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Bogus Poll Intended to Boost Obama
The recent Washington Post-ABC poll is a textbook example of how partisan media outlets manipulate "news."
As we enter into the final month of the election, we will be bombarded with all sorts of information intended to sway our votes. We will, of course, be inundated with television commercials, direct mail pieces, radio ads, and automated phone calls. But we will also be subjected to numerous polls, many of which will be just as partisan as the political propaganda the candidates are relying upon.
A disturbing trend in recent elections has been the intentional use of skewed polling by the media to promote their ideological bent rather than to report the news. We got another dose of this biased effort to twist the news to the liking of the media giants just this week with the latest Washington Post-ABC poll, which “revealed” that Barack Obama has moved to a nine-point lead over John McCain in the presidential race. The mainstream media breathlessly reported this information as indicative of McCain’s loss of campaign steam after the post-convention bounce and the recent euphoria over Sarah Palin.
But what the news outlets failed to report in their coverage about the Washington Post-ABC poll was the fact that 38% of the individuals who made up the poll identified themselves as Democrats, while only 28% identified themselves as Republicans. (See poll question #901.) Not surprisingly, a poll of mostly Democrats revealed that most of them wanted Democrat Barack Obama to be president rather than Republican John McCain. (Last month, the same poll used a 13-point edge for the Democrats among likely voters to produce similar results heading into the conventions.) The heavily skewed partisan nature of the poll is the real story, not the bogus numbers produced as a result of what is essentially a “push poll.”
The poll tweaked the numbers in Obama’s favor in other ways as well. Even the so-called “independents” that comprised the poll were actually more partisan than independent. When asked towards which political party they “lean,” the independents who replied “Democrat” outnumbered those who responded “Republican” by an 18% margin! (See poll question #904.) That’s not a lean; that’s a landslide — yet it only produced a nine-point lead for Obama.
Also, the poll questioned a lot more women than men. In fact, the gender gap was eight points. Women are expected to vote in slightly larger numbers than men this year, but not by a 54 to 46 margin! Because Democrats have consistently enjoyed a bit of a gender advantage with women voters, this margin gives Obama’s poll numbers a significant boost.
The poll also admits to “over-sampling” the percentage of black voters. With Obama pulling about 95% of the black vote, do you think that might help his numbers a bit? All of these tweaks and subtle nudges of the numbers were intended to produce a desired result, rather than providing voters with an accurate snapshot of public opinion.
The Washington Post-ABC poll is a textbook example of how mainstream media outlets driven by ideological zeal and a pro-Obama bias can “create” the news and then “report” it. It is also a good reminder that voters should be extremely wary of almost all polling that will be reported during the coming weeks.
Steve Gill is a political analyst and statewide radio talk host in Tennessee. His website is www.gillreport.com.
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111 Comments
1. tomw:Mr. Gill, its called random sampling. Sometimes you get more men than women, sometimes more dems than republicans. So do think a better polling method would be to make sure you have a 50/50 split dem/republican? Do you not see the flaw in that method? What if there just are more people who identify themselves as democrat?
Sep 25, 2008 - 12:37 pm 2. proud elitist:Even if the polling is from FOXNews?
Barack Obama has recaptured the lead — 45 percent to 39 percent — over John McCain in the presidential race, according to a FOX News poll released Wednesday.
—-
Sep 25, 2008 - 12:39 pm 3. proud elitist:What if it is a FOXNews poll?
Barack Obama has recaptured the lead — 45 percent to 39 percent — over John McCain in the presidential race, according to a FOX News poll released Wednesday.
—-
“John McCain – Ready to lie on Day One.” — Real Time with Bill Maher
Sep 25, 2008 - 12:41 pm 4. Bloodthirsty Liberal » Poll Fault:[...] What the hell is that about? We got another dose of this biased effort to twist the news to the liking of the media giants just this week with the latest Washington Post-ABC poll, which “revealed” that Barack Obama has moved to a nine-point lead over John McCain in the presidential race. The mainstream media breathlessly reported this information as indicative of McCain’s loss of campaign steam after the post-convention bounce and the recent euphoria over Sarah Palin. [...]
Sep 25, 2008 - 12:41 pm 5. Robert Hurley:Talk about wishful thinking!
Sep 25, 2008 - 12:42 pm 6. Bogus Poll Intended to Boost Obama « Count Us Out:[...] http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/bogus-poll-intended-to-boost-obama/ [...]
Sep 25, 2008 - 12:52 pm 7. Eric:Yes, we all know how the MSM manipulates polling techniques/percentages/projections to create a compelling narrative. It works both for and against each side.
Sep 25, 2008 - 12:54 pm 8. Big Ed:What about the new Zogby 48-46 in favor of McCain?
Sep 25, 2008 - 1:00 pm 9. Piledriver:And, as to the Fox poll. “Opinion Dynamics” does thier polls, and leans 3-4 poins Dem… They are seperate from Fox, and are contrracted by them to do polls.
Today’s Gallup Poll, dead even @ 46% apiece
Sep 25, 2008 - 1:03 pm 10. jake:The media has gone into reporting out right false hoods. You can not trust them or any fool who would advertise in their rags. If they can silence talk radio they think they will sell more papers. Freedom of the press in not meant for a propaganda machine of the left wing fruits and nuts. I boycot all advetisers in their rags. Fact 685 of the media is gay. Fact 955 are left wing demos. Consider the source. I rather hear a cow fart then their rambling of the news
Sep 25, 2008 - 1:08 pm 11. Zelsdorf Ragshaft III:The only poll that counts is conducted November 4. With McCain we get to keep the 50 white stars on a field of blue on our flag. If Obama wins, we can replace the stars with little red hammers and cycles. Bill Ayers will be chief of staff.
Sep 25, 2008 - 1:08 pm 12. tomw:It’s called a sickle. Hammer and sickle.
Sep 25, 2008 - 1:17 pm 13. proud elitist:Here’s Real Clear Politics link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
As shown in the RCP assemblage, the average for dates 09/18 – 09/24 are as follows:
Obama – 47.8 (Obama +3.2)
McCain – 44.6
Piledriver: Rasmussen, with same sample dates has +900 more in sampling and says Obama 49% McCain 46%…
Sep 25, 2008 - 1:19 pm 14. Everyone's Out to Get Us!:Here is what I’m hearing from you:
“Whine whine whine. whine whine whiine whiiiiine. Whine! Whine whine whiine!”
You’ve got a cable news channel that is ENTIRELY in the bag for your party, you OWN the radio, and you are so deeply paranoid about facts, you had to create your own version of the Wikipedia. What do you have left to whine about?
When Obama wins, will you go back in time and recognize that the polls were correct? I sincerely doubt it.
Sep 25, 2008 - 1:20 pm 15. Larry J:There are several ways to bias a poll. It starts with the population base. If you poll the people of Berkeley or the People’s Republic of Boulder, you’ll likely get a very different response than if you poll Phoenix or Colorado Springs.
Next, it depends on how you phrase the questions. Beware of any poll that only announces the results and not the questions. For example, if the question read, “Would you rather vote for Obama or have a stick jammed in your eye?”, you’ll get a different answer than if you ask, “Who do you intend to vote for, Obama or McCain?”
