28 Comments

1. Mike:

Surely, you are kidding. Surely, you don’t really believe that this administration caused this mess since January, or that the republicans had no role. Surely, you cannot be that uninformed and misguided and be able to submit a piece of reading material to an actual publication.

Mar 20, 2009 - 1:17 am 2. Mike:

Surely, you are kidding. Surely, you don’t really believe that this administration caused this mess since January, or that the republicans had no role. Surely, you cannot be that uninformed and misguided and be able to submit a piece of reading material to an actual publication.

Mar 20, 2009 - 1:19 am 3. David Thomson:

“It should not and will not be forgotten that one U.S. political party and its three principal unprincipled leaders drove the vast majority of this.”

Perhaps the greatest failure of John McCain’s pathetic campaign was his unwillingness to inform the American voters of this fact. Most assuredly, he was too politically correct. McCain could not bring himself to criticize Democrats for forcing lending institutions to provide mortgages to minorities with poor credit histories. Even today few Republicans possess the courage to tell the truth. They are terrified of being unfairly charged with racism.

The economy is going to continue to suffer because Barack Obama is an economic illiterate. He hasn’t the slightest idea on how to truly provide leadership. Obama is a poorly read and shallow human being who is not even close to being ready for prime time. His appearance on the Jay Leno show was a complete embarrassment. He literally said that the country needs less professional investors. America would supposedly be better off if a good size number of them instead became teachers. I expect the stock market to drop over a hundred points later this morning.

Mar 20, 2009 - 1:53 am 4. W J A:

No matter if the economy tanks or starts to get better the Dem’s will use either scenario to their advantage. If the economy gets worse, the Three Stooges will need more time to fix it. If good times roll, then they’ll take credit for the recovery.

Mar 20, 2009 - 2:06 am 5. Earlg:

The only fundamental which has changed over the course of the past two weeks is the verbal assault and chants of ‘Death to America’ by Supreme Leader Obamenei and his Council of Dolt’s have been temporarily stemmed. Lacking a complete change of agenda and course by Supreme Leader Obamenei and his Council of Dolt’s the destruction will continue, unabated.

Mar 20, 2009 - 3:46 am 6. Craig:

“…in the name of “spread(ing) the wealth around.””

The wealth of our nation and the world is eroding so rapidly, you may have better luck at spreading butter.

Mar 20, 2009 - 3:52 am 7. gordo 12:

Citi, BofA, and GM were told by the “O” and staff to outright lie about their not needing extra cash.

No proof but logical.

The “O” goes from doom and gloom to “Hey it is spring and everything is coming up roses. Michelle is planting a garden, March madness etc etc.”

Cannot have the real truth come out.

Doh, AIG. Did not see that one coming, or did they?

Tell me, is the “O” going to tax tips for waitpersons 90%? These are considered bonuses.

As long as they keep spending and not producing things will not rebound for awhile.

Mar 20, 2009 - 4:46 am 8. Roger Godby:

I hope by the time 0bama and the DNC-dominated brothel is shuttered I’ll at least have a bit of change left in my accounts. My fear is that the GOP will stick with “compassionate conservatism” and turn my leftover change into nothing but hope.

Mar 20, 2009 - 5:43 am 9. Terry Gain:

Today’s deficits are tomorrow’s taxes. People with money have taken note of Obamateur’s grossly irresponsible spending. They will hold onto their money tightly until he is turfed in 2012. The Obamateur recession will worsen and continue throughout his presidency.

Mar 20, 2009 - 5:59 am 10. Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg:

A time to hope that the worst is over…

‘Hope’ is for fools, Tom. Anyone who thinks this is the bottom is deluding themselves.

