Barack Obama’s new TV ad, featuring his work with Republican Senator Dick Lugar on loose nuclear weapons.
** TV AD WARS: GLOBAL O v. LATIN MAC. From my other blog.
** IOWA: OBAMA LEAD EDGES UP. Barack Obama has opened up a 10-point lead over John McCain in battleground Iowa, 48% to 38% in the new Rasmussen Poll. Obama had a 2-point edge in May and a 7-point lead in June. President Bush is especially unpopular in Iowa.
** MICHIGAN: OBAMA LEAD EDGES UP. Barack Obama, who led John McCain in last month’s Rasmussen poll of the state by 3 points, now leads in Michigan by 8 points. It’s now Obama 47%, McCain 39%. Obama’s gains in the big battleground state have come amongst independents, where he’s turned a 5-point deficit into a 7-point lead, and men, where he’s cut McCain’s 19-point lead to a 5-point lead. The development comes with worsening economic news, which is especially hitting Michigan’s traditional manufacturing base.
THE MORNING COLUMN: OBAMA’S HUGE CALIFORNIA LEAD.
Barack Obama has a huge lead in California over John McCain, according to the latest Field Poll. It’s Obama 54%, McCain 30%. This is a seven-point increase in Obama’s lead since May.
McCain had hoped to make a real run at the Golden State. But as I wrote last month in “Obama’s California,” the state had moved very dramatically into Obama’s column.
The numbers in the Field Poll don’t so much tell the tale as reiterate it. The poll was conducted July 8-14.
Obama has a much higher image score than McCain. Obama is 63% favorable and 26% unfavorable. McCain is 48% favorable and 38% unfavorable.
Obama has a huge lead amongst independent voters, 64% to 18%. While Obama and McCain each have predictably big leads with liberal and conservative voters, respectively, Obama also leads with moderate voters, 59% to 23%.
Obama has consolidated his support amongst backers of Hillary Clinton. In February, Clinton won the Democratic primary, 51% to 43%. Now Obama has the backing of her former supporters, 80% to 8%. So much for the theory of disaffected Clintonites going with McCain.
Interestingly, there isn’t much support for choosing Hillary as Obama’s running mate in this state that was once part of the core of the Clinton machine, a state upon which President Clinton showered attention as no other. 48% of Democrats and independents say Obama should not pick her, while 40% say he should.
Women, the core of Hillary’s support, back Obama over McCain, 56% to 27%. Men also favor Obama, 51% to 35%.
Voters under the age of 40 choose Obama over McCain, 60% to 24%. This is an especially problematic number with regard to the future of the Republican Party in California.
McCain had hoped to challenge Obama for the support of Latino voters around the country, based on Obama’s seeming weakness there in the primaries and on McCain’s immigration policy work in the past. But despite a lot of chatter — including some of it by me — it turns out that it was no so much a matter of Latino voters not liking Obama as their liking Clinton. Obama has an enormous edge, 64% to 21%.
Obama leads amongst white voters, 47% to 37%. He also leads amongst Asian-Americans, 59% to 23%. And amongst African-Americans, 89% to 5%.
There is also a huge enthusiasm gap. 51% of Obama supporters describe themselves as very enthusiastic about him. Only 17% of McCain supporters say the same about their pick.
Obama has enormous leads in California’s two major population centers. He’s up 73% to 12% in the San Francisco Bay Area. And 61% to 27% in Los Angeles County. McCain is competitive only in the Central Valley and non-LA Southern California.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in West Lafayette, Indiana and Chicago.
John McCain is in Cincinnati, Ohio and Omaha, Nebraska.
Obama holds a conference on 21st century security threats at Purdue University in advance of next week’s foreign trip. Among the participants are two potential running mates, former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn — who worked closely with Dick Lugar, seen in the Obama TV spot above — and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh.
