Drunkblogging West Virginia: Hillary’s Big Win
The long primary season has severely depleted his liquor cabinet, but Vodkapundit's Stephen Green had just enough left to fuel a zany analysis of Tuesday's big WV primary.
4:35 pm PDT
Here it is: Hillary’s big, big win. The Obama camp will point out that West Virginia doesn’t really matter, because he already has the nomination all but sewn up, that it’s just a “distraction” from bigger contests, and that WV is filled with crackers, anyway. Although the language they’ll use will be a bit more discreet.
The Clinton campaign will say West Virginia matters, precisely because it’s filled with white people just like all the other white people who won’t vote for Obama in the fall. And that’s pretty much exactly the language they’ll use.
Meanwhile, race continues to be the determining factor in the formerly colorblind Democratic party:
Racially motivated voting appeared to be running higher than usual: Two in 10 whites said the race of the candidate was a factor in their vote, second only to Mississippi. And only a third of those voters said they’d support Obama as the nominee against John McCain, fewer than in other primaries where the question has been asked.
It looks like the chickens of multiculturalism have come home to roost. Boston.com’s Foon Rhee notes the same problem and says:
Among those supporting Hillary Clinton, just 36 percent said they would vote for Barack Obama in November, while 35 percent would defect to Republican John McCain, according to the exit polls conducted for the TV networks and the Associated Press.
Among Obama voters, barely a majority, 51 percent, said they would vote for Clinton in November.
If this is the case, then the “unity ticket” some dream of simply can’t happen — mostly because Clinton has dragged this thing on for so long, while playing the race card at every (equal) opportunity.
And in any case, why would Obama want Clinton as his vice president? I’m sure she’d do well in the debates, but almost nobody votes for vice president. Besides, would you want Hil and Bill scheming just down the street from you in the Old Executive Office Building? The dream ticket becomes the nightmare scenario.
Would Clinton even want the Veep spot? Playing third fiddle to President Obama and Second Gentleman Bill Clinton? She’d be better off spending the next four years in the Senate, getting back on Ted Kennedy’s good side. She could start by bringing him a scotch.
And if that fails, I could use a fresh martini, Senator.
12:02 pm PDT
Let the whining commence:
Terry McAuliffe, campaign chairman for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), said Tuesday that the former first lady is hamstrung by a biased media.
“Clearly it has been a biased media, no question about it,” McAuliffe said on Fox News. When asked how much of the mainstream media is “in the tank” for Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), who leads Clinton in the race for the Democratic nomination, McAuliffe estimated that about 90 percent of the media favor Obama.
“It is what it is. We’re not complaining,” he stated. “We have to deal with the hand we’re dealt with.”
Well, maybe now Camp Clinton knows what it’s like for Republicans in every election.
And this item should come as no surprise to habitual poll-watchers:
In the Democratic race, Obama has effectively ceded West Virginia. He told a crowd Monday in Charleston – in his only visit to the state – that he expected Clinton to draw “many more” votes than he would get. West Virginia is one of the poorest, oldest, most white-dominated states, mirroring the composition of counties in Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania that Clinton carried handily.
So what we’re looking for tonight isn’t who wins, but by how much. Can Clinton stay relevant with a giant win? Or will Democratic voters abandon her, telling her in effect, “drop out already and endorse Barack.” At least one poll makes that seem unlikely, with 64% of Democrats urging Clinton to stay in the race. As TalkLeft notes:
It turns out that the only people against a Unity Ticket are Ted Kennedy, Mark Cohen and Creative Class bloggers. Obama’s strong African American base want unity as do Clinton supporters. The divisive ones are people like Kennedy, Cohen and the Creative Class bloggers.
That kind of sentiment, if it holds, will make November even more difficult for McCain — no matter how ugly the Democratic primary has been, or gets.
08:56 am PDT
The last Democrat to win the White House without winning West Virginia was Woodrow Wilson back in 1916. The time before that, was James Buchanan in 1856, and back then we had just the One Big Virginia in the antebellum South. The last Democrat to win without Kentucky was John Kennedy in 1960. I don’t know JFK, and JFK was no friend of mine, but I’m pretty sure Barack Obama is no JFK.
