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Hillary Who? The Real Campaign Has Already Begun
Obama is turning his attention to the battle with John McCain, with visits to old-style swing states, as Team McCain strategizes what it sees as a difficult but winnable race against the Illinois senator.
This week in presidential politics will see Barack Obama further consolidating his hold on the Democratic Party, John McCain pushing for daylight between himself and President Bush, and Obama and McCain stepping up their increasingly likely general election duel.
Unless a meteor hits Barack Obama, he’s the Democratic presidential nominee and a slight favorite against the only Republican who could win this year, John McCain.
In last week’s Monday morning column, I wrote that Obama was already rebounding from the ill effects of Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s media tour the week before and would have a pretty good week. Actually, Obama did better than I thought, crushing Hillary Clinton by a more-than-expected 15 points in North Carolina, the last big primary, and losing by an eyelash in Indiana, where Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos probably gave Hillary her slight edge.
Since then, Obama took the lead among the declared superdelegates, the last great Clinton hope, and Hillary turned out, according to sources, to be about $25 million in debt. Obama took a 10-point lead over Clinton nationally in the Rasmussen tracking poll and, more important, saw his favorable rating slightly surpass that of John McCain for the first time since March 10th, with Hillary’s popularity third among the three candidates. Obama is showing a lot of resilience in the midst of weeks of frenetic media coverage of Bittergate and the two outbreaks of the Wright Stuff. He seems to have an almost Reagan-like teflon. Like Ronald Reagan, Obama survives controversies which his angry partisan opponents predict will destroy him.
Clinton will nonetheless run through the final primaries on June 3rd. By that point, given the pace at which superdelegate endorsements are coming for Obama, he may have enough delegates to clinch the nomination. Obama will certainly win the majority of earned delegates -those won in the primaries and caucuses- on May 20th in Oregon. But for the unusual institution of the superdelegates -where Hillary started with a big edge but which are now breaking inexorably for Obama- that would be it for Obama right there.
Hillary will win big tomorrow in West Virginia, a state in which her husband the former president is very popular. West Virginia is nearly all-white, with the lowest median family income and lowest proportion of college graduates of any state in the country.
A few late primary wins will add to Hillary’s sense of pride, as well as her leverage as she and Bill try to marshal their remaining political capital into a continuing role in the party over which they’ve held sway for the past 16 years. They also hope against hope for last-minute deliverance. But I’m told by Clinton associates that there is also a certain relief that some of their big problems -where the massive contributions for the Clinton Library are coming from, how Bill made his post-presidential fortune, Hillary’s past work for the Black Panthers, etc.- aren’t likely to be chewed on for months in the media.
Nevertheless, the power curve moves on. While Hillary struggled for meetings with congressional superdelegates, Obama was mobbed as a rock star when he sauntered onto the floor of the House of Representatives. And Rasmussen, the only daily national tracking poll, run by Republican and ESPN co-founder Scott Rasmussen is dropping Clinton from its polling, devoting its resources to McCain vs. Obama.
The denouement for the Clintons will be interesting. But the race for the White House continues in a much more fascinating direction. The deal was a breathless 24/7 run from Christmas through February 5th’s Super-Duper Tuesday. At which point, I expected John McCain and Barack Obama to emerge as the nominees. McCain won through on time, though it took a little while for the Republicans to acknowledge their only candidate who could win, even after he knocked Mitt Romney out of the race in the California primary.
But Obama has taken longer. After winning Iowa, as forecast here, he lost New Hampshire. Whoops, not as forecast. Thanks to what will be seen as former President Bill Clinton’s last great strategems/moves in electoral politics. The race has dragged on since, and in a sense, drags on still. But only in a sense. Obama will continue campaigning in primary states but will increasingly turn his attention to the battle with John McCain, visiting old-style swing states such as Ohio and Florida and Pennsylvania and new-style swing states in the West, the Upper Midwest, and the Chesapeake region.
Meanwhile, Team McCain, which has been mostly ignoring Hillary for months in favor of attacks on Obama, is planning for what it sees as a difficult but winnable race against the freshman Illinois senator.
In my talks with McCain advisors, they are very well aware that this is a rough year for Republicans, with defeats having come already in special congressional elections. President Bush has a near record low job approval rating. Some 80 percent of the voters think America is moving in the wrong direction.
