Disarming North Korea: Once-in-a-Generation Opportunity
The United States may finally be able to prevail over the Kimist regime.
According to the State Department, North Korea has once again resumed the disablement of its reactor in Yongbyon, but from all accounts it has not agreed to inspections of its other facilities. Moreover, Pyongyang does not appear willing to discuss the transferring of its nuclear weapon technology to Syria and other nations. Few analysts believe the North Koreans will permit verification of their disarmament promises. Once again, Kim Jong Il’s despicable regime has gotten the better of Washington.
Everybody complains about North Korea, but nobody knows what to do about it. Take the Bush administration, for instance. During the last eight years, the situation in Korea has gone from bad to worse. Today, the president is obviously incapable of forcing Kim to reverse course and disarm.
Why has Dubya failed? Everyone says the North is intractable. Pyongyang appears that way, but the United States is the most powerful nation in history, and North Korea is one of the weakest. Accordingly, President Bush deserves at least a portion of the blame for the lack of success this decade.
Since 2003, American policy has been based on the assumption that China would persuade its only formal military ally to disarm. True, Beijing has promoted dialogue during this critical period, but it has not been willing to broker an enduring solution. The fundamental problem with America’s policy is that it has been attempting to accomplish two goals at the same time: while trying to disarm the North Koreans, President Bush is also seeking to engage the Chinese. Of these two objectives, the second is evidently considered the more important.
Washington correctly saw that China was in the midst of a fundamental shift in its foreign policy, both shedding its self-image as an outsider and ending its traditional role as an adversary of the existing global order. Yet American diplomats ignored the fact that such transformations take decades and progress only after internal perceptions have shifted over time. Today, China is just not quite ready to act like a responsible great power.
And there was another factor that permitted the Chinese to continue to support their communist cousins in North Korea. Beijing could stand behind Pyongyang because Tokyo and the so-called “progressive” governments in Seoul — first under Kim Dae Jung and then Roh Moo-hyun — were doing the same. In short, the Japanese and South Koreans were giving the Chinese cover to do what they wanted to. In short, Washington was being frustrated by its two principal allies in the region.
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Gordon G. Chang is the author of Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes On the World and The Coming Collapse of China.
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9 Comments
1. David Thomson:Gordon Chang’s article is meaningless unless John McCain wins the presidency. Is it even being written with a straight face? A Barack Obama administration will simply surrender to our enemies. After all, the North Korean totalitarian dictatorship is allegedly a victim of our racist and oppressive policies. Moreover, it is humorous to read that “the Chinese economy showing the first signs of steep recession.” What the heck is going to happen in the United States? Obama will do enormous damage to our own economy.
Oct 28, 2008 - 9:26 am 2. roadkill:This entire article is a meangingless drivel.
It’s about a year too late.
A year ago, it could have worked, probably at the risk of causing a global meltdown and economic recession here in the US if the Chinese decided to call the US bluff. More likely, the Chinese would have backed down from the abyss and did what it was told.
Today?! The global economic trouble means the US neither has the will nor the believable bluff to foist on the Chinese its demands. If the US did what Chang says it should, China would most definitely dare us to do the worst. And if we did, we would become the global pariah for turning a global recession into a global Depression, and possibly see a new economic bloc emerge, a bloc based on excluding the US and minimizing its mischief-making potential.
Oct 28, 2008 - 9:57 am 3. Ken Hahn:You are right, China is the key. And China respects only strength. The next President should call in the Chinese Ambassador and tell him that North Korea is China’s problem. And that if China is unwilling to solve the problem that the US will have no choice but to restore balance to East Asia by offering nuclear technology to South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. The Chinese would find a solution.
Oct 28, 2008 - 10:47 am 4. Dennis Gouldy:The only way Washington will ever positively influence the DPRK is when that horrid place experiences total collapse. They will always get the better of Washington until the State Department realizes that the “most powerful nation in history” can do nothing to influence a regime that is willing to starve its citizens and tolerate all other manor of deprivation in order to maintain power. Direct military confrontation is out of the question unless we are willing to risk the near total destruction of South Korea and war with China. And the carrot and stick diplomacy characteristic of the last eight years results only in the loss of the carrot. Kim Jong Il is an expert at showing compliance with Western demands while he pushes his real agenda underground.
And, realistically, why should we expect China to intervene with the North on our behalf when it is in their interest to maintain the status quo? The DPRK is a reliable ally and neighbor which blunts America’s influence in Asia, which forces America to spend its money and manpower and which regularly frustrates and humiliates the “most powerful nation in history.” The recent Japanese and South Korean toughening stance toward the North is of little concern when it comes to China’s relations with America. North Korea is China’s well-placed pawn in Asian politics.
Perhaps China does need America more than America needs them but America seems to need them a lot. If America puts pressure on Beijing as you suggest we will essentially be pressuring them to expand American influence in Asia. Who know how they will react? They may react belligerently or they may even act like they want to help us. But in the end, they won’t do our bidding.
Until the inevitable collapse of the People’s Paradise our only option that has a chance of success is containment.
Oct 28, 2008 - 11:21 am 5. thegr8_1:How will obama juggle all these foreign issues plus our economy is in the toilet?North Korea has threatened to turn South Korea into debris. Talk similar to Iran about Israel? If McCain wins he can focus on foreign issues, Palin on energy and I hope he makes Mitt Romney Treasury Secretary, he makes Paulson look like a fifth grader.
Oct 28, 2008 - 1:35 pm 6. Cletus:David Thomson is a wise, wise man. Of course he forgot to mention that Barack Obama punched Jesus in the weiner. But rest assured, he did.
Oct 28, 2008 - 2:23 pm 7. g miller:We pressure China too much, they stop buying USA bonds. Interest rate syrockets. USA goes bankrupt. Game over. It’s about money and power, stupid.
Oct 28, 2008 - 10:28 pm 8. ajacksonian:Since China seems more than happy to have another nuclear power on its border, perhaps it is time to expand the nuclear neighborhood for Nations the US needs to rely on. Just let China know through back channels that it will soon have a much larger, happier neighborhood of industrial nations that can churn out nuclear devices at a pretty good rate… or they can ‘take care of’ the country they SAVED in the 1950’s from destruction.
‘You broke it, you pay for it.’
That goes for China, too. They wanted the place intatact, now they can pay… or maybe just use some of their pressure on fuel and food on NoKo and finally get it to understand that it is wholly dependent upon China’s good will.
Yes, a nuclear neighborhood of accountable nations looks real nice. China has no problems when that neighborhood expands to an unaccountable nation, so they should have zero qualms now… right?
Oct 29, 2008 - 5:06 am 9. Gordon G. Chang:g miller, China cannot stop buying Amnerican debt unless it decides to stop exporting to America. That is something the Chinese, with an export-led economy extraordinarily dependent on the United States, cannot do.
Why? Last year all but US$5.9 billion of China’s overall trade surplus of US$262.2 billion related to sales to the United States.
By the way, the Chinese do us no favors by lending us money so that we can go further into debt. It’s time we unwind this unsustainable relationship.
Oct 30, 2008 - 2:57 pm