Economy May Not Be Bad Enough to Help Dems
Pelosi, Reid, and Obama have left the door open for Republicans.
We have seen seven straight months of seasonally adjusted job losses. The housing and mortgage markets remain in the doldrums. The July Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports released this past week indicate that inflation looms as a serious potential problem, possibly forcing Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to raise interest rates at a very bad time.
Things are not going well. But the election questions are:
- First, is the economy bad enough — or perceived that way — to affect the election? Because of its unacceptable current condition, combined with years of relentless negativity by traditional media even when times were good, the answer is “yes.”
- Second, who will get pinned with the blame?
Normally the answer to the second question would be easy. If it’s bad, or perceived as such, it must be the fault of the party holding the White House, and that party’s presidential candidate is in deep trouble.
But I don’t see that being the case this November, for four reasons.
First, Pelosi, Obama, Reid, and the Democratic Party are on the side of energy obstruction, while the Republicans and McCain are pushing the drill-now, do-it-all alternative that is clearly what people prefer.
Second, the moratorium on most offshore drilling, which expires on September 30, is something that must be voted on every year. Pelosi, Obama, and Reid continue to act as if they’ll be able to extend it. The markets doubt it. The harder Pelosi et al. try, the more visible their failure will be. If they push too hard, they will be courting electoral suicide. The lose-lose problem is that a back-off will then give the GOP bragging rights.
Third, the large states with the worst economies (Michigan, Obama’s Illinois, and Ohio) happen to have Democratic governors, and another (California) might as well have one. I don’t recall a period of economic sluggishness where four states performed so poorly while the rest of the country for the most part held its own.
Finally, no presidential candidate, at least in my lifetime, has called for massive tax increases in a difficult economy. Barack Obama has. His tax proposals are playing so poorly that he’s pulling back from some of his most extreme positions. One example: his idea to apply “the payroll tax” of 12.4% to all income over $250,000 (6.2% employee, 6.2% employer) has morphed into a “well, it might be okay if it’s 2% to 4%.”
But it’s too late. Everyone knows that it’s tax increases Obama wants, and if he becomes president, it’s tax increases we will get, regardless of their effect on the economy. He has turned what should have been an electoral advantage into a handicap. His vulnerability is quite understandable.
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Tom Blumer owns a training and development company based in Mason, Ohio, outside of Cincinnati. He presents personal finance-related workshops and speeches at companies, and runs BizzyBlog.com.
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23 Comments
1. Ed Wallis:Mr. Blumer, while your thoughts have merit, I’m not exactly persuaded. I’ve also read elsewhere that it is exactly during BETTER economic times when voters are most receptive to the “fix-what-ain’t-broken” socialist policy blatherings of “The Dems.”
Aug 22, 2008 - 2:36 am 2. Tom Blumer:Ed, you’re generally right. I think the Dem screw-ups on oil during their 2 years in charge hurt their ability to pin the blame on the GOP. But, we’ll see.
Aug 22, 2008 - 4:14 am 3. BizzyBlog » Latest Pajamas Media Column (’Economy May Not Be Bad Enough to Help Dems’) Is Up:[...] It’s here. [...]
Aug 22, 2008 - 4:19 am 4. Ed Wallis:TOM – On oil…YOU BETCHA! To compound the “screw-ups,” after years of blocking drilling, NOW all of a sudden the Dem’s favorite melody is, “it will take years to develop” as a ‘reason’ (sic) why not to drill. SOMEBODY must be able to come up with a 30-second spot to satirize the irony (among other things…heh) of this.
Aug 22, 2008 - 4:52 am 5. saleboter:think it’s bad for the dems now – wait until there is a oil SHORTAGE. Then the dem solution will be rationing.
everone will love that!
Aug 22, 2008 - 6:32 am 6. Self-hating boomer:I agree. Historically, Republicans were perceived as the party with the solutions to economic problems. The genius of Clinton was that he managed to convince the American Public otherwise. Pelosi, Reid, and Obama flushed that all down the toilet when they insisted (and largely continue to insist) on repeating absurd environmental talking points while people were spending $100 on a fillup.
If there’s a better gift to the GOP possible, I don’t know what it is.
Aug 22, 2008 - 9:40 am 7. BackwardsBoy:This is what happens when highly trained lawyers are in charge. Economics is “above their pay grade”. Perhaps if they spent more time away from Washington, talking to the public, they would have a much better idea of the end results of their actions.
Aug 22, 2008 - 10:07 am 8. nobozons:Democrats support of the lunatic fringe of the conservation movement makes them responsible for the slowing economy and escalating gas prices. Obama moron has revealed that he wants to kill the magic goose that provides the gas and any other successful company. Democrats are the party of hate : hate the United States.
Aug 22, 2008 - 11:12 am 9. Joseph Somsel:Economists are by no means immune from being out of touch. Look at how many thought carbon and/or gasoline taxes were good ideas. Seems it didn’t occur to many of them that the majority of voters would not see the solution to $4 gasoline as being $5 gasoline by government mandate.
