perata described Schmidt’s role to me in the meetings as being “like Frank Nitti (Al Capone’s enforcer), just sitting there and staring at them.” … From my other blog.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on Friday, crude oil is now trading down in the $136 to $139 per barrel range on fears of a US economic collapse.
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Capitol Boy:All right. McCain is a war hero. I got it. Anything else to say?
Jul 15, 2008 - 9:27 am Capitol Boy:The ad sux.
Jul 15, 2008 - 9:27 am Ann:lol
Jul 15, 2008 - 9:30 am Brasky:“After crashing over $147 for yet another record on Friday, crude oil is now trading down in the $136 to $139 per barrel range on fears of a US economic collapse.”
I was trying to find some good news in there…and it just ain’t happening…
Jul 15, 2008 - 9:32 am Jonas Blane:If McCain wasn’t a war hero 40 years ago he would be 40 points behind.
Jul 15, 2008 - 9:35 am Jonas Blane:And I like the new ad.
Jul 15, 2008 - 9:36 am Brasky:I have to agree with Capitol Boy, that ad does suck.
Why do they keep using footage of McCain at events? Does he take so much time off that they can’t shoot a fracking decent commercial? As an English commercial it sucks.
And subtitled Spanish commercials always suck.
Jul 15, 2008 - 9:39 am Brasky:Oh, and it’s a minute long, which means they’ll get less rotation than if they had done a 30 second ad.
Triple play!
Jul 15, 2008 - 9:40 am Brasky:…and why are they cutting to shots of other republican candidates looking bored? I mean, one, if I’m a Republican, it reminds me of what guys might have been the nominee (if I had only voted my conscience and gone with Tancredo). Second, it makes him look LESS presidential. Third, it’s a waste of space. Why not show some Latino faces instead?
Jul 15, 2008 - 9:47 am Brasky:…other than that, I have no opinion…
Jul 15, 2008 - 9:47 am Brasky:“BATTLEGROUND MINNESOTA: OBAMA BY 18″
How about this tidbit from that poll:
“…half of Minnesota voters (50%) do not believe offshore drilling is likely to drive down the price of gas. Only 41% believe it is likely to have that effect.
Forty-seven percent (47%) oppose drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska…”
Jul 15, 2008 - 9:52 am Brasky:Sorry to be a post-hog, but I’m going dark soon…
On the Quinnipiac poll, there’s this tidbit:
“About one-fifth of those who voted for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries decline - so far, anyway - to come home to their party.”
I would expect most of those folks to “come home” by Election Day.
Jul 15, 2008 - 9:55 am four waters:Obama’s Spanish ads have had Spanish speaking voice-overs and end with the phrase “Si se puede!”. that seems much stronger than McCain’s voice and subtitles.
…other than that, I have no opinion…
is that possible?
(i don’t either.)
Jul 15, 2008 - 9:58 am Sacramento Solon:Okay, I’ve watched my McCain ad for this day, can I start drinking now?
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:00 am Bill Bradley:Yes.
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:08 am Bill Bradley:Since Mac has repped a border state since 1982, he should give the Spanish thing a shot …
>four waters:
Obama’s Spanish ads have had Spanish speaking voice-overs and end with the phrase “Si se puede!”. that seems much stronger than McCain’s voice and subtitles.
…other than that, I have no opinion…
is that possible?
(i don’t either.)
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:08 am Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 9:58 am
Mostly, yes.
>Brasky:
Sorry to be a post-hog, but I’m going dark soon…
On the Quinnipiac poll, there’s this tidbit:
“About one-fifth of those who voted for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries decline - so far, anyway - to come home to their party.”
I would expect most of those folks to “come home” by Election Day.
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:09 am Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 9:55 am
The drilling thing is bullshit, especially since the companies won’t drill on their current leases.
>Brasky:
“BATTLEGROUND MINNESOTA: OBAMA BY 18″
How about this tidbit from that poll:
“…half of Minnesota voters (50%) do not believe offshore drilling is likely to drive down the price of gas. Only 41% believe it is likely to have that effect.
Forty-seven percent (47%) oppose drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska…”
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:10 am Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 9:52 am
I see.
>Brasky:
…other than that, I have no opinion…
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:10 am Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 9:47 am
It may be that they are trying to diss the notoriously anti-Mexican Tom Tancredo.