This is the case Hillary Clinton needs to make — forcefully, indisputably — this week and next as Democratic voters in West Virginia and Kentucky make their presidential picks. She doesn’t have many more chances. Of course, if it turns out Obama really can’t win whites (like he did in Iowa but not since), it will be at least in part because the Clintons keep saying, “I’ve heard that Obama is black, you know.”
And according to some, that’s generating some racist attacks in the rainbow party. Check out this report from the Washington Post:
“The first person I encountered was like, ‘I’ll never vote for a black person,’ ” recalled Ross, who is white and just turned 20. “People just weren’t receptive.”
For all the hope and excitement Obama’s candidacy is generating, some of his field workers, phone-bank volunteers and campaign surrogates are encountering a raw racism and hostility that have gone largely unnoticed — and unreported — this election season. Doors have been slammed in their faces. They’ve been called racially derogatory names (including the white volunteers). And they’ve endured malicious rants and ugly stereotyping from people who can’t fathom that the senator from Illinois could become the first African American president.
The contrast between the large, adoring crowds Obama draws at public events and the gritty street-level work to win votes is stark. The candidate is largely insulated from the mean-spiritedness that some of his foot soldiers deal with away from the media spotlight.
Ignore, if you can, the loaded language of the story, tilting it nicely towards Obama. Also pay no attention to the fact that all reporter Kevin Merida has is a couple of anecdotes from a couple of Obama volunteers. And that even the Obama campaign calls such incidents “isolated.” Please forget that the one real attack on a campaign HQ in a small town had to do with “God and guns” and Rev. Wright, and not race. Or that Obama picked up two more superdelegates just this morning. Or that Obama is kicking Clinton’s butt from one end of the country to the other. OK, so that’s an awful lot to ignore and maybe there’s no real story here.
Next?
Sandy Grady writes for USA Today that West Virginia is an “epic” battle like we haven’t seen there since the Kennedy/Humphrey contest of 1960:
But if they stopped to look back at the Kennedy vs. Humphrey duel, both candidates could discover lessons about their roads ahead:
* Clinton might learn from Humphrey how to gracefully, quickly dismantle a losing campaign. And how deeply it hurts.
* Obama, haunted by race and resistance of white, low-income voters, might study how Kennedy overcame anti-Catholic bias.
We should also note that Joe Kennedy pretty much purchased West Virginia for his son in 1960, securing him the nomination. If (when) Hilary wins? No such luck. And maybe Clinton really has seen the dark at the end of the tunnel, as Charles Hurt argues in the New York Post:
“Thank you for caring so much about our country,” Clinton said in a video sent yesterday to supporters. “And now it’s on to West Virginia and Kentucky and Oregon, and we’ll stay in touch.”
Not mentioned in her apparent video swan song are the final three primaries, in Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota, to be held after next week – leading to speculation that she might pull the plug on her campaign after what are expected to be strong wins in West Virginia and Kentucky.
Before a losing battle of my own as a teen, my grandfather told me not to “go out in a blaze of s**t.” Maybe Clinton is taking similar advice: to go out in a blaze of glory, rather than as a loser. We’ll find out in just a few weeks.
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31 Comments
1. Sage:Obama has slipped through the cracks on this election cycle. The best Hillary can do is to appear electable all the way through the convention, then surreptitiously help Obama to lose in November.
She will have 4 years to get her ducks in a row and her bridges rebuilt for 2012. Obama as a loser will be out, and Mr. Ford from Tennesse–who predicted that Obama cannot win the US without winning Indiana–will readily step into competition for Obama’s vacant slot.
May 13, 2008 - 11:14 am 2. Vodkapundit » Primary Day Redux:[...] by Stephen Green on 13 May 2008 at 12:24 pm Yes, I’m liveblogging the West Virginia primary all day at Pajamas [...]
