German Race Tightens as Election Day Nears
The left is resorting to pacifism to boost poll numbers.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has seen her lead in opinion polls dwindle just days before Germany’s national elections on Sunday. Although the decline is not very great, it is enough to mean that the makeup of the next government, which up until one week ago had seemed to be a foregone conclusion, is now impossible to predict.
While almost everyone expects Merkel to lead the next government, the big question is: who will her coalition partner be? The answer to that question will determine how much power Merkel will actually have to lead Europe’s most important country at a time of economic and financial crisis and rising unemployment.
For the past four years, Merkel has led an uneasy coalition between her center-right Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and its main rival, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD). Merkel is hoping to win enough votes on Sunday to enable her to abandon the SPD and form a new center-right coalition with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP).
But polls published on September 23 show that public support for a CDU-FDP government has declined to between 46 percent and 48 percent, down from 50 percent at the beginning of September. Combined support for the CDU-FDP fell to 48 percent from 49 percent in the weekly Forsa poll for Stern magazine.
A separate poll published by the Handelsblatt business newspaper shows Merkel’s preferred coalition dropping to 46 percent. Analysts say Merkel needs at least 47 percent of the vote to be able to form her preferred coalition. As a result, if the SPD makes any more gains, the current grand coalition between the two biggest parties appears to be the most likely outcome.
Merkel’s main challenger for the top job, SPD leader and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, has focused his entire campaign on preventing the formation of a center-right government. According to the Stern poll, support for Steinmeier has increased in recent days by 2 points, to 26 percent, while support for Merkel has decreased by 2 points, to 35 percent.
What accounts for Steinmeier’s last minute surge in a campaign that has been mostly about economic policies? Some say he benefited from an unusually confident performance in a September 13 television debate with Merkel. But others say he is playing the pacifism card in order to win the hearts and minds of German voters.
Before he was appointed as foreign minister in 2005, Steinmeier was chief of staff to Gerhard Schroeder, the former SPD chancellor, from 1999 to 2005. In this role, Steinmeier was the architect of Schroeder’s successful 2002 re-election campaign, which famously exploited German anti-Americanism and passions over the crisis in Iraq.
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Soeren Kern is Senior Analyst for Transatlantic Relations at the Madrid-based Grupo de Estudios Estratégicos / Strategic Studies Group.
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10 Comments
1. Zazaz:Good analysis! Just let me add 2 points:
- Germany´s political spectrum is way more left-leaning to begin with. We have nationalized healthcare and a tax-and-spend governement. Here, Obama would be considered a centrist.
- Especially the SPD (social demokrats) in the last few years, due to growing pressure from the communist left party has moved a lot to the left, removing from power people like Schröder and Clement (his Minister for Econony) who, while being statists, had at least a realistic view of economy. If there is no CDU / FDP majority it is very probable that after a year of continuing the current coalition, the SPD will break it up and form a governement with the green party and the communist party.
With such a governement, you can forget about Germany as an military or political ally. The left hates the USA, hates Israel, hates free market. Taxes will go through the roof, as will unemployment.
Only good effect for the US: the qualified, hard working germans will look for a place to migrate.
Sep 25, 2009 - 1:08 am 2. vb:I saw that every German TV station in its text news cited a report about the increase in posttraumatic stress disorder among soldiers returning from Afghanistan. Suddenly the lefties are concerned about members of the military. What hypocrisy! And the news reports treat the UNSC resolution about working to get rid of all nuclear weapons as if UN resolutions have some significance. I am pretty sure that Obama’s push on this resolution helps reinforce the pacifist sympathies already prevalent in Germany, as does Steinmeier’s perceived influence on Obama’s Russian policies.
Sep 25, 2009 - 1:55 am 3. Ed Wallis:It sure didn’t help either that the FDP – the only other serious partner for CDU – along with the Greens preemptively rejected the idea of a 3-way coalition (”Ampelkoalition”). Stupid, stupid, stupid.
So, at this point in time, the neo-Communists are gaining support (sigh…again?!), and yet there is a lack of decisiveness to move forward from the Big, Fat, Old CDU-SPD coalition which will set itself up for becoming even more of a target for derision in the eyes of the gullibe public from the neo-Communists.
Sep 25, 2009 - 3:39 am 4. Paul -Indiana:It will be interesting to see if Germans nuckle under to the terrorist’s demands for their preferred outcome. Any bets?
Sep 25, 2009 - 5:08 am 5. Ed Wallis:I must disagree with #1:
Obama would be no centrist in Germany, but rather in the party die Linke : the former Communist Party of former East Germany. Gregor Gysi, like SOBama, also has a “smooooooth” way with words, and is no hothead like LaFontaine.
Sep 25, 2009 - 6:54 am 6. rvastar:The combined reproductive rate for native Western European women is 1.4 children per woman. For Muslim women in the same countries, it’s 3.5 children per woman.
Here’s the order of healthiest fertility rates for Western European countries:
1) France
Spain
2) Netherlands
3) Belgium
4) Switzerland
5) Austria
6) Germany
7) Italy
And here’s the order with the highest proportion of Muslims:
1) France
Spain
2) Netherlands
3) Belgium
4) Switzerland
5) Austria
6) Germany
7) Italy
Western Europe is dead. Germany is dead. So who cares?
Sep 25, 2009 - 8:13 am 7. Marie Claude:France : 2,2 64 millions inhabitants, 3,2 millions muslims in age of procreating, among them African muslims
95% of the 2008 birth rate was attribuated to french normal population,
Muslims Arabs that live in France from 3 or 2 generations don’t make much children than the average French, while still Africans immigrant have a high rate, due to their numerous wives for some parts, and that children making are their revenue famillial allocations.
Apart the African specifity,It’s only new immigrants that still have more children
for those that can read french, a funny article about red shoes in a mosquee :
“Une paire de talons aiguilles rouges a provoqué la colère des musulmans”
Sep 25, 2009 - 8:28 am 8. deguello:http://bit.ly/RXCAX
RVSTAR My sentiments exactly;Spain has imploded.Look at the clown they elected,A Mr. Bean lookalike,with Obama’s mindset.
Sep 25, 2009 - 10:57 am 9. WestWright:I’m not as worried about Germany as an military or political ally but I actually think that Germany will or has already allied with Putin and Germany will pull the EU into that alliance.
Sep 25, 2009 - 12:22 pm 10. Czar of Defenestration:I’m of the thinking that we are witnessing the new rise of the German National Socialism Party aka the Holy Roman Empire. The Germans and Russians will carve up Eastern Europe and the Balkins and eventually go to war with each other…..read revelations.
More spooky than likely, #9 WestWright.
Germany – like lots of Central and Western Europe – is dependent upon Russia’s natural gas and oil (with Gerhard Schröder being the wh*re go-between).
That’s nasty enough.
Then there’s Russia’s/USSR’s record of aggression on the continent.
If there’s any “carving” to do, I suspect Russia would not bother with such a small-fry player (tut mir leid, aber wahr…) like Germany.
Sep 25, 2009 - 3:12 pm