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Did Israel Send a Warning to Iran? Did Iran Get the Message?
Despite Ahmadinejad's tough talk, some in Tehran are taking Israel's recent aerial message very seriously. And they are worried.
The news that the Israeli Air Force staged a long range aerial exercise, similar to a possible attack on Iran has not been well received in Tehran. Ahmadinejad’s close allies, such as government spokesman Ghomreza Elham, called it “impossible.” This statement is pretty much in line with the president’s belief that Israel would never dare to attack Iran, thus refusing to even consider it as a remote possibility.
However, other more pragmatic figures among the conservatives, such as Majles Spokeman Ali Larijani, are becoming more concerned about the increasing talk from Israel regarding the possibility of an attack. While warning that Israel could suffer more from the consequences of such an attack against Iran, Larijani and others have a right to be worried.
Iran’s recent refusal to accept the EU’s newly offered incentives package to halt uranium enrichment is convincing more countries that Iran is not interested in any kind of a deal over its nuclear program. Furthermore, Ahmadinejad’s continuous threats against Israel are persuading more people and officials in the West that a nuclear Iran would be a grave danger to stability in the Middle East. Unlike Ahmadinejad, Larijani has extensive experience in dealing with foreign affairs. This has enabled him to understand that such an atmosphere could provide justification for an attack against his country. This view is being supported by some of Iran’s news agencies, such as Tabnak, who tried to calm frail nerves in Tehran by translating an article published in Haaretz into Farsi, in which it is said that the recent simulations do not necessarily mean that there is going to be a war soon. The message of the Haaretz article is so important to Tabnak that it tried its best to give the newspaper full credibility by calling it a “credible” newspaper. This is a change from the norm. Iranian press usually label Israel’s press as “Zionist propaganda.”
Domestic concerns are some of the biggest reasons behind Ahmadinejad’s constant championing of the nuclear program and his threats against Israel. Through such behavior, Ahmadinejad is trying to distract the attention of the local population away from their economic miseries. In addition, he wants to isolate reformists and pragmatists who want better relations with the West.
This is becoming an even more valid concern, as there are reports from Iran that the reformist Ayatollah Khatami will be running as a candidate for the presidential elections of 2009. He will be a tough competitor for Ahmadinejad. Last but not least, there is the question of oil. Ahmadinejad has learned a neat pony trick of pushing oil prices with his threats, thus generating more income for his government.
General Von Clausewitz, the famous Prussian Strategist, is well known for his quote “war is the continuation of politics by other means.” Such thinking is taught in all major military academies around the world.
However, the more Iran stonewalls the international community, and continues to threaten Israel with elimination, the more it encourages those who believe that Iran’s current behavior has no clear political goal. It is only military, thus war is the only option. This is especially true when it comes to Israel. Tehran’s recent behavior towards Israel is convincing more Israelis that the political reality of a nuclear Iran is something impossible to live with — and impossible to resolve through dialogue with any party. Although Jerusalem must do its utmost to support international talks with Iran, nevertheless it doesn’t hurt to remind president Ahmadinejad that a country whom he has called a “germ” can stand up for itself.
Sending 100 planes to stage maneuvers in the Mediterranean is one way of doing this.
Ahmadinejad may not care, but many pragmatists in Iran have taken notice of such a gesture, and an unnecessary war with Israel because of Ahmadinejad’s reckless talk is something they want to avoid. Ahmadinejad has already ruined Iran’s economy. They don’t want Iran’s nuclear program in ashes as well.
The recent aerial message from Israel should be taken as a sign that relations between the West and Iran are reaching a crisis point.
It is time for compromises and a negotiated settlement, if at all possible, enabling Iran to achieve its right to nuclear energy for civilian purposes, and for the West to live safe in the knowledge that Iran will not make a nuclear bomb.
Meir Javedanfar is the co-author with Yossi Melman of The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the State of Iran. He runs Middle East Economic and Political Analysis (MEEPAS).
