Forecast for Latin America: Cold (War) Winds from Russia
Putin and Medvedev's renewed meddling in the Americas makes it feel like the 1960s again.
Forty-six years ago this week, the Cuban Missile Crisis was resolved when President John F. Kennedy agreed to remove U.S. missiles from Turkey. In his pact with Nikita Khrushchev, Kennedy also agreed that the U.S. would neither invade Cuba nor allow an exile invasion of Cuba, a decision that converted America from Fidel Castro’s enemy to his de facto protector. The Soviets, for their part, agreed to remove the missiles they had snuck into the island nation under Kennedy’s nose.
Just a year after the missile crisis Kennedy would be assassinated by Lee Harvey Oswald, a communist admirer of Fidel Castro, and Cuba would remain an important client of the Soviet Union for the duration of the Cold War.
Well, global warming be damned; it may not be another Cold War yet but it’s starting to get very chilly in Latin America thanks to a Russian breeze that’s blowing in from across the Atlantic. On Monday, Reuters reported, “The Russian and Cuban military will exchange experience in organizing tactical air defense and in training officers.”
This is the latest in a series of eyebrow-raising actions by Russia in Latin America. In September, two Russian strategic bombers landed in Venezuela to conduct “training missions.” Also in September, Russia announced that it would dispatch warships to Venezuela to conduct joint exercises in November.
One thing is certain; Russia is trying hard to get attention from the U.S. Or perhaps it’s simply trying to unload weapons in exchange for Venezuelan petrodollars. Or probably both.
Russia under Putin and now Dmitry Medvedev, Putin’s puppet president, has acted in ways that are reminiscent of the bad old days of the “evil empire.” Many observers believe Russia is acting out in response to NATO’s expansion, which has left Russia surrounded by former Soviet states that are now allied with the U.S. Some also see these actions as a response to proposed missile defense systems in Europe.
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Henry Louis Gomez is Cuban-American and blogs at BabaluBlog.com.
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19 Comments
1. TomF:So is most of America that sure that Obama is ready to handle all this? Whoever wins this election, it looks like we have checker players coming to a chess match, with the likes of Putin.
Oct 30, 2008 - 1:41 am 2. Marc Malone:Meaningless. Unless economies recover quickly, driving demand and oil prices back up, it’s all unsustainable. Russia and Vzla are going broke fast.
Oct 30, 2008 - 2:44 am 3. Gene:Actually, they are falling right into our trap…. Let Russia and Venezuela spend billions on silly weapons which will never be used and military exercises that cost quite a penny.
Oct 30, 2008 - 2:52 am 4. Amphipolis:Once Chavez is booted out after his popularity falls (because that’s what happens to South American Dictators) all those weapons will be simply turned over to the US intelligence community for thorough tech rundown -thanks in advance Venezuela!
Reagan’s actions had a similar result in 1980s, when the USSR spent billions just to stay “ahead” of America’s military build up; Soviet over-spending and eventual exhaustion of funds contributed to the USSR’s collapse. This is what will happen to Venezuela’s current regime, which is already experiencing difficulty in ballancing its budget with the low price of oil and its ubsiding of Latin American pinko dictatorships…
I figured Chavez would seize Cuba and install a puppet regime but for his inability to control the sea link between the two nations.
Enter Russia.
Oct 30, 2008 - 5:40 am 5. Gene44:Don’t worry so much as President Obama will have a talk with them and everything will be wonderful – just wait and see! In the meantime it may be time to start building that old nuclear shelter again.
Oct 30, 2008 - 5:49 am 6. cedarford:Lets not forget this is what should be for any thinking person, well-anticipated payback for all the meddling we have done in Russia’s backyard in the last 15 years.
Bush I was very cautious about Russia, so was Nixon – still carrying great weight in his advice to leaders in America until his death in 1994 – about avoiding humiliating and rubbing Russia’s face in the dirt after the Soviet Union fell.
They believed that there was no need to punish the Russians, encroach in their spheres of interest…because we should cultivate Russia as a friend and partner.
This approach slowly went out after Nixon died, Bush I was defeated, and the Republicans in charge of Congress and Clinton began listening to the Neocons and those that wanted the Cold War to continue to be fought after it was won.
Thus a string of actions that DID punish and embarass Russia. Economic and financial humiliations on them, crony capitalism and corruption from the West caused widespread poverty and disruption inside Russia. Their stands on longtime allies like Serbia were ignored. NATO was moved up to their doorstep. They were blown off about Iraq. They offered us bases and a free path into Afghanistan and full military cooperation in all the maps, intelligence, intel they had from their own war there – then found out the US was plotting against them and trying to arrange so that oil and other resources did not go through Russia to other nations – but ploys to put the US in control. (which led Russia & China to join and form the Shanghai Cooperative Group to block the USA from dominating Central Asia.)
Then we recognized Kosovo. Decided we would build a missile defence against “Iran” not in Turkey or another near country – but on Russia’s doorstep with radar scanning not Iran, but Russian airspace. Finally, we sent agents and soldiers into Russia’s sphere of interest and trying fomenting “democratic revolutions” to place anti-Russian governments in Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Azerbaijan – and continued efforts to “turn” other former parts of the Russian Empire against them and beholden to America. Installed soldiers in Georgia aimed at training Georgians to “resist” non-Georgian threats…like err…Russians and their allies?
