Do the Netroots Get a Revote?
Obama faces the challenge of acknowledging progress in Iraq without alienating the left-wing base that nominated him.
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This was followed by a speech in which he doubled down on his assertion that Iraq was a mere “distraction” in the war on terror, a position that would calm his base which always asserted Iraq was a foolish lark by George W. Bush. That Iraq has now become a battleground, and a successful one at that, against al-Qaeda need not concern Obama, who must be wary of rattling his supporters with too much new information. Then, of course, he had to “purge” his own website, inserting just the type of wiggle-room language which would have brought howls of protest during the primary.
All the hemming and hawing should not be surprising. On one hand, Obama needs desperately to shift his Iraq policy so as not to appear entirely oblivious about the dramatic political and military advances that have occurred — which are now recognized by a variety of mainstream media sources and independent experts. However, he has spent his entire presidential campaign up to this point playing to the netroot gallery and promising to end the war no matter what.
And staunch opponents of the war on the Left have good reason to be upset if Obama throws his position under the proverbial bus. In January 2007 he introduced legislation to cut off funding for troops immediately, not just follow a phased draw-down, and for over a year his website has declared (and still says) without qualification: “Obama will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq. He will remove one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months.”
Obama again and again, long after the surge was bearing fruit, repeated his refrain that the war must end. Under questioning in a debate in April he reiterated that although he would listen to the commanders he was going to be giving out new orders: get out of Iraq. In his last interview with Tim Russert in May there was this exchange:
MR. RUSSERT: The U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, said that a quick withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq could result in genocide. Would you factor that in? And if that began to emerge as an issue, would you stop the withdrawal?
SEN. OBAMA: Tim, I would — of course I would factor in the possibilities of genocide, and I factored it in when I said that I would begin a phased withdrawal. What we’ve talked about is a very deliberate and, and prudent approach to the withdrawal, one to two brigades per month. At that pace it would take about 16 months. Assuming that George Bush is not going to lower troop levels before the next president takes office, we’re talking about potentially two years away. At that point we will have been in Iraq seven years. If we cannot get the Iraqis to stand up in seven years, we’re not going to get them to stand up in 14 or 28 or 56 years. [emphasis added]
Moreover, the role of Iraq in the outcome of the Democratic primary cannot be overestimated. For months and months he beat Hillary Clinton over the head with her original vote in favor of the war, declaring only he had superior judgment and only he could effectively contrast the position of the Republican candidate. Despite Bill Clinton’s effort to label Obama’s Iraq storyline of superior opposition to the war a “fairytale,” Obama effectively captured the anti-war vote. At every turn Obama assured voters he was the one candidate to get out of Iraq. And when his advisor Samantha Power hinted otherwise, she was summarily dumped.
So if Obama now shifts ground, recognizes the surge has been working (during the very time period he was exhorting the netroot troops), and pledges to now really listen to the commanders on the ground and adopt the McCain formula — stay as long as possible to transition to effective Iraqi political and military control — the netroots would have reason to scream foul. After all, the premise all along of the anti-war cause which he championed has been that we have no dog in the Iraqi fight and the war is already lost (or will be again as soon as we leave).
But if Obama is now poised to get on board the McCain surge express, what was his entire campaign really all about? Was he just playing with the anti-war base’s emotions, realizing that after the nomination he could realign himself with reality and abandon the anti-war base which gave him the nomination?
This is why, of course, Obama’s move to embrace the surge is so half-hearted and inarticulate. For a fellow who is so adept with words he certainly is having a hard time making himself understood. But that fuzziness is certainly intentional. If he comes right out and says that the war is not lost and he is committed to a successful outcome, the netroot base could well conclude that they have been had. And they would be right.
Jennifer Rubin is PJM's Washington, DC, editor. She also blogs at Commentary’s Contentions.
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20 Comments
1. huxley:Hands down, Obama is the most Orwellian presidential candidate we have ever had.
