Weaker U.S. Leads to Insecurity in Taiwan
Obama's timidity puts the island at China's mercy.
Despite the “era of good feeling” that has emerged between Taiwan and China, tensions in the Taiwan Strait have not disappeared. There are 1,500 missiles aimed at Taiwan. It is also the case that Beijing’s military posture toward Taiwan has hindered efforts to create a thaw in the relationship. China has not given up the notion of using force against Taiwan.
In the latest edition of its biennial military review, the Taiwan Ministry of Defense released a metaphorical bombshell. It noted that with China’s continuing and unrelenting military buildup, “it can now deter foreign militaries from assisting Taiwan.” This, of course, is a euphemism for deterring the United States. Since the U.S. deployed an aircraft carrier in the Taiwan Strait a decade ago when conditions heated on both sides of the divide, China has vowed to thwart any American military assistance for Taiwan. And if the report is accurate, that moment may have arrived.
Taiwan and China have been ruled as separate nations over the last 60 years, but Beijing claims the island must eventually unify with the mainland. The only question that remains is what is meant by “eventually.” Whenever the word independence has been used by Taiwanese politicians, China ratchets up the threat level.
Since the election of President Ma Ying-jeou, who is noticeably cautious in reference to independence, Taiwan’s relations with China have improved. The two nations now have regular commercial flights and are negotiating a possible free trade deal. What has not received much publicity is the fact that Taiwanese business investments in China have led to the employment of millions of Chinese mainlanders. However, these developments exist against a backdrop of China’s insistence that Taiwan is part of “one China.”
Holding China at bay is Taiwan’s most important international ally, the United States. According to the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, the U.S. government has noted it will provide defensive weapons and would intercede if China attacked the island. This report by the Taiwan Ministry, however, indicates that vows of intercession are meaningless gestures now that China’s military strength is sufficient to deter U.S. involvement.
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Herbert London is president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University. He is the author of Decade of Denial (Lanham, Maryland: Lexington Books, 2001) and America's Secular Challenge (Encounter Books).
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24 Comments
1. cedarhill:The domino effect is about to occur. As Obama withdraws US support from the world, a series of events will unfold as bad guys become increasingly emboldened. Taiwan, Israel, South America just to name a few.
Nov 11, 2009 - 5:41 am 2. Old Soldier:I would be shocked in the Taiwanese were not building nukes as we speak.
Nov 11, 2009 - 6:10 am 3. bubblehead:I am a proud American patriot. It infuriates me to feel ashamed of my country’s failure to live up to the promises we’ve made to our allies across the globe!
How many days until we get rid of this clown???
Nov 11, 2009 - 6:54 am 4. William M. Briggs:Plus, we now learn that China is constructing their first aircraft carrier.
It seems likely that China will try to take over Taiwan “peacefully” if possible, slowly encroaching on its possessions and waters, “donating” to certain politicians”, and so forth.
It’s also fair to say that most Americans don’t have a clear idea what Taiwan means to them. Not just militarily, but economically.
A bright spot is that Obama has only three more years (?), coincidentally, the time it’s estimated for China to complete her first carrier.
Nov 11, 2009 - 8:01 am 5. anonymous:The U.S. would NEVER go to war against China to protect Taiwan. Walmart would never allow it.
Nov 11, 2009 - 8:33 am 6. David W. Lincoln:I wonder if Taiwan is open to a pitch to join the British Commonwealth. Because a common foreign policy, as laid out by Conrad Black in “Royalty for a grown up nation” is possible. After all, the
Nov 11, 2009 - 8:53 am 7. arthur:deformed souls, zombies & other ilk calling the shots in the Beijing Politburo bear a remarkable resemblance to those calling the shots inside the Beltway, and the Sons of Allah.
So far no changes since Obama became president. His commitment is to the USA and its Constitution.
