‘Drill Here, Drill Now’ Helped End Russia-Georgia War
Too bad McCain isn't making this connection and using it to hammer Obama.
On October 8 Russian forces made a final withdrawal from their former vassal state of Georgia. This little-noticed compliance with demands made by U.S. and European diplomats put an end to a drama that had stunned the world and threatened to upset the coronation of His Divine Majesty Barack Hussein Obama by spotlighting the Chosen One’s complete lack of foreign policy capabilities. The August invasion caught everyone by surprise, coming as it did during the Summer Olympics — prompting Mr. Obama, in a foreshadowing of future diplomatic toughness, to complain, “This action is wholly inconsistent with the Olympic ideal” — and sparking fears of a new cold war with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. There was a mad scramble to turn the page as the Obama campaign, along with a friendly news media, sought desperately to return the discussion to economic issues. And so it has.
But this whole affair was largely over economic issues, and its rather ignominious end has been brought about because of pressure imposed unintentionally in America. John McCain has failed to grasp the significance of what happened here, something that he could put to great advantage if he would aggressively make the connection.
In short, “drill here, drill now” has made the invasion too expensive for Russia to be bothered with.
Before the Democratic Party piggy banks of Fannie and Freddie collapsed — something that any acute observer understood was coming and which Senator McCain took efforts to prevent — the principal topic of discussion around kitchen tables across the Fruited Plain was the price of gas. Americans were furious about $4 a gallon gasoline and Newt Gingrich developed the “drill here, drill now” campaign to kick the Democrats in the family jewels. Environmentalists and other opponents of the internal combustion engine held the Democratic Party in a stranglehold and they dared not endorse any new drilling or exploration. Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid feared the loss of state power that more drilling implied. Obama was reduced to his 10-year plan, saying we have to kick our “addiction to oil” and promising pain to act as a spur to this lofty goal. The House Republicans performed their political theater and this issue was turning McCain’s way. President Bush did his part and Congress was forced to cave on domestic drilling.
Now, Obama claims we won’t see any oil for at least a decade — of course, we won’t see any alternatives for a decade with his plan — but that is immaterial; the threat of future competition by the U.S. forced oil producers to drop their prices. Coupled with a strengthening of the U.S. dollar, oil hit a low under $70 a barrel after having peaked in July over $140.
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Timothy Birdnow is a writer and real estate man in St. Louis. He blogs at www.timothybirdnow.com.
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29 Comments
1. Myno:While I would love to have discovered serious content in Mr. Birdnow’s article, sadly it is riddled with faulty premises. The global reduction in oil prices was due to the Fanny/Freddy Debacle, not to “the threat of future competition by the U.S.” spurred by Newt’s “drill here, drill now” campaign. High fuel prices and its ripple effects in the economy may have nudged the tipping point for the foreclosure crisis, but even if we encouraged near-shore drilling where the oil is most plentiful and can come most quickly to market, I do not believe that it would be a major near-term determinant in the global price of fuel. It is much more straightforward to argue that high fuel prices caused a reduction of demand (exacerbated by the crisis) which caused prices to fall… in (a horribly tampered mixed-economy version of) the typical negative feedback loop freshman calculus homework problem. Next, I must say it is naive to posit that the Kremlin is unstable unless oil prices remain high. Putin likely has a lock on power, and will blithely dial his actions up and down in accord with cash reserves and international political opportunities. He might have to wait longer, move more slowly, if oil prices are lower than his desires, but I gauge it highly doubtful that he will fall from power anytime soon, no matter the price of oil. Yes, he might have been after Georgian resources, and he certainly already uses the EU’s dependence on Russian oil and gas to his advantage, but he can afford to wait for other opportunities. Besides, his war in Georgia hardly cost him a thing, in ruples. It is the modernization of the Russian military that is his real cost center, not whether they conduct training exercises inside an ex-satellite’s disputed national boundaries. There is much to revile about an Obama Presidency, and every reason to fight that possibility before the election seals the nation’s fate. Unfortunately, this article didn’t help much.
Oct 24, 2008 - 4:04 am 2. ‘Drill Here, Drill Now’ Helped End Russia-Georgia War | PoliticsMuch.com:[...] orginally posted at PajamasMedia.com. We claim no responsibility for this content. Please click on the link above to read and comment on [...]
