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Can McCain Crack the Gay Vote?

Plenty of gays are skeptical of Barack Obama: McCain may have a better shot than one might think.

June 22, 2008 - by B. Daniel Blatt
Page 1 of 2  Next ->

Back in February while discussing the housing market with a realtor active in the Los Angeles gay community, the conversation turned to politics. I learned that this friend who had helped raise money for Hillary Clinton’s White House bid intended to support John McCain should his candidate lose the Democratic presidential nomination to Barack Obama.

At the time, I thought little of this exchange, assuming my friend’s opposition to his party’s then-frontrunner was an aberration, just one gay man who didn’t trust the junior senator from Illinois. But, about a month later, in an instant message conversation, a gay friend from New York who usually votes Democratic and then supported his own junior senator’s presidential campaign suggested he might vote for the Republican nominee this fall should Obama win the Democratic nomination.

He wouldn’t be the last. In the next month, I would talk to and overhear additional gay Democrats inclined to support John McCain in a fall match against Barack Obama. After an extended conversation with one such Democrat, I blogged on the topic, observing:

There seems to be a common theme among these Democrats (and at least one Democrat-leaning independent). They just don’t trust their party’s presidential frontrunner. One man said he lacked experience, another was concerned about his ties to shady characters. They didn’t think there was much substance behind his sizzle.

Soon thereafter, I talked with friends across the country who were noticing a similar trend, a significant minority of Hillary-supporting gay Democrats intending to vote Republican this fall in the presidential contest. Andrew Belonsky, editor of the gay blog Queerty (no McCain supporters they), observed this phenomenon in Philadelphia, writing in May, “A gay man mentioned that he and many of his friends — all of whom support Hillary Clinton — plan on voting for John McCain if Barack Obama gets the Democratic nomination.”
In 2004, the gay media all but ignored gay Republicans intending to vote for President Bush. They assumed the number would be small because Log Cabin Republicans (the national gay and lesbian GOP group) had failed to endorse the GOP nominee. So, all were surprised when Bush got 23% of the gay vote that year. It was a story the media missed. When I did a follow-up post predicting McCain could substantially improve Bush’s achievement and get as much as 40% of the gay vote, even more such Democrats came out of the woodwork. One reader wrote:

I’m gay, live in San Francisco, voted and donated money to Hillary Clinton. I’ve never voted for a Republican for president — though I did vote for Arnold in 2006. No way in hell am I voting for Obama, and McCain is 95% of the way towards winning my vote. As long as he doesn’t pick an uber-social conservative [running mate], I’m in.

With Obama having since secured the Democratic nomination, I decided to follow up with my Democratic friends and readers who had supported Hillary in the primaries and were supporting McCain in the general election.

Page 1 of 2  Next ->

B. Daniel Blatt blogs at GayPatriot.

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42 Comments

1. lee:

This is good, and Mccain should certainly welcome gay support, but he has to be careful not to appear actively pro gay. I think Mccain’s edge is his moderate image which is worth some loss of conservative support, but you can only lose so much. No presidential candidate won with an OPENLY pro gay agenda. Many Catholics and Christians (even some Muslims?) will abandon MCcain the minute he declares his support for gay marriage.

Without conservatives, religious right, and pro family groups, Mccain’s base will all but disappear.

Jun 22, 2008 - 1:20 am 2. John Samford:

The solution to the gay marriage issue is to ditch the income tax.
It’s ALL about the tax breaks. Get rid of the tax breaks and make raising children a contractual matter and the issue will go away.
Go to some sort of VAT that is based on the money supply, NOT GDP and all sorts of issues will vanish.
This won’t happen, of course. Both left and right use the tax code as a tool to shape society the way they want it. That is why the Tax system is so foooooked up.