May 13, 2008 - 11:24 am 3. Josephine:Each one in his turn. 2008 and 2012 Obama – 2016 Hillary will be able to run and Obama will be the first to endorse her. She will be old but still younger than McCain.
May 13, 2008 - 12:16 pm 4. scothiker:I will even vote for her if she get out of the race now.
Can’t help but note the many media references to deep seated racial undertones expressed by white voters in WV. Gee, wonder why we never heard a peep about the vast majority of blacks in NC and other states that voted for Obama. Are we to believe it was because of phiosophical beliefs that he is of presidental timbre, or could it by chance be influenced by skin color? If we are going to cry foul with the race card in WV, let us also look at the other side of the coin.
May 13, 2008 - 12:45 pm 5. Sheri:Hiliary is competing against herself: LIKE A DOG CHASING ITS OWN TAIL!!!!!!
May 13, 2008 - 12:57 pm 6. CarmenCozy:Sage:
You Said:
“Obama has slipped through the cracks on this election cycle.”???
That is the dumbest thing I’ve heard in ages.
Obama has PROVEN himself, time and again, by temperament, to be a rare sort of a leader. (Forget Friggin Reverand Wright, and look at the cadidate, please.) Obama is someone who can rise over the din of this raucos primary to show he can 1) listen, 2) think, and 3) speak. If you think that is not much of a recommendation, ask yourselves: how does Bush fare in these categories?
“A Prayer for all the Racialists” Sygman Rhee
May 13, 2008 - 12:58 pm 7. Ed Wallis:The only problem with Hillary Rodham Clinton making the point with the Demcratic Party at the convention that she is the “more electable” of the two candidates (the other being Obama, for those otherwise “distracted”…), is that she is trying to use logic on Democrats.
Resistance…err, I mean LOGIC…is futile.
May 13, 2008 - 1:14 pm 8. Irish Gal:BO can listen all right, about himself, he can think all right, about himself and he can speak all right as long as he has a speech writer. Ever hear him off the cuff. Makes Bush look good. Rev Wright is front and center in this election. The apple never falls far from the tree. Wright is a racist and so is BO, he is just beautied up in his looks. If this country elects a left wing loser in the mold of Carter, it deserves what it gets. Last time I checked, Bush isn’t in this election so you really need to move on.
May 13, 2008 - 1:40 pm 9. Assistant Village Idiot:Reading comments from the Carmencozy supporters of Obama just leads me to such despair, day after day. I cannot fathom how the legitimate questions that arise around this man do not even penetrate their consciousness. I can easily understand preferring one set of strengths and weaknesses to another in a candidate. I cannot imagine the depth of denial that leads someone to think that Obama has all-caps PROVEN anything, or is eligible to be even considered a rare sort of leader. It’s perfectly respectable to vote negatively against Hillary or decide that BHO’s positives outweigh his negatives. But this starry-eyed wishiness is simply frightening coming from an adult. Barack is a pleasant, intelligent man who is a poor judge of character and has little experience. His accommodating words and doctrinaire voting do not match up.
May 13, 2008 - 2:06 pm 10. Cat:Actually the only thing Obama has proven thus far is his ability to rise to the top of the current Democratic primary race. He is a good speaker and obviously a very bright individual but nothing thus far has proven to many Americans that he has what it takes to face the problems which will be confronted by the next president of the United States.
As to the whole issue of racism in this campaign one has to wonder why it’s only described in derogatory terms when it’s used to characterize white voters. When taking about the 90+% of black voters are we to believe these people are supporting Obama because of his political philosophy? It is amusing to see comment after comment talking about Obama’s ability to unite America, when in reality that’s about as far from the truth as it gets.
May 13, 2008 - 2:13 pm 11. S321Saint:For the first time in a LONG time..you REALLY have to choose between the best of three evils.
May 13, 2008 - 3:29 pm 12. David Thomson:Hilliary-corrupt-sadistic-anti-american
Obama-a perrenial light weight who would be lost as President exactly like Carter.
