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Cracks Begin to Show in the Iranian Regime
Evidence abounds that the mullahs are very, very worried about losing control. (Update: Breaking news on the protests here.)
There are two deciding factors in whether the Green Revolution will reverse the travesty of the Islamic Revolution of 1979: the emotion of the Revolutionary Guards personnel that are the regime’s last line of defense, and the people’s willingness to march onto the government buildings that the regime operates from. For the most part, the demonstrations have been limited to public squares and universities. There have been reports of protesters overtaking police stations and attacking Basiji outposts, but if they march closer to government offices, forcing the regime’s leaders to flee or fill the streets with blood, what will the Revolutionary Guards do? Will they be able to hold their ranks together and massacre innocents who look like their sons and daughters for the sake of a regime that has brought nothing but misery and isolation to them?
This elite security force consists of some highly devoted operatives who have engaged in terrorism and torture again and again, yet there are also those who joined for the job security and benefits it provides when most are in despair because of the dire economic situation. Others surely have joined and have had a change of heart since being exposed to the inner workings of the brutality machine known as the state security forces. However, there will remain a portion who are attracted to that very brutality.
Should the Iranian regime launch a Tiananmen Square redux, there will undoubtedly be major defections from the Revolutionary Guards, but will there be enough discord to allow for forces to dissolve and for the masses to overwhelm their attackers? It doesn’t take many evil people with weapons to create an impenetrable wall of gunfire, especially if they shoot from inside and on top of buildings and behind large barricades, but cracks are starting to show in the regime that may prove fatal.
Recognizing that the local Basiji, Ansar Hezbollah, police, and army cannot be counted upon to stop the masses in Tehran, Ayatollah Khamenei has reportedly put the Revolutionary Guards in charge of security for the capital city. One member of the security forces was asked by the Los Angeles Times how he’d react to such orders. He said that he and many others at his base supported the demonstrators and stated, “I would never do it. … I would never fire on any of these people myself.”
There are believable rumors on Twitter, the main battleground in the information war right now, that local police have been seen arresting violent Basiji members — and some of the militiamen even laying down their arms. Others are fearfully covering their faces so they can’t be identified.
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Ryan Mauro is the founder of WorldThreats.com and the director of intelligence at the Asymmetrical Warfare and Intelligence Center (AWIC). He’s also the national security researcher for the Christian Action Network and a published author. He can be contacted at TDCAnalyst@aol.com.
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47 Comments
1. David W. Lincoln:Wow! I remember the days of turmoil in the streets when the Shah was left hanging by the Carter Administration.
It also reminds me a saying of the August, 1991 putsch, when Yeltsin said that a person cannot make a throne of bayonets.
Well, the Mullahs are trying it, but no one would want to sit on that kind of chair forever.
Jun 19, 2009 - 8:15 am 2. Paul -Indiana:Allah’s will?
Jun 19, 2009 - 8:21 am 3. Roland:With Khamenei having ordered Mousavi to join him in a prayer service today at Tehran University, and Mousavi’s refusal to do so, a clear shift in the Iranian conflict has taken place. Rather than Khamenei backing Ahmadinejad from behind the scenes, the struggle has now become one of Mousavi clearly against Supreme Leader Khamenei. Mousavi has told his followers not to go to the service (http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2009/06/mousavi_tells_supports_dont_go.asp) and as such, the conflict is not merely on the level of the “purported” democracy in Iran, but on the very level of societal organization, and a questioning of the mullah hegemony. Very interesting indeed…
Jun 19, 2009 - 8:25 am 4. Hyphenated American:What Iranian Dissidents and American patriots should do (new and improved post)
http://hyphenatedamericans.blogspot.com/2009/06/what-iranian-dissidents-and-american.html
Does it matter if Mussavi is as bad as Ahmie?
http://hyphenatedamericans.blogspot.com/2009/06/does-it-matter-if-mussavi-is-as-bad-as.html
A view of a Russian immigrant on the events in Iran
Jun 19, 2009 - 8:44 am 5. Don:http://hyphenatedamericans.blogspot.com/2009/06/what-is-happening-in-iran-view-of.html
Obviously the Mullahs are not popular with the students and urban professionals, but they are a minority. I suspect most Iranians back the government and its current policies, which appear to be on a wining streak; the U.S wants to talk and appease, the Iranians want and will get their Nuclear weapons. China, Russia, and Europe are more interested in selling weapons and trading for oil with the Mullahs than insuring “freedom” for the common Iranian who, by the way, already thinks they’re free. Besides, it’s easier for Obama to lean on the” racist Jews” building settlements in the West bank than taking on the Iran’s covert uranium enrichment. As Obama’s press secretary reminds us, “We won,” meaning the election last November. This is true. Of course, O.J. Simpson won too, but that didn’t make him any less a killer.