Oct 24, 2008 - 4:19 am 3. Jarhead:I thought McCain’s best point in the last debate was when he pointed out Obama’s misleading word-smithing. “We’ll look at offshore drilling.”
We’ll be looking at offshore drilling alright – at a Chinses platform in Cuban waters slant drilling out American oil.
Oct 24, 2008 - 4:39 am 4. sunshine2:Drill here drill now.
Oct 24, 2008 - 4:39 am 5. Sandra M:In the last 24 months, an independent oil company purchased a lease, drilled a well and started delivering 2,000 barrels per day in a new discovery off Alaska.
With red tape it took too long. Add red tape to a Major oil company it could have been 42 months.
The Russian stock market crashed. It fell by 60% and trading was halted many times. Most of their stock value was energy. After the invasion of Georgia the Russians lost 600 billion dollars value. What an indirect cost of their wartime. I can give a long list of oil related problems in Russia and they do not line up Russia doing well. Drill Baby drill hurt russia by hundreds of billions. Yes the Russian stability is dangerously connected to oil prices and currency from their primary export.
I agree that McCain is foolish to have let the “Drill Here, Drill Now” mantra lapse.
The Democrats, flush with victory in the election (Oh! I forgot. We haven’t voted yet) have already made it know that there is no drilling in our future.
Also, Governor Bigfoot who jets from LA to Sacramento daily and has the nerve to preach conservation to the rest of us has gone to DC hat in hand, begging for a handout. Were it not for his domineering Democrat mate, he might still be a Republican with 2 great options other than a handout.
1) allow drilling offshore wherever there is NOT a beautiful beach that has a .00005% of being blighted by oil. If California slackers knew that Alaskans get royalties from the oil companies in the amount of $1,200 a year, they might lead the fight to DRILL HERE, DRILL NOW.
2) California’s largest crop is not taxed. Decriminalize marijuana which is to the young and not so young as scotch was to their dads, and the state treasury will be awash in money.
Oct 24, 2008 - 4:44 am 6. Timothy Birdnow » Russia, Oil and John McCain:[...] This is my first at PJ`s, a tie in between Russia, the current economic crisis, and John McCain`s political fortunes. It can be viewed here. [...]
Oct 24, 2008 - 6:11 am 7. tom:today’s oil price is driven by speculators and some over supply (china held high reserves for the Olympics)
We still have over 30% of the production in the Gulf Of Mexico down after hurricanes Gustaf and Ike. Prices are going up post election.
When prices are high, oil shale looks good. Much of this has been overdone if prices stay low. THe dollar is so devalued that the relative oil price is not reflective
China and India will not slow down their trend for a car based economy. Many Americans still have to make their long commute each day
our best hope is opening ANWR and a strong push to build nuclear at an accelerated rate
Oct 24, 2008 - 7:53 am 8. Matt:Sounds like oil is a big problem. Maybe we should end the oil regime altogether, seeing as this industry has so many governments crafting policy for it? As far as foreign policy goes, the Republicans have failed in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, failed in nuclear proliferation in North Korea, and Iran, took one on the nose in Georgia, the list goes on – name one foreign policy success the Republicans can claim? Furthermore, Teddy Roosevelt, a Republican GOD from New York, was a conservationist and ended industrial trusts, namely the Standard Oil Trust. I suppose if he were around today you’d call him a elitist socialist?
Oct 24, 2008 - 8:21 am 9. kabud:where is this DRILLING?
i don’t see any
it is a fair tale : there is going to be no drilling because their is not enough oil in th USA
drilling is a lie
Oct 24, 2008 - 8:50 am 10. mnotaro:Yeah, I wish McCain would have brought up this topic as well…I think he could win a debate question about oil and drilling with Obama for sure…but McCain isn’t as proactive as I wish he was sometimes. I feel like Obama wants it more…For a lot of Republicans I have spoken to, McCain is the lesser of two evils. Most Republican friends I have just don’t want to vote for Obama and see his illuminati politicians in DC. We aren’t voting for McCain. We are voting against Obama and voting independent is a wasted vote I think.
