Barr ‘Underdog’ at Libertarian Convention
Pundits believe that Libertarian Bob Barr could siphon votes away from John McCain in November. But first he must secure his new party's nomination — which will be no easy task.
Former Rep. Bob Barr will be an “underdog” for the Libertarian Party presidential nomination going into this week’s convention in Denver, the ex-Republican’s campaign manager said Monday.
“We definitely don’t expect to win it on the first ballot,” said Russ Verney, the Barr manager who shepherded Ross Perot’s third-party bids in 1992 and 1996. “The other [Libertarian] candidates have been out there recruiting delegates for over a year. Bob just declared his candidacy last week, so he’s definitely the underdog.”
After days of telephone calls soliciting support among LP delegates, Barr’s backers say that when the convention begins Thursday, they will be ready for a tough contest against a crowded field of Libertarian hopefuls, with several rounds of balloting likely.
“We’ll be ahead on the first ballot, but not enough to win,” said a key Barr campaign operative, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Barr confirmed that assessment on Monday, saying in a brief phone interview that his campaign was prepared to contend for the nomination through multiple ballots during Sunday’s vote at the Denver convention.
Phone surveys of delegates and state party leaders indicate Barr would get between 30 and 35 percent of the first-ballot vote, his supporters say. With a majority of delegates needed to secure the nomination in a party that doesn’t choose its candidate by primary votes, multiple rounds of balloting are not unusual at LP conventions. The party’s 2004 nominee, Michael Badnarik, scored a third-ballot win after trailing on the first two rounds of voting in Atlanta.
“It’s not a situation where you’ve got pledged delegates, like the Democrats and Republicans,” Verney said.
While the Barr campaign remains confident their candidate will ultimately win the nomination, the former Georgia congressman faces serious opposition from Libertarian rivals including Las Vegas oddsmaker Wayne Allyn Root, longtime LP activists Mary Ruwart and George Phillies, and ex-Democrat Sen. Mike Gravel of Alaska.
Libertarian ‘opportunity’
Despite Verney’s “underdog” assessment, Georgia LP chairman Daniel N. Adams said Barr is “definitely the favorite” in Denver. A Barr backer, Adams said he expects that many of Root’s supporters would be willing to back Barr in later rounds of balloting.
“I can’t believe they’d miss this opportunity,” Adams said, describing Barr’s potential to boost the November vote for a party that currently has to devote much of its organizing effort to gathering petition signatures necessary to get listed on state ballots. “If he gets 5 percent, you’re talking about guaranteed ballot access in 12 more states. That would be huge.”
Barr served four terms in Congress but lost the 2002 GOP primary to Rep. John Linder after a Democrat-controlled state legislature redrew the boundaries of Georgia’s 7th District. Barr joined the Libertarians in 2006 and served as the party’s Southeast regional coordinator until April, when he announced the formation of his presidential exploratory committee. He officially declared his candidacy May 12.
A former U.S. attorney, Barr was one of the most outspoken and media-savvy conservatives elected in 1994, when Republicans led by Newt Gingrich used their “Contract With America” agenda to capture control of the House for the first time in 40 years.
Barr gained notoriety by calling for the impeachment of President Clinton even before revelations of the Monica Lewinsky affair, and was one of the House Republicans subsequently appointed to present the case against Clinton to the Senate.
‘A bloody fight’
Since Barr went public with his presidential plans last month, most in the political press have treated his LP nomination as a certainty, casting him as a potential spoiler for Republican Sen. John McCain’s campaign. The Philadelphia Inquirer described Barr as McCain’s “worst nightmare,” while George Will wrote in an April column for Newsweek that Barr could hurt McCain as badly as Ralph Nader hurt Democrat Al Gore in 2000.
However, with a few exceptions — including David Weigel, a writer for the libertarian journal Reason — political reporters have not examined the challenges Barr will face in Denver.
Because of his conservative past and relatively recent switch from the GOP, Barr is viewed with suspicion or hostility by many longtime LP members. At the North Carolina state party convention last month, Barr got only one vote in a straw poll that was won handily by Ruwart. (Noting that Ruwart had been active for many years in the North Carolina LP before moving to Texas, one libertarian wit dubbed the Tarheel State “Ruwartistan.”)