Jun 19, 2009 - 9:03 am 6. Fragmentarian:A country cannot kill all its citizens. This regime is finished. It has no credibility however long it lasts. What’s the president waiting for? Come down on the right side of history, right now!
Jun 19, 2009 - 9:43 am 7. ella:don
You are wrong. He is not popular only with students and urban professionals but he is also not popular with city poor people and with some people in the provinces.
Tell me would you support president who told you that:
you will have better economic situation and
said that he will give you money for getting married (in iran man has to pay some money to his future wife)
and will assure that prices for apartment will get down (you are still living with your parents because you don’t have money to buy or rent apartment) and
price of food stuff will go down
and says that will fight corruption
and say that in your poor province there would be new factory/or money for jobs
and say that factory manager would pay your wages (many workers in some factories are not paid wages for some time)
and then
he will not give you money to pay to family of your wife
the prices of apartments did not go down but up
prices of food stuff go up
there are no jobs on the market
there is no factory in your province
gasoline is much dearer
your manager did not paid you money
there is more corruption, not less
you see rich are getting richer
Would you support such a president?
It’s economy stupid!
Jun 19, 2009 - 9:51 am 8. Hotpatch 6:All this talk about students versus urban professionals versus rural folks forgets the first rule of Islam: If Allah wills it, so be it. How do you think so amy billions of people have been held in bondage in Islamic countries for so long? Because Allah wills it!! (And the Ayatollahs and Mullahs just love that rule!)
Jun 19, 2009 - 9:58 am 9. John the Libertarian:Great coverage, Ryan.
Jun 19, 2009 - 10:05 am 10. X Contra:Here is what makes me wonder: When will the Hamas and Hezbollah suicide bombers start scything through the crowds in Iran?
http://bit.ly/mZ5T7
Jun 19, 2009 - 10:08 am 11. anton:If the mullahs are using Arabs (Hamas & Hezbollah) as foot soldiers in Iran they must be desperate. There is little love between Arab and Persian, and seeing Arabs attacking civilians in the street is the sort of thing that will cause even an RG to rethink his positions.
Perhaps there is hope after all……..
Jun 19, 2009 - 10:19 am 12. gclarke:If in early 1938 the German people rose up against Hitler and his minority party of Nazis, would even Neville Chamberlain refuse to support the Freedom Agenda in Germany, so he could negotiate with Hitler over the partition of Czechoslavakia? I don’t think so but that is what our Supreme-Leader-Wannabe Obama wants to do. Never met a leftist yet who didn’t side with the tyrants, instinctively. Alinsky and Ayers trained Obama well, didn’t they. I would never be ashamed of the US, ever, but I am really ashamed of its really useless and counterproductive government and I wish I never had to give another red cent ever.
Jun 19, 2009 - 10:21 am 13. Professor Guvinoff:The vulnerability of the demonstrators is their defenselessness against bullets. The vulnerability of the regime is the questionable foundation of the republican guards loyalty. There is no theory available to predict which side is more vulnerable than the other, but there have been dramatic changes in the neighborhood, both Iraq and Afghanistan.
Is this not empirical evidence that the tyrants can indeed be defeated, one way or another? Anyone cares to comment on the impact of this, or is it an unsurmountable taboo?
Jun 19, 2009 - 10:38 am 14. Folklight:Iran’s Theocracy is facing social revolution and a repudiation of the underlying source of their continuing power. The dream of a caliphate is not a national dream, rather it’s a fading dream of ideologues. You can not force anyone to believe something, humans must choose to believe. That is God given volition.