McCain speaks to the NAACP convention, where he is expected to focus on education. He’ll be firing back at Obama on Afghanistan and other national security issues through press avails and statements.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger announces California School Finder, a new web site that allows parents and children to easily access existing data about California’s public schools. This is something he’s wanted to do for a few years now. The event will be webcast live at 11 AM on www.gov.ca.gov.
** MEET MAC’S NEW SUPREMO: STEVE SCHMIDT AND HIS TUMULTUOUS FIRST WEEK. It was a very interesting first meeting. In January 2006, I’d revealed that then embattled Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was getting a new campaign manager. A name Republican operative and veteran of the Bush/Cheney White House to balance the new, Democratic, chief of staff I’d written about a few weeks earlier. I described Schwarzenegger’s impending new campaign manager, a fellow named Steve Schmidt, as a right-wing hatchet man to balance Schwarzenegger’s new chief of staff Susan Kennedy, the longtime Democratic operative, a pro-choice leader and lesbian married on Maui whose appointment enraged California’s far right.
Schwarzenegger’s then new communications director, Adam Mendelsohn, called and told me I had it wrong, that Schmidt was a reasonable and moderate pragmatist, as well as one of his best friends.
Early in our first meeting, I wasn’t so sure about that.
After about 30 seconds, I realized that Schmidt was giving me no response to anything I said. The former high school tight end, dubbed by Karl Rove as the “Bullet” for his imposing shaven-headed mien, simply stared impassively at me as I spoke, offering only the briefest, monotonal responses. I decided to ignore the potentially intimidating modus operandi and act as though I were getting normal responses to what I was saying.
After 10 minutes of this, I was getting normal responses from Schmidt. Thoughtful, amusing even, in a dry sort of way. His earlier act had been an intimidation technique. Later, when Schwarzenegger was working on getting recalcitrant Republican legislators to vote for a massive infrastructure bond package, state Senate Democratic leader Don Perata described Schmidt’s role to me in the meetings as being “like Frank Nitti (Al Capone’s enforcer), just sitting there and staring at them.” … From my other blog.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on Friday, crude oil is now trading down in the $133 to $138 per barrel range amidst multiple signs that the weak US economy will cut demand.
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Capitol Boy:I like Barack’s new ad. Reaching across the aisle. Reassuring older white Republican in Lugar.
Jul 16, 2008 - 8:42 am Capitol Boy:Will a Republican ever win another big race in California?
Jul 16, 2008 - 8:43 am Jonas Blane:Good new ad for Obama.
Jul 16, 2008 - 8:52 am Jonas Blane:I guess Arnold’s endorsement is not delivering California for McCain.
Jul 16, 2008 - 8:54 am Len:Great poll and story, good ad. McCain is running as the older second coming of Bush. That would never work in California.
Jul 16, 2008 - 8:56 am four waters:you missed this great tidbit…
And a big Roundup congratulations to Bo Derek, who was appointed by Gov. Schwarzenegger to the Horse Racing Board.
AP reports, “The position requires confirmation by the state Senate and pays $100 per diem.
“Derek is a horse lover who has lobbied Congress for the past five years to ban the slaughter of the animals. She also owns the pet care products company Bless the Beasts, which sells such items as dog shampoos, conditioner and fur polish.
“She also wrote the book “Riding Lessons: Everything That Matters in Life I Learned from Horses.” Her Web site said the autobiography links her life lessons with her understanding of horses.”
And, of course, there was Bolero…
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:03 am Jack Aubrey:I wonder about this ad. Suitcase nukes aren’t the largest threat in voter’s minds nowadays. I don’t see how this bill would stop biological weapons being used. Or how it would stop al-Qaeda from building its own nuke.
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:04 am Jack Aubrey:Haha. Don’t you mean”10?”
four waters:
you missed this great tidbit…
And, of course, there was Bolero…
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:03 am
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:05 am Bill Bradley:Her famous movie.
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:15 am Bill Bradley:I think the ad has some problems. But it does illustrate a few of Obama’s themes.