Under the rules governing the Libertarian nomination process, with unpledged delegates chosen by state party conventions, no candidate is expected to have a first-ballot majority. The field will be winnowed down as candidates are eliminated, with their supporters shifting to the remaining candidates.
“We’re cautiously optimistic,” the anonymous Barr operative said, but added that he expects a “bloody fight” in Sunday’s vote, possibly stretching into “the wee hours” of Monday morning.
Adams said he expects the contest to be waged between Libertarian “purists” who fault Barr for his conservatism and “pragmatists” who see the benefit of nominating a nationally known candidate with proven political ability. That ability will be tested in Denver, where the Barr campaign — which has raised more than $100,000 according to the campaign’s official website — plans to field a team of floor managers and whips to gather delegates.
“I think the Libertarian Party’s going to see what organization looks like,” the Georgia LP chairman said.
Robert Stacy McCain, a frequent contributor to The American Spectator, is co-author (with Lynn Vincent) of Donkey Cons: Sex, Crime, and Corruption in the Democratic Party. He blogs at The Other McCain.
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21 Comments
1. Rob:“Borat” Bob Barr? media savvy? Ya gotta be kidding me.
May 20, 2008 - 5:09 pm 2. David Thomson:I cannot imagine Bob Barr significantly harming John McCain. No, he is going to primarily get the anti-war vote. Some people think he will actually hurt Obama. I tend to agree with them.
Please also note that Robert Stacy McCain is the co-author of the fantastic Donkey Cons. This is a must read book. I thought so highly of it that I wrote a brief Amazon.com customer review of Donkey Cons. The authors provide abundant evidence that deceitfulness is perhaps the norm for the “elites” of the Democratic Party.
May 20, 2008 - 7:03 pm 3. Mr Ed:I may vote for Barr if he is on the ballot. It’s either that or vote for no one for president. I absolutely refuse to be boxed in once again and have to vote for a non conservative conservative, McCain. I will NOT be fooled by any of McCain’s scripted entreaties claiming that he will appoint conservative judges, etc. McCain has ZERO credibility with me. I have discovered my own “maverick” status, and liberal/moderate Republicans will do without my money or vote.
At least Barr hasn’t accused me of being a nativist racist, blah blah blah.
May 21, 2008 - 4:50 am 4. DrKrbyLuv:As a true conservative republican I can’t vote for McCain for some of the same reasons mentioned above by Mr Ed. And, I will not vote for any GOP neocons, especially the eco-neocon McCain!
We can’t afford another neocon president like Bush who don’t realize that a strong economy and currency make us more secure.
If it takes a presidential loss in November to wake the republican party up, then so be it.
May 21, 2008 - 6:34 am 5. Will Barr win the LP Nomination? | Peach Pundit:[...] this week, but it’s not a forgone conclusion. As Robert Stacey McCain points out in this article, Barr’s candidacy presents the LP with a tough choice. Because of his conservative past and [...]
May 21, 2008 - 7:17 am 6. SwingShiftCEO:Wayne Allyn Root FTW! Flat Tax and Term Limits FTW!
May 21, 2008 - 8:43 am 7. MarkD:Yeah, that strategy worked so well against Bill Clinton.
He’s gone, you say. The judges he appointed are still there. Like Kelo? Go ahead, don’t vote for McCain. You’ll be living a lot of similar decisions after Obama’s done.
May 21, 2008 - 8:43 am 8. Third Party Watch » Blog Archive » Update on the Vast Right Ring (within the LP) Conspiracy:[...] case anyone missed this gem, Robert Stacy McCain is now referring to Bob Barr as an underdog in the Libertarian Party [...]
May 21, 2008 - 9:02 am 9. Ron Paul Blog - Gravel Is No Libertarian:[...] what most of the big media types seem to think, Bob Barr doesn’t have the LP nomination wrapped up. From what I can tell (mostly by reading the opinions of those who actually cover/participate in LP [...]