Except nobody really knows or cares who that loon is …
>Brasky:
…and why are they cutting to shots of other republican candidates looking bored? I mean, one, if I’m a Republican, it reminds me of what guys might have been the nominee (if I had only voted my conscience and gone with Tancredo). Second, it makes him look LESS presidential. Third, it’s a waste of space. Why not show some Latino faces instead?
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:11 am Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 9:47 am
Like a number of us, McCain does better in action situations rather than posed situations …
>Brasky:
I have to agree with Capitol Boy, that ad does suck.
Why do they keep using footage of McCain at events? Does he take so much time off that they can’t shoot a fracking decent commercial? As an English commercial it sucks.
And subtitled Spanish commercials always suck.
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:12 am Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 9:39 am
It’s in specialty markets.
>Brasky:
Oh, and it’s a minute long, which means they’ll get less rotation than if they had done a 30 second ad.
Triple play!
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:13 am Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 9:40 am
I see.
>Jonas Blane:
And I like the new ad.
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:14 am Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 9:36 am
30.
>Jonas Blane:
If McCain wasn’t a war hero 40 years ago he would be 40 points behind.
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:15 am Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 9:35 am
No good news …
>Brasky:
“After crashing over $147 for yet another record on Friday, crude oil is now trading down in the $136 to $139 per barrel range on fears of a US economic collapse.”
I was trying to find some good news in there…and it just ain’t happening…
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:15 am Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 9:32 am
They are rebooting the default.
>Capitol Boy:
All right. McCain is a war hero. I got it. Anything else to say?
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:16 am four waters:Jul 15, 2008 - 9:27 am
MONDAY, JULY 14, 2008 14:53 EDT
A Democratic surge in Florida, Nevada
Some numbers are in, and they’re eye-popping: Democrats have registered nearly seven times more voters than their Republican counterparts have in Florida this year. From January to May, more than 106,000 voters signed up as Democrats. Fewer than 17,000 declared themselves Republicans.
full story:
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:22 am Brasky:http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/
“Like a number of us, McCain does better in action situations rather than posed situations …”
I thought he looked good in the “cowboy shot” commercial. Actually, that commercial had great production value, but the message didn’t have any meaningful impact.
Like a state of the art cruse missile filled with a confetti warhead.
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:25 am Brasky:“They are rebooting the default.”
the campaign equivalent of the Blue Screen of Death?
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:30 am Pat Skipper:Again, grim for McCain. This poll strikes me as closer to reality, given what we see state-by-state. Did some playing around with the electoral map, and none of it looks good for the R’s.
Consider this:
Obama is leading in every state that Kerry won, with polling numbers higher than Kerry’s voting percentage in every state, except New Hampshire. NH is something of a dead heat. Four electors.
However, McCain is in trouble in the following Bush states: Colorado (9), Iowa (7), Indiana (11), Ohio (20), Missouri (11), Montana (3), and New Mexico (5). That’s 66 electoral votes. That does not include Virginia (13) and North Dakota (3)–both of which are showing very close poll numbers (within the margin). That’s a total of 79 “Bush” electors up for grabs.
Bush won the last time around by 286-252. As we all know, a switch in Ohio would have thrown the election to Kerry-Edwards.
But, looking at these numbers with a calculator, there are several ways for Obama to come up with the eighteen electoral votes he’d need to carry the day. Or the twenty-two he’d need if he lost in New Hampshire.
Anybody see a way for McCain to win here, if things don’t changes drastically and soon?
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:38 am marcos leon:That is very … something.
Brasky:
“They are rebooting the default.”
the campaign equivalent of the Blue Screen of Death?
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:30 am
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:39 am Pat Skipper:By the way, had to love the speculation on Hardball last night, given the Minnesota numbers, that Pawlenty is out and that stiffy Romney is the favorite. Because he’s good on the economy! And Michigan! And Mormons love him!
By the way, I forget Nevada. Poor John.
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:41 am Bill Bradley:Romney could theoretically help in Nevada. But I expect an Obama win there.
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:44 am Bill Bradley:Ah, indeed …
>marcos leon:
That is very … something.
Brasky:
“They are rebooting the default.”
the campaign equivalent of the Blue Screen of Death?
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:30 am
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:45 am Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 10:39 am
I think Obama is up 6 to 10 nationally. This is a bit on the high end.
When you look at the state polls, it is obvious Obama has the edge.
And the smart McCain people will not deny that.