Now we have what Bush I, Kissinger, Nixon, and even Reagan warned about in the early 90s – making Russia aggrieved and revanchist eventually, and with their late 80s collapse over – with the power to again meddle in our backyard or make life difficult for us.
Russia in Latin America?
Trying to block Caspian oil routes?
Ending our logistics path into Afghanistan, leaving us only shaky nation Pakistan as a way to resupply American and NATO forces?
Doing bomber and recon runs again off Alaska and our coasts?
Pushing Europe and Israel hard to give up money the oligarchs plundered from Russia?
Gee, what a surprise!
Oct 30, 2008 - 6:23 am 7. PoliGazette » Russia’s Influence in Latin America:[...] Gomez summarized Russia’s infiltration of Latin America for Pajamas Media [...]
Oct 30, 2008 - 6:30 am 8. Estado de Previdência » Vento frio de Leste | Blogue:[...] Henry Gomez, Forecast for Latin America: Cold (War) Winds from Russia, no Pajamas Media: Well, global warming be damned; it may not be another Cold War yet but it’s starting to get very chilly in Latin America thanks to a Russian breeze that’s blowing in from across the Atlantic. On Monday, Reuters reported, “The Russian and Cuban military will exchange experience in organizing tactical air defense and in training officers.”This is the latest in a series of eyebrow-raising actions by Russia in Latin America. In September, two Russian strategic bombers landed in Venezuela to conduct “training missions.” Also in September, Russia announced that it would dispatch warships to Venezuela to conduct joint exercises in November. One thing is certain; Russia is trying hard to get attention from the U.S. Or perhaps it’s simply trying to unload weapons in exchange for Venezuelan petrodollars. Or probably both. [...]
Oct 30, 2008 - 11:49 am 9. Allan Erickson:And then there’s this on top of everything else.
IRAN TESTS A NUKE UNDERGROUND?
Link and related stories:
http://allanerickson.wordpress.com/2008/10/30/best-election-video-hands-down/
Oct 30, 2008 - 1:58 pm 10. Duh:well-anticipated payback for all the meddling we have done in Russia’s backyard in the last 15 years.
Uhn… As if Russia hadn’t been meddling in Latin America since the 60’s or even earlier… Where do you think the money for the guerrillas and propaganda came from?
Oct 30, 2008 - 3:40 pm 11. Tony:The only evil empire at the moment is the American one. Russia is only trying to protect itself from the expensionoist policies of the empire.
Oct 31, 2008 - 5:10 am 12. dan:O please – this isn’t “payback:” Russia is predatory by nature and has never not been. Why is this self-evident fact lost in the minds of so many analysts? To recap: the Soviet Empire was a Military-Counterintelligence State, its novel form of permanent revolution (pace Stalin), essentially a vampiric, undead version of Tsar autocracy. The KGB, which animated the corpse, continues to run Russia and every previous ’stan; that state intends to reclaim the remaining Soviet possessions as opportunity – whether fabricated or serendipitous – allows.
That is what is always happening in Russia, no matter the decade or century. It has nothing to do with US blundering, antagonism, or provocations; the US engages in these aggressive diplomatic efforts because it *knows* this about Russia’s character – and so do the countries with whom we partner. The Soviet reorganization was an opportune time to do this; it was only a matter of time before they returned to their usual habits.
The Venezuelan effort is a case in point. Anyone want to bet whether Russia and the KGB had anything to do with Chavez’s aggressively Socialist party’s victory, or have anything to do with how they maintain and increase their power there? Did they not discover Venezuelan support to FARC, who are Marxist? In fact, did not the Shining Path recently attack in Peru afters years of quiescence? Putin also recently renewed Russia’s special relationship with Cuba.
Whether the Marxism-Leninism is just aesthetic or operative is for the observer to decide, but Russia’s re-emergence will take place by re-animating its prior strategic appendages. Why not? The structures emplaced by the KGB to maintain their Soviet loyalty persist; even if they aren’t Leninists anymore the buildings and tactics and personalities are all there to use.
O by the way – I think history demonstrates that the relative misery of the Russian population is rarely or never a curb on the plans and ambitions of the Russian autocrat or junta. It just isn’t. The Soviets were immiserated for their entire history; prior to that, Russia was a vast Asiatic barbarity with a Christian Pharaoh. Today, Russia is still “17th century” outside the few large cities. And yet they have the KGB, the vast nuclear and bio-chemical weapons industries. They have the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. They supply Iran with nuclear energy and Venezuela nuclear energy technology – prizes too good to refuse for the natives, even though they know such presents also come with KGB subversion and ultimately Russian control.
Russia is not stupid – not at all. Russia is evil. Believe it.
Oct 31, 2008 - 6:39 am 13. foutsc:We need to stay out of the way. A dedicated core of socialists across Latin America hate the US and romanticize Russia. Well, it’s time they got a taste of what it’s like to be embraced by the bear. Russia selling their pathetic military junk to gullible caudillos does not threaten the US.