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23 Comments
1. harry:Are we to get excited over “reformists”? What sort of reform would happen? Has anyone seen reform in Iran since 1979? Reform in Iran is like the summer weather going from hazy hot and humid to just hot. Does anyone expect a cool breeze here?
Jun 23, 2008 - 7:02 am 2. Saltherring:Israel has been fighting for its very survival for 60 years since reclaiming some of its historic territory. To Israelis, Iran and big-mouth Ahmadinejad are just the next speed bumps on freedom’s highway.
Iran’s second-rate defenses would be no match for Israeli-enhanced F-15s and F-16s….but Iran already knows that. Iran’s people need to take to the streets and depose the oppressive, medieval mullahs.
Jun 23, 2008 - 7:46 am 3. sepehr:It is not Iran who should be worried. It is the US. We have you under out thumb in the middle east.
Jun 23, 2008 - 10:06 am 4. Dave:INterestingly, Ha’aretz is the leftist Israeli paper, like the Times or the WaPo.. so when THEY conclude that an exercise is just an exercise, and do not attribute it to ‘warmongers’, well then of COURSE the Iranians can trust that summation.
Jun 23, 2008 - 10:31 am 5. Cletus:We need to be supporting the young persian dissidents in Iran. The students and other young people who want to return to pre-Islamic ways and revive the old Persian culture and identity. There are many of them, and the U.S, Israel and other western countries should be funnelling them materials, weapons, money, and training, the way they did with afghanistan or tried to do with the contras
Jun 23, 2008 - 11:56 am 6. Alek:Ah Sepehr, your delusions of Persian grandeur are quite amusing. Doubtless Iran can muster many teenage boys without rifles to run into minefields like the Basij, but Iran’s conventional military forces are no match for the United States. The only hope for Iran in the event of conlfict with Israel is to activate its sleeper cells around the world to cause general mayhem and then also activate Hamas and Hezbollah rocket forces to attack Israel. In that scenario, the “Great Powers” would demand a quick end to the conflict and limit the damage Israel can inflict. But Mr. Bush showed extraordinary patience compared to previous administrations in allowing Israel time to attack Hezbollah in the summer war. So only a mad Iranian leader would seek conflict now. If Mahmoud was smart, he would play nice like Hugo Chavez is now doing with FARC and hope Obama wins the election. Then he can resume his great “crusade” to rid the world of Zionism.
Jun 23, 2008 - 12:07 pm 7. Kay:Its the political end of ‘warfare’ that we have issues with in Iraq, and has nothing to do with military power itself. We could completely eliminate Iran’s physical army/navy/air force inventories in a few hours time with little or no losses. We are not at WAR with an Iraqi army, so things look tedious as we are not just blowing up huge numbers of tanks and mowing down troops. If we just wanted to kill a fighting force en masse, there’s no military that would stand up. So I’m not sure what delusions Sepehr has, but it is hilarious.
Israel should just go ahead and take out the facilities, nothing will come of it. Most countries have no issues whatsoever with the Iranian people, just the idiot in charge. A simple surgical strike is a cakewalk for the IAF as we have seen before.
Jun 23, 2008 - 2:44 pm 8. DrKrbyLuv:So far, Iran has pretty much thumbed their noses at Israel and the United States. I was very disappointed when our Congress, pushed by AIPAC, seems prepared to empower and suggest that Bush blockade Iran. This is a war we can and must avoid.
Our press has been far to complicit in going along with the ramping up of the war effort.
More recently; Iran’s President Amadinajab has been more honest with the American people than our Government regarding the oil crisis. He said that the high cost of oil was due to the dropping dollar and he tantalizes us with a reference to “artificial forces” in the chain. What artificial forces?
We are now seeing what he means in an unfolding scandal – the Enron loophole; X-Senator Phil Gramm’s hit on America. Witness what happened today (check the link listed below):
“Testifying to the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Michael Masters of Masters Capital Management said that the price of oil would quickly drop closer to its marginal cost of around $65 to $75 a barrel, about half the current $135.”