>Pat Skipper:
Again, grim for McCain. This poll strikes me as closer to reality, given what we see state-by-state. Did some playing around with the electoral map, and none of it looks good for the R’s.
Consider this:
Obama is leading in every state that Kerry won, with polling numbers higher than Kerry’s voting percentage in every state, except New Hampshire. NH is something of a dead heat. Four electors.
However, McCain is in trouble in the following Bush states: Colorado (9), Iowa (7), Indiana (11), Ohio (20), Missouri (11), Montana (3), and New Mexico (5). That’s 66 electoral votes. That does not include Virginia (13) and North Dakota (3)–both of which are showing very close poll numbers (within the margin). That’s a total of 79 “Bush” electors up for grabs.
Bush won the last time around by 286-252. As we all know, a switch in Ohio would have thrown the election to Kerry-Edwards.
But, looking at these numbers with a calculator, there are several ways for Obama to come up with the eighteen electoral votes he’d need to carry the day. Or the twenty-two he’d need if he lost in New Hampshire.
Anybody see a way for McCain to win here, if things don’t changes drastically and soon?
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:47 am Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 10:38 am
Nevada is going Democratic, as I wrote a few days ago.
Florida I am not convinced about, given the Cuban population and the Navy factor there.
Now Nevada is essentially my backyard, so I have a certain feeling about it.
>four waters:
MONDAY, JULY 14, 2008 14:53 EDT
A Democratic surge in Florida, Nevada
Some numbers are in, and they’re eye-popping: Democrats have registered nearly seven times more voters than their Republican counterparts have in Florida this year. From January to May, more than 106,000 voters signed up as Democrats. Fewer than 17,000 declared themselves Republicans.
full story:
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:49 am Bill Bradley:http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:22 am
What was the “cowboy shot” ad?
>Brasky:
“Like a number of us, McCain does better in action situations rather than posed situations …”
I thought he looked good in the “cowboy shot” commercial. Actually, that commercial had great production value, but the message didn’t have any meaningful impact.
Like a state of the art cruse missile filled with a confetti warhead.
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:50 am Brasky:Jul 15, 2008 - 10:25 am
“What was the ‘cowboy shot’ ad?”
http://pajamasmedia.com/billbradley/2008/06/17/quick-hits-22
Jul 15, 2008 - 11:00 am Dana:Carole, I found a transcript to the SNL skit The Pepsi Syndrome Brasky mentioned yesterday. Besides a 50 foot Jimmy Carter it included talking mimes, a cameo by Rodney Dangerfield, and Garrett Morris in drag. Back when SNL was funny and relevant (amazing its format is virtually unchanged since I was a teenager!)
http://snltranscripts.jt.org/78/78ppepsi.phtml
Jul 15, 2008 - 11:01 am Bill Bradley:What was that, 25 years ago?
Jul 15, 2008 - 11:08 am Bill Bradley:That’s a cowboy shot?
Mac’s wearing a Navy ballcap, which I also have, not a cowboy hat.
>Brasky:
“What was the ‘cowboy shot’ ad?”
http://pajamasmedia.com/billbradley/2008/06/17/quick-hits-22
Jul 15, 2008 - 11:09 am four waters:Jul 15, 2008 - 11:00 am
But, you know, it is still the most beautiful city in America. If you can look around the aggressive pandhandlers still hanging around a few years after the promised end to aggressive panhandling.
your cynicism know no bounds. [insert smiley here]
Jul 15, 2008 - 11:13 am Ann:Schwarzeneger was on time. lol
Jul 15, 2008 - 11:20 am Dana:Actually 30 — 1978.
To me the last hurrah of SNL was the era of Mike Meyers, Will Farrell, Adam Sandler, Chris Farley and Phil Hartman, early 90s to 2002. Since it has become rather stale.
>Bill Bradley:
What was that, 25 years ago?
Jul 15, 2008 - 11:24 am carole w:Dana,
Jul 15, 2008 - 11:28 am Dana:Thank You. That was a funny skit. God bless Gilda Radner, she was cool.
Now the L.A. County transportation sales tax proposal and the bulet train bonds are caught up in petty political wrangling.
Here is Sacto Bee on the bullet feud:
http://www.sacbee.com/111/story/1082808.html
I am now being quoted by others on various blogs in re my statement that 100% of zero equal zero, and no one wins if these measures don’t reach the ballot. Hopefully reason will eventually prevail…
Jul 15, 2008 - 11:30 am Brasky:“That’s a cowboy shot?”