Nov 11, 2009 - 9:57 am 8. Liberthsip46:Frankly, I would be surprised if China tried to invade Taiwan. Why should they? All China needs to do is to make Taiwan dependent on them economically and then just blackmail them financially so that they will submit to the mainland. Taiwan will get no military help from the United States. None. The Obama administration has already proved time and again that it is going to avoid conflict, any conflict, with every ounce of energy it has. The Obama administration is doing literally nothing to stop the nuclear programs in both North Korea and Iran. The Obama administration is hoping that if it just talks their opponents to death they will simply give up. As a result, both North Korea and Iran are ignoring the United States and doing whatever they want, which is pursuing a robust nuclear weapons program. Now, before any of you liberal leftists out there start screaming, “Oh, here’s another right-wing nutcase who just wants to start more wars and bomb everybody,” save your breath. I’m not advocating bombing or invading anybody. But there are a host of more powerful positions we can take that would really wreck the economies of both North Korea and Iran without having to resort to war. A naval blockade of Iran (or a “quarantine,” as John Kennedy called it for Cuba) would destroy Iran’s economy in a matter of weeks. Would they retaliate? Maybe, but if they understood, really understood, that for every act of retaliation they made we would up the ante and escalate at our end, they would certainly see the light and back down. Iran knows it cannot win a military confrontation with the United States and that we have the capabilitiy of not only destroying targets within Iran with ships, missiles, and aircraft, but that we could also mine their harbors and stop anything from entering their country by air or sea. That alone should give them pause as to whether or not they want to go head-to-head with us. In the past the only time the Iranians have backed down was when it became clear to them that we would back up our threats with force. A naval blockade, if done right, would destroy their economy without having to invade Iran itself. In the case of either North Korea or Taiwan, we need to go to the Chinese and state bluntly that if they continue trading with North Korea or threaten Taiwan, we will reduce our trade with them. The Chinese would probably threaten us by not wanting to buy any more of our debt. Unfortunately, the Chinese would have just as much to lose from that as we would. The Chinese and American economies are now tied together and unless the Chinese want to commit economic suicide by threatening its best customer, they will decide it’s in their best interest to help us with North Korea and not attack Taiwan. But we have to be firm and we have to be serious about what we say and mean. Unfortunately, we have a president and an administration that thinks empty rehtoric is the answer to everything, which is why Iran eventually will get a nuclear bomb and North Korea will continue threatening its neighbors and providing nuclear technology to unstable nations. Don’t believe me? Then how are those “negotiations” going with Iran these days? Not so good, hmmmm?
Nov 11, 2009 - 10:02 am 9. megapotamus:Hey, Taiwan? We love you but since we are on our own against the Obama Plague you had better believe you can’t count on us when the defecation hits YOUR ossillation. The UK isn’t going to get US aid or even friendship so a thorn in the side of a Commie beast is way down the list. Best hunker and stall for a few years, if possible but I back the analysis above that the threat is not immediate.
Nov 11, 2009 - 10:23 am 10. M. Report:This is not to suggest that China is prepared to attack Taiwan. Such an event would poison Chinese ties to the West and its position in the World Trade Organization.
Agreed; How bad would China’s Western Trade ties
have to get, before they decided to write them off ?
As to those who comment confidently on what China
Nov 11, 2009 - 10:34 am 11. Vega:would not do; Back during the Cold War, when China
and the USSR fell out, A Soviet Diplomat promised
to fight to the last man, and a Chinese Diplomat
replied: Yes, and when the last Russian is dead,
there will still be ten Chinese living.
“bubblehead:
How many days until we get rid of this clown???”
Answer: 1166 days (Jan.20, 2013 minus Nov.11, 2009). That is, at least so many, if some (un)fortunate event would not speed things up and shorten it somehow… Or, if “the clown” and his cronies would not find a trick to keep him in office “forever”!
Nov 11, 2009 - 1:56 pm 12. David W. Lincoln:Libertyship46, I read your missive, and you make sense. However, I challenge you on one point: it is the current government that will not aid Taiwan.
There are people who have to be so disenchanted with the Chief Deformed Soul (aka Barrack Hussein
Obama) in the Oval Office, that an alternative government has to be thought about, and frankly brought into being.