The Wise Choose to use it in pursuit of truth.
http://www.iranhumanrights.org/
Jun 19, 2009 - 10:53 am 15. jodetoad:http://www.campus-watch.org/article/id/5 53:
http://www.mei.edu/: http://www.wsu.edu/~dee/ISLAM/CALIPH.HTM
Tyrants can be and have been defeated. But the old question ‘would you rather die on your feet or live on your knees’ applies. Clearly some Iranians prefer to die on their feet. We Americans had help during the American Revolution, our forces were outmatched by the British. We still suffered shocking losses.
The mullahs have the will to assert power, I do hope the people of Iran have some help, somewhere. If their revolt continues, their losses are likely to skyrocket.
Jun 19, 2009 - 11:01 am 16. Don:Dear Ella, who I support is irrelevant, I don’t live in Iran. “It’s the economy stupid!” may well be the case, but people have been know to do all sorts of crazy things that violate their immediate “objective” economic interests; after all, six hundred thousands Americans died over the issue of ending slavery.
Jun 19, 2009 - 11:04 am 17. Meryl:Please continue to notice whether or not you ever catch POTUS using the following phrases with anything approaching enthusiasm or conviction:
freedom
individual liberty
oppose tyranny
hearts yearning to breathe free
Iranian citizens who love their country
…or anything close to these phrases.
Shoot, he doesn’t even use this kind of language on behalf of the United States of America. Nobody should be shocked that he doesn’t care about liberty and freedom from tyranny in Iran.
Jun 19, 2009 - 11:40 am 18. JED:The old song of blaming the Israelites is going to be hard to play. The US has received some blame for aggitation. The internet, cell phones, and twitters are said to bear responsibility in the riots. If the Revolutionary Guard can not hold the line, then inviting the infidel Russians in to stabilize the country becomes an option on the table. How far would the Supreme Council go to maintain control is symbolized by that fountain of youth martyr blood? What type of government would the Iranians produce becomes a near impossible question.
Jun 19, 2009 - 11:43 am 19. Steve:Let us all hope the people of Iran prevail and the Mullahs are cast aside as well as the Revolutionary Guard or that they give up the fight for a country that is following the wrong path to governance of the people.
Hell if Iran actually wanted a Nuclear Power plant they would already have it and would be provided the necessary fuel for a price if they really were trying to do that, but no they are trying to develop a nuclear weapon. They do not have a congress like ours in the united states (intentional lower caps) that seems intent on not only using our own resources but putting them off limits and regulations that prohibit the development of nuclear plants.
The old “Death to America” chant seems to be losing its charm and glow. Apparently Iranians have had enough of the mullahs already and are showing it daily.
Jun 19, 2009 - 12:03 pm 20. AThinkingPerson:#17 Meryl….Great post!
Jun 19, 2009 - 12:23 pm 21. Dave ll:A vast POPULAR uprising is very hard to contain.
Recent examples are Poland, Romania, the Phillipines, and, certainly, Russia, but one thing these all required (as opposed to what happened in China) were “cracks” appearing in the security forces will, and the ultimate refusal of those with the guns to fire on their own people.
It will have to come to that “tipping point” where the Revolutionary Guards either refuse to obey or actually turn on their mullah masters.
And what makes it possible is continued massive demonstrations and maybe even a bloody massacre- type event to galvanize the participants.
This is looking more and more like it’s headed in that direction…
Jun 19, 2009 - 12:34 pm 22. Flipside:If the Iranian population takes over Gov. buildings it’s over….Obambi should take notice. I wonder if Putin should get that last invoice out and demand payment in 5 days….it’s not looking too good in Iran.
Jun 19, 2009 - 1:05 pm 23. Ted:It’s a bit funny and a bit pathetic that Americans need to look to the example of an oppressed people (Iranians) to learn how to dethrone their own Ayatollah.
Ai Ai Ai
Jun 19, 2009 - 1:08 pm 24. Paul -Indiana:The Mullahs will start shooting people in the street. This will end with them being still in charge. They will simply claim that ‘the infidels did it’.
Jun 19, 2009 - 1:36 pm 25. Natalie:I really didn’t like the way he said that further protestors would be held accountable for their actions. Sure, the protest they had was violent, but surely there’s no reason to not allow a peaceful protest.
How To Lose 10 Pounds In A Month
Jun 19, 2009 - 1:41 pm 26. Jack:The Ayatollah of America has already declared that Tea party attendess are officially “enemies of the state”.
Is that not similarly evidence that the DNC Mullahs are likewise concerned?
