As Bullets Fly, Lebanese Ask, “What Happens Next?”
Will the past five days of violence escalate into another full-blown civil war? Lebanese are watching and waiting anxiously.
After five days of chaos, Lebanese are asking, “What happens next?”
The pro-government March 14 Coalition refused to fight Hezbollah and its militant cronies in Beirut.
The coalition, named after the anti-Syrian/ anti-Hezbollah demonstrations in Beirut on 14 March 2005
that overthrew the Syrian stranglehold on Lebanon, hoped to prove that the opposition parties are mere brigands who use violence to subvert democracy.
The government’s strategy worked. Hezbollah, the Shia Amal Movement, and the anti-Semitic fascist Syrian Social National Party fired rocket-propelled grenades, tripod mounted machine guns, and small arms, and blocked off streets in Beirut, intimidating residents and imprisoning them. Much of the Lebanese population, and particularly
the residents of Beirut, were appalled by the opposition’s coup.
Many, such as myself, headed for safer ground. I wrote my previous dispatch crouched in a tub, avoiding sniper fire. I’m writing this piece from the Christian suburbs north of Beirut. The violence in West Beirut generally ended on Friday night, but brigands roamed the street. Saturday morning, residents left got to leave their houses for the first time in days to buy supplies. However, by afternoon the situation once again became tense and masked gunmen returned to the streets. Two friends called me, and we jumped in a taxi to go across the city. We passed gunmen on our ways and drove down many one way streets to weave our way through roadblocks and destruction.The government did not fight back because: 1) it does not believe that civil war will solve Lebanon’s problems in the long-term, and 2) They cannot win a fight in Beirut against Hezbollah, the only civil war era militia allowed to keep its weapons during the Syrian occupation of Lebanon. It continues to receive over $1 billion a year from Iran.
The parties in the 14 March Coalition would have trouble competing with the elite paramilitary forces of the oil-financed Iranian government who honed their skills against the Israeli Defense Forces, one of the most skilled armies in the world.
Hezbollah realized it failed to mount the coup it intended. They could not claim victory over rival political parties and the citizens who provided those parties with a parliamentary majority if those parties did not fight. The only thing Hezbollah proved was that they are willing to undermine the symbols of stability in the nation – the Lebanese presidency, Army and security forces – and that they are willing to use their weapons against other Lebanese, something Hezbollah denied they would do for 20 years.
In order to provoke the response they thought they would get in Beirut, Hezbollah attacked the mountainous Druze strongholds in Aley and Choueifat. The Druze community chose to fight and protect their areas. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt ordered his men not to fight, but the Druze on the frontline refused to back down until after 6pm on
Sunday. The Druze killed and captured many Hezbollah fighters, and advanced down the mountain towards Hezbollah’s stronghold in the southern suburbs of Beirut.
The fight did not continue because Walid Jumblatt and March 14 leaders believe Lebanon is not prepared for a full-scale civil war. A war would provide the Syrian government with ample reason to re-invade. Most of the present leaders of Lebanon fought in the Lebanese civil war, thus they know the consequences of their actions. They know that the support other countries are willing to provide does not compare to the amount the Syrians are willing to expend to control Lebanon. They know that Hezbollah’s arch-enemy Israel is fully willing to cooperate with the Syrian regime, which has experience manipulating Israel’s constantly changing democratic leadership. Israel and Syria, despite
occupying geographically contiguous areas during the Lebanese civil war, never fought. The Syrian/Israeli border is one of the most peaceful in the Middle East.
The March 14 Coalition used democratic means to go on the offensive against Hezbollah. They provoked Hezbollah into this confrontation which manifested Hezbollah’s true intentions and put Hezbollah into an
extremely awkward position.
What comes next is unknown.
Will Hezbollah strategize with the Syrians and Iranians? Definitely.
Will the Arab League, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt finally do something to further isolate regimes that provoke chaos in the region? Probably not. A lot of words will be spoken, but the few actions that follow
will not do enough.
Will the democratic world decide that it is time to enforce United Nations resolutions and take decisive action in accordance with their high-minded, well articulated philosophies? Definitely not. The West will provide band-aids of support where invasive surgery is necessary.