Latin Americans willfully forget all our acts of generosity while cataloging our every sin and carving them in stone never to be forgotten. It’s time we dropped all aid and assistance.
Oct 31, 2008 - 6:45 am 14. foutsc:Cedarford is a perfect example of the Avril Harriman school of foreign policy, where the world is carved up into red bits and blue bits. In his world, big powers get spheres of influence, or back yards, and they are free to roam there, chasing off all interlopers. So, for example, a Georgia or a Kyrgyzstan is not free to break from an abusive Marriage with Ivan. How condescending.
Also, Cedarford’s view of Russia is quite naive. Do you seriously think Russian cronyism, poverty and paranoia were caused by American triumphalism in the 1990’s? Read Tolstoy or Dostoevsky for crying out loud.
Finally, any help proffered by Russia was due to realpolitik and what they could gain from it. Nothing wrong with that, all nations do it, including the US.
You sound like an intelligent person, Cedarford. I suggest you broaden your reading a little. You will profit from it.
– Nietzsche is Dead
Oct 31, 2008 - 7:00 am 15. Marc Malone:cedarford – Your whole argument is based on the premise that Russia has a legitimate sphere of influence. They don’t. No one around them wants their influence.
Russia is dying, literally. Corruption and criminality is complete. The people are not breeding sufficiently to replace themselves. Atop that, disease and alcoholism is rampant. All the beautiful women are using their looks to get the heck out of the cesspool. Same with anyone with any skills. Moscow has to hire Ukrainians to do the work, because Russians no longer can.
People commonly think that it was all over when the USSR died, but there is still a vast decomposing corpse. It’ll be another generation until we see the last of that repugnant regime’s effects fade. By then, it’ll be too late for Russia. It’ll be a vast tract of lightly populated land. All industries will be manned by outsiders, and Russians will no longer be in charge. Russia is finished.
Nov 1, 2008 - 2:09 pm 16. cedarford:foutsc – Funny how we consider Mexico, Canada, and even Cuba our backyard – then – and have in the past and will in the future, consider Russian orchestrated “regime change” or stationing of its strategic military forces or large armies in our backyard as unacceptable.
We are far more cautious of offending China because it could “jeopardize” good relations. Thus we don’t have US special forces advising Tibetans and Muslim independence movements in China’s sphere. Nor are we meddling in any Taiwan breakaway movement because of our “one China” policy accepting spheres of interest, or attempting to shame China by way of official denunciations of its NORK patronage, waving China nuke bomb blueprints they gave to Pakistan at the UN, or sliming them publicly on their human rights record.
I am aware of Russia’s strange mix of great feats amidst continued backwardsness. Nations can nevertheless be formidable and to be reckoned with despite have in backwards regions like the US Appalachia & Rural South, Japan’s Hokkoido and Okinawa Prefectures, the Aussie Outback. Or whole “classes” of people excluded from the rise of past great and worthy nations or civilizations. We somehow can muster up proper respect for ancient Greece, Israel, feudal Japan, the Age of Enlightenment despite 90%+ of the masses living as bad or worse than the Russian masses.
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Marc Malone – Your whole argument is based on the premise that Russia has a legitimate sphere of influence. They don’t. No one around them wants their influence. The premise in diplomacy is that spheres of influence are natural, that they exist as a function of economic, military, cultural power of one nation exerting influence on neighbors and in spite of “no one around them wants their influence. (USA, English, Turk, Russian, Chinese, etc.) Realpolitik 101.
Marc – Russia is dying, literally. Corruption and criminality is complete. The people are not breeding sufficiently to replace themselves.
The old Neocon “dying Old Europe, Russia, Japan, China” meme.
In which the Neocons conveniently ignore the massive corruption of State and Fed Gov’t in the USA, and in touting our “birthrates and welcoming shores for plucky immigrants” ignores that the white American birthrate is 1.9, also below replacement level. And only positive due to less educated, fast-breeding minorities – before whites themselves become a minority around 2037-2040.
Marc – All industries will be manned by outsiders, and Russians will no longer be in charge. Russia is finished.
Nope. After the criminal gangs, plus jews and western corporatists had a pillaging spree under Yeltsin, today’s Russia is about reclaimation of Russia’s stolen wealth and a humbling of the Oligarchs and a reassertion of Russian control of its resources and industries. A reason why Putin’s and sucessor Medvedev’s approval ratings are the highest of any leader in a democracy (yes, Russia is still one, albeit with less free press than before)
Nov 2, 2008 - 10:06 am 17. vivo:Attention Secretary of State:
Get your intelligence people to gather the FACTS of these “red” countries and use your brains to make the right decisions. Several of the above comments have merit.
I hope Obama will manage this the way he managed his campaign.
Nov 3, 2008 - 3:59 am 18. Fausta’s Blog » Blog Archive » The day-before-the-presidential-election Carnival of Latin America and the Caribbean:[...] Forecast for Latin America: Cold (War) Winds from Russia [...]
Nov 3, 2008 - 6:43 am 19. colleen:For their comments here:
A+ to cedarford
F to Marc Malone
Nov 3, 2008 - 5:15 pm