May 21, 2008 - 10:35 am 10. Barr ‘Underdog’ at Libertarian Convention. Pundits believe that Libertarian Bob Barr could siphon votes away from John McCain in November. But first he must secure his new party’s nomination — which will be no easy task. « Tizona’s:[...] Pajamas Media [...]
May 21, 2008 - 10:46 am 11. United Liberty » Blog Archive » Reason on the “Take Over”:[...] plan to get the Libertarian Party more money, attention, and votes. Yes, this is a terrible threat. Stacy McCain has more on why, even without the churning rumor mill, activist LP skepticism is keeping the race wide open [...]
May 21, 2008 - 6:02 pm 12. News » And the winner is…:[...] state delegates will meet in Denver to conclude a contentious competition and nominate a presidential candidate. No, it’s not the Democratic National [...]
May 22, 2008 - 8:09 am 13. john:Conservatives must unite and vote for McCain. I disagree with him on a lot of issues but I agree with him just enough to give him the vote. I lived through the Carter years, I remember how it was and Obama is going to be much much worse. Please rethink what you’re doing before deciding against McCain.
May 22, 2008 - 11:56 am 14. Terrell:I just found out about Barr. I have always been a conservative. I believe that no real conservative can stomach a vote for McCain. Barr is this nations only hope for a consevative. He will receive my vote.
May 23, 2008 - 7:18 am 15. JOHN:If the conservatives split their vote then Obama will be the next President. GOD help us all. I hope you real conservative enjoy the double-digit unemployment and sky-high taxes.
May 23, 2008 - 2:18 pm 16. Orson:I am a neo-libertarian (ie, one sympathetic to neocoons views-but in terms of national self-interest instead of their stupid altruism uber alles!). But I will not vote for McCain. I sported a “McCain? MUTINY!” sticker this winter…So this convention matters to me. A libertarian before I am anythying else!
May 23, 2008 - 5:22 pm 17. stencil:“Like Kelo? Go ahead, don’t vote for McCain.”
What possible reason could anyone have for believing that McCain will nominate strict constructionists to any judicial post? And that once nominated they will be approved by the Senate?
May 24, 2008 - 8:44 am 18. southernyankee:Voting on that basis is like flapping your arms in November to counteract next October’s hurricanes. In theory it could work.
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I wish Bob Barr would emphasize that he is entering the race to WIN the presidency, not just be a spoiler like Ross Perot. He has my vote if he displays a winning attitude. Otherwise, I will either not vote or hold my nose and vote for RINO McCain.
May 24, 2008 - 11:18 am 19. Michael Micelli:“It is healthy for a sociaty to vote for the right person no matter how slim his chances of winning are, because the publicity will put the masses on the right track for the future to enjoy.” Quote from the World Think Tank at titlemike.ws The right person for the job is defently Wayne Allyn Root. This man will someday be the best President the U.S. ever had. Before you laugh him off check out his website at rootforamerica.com
May 24, 2008 - 11:14 pm 20. A.M. Mallett:The whole notion that Bob Barr is a libertarian is completely asinine. I consider myself somewhat libertarian albeit in a economically conservative manner much in the vein of a Buckley. Barr is a social conservative who has been very much the opposite of a social libertarian. His quest is that of one craving attention and it is my hope for the good of the country and the Republican Party, that Barr is refused that place on their ticket if there is one. We had a spoiler hand the Presidency to a Democrat for eight years. The country deserves better than watching Bob Barr inflate his minuscule ego in his battle against the Republican Party..
May 25, 2008 - 8:57 am 21. ReCon USMC:Bob Barr can Hurt Mc Cain some in a tight election but Ross Perot killed Robert Dole and Bush 41.
Aug 12, 2008 - 8:50 amBill Clinton won by the lowest total ever getting 42 % and change % of the vote .
Perot go 19.% and change and Bush 41 got 37 % .
Remember Ralph [green peace }Nader hurt Gore and Kerry a little as well .
Now if Hillary will just run as a feminist Independent VS Oboma !
My side will dance in the street .