>Jack Aubrey:
I wonder about this ad. Suitcase nukes aren’t the largest threat in voter’s minds nowadays. I don’t see how this bill would stop biological weapons being used. Or how it would stop al-Qaeda from building its own nuke.
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:15 am Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 9:04 am
Oh, I know about that. I’m trying not to write too much in this slow period.
>four waters:
you missed this great tidbit…
And a big Roundup congratulations to Bo Derek, who was appointed by Gov. Schwarzenegger to the Horse Racing Board.
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:16 am Bill Bradley:The offshore drilling just cemented it. And killed his party statewide.
>Len:
Great poll and story, good ad. McCain is running as the older second coming of Bush. That would never work in California.
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:17 am Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 8:56 am
Obama wants Schwarzenegger in his Cabinet.
>Jonas Blane:
I guess Arnold’s endorsement is not delivering California for McCain.
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:17 am Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 8:54 am
I don’t love it.
>Jonas Blane:
Good new ad for Obama.
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:18 am Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 8:52 am
Eventually.
>Capitol Boy:
Will a Republican ever win another big race in California?
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:18 am Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 8:43 am
It has that. I’m not convinced about the issue.
>Capitol Boy:
I like Barack’s new ad. Reaching across the aisle. Reassuring older white Republican in Lugar.
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:19 am four waters:Jul 16, 2008 - 8:42 am
It has that. I’m not convinced about the issue.
>Capitol Boy:
I like Barack’s new ad. Reaching across the aisle. Reassuring older white Republican in Lugar.
at the moment, that is his national security pedestal… does he have another?
(kinda of the flip side of using your only pedestal to debate in an arena where you are weak — by default, it showcases your weakness. i agree with Bill, for that reason. but i’m not sure he has a choice.)
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:31 am Brasky:Not crazy about the new ad either. As I said yesterday, it should be tighter.
He’s trying to appeal to too many emotions in one ad and seems to be trying to connect strong national security with a rebuilding of our international standing, which is too tall an order for a 30 sec spot. Oh, and let’s sprinkle some bi-partisanship on top for good measure.
He should of zoned-in on one theme or grown the spot to 60 seconds. Maybe both.
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:47 am Kandy Kid:Will the Senate Rules Committee screen Bo Derek’s soft-porn movie “Bolero” during her confirmation hearing? It would certainly improve attendance and media coverage for a rather obscure appointment.
Actually, her animal rights background will be a good asset for the board. Of course, many folks will always remember her corn rows and beads flouncing in “10″.
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:47 am Brasky:I see Bush is coming to Redding tomorrow to discuss the wildfires. Is Arnold going to meet him or no?
Two days after that stunning Field Poll…wow. Someone should really start handing out duck-calls at the events.
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:52 am four waters:i expect he will reiterate Homeland Security’s commitment… the nation is praying for you.
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:57 am Brasky:How about “sorry most of your national guard troops are stuck in Iraq when you need them the most?”
Jul 16, 2008 - 10:02 am four waters:he’s praying for them too
Jul 16, 2008 - 10:03 am Brasky:that explains alot
Jul 16, 2008 - 10:08 am marcos leon:I honestly do not see how Obama is going to lose this election.
Jul 16, 2008 - 10:14 am Brasky:you’re not being pessimistic or paranoid enough marcos leon.
obviously you’re not in politics.
Jul 16, 2008 - 10:19 am Chris M:Between the ad, the Iraq speech with all its “pronouncements” and the his broader speech on terrorism and national security delivered today in Indiana– http://tinyurl.com/Obama-terror — it’s clear that the Obama campaign is engaged in a preemptive strike against the idea that his forthcoming tour represents a Foreign Policy 101 course for an inexperienced candidate. Plus, they’re recasting the tour not as “Obama goes factfinding in Iraq” as the Reeps would prefer but something like “Obama re-introduces the USA to the world.”