Sep 25, 2008 - 1:22 pm 16. Larry J:“Whine whine whine. whine whine whiine whiiiiine. Whine! Whine whine whiine!”
You’ve got a cable news channel that is ENTIRELY in the bag for your party, you OWN the radio, and you are so deeply paranoid about facts, you had to create your own version of the Wikipedia. What do you have left to whine about?
When Obama wins, will you go back in time and recognize that the polls were correct? I sincerely doubt it.
I’ll trade you talk radio and Fox News for NBC, ABC, CBS, PBS, CNN, Time, Newsweek, and almost every newspaper in the country.
And if McCain does win, will you be whining about how the election was stolen? Could it be that people will look at Obama, find him an unqualified empty suit, and decide not to vote for him? Or would that make them racists?
Sep 25, 2008 - 1:24 pm 17. Craig:” its called random sampling”
Which isn’t a particularly accurate method for projecting elections.
There’s another method called stratified random sampling which works better in situations like these. Non-stratified random sampling can certainly give you an idea about public opinion, but people don’t show up to vote randomly.
The probablilites of Republican turn-out can be different than those for Democratic turn-out. The elderly vote in much higher numbers than the young and minorities have a history of lower voting percentages than whites.
The article’s criticism is valid in my opinion.
Sep 25, 2008 - 1:47 pm 18. ic:Zelsdorf Ragshaft III: The only poll that counts is conducted November 4. With McCain we get to keep the 50 white stars on a field of blue on our flag. If Obama wins, we can replace the stars with little red hammers and sickles.
Correction: we will have 57 hammers and sickles.
Sep 25, 2008 - 1:48 pm 19. Ed Wallis:Oh, THE TROLLS ARE OUT IN DROVE TODAY, folks.
LET’S PLAY A GAME: IGNORE THE TROLLS.
Buh-BYE, tomw, proud elitist, Robert Hurley, Everyone’sBLaBLa…
YES, let’s just IGNORE them.
Sep 25, 2008 - 1:49 pm 20. james:I spent an entire career doing market polling and research. Believe me, every single one of them, regardless of product, candidate or agenda, has a built-in skew. It’s how the game is played and the money gets paid.
Sep 25, 2008 - 1:55 pm 21. Therese:If you think otherwise you literally don’t know what you’re talking about.
Are they all equally untruthful? No. But it’s only a matter of degree at the end of the day.
Larry J:
Let’s add the Associated Press to the left-wing liberal list, too. At some point, someone needs to investigate these papers to see who is pulling all the strings for the Democratic party. Our media has been corrupted.
Sep 25, 2008 - 2:01 pm 22. Sarah:Hey everybody, just a little heads up for you. “proud elitist, tomw, and robert hurley” all love to hang out on PJM and try and convince everybody that Obama is trying to cure cancer in his free time because he is just that awsome! They also LOVE to talk about the polls because there is obviously nothing else going on in our country as as exciting and spell-binding as the next poll results!!!!!!
Sep 25, 2008 - 2:02 pm 23. pjean:For your own personal sanity just ignore them. They’re like the crazy aunt that everybody has, you just have to nod and smile when they say something because you know they’re a few fries short on their mental happy meal.
This can play a couple different ways. If Obama “appears” to be leading, his less reliable voters may stay home because they don’t want to miss “The Hills”. McCain voters may need to understand that although early polls show him behind, they cannot be assured until their vote is finally counted. We understand that a bias exists and polls have many factors not taken into account, so Republicans need to understand the importance of their vote.
Sep 25, 2008 - 2:03 pm 24. R Beckey:Talk Radio does not claim to be unbiased and cable news only one Channel gives both view points. MSM claims to be unbiased That what I’m whining about.
Sep 25, 2008 - 2:07 pm 25. tomw:Are you sure I’m a troll? I thought I was elitist because I disagree with you?
Look, why is it a problem to read the views of the opposition? That’s why I come here, I want to understand what your arguments are. Do you really think it makes you more informed to surround yourself with people who only agree with you?
Sep 25, 2008 - 2:10 pm 26. Sarah:NOD……
……. NOD……. 
……NOD……. 
Pssssttt…Ed, are they gone yet?
Sep 25, 2008 - 2:10 pm 27. Frank Logan:Again, This race has been over since early June. 28% of Hillary supporters are currently going to vote for McCain (up from 21% in June). In Penn. and Ohio that’s 400,000+ democrats in each state voting McCain. In 2004, Kerry edged Bush in Penn. by 130,000 votes. In Ohio, Bush edged Kerry by 140,000 votes. Obama can not win the Electoral vote if he loses those two states. McCain will win both states. The democrats are badly split and a house divided can not stand. Polls may go up and down every day, but the anger felt by Hillary’s supporters is constant and runs deep. They see Obama just like conservatives see him. McCain in a landslide 355 to 183.
Sep 25, 2008 - 2:12 pm 28. Keith Ashley:“Whine whine whine. whine whine whiine whiiiiine. Whine! Whine whine whiine!”
You’ve got a cable news channel that is ENTIRELY in the bag for your party, you OWN the radio, and you are so deeply paranoid about facts, you had to create your own version of the Wikipedia. What do you have left to whine about?
Riiiiigggghhhht !! I have to go out of my way to listen to freakin AM radio to even get the other side of the story and I’ve got an advantage ? Conservatives “own” AM radio b/c there is no reason for libs to listen to liberal talk radio when they get the same thing from every newspaper, network and newswire in the country. Don’t you think I’d rather just turn on the TV to learn about Obama’s ties to Saul Alinski and Ayers ?
FOX NEWS ? Home of Greta Van Susteren and Geraldo ? perhaps the two biggest Clinton defenders during his impeachment ? Do you think Shepard Smith is a conservative ?
You’ve probably never even watched it. You probably live in one of the towns that has banned it.
It’s amazing how having a cable station that has the nerve to actually report the other side brings calls of Right Wing Extremism.
Who’s really the whiner here ?
Sep 25, 2008 - 2:16 pm 29. Chris in Toronto:re: ic: 57 hammers and sickles. nope. 50+57=114 hammers & sickles in the Ummah flag.
Sep 25, 2008 - 2:16 pm 30. jack:Polls said John Kerry should report for duty 4 years ago. Still waiting. There trying to keep the GOP base down again. November will be a sharp and harsh reminder to the demcroRATS that using ‘tactis for radicals’ only works among themselves.
Sep 25, 2008 - 2:31 pm 31. Dave ll:Frank, you’re absolutely right! Though I think it McCain may end up in the low 300’s than 355. Looks like he won’t take MI or NM, but things have a way of changing fast.
That’s EXACTLY why NATIONAL polls are so meaningless right now. I can see talking about specific state polls, but other than that…it’s so much fluff.
And when an “October Surprise” hits Obama, like the Republicans no doubt have…it will REALLY change things fast!
Sep 25, 2008 - 2:32 pm 32. ex-democrat:tomw – if you really came here come here “to understand what your arguments are” you’d either shut up and read or, at most, ask sincere questions. instead you spout obama talking points and other assorted cliches.
Sep 25, 2008 - 2:56 pm 33. proud elitist:in other words, you’re a liar.