Proverbs 28:1
Jun 19, 2009 - 2:23 pm 27. Cybergeezer:The wicked man flees though no one pursues, but the righteous are as bold as a lion.
This would have been a perfect scenario for the CIA; But Obama has told them he’s the boss.
Jun 19, 2009 - 2:34 pm 28. Sherab Zangpo:I see cracks in the axis Ayatollahs-Chavez-Castro-internationalists.
Wouldn’t it be good to see ANOTHER fall of the internationalist subversion after the one we saw in 1989-1991 ?
Poor things, history keeps going in the other direction.
And when you think…. they had just put a Manchurian candidate in the White House…you must really feel their suffering.
Maybe Soros can send some money to help the Ayatollahs.
Thank you for the opportunity to comment.
Jun 19, 2009 - 2:49 pm 29. DavidN:From what I’ve read, the mullahs are popular with some young men, who are allowed by their position to become thugs for the Revolutionary Guards, and wander the streets harassing people, especially young women. There also of course is a conservative religious element. One book I read, however, made an interesting point. If you’re a lower-level Muslim cleric, in Tehran, one thing you can’t do is hail a taxi. None of them will stop for you. The Mullahs, of course, ride around in armored limousines, but the lower-level guys are poor and have to take a cab, or ride the bus. They’re so disliked, however, that the cab option is usually out. I agree with the author: the issue is going to be whether the guards are willing to shoot unarmed people in large numbers. If they do, things may unravel as a result of that; if not, then the regime is probably screwed, unless they can figure out a way to connect the opposition to the West believably.
Jun 19, 2009 - 4:02 pm 30. Brian:Im not in iran but given the nature of totalitarian states,i can guarantee that there is section of armed forces who dont like the regime at all.The Iranian regime has lost credibility within Islam itself.That will be catalyst,along with womens rights that will push it over the edge.Obama can condemn any action taken against the protestors but given the unique nature of Iran-Us relations,hes wise to stay out of it.We must remember this ,all nations peoples who are with the UN are protected by the universal declaration of human rights.Have we forgotten that charter?I havent and wont be afraid to speak out about it even if obama cant at the moment.
Jun 19, 2009 - 6:01 pm 31. MiamaMan:15. jodetoad:
1) [We Americans had help during the American Revolution, our forces were outmatched by the British. We still suffered shocking losses.]
Totally correct, my friend. Even Washington said that defeating the British was close to a miracle. We must acknowledge that without the French, the current US would be very different, but them we paid them back twice, and with interest.
2) [The mullahs have the will to assert power, I do hope the people of Iran have some help, somewhere. If their revolt continues, their losses are likely to skyrocket.]
Yes, God help them. It is uplifting to watch the pics of the Iranian young women, beautiful even with their heads covered, but then looking fearless.
Jun 19, 2009 - 6:25 pm 32. Anonymous:Rock the Casbah! Go Iranians!
Jun 19, 2009 - 6:47 pm 33. Realist:Strange how the left wing Moonbats Sheesh, Free Hat and his alter ego The Stranger are absent from this thread must be because Obambi has not yet told them what they should think.
Jun 19, 2009 - 8:37 pm 34. sherlock:Too bad Obama isn’t smart enough to point out that over 500 years ago Christians decided that no one person spoke for God, and how that ignited a flowering of not only Earthly achievement, but also of faith. Allah isn’t the problem here: the problem is the punishing conformity demanded by those who claim that they alone speak for him.
Jun 19, 2009 - 8:56 pm 35. Typos_R_us:ella, #7 Don seems (not real sure, his post can be read both ways, since the irony factor is unknown) to support the Usurper Obama , who did all those things and more.
So far the Usurper hasn’t completed a single major campaign promise. He has jacked unemployment from 4.5 to 9.5 percent. The troops are still in Iraq and homosexuals still can’t molest children in the streets. Gitmo is still in business and his stimulus checks are smaller then President Bush’s yet cost more. Not sure how they worked that miracle of economics.
The economy is sliding down hill fast and the Usurper doesn’t care, or at least he isn’t willing to take steps to end the economic collapse of America, which is the biggest reason why the rest of the world is having economic problems.