Jul 16, 2008 - 10:27 am Brasky:the “i’d like to buy the world a coke” tour.
Jul 16, 2008 - 10:44 am Ann:Where’s Schwarzeneger?
Jul 16, 2008 - 11:04 am Ann:She was naked? OH NO, REALLY?
Boys.
Kandy Kid:
Will the Senate Rules Committee screen Bo Derek’s soft-porn movie “Bolero” during her confirmation hearing? It would certainly improve attendance and media coverage for a rather obscure appointment.
Actually, her animal rights background will be a good asset for the board. Of course, many folks will always remember her corn rows and beads flouncing in “10″.
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:47 am
Jul 16, 2008 - 11:22 am Dana:I am convinced Bush is now all about grandstanding to appeal to the core wingnut Norquist/Dobson branch, despite the harm it is doing the party and McCain’s chances of being elected.
>Bill Bradley:
The offshore drilling just cemented it. And killed his party statewide.
Jul 16, 2008 - 11:37 am Ann:There’s Schwarzeneger.
Jul 16, 2008 - 11:38 am Brasky:McCain seems to be bleeding in every state.
Jul 16, 2008 - 12:00 pm Capitol Boy:It looks good for Barack.
Jul 16, 2008 - 12:07 pm four waters:Bush is praying for Michigan too.
and the banking industry.
and the mortgage industry.
and the airline industry..
and the troops.
(probably not the Iraq and Afghani civilians…. but maybe?)
no wonder he’s too busy to address the issues.
offshore drilling was only cemented when John McCain wholeheartedly backed the idea.
i wonder how their re-branding program is going?
Jul 16, 2008 - 12:18 pm Brasky:“i wonder how their re-branding program is going?”
See Bill’s reporting on the polls.
Jul 16, 2008 - 12:37 pm four waters:dude, that was rhetorical!
Jul 16, 2008 - 12:51 pm Pat Skipper:Working hard today to get out of my mental recession. But at least I’m not whining. Need to stop by the gas station later today. Brother, can you spare eighty buck?
Jul 16, 2008 - 1:00 pm Brasky:sorry four waters - my irony sensor was in the “off” position.
Jul 16, 2008 - 1:49 pm marcus:Obama’s ad is poor. He shows his inexperience. This is all he has to point at for accomplishment.
Jul 16, 2008 - 2:54 pm Brasky:it’s three ads (or maybe four) in one — any one of which could have been a good ad by itself. I think the issue of nukes is good, but probably could have been paired with some “bush taking his eye off the ball” messaging rather than the touchy-feelly stuff. They definitely haven’t honed their foreign policy voice yet.
Jul 16, 2008 - 3:17 pm Bill Bradley:Well, now Obama has ANOTHER new TV ad, in a similar vein. Which I now have to contemplate …
Jul 16, 2008 - 3:32 pm Bill Bradley:The new ad is better.
>marcus:
Obama’s ad is poor. He shows his inexperience. This is all he has to point at for accomplishment.
Jul 16, 2008 - 3:32 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 2:54 pm
My service station just CUT the price of gas.
It’s down 17 cents from its high last month. The owner told me that people were just cutting back and he was losing out on volume.
>Pat Skipper:
Working hard today to get out of my mental recession. But at least I’m not whining. Need to stop by the gas station later today. Brother, can you spare eighty buck?
Jul 16, 2008 - 3:34 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 1:00 pm
With all this prayer, it does occur to me that GWB ain’t exactly right with the Lord.
>four waters:
Bush is praying for Michigan too.
and the banking industry.
and the mortgage industry.
and the airline industry..
and the troops.
(probably not the Iraq and Afghani civilians…. but maybe?)
no wonder he’s too busy to address the issues.
offshore drilling was only cemented when John McCain wholeheartedly backed the idea.
i wonder how their re-branding program is going?
Jul 16, 2008 - 3:35 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 12:18 pm
Perhaps.
>Capitol Boy:
It looks good for Barack.