So we comment on a thread that talks about skewed polls and then cite some alternative sites…
Then, Ed tells peeps to ignore us, naturally Sarah replies. (rolls eyes)
And no, I don’t think Obama has roses coming out of any orifice or that he will bring around world peace.
I just look at the alternative, throw up in my mouth, and thank all god and deities that we have Obama and you have JohnnyPOWMac and Sarah.
Sep 25, 2008 - 2:57 pm 34. Bogus Poll Intended to Boost Obama « NObama - Not Now, Not Ever:[...] read more | digg story [...]
Sep 25, 2008 - 3:01 pm 35. Brian:Polls are useless.If the Obama campaign is basing their info on polls then they will lose for sure come November.I dont use polls to gauge my vote i use facts.Since Obama fails in foreign policy,Mccains the man.All else the the Obama camp throws at me is pointless since i tune out attack ads now.No experience in foreign policy or domestic policy for that matter(Obama),to 20+ years experience for Mccain?I cant vote for Obama the closet socialist.The Canadian province of Ontario tried socialism in the 1990’s.It didnt work out so good.Now we got a mayor of Toronto who we cant seem to get rid of and hes a socialist.Klingons to power they are.Whats that?Liberalism the way of the future?How are liberals going to keep the human race going with abortion?How are they going to keep people together with race baiting and kissing tyrants propaganda(see Irans leader on CNN)?Ill never vote liberal.Sorry thats just the way it is.
Sep 25, 2008 - 3:02 pm 36. tomw:ex-democrat:
Sep 25, 2008 - 3:19 pm 37. 888:Well that too. If I see something I don’t agree with, I’m going reply. Is it really that painful to for you to read another perspective?
Terrorist Ayers, Reverend Wright, Tony Rezko, hidden transcripts, 130 ‘Present’ votes, hidden birth certificate, small towns clinging to guns and religion, 1st term senator 19 months campaigning, ignored injured soldiers to go work out at gym, 2nd highest recipient of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac donations, southside Chicago still cesspool of crime and poverty after $160 million of his Chicago Annenberg Challenge, voted most liberal senator in Washington, refused to wear US flag on lapel, refused to put hand over heart during National Anthem, criticized America in Berlin world tour, would not admit surge success, has not written one legislation since becoming US senator, supported and pressed for death of livebirth infants, cannot say when life begins – above his paygrade, against oil drilling, says he’s more qualified than Palin because of his campaign experience, supports increased taxes for middle class and small business owners, Fannie Mae’s Franklin Raines advises him on housing issues, Fannie Mae chair Jim Johnson who received millions in bonuses is currently working for his campaign, no foreign policy experience except world tour, no executive experience except sham Chicago Annenberg Challenge, injected race into campaign (funny name, funny face on dollar bill), dissed Jews at anti-Iran president rally, at 3:00 AM, will call Biden first, etc., etc., etc. This is a matter of judgment and leadership.
Sep 25, 2008 - 3:20 pm 38. Self-hating boomer:If we don’t see a significant McCain bounce in the polls in the coal states from Biden’s brilliant gaffe, we’ll know the fix is in. Keep your eyes on PA, VA, OH, and CO.
And btw, thanks, Joe. McCain really needs those states.
Sep 25, 2008 - 3:22 pm 39. Anonymous:Its not what the media says or does. Its the atmosphere the endless gossip and triviality creates. Its the 30 second attention span the sound bytes inculcate. Its the obsession with celebrity that the media creates. They set the mood in which a empty celebrity like Obama can
Sep 25, 2008 - 3:55 pm 40. proud elitist:flourish. Thats how the media does its damage, not by slanting news reports etc.
if anyone spews out talking points, it isn’t those of us “libruls” on this board.
I mean, look at 888’s post above… So many falsehoods…
No actual candor about McCain and his campaign ties to F/F, deregulation, flip-flopping, Keating Five, aiding in covering up for Cindy when she stole drugs, etc. McCain was the most absent senator of the 110th congress,
H*ll, 888, I cannot say when life begins. Depends on your definition/POV.
You may say “conception” and I can blast you with statistics regarding the fruitlessness of that claim within the context of an abortion debate…
Heck I can ask you now: if “life” begins at conception, but that conception doesn’t produce a pregnancy… Does that mean God doesn’t care? Or that “life” isn’t as precious in its initial stages because there will be no baby? What about in vitro fertilization? Does that “life” begin in the petri dish?
You’re right that it is about judgement and leadership. Palin v. Biden?
Advantage: Obama
And if you think wearing a flag pin makes you any more patriotic than another person… Stooge. It makes you more of a poser than anything. Just like a person of faith does not have to go to church to “prove” their faith (since it is in your heart and soul), a man doesn’t have to wear a lapel pin to be a patriotic American.
But we know your party likes fakes and posers:
Pro-Family Vitter. Anti-homosexual Larry Craig. Advocate of Child Protection Laws Mark Foley. Blasted Clinton for Lewinsky but was having an affair at the time Gingrigh. Blast Clinton for Lewinsky with illegitimate kid in the background Burton. Compassionate Conservative Bush. Obama’s an elitist Romney, Guiliani and McCain…
Sep 25, 2008 - 4:02 pm 41. thegr8 1:Bogus poll intended to boost bogus candidate.
Sep 25, 2008 - 4:31 pm 42. ABC News inflates polls to favour Obama: A news analysis:[...] http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/bogus-poll-intended-to-boost-obama/ [...]
Sep 25, 2008 - 4:39 pm 43. trangbang68:So Tomw admits if Obama is elected there will be hammers and sickles on the flag.
Sep 25, 2008 - 4:45 pm 44. mina:Proud elitist, don’t gag on that vomit, its just an election.