What will the government and March 14 Coalition do? They will negotiate with Hezbollah, concede some ground, and continue to strengthen the institutions of the Lebanese state. The United States, French, and others are training the Lebanese Army and Internal Security Forces how to properly do their jobs after 30 years of intentional Syrian neglect.
The March 14 Coalition is in an awkward position. The parties that make up the parliamentary majority that controls the government cannot undermine government institutions to fight a war against Hezbollah. If they want to maintain legitimacy, they cannot allow sectarian militias to send the country back into chaos and prevent sectarian
reconciliation from ever occurring. They must find a solution that meets the demands of all Lebanese, and that is reasonable given the amount of Syrian/Iranian interference and Arab/Western reticence.
Of course, there might not be a democratic, peaceful solution. A few days of calm are needed to assess what just happened. What comes next is not known, but civil war is definitely an option.
Charles Chuman is a media and political analyst currently in Beirut.
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7 Comments
1. moose:“Israel and Syria, despite
occupying geographically contiguous areas during the Lebanese civil war, never fought”
REALLY ?
Never heard of the “Bekaa Valley Turkey Shoot?”
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/archive/index.php/t-14826.html
These tired old conspiracy theories are what keeps Lebanon in the mess it is in. More interesting than Israel’s supposed “alliance” with Syria, is Lebanon’s actual, ongoing official state of war with Israel, one that Israel does not want, one that March 14 continues to pay lip service to, even as it provides a pretext for Hezbollahs’ very existence.
May 12, 2008 - 2:52 am 2. dan:Lebanon is not ready for a full-scale war against Hezbollah? Why? What exactly are these other parties doing while Hezbollah arms and maneuvors? I don’t understand Arab culture, whatever its confession/ethnicity. It’s incredible how every week we get more and more evidence of why these people have been ruled from outside for the vast of majority of the time they haven’t been simply ignored or forgotten. What fool believes this idiot Orientalism thesis anymore? Is it really any wonder we should have to now step in and attempt to reorganize the place, when their incompetent adoption of the trappings of modernity which a child would choose threaten to inflict this primitive factional fratricide and sluttish fantasia on the rest of us? Idiocy upon idiocy, abetted by cowardice. What a spectacle.
May 12, 2008 - 4:55 am 3. John Samford:“The government’s strategy worked. Hezbollah, the Shia Amal Movement, and the anti-Semitic fascist Syrian Social National Party fired rocket-propelled grenades, tripod mounted machine guns, and small arms, and blocked off streets in Beirut, intimidating residents and imprisoning them.”
Is that what you call working? I guess that means filling up slit trenches with bodies is the epitome of success? Must be a Mid-Eastern thing.
May 12, 2008 - 4:33 pm 4. Sonar:Here in the civilized world, when armed gunmen attack the government, success is either killing them or putting them in prison for an extended period of time. You should try it. All it takes is a little courage.
Hezballah exists to attack Israel.
Since their last conflict, Hezballah has been accumulating munitions for their next attack on Israel.
This conflict is not the time and place of Hizballah’s choice, rather it is reaction to the Lebanese government’s assertion of sovereignty.
Given the inevitability of a Hezballah Israel conflict, is now a good time for Israel?
May 14, 2008 - 10:52 am 5. Patrick:I’m going to bet the endgame here goes something like this; Israel will own the southern half of Lebanon, Syria the northern half and the line of division will be somewhere just north of Jounieh on the coast to just north of Zahle (including the military airfield of Rayak.)
This will give Israel a super artillery position only 15 miles and some change at the closest approach to the Syrian capital of Damascus.
Points to ponder; What will happen to the Palestinian refugees in the camps in Bir Hassan and Ashrafieh etc. in the south?
Syria will definately annex their part, but will Israel officially annex theirs?
Will the Casino du Liban remain open under Israeli authority?
Most Lebanese with any means/money will have or are in the process of fleeing I’m sure. They did this during the civil war in the 70’s and 80’s. So with most of the intelligencia gone, along with the premier business folks gone, and the other rich Arabs not going to Lebanon to play anymore cuz they built their own Disneyland in the Gulf, I don’t see much future for Lebanon as anything but an historical footnote, kinda like Ifni or the Buchananland Protectorate etc.