Jul 16, 2008 - 3:36 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 12:07 pm
Well, he’s solidifying in places like Texas. And he’s up some more in North Carolina.
>Brasky:
McCain seems to be bleeding in every state.
Jul 16, 2008 - 3:36 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 12:00 pm
He was good. I’ll write about that tomorrow morning.
>Ann:
There’s Schwarzeneger.
Jul 16, 2008 - 3:37 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 11:38 am
Bush’s activities domestically don’t really make sense to me. He’s making some good moves internationally.
>Dana:
I am convinced Bush is now all about grandstanding to appeal to the core wingnut Norquist/Dobson branch, despite the harm it is doing the party and McCain’s chances of being elected.
>Bill Bradley:
The offshore drilling just cemented it. And killed his party statewide.
Jul 16, 2008 - 3:38 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 11:37 am
Indeed.
She’s actually a nice person. Staunch Republican.
She dated David Dreier.
>Ann:
She was naked? OH NO, REALLY?
Boys.
Kandy Kid:
Will the Senate Rules Committee screen Bo Derek’s soft-porn movie “Bolero” during her confirmation hearing? It would certainly improve attendance and media coverage for a rather obscure appointment.
Actually, her animal rights background will be a good asset for the board. Of course, many folks will always remember her corn rows and beads flouncing in “10″.
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:47 am
Jul 16, 2008 - 3:39 pm Brasky:Jul 16, 2008 - 11:22 am
“With all this prayer, it does occur to me that GWB ain’t exactly right with the Lord.”
If this was the Old Testament, God would have sent GWB against Egypt, rather than toads and locusts.
Jul 16, 2008 - 3:39 pm Bill Bradley:Actually, brand new Obama slogan: “New Leadership For A Changing World.”
>Brasky:
the “i’d like to buy the world a coke” tour.
Jul 16, 2008 - 3:39 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 10:44 am
They’re going to go at Mac’s expertise in geopolitics.
>Chris M:
Between the ad, the Iraq speech with all its “pronouncements” and the his broader speech on terrorism and national security delivered today in Indiana– http://tinyurl.com/Obama-terror — it’s clear that the Obama campaign is engaged in a preemptive strike against the idea that his forthcoming tour represents a Foreign Policy 101 course for an inexperienced candidate. Plus, they’re recasting the tour not as “Obama goes factfinding in Iraq” as the Reeps would prefer but something like “Obama re-introduces the USA to the world.”
Jul 16, 2008 - 3:40 pm Brasky:Jul 16, 2008 - 10:27 am
“New Leadership For A Changing World.”
I’m going to have to think about that one. It’s a big fat swipe at McCain and Bush, that’s for sure…
Jul 16, 2008 - 4:01 pm Chris M:Stated another way, the goal between now and November is to make Obama an acceptable alternative as commander-in-chief. Part of that is casting doubt about McCain’s supposed expertise, but the main thrust is making Obama look like he understands what’s going on in the world and is capable of protecting America. Given the underlying pro-Dem landscape, if Obama meets that minimum threshold with enough voters, he wins, maybe big.
>They’re going to go at Mac’s expertise in geopolitics.
Jul 16, 2008 - 4:22 pm Jack Aubrey:Good media analysis on your other blog.
Jul 16, 2008 - 5:15 pm Capitol Boy:I want to see the new new Barack ad. It sounds much better.
Jul 16, 2008 - 5:20 pm Kandy Kid:Fulfilling my occasional skunk at the NWN conventional wisdom picnic, this NY Times story (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/16/us/politics/16poll.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin) shows Obama with a -6 favorable/unfavorable rating among white voters in a national poll, while McCain is +7.
Unfortunately, lingering racism, not his national hero status, is McCain’s electoral hole card. Sadly, you cannot campaign against racism.
Jul 16, 2008 - 5:21 pm Jonathan Hemlock:Pathetic.