What troubles me more than the slanted polls are the mindless masses who stumble along in everyday life in which their sole form of news absorption are the news channel that they stumble upon while waiting for their favorite canned laughter sitcom to appear, like abc,cbs,nbc,CNN,these are the guilty ones who put out yesterday’s rubbish. A closer look at the source of the information revealed that it came from an outfit called gqrr. gqrr.com holds nothing back as to their purpose. In its first paragraph on its home page it says “We give Democrats the edge over their opponents “. No lack of subtlty there. So much for impartiality. The news medias have thrown the baby out with the bath water when it comes to objective standards and ethical reporting. Great print the article but reveal the providers true intentions “caveat emptor”. Oh by the way gqrr. also does surveys for “NPR” otherwise known as taxpayer sponsored “commie free radio”
Sep 25, 2008 - 5:17 pm 45. gettyleigh:Torture numbers, and they’ll confess to anything. ~Gregg Easterbrook
98% of all statistics are made up. ~Author Unknown
Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. ~Aaron Levenstein
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable. ~Bobby Bragan, 1963
Statistics can be made to prove anything – even the truth. ~Author Unknown
Statistics are human beings with the tears wiped off. ~Paul Brodeur, Outrageous Misconduct
Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable. ~Author Unknown
Lottery: A tax on people who are bad at math. ~Author Unknown
He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lampposts – for support rather than for illumination. ~Andrew Lang
One more fagot of these adamantine bandages is the new science of Statistics. ~Ralph Waldo Emerson
Statistics are like women; mirrors of purest virtue and truth, or like whores to use as one pleases. ~Theodor Billroth
Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say. ~William W. Watt
Then there is the man who drowned crossing a stream with an average depth of six inches. ~W.I.E. Gates
There are two kinds of statistics, the kind you look up and the kind you make up. ~Rex Stout, Death of a Doxy
I always find that statistics are hard to swallow and impossible to digest. The only one I can ever remember is that if all the people who go to sleep in church were laid end to end they would be a lot more comfortable. ~Mrs. Robert A. Taft
Satan delights equally in statistics and in quoting scripture…. ~H.G. Wells, The Undying Fire
The average human has one breast and one testicle. ~Des McHale
While the individual man is an insoluble puzzle, in the aggregate he becomes a mathematical certainty. You can, for example, never foretell what any one man will be up to, but you can say with precision what an average number will be up to. Individuals vary, but percentages remain constant. So says the statistician. ~Arthur Conan Doyle
A statistical analysis, properly conducted, is a delicate dissection of uncertainties, a surgery of suppositions. ~M.J. Moroney
Statistics may be defined as “a body of methods for making wise decisions in the face of uncertainty.” ~W.A. Wallis
After all, facts are facts, and although we may quote one to another with a chuckle the words of the Wise Statesman, “Lies – damned lies – and statistics,” still there are some easy figures the simplest must understand, and the astutest cannot wriggle out of. ~Leonard Courtney, speech, August 1895, New York, “To My Fellow-Disciples at Saratoga Springs,” printed in The National Review (London, 1895) (Thanks, Mark)
Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” ~Mark Twain, autobiography, 1904 (but, as yet no actual record of this under Disraeli’s authorship)
The theory of probabilities is at bottom nothing but common sense reduced to calculus. ~Laplace, Théorie analytique des probabilités, 1820
I abhor averages. I like the individual case. A man may have six meals one day and none the next, making an average of three meals per day, but that is not a good way to live. ~Louis D. Brandeis
The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic. ~Joe Stalin, comment to Churchill at Potsdam, 1945
I could prove God statistically. Take the human body alone – the chances that all the functions of an individual would just happen is a statistical monstrosity. ~George Gallup
Sep 25, 2008 - 5:21 pm 46. James:The Washington Post- ABC Poll was contracted out to the same company who does record keeping for the federal global warming results.
Sep 25, 2008 - 6:11 pm 47. Jaded:Here is the deal on polls who cares? We will know who will be the President by 11:00 pm on November 4th it will be CLEAR! The American people do not listen to the media anymore they don’t care what they say, they don’t believe what they say and they will not be swayed by the likes of Couric and Co. They are irrelevent!
Sep 25, 2008 - 6:15 pm 48. B Dubya:It is to be hoped that Obama’s campaign (with its loosley attached battalions of nutroot storm trooper) believes its own propaganda and takes the month off.
Sep 25, 2008 - 6:16 pm 49. Marina:Because anything coming from the US traditional news outlets between now and Nov 4 is pretty much going to be agitprop for the Chicago ward heeler.
I really hope they buy the exit polls hook, line and sinker too, because the shock and disappointment when their messiah loses by 15 points will be priceless.
Meanwhile, who’s looking into the Democrat efforts to subvert the voting process in Ohio and again in Washington State?
Oh, PROUD MEMBERS OF CHRIS MATTHEWS’ LEG SOCIETY ARE PRETTY ACTIVE TODAY.
Very funny people, take themselves so seriously… I’ll almost miss them when their deity will lose. But not as much as I’ll almost miss Biden with his genuine sense of humor. They should learn from him how to make a fool of oneself PROFESSIONALLY. Suckers!
Sep 25, 2008 - 6:45 pm 50. Nordles:Hmm, if you look at the poll over the duration, you see that McCain was polling better with an even higher D/R ratio. Now how’d they tweak that?
Sep 25, 2008 - 6:51 pm 51. tomw:tranybanger69: I admit nothing, simply making a correction, because a sickle isn’t a cycle.
Sep 25, 2008 - 7:11 pm 52. trangbang68:Touchy touchy Tommy.You know you’re flakking for a neo-Marxist sock puppet for George Soros. Sounds like you might be on your monthly cycle.
Sep 25, 2008 - 7:48 pm 53. fred:The consensus among the circles I run in is that we do not answer phone calls for pollsters. Most of us are Republicans. We work and when we are at home we don’t want to be bothered by that crap. Who answers these polls? Obviously people who are either not working or people who have nothing else better to do.
I trust almost nothing put out by the MSM now. They distort reality so much that I just don’t want to bother with it anymore.
Sep 25, 2008 - 8:25 pm 54. Battlecat:These “polls” are media wish lists. The people who believe them are going to get a little shock when their false messiah loses.
Sep 25, 2008 - 8:27 pm 55. barrybarryquitecontrary.com:tomw – Behavior predicts! Past behvior, predicts future behavior… always. You are very predictable. The hammer and sickle give you comfort, we all know it. It’s time for you to admit it. It will be healthy. Go ahead, have a moment of introspection and self awareness. I’ll send you my bill. You’ll be glad you got to the bottom of your abandonment issues while being raised by a single mother who inadvertently created your effeminant persuasions while trying to be raise a young boy lost in his own fantasy. We’re here for you. Just don’t get too close to our children… nothing personal.
Here’s my prescription: Apply this advice 3 times per day to your nether regions while standing in a circle with proud elitist, robert hurley and other socicalist apologists. A circle j**k is the best ointment for your circular reasoning. Take a long stroll on a short pier. Remember, we’re laughing with you, not at you… really! Place aluminum foil in a cone shaped fashion on your most cephalad region (your head) while walking in blind faith toward your chosen messiah (little m). Call me in the morning.
888 – You were on such a roll… why did you stop? There is sooooooo much more!
Liars, cheats and cons will be liars, cheats and cons… always! It’s time to take the gloves off and expose Obama for the fraud that he is. Fasten your seatbelts liberals and communists (little c), ’cause your a** is in for a ride over the next 40 days. 888 and the American people have your number and it is 2. The first loser!
gettyleigh – Bravo! Thank you! I laughed outloud at the truth of it all!
Sep 25, 2008 - 8:27 pm 56. fred:And the sampling isn’t truly unbiased because there are other factors at work in who cooperates with the poll takers. I deal with numbers all the time (equities’ analyst)and I know how statistical measurements can be invalidated.
And I’m too tired at night after work to take phone calls I do not recognize the number for. Call it rude, but that’s how it is. I think they are invading our space by pestering us.
Sep 25, 2008 - 8:28 pm 57. Proud REDNECK:What more did you expect from the one sided reporting not only from ABC but NBC & CBS. Not only is CBS one sided but the let their sorry so called talk show host run his mouth off instead of entertaining his 6 viewers. If Obama does get elected we will be learning a second language but it won’t be Spanish.
Sep 25, 2008 - 8:52 pm 58. Deus:gettyleigh 5:21 pm:
Great posting!
Polls are a business. People get paid by the hour to fill in forms and make calls. The principles are scientific but the execution is dubious. And if they’re not accurate, people forget and a new poll is made. It’s another form of entertainment. The problem is the naive public that have no idea what’s hitting them. Polls are for lemmings . . .
Have you people been to a casino, a lottery, bingo, horse race, football game or a fight? Those are polls too. Only the final event shows reality.