Mar 20, 2009 - 6:39 am 11. garrett:

The second wave of morgtage defaults will peakin 2010 and the third in 2012 when the peak of 5yr and 7 year AMRs reverts to the prevailing interest level. Is anyone imagining that the interest level in 2010 will be lower than now? No? Yet better than 50% of AM-morgtage holders that are currently defaulting cannot pay current interest rates. Add in an almost inevitable Cap-and-Trade scheme (which failed in Europe, bigtime)and the race to raise fees of all sorts from city to state level, and you really don’t have a lot of disposble cash on the part of consumers to purchase. Look for large numbers of small business failures, retail merchants, small banks, small cities, and on and on. The bottom has not been reached, merely a local plateau.

Mar 20, 2009 - 8:30 am 12. Tom Blumer:

#1 and #2, surely you either can’t read or can’t comprehend what you read. You’ve done your ObamaTroll job. Now, so to speak, MoveOn.

#7, that is an interesting theory.

#10, I know better than to predict one way or the other. If I were forced to bet, though, I’d be with you.

Mar 20, 2009 - 10:56 am 13. Ian Thorpe:

It’s unlikely there will be any more major bank collapses but unempoloyment has a long way to rise. Possibly the worst of the Obama administration’s insane economic policies is the decision to “print money” as this could lead to imports becoming more expensive, the purchasing power of everyone’s wage being reduced and on into a spiral of deflation.

Better start hoping the Chinese are not ready to pull the plug yet.

Is that what he meant by The Audacity Of Hope?

Mar 20, 2009 - 11:56 am 14. fred:

I am one of those “professional investors” that Barack Obama disparaged, who is advised to go into teaching. I already have teaching experience: one semester in a Catholic high school, as an emergency fill-in when they lost a teaching brother (when I was a Jesuit seminarian), and one year as a grad assistant at Loyola of Chicago, when I was a philosophy student (again, when I was a Jesuit seminarian). I have numerous contacts in education, both in the public schools and in private schools. There is absolutely no way I would ever consider teaching in a public school. My degrees are in economics (BA), philosophy (MA), and business with a finance emphasis (MBA). I have no “education” courses in any of my academic training, and “education” courses are a prerequisite for certification to teach in a public school. I detest the NEA, and regard it as a front for socialist policies. Furthermore, there is no way I would tolerate the kind of classroom atmosphere that prevails in the public schools. To a lesser extent that “atmosphere” has even infected the private, even Catholic schools. I would demand that my students do something called *work.* I would demand that they stretch their attention spans and be able to attend to tasks, even handing them in on time. Also, I would chafe at the required textbooks and curriculum, especially the Marxist bent in history, government, civics, and “social studies.” I am completely unsuitable for the new classroom, and at age 54 I grew up during a time when teachers would not tolerate crap from the kids. While I completely do not approve of some of the things the sisters did to some students in school, I agree with things like suspensions and even kicking kids out of class. I would absolutely have zero tolerance for hoodlums and their influence. In other words, education is about mental discipline and becoming a civilized human being. None of this is de rigeur in the classroom today.

It would not be the large pay cut I would take. I consider teaching an honorable profession IF the reigning philosophy of education in this country was to be dramatically altered. Mostly, I would not do this work because of the working conditions. It is very, very stressful for most teachers now. I don’t need that. Some of these people dread every single day they get out of bed to go to work. I mostly look forward to my day, and the economic environment right now is quite challenging to those of us who do equities’ research.

About the economic cycle we are in. My take… first, it was the energy price run up that tipped things over the edge. The housing bubble began to burst late in 2006 out in California and the Far West, and then began spreading east. Energy prices sucked the life out of consumer spending, because there was less discretionary wealth. Keep that in mind when you ponder the effect that the cap and trade is going to have (aside from the fact that it’s all based on a scientific hypothesis that has been disproven). These idiots in charge seem to lack a brain (“If I only had a brain…”)and send all the wrong signals to the financial markets. Moreover, long term the root of the problem remains unfixed: the virtually non-existent underwriting standards at Fannie and Freddie. So, higher taxes all around, fiscal idiocy, and a lack of understanding of how businesses actually operate and make decisions about expanding and risk taking – all of this is weighing on investors’ deliberations.