The Republican brand is battered. The Democratic brand is significantly more popular. And independents are on the rise.
In this environment, a strategy focused principally on mobilizing the base, as in the 2000 and 2004 elections, will fail. Even if Rev. Wright is conveniently ranting his infamous greatest hits 24/7 on all media outlets and all the other Obama boogie men -Bill Ayers, Tony Rezko, Rashid Khalidi- become household names. That doesn’t mean these associations won’t be issues. It does mean they won’t be as determinative as many have imagined.
McCain has to hold on to a declining base and at the same time appeal to moderates and independents.
I caught up with McCain senior advisor Steve Schmidt for a video interview in the Sierra Nevada foothills. I’ll get more into that when the video of Schmidt -who was also director of the Bush/Cheney war room, counselor to the Vice President Cheney, and campaign manager for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger- runs here at Pajamas Media.
For now, get used to McCain pushing the climate change issue as a key differentiator with Bush, and means of appealing to moderates in both parties and independent voters. In fact, McCain is giving a big speech today in Oregon about the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions and promote alternative energy, including nuclear as well as the usual renewable portfolio. There will be a lot more of this, along with more reminders that it was only when Bush finally adopted McCain’s surge strategy that the mess in Iraq showed some real improvement.
Will it be enough for McCain to avoid having the profoundly unpopular Bush hung like a millstone around his neck?
Obama will be painted as inexperienced, which he obviously is, and hence very risky. A big taxer who would stifle the economy as it’s struggling, an unsteady hand at the tiller in time of war with Islamic jihadists.
Team McCain wants joint town hall/debate appearances with Obama. Which the Democratic candidate seems amenable to.
That would be a big plus for McCain, who is likely to be heavily outspent by Obama. Team Obama is now prepping a TV ad campaign to define McCain as more of the same. Having McCain on stage with Obama in a freewheeling situation -and McCain, who pales in comparison to Obama as a platform speaker, is a past master at the town hall format- could defuse the coming onslaught of negative advertising imagery against him.
But it’s risky for McCain, too, for Obama may seem less threatening in that format, as well. And the physical contrast between them -Obama is taller, and a quarter-century younger- could be stark.
On the other hand, maybe it will stimulate a serious discussion. Both men, who have fascinating personal stories and are the best candidates their parties had to offer this year, say they want to get politics past the hyperpartisan meanness which turns off so many voters in the center. This could be their chance.
Bill Bradley is a Pajamas Media correspondent. His PajamasXpress blog is New West Notes.
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34 Comments
1. Hillary Clinton Updates » Blog Archive » Hillary Who? The Real Campaign Has Already Begun:[...] Read the rest of this great post here [...]
May 12, 2008 - 4:27 am 2. New West Notes » Monday Morning Quarterback, And More With Forum:[...] You can see the full Monday Morning Quarterback on PJ Media. [...]
May 12, 2008 - 6:59 am 3. Debbie:If these 2 are the “best” their parties could offer, I would certainly hate to see their worst.
Neither get my vote, and I will let me dark side out to play when BO goes down in flames.
May 12, 2008 - 7:14 am 4. jo:they must think 100 times to vote for the right candidate
May 12, 2008 - 7:40 am 5. HappyinAZ:Good summary! I don’t have to think 100 times on whom to vote for. Obama is so far left that even life long Democrats are having a problem with him. I certainly hope and Hillary is right and obama proves to be un-electible.
May 12, 2008 - 8:20 am 6. davetard:What a load of steamy BS. Within the past 48 hours McCain has called Obama the choice of Hamas and Obama has said that McCain has “lost his bearings”. Pretty hard insults with loud and ugly overtones of racial/religious bigotry by McCain and age related bigotry by Obama. And they haven’t even gotten started. Good thing we got rid of that big mean naughty lady who was playing dirty and ruining politics for everyone with her underhanded strategies. Oh wait, but she isn’t gone yet and you are a misogynist a-hole with double standards for men and women.
May 12, 2008 - 8:46 am 7. Utah SEO:I think Hillary should just bow down and leave the race… obama has more popular vote and super delegates now…
May 12, 2008 - 8:52 am 8. Bill Bradley:I appreciate the tard part …
May 12, 2008 - 9:06 am 9. Bill Bradley:Actually, Obama’s and Clinton’s positions on the issues are very close.