Sep 25, 2008 - 9:21 pm 59. nlcatter:until debates are over (which mccain is hidng from)
these number are meaningless
Sep 25, 2008 - 9:30 pm 60. Lise:Ah, even the great American media distorts the truth? No wonder that it is a common remark in my region of Unterwalden that Americans “have no brains, integrity, or common sense – they used to have money, but even that is failing them now.” Sorry to all American readers, but I hope you are aware that your nation’s status in the world is falling at a rapid rate, and that China, Japan, the EU and the UK are rapidly taking your place.
Sep 25, 2008 - 9:36 pm 61. Down, please:Take a poll. If you don’t like it, take another. And another. When you get the results you want, report it.
Sep 25, 2008 - 9:36 pm 62. fred:Lise,
We are still a great country, which is why we are so free and generous that idiots like you who post taunts are allowed to express your neural flatulence.
Sep 25, 2008 - 9:48 pm 63. john from cinncinati:dammit…. four more years of the same ol bashing. if the demo’s lose another one cuz they can’t bullshit the great unwashed masses, will they continue to run down the administration? mc bush its now his fault. will they ever be bipartisan? hey congress changed hands in 06 on a mandate to bring the right wing government back to the center. hey keep it in the middle sparky and you might have a democrat for president. finding a centrist in the democratic party is like finding a virgin in a… well you get the drift. most candidates had to start drifting center about 4 years ago.
Sep 25, 2008 - 9:59 pm 64. DakFarm:(well i might not be a smart man but i know what love is) forest Gump.
“random sampling” requires using a random sample until you’ve collected proper responses that match your model. It isn’t so far-fetched that a model calling for (as an example) 3000 subjects distributed 33% D, 33% R, 34% I would have to call over 10,000 subjects to meet that model.
Given the demographics of this country, and the voting in the last eight presidential election cycles, I can’t believe the numbers described by Gill reflect a model formulated in advance of the results to predict an “accurate sampling of the american electorate.” Therefore, it is not “Sometimes you get more men than women, sometimes more dems than republicans.” The object is to get the actual number of responses in each category of your model as was determined to have a high probability of reflecting that which the poll tries to describe.
Sep 25, 2008 - 10:02 pm 65. jvon:The media did this with the Kerry polls before the 2004 election. I expect them to have a similar level of success this time.
The real damage this causes is that it undermines people’s faith in the electoral system, since the media will report nonstop between now and the election that Obama is ten points ahead. Then he will lose.
Sep 25, 2008 - 10:15 pm 66. trangbang68:Lise, While the EU passes the USA by make sure you keep your head scarf on so your Muslim masters won’t be offended. Oh darn what are those pesky Russians up to now.
Sep 25, 2008 - 11:02 pm 67. zeppenwolf:tomw: What if there just are more people who identify themselves as democrat?
Actually, yes– people figured that out a very long time ago, (but thanks for the tip!)
Democrats have indeed been more numerous in self-identification than Republicans, and pollsters have accordingly over-sampled Democrats to a corresponding degree for a long time.
But the above poll doesn’t reflect the current reality, or that of any recent election.
And in fact, in recent past, Republicans have been closing the gap. So… You do the math.
Sep 25, 2008 - 11:08 pm 68. Blogs For Victory » What Media Bias?:[...] MSMers report it as if its news…but those of us who know a bit about polling were expecting just what Steve Gill over at Pajamas Media reports: But what the news outlets failed to report in their coverage about the Washington Post-ABC poll [...]
Sep 25, 2008 - 11:33 pm 69. beemer:To tomw and the other libs on the page- no we are not intimidated by other opinions, just annoyed by those who don’t try to do their research themselves before posting, don’t go far enough in their research, or that show extreme intolerance and unnecessary rudeness for our viewpoints.
For example: one quote from above (which is on numerous blog sites) regarding McCain’s supposedly worst voting record? According to Govtrack.us the lifetime honor actually falls to Sen. Obama at 24% (306) missed votes since 2003. True, McCain has been the most absent recently -2007 Stats- (55%), but is followed closely by Biden(39%) and Obama(37%). http://bolson.org/gov/us/senate/ Prior to this term, McCain’s record going back 18 yrs (the earliest available here) was 6.85% not voting. BTW, he has voted against his party about 16% of the time, a number very similar to Biden’s record with the exception of this yr.
Space and time limits me from debating every area, but you get the point I hope. Do your homework, and then debate intelligently- don’t rely on headlines and other blogs.
Sep 25, 2008 - 11:37 pm 70. Marc Malone:Lise, you’re actually right. The other countries are indeed “catching up to us”. The more liberal and multicultural we become, the more like you we become, Actually, you’re not catching up to us: we’re drifting backwards towards you. Before you know it, our “recession like” unemployment rate of 6% will be like your regular rate of 8%.
What’s odd, though, is how our financial crisis has simply hammered the markets of the rest of the world. Other markets take twice the hit ours do. You better hope we don’t slide too much more, or the world is truly screwed.
To tomw, I admire that you read the opposition sites. I do the same. What I wonder is, do you get anything out of them? Surely, when you read enough of the other viewpoint, something must get through. We have to make a good point now and then, no? Sadly, I don’t hear such from you. You just seem to be one of those guys on a mission to disrupt the other side. You spew generic Bush-lied-people-died kind of stuff. You flail. You lash out.
So, I’m trying to figure out if you are just a partisan hack, or simply some 20 year old. Your mannerisms here are those of today’s rude youth. I may disagree with “proud elitist”, but his communication style is of someone older, albeit somewhat laden with the sarcasm of today’s rude style.
Sep 26, 2008 - 12:36 am 71. Emmet Sweeney:I notice how the lefty fruitcakes always have their comments in first. Do these geeks live at their computer screens? Get a life, guys; make some friends!
Sep 26, 2008 - 1:06 am 72. Tony:I’m not sure what all the fuss is about – surely it is better for Obama to be polling ahead of McCain at this stage?
If those generally apolitical folks who have been bamboozled into voting for Obama by the media bias and celebrity endorsements believe he’s going to win anyway then they wont bother to vote on 4th November as they will feel their vote is irrelevant and they’ll stay in and watch tv as usual. Conversely it may get the right-leaning apathetic types off their backsides to vote for McCain if they feel he’s slipping behind.
So let the media flaunt their biases for Obama – they have been doing it all year and they are only damaging his campaign by doing so. The irony is delicious.
Sep 26, 2008 - 1:15 am 73. rachel:According to the polls John Kerry should have won. According to the polls Al Gore should have won.
The only poll that matters is on election day.
Sep 26, 2008 - 2:08 am 74. William of Orange:Tony: Damn! You stole my thunder! I would only add that maybe the recent rise in McCain’s numbers is probably attributable to those only now waking up to the realization that an election is coming in November and they will be required exercise their constitutional duty to vote IN ADDITION to their other daily responsiblities such as making a living, raising a family, paying the mortgage, and (ugh) paying taxes, etc. And their sober examination of the landscape have led them to choose McCain over Obama.
While most now associate the Republicans to the credit crisis because of a knee-kerk dislike of the current administration, heaven help the Democrats if these votes successfully connect the dots to discover the antics of Congressman Frank, Senator Dodd, Raines, Johnson, and the Most Merciful One himself.