By the time we get them all cleaned in 2013 it will take a long time to get rid of most of what they put in place.

Mar 20, 2009 - 12:20 pm 15. Geofizz:

If one looks at other indicators apart from those described here (e.g, commercial real estate, bank lending rates/LIBOR, Eastern Europe’s debt crisis…), there’s plenty to be concerned about and absolutely no reason to think that we are anywhere near bottom. For starters, this isn’t just another recession, where the government can hose crazy amounts of cash into the economy in the hopes to create new bubbles that will lift us our of our current predicament. Rather, we’re in a deflationary period where we’re crippled by too much debt.

Consider, the total US debt is 3.5 times our GDP!! We just reached a new national debt level of $11 trillion. Until this debt is reduced, there is NO recovery in site. And currently the government is doing anything BUT reducing debt. Add to that, all this new debt our government is creating is backed by US TAXPAYERS. The more the government does to “fix” this financial problem, the worse they are making things. As our economy gets worse, it’s going to come down squarely and exclusively on We the Taxpaying Americans, and we can thank our government for this.

Mar 20, 2009 - 2:28 pm 16. Sonny:

Reliable historical data indicates the economy will go down another 20% before it begins a long, tideous climb back up.

When it does, it will surpass its previoua highs.

Thus, if you are young, you may live long enough to enjoy gains on your long-term investments; notwithstanding the current administration to borrow beyond our means to pay it back.

Mar 20, 2009 - 3:10 pm 17. Avitar:

The Democrats caused this mess since taking over Government in the election of 2006. Just as the boom of the 1990’s were the result of the Republicans taking over the Government in the election of 1994. George Bush tried to hold back the Pelosi depression but economically the Speaker of the House is a much more powerful position than the President.

We thought that Pelosi and Reid were just trying to wreck the economy to make George Bush and the Republicans look bad but since January they have not stopped. They actually may believe their own press releases.

It does make it easier for Conservatives to bring the economy back fast. The Reagan tax cut showed that 80% of every dollar of tax cut for people who earned over $200,000 (That would be $500,000 today) was invested back into the economy. The Democrats are targetting that very investment and the jobs that come from that investment for distruction. The one year Laffer curve seems to center around 28% to 33% depending on the type of taxes and the cost of all regulation must be included as a tax. Higher multi-year growth is available for lower tax rates.

The liberal tax plan will lower revinues in future years.

Mar 20, 2009 - 3:14 pm 18. Geofizz:

A Must-Read about the economic crisis and AIG. Get the FULL PICTURE and learn some finance terms! From the Rolling Stone, written so it’s easily understandable:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/26793903/the_big_takeover/print

Mar 20, 2009 - 3:26 pm 19. TurfMonster:

There’s been a movement to gather petitions to recall Max Baucus and Jon Tester from the US Senate here in Montana. Is this happening to the Democratic Senators from your states, if you have any?

I’d like to know.

Mar 20, 2009 - 6:42 pm 20. Marc Malone:

#18 geofizz – Great link. Great read. A must read. Now I’m depressed again. (sigh)

Mar 21, 2009 - 12:31 am 21. whyyeseyec:

Watch out America. Chelsea Clinton will be 30 by the midterm elections next year. That means she`ll be eligible for a senate seat.

We will never be free of the Clintons……

Mar 21, 2009 - 11:49 am 22. Mike:

Fred,

Couldn’t have said it better, the only thing I would add is the punishing tax structure in this country, punishes success and reward lazy and failure!

We need a FLAT tax, NO deductions none, nodda! Those below a certain income level would pay no taxes!