“Fadel Gheit of Oppenheimer & Co., Edward Krapels of Energy Security Analysis and Roger Diwan of PFC Energy Consultants agreed with Masters’ assessment at a hearing on proposed legislation to limit speculation in futures markets.”
Krapels said that it wouldn’t even take 30 days to drive prices lower, as fund managers quickly liquidated their positions in futures markets.”
Can this possibly be true??? Oil prices slashed in half in 30 days???
And if it is true, who are the speculators (Amadinajab’s “artificial forces”) and did individuals from Bush’s Administration or Congress profit from this grand theft?
Did Iran just “snitch-out” our crooked Government?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gas-could-fall-2-if/story.aspx?guid=%7B2673C102%2D68E0%2D41D9%2D9C9A%2D10EE2E723948%7D
Jun 23, 2008 - 5:58 pm 9. cubanbob:To what extent Israel can destroy Iranian nuclear facilities I don’t know. However when the leader of a nation declares that your nation has no right to exist and will be annihilated as soon as the capability is acquired, why wait?
Israel ought to strike while she can and inflict the maximum damage she can.
Besides the nuclear facilities Israel ought to if she can is destroy Iran’s oil refineries,oil export terminals and electrical power grid. Iran will certainly not be able to make progress after such an attack on its nuclear weapons program. Such an attack might even frighten the Arab world enough to back down from from supporting the Jihadi’s.
Jun 23, 2008 - 6:57 pm 10. RAK in Texas:I agree with most of this editorial, but your final conclusion that Iran should be enabled to “achieve its right to nuclear energy for civilian purposes” strikes me as utterly ridiculous. Isn’t it obvious that the only purpose Iran has in having a nuclear energy program is to build nuclear weapons? Iran’s notion of nuclear “energy” is using the energy released in a nuclear explosion to kill infidels. The longer we wait before destroying their facilities, the more likely they will achieve their genocidal goals. (And yes, it really is as simple as that.)
Jun 23, 2008 - 7:25 pm 11. Bill N:To expand on RAK’s statement, please let it be known that uranium-235 (the end product of uranium enrichment) is NOT needed for nuclear power. It IS needed for a bomb. Iran’s bosom buddies, the Russians have reactors that run on un-enriched uranium, just as it comes from the ground. So do the Canadians. Certainly one or the other of those countries would be willing to sell Iran a natural uranium reactor for much less than Ahmadthejihad is spending on his enrichment facilities. Therefore the ONLY POSSIBLE purpose for Iran’s uranium enrichment is for a bomb. End of discussion.
Jun 23, 2008 - 8:25 pm 12. Ramp Rat:Dar Dr. Krby Luv: Say Doc, I think Dr. Zeuss as your department chair asked you to run out and get the drinks for the meeting, while you were out, civilization occurred. Sorry, though you got the memo!
Jun 23, 2008 - 10:45 pm 13. idlewordshipdotcom:A little saber rattling was to be expected from Israel. While some analysts play down Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric for the sole purpose of appeasing domestic politics, the Israelis can’t stand by and risk him walking the walk after talking the talk.
Bobby
Jun 23, 2008 - 11:41 pm 14. Bogdan of Australia:http://www.idlewordship.com
The notion that Iranian regime is developing the nuclear industry for the purpose of generatin power is absolutely idiotic. Why would they spend gigiantic sums of money on the source of energy that, in their case, would be many times more expensive than that based on oil and at the same time neglect to build even a single rafinery? And why would they be willing to sacrifice the intellectual potential of their scientific minds for such a waste? The lack of Iranian regime’s interest in building rafinery to make itself independent from the supplies from abroad is the best proof that the Mullahs have much greater plans on their minds. It is clear that the NUKE will allow them to extend the influence over the entire ME in political, military and economic sense.
Jun 24, 2008 - 3:32 am 15. Andrew:cubanbob, Iran never called for Israel to be wiped off the map, he called for Zionism to be erased from the pages of history, 2 completely different things.