If that occurs — a sober reflection on the facts not the headlines — them Obama is toast. If it does not and Obama is elected, then he will surely be discovered for the fraud he is in the first 100 days.
I am just not sure I can take 4 years of the deer-in-the-headlights stare, the behind-the-power-curve reactions to world events, and the genral lack of ladership he and his cronies will bring.
Sep 26, 2008 - 2:44 am 75. hp:gee, i for a moment thought you had been playing on my craigslist/pol, but a quick search of the internet shows you could have been playing on ANY of them and come to the conclusion you did for this FINE piece of work here.
what’s really funny? that quick search of the net showed BUNCHES of people were laying into the offender who hit me up in the last couple of days. the responder(s) i saw said the same thing i did and now what you are here, just not quite as nicely as we did.
POLLS ARE SKEWED.
THEY’RE CONSCIOUSLY PREYING ON THE HUMAN NATURE TRAIT OF WISHING TO BASK IN THE GLOW OF THE WINNER’S CIRCLE, EVEN IF IT’S BY DEFAULT OF BEING ONCE REMOVED!
)
Sep 26, 2008 - 4:10 am 76. myth buster:I am opposed to in vitro fertilization precisely because it leaves so many embryos on ice that parents will never allow to be born. What we don’t need is more hypocrites. That’s why I voted for Huckabee in the primaries, and that’s why I support Sarah Palin. It seems McCain has been pulled to the right, even if it is against his will.
Obama needs a Gunnery Sergeant to tear his ego down ten pegs. I dare Obama to last one day at Paris Island. If I have to put up with a Gunnery Sergeant for four years to become a Naval Officer, my Commander in Chief better not have an ego that a GySgt would never let a Midshipman have.
Sep 26, 2008 - 5:05 am 77. adam:The Washington Post Poll started out with the same sameple number of Democrats and Republicans, but they threw out the Republican answers they did not like.
Sep 26, 2008 - 5:17 am 78. Rubicon:The article points out the obvious. Polls have been corrupted to provide results according to the wishes of the buyers.
Sep 26, 2008 - 5:33 am 79. Indie in CT:Fox News presents more of a balanced view than the nets. Al Gore wants us to buy into “balance as bias.” What he really means is, “lets not let the other side talk, just feed the people the crap we say they should obey.”
CNN, CBS, NBC, ABC, MSNBC, Wash Post, New York Times, NPR, & so many others have demonstrated bias to the extent they appear to be actual arms of the Democrats. Perhaps the Federal Elections Commission should be looking into both sides to see who is working for whom?
Being in the tank for one or the other is not a problem. The problem is when one is in the tank, but spews nonsense that they are objective & fairly reporting “news,” when they are really reporting concocted stories & push polls.
McCain may not win & he surely is not the best conservative candidate, so stop trying to saddle conservatives with him. But, Obama is definitely a socialist whose Marxist upbringing & Black Liberation Theology teachings have so corrupted his thoughts that all are victims, if it gets him elected & will be if he is elected!
If the media would only report the asterisks associated with this poll, I would have no problem. But when democrat voters see this, we unfortunately get theories of voting irregularities and “disenfranchisement” once the true polling occurs, representing all voters. And unfortunately there are many Americans who vote for the guy ahead, so they won’t be “wasting” the vote…we love that bandwagon. And just one more thought…jsut because your candidate loses doesn’t mean you are disenfranchised!! Can the demoncrats understand that??
Sep 26, 2008 - 6:09 am 80. Joe Buzz:Whats the probability that poll results motivate some voters to get out and vote for the candidate supposedly not in the lead?
Sep 26, 2008 - 6:33 am 81. Tito:Does anyone but me find it odd that news organizations create polls and then report them as news? I realize that the news media like nothing better than to report the campaign as a “race”, but aren’t there enough polls that could be reported upon without them having to create their own?
Sep 26, 2008 - 8:10 am 82. 888:1) Terrorist Ayers hosted fundraisers for him
Will not release transcripts
2) He and Ayers served on Woods Fund Board together for 3 years
3) Described Ayers and Dohrn as “mainstream”
4) Racist Wright married him and wife
5) Racist Wright baptized each of his kids
6) Convicted slumlord Rezko raised funds for him
7) Convicted Rezko helped get him a $1.4 million mansion while the slumlord refused heating for his tenants in Obama’s own southside Chicago
9) 130 ‘Present’ votes
10) Will not release birth certificate
11) Attended party for Israel basher & Arafat apologist, Rashid Khalid
12) Israel basher, Khalid Rashid, hosted fundraiser for Obama’s 1st congressional campaign
13) Contributed $13,107 to Congressional Black Caucus then classified it as charitable donation on tax return
14) Sought $860 million in earmarks
15) Received $1 million earmark for wife’s company
16) Southside Chicago still cesspool of crime & poverty after he received $160 million for his Chicago Annenberg Challenge to improve southside Chicago
17) Voted against making English the US official language on 4 separate roll calls
18) Voted most liberal senator in Washington
19) Has not written one piece of legislation since becoming US senator but wrote 2 memoirs about himself
20) Compared Reverend Wright to his own grandmother
21) Angry wife “first time” proud of country
22) Refused to wear US flag on lapel
23) Refused to put hand over heart during National Anthem
24) Said gay rights is like civil rights
25) Tells Americans to speak Spanish when he himself doesn’t know Spanish
26) 1st term senator 19 months campaigning
27) Cancelled meeting with war-injured soldiers to go work out at gym
28) Said small towns’ bitterness made them “cling to guns and religion”
29) Will not say when life begins – above his “paygrade”
30) Promises universal health care but won’t say how he will pay for it
31) Supported and pressed for killing of live birth infants
32) Criticized America in Berlin during world tour
33) Would not admit surge success
34) Opposes oil drilling
35) Says he’s more qualified than Palin because of his campaigning experience
36) Wants to increase taxes on middle class and small business owners
37) Wants to increase corporate taxes which will result in jobs going abroad
38) 2nd highest recipient of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac donations
39) Fannie Mae’s Franklin Raines advises him on housing issues
40) Fannie Mae chair, Jim Johnson, who received millions in bonuses is currently working for his campaign
41) Injected race into campaign – “funny face, funny name on dollar bill”
42) Shops at expensive organic store for arugula
43) Created his own presidential seal
44) Got confused without the teleprompter
45) No foreign policy experience except world tour
46) No executive experience except sham Chicago Annenberg Challenge
47) Attended Hollywood and New York fundraisers hosted by prominent Jews but skipped anti-Ahmedinijad rally
48) Claims he’s visited 57 states
49) Refused McCain’s over 20 calls for townhall meeting debates
50) No one can explain what he accomplished as Community Organizer
51) No one can explain what he accomplished as Illinois State Senator
52) No one can explain what he accomplished as US State Senator
This is a matter of judgment, character and leadership.
Sep 26, 2008 - 9:05 am 83. dpw:obama supporters: here is your chance to list his accomplishmnets: list of legislation he wrote that passed? list of foreign policy accomplishments? lists of jobs created in chicago as in how many steel workers did he put back to weork? lists of legislation that has helped small business and entrpreneurs?
take your time, then get back to us….