Ohhhh…..BAMA wants to talk to the Jihadists. The Jihadists want to behead Ohhhh…..BAMA. Which is more permanent? Muslims hang queers.
I would think that being hung would be an incentive to vote for the candidate that offered me the best change of avoiding being hung.
But, to paraphrase Andrew Dice Clay, ‘I’ve never seen anything attractive about some man’s hairy ass’. So I have no idea why queers think the way they do.
I don’t understand why Hollywood supports the terrorists either. After all, Movie stars will 3rd on the list for standing against the wall, right behind journalists and liberal politicians. Anyone that co-operates with some body that wants to kill them is a useful fool.
The think about useful fools is that once their usefulness is over, they are still fools. The normal process followed by tyrants is to get rid of them before someone else finds a use for them.
Anyone that doesn’t take a man willing to strap a bomb around his waist and set it off in a pizza hut seriously is a fool. When you face MILLIONS of such people, fool isn’t a strong enough word.

Jun 22, 2008 - 2:15 am 3. GayPatriot » Betting on John McCain (to Get More than 30% of Gay Vote):

[...] a taste of my post: Back in February while discussing the housing market with a relator active in the Los Angeles gay [...]

Jun 22, 2008 - 2:24 am 4. NB:

Obama’s biggest problem is a truth known by everyone, gay straight white black male female. It was best articulated by Eesenhower:

“Remember that it is not by a tyrant’s words, but only by his deeds that we can know him”.

And then of course there were the words of Grover Cleveland:

“I would rather the man who presents something for my consideration subject me to a zephyr of truth and a gentle breeze of responsibility rather than blow me down with a curtain of hot wind.”

Jun 22, 2008 - 3:01 am 5. Vince P:

I dont see how any self-respecting American .. especially one who is gay (and thus lucky he’s in America and not Saudi Arabia) could vote for Obama. An Obama victory is going to drive every jihadi into a celebratory frenzy.

Who is the better protector of the most important gay right.. the right to life?

McCain.

I’m a gay guy but also conservative. and while McCain has done nothing to make me enthusiastic to support him, Obama cannot get into the white house. Can you imagine Nation of Islam staffers in the Dept of Justice?

We Americans must support McCain for the sake of the Men and Women in the Military. Please do not forget those who sacrifice everything to keep us safe. The least we can do is swallow our ideological pride and select a Commander in Chief for our military who will honor their sacrifice.

Jun 22, 2008 - 4:36 am 6. queerunity:

gays voting republican are akin to to people voting for facists
http://www.queersunited.blogspot.com

Jun 22, 2008 - 4:51 am 7. DoDoGuRu:

Gay leftists attacking gay conservatives are akin to pirates punishing crew for mutiny.

Jun 22, 2008 - 5:53 am 8. Linda:

queerunity, I must be voting for a facist then because McCain has my vote. I do not trust Obama.

Jun 22, 2008 - 6:17 am 9. Vince P:

I know the Republicans have acted anything but conservative in the past ten years, but queergroupthink dont you think it’s a bit much to say that the Republican party now promotes collectivism and top-down command economy?

Jun 22, 2008 - 6:43 am 10. Vince P:

DoDoGuRu: As with any Left-wing victim group, there’s nothing they hate more than their counterparts who rejected victimhood.

Jun 22, 2008 - 6:44 am 11. Roy M:

Well, former Nay man McCain seems much more mellow about ‘gay issues’ than Bush seemed to be so 30% doesn’t seem like a big ask.

B Daniel’s the friends-of-Hillary-won’t-vote-Obama theme echoes the standard PJM line that no democrats supported Hillary because they thought she was the best democrat to beat McCain. They did it to stop B Obama. This is the PJM line because it is the Republican line. It is the Republican line because, no matter how un-realistic it is, it is their only realistic hope for a win in November. So its got to be true. Its just gotta!

Jun 22, 2008 - 6:48 am 12. Smarty:

Why the heck should McCain waste time and resources going after the what, 20% of the 3% of the the population that is both gay and potentially conservative????? How many conservative principles should he sell down the river for this???? McCain needs to go after the white vote, particularly the white conservative vote. His pandering may help with the hispanic vote, but his focus needs to not be on fringe groups when he has no base.