AS far as Iran, it doesn’t matter to America. Which ever nutbag is selected by the Mad Dog Mullahs (hereafter MDM), he will have the same policies as the nutbag he is replacing. So no matter how many people the revolutionary guards gun down, NOTHING WILL CHANGE.
Jun 19, 2009 - 9:06 pm 36. Delia:There are only two possible souces of change, External and Internal. Internal can only happen if the Army is willing to fight the MDMN thugs AND strong enough to win. There is no sign of the first, which doesn’t mean anything because if the outside world could see signs of the Army going rogue, the MDM would see it first and kill a bunch of Army leaders.
As for as the Army winning, I don’t think so.
As far as an external event to force regime change, only the USA has the power and President Bush chickened out on that in ‘04. The Usurper is not going to order an invasion of Iran, nor even military action in the form of airstikes against the MDM’s bully boys ( called the Internal-External offensive like in Afghanistan in ‘01).
The Last time the USA ‘helped’ another country’s revolution was in 1896 or 7 ( I forget exactly) when we took on the Spanish for the Philippines. That got us a guerrila that lasted until 1916 and was worse then Vietnam and MUCH worse the Iraq.
That is a big reason why Ike passed on Berlin in ‘45 ( He was worried about the Nazi’s forting up in the mountains of Bavaria and doing guerrilla for the next 2 generations) and refused to help the Hungarians in ‘56.
Look at how much trouble the USA is having in Iraq and Afghanistan. By now even the village idiot has figured out that the USA has no desire to build an empire by adding turd world pestholes to the Union. Yet still they fight on.
The USA could invade Iran. Right now it would mean putting another 250,000 troops INTO Iraq. It would take at least 6 months to get ready and the whole time people would be screaming about how we were supposed to be pulling troops OUT. Then after we brought down the regime in Iran, with the cost of several hundred American lives and thousands of Iranians, our reward would be another 10 years of guerrillas.
No thanks.
I’m all for doing nothing in this case. If you Iranians want to kill each other, I’m good with that. You and thousands of your buds could be dead by next week. ALL for NOTHING. It makes no difference who the President of Iran is. For change, you need to get rid of EVERY Mullah in Iran. That ain’t gonna happen.
True freedom fighters can be depicted by the people railing against forces that would have their heads and insist on their deaths and yet they march on in droves knowing that they may not see tomorrow. THAT is HOPE and CHANGE in those who would risk their lives to overthrow their ‘leaders’.
Vs.
People who bemoaned a president who kept us safe after a personal attack, a president who was openly ridiculed and cruelly treated by people who were partisan jerks who now, seeing the result of what BUSH did by spreading the idea of ‘freedom’ to the Mid-East have backed off backing up ‘freedom’ for people who are so desperate for it.
What could we expect from a fraud-in-chief though? He bows and scrapes and then plays ‘possum’ when it comes to real WORLD decisions.
The first nuke is headed towards a coward who thinks his jokes are funny and his farts don’t stink.
This outta be interesting if not utterly tragic.
Jun 19, 2009 - 11:00 pm 37. Marc Malone:The nastiest/best tactic to use would be to assassinate Mousavi, and blame it on the Mullahs. Instant civil war! Then we could “lend arms assistance”, and at the same time, make sure that this thug, Mousavi, does not rise to legitimate power. Maybe a couple special forces raids during the civil war “to enable the arms shipments”. Maybe a UN-sanctioned no-fly deal “to limit collateral damage”.
This nasty bit of realpolitik would stop the nuke program cold. Then, if it looks like the uprising will succeed, we could do a French-at-Saratoga thing. The Mullahs die, and the new Iranian regime befriends us….
Jun 19, 2009 - 11:55 pm 38. Marc Malone:I just got censored again. I profferred a true realpolitik suggestion of exactly how we could take advantage of this situation. This happens to me time-to-time here. I tire of this censorship. I am not being unreasonable. I offer things that have a historical basis, whether they are PC these days or not. It is a cold, cruel world out there, and if our enemies had a chance to do the same to us, they would.
I suggested a nasty way of triggering a civil war in Iran by assassinating Mousavi, and how we could exploit it. The benefits to us would be tremendous, but I guess this is verboten, here, even if it completely destroys the threat of a rogue nuclear strike.
We’ll see if this post makes it past the censorship.