Jul 16, 2008 - 5:23 pm Jonathan Hemlock:I do hope our conservative friends keep whistling past the graveyard of their richly deserved irrelevance.
Jul 16, 2008 - 5:24 pm richard locicero:Maybe Barack is going to Europe to find this “Czechoslovakia” that MCCain keeps talking about!
Jul 16, 2008 - 5:31 pm richard locicero:And re Obama’s California lead. Just the other day a key McCain aide said the campaign would pour resources into the Golden State to give Barack a run here.
Reminds me of the Civil War story: When Sherman began his “March to the Sea” his opponent - John Bell Hood - decided to march on Ohio from ourside Atlanta. Sherman was delighted, “If he promises to go all the way to the Ohio I’ll be glad to provide him with all the forage and rations he needs!” Course WT did leave Gen Thomas and the Army of the Cumberland behind to whip old John at Franklin and Chattanooga.
Obama doesn’t even need to do that. Just wish them well as they waste money.
Jul 16, 2008 - 5:35 pm Brasky:I think Kid is right to point out a potential weakness among white voters for Obama. This was an issue in the primary (think EXIT POLLS) and Bill continues to point it out as well.
Given the great success of Reep fear mongering, I’m very concerned about this.
That said, I think that if these issues are exposed to the light, Obama could fair very well with white voters of all stripes. It’s also more than possible that the Reeps will overplay their hand, which has been their tendency of late.
Jul 16, 2008 - 5:39 pm Ann:Racism’s your plan? In JULY?
lol
Kandy Kid:
Fulfilling my occasional skunk at the NWN conventional wisdom picnic, this NY Times story (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/16/us/politics/16poll.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin) shows Obama with a -6 favorable/unfavorable rating among white voters in a national poll, while McCain is +7.
Unfortunately, lingering racism, not his national hero status, is McCain’s electoral hole card. Sadly, you cannot campaign against racism.
Jul 16, 2008 - 5:21 pm
Jul 16, 2008 - 5:46 pm Brasky:Bill - nice piece on the other blog. I like the script of the new Obama ad. I’ll have to see the full thing before rendering my verdict.
I like the subtle nod to Camelot.
Time to chart a new course on foreign policy.
Jul 16, 2008 - 5:48 pm marcus waldron:The new Obama ad sounds much better than the one above here.
Jul 16, 2008 - 5:49 pm Brasky:“Racism’s your plan? In JULY?”
It occurs to me that no one has ever admonished the KKK for wearing white past labor day…
Jul 16, 2008 - 5:52 pm Bill Bradley:Well, in California, I have a very nice pearl gray suit I’ve been known to wear well past Labor Day.
Jul 16, 2008 - 6:15 pm Bill Bradley:It’s definitely better.
I heard last night a new ad was coming. And it is.
>marcus waldron:
The new Obama ad sounds much better than the one above here.
Jul 16, 2008 - 6:15 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 5:49 pm
Thanks. It’s a good spot. I can’t get the coding to work yet, here or for HuffPo.
>Brasky:
Bill - nice piece on the other blog. I like the script of the new Obama ad. I’ll have to see the full thing before rendering my verdict.
I like the subtle nod to Camelot.
Time to chart a new course on foreign policy.
Jul 16, 2008 - 6:18 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 5:48 pm
Very nice.
>Ann:
Racism’s your plan? In JULY?
lol
Jul 16, 2008 - 6:18 pm Bill Bradley:We’ll see.
>Brasky:
I think Kid is right to point out a potential weakness among white voters for Obama. This was an issue in the primary (think EXIT POLLS) and Bill continues to point it out as well.
Given the great success of Reep fear mongering, I’m very concerned about this.
That said, I think that if these issues are exposed to the light, Obama could fair very well with white voters of all stripes. It’s also more than possible that the Reeps will overplay their hand, which has been their tendency of late.
Jul 16, 2008 - 6:19 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 5:39 pm
It’s all over in California.
Period. Full stop.