I was one of the people who cheered when http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB1043875685287040744.html came out, and frankly the alternative government is the only group which would regain the trust shown in that
document. Because the current batch of deformed
souls, zombies, and similar ilk, with their paws
on the levers of power inside the Beltway, are as likely to get their acts together, in this regard, as a leopard would change its spots.
Otherwise, whatever influence the US can bring to bear in the geopolitical arena will continue to decline, rendering the US less relevant in the geopolitical arena.
Nov 11, 2009 - 4:22 pm 13. dr strangelove:Considering the “Chi-coms” own trillions of our debt we aren’t going to do anything if they want Taiwan. For that, we can thank the many in Congress who have “served” since 1980.
Nov 11, 2009 - 4:35 pm 14. Ltw:Agree with you completely Herbert – the people who think that a weaker or counterbalanced US will reduce tensions round the globe p!ss me of big time. Take away the power of the US to intervene and all sorts of conflicts will flare up.
Taiwan/China is an interesting case all round though – yes, China still see them as their “recalcitrant province” and part of China and constantly threaten to invade, but doesn’t Taiwan still see themselves as the true government of China also? IIRC, they have (or had till recently) a ritual “we will take back the mainland” speech every year – everyone knows it will never happen but lip service is paid nonetheless. And the one thing they agree on is that Tibet is definitely part of China…
I wouldn’t write off Taiwan even without US carrier support – an amphibious landing is hard at the best of times and the ROC’s ability to close the strait is pretty formidable, they can still maintain air superiority fairly easily and after that it’s game over for the beach head. Of course with China building up a blue water navy that could change.
Nov 11, 2009 - 6:20 pm 15. JFM:but doesn’t Taiwan still see themselves as the true government of China also?
I don’t know about the KMT government but there is a majority of Taiwanese who don’t feel themselves as Chinese and don’t want an union with China whatever the government in China and be it peaceful or not.
Nov 12, 2009 - 2:53 am 16. EDS:“1. cedarhill:
The domino effect is about to occur. As Obama withdraws US support from the world, a series of events will unfold as bad guys become increasingly emboldened. Taiwan, Israel, South America just to name a few.”
Yes, just like what happened in Vietnam!!
Nov 12, 2009 - 7:57 am 17. Blackwell:I care about the interests of the US. That interest is in defending portions of the world that benefit us or which for other reasons, ought to be defended. I don’t see Taiwan as any of those.
The US should not be egged into spending billions and placing US kids from Iowa at risk to defend every piece of land because someone tells us its an affront to us if we don’t.
The 1979 Act does not appear obligate the US do assist Taiwan if its attacked. Section 3302 only says that if Taiwan is at risk, the US will decide in its sole discretion, what it will do.
I fail to see why the US ought to be putting itself out for Taiwan. Does Taiwan have combat troops in Afghanistan or Iraq? Does it not have a “parade army” for show while it devotes enormous time to penetrating US markets for its own enrichment? Has it not delayed foreevr in simply purchasing from the US, jet fighters it needs to defend itself? Does anyone not believe that its wealthy classes would flee the island if it was menaced and expect US troops to fight for it?
Its proximity to China might have been of use in the distant past, it does not appear to have any utility now.
So what is the US interest in extending itself even more to defend this island that bears no resemblance to the Poles, the Brits, Australians, etc who have sent troops –not grudgingly–to combat zones to help?
Nov 12, 2009 - 10:39 am 18. David W. Lincoln:Blackwell, I will answer you succinctly: For the sake of the overlap between “The Crisis” by Thomas Paine, and the Magna Carta.
That is the interest of the United States, the British Commonwealth, and anywhere else that the message of “The Crisis” & the Magna Carta is welcomed.
Nov 12, 2009 - 2:36 pm 19. blackwell:18: David L:
I respect your measured and sober observations, but suspect I am a bit more in line with both reality, Paine and the Magna Carta, George Washington etc., on this one.