My response to such proposals is “OK, let’s vote on it!”
Aug 22, 2008 - 11:23 am 10. Sandra M:Putin has become powerful because of OIL.
We have oil but the Democrats refuse to allow us to drill for it.
Further, on their watch (the past two years in control of the House and
Senate) not only have fuel prices rises but so have food prices, because of the corn to ethanol subsidy, a subsidy which is causing hunger in poor countries.
Were the Republicans to hire whoever’s done the T. Boone Pickens commercials, they can expect to regain the Senate, House and retain the White House.
Aug 22, 2008 - 12:05 pm 11. Moultrie:The Dims are so bad the reps might get a do-over and regain the Senate, House and retain the White House….that would be sweet!
Aug 22, 2008 - 12:26 pm 12. AdrianS:Philip J. Berg, Esq. Files Federal Lawsuit Requesting Obama Be Removed as a Candidate as he does not meet the Qualifications for President.
http://www.nextgenerationcorp.com/NextGenBlog/?p=43
Aug 22, 2008 - 3:45 pm 13. P. Ami:I would prefer that at least one house in Congress remained Dem. I don’t think the country does well when every branch is controled by one party. It leads to arrogance, corruption and disenfranchisement of a large contingent of the national view. However much we oppose the views usually championed by the Dems, seeing that they make sense to a pretty large set of Americans there needs to be some outlet and voice to their desires.
Aug 22, 2008 - 4:08 pm 14. Self-hating boomer:Update on your update: Oil fell over $6 today.
Aug 22, 2008 - 4:27 pm 15. Vivienne Avare:IF YOU THINK THE DELUDED STRAWMAN OBAMA, CAN HELP OUR ECONOMY MORE, I’D LIKE TO SELL YOU THE BROOKLYN BRIDGE! WE HAD OUR CHANCE TO GET FINANCIAL RELIEF WITH CLINTON AND SHE WAS THE ONE TO BEAT MCCAIN! BUT THE BEGUILED, DUPED SMITTENED OBAMACANS, WITH THEIR ONE TRACK MINDS
Aug 22, 2008 - 5:14 pm 16. Vivienne Avare:HAD THEIR WAY. BEWARE, BUYERS REMORSE PENDING! NO THANKS FOR YOUR WISHFUL THINKING, GULLIBLE BELIEFS. GET REAL! EX DEMOCRAT
WHAT HAPPENED? NOT PRINTED (PM)
Aug 22, 2008 - 5:18 pm 17. Steve-o:The state of the economy will change little between now and the election. Get ready for a spate of articles about how bad it is anyway, as the media attempt to drag Obama across the finish line.
Aug 22, 2008 - 6:13 pm 18. John Moore:I agree with Steve-o. The same media that has falsely been proclaiming a recession for the last six months will show us one hard luck or scary economic story after another. They will do their best to convince Americans that the Great Depression was a better economy than we have today.
Aug 22, 2008 - 8:02 pm 19. Self-hating boomer:They’ve been doing it. How many times have you read that the housing market is the worst it’s been since the ’30s. They leave off the part about “in Nevada”.
Aug 23, 2008 - 7:03 am 20. Vivienne Avare:THE WEAK OBAMA AND STRONG MAN BIDEN SHOULD REVERSE POSITIONS. THEY BOTH PLAGIARIZE, WORDS JUST WORDS AND THEY ARE FULL OF IT HA! WHAT HAPPENED TO THE DELUDED PRETENDERS MESSAGE OF A NEW KIND OF POLITICS? HE PICKS THE ENTRENCHED WASHINGTON INSIDER,JOE, WHO IS CLOSELY CONNECTED FOR 35 YEARS TO THE ESTABLISHMENT! POLITICS AS USUAL. GIVE US A BREAK!
Aug 23, 2008 - 5:08 pm 21. BizzyBlog » The POR Economy: Not Too Poor to Swing an Election:[...] This was posted at Pajamas Media on Friday morning under the title “Economy May Not Be Bad Enough to Help [...]
Aug 24, 2008 - 7:45 am 22. Vivienne Avare:I’m waiting to hear an explanation about McCains so called 90% voting with Bush! Its been said that most votes cast, covered small issues, which is commonplace and typical amongst politicians, who vote along Party lines. The approx., 10% that McCain voted against, concerned important policies that left Americans more vulnerable. Ex Democrat
Aug 30, 2008 - 2:50 pm 23. Thaddeus Buttmunch MD:Obama may lose on radicalism and skin color. I supported Billary b/c I CANNOT stomach that old Vietnam Psycho McCain! We NEED Universal healthcare and to reign in Big Pharm. I’m a Doctor..I Know! We need electric cars and to put big trucks on caternary (trolley lines) on the superhighways so they do not burn diesel. Demand not supply is the problem with OPEC. and global warming is a MenacE.
Sep 22, 2008 - 10:20 am