Oct 24, 2008 - 9:56 am 11. The morning blog headlines « Scatterin’ O’ the Thoughts:[...] Wait a minute! One more! Did you hear that a conservative demand for domestic energy stopped a war?… [...]
Oct 24, 2008 - 11:07 am 12. Guy who works in Energy Sector:For anyone to think that the American threat to boost oil production domestically caused the Oil prices to drop is an idiot. For the pittance of oil that we could get out of the reserves, we would not be able to move the market whatsoever. The real reason oil prices fell is that demand has been destroyed with the high oil prices. When US started to consume less oil, followed by the credit meltdown, followed by the realization that global growth is slowing and India and China won’t be buying up all the barrels of oil, regardless of cost to keep their booming economies going, then the oil prices cratered and flushed all the speculators out of the market. Drill, baby, drill is cr@p.
Oct 24, 2008 - 11:17 am 13. L'nae:the us is in the top 5 of oil producers in the world. even with independence of foreign oil, the us would still be effected by market changes. oil drilled from anywhere can go to almost any market which means that any distruption in the production (ie a bombing on a russian pipeline – sends oil to eruope) would raise the us price because europe would have to look elsewhere. drill here drill now had little/no effect on the world price.
Oct 24, 2008 - 11:54 am 14. Fred:McCain is somehow held hostage to the carbon cap and trade nonsense. For both candidates, energy policy is still primarily driven by environmental policy, itself hostage to a highly questionable scientific hypothesis. Stunning is my adjective to describe the fact that so many people are unable to, for ideological reasons, correctly process the meaning that the climate stopped warming in 1998 and has been slowly reversing since.
It’s as if there are people behind the candidates who are calling the shots on energy policy. They’ve decided that we are going to have a long period of economic stagnation in order to comply with a crypto-Kyoto protocols regime.
It can’t be the energy companies calling the shots on this one, because they clearly would like to explore and drill. That’s their business, and they can do it more efficiently and safely now than they could thirty years ago.
Oct 24, 2008 - 12:03 pm 15. Justin O'Neill:@sunshine2:
I am with Myno on this one. Russia was producing 9.87 million barrels per day last
year so I don’t see how 2,000 barrels per day could effect them. I know you used that as just one example but all new production in the US added up is still minuscule compared to 9.87 million barrels per day.
http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/apdetailspage.php?id=a7ce725bab8e6f6fb812565154a3d5a10325746
Oct 24, 2008 - 12:17 pm 16. Matt:Fred, you are a sucker. The oil companies and industrialists have spent millions to convince you that there is no environmental impact to burning fossil fuels or consuming plastics. They don’t want people to demand environmental regulations, alternative energy or stop buying plastic crap made in China because it would be harder for these punks to make $$$$.
Oct 24, 2008 - 1:03 pm 17. Sadly, No!:“Drill here, drill now” made my teeth whiter!
“Drill here, drill now” is your new best friend!
“Drill here, drill now” wants to make you a ham sandwich and give you a backrub!
Why isn’t McCain using this?! Oh – it’s all so confusing!
Oct 24, 2008 - 2:19 pm 18. Marc Malone:Drill here, drill now has failed as an issue because the price of oil has come back down. Americans are children.
This is now our opportunity to develop our own capacity while we can afford it, when oil and gas isn’t sucking ALL the money out. But people are too worried about an overdue stock market correction. Stupid.
Oct 24, 2008 - 4:26 pm 19. martina:McCain makes Bush look like a genius. Come to think of it Bush would of easily beat Obama in the debates.
Oct 24, 2008 - 5:27 pm 20. thegr8_1:Drill here Drill now will only apply at the dentist’s office if BO wins.
Oct 24, 2008 - 6:42 pm 21. first history:. . . prompting Mr. Obama, in a foreshadowing of future diplomatic toughness, to complain, “This action is wholly inconsistent with the Olympic ideal” . . . .
Must have missed that robust response by the current Administration–we do have one, right? I guess I forgot the sight of the Marines fighting for democracy in Tiblisi. Or were they sent to Atlanta?
The author is right the invasion was in part to intimidate Europe by threatening one of the few non-trans Russian pipelines. But Russia being intimidated by “Drill here, drill now!”? What a joke, as much as energy “independence.” The US comsumes 25 percent of the world’s supply but has only 4-5 percent of reserves. Square that circle.