I thought that’s what Pat Skipper finally labeled it as…
Jul 15, 2008 - 11:41 am Brasky:dana - thanks for posting the skit.
Carole w - sorry not to respond, didn’t see your post on the other thread. Hope you’re ok during this fire season.
Jul 15, 2008 - 11:42 am carole w:Newsom is running for Governor? How did I miss that press release? Good that means more video of him.
Jul 15, 2008 - 11:43 am Dana:But Larry Craig “hailed Bush’s action, which he called the first step to increase domestic oil production after decades of restrictions.”
I mean, we all look to Larry Craig for energy policy wisdom, right?
http://www.localnews8.com/global/story.asp?s=8673438
A big thanks to my friend in Idaho Falls who brought this to my attention.
>Bill Bradley:
The drilling thing is bullshit, especially since the companies won’t drill on their current leases.
Jul 15, 2008 - 11:52 am Dana:He formed an exploratory committeee, the first step toward a formal bid.
We just finished the last race for Governor and here we already have the field of likely contenders making moves for the next campaign.
>carole w:
Newsom is running for Governor? How did I miss that press release?
Jul 15, 2008 - 11:56 am carole w:Brasky,
Jul 15, 2008 - 11:56 am Brasky:We are looking great up here! It is 70 degrees and raining. It is very nice fishing weather. I am more worried about Sacto’s running weather! Sacto and I have a dinner date soon.
Glad to hear it carole w.
After a week of smokey, hot as Hell weather, Sacto is relatively cool and clear…for Sacramento that is.
Jul 15, 2008 - 11:58 am carole w:Great!I hope Arnold is taking good care of all the Fire guys up there?
Jul 15, 2008 - 12:02 pm carole w:Dana,
Jul 15, 2008 - 12:06 pm Brasky:I agree…wow…good luck to all the contenders!
Last I heard, we were importing firefighters from other countries (Australia and Greece I remember) to help fight the blazes. If it wasn’t for the budget, I’m sure he’d be touring the fire lines more — it’s the kind of thing he seems to enjoy.
Jul 15, 2008 - 12:07 pm Wilbur:Yes, Pat was straightening us out on cinematic slang I hadn’t heard since film school (why the hell didn’t I stick with that, it would’ve been SO much more fun than law!)
>>Pat Skipper: Actually, Bill, that shot is a “full cowboy” with a tilt up. The god shot is looking down from the Heavens, ie an overview of a battlefield. The final shot of Field of Dreams comes to mind or the opening in North by Northwest, or in Titanic before the iceberg hits.
Jul 15, 2008 - 12:11 pm carole w:Brasky,
Jul 15, 2008 - 12:11 pm Pat Skipper:Just make sure Arnold feeds them good food from Morton’s. I heard their food is delicious! The Fire girls and guys deserve to be spoiled.
Bill, Florida’s my native soil, and I doubt Obama has a shot there. I’ll be visiting there the first week of August (hotter than the hinges of hell, as my daddy used to say) and I might get a better idea then. But, I have a hard time imagining the old folks going to Obama in any significant way. Also, you might have noticed that the good Senator is of dark complexion, and there are a large number of people in my home state for whom this is a problem. Sad to say.
Jul 15, 2008 - 12:13 pm carole w:Wilbur,
Jul 15, 2008 - 12:16 pm Pat Skipper:I think lawyers are quite sexy. Especially… when they work on the California budget.
But Wilbur, trust me when I tell you that the law is better way to make a consistent good living!
Jul 15, 2008 - 12:17 pm Wilbur:Ah, the Meaning Of Life conundrum: Net Worth At Death, or Net Fun And Kindness Quotient?
Jul 15, 2008 - 12:37 pm four waters:Last I heard, we were importing firefighters from other countries (Australia and Greece I remember) to help fight the blazes. If it wasn’t for the budget, I’m sure he’d be touring the fire lines more — it’s the kind of thing he seems to enjoy.
it looks good on him.
(Carole… the weather is low 90’s with a delta breeze. quite pleasant. and we’ve been able to see the sky since Sunday.)
Jul 15, 2008 - 12:43 pm four waters:from the Daily Roundup:
It looks like the mind games in the 2010 governor’s race have begun. Matier and Ross report, “No sooner did San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom announce he was forming an exploratory committee for governor than state Attorney General Jerry Brown made a move of his own - one that’s likely to get under Newsom’s skin.