I’m guessing you weren’t going to vote for Hillary, either.
She doesn’t really believe Obama is unelectable. It’s just something she’s been saying as she tried to grasp something she mistakenly thought she already owned.
>HappyinAZ:
Good summary! I don’t have to think 100 times on whom to vote for. Obama is so far left that even life long Democrats are having a problem with him. I certainly hope and Hillary is right and obama proves to be un-electible.
May 12, 2008 - 9:08 am 10. TRICIA:May 12, 2008 – 8:20 am
Well now we know Hillary and Bill Clinton has proven Rev. Wright RIGHT about Racism still exist in America.
It took Hillary Clinton, the woman who grew up as a confirmed Republican to call on the RACIST IN West Virginia and Kentucky to try and win the nomination.
Thank God the strong KKK States that LYNCHED, CASTRATED, RAPED, MAIMED BLACK PEOPLE are the ones voting for Hillary and Bill, the so called People who did not inject Race in this Contest.
Hillary and Bill are trying to tell the Rest of America, “YOU REALLY DO NOT WANT TO VOTE FOR A BLACK MAN, VOTE FORE ME I AM THE WHITE WOMAN.
JUST THINK I DEFENDED THEM AGAINST THE VAST WHITE WING AND NOW SHE IS USING THEIR TACTICS.
I defended her against the charge of KILLING VINCE FOSTER. And now she is trying to incite the kkk to harm OBAMA, just so she can get elected.
She would not get elected even then, EDWARDS just suspended his campaign and he would get the Votes not Hillary.
The Republicans were so right about Bill and Hillary they will say and do anything to get elected ANYTHING.
May 12, 2008 - 9:31 am 11. Hold_That_Tiger:“Obama is so far left that even life long Democrats are having a problem with him.”
Far “Left” eh? could you define what that means? If it means that Obama’s concerns lie firmly with the middle-class, and blue collar workers, and those entrapped by grinding poverty whose incomes have flat-lined during the Bush years instead of the wealthy whose income has grown by a healthy 9%, then yes, Obama is “far Left.” If you are speaking of getting us out of this very expensive entanglement with Iraq, and using the billions saved in doing so, to help average Americans get back on their feet by investing in a sensible Healthcare Program that invites all Americans to participate in, then yes, Obama is “far Left.” If you are speaking of the Obama who wants to give average Americans a $1,000 tax credit toward their payroll taxes, then yes, he is a “Lefty,” or maybe you are referring a return to the PAYGO system of spending that allowed Clinton to balance the budget by 1999 (no unfunded programs, and no more Bush era “borrow and spend) that all the Democrats are committed to, then yes, think “Left.” Or possibly you are thinking of Obama’s interest in getting Americans off of the foreign Oil teat by exploring other renewable energy options such as Nuclear energy…then he is Guilty as charged. Or is it the pro-small business Obama who wants to make business loans, and tax credits more easily available to small business owners that tilts him left? Could it be the tax incentives that Obama proposes offering to Companies that keep Jobs in the USA? Or is the fact that Obama would rather make real changes to our broken educational system instead of passing meaningless unfunded mandates such as “no child left behind.” Yep, that Obama…practically a communist (or maybe he is a Patriotic Pragmatist?), LOL.
May 12, 2008 - 9:33 am 12. Martha Davidson:You won’t hear anything more about Rev Wright, when the Hagee/Parsley adss hit the media waves! Talk about LUNACY, and McCain publicly introduced Parsley as his “spiritual giude”.
Thia is why McCain wants to stay in Iraq:
In a chapter titled “Islam: The Deception of Allah,” Parsley warns there is a “war between Islam and Christian civilization.” He continues:
I cannot tell you how important it is that we understand the true nature of Islam, that we see it for what it really is. In fact, I will tell you this: I do not believe our country can truly fulfill its divine purpose until we understand our historical conflict with Islam. I know that this statement sounds extreme, but I do not shrink from its implications. The fact is that America was founded, in part, with the intention of seeing this false religion destroyed, and I believe September 11, 2001, was a generational call to arms that we can no longer ignore.
May 12, 2008 - 9:48 am 13. Candide:Both men … have fascinating personal stories…
The difference is, McCain is eager to tell his true story and Obama is eager not to.