Jul 18, 2008 - 1:13 am 2. SAF:Obama is brilliant. First he figured out how to win the dem nomination by running to the left, now he will run to the center to win the presidency. He has lots of latitude to do this as the left has no place where to go except him.
When elected he will govern left.
Very smart guy.
Jul 18, 2008 - 4:00 am 3. Lisa:I begin to believe that Obama’s only firm opinion is that he is the greatest man in history.
Jul 18, 2008 - 6:54 am 4. David:I voted for Senator Obama in the primaries. I now have a serious case of buyers remorse. Inspirational speaker with no substance, I wish I had looked into him more instead of being swept up in emotion. How I now long for Hillary and Bill.
I guess I will go third party this election ala Nader, Voting republican is out of the question.
Jul 18, 2008 - 7:13 am 5. J.J. Sefton:SAF: They could go for the ultimate bipartisan ticket - KUCINICH-PAUL ‘08!!!
Oh, the humanity……
Jul 18, 2008 - 7:14 am 6. Mike:It really suggests how dense the netroots must be. No POTUS, Obama included, would accept the possibility of being remembered as the nation’s leader who literally snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, which is what could happen if a withdrawal from Iraq is done too hastily. But Obama is extremely lucky as well, for if elected by the time he assumes office President Bush will have already done much to secure the country, withdraw troops and, as an added bonus, begun increasing troop level in Afghanistan. Building on such success Obama, and the Democrats, can take credit for events and outcomes they did nothing to achieve, indeed did everything to thwart. Now that really does deserve a cheer of “Yes We Can.”
Jul 18, 2008 - 7:25 am 7. Tony:If the netroots swallowed all the rubbish Flipper threw their way before the primaries then they aren’t going to bail on him now no matter what twists and turns his “hope and change” BS takes.
They ARE that stupid and he knows it. Now he just has to fool a chunk of folks in the centre and the election is won.
Jul 18, 2008 - 8:09 am 8. GM Roper:“Pay no attention to that messiah behind the green curtain… I SAID PAY NO ATTEN…”
Jul 18, 2008 - 8:45 am 9. Sheila:“I guess I will go third party this election ala Nader, Voting republican is out of the question.”
And David, what is that going to achieve? Your “remorse” is disingenuous.
Jul 18, 2008 - 8:48 am 10. Dan,Riverside,CA:When we were young we worked on our own cars-(yeah,muscle cars-big V-8’s,multiple carbs etc.)real screamers.We spent most of our effort and money on the components that mattered,the engine and drive train.The more ‘elite’ guys
Jul 18, 2008 - 8:50 am 11. schnargley:(who had less real skill and more of Daddy’s money)went in for more paint and chrome than performance.We used to say “yeah,well,if it don’t go-chrome it!”.Obama reminds me of cheap chrome.
When will you guys ever get it? It does not important whether Obama supposedly refines and adjusts his position to the center. He cannot, in effect move to the center. He is the center. He is the culmination of thousands of years of human history, the finality of all human wisdom, the answer to our deepest fears and most unspoken hopes.
Jul 18, 2008 - 9:05 am 12. Mary in LA:[David] “I guess I will go third party this election ala Nader, Voting republican is out of the question.”
Are you sure you won’t consider voting for John McCain? He may wear an R, but he’s actually the best Democrat out there.
(yes, I’m gonna vote for him…)
Jul 18, 2008 - 10:13 am 13. Dane:“Are you sure you won’t consider voting for John McCain? He may wear an R, but he’s actually the best Democrat out there.”
Yeah, I was gonna say - have you actually looked at McCain’s voting record on anything other than foreign policy? It’s certainly not the Republican party line - in some areas, he’s to the left of the more centrist Democrats in Congress.
Jul 18, 2008 - 10:29 am 14. craig:This is an impossible situation. Yes Obama pandered to the netroots about the main issue which was losing the war, and yes we came within six months of a downward spiral to defeat so Obama thought it would be a safe bet.
The reality is I think the netroots have to come to terms with reality not Obama. Obama is a politician and a smart guy without strong principals. He will do whatever it takes to win the war now because it looks good for him if he is allowed to do so.