Its not the obligation of every US family to furnish a soldier to defend countries that feel they are above such menial tasks, preferring instead, to spread Paine by selling stuff to the US. In a vote on this, I suspect we’d see heavy results favoring intervention for some and not others. Taiwan does not generate emotion or respect as in the cases of say, Israel, Britain, Poland or Australia. Nor does it strike me as having the “they have supported us” “we like them” and “they are important to us” and they will actually defend themselves, as in Kuwait, Germany and Japan.
Nor does Taiwan stike me as a devotee of Paine or the Magna Carta. More of a “we got pushed off the mainland and we have this miserable rock, but if the mainlanders come, we’re on the next boat” type of place. Seen any Taiwanese troops in combat helping the US, Poland, Brits, Aussies, the Germans, some small group of Canadian snipers, etc spread Paine in Afghanistan or Iraq? No? Why? Too busy making money while we do all the heavy lifting.
Nor do I want to borrow more money to defend a place that hasn’t lifted a finger to assist us and would turn tail at the first sign of a Chinese PT Boat.
The US does not have endless resources. The feckless spending of them is not making us stronger. It is moreover, encouraging dry rot amongst places that should spend their own money on defense. Instead, we get the bill, they have the jobs, the health care, and our taxpayers are groaning.
Nov 12, 2009 - 4:59 pm 20. Tresco:The U.S. should see to it that Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan have access to “fast track” nukes. We cannot afford to nor should we have to defend those nations any longer. Their economies have prospered while we paid and even bled for them.
Nov 12, 2009 - 7:53 pm 21. JFM:Mr Blackwell
While Taiwan relies on US intervention in case of a major intervention can you point me to a single case of American blood spent on defending Taiwan? AFAIK, all
incidents involving Chinese troops trying to invade some of the small islands belonging to Taiwan have been handled exclusivly by Taiwan’s armed forces.
Taiwan is not South Korea where it is fashionable to be anti-American all while tens of thousands of Americans felt defending it, lie in their graves.
For democracy the little I know about Taiwan points that it is more of a real democracy than many European countries (who are in fact partitocracies).
However the US has very good reason to help Taiwan: depriving China of getting access to Taiwan’s technology, engineers and scientists.
Nov 13, 2009 - 3:20 am 22. Lalas:There are three countries that are going to stop existing under the new Marxist American President\
Taiwan to China
Israel to the Arabs
Greece to Turkey
Mark my words that if Obama gets a second turn, these countries will be gone!
Nov 13, 2009 - 7:03 am 23. Blackwell:JFM:
I didn’t lament the loss of any US lives defending Taiwan. I said I don’t want to senselessly lose ANY because of a misguided idea that Taiwan is a real “ally” an important place or that it will defend itself. Its none of those.
They have never assisted the US anywhere, any time with combat troops; they lay awake figuring out how to penetrate US markets; the minute its threatened, the rich and middle class will wire their money out and flee, while asking each other “where are the american troops to protect us?”). They dithered for years even trying to scrape up some money to buy fighters for their own use. (”Why spend money on defense? The Americans will do it for us”.)
China has enough technology and whatever it does not have, taiwan will sell to it assuming it hasn’t done so already on the side.
Taiwan has no national traditions. Its like a rented apartment for most of the rich people there: the minute its at risk, they’re gone.
I don’t regret going into Iraq. I am all for a strong military. But I want to spend it on Japan, Australia etc. Places with a national honor and history of defending themselves. The floater idea of defending Taiwan with US soldiers and money is pap for the credulous.
Nov 13, 2009 - 10:19 am 24. JFM:Mr Blackwell
Your description of Taiwanese as people who were pushed out of the mainland only fits the 15% “Chang Kai Tchek Taiwanese”. There are 83% of “pre-japanese-invasion Hans” and 2% aborigines who weren’t happy about Taiwan being handled to China in 1945, weren’t happy about Chaink Kai Check people coming in 1948, were machine-gunned for this, feel Chinese about as much as Americans felt British in 1776 and will have about as few qualm at firing at them.
Nov 14, 2009 - 2:16 am