May 12, 2008 - 10:01 am 14. Hold_That_Tiger:“The difference is, McCain is eager to tell his true story and Obama is eager not to.”
Right, when Obama has written 2 books on the subject of his Life…LOL. Further, we live in a 24/7 information society in which it is IMPOSSIBLE to “hide” just about anything. We have already been exposed to “NOT the Candidate Wright”, and “JUST an Aquaintence Ayers.” I’m sure that Obama’s enemies are now checking his kindergarten records for “dubious” contacts he made as a 5 year old.
Meanwhile not much is made of Clinton’s defense of Black Panthers as a young Lawyer, or her husband’s cynical pardon of the criminal Mark Rich, or the 2 members of the Weathermen that he pardoned (If Mrs Clinton persists on claiming the successes of the Bill Clinton Presidency as her own, she also must be dinged for the questionable stuff too.) Not to mention her fund raiser that has been prosecuted (was it John Woo, or Hu?)
Clinton is in bed with quite a few Lobbyists as well, but few have looked into her questionable associations so eager are Obama’s enemies (of which I consider the envious Hillary Clinton herself) to cut the audacious new kid to Washington Politics down a peg or two.
McCain has his own albatrosses; expect to see his pal Chuck Keating exhumed, and the millions of dollars that the American Tax payers had to pay to clean up the mess left by the Keating 5 to be discussed, NOT to mention McSame’s cozy relationships with Lobbyists and Big Land developer Donors for whom McCain has used his influence to push through lucrative deals…again at the expense of the Tax Payer. And, I’m sure that some 527’s will do it, and I am NOT an advocate of this type of smear campaign, we will see some try to “swiftboat” McCain, and they will bring up his sad history with his first wife and his affair with the much younger Cindy while still married.
So smear away on Obama, his advocates are not without an innuendo arsenal of their own…if you people want to “go there” so be it, just realize that those prepared to sling mud should bring a towel.
In short, people who live in glass houses shouldn’t through stones.
May 12, 2008 - 10:34 am 15. mark:Hillary, who since 2/19 has only fallen behind 4 pledged delegates.
May 12, 2008 - 11:06 am 16. Reed:That’s Hillary who.
Bad News: John McCain elected President of the United States in 2008.
Really Bad News: Barack Obama elected President of the United States in 2008.
Really, Really Bad News: Hillary Clinton elected ANYTHING, ANYWHERE, ANY TIME.
May 12, 2008 - 11:11 am 17. Bill Bradley:Don’t be non-serious.
>mark:
Hillary, who since 2/19 has only fallen behind 4 pledged delegates.
That’s Hillary who.
May 12, 2008 – 11:06 am
May 12, 2008 - 12:05 pm 18. Omar, the cuban:Barack is the only one of the candidates that does not show arrogance in his vision of the world. If USA wants that the world respect it, it must begin respecting the others.
May 12, 2008 - 12:55 pm 19. Bill Bradley:USA cannot continue being the policemen of the world, attacking and applying cruel sanctions to the countries. The peoples are the victims of these wars and of these sanctions.
What would think the american people if he was deprived of food, medicines…, only because we don’t agree with his government? We don’t have this genocidal mentality and coward, we are humanist and ethical.
The ignorance about what really the peoples of the world think has been a constant in the successive north american governments. The arrogance must be expelled definitively of the White House, and is Obama who could achieve this great change.
That’s a pretty good lefty parody, there …
May 12, 2008 - 3:29 pm 20. Bill Bradley:Both men are eager to tell their versions of their stories.
Naturally.
Both have very powerful favorable narratives going with the media.
>Candide:
Both men … have fascinating personal stories…
The difference is, McCain is eager to tell his true story and Obama is eager not to.
May 12, 2008 – 10:01 am
May 12, 2008 - 3:31 pm 21. barbara:I am tired of hearing people citrizing the candidates that are running for President of the U.s.
May 12, 2008 - 8:39 pm 22. Anonymous:I have been a true republican for 57 years. After reading about the candidates who where running for President for presidents I had gut feeling that Obama would become our next president. I have been a republican for 57 years and after reading about all the candidates I became a democrat.
frig you bill
May 13, 2008 - 11:37 am 23. LibsNoMore911:freedomsenemies.com states Obama was born, raised, & schooled Muslim, reading the Quran in Arabic at an Indonesian school, & didn’t convert to Christianity until the 1980s, although he & his campaign steadfastly deny he’s ever been a Muslim. Either freedomsenemies.com or Obama is shoveling you a steaming pile.