Jun 22, 2008 - 6:50 am 13. Vince P:

Roy: I’ve been to many geniunely Pro-Hillary sites and a lot of them have thrown their lot with McCain.

I say to the crybaby conservatives.. if Hillary people could put their country above party and give support to McCain, not because they like him, but to stop Barry Hussien.. then why cant’ you.

Jun 22, 2008 - 7:21 am 14. David Thomson:

John McCain is against gay marriage. This is no secret. But you will not be stabbed in the back. You know what you are getting. Is that good enough? Are McCain’s positions regarding national defense and economic growth more to your liking? Only you can make that decision. McCain is also adamantly opposed to Islamic nihilism. Please note that far more gays are murdered by Muslim extremists than the likes of Pat Robertson or the late Jerry Fallwell.

Jun 22, 2008 - 7:23 am 15. Roy M:

Smarty, you put the cart before the horse about pandering.

What is pandering? Creating policy and messages purely to get the vote. Yes?

John McCain does not have to pander to gays to improve his vote amongst gays compared to Bush. He just has to stay true to where he is now. Even if he does not say another word on the relevant to ‘gay issues’. Of course he MIGHT improve his electoral position by pandering to white conservatives by trying to make himself seem more anti-gay but the problem is that there are a significant number of socialy liberal voters who may loose along the way who aren’t gay.

In particular he will fail to gain the only, if illusory hope, for a republican victory: the Hillary Democrat For McCain.

Jun 22, 2008 - 7:39 am 16. Jack G in Big D:

Let me get this straight (no pun intended). Queerunity asserts, “gays voting republican are akin to to people voting for facists.” Facists?!? Really?!?

It might help, queerunity (again, no pun intended), if you made a sound, coherent argument to make your point instead of assassinating the character of those who, shall we say, differ from your particular world view. Wouldn’t it just be easier to make a case in favor of gays voting Democrat? Honestly, you’ll make more converts by persuading them to follow your lead instead of blasting gay voters for supporting a different candidate.

In my case, why would I side with anyone who labels me a facist?

Jun 22, 2008 - 7:56 am 17. Reynolds Butler:

Smarty, I’m gay but I’m an American first and I don’t think McCain should pander to ANY group. There are plenty of patriotic, rational Americans of all races and genders . . . and sexual orientations.

Unlike B. Hussein and his vile, crooked, brainwashed, America-hating cronies, McCain obviously loves this country.

That will be the deciding factor for a lot of voters.

And by the way, I’m a conservative and I’m getting a little fed up with all of the anti-gay rhetoric that’s been floating around lately . . . and I don’t like being lumped into a single group, as if all gays are the same.

Jun 22, 2008 - 8:00 am 18. Roy M:

Vince, interesting that you had to include ‘genuinely’!

I looked for non-official pro-hillary sites. The first one I found was http://www.hillarysupporters.com.

The registrant is

Domains by Proxy, Inc.
DomainsByProxy.com
15111 N. Hayden Rd., Ste 160, PMB 353
Scottsdale, Arizona 85260

It came into existence last month and links to Obama stories in PJM!

Here is another one

http://www.hireheels.com. A wierd one this: sex in the city says don’t vote obama.

the registrant is

Domains by Proxy, Inc.
DomainsByProxy.com
15111 N. Hayden Rd., Ste 160, PMB 353
Scottsdale, Arizona 85260

Show me a real one.

Jun 22, 2008 - 9:05 am 19. WJ:

With regards to the “gay vote” is the author referring to both male and female homosexuals or mostly male?

Which battleground State (ie not firmly “Red or Blue”) would the Americans who are homosexual be a tipping point vote?

Finally, I would hope that an American’s primary concern in voting for a President would be something more than which gender you love. For example, my primary concern is national security cause there is a rather large group of folks out there who want to kill me or enslave me. If we are not strong in our defense of our culture, then the incidents of gay bashing (without a response) in Holland could start to occur here.

