Assad Rides the Iranian Gravy Train
Why are these men smiling? PJM Iran analyst Meir Javedanfar says it's because Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad has just made a worthwhile investment and Syrian president Bashar Assad is enjoying a windfall - a billion dollars from Iran to Syria -- payment for refusing to talk peace.
Despite his harsh words and hostile political posturing, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad likes to smile and laugh, and is known for making little jokes with young reporters.
During his trip to Damascus last Thursday, Ahmadinejad wasn’t just smiling - he was glowing. His body language radiated enjoyment and affection, especially when he saw Hassan Nasr’allah, the head of Hezbollah.
Ahmadinejad had every reason to be happy. He was relieved. The background: recently, Iran had begun to worry about Syria’s peaceful gestures towards Israel. All of a sudden, the Syrians were openly calling for talks with Israel, in direct contrast to their previous promises to Iran that they would never make peace with the Zionist enemy until the Golan has been handed back. Things got particularly bad for Iran when the Syrians even said those talks could take place without preconditions. Conservatives in Iran felt abandonment set in. Damascus started looking like a two-faced friend, ready to dump Iran and its years of military and financial assistance, for the greener pastures of peaceful relations with the West and Israel.
To Ahmadinejad’s joy, the peace gestures went nowhere. The West did not take Assad’s calls for talks seriously because of his continued support of Hezbollah and Hamas. Furthermore, Ehud Olmert’s weak position at home following the Lebanon war meant that even if he did come to an agreement with Assad, he would most probably not be able to deliver.
Still, the Iranians were so worried about losing Damascus, that according to a report from Sharq Al Wassat newspaper, during the recent visit, they agreed to provide Syria with $1 billion worth of military equipment from their own stocks and also with purchases from Russia and North Korea. Furthermore Iran also agreed to provide assistance to Syria’s nuclear research program.
Although Iran seems to be paying through the nose for its friendship with Syria, for now, Tehran has no other choice. Iran is becoming more isolated every day. Its deterrence policy relies heavily on its relationship with Hezbollah and its ability to strike at Israel. If Iran lost Syria as an ally, it would be far more difficult to supply Hezbollah with weapons. This is something Iran can ill afford now. Perhaps when it has real nuclear capability, it will not need to panic so much.
But for now, a billion dollars maybe a worthwhile investment in Iran’s efforts to scare the West away from an attack against its nuclear installations.
On the surface, it seems that the Syrians did well out of this whole deal. They got someone else to bankroll the purchase of much-needed weapons.
The reason they got such a good deal is because Iran’s position is weak. It has no one else to turn to.
However if and when Iran’s position does improve, whether it is because of nuclear advancement, or unexpected improvement in relations with the West, it is very likely that the Iranians will return to ask for more bang for their buck. The Syrians should realize that the Iranian gravy train will not go forever.
Iran also has bones to pick with Damascus, notably over its support for Sunni militants who cross its border into Iraq, and murder thousands of Iraqi Shiites, who Iran views as its allies.
Sooner or later, Syria will have to start paying a higher price for its friendship with Iran by reducing its assistance for these militants.
It may seem like a nice gift for now, but the $1 billion assistance package from Tehran may very well turn into an Iranian leash for Syria in the near future. There’s no such thing as a free lunch.
Meir Javedanfar is the co-author of the book %%AMAZON=0786718870 “The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran - Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the State of Iran.%%” He runs Middle East Economic and Political Analysis (Meepas)
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1 Comment
1. Bill:Ezekiel 38 is just around the corner. Russia announced in February that it would begin making deliveries of nuclear fuel to Iran, and that it had to decided to throw it’s support to Hamas. The first part of June it did start making deliveries of nuclear fuel, and Hamas overthrew Fatah in the Gaza the same week. It would seem that some people would start to wake up. Russia is making no secret about what it is doing. Ahmadinejad makes no secret his intentions. God knew about it all and foretold what is just to come over 2600 years ago. You would think that people would repent and believe the Gospel! Turn to Christ and thrown themselves upon His mercy. No, they are willingly ignorant, unconcerned and indifferent to the things of God. As it was in the days of Noah: “For as in the days that were before the flood they were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, until the day that Noe entered into the ark, And knew not until the flood came, and took them all away; so shall also the coming of the Son of man be.” Mt. 24:38 & 39
Jul 23, 2007 - 5:22 pm