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Economy May Not Be Bad Enough to Help Dems
Pelosi, Reid, and Obama have left the door open for Republicans.
In early July, I was concerned enough about the antics of Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, and Harry Reid that I coined the term “POR economy” to describe what they were creating with their anti-oil, high-tax agenda.
The tax-happy, Big Oil-punishing trio seemed to believe that a poor third-quarter economy would enhance their chances of winning the presidency and larger Congressional and Senate majorities. They appeared to be in a position to make it happen.
Their energy intransigence, the prospect of automatic tax increases as the Bush tax cuts expired, and potential further increases under a President Obama led me to observe that:
Businesses and investors are responding to their [Pelosi, Obama, and Reid's] total lack of seriousness by battening down the hatches and preparing for the worst.
Three things have occurred since then to greatly reduce the chances that the economy will move into negative territory in the third quarter:
- President Bush and House Republicans have awoken from their slumber and gained the upper hand in the energy debate.
- Previously lukewarm John McCain has come out clearly for expanded drilling.
- Obama has performed poorly on the campaign trail, culminating with last Saturday’s disaster at Rick Warren’s church. Obama’s position “is more vulnerable than at any point since the primaries concluded.”
As a result, the palpable near-panic businesses and investors were exhibiting in early July has largely subsided.
The biggest factor in their improved outlook has been oil’s price retreat of over 20% from its all-time high of $147. [Update: in the two days since this column was written, oil prices have headed upward again, primarily because of the Russia-Georgia situation.] Although consumption has fallen, the bigger influences have clearly been President Bush’s executive order allowing offshore drilling in parts of Alaska and the tide turning towards the GOP in the Outer Continental Shelf drilling debate. These two developments have shown that the mere prospect of increased supply can bring down current prices, making it obvious that actual increases in supply, even if nominal at first, will bring them down even more.
Don’t get me wrong. This economy still isn’t, and shouldn’t be, impressing anyone. If it replicates the second quarter’s current sub-2% growth performance (pending revisions), that will be nice, given how things looked just a short time ago. But it remains unacceptable.
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Tom Blumer owns a training and development company based in Mason, Ohio, outside of Cincinnati. He presents personal finance-related workshops and speeches at companies, and runs BizzyBlog.com.
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23 Comments
1. Ed Wallis:Mr. Blumer, while your thoughts have merit, I’m not exactly persuaded. I’ve also read elsewhere that it is exactly during BETTER economic times when voters are most receptive to the “fix-what-ain’t-broken” socialist policy blatherings of “The Dems.”
Aug 22, 2008 - 2:36 am 2. Tom Blumer:Ed, you’re generally right. I think the Dem screw-ups on oil during their 2 years in charge hurt their ability to pin the blame on the GOP. But, we’ll see.
Aug 22, 2008 - 4:14 am 3. BizzyBlog » Latest Pajamas Media Column (’Economy May Not Be Bad Enough to Help Dems’) Is Up:[...] It’s here. [...]
Aug 22, 2008 - 4:19 am 4. Ed Wallis:TOM – On oil…YOU BETCHA! To compound the “screw-ups,” after years of blocking drilling, NOW all of a sudden the Dem’s favorite melody is, “it will take years to develop” as a ‘reason’ (sic) why not to drill. SOMEBODY must be able to come up with a 30-second spot to satirize the irony (among other things…heh) of this.
Aug 22, 2008 - 4:52 am 5. saleboter:think it’s bad for the dems now – wait until there is a oil SHORTAGE. Then the dem solution will be rationing.
everone will love that!
Aug 22, 2008 - 6:32 am 6. Self-hating boomer:I agree. Historically, Republicans were perceived as the party with the solutions to economic problems. The genius of Clinton was that he managed to convince the American Public otherwise. Pelosi, Reid, and Obama flushed that all down the toilet when they insisted (and largely continue to insist) on repeating absurd environmental talking points while people were spending $100 on a fillup.
If there’s a better gift to the GOP possible, I don’t know what it is.
Aug 22, 2008 - 9:40 am 7. BackwardsBoy:This is what happens when highly trained lawyers are in charge. Economics is “above their pay grade”. Perhaps if they spent more time away from Washington, talking to the public, they would have a much better idea of the end results of their actions.
Aug 22, 2008 - 10:07 am 8. nobozons:Democrats support of the lunatic fringe of the conservation movement makes them responsible for the slowing economy and escalating gas prices. Obama moron has revealed that he wants to kill the magic goose that provides the gas and any other successful company. Democrats are the party of hate : hate the United States.
Aug 22, 2008 - 11:12 am 9. Joseph Somsel:Economists are by no means immune from being out of touch. Look at how many thought carbon and/or gasoline taxes were good ideas. Seems it didn’t occur to many of them that the majority of voters would not see the solution to $4 gasoline as being $5 gasoline by government mandate.