Jun 22, 2008 - 9:22 am 20. Vince P:

Roy:
http://www.justsaynodeal.com/

Jun 22, 2008 - 9:37 am 21. Around The Campaign 2008 Sphere June 22, 2008:

[...] BUT MCCAIN NEEDS TO BE GIVEN A LOT OF CREDIT because despite all of the criticism his campaign is getting (see above) his war chest is in a lot better shape the expected. CAN MCCAIN GET THE GAY VOTE? Pajamas Media’s B. Daniel Blatt thinks he has a better chance then many think. [...]

Jun 22, 2008 - 9:39 am 22. Eric:

How many conservative principles should McCain sell down the river for this????

None. He doesn’t have to. Amending the constitution to make marriage primarily a government enterprise is not conservative–it’s stupid. Otherwise, DINK’s (dual-income no kids) have a lot to like about conservatism: low taxes, tough on crime, no more planes flying into buildings. No, we don’t organize circuit parties–Mark Foley excepted–but there’s a lot for gays to like about conservatism.

Jun 22, 2008 - 10:29 am 23. Roy M:

Vince,

That was interesting! I’m sure that you would agree that most of those obviuosly nothing to do with Clintomn Democrats who have turned to Mccain. Like http://www.hillarysuporters.com, or my new favorite http://www.clintons4mccain.com where we learn that Obama is gay (well a sex act a limo anyway).

There were other things about crack cocaine and execution style killings, also.

Clintons4maccain also warns us that Obama wants to grab our guns. An issue top of the list for all Clninton Democrats. Most of these sites are not even competent black propaganda.

I’m not saying there aren’t ANY but the 6 sites I looked at in the time I had re-assured my that Democrats will vote for Obama and McCaine will not be president no matter how many gay people vote for him.

Jun 22, 2008 - 11:55 am 24. Vince P:

I’m gay and against changing marriage. Marriage should be what it always has been.

It’s an abuse of the court’s power for the various courts to do what they have done, and I think the person/groups who started the court actions are extremely selfish and show such a contempt for society and our system of law.

Our society is under an ever-increasing assault from the Left. We have got to restrain the Federal Govt before we can ever turn things around.

My first suggestiojn towards this is to repeal the 17th Amendment so that the States have their voice restored to them at the Federal Level.

Originally, the Senate served a role in constraining the power and size of the Federal Govt because the Senate represented the interest of the States, not the people in the States.

When the “Progressives” passed the XVII Amendment, the Federal Govt became a monster (to borrow a word from Obama’s ex-staff)

2 – Increase the number of seats in the US House of Representitives

3 – Mandate that all Representive districts be as rectangualar as possible and the ratio lentgh:width be as close to 1:1 as possible.

4 – Get rid of most campaign finance laws. Enforce a no-tolerance full-disclosure policy with no contribution limit.

Jun 22, 2008 - 12:00 pm 25. Lang:

Many believe Gays are predominatley democrat, but as a gay man I can tell you this is untrue. Myself and alot of my gay and lesbian friends are conservative and we have no intention of voting democrat. Many of them won’t even vote for the republican candidate because of his views on illegal aliens and the hoax of global warming!

Jun 22, 2008 - 12:35 pm 26. Smarty:

Um, Lang, Berkeley and San Fran, both of which are the gay HQ of America, are so far to the left there is grumbling that Castro has sold out to the capitalists. Are you saying that in those areas, homosexuals are actually bucking the liberals when they vote? How about Key west, is that a bastion of conservative thought?

Jun 22, 2008 - 1:39 pm 27. Qulmos:

I was actually just contemplating whether gays here in American would be truly aware of Obama, especially with how he gets chatty with the leaders of other countries (read: Iran) where they hang gays just for fun.

Jun 22, 2008 - 1:52 pm 28. simon:

McCain has not yet won enough of middle America to get within striking distance of Obama and there is talk of the gay vote. This defines absurdity well. The gay vote is at best less than 5% of the vote and he is considering it worth chasing? Absurd!

McCain will likely not get moderate and conservative Americans on his current course. He is not a moderate but a less and latter democrat.

