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Al-Qaeda in Iraq: Determined but Desperate
The anger and frustration evident in its latest missives indicate that al-Qaeda continues to lose allies and ground in Iraq and that time is not on its side.
The latest three messages from al-Qaeda addressing the Sunni community uncover the depth of the crisis that al-Qaeda is facing in its former host community.
The threatening tone of the missives from the alleged Abu Omar Baghdadi and Aby Ayyub, and the insulting tone of the second by Zawahiri, reflect mistrust, anxiety and a dire need to retrieve what was lost.
Death threats do not represent a serious call for cooperation on an achievable objective. This “work-for-me-or-I-kill-you” tone is completely different from the usual recruiting slogans that have focused on the ideology of fighting for absolute truth against absolute evil.
Those slogans have failed, which is why they have been discarded and replaced by threats and an effort to seek out third parties to render verdicts on disagreements, which is what Baghdadi alluded to when he proposed that some (not all!) Sunni clerics come forward to mediate between al-Qaeda and the public.
This call for mediation indicates first, that al-Qaeda has lost direct contact with the public and second, that there are still some clerics involved with al-Qaeda.
This is the main reason why people have abandoned the Association of Muslim scholars and it’s also the reason that moderate Sunni clerics declare war on the organization.
This is also a reason for the conflict between some tribes with some members of the Islamic party. One suspects that a group of the party’s members are essentially stuck with al-Qaeda: they can’t walk away because of the incriminating evidence al-Qaeda has against them and could threaten to expose.
Of course the threatening messages had to be backed with action in order to be taken seriously; the bombings in Mosul, Anbar and Diyala served as the actual bloody part of the message.
Here we can note, however, that the act didn’t match the threat. Instead of killing security forces and “awakening” fighters only (whom al-Qaeda calls collaborators) the murderous crimes reached civilians who had nothing to do with the whole conflict. Although one attack targeted a funeral of two “awakening” members, the actual victims were noncombatant mourners.
These crimes demonstrate that the principles and values that al-Qaeda touted are false and that the old ways have failed. Otherwise al-Qaeda wouldn’t have switched to terrorizing fellow Sunnis instead of promising mansions in heaven and dozens of virgins.
It is worth noting a difference in style: while Baghdadi used threats, al-Zawahiri has instead resorted to insults. By asking “Are these Awakening Councils in need of someone to defend them and protect them?” al-Zawahiri is playing on the sensitivity of the issue of pride.
In Arabic, there are instances in which questions could serve as assertive statements, in this case an insulting one. Basically what he’s saying is “By seeking protection and cooperation from the US military you are behaving like helpless women and children”.
Such an insult directed against tribal warriors hardened by endless wars since 1980 to date could easily infuriate the target audience more than Baghdadi’s threats did.
It is likely the response of the people will be of the scale of al-Qaeda’s crimes and that blood will only bring blood. This is what we saw from the first reaction from sheik Ali Suleiman of the Duleim tribe (the most prominent tribe in Anbar) who said “we’re not going to let them walk out of our land alive” and called Baghdadi’s message “words of a mad man”. This last notion of madness technically indicates that what al-Qaeda is proposing is absolutely nonnegotiable; the sheik didn’t use words like unacceptable, inappropriate, too harsh, too arrogant; he simply called the proposal crazy.
Attacks on civilians are only going to make the “Awakening” warriors more determined to stand their ground and al-Qaeda is only going to get more solid resistance and more enmity from the people in return for keeping this course of action.
The bad news is that the timing of the newest message from Abu Ayyub suggests that Iraq is heading for tough times in the short term.
It appears that Abu Ayyub wants to synchronize his own campaign with that promised by Sadr.
They know that Iraqi army units have been pulled from Anbar and elsewhere to support the fight against Shia militias, meaning that escalation on a second front would make the job of the Iraqi and US military harder.
The messages in words and bombs indicate that al-Qaeda remains determined to fight on the Iraqi front, which Zawahiri once again called “the fortress” of al-Qaeda’s terror campaign and will keep directing resources towards this purpose.
But at the same time, the vocal anger and frustration reveal that al-Qaeda continues to lose allies and ground and that time on the long run is not on its side. Above all it means that those of us determined to fight terrorism must not lose resolve in this critical battle.
Al-Qaeda has made the Iraqi front its physical center of gravity, and so it’s exactly the place where we must fight, and win.
Omar Fadhil is PJM Baghdad editor. His own blog is Iraq The Model.
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21 Comments
1. Bloodthirsty Liberal » Al Qaeda-in-Deep-Doo-Doo:[...] with Al Qaeda in Iraq and Al Qaeda in Maghreb, another off-shoot of the parent corporation: The latest three messages from al-Qaeda addressing the Sunni community [...]