My response to such proposals is “OK, let’s vote on it!”
Aug 22, 2008 - 11:23 am 10. Sandra M:Putin has become powerful because of OIL.
We have oil but the Democrats refuse to allow us to drill for it.
Further, on their watch (the past two years in control of the House and
Senate) not only have fuel prices rises but so have food prices, because of the corn to ethanol subsidy, a subsidy which is causing hunger in poor countries.
Were the Republicans to hire whoever’s done the T. Boone Pickens commercials, they can expect to regain the Senate, House and retain the White House.
Aug 22, 2008 - 12:05 pm 11. Moultrie:The Dims are so bad the reps might get a do-over and regain the Senate, House and retain the White House….that would be sweet!
Aug 22, 2008 - 12:26 pm 12. AdrianS:Philip J. Berg, Esq. Files Federal Lawsuit Requesting Obama Be Removed as a Candidate as he does not meet the Qualifications for President.
http://www.nextgenerationcorp.com/NextGenBlog/?p=43
Aug 22, 2008 - 3:45 pm 13. P. Ami:I would prefer that at least one house in Congress remained Dem. I don’t think the country does well when every branch is controled by one party. It leads to arrogance, corruption and disenfranchisement of a large contingent of the national view. However much we oppose the views usually championed by the Dems, seeing that they make sense to a pretty large set of Americans there needs to be some outlet and voice to their desires.
Aug 22, 2008 - 4:08 pm 14. Self-hating boomer:Update on your update: Oil fell over $6 today.
Aug 22, 2008 - 4:27 pm 15. Vivienne Avare:IF YOU THINK THE DELUDED STRAWMAN OBAMA, CAN HELP OUR ECONOMY MORE, I’D LIKE TO SELL YOU THE BROOKLYN BRIDGE! WE HAD OUR CHANCE TO GET FINANCIAL RELIEF WITH CLINTON AND SHE WAS THE ONE TO BEAT MCCAIN! BUT THE BEGUILED, DUPED SMITTENED OBAMACANS, WITH THEIR ONE TRACK MINDS
Aug 22, 2008 - 5:14 pm 16. Vivienne Avare:HAD THEIR WAY. BEWARE, BUYERS REMORSE PENDING! NO THANKS FOR YOUR WISHFUL THINKING, GULLIBLE BELIEFS. GET REAL! EX DEMOCRAT
WHAT HAPPENED? NOT PRINTED (PM)
Aug 22, 2008 - 5:18 pm 17. Steve-o:The state of the economy will change little between now and the election. Get ready for a spate of articles about how bad it is anyway, as the media attempt to drag Obama across the finish line.
Aug 22, 2008 - 6:13 pm 18. John Moore:I agree with Steve-o. The same media that has falsely been proclaiming a recession for the last six months will show us one hard luck or scary economic story after another. They will do their best to convince Americans that the Great Depression was a better economy than we have today.
Aug 22, 2008 - 8:02 pm 19. Self-hating boomer:They’ve been doing it. How many times have you read that the housing market is the worst it’s been since the ’30s. They leave off the part about “in Nevada”.
Aug 23, 2008 - 7:03 am 20. Vivienne Avare:THE WEAK OBAMA AND STRONG MAN BIDEN SHOULD REVERSE POSITIONS. THEY BOTH PLAGIARIZE, WORDS JUST WORDS AND THEY ARE FULL OF IT HA! WHAT HAPPENED TO THE DELUDED PRETENDERS MESSAGE OF A NEW KIND OF POLITICS? HE PICKS THE ENTRENCHED WASHINGTON INSIDER,JOE, WHO IS CLOSELY CONNECTED FOR 35 YEARS TO THE ESTABLISHMENT! POLITICS AS USUAL. GIVE US A BREAK!
Aug 23, 2008 - 5:08 pm 21. BizzyBlog » The POR Economy: Not Too Poor to Swing an Election:[...] This was posted at Pajamas Media on Friday morning under the title “Economy May Not Be Bad Enough to Help [...]
Aug 24, 2008 - 7:45 am 22. Vivienne Avare:I’m waiting to hear an explanation about McCains so called 90% voting with Bush! Its been said that most votes cast, covered small issues, which is commonplace and typical amongst politicians, who vote along Party lines. The approx., 10% that McCain voted against, concerned important policies that left Americans more vulnerable. Ex Democrat
Aug 30, 2008 - 2:50 pm 23. Thaddeus Buttmunch MD:Obama may lose on radicalism and skin color. I supported Billary b/c I CANNOT stomach that old Vietnam Psycho McCain! We NEED Universal healthcare and to reign in Big Pharm. I’m a Doctor..I Know! We need electric cars and to put big trucks on caternary (trolley lines) on the superhighways so they do not burn diesel. Demand not supply is the problem with OPEC. and global warming is a MenacE.
Sep 22, 2008 - 10:20 am