“Reliable sources tell us that Brown has approached San Francisco PR consultant Alex Tourk to help launch his own campaign for governor, and the two were in serious talks this past week.
“Tourk, who once headed Newsom’s Project Homeless Connect program, had a falling-out with his boss when he found out the mayor had slept with Tourk’s wife.”
Jul 15, 2008 - 12:48 pm Dana:Meanwhile doom and gloom by the fed chief fortells more bad economic fallout of the mortgage crisis, etc. Are these the first runs on banks since the S&L crisis? Bush is just destroying the Republican brand, esepcially on the economy and government administration. And McCain suffers for Bush’s sins–which is a summary of Bush’s career: screwup, dump the consequences on someone else.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/07/15/national/w030341D25.DTL
Jul 15, 2008 - 12:56 pm Brasky:“Ah, the Meaning Of Life conundrum: Net Worth At Death, or Net Fun And Kindness Quotient?”
If you sue complete bastards, you can have fun and profit…
Jul 15, 2008 - 1:00 pm carole w:four waters,
Jul 15, 2008 - 1:48 pm Ann:I am glad your weather has cooled off.:)
Who is Newsom’s current PR firm?
lol
** SAN FRAN: A PROBLEM IN MY OLD HOME TOWN. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, who last week announced an exploratory bid for governor of California, only to find that he had a major problem in the form of illegal immigrant teenage crack dealers who had escaped from a group home in the Riverside/San Bernardino area where they were sent by city officials rather than being appropriately deported to Mexico, has a rather bigger problem today. It turns out that a disgruntled engineer, who currently sits in jail, has locked Newsom and other top city officials out of their e-mail accounts. And in fact has disrupted the entire cyber operations of the City and County of San Francisco.
But, you know, it is still the most beautiful city in America. If you can look around the aggressive pandhandlers still hanging around a few years after the promised end to aggressive panhandling.
Jul 15, 2008 - 1:55 pm Brasky:well, at least no one slept with anyone…that we know about
Jul 15, 2008 - 2:14 pm Capitol Boy:I love it.
** “REVENUE, NEUTRAL, OVER TIME.” Went to the Press Club luncheon today in Sacramento, which featured the new state Senate minority leader, Dave Cogdill. The scene was somewhat desultory, with most of the folks there in PR or other non-journalistic enterprises with the ongoing collapse of the conventional media’s press corps.
The Central Valley Republican gave a fairly vague talk, inveighing against taxes and eeming to call for the state’s chronic budget deficit to be solved through cuts alone. After several questions, someone asked him the obvious. How would he go about cutting $15 billion? I wouldn’t characterize his response as answer per se, but he did allow as how he is interested in a solution which is ‘revenue neutral, over time.” No one asked what exactly that might mean.
Jul 15, 2008 - 3:03 pm Brasky:WTF?
Is that geologic time? cosmic time?
it’s like they’re from another planet.
Jul 15, 2008 - 3:07 pm Bill Bradley:I think it’s the slide toward a temporary tax increase.
Jul 15, 2008 - 4:07 pm Bill Bradley:Indeed.
>Capitol Boy:
I love it.
** “REVENUE, NEUTRAL, OVER TIME.” Went to the Press Club luncheon today in Sacramento, which featured the new state Senate minority leader, Dave Cogdill. The scene was somewhat desultory, with most of the folks there in PR or other non-journalistic enterprises with the ongoing collapse of the conventional media’s press corps.
Jul 15, 2008 - 4:07 pm Bill Bradley:Hmm?
>Brasky:
well, at least no one slept with anyone…that we know about
Jul 15, 2008 - 4:08 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 2:14 pm
Interesting scenario …
>Brasky:
“Ah, the Meaning Of Life conundrum: Net Worth At Death, or Net Fun And Kindness Quotient?”
If you sue complete bastards, you can have fun and profit…
Jul 15, 2008 - 4:10 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 1:00 pm
Financial institutions are in big trouble, another reason why McCain campaign chairman Phil Gramm is out of the picture.