What you are quoting has to be the most used mis-quote by Western media and shows how so many people are blinded to the bullshit there own goverments make up.
Jun 24, 2008 - 9:19 am 16. Almost Ali:All very reasonable, even quasi rational… outside Tehran.
But inside Tehran such western silliness sweetens the tea and bolsters the regime.
Now even the Farsi translators are wondering if PJM is actually translating for the NYT.
That is, fiddling while Rome burns.
Jun 24, 2008 - 1:15 pm 17. Roy M:Andrew. That is the weirdest thing I have heard for quite some time. If the Western media misquote had missed out a “not” you might have had a point.
Jun 24, 2008 - 1:35 pm 18. seeker:This is the kind of discussion when President Bush considered waging war against Iraq.
Later, when push comes to shove, everybody blames him.
Israel should learn the lesson how America maltreated their own President.
Jun 24, 2008 - 7:51 pm 19. John Samford:Never fear. When the MadDog Mullahs build their bombs, they won’t use them on Israel, they will use them on the USA.
Jun 24, 2008 - 9:35 pm 20. Dave:They won’t use them on Mussel Shoals, Alabama but New York or D.C.
Personally I can think of no faster way to cure 90% of America’s problems then nuking New York and D.C.
Please Brer Mullah, don’t throw me in that briar patch!
IF Israel chooses to act.
The Potential Targets would probably be:
Radar Sites, Command and Control Centers,
Nuclear Sites.
IF Iran decides to retaliate, we can expect
Hezbollah to move into Israel from Lebanon.
Iran may try to shut the Straits of Hormuz.
They may even try to attack with conventional aircraft and Long Range Rockets.
Closing the Straits will not last long.
Jun 24, 2008 - 9:36 pm 21. tim stevens:The US will then get Involved.
Hard to tell where it goes from there.
Israel should wait until Obama become prez. Thus, while the messiah is talking to our enemies (without preconditions of course), the Israelis could be bombing ‘em back to the stone age.
Because Obama leads from his feminine rather than masculine side, he’ll inflict nothing beyond a verbal reprimand (ie time out for you!) or maybe at worst a lawsuit.
Jun 26, 2008 - 10:02 pm 22. abu al-fin:The middle east is a primitive tribal area, second only to sub-saharan Africa in hopelessness, poverty, and despair. Oil has given Arabs and Iranians a temporary “flash in the pan” sort of wealth–and they have squandered it in militarism and terror.
History will forget that Iran and the Arab world ever existed.
Jun 27, 2008 - 5:42 am 23. STARSCREAM"08":HAVE PEOPLE FORGOTTEN HISTORY? WE OWE IRAN A PAYBACK FOR THE 1979-80 HOSTAGE CRISES! NOT TO MENTION ALL THE CRAP WE TOLERATED DURING THE 1980′S….NOT TO MENTION , IF IRAN GOES NUCLEAR, SO WILL SAUDI ARABIA, AND SEEING THE FACT THAT 15 OF THE 19 HIJACKERS CAME FROM SAUDI ARABIA, THAT IS AN OPTION WE CANNOT ALLOW,SO IF BUSH WONT DO IT , LET ISREAL.,ANYWAY THE MORE CHAOS WE CAN GIVE ARABS , THE MORE THEY,LL FIGHT AMONST THEMSELFS , BUSH IS FROM A GENERATION OF AMERICANS WHICH REFUSES TO FORGIVE IRAN FOR THE 79-80 TEHRAN ORDEAL , I AM FROM A GENERATION OF AMERICANS THAT REFUSES TO FORGIVE SAUDI ARABIA FOR 9-11-01 …A QUOTE FROM STARSCREAM…..”VICTORY COMES FROM THE ASHES OF ONES ENEMIES”…SO IRAN AND SAUDI ARABIA ,…..”PATHETIC FOOLS THERES NO ESCAPE”!!!!!!
Nov 11, 2008 - 12:43 am