He like Obama is ignorant of economics, management and world politics. He lives in the world of sound bites and posturing that is inhabited by populists who value self affirmation over justice.

McCain’s service earns him no pass from using reason. Like Obama this man has not studied and served in a manner to be elected president.

Who cares about the gay vote? Not me. They offer only a marginal constituency and are a liability given the demands they place on those they endorse. McCain like Obama would be better served to struggle with the real issues confronting America and formulate policies that reflect the facts and spirit of the American people that playing populist politics.

Jun 22, 2008 - 2:16 pm 29. Dave II:

This article really is just about pointing out one more segment of the population that is having second thoughts about Obama…the point being, of course, it comes from a USUALLY highly reliable source of votes for the Democratic candidate.

This spells doom for Obama, because it will only get WORSE for him as the summer months roll on.

People are seeing that it comes down to one word:

TRUST

And we can’t trust Obama!

Moreover, we CAN trust McCain. We may not agree with all he believes…but we know he is a man of his WORD…and Obama is NOT!

He has shown this time and time again…and just again in the past few days. He goes back on his word!

One of those “Hillary sites” that Roy so crudely put down says it as well as anyone can:

“He’s not qualified, he’s not experienced, he’s not honorable and we don’t trust him to hold the nation’s Highest Office. John McCain is the only viable candidate left who we believe has all those qualities and more.”

Now THAT’S the bottomline, folks!

Jun 22, 2008 - 3:03 pm 30. John Samford:

“In particular he will fail to gain the only, if illusory hope, for a republican victory: the Hillary Democrat For McCain.”

Speaking of illusory!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A7329-2004Jun26?language=printer

From the above URL;
“Since the waning years of the Reagan administration, or basically since the last periodical cicada mating cycle, the number of “other” voters has proliferated. In the 27 states (plus the District of Columbia) that have been registering voters by party since 1987, the Democratic share has plummeted 8 percentage points, declining from an aggregate total of 51 percent to 43 percent. The Republican share has stayed steady at 33 percent. But the proportion of voters who have not identified themselves with either of the major parties has jumped 8 percentage points, from 16 to 24 percent.”

I’m not sure where the WaPo got their numbers. The last time I looked into the raw data was the summer of ‘04 and I found it was 34 Democratic, 33 Republican and 33 other.
Rhodes Cook writes as a journalist for a mediocre newspaper, so the scholarship standards are not very high. No reference on where those numbers came from. Mine came from a tabulation out of the Readers Digest Almanac and Yearbook. No reference that I remember as to where their numbers ( by state, I had to add them up myself) came from.
What I’m getting at is that if you are looking at the ‘08 election as the Democrtatic Party vs the Republican Party, you need to clean your glasses. It has been a couple of generations since party line voting was the norm.
Like always, it will be that 24 to 33 percent in the middle that decide the issue.
Look at it from the POV of ‘core groups’. A core group is the part of the body politic that the voter identifies with the most.
IIRC, according to Zaller’s research, that core group is where that voters authority figure comes from.
So if McCain was real interested in the gay vote, he would look for an endorsement from a prominent gay. No pandering or pissing on value voters (who outnumber gays by a wide margin). Just a simple, quite endorsement.

Hillery Democrats DON’T have to vote for McCain for him to win. They can give big Mac the win by staying home. Ohhhhh…..BAMA is the one who CANNOT win without them.

Jun 22, 2008 - 3:24 pm 31. Eric:

Who cares about the gay vote? Not me.

It’s not the 5% of the population that’s important (though that’s been the margin of victory in the last two elections), it’s changing the perception among moderates and secularists that the GOP cares more about trying to keep gays from marrying than it does about balancing a budget. If we can convince very large segments of the society that a Republican congress isn’t goint to waste its time obsessing about queers and flagburning rather than reforming and limiting government, then we might just peel some of them off from the Democrats.