Sep 26, 2008 - 9:29 am 84. Payne W:Why does the MSM goes to Alaska to speak with librarians yet won’t go to Chicago to look at the slums O helped Rezko create? And if O is such a great leader with all kinds of abilities why is that we don’t find people he has helped while on his journey? I’d suspect if he had been such a great leader people (not his supporters who want anyone but a republican) would be coming out of the wood work to say “hey leave this man alone, he created jobs, reduced my taxes, improved my work environment, improved my living conditions, improved my schools” etc. etc.? Could it be that he hasn’t done anything that has had a positive effect on those he was elected to serve? Wouldn’t it at least deserve to be looked into?
Sep 26, 2008 - 10:52 am 85. Payne W:Just for fun I went to nbc.com and searched “annenberg” and “rezko”. Not one article was found? I figured I would at least find articles with a liberal slant but I was wrong.
Sep 26, 2008 - 11:08 am 86. proud elitist:OMG: “42) Shops at expensive organic stores for arugula”
Are you rightarded or something? Are you biased towards arugula because it is tasty? Because I get it at Trader Joe’s for like $2 a bag…
I don’t even know how to start with the banality of your list, 888. So much of it has been debunked by various fact-check sites that I think you need to do some legwork and come back with a truncated list.
By the way, 888, with regard to 29), what is the right answer?/b>
Oh, and for 9) above, the 129 present votes represent 3% of the total votes cast.
For 10) above, you might want to do some legwork, sweetpea…the certificate was released in June…
Just in case you are too lazy http://www.factcheck.org/
Sep 26, 2008 - 11:58 am 87. Deus:888:
52 reasons to get him elected.
Sep 26, 2008 - 4:14 pm 88. proud elitist:Deus:
Word.
I, personally, will take Ayers, Rezko and Wright et al. baggage over
1) Anything with an “R” as a party designation;
Sep 26, 2008 - 5:55 pm 89. Sissy:2) Anything that has been closely associated with GWB;
3) Anything who has a running mate who is GWB in drag;
4) Anything who has championed the deregulation philosophy that is now plaguing our finances;
5) Anything who used “POW” as a defense for anything and everything; and
6) Anything that got smeared by Rove et al. in 2000 only to have those representatives as campaign staffers in 2008.
Proud Elitist:
I eat arugula…it’s good. Many of my friends wouldn’t know what it is. No big deal. I can admit, it does have a bit of an ‘elitist’ ring to it…I mean, it isn’t exactly iceberg!
Life begins when the egg is fertilized by the sperm. In other words, early on. We are, to my way of thinking, killing developing humans, via our abortion policies. Not to mention, allowing aborted fetuses (children in plain speak)who weren’t killed by the abortionist, to simply die. And we have the nerve to denigrate the Chinese who let babies be born, (girls of course) THEN withhold any care (rather like Obama allowed in the great state of Illinois).
Obama sponsored 121 bills, of which 116 haven’t made it out of committee. Two have been successfully enacted. (McCain- sponsored 473 bills, 307 haven’t made it out of committee, 30 successfully enacted) I believe Obama missed 24% of votes and McCain missed 18%…not a huge difference, in fact, not enough to make an issue of (in my opinion).
Hopefully, an answer to 888’s list of items you take issue with. However, his list was quite extensive, compared to your objections. Do you have more?
I will tell you that I have gone on Huffington’s blog, and other ‘left wing’ sites, and was CRUCIFIED, by the writers for ANY differing opinion! I attempted to be civil, and to debate issues, however, I was the target of many personal attacks by people who have no idea who I am, but vehemently despise my opinion. It was very, very ugly. Yet, they espouse tolerance!
I have never found PJM’s bloggers to be so vitriolic in their comments as the bloggers on Huffington Post et al.
Sep 26, 2008 - 6:50 pm 90. seguin:Well, gee, Lise, I presume your canton of Underwalden must be completely populated by pasty inbred morons incapable of rational thought or analysis. Only then could I possibly understand why they would stare reality in the face and just say to themselves: “Nope, that isn’t there.” Hopefully someday yall will stop eating paint chips, bathing in toxic waste, and making babies with close relatives long enough to realize how sad and pathetic anyone in the irrelevant and useless backwater that is the whole of Switzerland is for presuming that they have even the basic knowledge of the United States required for judging it.
No offense of course.
Sep 26, 2008 - 8:33 pm 91. GoVegan:I have a feeling that Obama is going to win. McCain was flopping everywhere last week.
Sep 27, 2008 - 12:29 am 92. Darin:I think if we polled all of the people at the Republican Convention, the results would have been a different.
Sep 27, 2008 - 6:06 am 93. lee:Proud elitist, you don’t mind the “baggage” of a former terrorist, a corrupt businessman, and a racist pastor? But then Mccain’s POW experience is some dead horse that’s beaten over and over again?
I’d say your credibility flew out of the window, except you don’t have any to being with.
Sep 27, 2008 - 2:06 pm 94. Militant-Infidel:proud elitist:
“For 10) above, you might want to do some legwork, sweetpea…the certificate was released in June…
Just in case you are too lazy http://www.factcheck.org/”
Please, please, please proud elitist, tell me how a “Certificate of Live Birth (CoLB)” is the same as a birth certificate (BC). I have both my original BC as well as a newly minted CoLB both from the Commonwealth of Virginia. My BC is actually signed by the Obstetrician who delivered me AND includes such trivialities as location of delivery (home or hospital)parents address, religion, occupation, citizenship and race.
The CoLB on the other hand just lists a name and date.
Enquiring minds want to know.
MI
Sep 27, 2008 - 7:56 pm 95. mama Mitzvah:bs’d
You are all the same bunch of silly children. Do you think you will be able to change the mind of even one conservative voter? That is what separates us & ultimately what will bring us to victory.
Have been reading the comments by those who think Barak Hussein Obama is king of the map
Here is another difference:
Sep 27, 2008 - 9:51 pm 96. franklinM:“…I just look at the alternative, throw up in my mouth, and thank all god and deities that we have Obama and you have JohnnyPOWMac and Sarah…”
You have, we have !!! Lol. The bottom line is that after the election, do you plan on leaving the country if the Republicans win? Otherwise, genius, Sen. McCain will be YOUR president (unless you plan to live underground for 8 years).
Sissy; Obama sponsored 121 bills, of which 116 haven’t made it out of committee. Two have been successfully enacted.
What are the 2 bills Obama authored and were passed?
Sep 27, 2008 - 10:09 pm 97. franklinM:Proudelitist; Oh, and for 9) above, the 129 present votes represent 3% of the total votes cast.
For 10) above, you might want to do some legwork, sweetpea…the certificate was released in June…
Just in case you are too lazy
Just in case you are too lazy to do some real fact finding, Obama has refused to bring any documentation to court to prove his citizenship. look ar berg vs obama. Now why would anyone refuse to do something so simple as bring in any birth certificate or COLB to the courts and end it once and for all?
Sep 27, 2008 - 10:15 pm 98. franklinM:Oh, factcheck.org is owned by annenberg. Thee annenberg Obama and Ayers were involved in wasting hundreds of millions of dollars meant to help the Chicago education system.