May 14, 2008 - 8:06 pm 6. lollollol:My, My, Charles Chuman is employed by “good” company, no? He is an Israeli spy pretending to be Lebanese- please read his bio from the IDF Military-Defense Center that plans all Israel’s wars and the PNAC plan, etc. Very interesting.
BIOGRAPHIES HERZLIYA CONFERENCE
Prof. Uzi Arad, Head and Founder, Institute for Policy and Strategy, IDC Herzliya
http://www.herzliyaconference.org/_Uploads/2257Bios.pdf
Founding Director of the prestigious Institute for Policy and Strategy of the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya,
Professor Uzi Arad is a well-respected figure in foreign policy, security and strategic circles. As the Institute,
he established and chairs the Annual Herzliya Conference Series on Israel’s Balance of National Security.
Professor Arad also founded and chairs the Atlantic Forum of Israel. Recently, Professor Arad was
empowered to assemble and nominated to char the Presidential World Jewish Forum. After twenty-five years
of distinguished service in the Mossad, Israel’s Secret Intelligence Service, during which he served in senior
positions in Israel and abroad, culminating in his tenure as Director of Intelligence (at a Major General rank),
Professor Arad was appointed by then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to serve as his Foreign Policy
Advisor. After retiring from the civil service, Professor Arad was appointed by the Council of the European
Union to establish and direct the EU-Israel Forum. Today, Professor Arad is the Advisor of the Knesset
Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. Prior to his career in government, Professor Arad was a
Professional Staff Member with the Hudson Institute in New York and Research Fellow at Tel Aviv
University’s Center for Strategic Studies. Professor Arad received his Bachelor’s Degree from Tel Aviv
University. In 1971, he was awarded a Fulbright Fellowship for advanced studies at Princeton University,
where he earned his M.A. and Ph.D. degrees in International Relations.
Hayim Azses, Educational Director, Sephardic Educational Center
Hayim Azses is the founder and former director of the Kiryat Moriah Educational Center and of the Youth
Department European Desk. Hayim Azses has extensive experience in the field of educational and leadership
training, directing many projects at the Education Department of the Jewish Agency. He completed BA
degrees in Middle Eastern Affairs, French Literature, Economics and English Literature at the Hebrew
university. Hayim also studied at the Istanbul University and the Sorbonne in Paris, Hayim has published
extensively. His works include anthologies, activity books, films, and audiovisual kits for educators.
Dr. Mitchell Bard, Executive Director, American Israeli Cooperative Enterprise,
Mitchell Bard is the Executive Director of the nonprofit American-Israeli Cooperative Enterprise (AICE) and
one of the leading authorities on U.S.-Middle East policy. Dr. Bard is also the director of the Jewish Virtual
Library (www.JewishVirtualLibrary.org), the world’s most comprehensive online encyclopedia of Jewish
history and culture. Dr. Bard’s work has been published in academic journals, magazines and major
newspapers. He has written and edited17 books, including Myths And Facts: A Guide to the Arab-Israeli
Conflict, The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Middle East Conflict and 1001 Facts Everyone Should Know About
Israel. His newest book, Will Israel Survive? is due out in Spring 2007.
Noam Bedein, Sderot Media Center
After a year of seminary study, three years of Israel army service on the Lebanese border and a year´s trek
around Asia, Noam Bedein moved to Sderot to study at the Business School of the Sapir College Branch of
Ben-Gurion University. He currently works at the new Sderot Media Information Center for the Western
Negev Region of Israel.
Charles Chuman, Lebanese Political Journal
May 30, 2008 - 1:10 am 7. Metoo:Charles Chuman is the editor of the Lebanese Political Journal. He liveblogged the July 2006 war from
Beirut, having previously liveblogged the Cedar Revolution from Martyrs’ Square. He worked in the pan-
Arab television market as director of market strategy for Signal One Media, and has extensive experience in
the Emirati, Iraqi, Jordanian, and Lebanese markets. He is also involved in political consulting.
lollollol, you’re so funny. So Chuman is a spy because you saw it… in a public webpage? Some cover agent, eh?
May 30, 2008 - 1:26 am