I think the netroots knows inside that no matter what Obama says he will let them down. They might as well accept the buyers remorse and let him flip already. If they don’t they may lose him the election.
Anyway I think this group of people and that includes moveon.org needs a little bit of a reality check. Yes Bush screwed up. Yes McCain, Hillary, and most dems and republicans thought the war was the right thing to do based on very faulty intelligence and the belligerance of the Bush admin.
But your anger doesn’t help us now. These groups cannot look like they want us to lose in Iraq because that can be portrayed by many as almost treachorous. Also it is meaningless since whomever is president will work this out with the Iraqi government.
Let Obama do what he has to do. We live in a tough world. Sometimes you have to bite the bullet. If Iraq is a success with democrat help they will be rewarded even if it is late in the game.
Jul 18, 2008 - 10:36 am 15. mouse:schnargley, you get it! Speaking of Obama:
“He is the center. He is the culmination of thousands of years of human history, the finality of all human wisdom, the answer to our deepest fears and most unspoken hopes.”
I understand this well, it describes me perfectly… or at least up until I was eight years old when Billy Johnson punched me out on the playground because he didn’t agree with me. Obama’s problem is that he never met Billy Johnson, only white people so pleased to know a pleasant black guy with a grin.
I know very well that there are a lot of Billy Johnsons out there, I hope there are enough. It’s too late to help Obama, but it might save the republic.
Jul 18, 2008 - 10:54 am 16. Dave II:I get the feeling here, many think that since Obama flipped (on many issues, not just Iraq) and since the netroots will go with him anyway (many as above though are having “buyers remorse”) then the vast center will just fall in line with him because he NOW says what THEY want to hear…
I don’t believe the independent/center is as gullible as the netroots were or are for Obama! One reason they ARE the center is they don’t swallow the line of EITHER party and have a healthy skepticism about a candidate until he shows them his TRUE COLORS. Obama’s true colors are coming through as the fraud and political hack he is, with no core principles and glib tongue that belies a complete lack of judgement and character.
As the saying goes: You can fool some of the people some of the time (as he did to win the primary) but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.
And he won’t come November.
Jul 18, 2008 - 10:59 am 17. Troy:They should, and they should vote for….?
Jul 18, 2008 - 11:03 am 18. patty b:what i dont like about this empty headed moron is not policy really BUT HIS ARROGNANCE AND THE HANG DOG DEPRESSED LOOK ON HIS HATEFUL WIFE I PRAY TO GOD HE DOES NOT WIN I WOULD LOVE TO SEE THOSE IN THE MEDIA IF HE DOSENT.
Jul 18, 2008 - 11:57 am 19. susie:Obama is running for President of the World. He has been invited to debate / town hall meeting with McCain at Ft. Bragg. He declined (schedule conflicts) even when they agreed to change the date to meet his schedule. He wants to be Commander in Chief but can’t speak to the troops and their families. He rather “kiss-up” to the European’s and give campaign speeches in France and Germany.
He is an “ombanation”.
Jul 18, 2008 - 1:53 pm 20. fred:I am not as optimistic about the “Center” in the country. I call it the Middle Muddle, because these are people who cannot at least pick a side in a war, political or military. They cannot identify their fundamental, uncompromising principles, and then stand on them. I was a lifelong Democrat until 2003, and much of the early part of that time was spent on the Far Left. Once I had exhausted my search for an epistemologically, theologically, and scientifically sound “third way” Marxism, I gave up the project and moved on away from the Left. Now, I’m slightly Right-of-Center. Not always happy with the Republican Party, but there is enough in that party for me to agree with some basic principles: limited government and strong national defense. And I agree with capitalism, with some minor tweaking thrown in. It works. If you think it doesn’t, then talk with people from Eastern Europe. They’ll let you in on a secret that Obonga and the Netroots haven’t figured out yet: socialism is a failure and has failed everywhere it’s been tried in history.
Jul 19, 2008 - 7:25 pm