McCain-liberal philosophy for the most part that will go along with the world trend rather than make America great again.
So lets see..do we let Hilly give America over to the UN? Do we let Obama fiddle and giggle while the economy and our security tanks? Do we let McCain follow the leadership of a foreign power? Choices..choices..choices…
“If we are going to cry foul with the race card in WV, let us also look at the other side of the coin.”
According to the left-wing elites, black people cannot be racists. They are supposedly powerless and exploited by the white majority. This is why they are stunned by the reaction to Jeremiah Wright. The dude was merely speaking truth to power. Alas, those who live in the real world outside of places like Cambridge, Massachusetts think differently. This is why “Barry” Obama will not likely win in November. The country is very ready to embrace a black president—as long as the individual is a center-right candidate. A leftist whack job like Obama, however, is deemed unacceptable.
May 13, 2008 - 4:21 pm 13. LCSusan:Hey, Drunkblogger, I’m working on a group that will be both truly democratic and a party as well – which of course means that drunk blogging will be very much the order of the day.
And you’re right, I am (one of those things that’s hard to refer to in the past tense) Hil supporter and having her on the ticket would in no way make me more likely to vote for Senator Obama as circumstances currently stand (always leave yourself an out, hey, I think I’ve just thought of another rule for my party).
http://strictlyanecdotal.com/2008/05/13/the-democratic-party-is-in-no-way-democratic.aspx
May 13, 2008 - 4:53 pm 14. Olivia:Irish Gal is right. Look at the man when he is not with his dear teleprompter and he’s bumbling idiot in an empty suit.
Farrakhan said it himself “Barack Obama has been very careful not to position himself as Reverend Jesse Jackson or Reverend Al Sharpton as a promoter of “The Black Cause.” He has been groomed, wisely so, to be seen more as a unifier, rather than one who speaks only for the hurt of Black people.”
What the hell kind of craziness that entails who knows? But I don’t want to take my chances and find out.
May 13, 2008 - 5:19 pm 15. Doc Disgruntled:Stephen,
May 13, 2008 - 5:29 pm 16. bilbo:How many votes did you lose W.Va by as a teen? Just wondering (mine is a G&T),
DD
stephen,
a couple of bones to pick with your asides.
“Of course, if it turns out Obama really can’t win whites (like he did in Iowa but not since)”
no one won any group in iowa — maybe 2% of the population votes in the surreal theatre that is the iowa caucuses, and those caucusing are the hardcore nuts. why both democrat and republican parties continue to let that hayseed state (and process) be the opening touchdown of the super bowl is beyond me, but that’s a topic for another day.
“it will be at least in part because the Clintons keep saying, “I’ve heard that Obama is black, you know. And according to some, that’s generating some racist attacks in the rainbow party.”
whether Clinton is playing some racial codeword game i don’t know, but i do think its unfair to dismiss voter concerns that Obama is a Manchurian Farrakhan. up until SNL decided to make fun of the press core maybe 2 months ago, voters knew literally nothing about Obama other than that he seemed nice. now, in those intervening 2 months, everyone suddenly learns his lifelong father figure is a wackjob racist black nationalist, he hangs out with a domestic terrorist that he calls a “local professor”, he owes his home to shady Machine fixer, he wife oozes resentment, and that Obama refuses to denounce anyone other Don Imus for their repulsive views (though in fairness to Imus, he was at least making a bad joke).
May 13, 2008 - 5:43 pm 17. Joe Buzz:I am a white Appalachian American and would vote for the likes of Mike
May 13, 2008 - 5:43 pm 18. Rev. Right:Steele or JC Watts in a heartbeat. Mr. Obama not.
G*d D*mn Amerikka! O’bamma ‘08
May 13, 2008 - 6:45 pm 19. Clinton's West Virginia Primary Win: Significant Or Meanless?:[...] –Pajamas Media’s Vodkapundit aka Stephen Green did his famous “live blogging” (a must read as always) and summarizes it this way: Here it is: Hillary’s big, big win. The Obama camp will point out that West Virginia doesn’t really matter, because he already has the nomination all but sewn up, that it’s just a “distraction” from bigger contests, and that WV is filled with crackers, anyway. Although the language they’ll use will be a bit more discreet. [...]
