Hezbollah Is Humbled, But Not Defeated
Make no mistake — Lebanon's future is still an open question.
Hezbollah and its allies in the March 8 coalition failed to win a majority of seats in the 2009 Lebanese parliamentary elections, losing to the incumbent March 14 coalition. The elections give the March 14 coalition an invigorated mandate, and are a vote of confidence in March 14’s vision for Lebanon’s future regional and international relations.
However, the March 8 coalition’s strong electoral showing (it controls 45% of parliamentary seats — 57 seats out of a total of 128), the nature of Lebanon’s sectarian political system, and Hezbollah’s weapons and previous willingness to violently undermine the government mean that Hezbollah will most likely be included in a national unity government. The debate over the future governance of Lebanon is far from over.
March 14’s victory puts to rest myths and theories propagated in the March 8 and Syrian press in the years after 2005 parliamentary elections. There is now no doubt that March 14 enjoys nationwide support across sectarian, regional, and class boundaries. Voters do not appear to believe that the 2005-2008 March 14 government was too extreme, too pro-Western, too pro-Sunni/Saudi, or pro-Israel. It also indicates that voters reject a return of Syrian influence in Lebanon and a rejection of closer relations with Iran.
In a televised speech on Monday, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah conceded the March 8 coalition’s defeat, but said that Hezbollah would not tolerate any discussion of disarming it and bringing the Iranian backed party under the rule of the Lebanese government. The soon to be formed March 14 government will likely have to concede Hezbollah’s “right” to “defend” the country against Israel, thus placing the Lebanese government in a precarious position in the event of a war with Israel.
Given that Shia voters overwhelmingly support Hezbollah and Amal (another Shia political party allied with Hezbollah) the parties will likely enter into the new government and be offered cabinet ministries so as not to alienate and indirectly disenfranchise a community that makes up 1/3 of the Lebanese population.
The Lebanese parliamentary system allots seats based on religion, with half of the 128 parliamentary seats allocated to Christians, and the other half divided between Sunni, Shia, Druze, and others. The electoral districts and the sectarian composition of the districts are gerrymandered prior to each election in an electoral law enacted by the outgoing parliament. The 2009 parliamentary districts significantly differ from the 2005 districts, with the creation of smaller, predominantly Christian districts.
The 2009 electoral law was formulated at the Doha Accords, which occurred after Hezbollah and its allies violently stormed Beirut in May 2008. March 8 Christian leader Michel Aoun has claimed that he authored the Doha electoral law, gerrymandering it to his advantage, and boasted that he would win the largest parliamentary bloc in Lebanese history. Aoun failed in his quest, with March 14 winning in many regions where Aoun was believed to have the advantage.
The election was most vigorously contested in Christian regions. Shia voters overwhelmingly support March 8 factions Hezbollah and Amal. A majority of Sunni voters support the Future Movement, the largest party in the March 14 coalition, while the Druze overwhelmingly support the March 14 coalition partnered Progressive Socialist Party.
Christians, however, split their support between various national, regional, and local political parties and personalities.
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11 Comments
1. sheesh:Bush speaks . . . Hamas gets elected.
Obama speaks . . . Hezbollah gets defeated.
Disaster I tell you!
“I am not a citizen of the world.” – Newt Gingrich
“I come to you as a citizen of the United States, and of the world.”
– Ronald Reagan
Yeah, but, but, but . . . MUSTARD!
Jun 10, 2009 - 7:55 am 2. Bilgeman:Mr. Chuman:
“March 14’s victory puts to rest myths and theories propagated in the March 8 and Syrian press in the years after 2005 parliamentary elections”
Maybe Hizbollah needs a “bigger tent” and to stop driving away “HINO”s
Jun 10, 2009 - 9:13 am 3. Trouble:Bush speaks . . . Hamas gets elected.
Obama speaks . . . Hezbollah gets defeated.
Thus proving that… enough bullsh!t really can fertilize a desert.
Jun 10, 2009 - 12:46 pm 4. john from cinncinatti:Obama throws hezbollah under the bus? is there no end to who is under there. i guess the fight will commence because the Israelis are under the bus too.
Jun 10, 2009 - 4:02 pm 5. vivo:“Ron Rosenbaum contends that President Obama’s speech to the Muslim world from Cairo might have been an attempt to influence the Lebanese elections.”
Yes, it worked. Isn’t thta nice?
Jun 10, 2009 - 4:12 pm 6. EdGi:Ron, Hez will be as it is because it has Iranian support and Syrian deals. BHO did nothing to help M-14, and the majority of the Lebanese deserve credit for actually standing up for hope/change in the face of Hez/syrian/Iranian violence.
Jun 10, 2009 - 8:55 pm 7. Andy:“Sheesh” and “vivo” are undoubtedly willing to give credit to Bush for Hezbollah’s loss in the 2005 elections.
Jun 11, 2009 - 1:23 am 8. Andy:“Vivo,” perhaps you can explain something:
The election results were not particularly different from the previous ones, except among Christians, which moved slightly away from Aoun (allied with Hezbollah).
Is it your contention that Obama’s speech to the *Muslim* world is what influenced Lebanon’s *Christians*? Because otherwise, given that there was almost no change in the Muslim vote, I’m not quite sure how you can claim that Obama’s speech worked, nice as that may be to believe.
Jun 11, 2009 - 1:32 am 9. tedders:” “Sheesh” and “vivo” are undoubtedly willing to give credit to Bush for Hezbollah’s loss in the 2005 elections. ”
Their “logic” only “works” when it benefits their ideological beliefs, never across the board the way logic is in realty. Good luck getting them to admit Bush was a good President and did things right. It doesn’t fit their flawed weltanschauung.
Jun 11, 2009 - 8:40 pm 10. sheesh:You’re right, good luck getting me to think Bush was a good president. he was the worst president in my lifetime and perhaps of all time. As for geopolitical influence, you better start getting your excuses ready for why Obama had no impact on the Iranian elections.
Jun 12, 2009 - 8:01 am 11. Brian:The bus is getting kinda full with so many going under it!LMAO!
Jun 14, 2009 - 12:51 pm