Sep 27, 2008 - 10:16 pm 99. Marie Rowan:I agree
Sep 28, 2008 - 12:02 am 100. Dave:I seem to recall Gore had a big lead, Kerry was called “Mr President” on election day by his own advisors, Bill Clinton never even got 50% of the vote and would have lost if not for Ross Perot, Dukakis and Mondale and Carter were all destroyed even though most had early leads in at least some polls…
The polls, when the media does them, ALWAYS over-represent Dems or wrongly elevate Dem candidates.
Don’t get me wrong, Dems can still win, but even when they do, it’s never by the margin the poll said it would be. Always less.
Sep 28, 2008 - 11:12 am 101. pokenhorn:Obama is Jeremiah Wright; Jeremiah Wright is Obama. Twenty years they basked in each others glow. They hate this country and they hate white people. The leader of the nation cannot be a fellow who hates the nation. Obama is a more polished copy of the typical politician that blacks select to represent them. Alcee Hastings, Marion Berry, William Jefferson, Maxine Waters, Cynthia McKinney, Red Dellums, Detroit mayor Kilpatrick, John Conyers et.al. Race hustlers all. NOWHERE to found is a Thomas Sowell, Walter Williams, Jesse Peterson, or Armstrong Williams. When the moment comes to pull the lever, see in your mind’s eye the contorted, hysterical, hate-laden visage of Wright. That is who Obama really is. Twenty years. Remember.
Sep 28, 2008 - 12:12 pm 102. Dragon:Obama is attacking (via his attorney) the NRA for its “false, misleading or deceptive advertising” ads. Welcome to presidential politics, Obama. Same type of stuff was thrown at Huckabee.
Obama has threatened a Chicago radio station (WGN) to keep certain people from being guests.
Obama has used lawyers in previous elections to take out opposing contenders.
Sep 28, 2008 - 9:19 pm 103. Dragon:A little tidbit: Zogby used the price of gasoline as part of his poll for the presidential approval rating. After I sent him a note suggesting the president had little to do with the price of gas, he removed this information from his site.
Sep 28, 2008 - 9:36 pm 104. kray28:Actually it’s fairly well known that statistics, like reality, has a well known liberal bias.
Most of you seem to have no clue about sampling bias and simple random sampling. Your sample wouldn’t be random if you picked your subpopulations a priori.
As a result all polls adjust results after the fact by correcting for sampling bias.
If you wanted to point your fingers at one poll and yell “cheat” I could buy it…but other polls are repeating the same result with some variance in just how bad it is for your boy McCain.
Sep 28, 2008 - 9:37 pm 105. Another Trickery to Boost Obama’s Poll « Jyoti’s Political Cuisine:[...] http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/bogus-poll-intended-to-boost-obama/ [...]
Sep 29, 2008 - 6:17 am 106. Ex-fetus:“Mr. Gill, its called random sampling.”
No, it’s not. It is called polling, random sampling is a technique used to check data in various scientific disiplines.
There is nothing random about an opinion poll.
“Sometimes you get more men than women, sometimes more dems than republicans.”
Yes, which is why it isn’t random sampling. In random sampling, your samples have to be the same, so you can compare the differences between them.
“So do think a better polling method would be to make sure you have a 50/50 split dem/republican?
Yes, since that way, you will get opinions, which are NEVER random and what we are trying to discover.
Do you not see the flaw in that method?
No, what I see is someone who thinks a random sample and an opinion poll are the same thing. Since you won’t believe me if I tell you they aren’t, google the two terms.
“What if there just are more people who identify themselves as democrat?”
There are. IIRC, it is something like 35.2 to 32.8, with the rest being undecided (independent).
What is interesting is when you break it down not by party, but but conservative/liberal. Then it breaks down into 60% conservative and 20% liberal, with 20% that refuse to answer the question. Almost half the Democrats describe them self as conservative. ( question 3-D, which you should google also)
If you like poll watching, the actual numbers are useless. Watch the trend lines. Trend lines show which way the polls MOVE over time. It’s the movement that counts, not who is ahead by how much today.
Ohhhhh….BAMA had been falling in his trend line. Until the Convention, when the slid was halted, only to start sliding again after the Republican convention. Since the Democratic party manufactured this economic crisis, the trend line for Ohhhhh,,,,BAMA has started to climb.
That is because the MSM is trying like ‘ell to pin the blame on Bush. They facts are that Dodd and Franks are the ones most responsible for the economic crisis, with Rains and Johnson helping a lot. (? Not sure about that last. There are so many crooks involved in this scam that I have trouble keeping track of them. the man I’m referring two was the high lvel Obama Campiagn official who resigned a few months ago). Now we will see if the MSM can hold the line and deliver the election.
I sort of doubt it. This is a Pulitzer Prize story, somebody will want it so bad they will rat out their brothers and/or sisters.
It is after all, the biggest robbery in the history of the world at 250 BILLION. the OIL-for-fraud scam of Saddam was just over 100 Billion, so this beats it by a ways. Plus, this is just the first of many.
Since Congress has decided to give away the taxpayers money, the line of crooks wanting some will stretch from Washington D.C. to Ft. Knox.
Eventually, the voters will figure it out, they always do.
Here;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_(statistics)
Wikipedia is more current then I am, since it has been 4+ decades since I took my courses and things DO change.
Sampling comes in many flavors.
“Statistics: The only science that enables different experts using the same figures to draw different conclusions.”
Sep 29, 2008 - 8:04 am 107. Rob A:Evan Esar, Esar’s Comic Dictionary
American Humorist (1899 – 1995)
The intelligence level of this country is pretty much endangered since those for an inexpereince oof has no idea how government really works and don’t realize it will be that jackhole of a VP candidate running the country.
The wrong result will reflect how uneducated this country really is.
Those who think he beat McCain in the first debate, the term “idiot” comes into mind.
Sep 29, 2008 - 10:59 am 108. tom shelly:I completely agree. All these polls are BS. They always show the liberal as the winner. Remember the last two elections they declared Kerry or Gore the ‘clear winner’ in all their polls before the elections. Just look a few months ago when their phony polls showed Guliani and Hillary as the nominees ! Don’t listen to them, be sure to get out and vote for McCain and not some Muslim foreigner with 153 days of experience only. Message brought to you by Niggermania.net
Oct 1, 2008 - 4:00 pm 109. Eugene Robinson: Can We Not Be Deeper in the Tank?:[...] to be construed in an alienating light, never mind that Obama may not represent their beliefs. That 19 of 20 African-Americans intend to vote for O! on the other hand, apparently is dispositive of nothing at [...]
Oct 7, 2008 - 6:58 am 110. Curiosidades políticas estadounidenses « Sarah Palin en Español:[...] La exuberancia de datos que proporciona internet nos permite hacer una análisis más detallado de esas encuestas y encontrar puntos débiles que podemos sortear. Lo que viene a continuación lo he construido gracias a DJ Drummond y Steve Gill. [...]
Oct 9, 2008 - 3:26 am 111. bruce:obama fuher hates america so why would any sane american vote for this traitor?he will destroy this great nation by stealing our liberties and opeaning our borders to every third world bum and enemy alien who wants to come here.no white people will be allowed in to america unless they are russian agents.you can attack me if you want as i could care less however i hope i don’t have to say i told you so.
Oct 22, 2008 - 11:06 am