Jun 22, 2008 - 3:25 pm 32. simon:

Eric-

The GOP has been feeding at the trough these past 8 years. They have looked past the gay issue, the illegal immigration issue, the trade issue, the energy issue, etc to ensure they get their fill. A moderate GOPer is a less and later democrat. They promise the populous less by way of handouts and they ask them to wait longer. Under the GOP the government has expanded these past 8 years.

When you suggest that large segments of society can be convinced if only you are deluding yourself. McCain is no different than Obama. They both are pandering populists who sell sound bites over reason. Neither has had led an organization create something of value. Neither has a grasp of the economic realities that drive economies and nations. Neither appreciates what means to earn a profit.

The democrats will win to the extent that Americans will engage in envy and conspiratorial thinking.

Jun 22, 2008 - 6:32 pm 33. Sean Leslie:

THat’s why I like Carly Fiorina. Google her with Flora TV and her book Tough Choices. In interviews she is smart, really smart, making politicians look dumb in comparison. She articulates modernity that is refreshing yet has spiritual values, wamth, understands the value of entrepreuneurship among women and the young. Rallying around Carly could remake conservatism into something refreshing instead of, like cited above, a bunch of Tammany Hall neanderthals who broke the army, broke the treasury, broke the Constitution, and broke your grandchildren’s wallets.

Jun 23, 2008 - 9:23 am 34. Smarty:

Fiorina is an affirmative action disaster. Her management of HP consisted of taking over Compaq, a move which always serves well to hide profits problems. Then she bailed out before the results were in.

Jun 24, 2008 - 7:25 am 35. Roy M:

Smarty…..or was defenestrated before her work bore fruit…. Hard to tell.

Jun 24, 2008 - 3:26 pm 36. Eric Dondero:

Libertarian Bob Barr is much more likely to get a significant portion of the Gay vote.

Jun 24, 2008 - 7:00 pm 37. Commentary » Blog Archive » Could He Get More Than 30%?:

[...] Here is a column speculating that John McCain could get 30% or more of a group of voters (many of whom were Hillary Clinton supporters) who traditionally have been in the Democrats’ corner, in part because of concerns about Barack Obama’s competence and integrity. And it’s not Jews. [...]

Jun 25, 2008 - 3:32 am 38. PJ:

People want to know about the Hillary supporters that are getting behind McCain.
PUMA power!
Here’s my NObama blog, I have several posts on the “PUMAs” that will *NOT* vote for Obama:
http://no-bama.blogspot.com/
Here are links galore to over a hundred such “NObama” type sites, many of them
Hillary supporters:
http://www.nobamanetwork.com/

McCain’s VP should be Marsha Blackburn or Gov Sanford

Jun 25, 2008 - 8:17 am 39. chrisc:

As a Hillary democrat who is conservative on economic and war issues I will be supporting McCain. Obama will be another Carter and will lead this country to disaster. beware the orators who promise you heaven but instead lead you to the gates of hell.

Jun 25, 2008 - 1:28 pm 40. Radtop:

McCin shouldn’t kowtow to any special groups. If someone doesn’t think he will be a better President than Obama, we’re in deep trouble.

Jun 25, 2008 - 6:11 pm 41. Matt:

I’m gay and also voting for McCain. Barack will be an absolute nightmare for our beloved country…I know very few people actually voting for him. Most of my gay friends like Ron Paul, but are voting John McCain in Nov.

I ask nothing but to be treated equally under the laws of the United States.

Marriage? The least of our problems!

Jun 30, 2008 - 8:11 am 42. Ron Nicholson:

Those who are gay and vote for John Mccain just are not listening to his promises. He promises to appoint justices on the Supreme Court in the mode of Scalia and Thomas. Those two “justices” have a record of virulent opposition to any gay rights, and when McCain appoints another such justice, the advances we have made in Gay rights will be trashed by the new court. I voted and worked for Hillary. Obama was no my first choice, but I have not the slighest doubt that he will appoint Supreme Court Justices who will be friendly to gay rights. That alone is a reason to vote for Obama and against McCain.

Jul 8, 2008 - 9:21 pm

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