A Bailout Fairy Tale
In this story, the princess doesn't awake with a kiss, the giant kills Jack, and the glass slipper doesn't fit.
“You are forgetting about the value of our marbles,” sighed the tribal chief. “Our tribesfolk are unwilling to accept marbles in exchange for real goods at a rate of conversion no more than 5% of the old rate.”
“Yes, but that is because the islanders living here have subjectively re-evaluated the pretty marbles and assigned to them a new lower trading value.” The captain added: “The current value is no less authentic than the previous high value we observed when we were last requisitioning things here two years ago.”
“But you misjudge the mood of our islanders,” objected the chief. “Because of the massive losses in their wealth from the drop in marble prices, we are observing family breakups, increasing drunkenness and consumption of rum, outbreaks of shingles, and a few people even jumping to their demise out of coconut trees.”
“That is sad,” observed the whaler’s first mate, “but something here is still wrong. Nothing in the real sector of island life has changed. You have as much food, housing, and clothing as you had last time we were here, more in fact. So why are the islanders convinced they have been impoverished?”
The crew of the whaling ship scratched their heads in wonder. They decided to extend their stay on the island to investigate what was happening.
Meanwhile, the tribal witch doctor came up with a new plan. “We have got to rescue the islanders and save our standard of living,” he insisted in between partaking of traditional dances around the bonfire. “Here is what I suggest. Let us restore the value of pretty shiny marbles at close to their previous exchange value. We will collect all the gold nuggets and half the fields from our tribesfolk and we will then use these to buy up pretty marbles from our islanders at the conversion rate of 90,000 gold nuggets per marble. This will restore the wealth of our people to close to the levels that they enjoyed before the collapse in marble prices. We will restore their confidence in our leadership and in the economy.”
When the rescue plan was announced, cries of joy came from the huts of the fishermen and the farmers. “At last our chiefs are taking real action to rescue us! Our wealth is now safe!”
But the whaling captain was still skeptical. “All you are doing is inflating the conversion value of the marbles,” he objected. “But there is no new real wealth being added to your island. You do not have any more fields, huts, or pineapples than you did before.”
“Not only that,” chimed in the first mate, “but what you are really doing is taking gold nuggets and fields away from the islanders, to be used to buy marbles back from those same islanders. When you are done, the islanders as a group will have the same number of gold nuggets and fields as they did before your rescue plan. In fact, the island will also have the same number of shiny marbles. At most, you are redistributing marbles, nuggets, fields, and spears among your tribespeople.”
At that point the whaling shift lifted anchor. But a year later it did return to the island for one last visit before whaling was outlawed by the world council. This time, things really had changed on the island. Over the past year, the islanders had finally figured out that it was they who were being required to supply the resources to be used to rescue the value of the marbles and to finance those repurchases from themselves at the higher marble conversion rates.
Because of the massive requisition of nuggets and fields needed to finance the rescue plan, many of the farmers and fishermen had decided to stay home sipping tropical juices rather than produce. After all, the taxes they were forced to pay to finance the rescue plan convinced many that effort and labor were not worthwhile. Others decided to take early retirement. “After all,” explained one ex-fisherman, “the government has promised to keep the value of our marbles high.” In other cases, tribesmen concluded that diving for reef fish and other dangerous activities no longer paid enough after taxes to make them worthwhile. Still others stopped sweating in the plantain fields because they figured the tribal chiefs would take care of them and make sure they had enough purchasing power as retirees. After all, just think of all those valuable marbles the chiefs had bought up and were holding, which could be used to support those who stopped working.
Overall, food production was down, the fleet of fishing canoes had decreased sharply, and huts were being allowed to deteriorate. Social cohesion was being undercut, as fewer islanders had enough real assets to purchase brides, and the fertility rate had decreased.
“Now what will you do?” asked the whaling captain. “Simple,” replied the island chief. “We will increase the tax rates on our islanders so that we will have more resources to expand the rescue plan and so we will help the economy to an even greater extent.”
As the whaling ship lifted anchor and sailed off into the sunset, the captain made an entry into his log that read, “The islanders have lost their marbles.”
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Steven Plaut is a professor at the Graduate School of the Business Administration at the University of Haifa
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14 Comments
1. SteveInNJ:I really enjoyed this piece!
Dec 19, 2008 - 5:25 am 2. Craig:“Now what will you do?” asked the whaling captain. “Simple,” replied the island chief. “We will increase the tax rates on our islanders so that we will have more resources to expand the rescue plan and so we will help the economy to an even greater extent.”
Hmmm….I think the name of that island is MANHATTAN.
Dec 19, 2008 - 7:40 am 3. Ten:One of the more perceptive pieces to appear at PJM. One hopes we’ll wake up before it’s too late.