May 13, 2008 - 7:51 pm 20. gordo:What are the obama cultists going to say when mccain buries him in november? i imagine they will stomp their little feet and say “no fair, no fair” and proclaim that they are the enlightened ones and that the rest of america is a bunch of racists. maybe when they grow up they will realize that the glib man they worship is a deep left fielder with no experience. maybe they will note that obama’s constituencies are blacks (quite understandable) and the young (and stupid) and mccain’s serious people who understand what it takes to lead this country. the obama worshipers, if they are smart, will look at this as an education and put their lollipops away.
May 13, 2008 - 8:29 pm 21. Jude:I think this may be the biggest blowout of the Democratic primaries. And with Silky on the ballot, no less.
The Democrats now have to live with the inherent fissures and weaknesses in the identity politics they strove so long to create.
The Republicans, alas, have to live with the fact that the voters have figured out that they are addicted to pork, committed to No Child Left Behind, making global warming noises, and afraid of their own shadows.
So maybe McCain wins, but finds the House and Senate so solidly Democrat that he has trouble making his vetoes stick (though I think he’ll quickly find the moxie to issue lots of vetoes).
May 13, 2008 - 9:12 pm 22. Col. Ted Westhusing:As the U.S. is about to attack Iran, it is the absolute responsibility of everybody in uniform to disobey an order that is either illegal or immoral, including the use of weapons of mass destruction. They cannot commit crimes against humanity.
May 13, 2008 - 9:15 pm 23. David Thomson:“I am a white Appalachian American and would vote for the likes of Mike Steele or JC Watts in a heartbeat. Mr. Obama not.”
Yup, I am sure you would gladly vote for a center-right presidential candidate. Racism has nothing to do with the non-Ivy League whites rejection of Obama. It all has to do with self preservation. They innately realize that Obama and his guilt tripped white buddies plan on really sticking it to them.
May 13, 2008 - 10:23 pm 24. Jim Rockford:Col Ted — sadly America will continue the long tradition begun by Jimmy Carter, then Reagan (Beirut) and Clinton (Khobar Towers, Argentina, etc) of rolling over and playing dead for Iran. Iran will get it’s nukes, and we’ll lose cities. They’ve said what they want (nuke Israel out of existence, destroy America) and have done their best to do it. If you liked the party Khomeni and pals threw America in 79-80, or the Beirut Embassy and Marine Barracks bombings, or Khobar Towers, you’ll love the nuclear flash Ahmadinejad has planned for a major American City. Coming soon near you.
If GWB bombed the hell out of Iran, most Americans would cheer it. Payback has been a long time coming, they deserve it, not the least of which is killing our guys in Iraq. But Bush has the spine of a jellyfish, so he won’t. Sadly.
Whites have been told their racist by guys like Wright, Farrakhan, etc. for so long it’s lost any meaning. Instead you have identity politics, driven by spoils division. White voters know damn well that Black pols will drive policies and spoils to their backers. More taxes (out of white voters pockets) for more welfare and government employment (which excludes whites, check out your local DMV). Soft on crime policies (Blacks like it, white hate it). More affirmative action (taking away opportunities from whites to give to blacks).
Obama will get Blacks, College Kids (demographically small, recall the baby bust?) and professional yuppies (outnumbered significantly by blue collar whites). Clinton’s strengths have been in appealing to white working class voters, by understanding that cultural concerns matter, economically. Crime, drugs, promotion of promiscuity, single motherhood, all equate to not being able to move upwards for white working class voters. So they reject that for cultural conservatism which helps them move up. Obama can never understand that and will lose because of it.
May 13, 2008 - 11:40 pm 25. Skylark:Cat said:
“[Obama] is a good speaker and obviously a very bright individual but nothing thus far has proven to many Americans that he has what it takes to face the problems which will be confronted by the next president of the United States.”