Apr 21, 2008 - 4:16 am 2. Al-Qaeda in Iraq: Determined but Desperate, by Omar Fadhil « Tizona’s Weblog:[...] the rest at, Pajamas Media [...]
Apr 21, 2008 - 6:32 am 3. M. Simon:Have they considered offering bigger mansions and more virgins in heaven? Maybe instead of 50,000 sq ft they could up it to 100,000. Instead of 72 virgins they could offer 144. Of course there is always the problem that if you start inflating the currency it begins to lose its value.
Apr 21, 2008 - 7:10 am 4. Steamboat Jack:If the reader would like more detail as to what is happening locally, here are two web sites of free lance reporters who have been reporting from the area. They support with local detail Mr. Fadhil’s thesis.
http://www.michaeltotten.com/
http://www.michaelyon-online.com/
Also, Michael Yon has just published a book about the action in Iraq.
http://www.michaelyon-online.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=65&Itemid=120
Regards,
Apr 21, 2008 - 8:36 am 5. Valerie:Maybe al-Sadr’s people can do all of Iraq a favor: they can take in Abu Ayyub’s people, and promptly turn them over to the IA!
If Al-Qaeda can manage to survive until the first week in November, they are going to declare victory and a renewed recruiting effort, even if the Republican nominee wins the US presidential election. Perhaps that is part of the reason why sheik Ali Suleiman said “we’re not going to let them walk out of our land alive.”
Iraqis of good will from all the parties should get together and utilize all the resources at their disposal now to secure their country for themselves. They should allow those Iraqis who would break away from Al-Qaeda to do so; they should graciously allow the Madhi Army and other militias to stand down to the extent that they are willing to do so, and they should apply the Iraqi Army to good effect against all rogue militia elements, with the full support of the Coalition. Yes, that will mean headlines about the “increase in violence” in the US media, but that is going to happen, anyway. The Democratic Party needs to see an increase in violence, and it will see such a thing under any circumstances, so there is nothing to be gained by deferring the conflict. Now is a good time to fight, and to lay the foundation for peace. If they can get to the peace without fighting first, I will be very happy about it: I just do not think that will happen.
God bless all those who defend their homes.
Apr 21, 2008 - 8:42 am 6. tanstaafl:These crimes demonstrate that the principles and values that al-Qaeda touted are false and that the old ways have failed. Otherwise al-Qaeda wouldn’t have switched to terrorizing fellow Sunnis instead of promising mansions in heaven and dozens of virgins.
Al Qaeda’s message (rationale) has constantly morphed over the years, as a function of what was (or wasn’t) working.
Associating that group with “principles and values” at all is a bit of a stretch since the arguments simply change with changing circumstances.
Any words uttered or written are simply driven by the goal, the most immediate goal being Radical Islam finding some place in the world to, again, set up shop.
Unfortunately, Somalia (and to some extent, Sudan) look promising.
Apr 21, 2008 - 8:52 am 7. Justin:Re: Simon
It’s a classic bait and switch: Offer the virgins and the mansions, and give them vaporization and decapitation instead. The BBB should really investigate. But in the meantime, offer all they can. They don’t have to buy them for dead people, anyway!
Apr 21, 2008 - 9:37 am 8. Ed Wallis:“M. Simon,” if I understand correctly, there is a valid theological disagreement on whether the – ahem – “relevant”(!) reference implies “virgins” or “raisins.”
It might impact terrorist recruiting success, were more potential recruits aware of this “possibility” of “what awaits them” (for lack of better words).
The Grapes of Wrath indeed….
Apr 21, 2008 - 9:56 am 9. abu al-fin:After the Iraqis are finished hanging the terrorists of al-qaida and Iran (quds), they may wish to look at some contributors to their misery who still walk the halls of the US Congress.
Apr 21, 2008 - 10:47 am 10. shef Rogers:Remember Whack-A-Mole? Smash one and another head pops up. That’s Iraq. We tilted toward the Sunni gangs, and now the Shi’ite gangs are at war. It’s bizarre to focus on how well we’re doing against AQI when the Mehdi Army just defeated “the” Iraqi Army in Sadr City and Basra.
Apr 21, 2008 - 10:47 am 11. Achillea:shef Rogers, what time do the moons rise on your planet? Even the NYT is grudgingly admitting the IA beat the Sadr boys like a red-headed stepchild.
Apr 21, 2008 - 12:47 pm 12. John Samford:shef Rogers, Only if you play by the rules. I have found that a pinch of plastique dropped down one of the holes pretty much takes care of all the moles in one fell swoop. Dynamite will do if you lack the knowledge to make your own plastic explosives.
Apr 21, 2008 - 1:28 pm 13. Christine:This fight is akin to killing weeds. At first, some of them will grow back. But keep at it, eventually they all will be gone.
Weed killer plus fertilizer. Works everytime.
In this case, al-Qaeda is strangling itself. Safer on the environment.