One hopes.
Dec 19, 2008 - 8:36 am 4. John_In_Cleveland:I say redistribute the marbles to the people at a low interest rate of 2% and allow them to too refinance their huts, fields and canoes. That way the money will be repaid to the chiefs with a profit. Simply giving the canoe and hut mortgage companies the marbles to do as they please will continue to provide for larger huts and longer canoes for a select few and not the entire community.
The change has to help everyone. I am a canoe salesman.
Dec 19, 2008 - 8:58 am 5. KarlInOhio:The Island Reserve Board needs to smash a bunch of worthless seashells and distribute those shards declaring that they are worth one marble each. That should get the economy going again having that many “new marbles” in circulation.
Dec 19, 2008 - 12:31 pm 6. finding-people:I liked this story. It puts a lot of things into perspective.
Unfortunately, Obama is stoking up the printing presses and will nonetheless prepare to increase the role of government in our economy and hyperinflate the currency.
He is listening to his Neo-Keynsian bucket brigade and carefully following their recipe for firefighting. They are passing him buckets of gasoline and instructing him to throw it on the smoldering, smoking economy…
We are headed for a perfect storm and Obama is flinging wide the hatches and hoisting the sails…
Dec 19, 2008 - 12:50 pm 7. thegre8_1:I am sick of these G D bailouts. The UAW will not back down from their $130,000 salary and benefit packages and Obama and his group will be more amiable to the union. Spread the word stop buying GM and Chrysler cars and let them go under.
Dec 19, 2008 - 1:23 pm 8. AL:I have another fairy story.
When same whaling ship visited another Pacific Island, they discovered that islanders are in much disarray.
What happened?”, asked captain.
“Well, recently we discovered that we have much less marbles than anyone thought. So nobody want to trade precious marbles for goods, and people stopped working in the fields, gathering tropical fruits, fishing and building canoes and hats. We are starving.”
“So ask you chieftains to make more marbles, or borrow more marbles from other island! Marbles will again begin to trade for goods, and people will start working again.”, said captain.
“No can do”, said conservative and savvy islanders. “We will enslave future generations of islanders, and they will toil to death to return marbles to chieftains and other islanders. We better die.”
Dec 19, 2008 - 5:38 pm 9. Joanna:AL: I don’t get it.
Dec 19, 2008 - 8:23 pm 10. Rashputin:AL – you’re a wonderful example of why they check ID just to buy black spray paint these days. You’ll inhale anything as long as it eats up brain cells.
have a nice day
Dec 20, 2008 - 12:14 am 11. AL:Joanna:
Wealth of the nation is, in essence, productivity of workforce multiplied by employment.
Money, being it marbles, shiny metal coins, fancy paper, or digits in banker’s computers, is abstraction, useless on all means except as a tool to maintain high rate of employment, long-term productivity, and as the result steady wealth creation in the nation.
Whatever government does (printing money, issuing credits, making bailouts, going in debt, changing bank prime, changing banking assets/leverage ratio, etc.) is fine as long as it serves main purpose of money: creating wealth – GDP/person.
It takes tremendous wisdom to maintain right money supply (printed money multiplied by fraction-reserve credit creation and money velocity) to maintain sustainable growth of economy, without creation of credit oversupply bubbles.
Common sense of family finance management has nothing to do with macroeconomics of money and credit management of continental-scale economy.
Dec 20, 2008 - 3:31 am 12. Connie Horn:I’m happy to be old and on S.S. as we will be getting amazing increases!! Enjoy your new President I had nothing to do with him. I’m sorry for my grand-children.
Dec 22, 2008 - 5:25 pm 13. TB:Al’s failure to use articles properly is what makes his response so hard to swallow.
Dec 23, 2008 - 4:33 pm 14. LDS:A little simplistic on the view, but well written and thoroughly enjoyable to read. And, it’s a very good forecast of what Obama and the Dem. squad are going to do.
My favorite part of the whole mortgage crisis is how the Dems. are blaming the Republicans (and getting away with it with the help of their media buddies) when they were responsible for most of it. Unbelievable!
The US wouldn’t be in such sad straits if it weren’t for the Dot com crash (as soon as Billy left office), Enron (Billy again), 9/11 (oops—another Billy), two wars, Katrina, and a host of other forest fires and hurricanes, never mind this whole mortgage thing, which Bush tried to prevent with at least two attempts to increase regulation. GW has had the toughest and most costly presidency since WWII.
I say, if we want to pump up the US economy, we need to STOP funding the United Nations, and stop paying blood money to various Moslem countries. Crushing unions would be next. Has anyone heard about that 6 million dollar golf course the Auto Union’s been keeping?
Dec 28, 2008 - 11:16 pmhttp://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,472304,00.html