Uh… You mean like George W Bush has?
Cat also said:
“As to the whole issue of racism in this campaign one has to wonder why it’s only described in derogatory terms when it’s used to characterize white voters.”
Well… I certainly don’t want to continue the racial aspect of this election but —please— consider this: Black Americans have been voting for white presidential candidates ever since they have been ALLOWED to vote in this country (which wasn’t all that long ago, I might add). It seems a bit conspicuous when you have much of an entire state refusing vote for Obama under ANY circumstance.
May 13, 2008 - 11:53 pm 26. klrtz1:Red, green or blue,
May 14, 2008 - 2:37 am 27. Jabba the Tutt:Black or white,
We’ll all vote for Obama
When he’s President for Life.
Col. Ted Westhusing:
As the U.S. is about to attack Iran, it is the absolute responsibility of everybody in uniform to disobey an order that is either illegal or immoral, including the use of weapons of mass destruction. They cannot commit crimes against humanity.
Well, Colonel Ted, you’ve just made the 479th prediction of a US attack on Iran, of which zero have been correct. I respect your guts for going against the odds.
Even the clueless 9/11 commission told us that the terrorists were at war with us, but we weren’t at war with them. Iran has been at war with us ever since the Mullahs took over. And Colonel Ted, the longer we wait to take out the Mullah Regime, the more likely we will end up having to use WMD, likely in response to an Iranian first strike.
So, Colonel Ted, like the rest of the “antiwar” lefties, you are supporting the creation of a situation, in which far more people will be killed, than if the situtation had be taken care of earlier. Just think of yourself as Prime Minister Chamberlain in 1938. You’re willing to throw Iraq under the bus, Afghanistan under the bus and the Persian Gulf under the bus.
That’s a lot of casualties all over, Your Enlightenedness, preening in moral superiority, while wallowing in filth. Dumb*ss.
May 14, 2008 - 4:01 am 28. Assistant Village Idiot:Skylark – Polls to the contrary, history will be very kind to Bush. It will take a generation. You must engage the thought-experiment of “what could possibly have happened had we done differently” before evaluating any course of action.
Next, how is black people having voted for white people relevant to the discussion? If the population were divided 50-50 it might make some sense, but in the current demographic reality, the moral equivalence you are attempting to draw is murky. And who said that there is any state that has a majority of people who would never vote for any black person? Did you actually read the article? Or any article?
May 14, 2008 - 10:01 pm 29. Tony Grace:To those lamenting the fact that black voters are casting ballots almost 100% percent for Obama.
I point out that it might be because black americans have NEVER had the opportunity to vote for a viable black candidate. So why would anyone be surprised by them doing so now.
The question will become legitimate when blacks have the opportunity to vote for the SECOND viable candidate.
May 15, 2008 - 8:52 am 30. DorothyBrooks:The Democratic Party is proving itself not democratic. What kind of a foolish Primary is this when Republicans can vote, some states have those stupid caucases, others have both, then the ‘Super Duper delegates are allotted in some manner that no one understands and finally the big boys determine the candidate in some secret meeting?It is a “brokered election” with an agreement that a few delegates will come out for Obamba each day thereby elimanating Clinton as soon as possible. Have voters really thought through this whole scene? It’s enough to send you looking for a third party.
May 16, 2008 - 9:37 am 31. CBD:Let see, 100% of Blacks will vote for Obama only because he is a “viable candidate”, but if 100% of Whites vote for McCain because he is a viable candidate, then Whites are racists. Only would a Liberal, Socialist candidate like Obama be considered a viable candidate. If he is a viable candidate, then I know where Jimmy Hoffa is buried. Obama is another Liberal, Socialist, Communist candidate from Chicage. Anyone wonder why Oprah is no longer being seen in public campainging for Obama? The rating of her show have taken steep nose dive and she is desperate to regain the viewers who made her- White women.
Sep 30, 2008 - 6:50 pm