Jun 20, 2009 - 12:48 am 39. Marc Malone:Nevermind on my last post. My screen didn’t display my previous message, even after leaving and returning. My apologies.
Jun 20, 2009 - 12:49 am 40. logdon:Change you can believe in? In Iran it looks to be heading that way. As for Obama’s empty rhetoric?
The man is a narcissistic marxist turncoat. Without America he would be nothing, yet he trawls around the globe, talking of a corrupted US, apologising for all the so called misdeeds and praising Islam to the skies whilst picking on beleagured Israel as fall guy.
We’ve got plenty of those here in Britain and our rage is reaching boiling point.
We’ve seen our so called socialists feather nest and line pockets at our expense and the anger is unprecedented.
We’ve seen our cities divided and ripped apart by ingrate muslims, here for our welfare or easy jobs but nothing else.
Now in one of our towns, namely Luton, over run by burkas, headscarves and allahu akhbar chanting mobs rioters disrupted a muslim meeting. And attacked the Sikh Mayor.
In Belfast locals have harrassed immigrant Rumanians who have now been put up in a church hall for their own safety. They are leaving.
This civil unrest wil not go away. At last we are fighting the islamic colonisation of Britain and the disaster of nation stripping multiculturalism.
Meanwhile in Iran we have now the honour of being mentioned by Khanomi in Friday prayers as being evil interlopers.
The irony is not lost on us. We are hated in the ME and Pakistan yet they come here, are welcomed with open arms by a Gov importing its own voting bloc and do not make one iota of effort to adapt. Rather they seek to impose their medieval barbarism upon us all.
The game is up. Britain will not submit quietly and the tipping point is arriving.
Labour will be trounced and te next lot had better shape up or the fringe right wingers will succeed. Then the muslims willhave cause to worry.
And you know what? All this unrest and upheaval is created by a gov, who like Obama thought it could walk on water and make us all chattels to the state.
The dream is over. Reality bites. We’ve had enough.
You guys have three more years of a man who can’t even produce a proper birth certificate. You had your, ‘The One’, Diana moment and will pay for that airhead foolishness.
America will survive. There’s too much at stake for failure. But there’s a rough ride ahead. Hold on to your seats, and nerve. This will pass.
Jun 20, 2009 - 3:32 am 41. Folklight:Marc Malone:
Jun 20, 2009 - 6:15 am 42. Marie Claude:Your scenario is more than viable and likely a reason Iran’s Theocracy (or it’s puppet master) has not already used that option… BTW …
Where is Sistani??
http://www.iran-resist.org/article5440.html
the last “true” casualties
Jun 20, 2009 - 8:19 am 43. Marie Claude:http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23745.html
Leverett & Hilary Mann Leverett on Iran
this explains Obama’s position
Jun 20, 2009 - 9:15 am 44. Marie Claude:attention
An Egyptian guy found out that the baby picture was taken out of this Pal video
http://bit.ly/SHZof
that the Iran-Resist site owner (pro Reza Pahlavi) set in his site
and that I used to trust
Jun 20, 2009 - 4:20 pm 45. Marie Claude:the baby pic has been removed following my mail
Jun 20, 2009 - 8:58 pm 46. Barry 0351:No one who looked into Neda Soltani’s eyes as she died will ever go back to what was before. The Mullah’s of this regime and Amadhidinjahed are finished ya just cannot shoot down a woman in front of the whole world and survive.
Jun 22, 2009 - 1:45 pm 47. JK:Kamheni and his cabal are headed for someplace else or they will surely face the Mussolini justice.
I think most of you all are getting a little ahead of yourselves in predicting the end of the Iranian regime. These folks have been in power a long time and know how to stay in power. And as for their recent loss of credibility because of the extremely harsh crackdown on mostly peaceful demonstrators, trust me, this government lost its credibility with lots of Iranians decades ago. It came to power the same way, through force and elimination of any opposing groups. The only difference is that now it’s caught on video.
I was born in Iran and I loathe the regime there. But it doesn’t make me receptive at all to any suggestion that the U.S. should go in there and “fix” things. Obama is doing the right thing by staying out and maintaining a low profile. Anyone who is arguing for a U.S. fix either doesn’t know 20th century Iranian history or knows it and is too self-righteous to learn the lessons from such history. Iranians have to fix this mess themselves.
Jun 30, 2009 - 11:31 pm