As you know, I respect those guys, blah blah. Whatever. Game over.
>richard locicero:
And re Obama’s California lead. Just the other day a key McCain aide said the campaign would pour resources into the Golden State to give Barack a run here.
Reminds me of the Civil War story: When Sherman began his “March to the Sea” his opponent - John Bell Hood - decided to march on Ohio from ourside Atlanta. Sherman was delighted, “If he promises to go all the way to the Ohio I’ll be glad to provide him with all the forage and rations he needs!” Course WT did leave Gen Thomas and the Army of the Cumberland behind to whip old John at Franklin and Chattanooga.
Obama doesn’t even need to do that. Just wish them well as they waste money.
Jul 16, 2008 - 6:21 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 5:35 pm
Land of the supermodels. And yet, actually, two separate countries.
>richard locicero:
Maybe Barack is going to Europe to find this “Czechoslovakia” that MCCain keeps talking about!
Jul 16, 2008 - 6:22 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 5:31 pm
Problem with your air conditioning, KK?
>Kandy Kid:
Fulfilling my occasional skunk at the NWN conventional wisdom picnic, this NY Times story (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/16/us/politics/16poll.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin) shows Obama with a -6 favorable/unfavorable rating among white voters in a national poll, while McCain is +7.
Unfortunately, lingering racism, not his national hero status, is McCain’s electoral hole card. Sadly, you cannot campaign against racism.
Jul 16, 2008 - 6:23 pm Brasky:Jul 16, 2008 - 5:21 pm
“As you know, I respect those guys, blah blah. Whatever. Game over.”
BIG LOL
Jul 16, 2008 - 6:23 pm Bill Bradley:It would take me about 45 seconds to figure out how to defeat a Republican candidate for governor of California in 2010.
The question of racism in this year’s presidential race takes at least three or four times that.
>Jonathan Hemlock:
I do hope our conservative friends keep whistling past the graveyard of their richly deserved irrelevance.
Jul 16, 2008 - 6:24 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 5:24 pm
It’s a lot better. Should have it here and on HP tomorrow.
>Capitol Boy:
I want to see the new new Barack ad. It sounds much better.
Jul 16, 2008 - 6:25 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 5:20 pm
Thanks.
>Jack Aubrey:
Good media analysis on your other blog.
Jul 16, 2008 - 6:26 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 5:15 pm
Right.
Three issues.
CINC.
Black.
Young and inexperienced.
Plus various assorted winger bullshit that isolated amounts to gross nonsense but in aggregate is a cloud.
>Chris M:
Stated another way, the goal between now and November is to make Obama an acceptable alternative as commander-in-chief. Part of that is casting doubt about McCain’s supposed expertise, but the main thrust is making Obama look like he understands what’s going on in the world and is capable of protecting America. Given the underlying pro-Dem landscape, if Obama meets that minimum threshold with enough voters, he wins, maybe big.
>They’re going to go at Mac’s expertise in geopolitics.
Jul 16, 2008 - 6:30 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 4:22 pm
It looks a little better than it sounds.
>Brasky:
“New Leadership For A Changing World.”
I’m going to have to think about that one. It’s a big fat swipe at McCain and Bush, that’s for sure…
Jul 16, 2008 - 6:31 pm Bill Bradley:Jul 16, 2008 - 4:01 pm
Indeed. Heh. All that stuff.
>Brasky:
“As you know, I respect those guys, blah blah. Whatever. Game over.”
BIG LOL
Jul 16, 2008 - 6:32 pm sergei:Jul 16, 2008 - 6:23 pm
This is so funny a blog.
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:33 pm marcos leon:A few things make me laugh here, that is for sure.
Jul 16, 2008 - 11:23 pm Jonas Blane:What new video today?
Jul 17, 2008 - 7:21 am Bill Bradley:Incidentally, NWN passed 67,000 comments sometime in the past week.
Jul 23, 2008 - 6:42 pm