>Dana:
Meanwhile doom and gloom by the fed chief fortells more bad economic fallout of the mortgage crisis, etc. Are these the first runs on banks since the S&L crisis? Bush is just destroying the Republican brand, esepcially on the economy and government administration. And McCain suffers for Bush’s sins–which is a summary of Bush’s career: screwup, dump the consequences on someone else.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/07/15/national/w030341D25.DTL
Jul 15, 2008 - 4:11 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 12:56 pm
Jerry may be starting to remind Gavin of a few things.
>four waters:
from the Daily Roundup:
It looks like the mind games in the 2010 governor’s race have begun. Matier and Ross report, “No sooner did San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom announce he was forming an exploratory committee for governor than state Attorney General Jerry Brown made a move of his own - one that’s likely to get under Newsom’s skin.
“Reliable sources tell us that Brown has approached San Francisco PR consultant Alex Tourk to help launch his own campaign for governor, and the two were in serious talks this past week.
“Tourk, who once headed Newsom’s Project Homeless Connect program, had a falling-out with his boss when he found out the mayor had slept with Tourk’s wife.”
Jul 15, 2008 - 4:16 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 12:48 pm
You can’t take it with you.
>Wilbur:
Ah, the Meaning Of Life conundrum: Net Worth At Death, or Net Fun And Kindness Quotient?
Jul 15, 2008 - 4:17 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 12:37 pm
Lawyers don’t do too much budget balancing.
>carole w:
Wilbur,
Jul 15, 2008 - 4:18 pm Bill Bradley:I think lawyers are quite sexy. Especially… when they work on the California budget.
Jul 15, 2008 - 12:16 pm
Be very interested to get your sense of Florida from your visit, Pat.
I don’t think O can beat Mac there. Too strong with the Navy and Cuban ties. But he can engage him there. And apparently they are registering a ton of new Dems in Florida.
>Pat Skipper:
Bill, Florida’s my native soil, and I doubt Obama has a shot there. I’ll be visiting there the first week of August (hotter than the hinges of hell, as my daddy used to say) and I might get a better idea then. But, I have a hard time imagining the old folks going to Obama in any significant way. Also, you might have noticed that the good Senator is of dark complexion, and there are a large number of people in my home state for whom this is a problem. Sad to say.
Jul 15, 2008 - 4:20 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 12:13 pm
I’ve already written about it a few times. Like, hey, today.
She knows that.
>Dana:
He formed an exploratory committeee, the first step toward a formal bid.
We just finished the last race for Governor and here we already have the field of likely contenders making moves for the next campaign.
>carole w:
Newsom is running for Governor? How did I miss that press release?
Jul 15, 2008 - 4:21 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 11:56 am
Well, he has to say something, to justify his Senate seat.
>Dana:
But Larry Craig “hailed Bush’s action, which he called the first step to increase domestic oil production after decades of restrictions.”
I mean, we all look to Larry Craig for energy policy wisdom, right?
http://www.localnews8.com/global/story.asp?s=8673438
A big thanks to my friend in Idaho Falls who brought this to my attention.
>Bill Bradley:
The drilling thing is bullshit, especially since the companies won’t drill on their current leases.
Jul 15, 2008 - 4:22 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 11:52 am
I’ll re-run his introduction of Jerry Brown as the greatest figure in history.
>carole w:
Newsom is running for Governor? How did I miss that press release? Good that means more video of him.
Jul 15, 2008 - 4:23 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 11:43 am
There’s always something. I think it will be worked out before the end of session.
>Dana:
Now the L.A. County transportation sales tax proposal and the bulet train bonds are caught up in petty political wrangling.
Here is Sacto Bee on the bullet feud:
http://www.sacbee.com/111/story/1082808.html
I am now being quoted by others on various blogs in re my statement that 100% of zero equal zero, and no one wins if these measures don’t reach the ballot. Hopefully reason will eventually prevail…
Jul 15, 2008 - 4:26 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 11:30 am
Amazing!
>Dana:
Actually 30 — 1978.
To me the last hurrah of SNL was the era of Mike Meyers, Will Farrell, Adam Sandler, Chris Farley and Phil Hartman, early 90s to 2002. Since it has become rather stale.
>Bill Bradley:
What was that, 25 years ago?
Jul 15, 2008 - 4:28 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 11:24 am
I think of it as … sardonic.
I told Gavin that a year or two ago. He asked what I thought about the homeless problem there. I said it’s definitely improved, in that the agggressive hustling isn’t quite so widespread — though you still have guys follow you across the street — and the smell of urine is not so prevalent.