Oct 24, 2008 - 9:41 pm 22. Mary Grabar:I hope McCain’s advisors read these pages.
Oct 25, 2008 - 4:12 am 23. Stewed Hamm:@ first history: The US consumes only 25% of the world’s energy supply, yet produces 1/3 of the world’s total GDP. Squared.
Also, the “reserves” figure changes depending on current oil prices and technologies, because it’s a measure of reserves that are economically feasible to recover at a given point in time. With the recent price drop, that 4-5% figure is now inaccurate.
More to the point of the article, “Drill Here, Drill Now” did have an effect on domestic gas prices. When President Bush rescinded the Executive Order banning offshore drilling, prices dropped around 7 to 10 cents per gallon. That’s it. The massive drop in prices we’ve seen in the last month is more due to the credit meltdown, and the relative strengthening of the dollar due to worse conditions in Europe.
Oct 25, 2008 - 8:27 am 24. Robert Friedrich:Drilling for oil is the only energy independence this country can have, and yes, there is oil.
As long as we are dependant on foreign oil, we will fight wars for it. We will be in Iraq for the duration – until we don’t need a stable middle-east. Once we are energy independent we won’t have to care when they act on their seemingly endless desire to kill each other. We also won’t have to tip-toe around the world when they want to kill us.
My number one issue in this election is drilling for oil. But the Democrats idea to make us energy independent is to destroy our economy with redistribution of the wealth. You don’t need gas when you don’t have a job to drive to…
Vote republican and drive an SUV! DRILL HERE AND DRILL NOW!
Oct 25, 2008 - 2:25 pm 25. Marc Malone:Mary Grabar – SOMEONE reads these pages. I now have three phrases/arguments I profferred now being used by the pundits. My latest was the phrase tangential relationships in reference to McCain’s “questionable associations”. Dr. Lamont Hill just a few days later used the phrase while discoursing with O’Reilly on his show. Sadly, he used it in defense of Obama…. :’( Me and my big mouth!
The upside is that active blogging can have a trickle up effect.
Oct 26, 2008 - 2:01 am 26. tommy mack:Stewed Hamm thinks that the oil has magically gushed forth onto the world market and caused lower prices. Stick to blogging, not international commodity market analysis. Guess what? We haven’t touched our precious off-shore oil reserves, fouled our beaches, allowed big Oil to extract our public resource with minimal severance tax, AND YET, gas is now $2.05/gallon. Still awaiting that “clean coal technology” and nuclear (or nukuler a al “W” and McPalin) to be our immediate salvation just because they saw so. Yeah, and the budget can be balanced in 4 years. Let’s see Johnny McC pull a rabbit out of his bum first, then maybe I’ll invest in that strategy with my vote.
Oct 28, 2008 - 8:20 pm 27. Timothy Birdnow » Russia Squeezed by Georgia War, Falling Gas Prices, U.S. Economic Problems:Hmmmmm. Hope the Wall Street bailout wasn’t premature. Maybe a (regulated) free market could solve some problems. Maybe if Newt “Drill Here, Drill Now” Gingrich had worked on consensus to promote alternative fuels and energy independence, we wouldn’t be riding this roller coaster. Oh, I suppose I forgot who his major campaign contributors were during his rollicking speakership years and how he’s now got his megaphone and pom-poms out for Exxon, Halliburton, and the like. Oh, and Mavericks crash planes and get shot. Not something I want my leader doing anytime soon, metaphorically or otherwise.
[...] argued in Drill Here Drill Now Helped End the Russo-Georgian War, my piece at Pajama`s Media, that the slide in oil prices, started by the efforts of Republicans to [...]
Nov 30, 2008 - 4:00 pm 28. BuckRun Outdoors » Blog Archive » The New Cold War — and How America Can Win:[...] of the Medvedev/Putin oligarchs comes from their wealth, and that is their Achilles heel. As I pointed out here the drop in oil prices is seriously damaging to Russian adventurism. Couple that with the rapidly [...]
Jan 13, 2009 - 6:01 am 29. Anonymous:fuke russsia
Jun 14, 2009 - 12:21 pm