Thanks Omar.
Apr 21, 2008 - 8:53 pm 14. Steve-o:Surely Sod-n-Ash will be along to explain all this, and how AQ will be victorious. Remember them?
Apr 21, 2008 - 11:14 pm 15. Neo-andertal:I think that Al Qaeda in Iraq’s message is tailored more toward the western media than really aimed at the Iraqi population. They won’t make any real headway against the Awakening groups, but if they get their message out and can back it up with a few mass casualty attacks than their cause lives on in the Western Press.
Al Qaeda is biding it’s time and waiting for a political opening to get back into the real game. A premature US withdrawal from Iraq leaving the country vulnerable to infiltration from hostile neighboring countries would provide the needed opening for Al Qaeda in Iraq deal itself back into the game.
Apr 22, 2008 - 6:59 am 16. M.E.:It is natural and logic that “Al-Qaeda has made the Iraqi front its physical centre of gravity” and “it’s exactly the place where we must fight”. The presence of the American troops in Afghanistan and especially in Iraq has broken a system of Islamist terrorism, headed by Al-Qaeda. I read only some extracts from al-Zawahiri’s audio message (AFP and http://jihadwatch.org/). The most significant is this part: “The monitoring service said he called on Muslims to make Iraq a “fortress of Islam” and, underscoring the Sunni Muslim orientation of Al-Qaeda, he referred to a plot against Iraq by the United States together with Shiite Iran, which he said would lead to the Mideast region exploding”. It is possible to see here a rivalry between two terrorist organisations: Sunni Al-Qaeda and Shiite Mahdi Army controlled by Iranians. After losing its main base in Afghanistan, Iraq became for Al-Qaeda the “fortress of Islam”, i.e. a “strategic” place absolutely necessary for its “political survival”. An eloquence of al-Zawahiri confirms a complete defeat of Al-Qaeda in Iraq (it’s clear that this defeat was possible only with a support of local population). The latest “heroic” action of Al-Qaeda (carnage between the simple civilians in a funeral) had only goal to create an appearance to be present on the scene. What about Shiite terrorists? See excellent articles by Michael Ledeen about the Mahdi Army and its “charismatic” Führer Moqtada al Sadr.
Apr 22, 2008 - 7:13 am 17. Brian H:To Steamboat Jack: thank you for additional information.
It is important to remember that there are many layers to Iran’s involvement in Iraq. Here is a partial list off the top:
-Sadr and JAM
-Hakim and BADR/SIIC
-Qods activity against the CG and MNF
-economic ties in the north and south
-arming anyone who wants to cause trouble (including but not limited to AQI) via the “ratlines”
-cat’s paw politicians in the Basra area and in Baghdad (see Sadr and SIIC above, amongst others)
-intimidation of neighbors so that they hold back from constructive involvement in Iraq
-backing Syrian interference
-using Hezbollah and Hamas to train subversives and fighters
More, anyone?
Apr 23, 2008 - 12:09 pm 18. Pros and Cons » A little lift of language in a very serious piece:[...] System – really, that’s the name - is a bit more alarmed. Iraq the Model points out (more at Pajamas Media) that none of this would be possible if Al Qaeda were not getting so very badly [...]
Apr 25, 2008 - 8:26 pm 19. Rob:Things in Iraq go well.
Apr 26, 2008 - 5:28 pm 20. jules:Even though it has taken much longer than it should have.
We have been very lucky.
Sistani has been one of the keys, preaching civil government and avoiding control by the extremist Iranian religious leadership.
Head of the civilian Iraqi government, Maliki and his military have also suddenly come into their own, pushing a showdown with the Sadr and Iranian controlled militias and sparking a move towards a unified moderate political center.
Of course the courage and steadfastness of our military has tended to make its own luck. Al Qaeda has shown its true nature and is now unwelcome in Iraq just as it is unwelcome in Afghanistan.
Iran has tried the same tactics that worked for it in Lebanon and now with Hamas in Gaza. However, in Basra these Sadrists and Iranian Special Groups are being flushed out and rolled up.
This is what winning looks like.
Our military has been magnificent.
Iraqis are cleansing their country of these terrorists and thugs.
The future suddenly looks much brighter.
Things go well, we have been very “lucky”.
re: abu al-fin, Apr 21, 2008 – 10:47 am
“After the Iraqis are finished hanging the terrorists of al-qaida and Iran (quds), they may wish to look at some contributors to their misery who still walk the halls of the US Congress.”
Amen to that!
Apr 27, 2008 - 4:57 pm 21. Jules Crittenden » Smoke = Fire?:[...] Omar of Iraq the Model at Pajamas explores the question: Are al-Sadr and al Qaeda teaming up in Iraq? Also, Omar’s thoughts last week re AQ woes in Iraq. [...]
Apr 28, 2008 - 8:21 am