>four waters:
But, you know, it is still the most beautiful city in America. If you can look around the aggressive pandhandlers still hanging around a few years after the promised end to aggressive panhandling.
your cynicism know no bounds. [insert smiley here]
Jul 15, 2008 - 4:30 pm Dana:Jul 15, 2008 - 11:13 am
Kicking and screaming for the cameras (and right wing voters back home) that unreasonable Democrats forced them to do it
>Bill Bradley:
I think it’s the slide toward a temporary tax increase.
Jul 15, 2008 - 4:51 pm Brasky:dana: “revenue neutral” would more accurately describe tax with set sunset, followed by a rebate, with a sunset.
“I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.”
Given the polarized nature of the legislature, that might be the best we can hope for.
Jul 15, 2008 - 5:10 pm Brasky:BTW - I watched the mccain ad again. It’s a “Hispanic” (McCain’s language) ad that mostly uses film images (rather than the candidate) and yet still doesn’t feature a single person who could recognized as a Latino.
Wow.
Jul 15, 2008 - 5:13 pm Len:Nothing ads up with these people.
Jul 15, 2008 - 5:20 pm Jack Aubrey:Czechoslovakia?
Even I know it’s not that country any more.
What is wrong with McCain?
Jul 15, 2008 - 5:30 pm Ann:lol
Jack Aubrey:
Czechoslovakia?
Even I know it’s not that country any more.
What is wrong with McCain?
Jul 15, 2008 - 5:30 pm
Jul 15, 2008 - 5:31 pm Brasky:I’m troubled by the Ottoman Empire — what’s McCain going to do about that?
Jul 15, 2008 - 5:36 pm Capitol Boy:McCain’s ally Schwarzenegger wants to return the Austro-Hungarian Empire to power!
Jul 15, 2008 - 5:42 pm Dana:You are likely right.
Any word whether the usual suspects will try to defeat the redistrictuing reform on the Nov. ballot?
>Brasky:
dana: “revenue neutral” would more accurately describe tax with set sunset, followed by a rebate, with a sunset.
“I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.”
Given the polarized nature of the legislature, that might be the best we can hope for.
Jul 15, 2008 - 5:48 pm Brasky:Dana:
The trusted source (which I always keep close at hand) says:
“Reply hazy, try again.”
Jul 15, 2008 - 5:59 pm Bill Bradley:With regard to redistricting?
Jul 15, 2008 - 6:00 pm Bill Bradley:I think the answer to that is yes.
>Dana:
You are likely right.
Any word whether the usual suspects will try to defeat the redistrictuing reform on the Nov. ballot?
>Brasky:
dana: “revenue neutral” would more accurately describe tax with set sunset, followed by a rebate, with a sunset.
“I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.”
Given the polarized nature of the legislature, that might be the best we can hope for.
Jul 15, 2008 - 6:01 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 5:48 pm
Eh, no.
>Capitol Boy:
McCain’s ally Schwarzenegger wants to return the Austro-Hungarian Empire to power!
Jul 15, 2008 - 6:02 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 5:42 pm Dana:
Turn to T.E. Lawrence — childhood friend of Indiana Jones, btw — no doubt.
>Brasky:
I’m troubled by the Ottoman Empire — what’s McCain going to do about that?
Jul 15, 2008 - 6:02 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 5:36 pm
A pun?
>Len:
Nothing ads up with these people.
Jul 15, 2008 - 6:03 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 5:20 pm
Not a lot of Latino notables for McCain.
>Brasky:
BTW - I watched the mccain ad again. It’s a “Hispanic” (McCain’s language) ad that mostly uses film images (rather than the candidate) and yet still doesn’t feature a single person who could recognized as a Latino.
Wow.
Jul 15, 2008 - 6:06 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 5:13 pm
However that actually works …
>Brasky:
dana: “revenue neutral” would more accurately describe tax with set sunset, followed by a rebate, with a sunset.
“I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.”
Given the polarized nature of the legislature, that might be the best we can hope for.
Jul 15, 2008 - 6:07 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 5:10 pm
Perhaps …
>Dana:
Kicking and screaming for the cameras (and right wing voters back home) that unreasonable Democrats forced them to do it
>Bill Bradley:
I think it’s the slide toward a temporary tax increase.
Jul 15, 2008 - 6:08 pm Brasky:Jul 15, 2008 - 4:51 pm
“With regard to redistricting?”