Mar 21, 2009 - 2:22 pm 23. typos_R_us:

Depressions are like avalanches. They start slow and pick up speed and power as they slide down hill.
The Usurpers economic models (from OMB,CBP, etc.) are all based on the 82-83 downturn. That means the model is flawed, since it is impossible for it to be any worse then that recession.
Use the ‘29 depression and you get a whole ‘nother ball game. Since the Cater response to that crisis was to piss his pants and whine a lot, there is no reason to use it as a basis for any model of the current crisis. The Usurper is using the FDR response to the crsh of ‘29, so it is more reasonable to assume his actions will generate the same results, more of less. The differences between the current economic infrastructure and that of the 1930’s are more a matter of degree then substance.
Like FDR’s work programs, the Usurpers work programs will slow the avalanche, but not change the direction or the terminal velocity.
Tax funded work projects DO NOT create permanent jobs. Temporary jobs don’t create wealth and when they end, they leave workers unemployed and no capital to create real jobs with. Anybody else remember this?

http://www.miseryindex.us/
I lived thru it. Survived might be a better word then lived. Any way, after all the work projects are done, things will get really bad since unemployment will shoot back up to 15%+ and all that money the feds have printed to pay the ‘workers’ (Soviet style, we pretend to work and they pretend to pay us) on the make-work projects will kick up inflation. We could be looking at a misery index over 20 (record was 20.76 in 1980), maybe even nearly 30.
My point is that we are just getting started on the worst economic crisis in American history. Things MIGHT bottom out about 2020 or so, if the FDR model holds true and the Usurper starts a war, like FDR did. After a certain point, changing Congress and the administration won’t make any difference.
About like a 4 year old standing in front of the avalanche and ordering it to stop.
If the Usurper declares a payroll tax holiday this summer and people take that money and spend it, the increase in money moving around should generate enough wealth to redirect the avalanche. Avalanches don’t go uphill so good. Direct it toward another hill and it will stop. Wait till next year and it will be too late. Like replacing that 4 year old with a 40 year old. The avalanche don’t care.

Mar 22, 2009 - 5:23 am 24. rjo:

In January I was looking to buy some stocks. I thought with the change in administration and the Hope & Change being an optimistic message, the markets would turn around. I held on for a few days for a gut check, then for a few more and now I’m not going to get take any positions until the index is near 10,000. Glad I held. Since the inauguration the administration has been all doom and gloom. Treasury is poorly staffed indicating that the crisis in the financial system is not a priority of the Obama Administration. Spending has been out of control which is not sending a good signal to the markets – inflation is certainly on the way and borrowing trillions in a credit crisis smacks of irresponsibility. Indications that the administration is willing to meddle in private business to has investors a bit squeamish.

Since 1/20 any downturns are owned by President Obama.

Mar 23, 2009 - 10:40 am 25. SteveB/Colorado:

This thread sounds mostly like a bunch of sore losers left over from last November. Where were you guys during 2000-2006 when Bush didn’t veto a single spending bill from the Republican congress (disclosure: I’m a traditional conservation Republican)? I agreed with his tax cuts. But where were the corresponding cuts in spending?? Instead of spending cuts, we got an unnecessary war in Iraq with no bid contracts; a Medicare prescription drug benefit with a ban on HCFA trying to get competitive bids for drugs. We also got the infamous No Child Left Behind and we turned over vast tracts of land in the West and off-shore to the energy companies so they could enhance their bottom lines instead of drilling. Why was it that over two thirds of awarded leases were idle at a time of $147 for a barrel of oil?

I’m no fan of Pelosi pork in spending bills. But let’s be honest here. There is ample blame to go around for the country getting into the fix it’s in.

Mar 23, 2009 - 4:17 pm 26. SteveB/Colorado:

edit: that should be “conservative Republican…).

One other thought. US Navy just launched a brand new aircraft carrier in the Nimitz class designed to fight the Soviet Navy on the high seas. But didn’t the Soviet Union implode in 1991? Why are we spending this kind of money on the military, instead of making sure troops going into combat have body armor and protected vehicles.

Mar 23, 2009 - 4:20 pm 27. fred:

Mike @22,

I like the idea of the flat tax. If other countries are using it and it works, why can’t it work here?

Mar 23, 2009 - 7:37 pm 28. Kevin Oyloe:

Way to go David Thomson #3. you have it peged…

Apr 4, 2009 - 10:38 pm