Yeah, I haven’t gotten beyond the Magic 8 Ball stage of analyzing the November election here in California. Still, I bet the Magic 8 is still more accurate than the Newsweek poll…
Jul 15, 2008 - 6:10 pm Brasky:“Not a lot of Latino notables for McCain.”
Not needed - the guy is running an ad for Latinos that only features old white people. They even included a shot of old white people in the audience nodding their heads!
He’s obviously met a LOT of troops overseas. Would it be so hard to show him shaking hands with even ONE Latino serviceman? How about 2 seconds of a Latino family pledging allegiance or sitting on the porch with an American flag and a yellow ribbon?
Jul 15, 2008 - 6:19 pm Brasky:I saw the Obama ad. For a 30 second spot, I’d like to see something a little tighter.
I can’t wait for tomorrow’s piece.
Jul 15, 2008 - 6:23 pm carole w:CB,
Jul 15, 2008 - 6:23 pm Sacramento Solon:Your man is still looking good!
Mr. Bradley,
Hope you enjoyed the weather I arranged for you this day. Rather cool for Sacramento, wouldn’t you say?
Jul 15, 2008 - 8:37 pm Wilbur:Bill Bradley: Lawyers don’t do too much budget balancing.
True, done the California way it requires too much indulgence in fantasy even for a lawyer. Much more suited to a screenwriter’s talents.
So the plot device is sunsetted tax increase plus structural reforms we all know will be gamed equals projected revenue neutrality “over time”?
Jul 15, 2008 - 9:06 pm marcus waldron:McCain doesn’t know the name of the country he’s talking about. Obama delivers his report before he goes. Lovely.
Jul 15, 2008 - 11:42 pm Jonas Blane:What new video today?
Jul 16, 2008 - 7:52 am Bill Bradley:Obama, as we alternate between Democrat and Republican.
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:20 am Bill Bradley:It’s too bad there can’t be a three-week vacation break for the campaigns.
We’d be getting a much better product.
>marcus waldron:
McCain doesn’t know the name of the country he’s talking about. Obama delivers his report before he goes. Lovely.
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:21 am Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 11:42 pm
Perhaps.
>Wilbur:
Bill Bradley: Lawyers don’t do too much budget balancing.
True, done the California way it requires too much indulgence in fantasy even for a lawyer. Much more suited to a screenwriter’s talents.
So the plot device is sunsetted tax increase plus structural reforms we all know will be gamed equals projected revenue neutrality “over time”?
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:23 am Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 9:06 pm
For the middle of July …
>Sacramento Solon:
Mr. Bradley,
Hope you enjoyed the weather I arranged for you this day. Rather cool for Sacramento, wouldn’t you say?
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:24 am Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 8:37 pm
I don’t love the spot.
>Brasky:
I saw the Obama ad. For a 30 second spot, I’d like to see something a little tighter.
I can’t wait for tomorrow’s piece.
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:25 am Bill Bradley:Jul 15, 2008 - 6:23 pm
Well, a couple of the guys in the overseas service shots could be Latino …
>Brasky:
“Not a lot of Latino notables for McCain.”
Not needed - the guy is running an ad for Latinos that only features old white people. They even included a shot of old white people in the audience nodding their heads!
He’s obviously met a LOT of troops overseas. Would it be so hard to show him shaking hands with even ONE Latino serviceman? How about 2 seconds of a Latino family pledging allegiance or sitting on the porch with an American flag and a yellow ribbon?
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:26 am Brasky:Jul 15, 2008 - 6:19 pm
“Well, a couple of the guys in the overseas service shots could be Latino ”
If it’s not clear and all the other people in the commercial are white, people assume that those folks aren’t Latino.
I’m not asking for the guy to speak spanish, but for God’s sake show some effort. If they had at least forgone the debate clip for an announcer voice-over, they could have at least had someone who sounded Latino.
Given the huge gap developing in the Latino vote, this commercial is a throw-away.
Jul 16, 2008 - 3:13 pm Bill Bradley:I’m going to pan Mac’s Latino ad. I’ve actually watched it 15 times and it’s not clear to me that anybody in it is Latino, though a couple of guys might be.
The average person doesn’t give that level of the benefit of the doubt …
Jul 16, 2008 - 3:43 pm Bill Bradley:Incidentally, NWN passed 67,000 comments sometime in the past week.
Jul 23, 2008 - 6:42 pm