May 13, 2008 - 12:33 pm 24. Justin:@ Omar, the cuban:
That would be touching, Omar, if it were not for the fact that Obama has no sane strategy for stopping nuclear weapons from getting into the hands of countries like Iran. Respecting the world? There won’t be a world left to respect if we go with Obama.
May 13, 2008 - 3:36 pm 25. Cuba126:I dont understand why people keep forgetting 2 states, Florida (of which Im a resident) and Michigan ! Because of Party Politics, OUR votes, the ones that are supposed to matter, the voice of the people, are being ignored. I would like to point out to everyone that keeps spewing out the delegate count of Obama, to remember that Florida and Michigan combined have 378 delegates between them, and with the current delegate margin of only about 160, there is no telling where Clinton would be in the count seeing as she WON BOTH STATES ! So the party really needs to look at whom is TRULY the most electable. Especially since Clinton keeps winning the states that Dems generally lose. And the worst possible outcome would be another Republican in office.
May 13, 2008 - 4:28 pm 26. Bill Bradley:Well, um, not really.
Those states broke the obvious party rules which the Clinton agents backed. In fact, Hillary’s chairman, Terry McAuliffe, told Michigan that it would get ZERO delegates when it tried the same thing during his chairmanship.
But I’m wasting my time typing this, since these objections are non-serious.
May 13, 2008 - 6:59 pm 27. Bill Bradley:There is no factual support for this statement.
In my view, Obams is fatefully inexperienced. Which is why I may vote again for McCain.
Incidentally, I was a member of Veterans for McCain in 2000.
But this is, as I like to put it with my hyperpartisan friends from the far right, non-serious …
>LibsNoMore911:
freedomsenemies.com states Obama was born, raised, & schooled Muslim, reading the Quran in Arabic at an Indonesian school, & didn’t convert to Christianity until the 1980s, although he & his campaign steadfastly deny he’s ever been a Muslim. Either freedomsenemies.com or Obama is shoveling you a steaming pile.
May 13, 2008 - 7:00 pm 28. Bill Bradley:May 13, 2008 – 12:33 pm
Very nicely put, sweetie …
>Anonymous:
frig you bill
May 13, 2008 - 7:01 pm 29. Bill Bradley:May 13, 2008 – 11:37 am
This is a VERY serious statement on your part, to be sure …
>barbara:
I am tired of hearing people citrizing the candidates that are running for President of the U.s.
May 13, 2008 - 7:02 pm 30. Kiseta50:I have been a true republican for 57 years. After reading about the candidates who where running for President for presidents I had gut feeling that Obama would become our next president. I have been a republican for 57 years and after reading about all the candidates I became a democrat.
May 12, 2008 – 8:39 pm
I have waited for my citizenship in USA for 30 years. When I took my pledge to this country, I was happy to wote for Bush, both time. He is a disapointment to me on lots of issues. This time I will be sitting it out, unless somebody elese will run instead of McKain. Can that be possible or we are to pick a half-republican. I watched the news, even in Liberal Serbia the conservatives won.
May 15, 2008 - 12:37 pm 31. SystemsThinker:If people are so fed up with only having these two candidates to choose from, then push the media to ask them about their support for measures like Instant Runoff Voting (which both of them have endorsed before) and opening up the presidential debates.
May 15, 2008 - 4:48 pm 32. Bill Bradley:Instant Runoff Voting, endorsed by the, um, Green Party …
May 15, 2008 - 11:47 pm 33. Bill Bradley:Liberal Serbia. I’m not sure where that is.
>Kiseta50:
I have waited for my citizenship in USA for 30 years. When I took my pledge to this country, I was happy to wote for Bush, both time. He is a disapointment to me on lots of issues. This time I will be sitting it out, unless somebody elese will run instead of McKain. Can that be possible or we are to pick a half-republican. I watched the news, even in Liberal Serbia the conservatives won.
May 15, 2008 - 11:47 pm 34. Kiseta50:May 15, 2008 – 12:37 pm
Serbia is the old Yugoslavia left over, you know in South Europa, where the Socialist Democrats are conservatives
May 16, 2008 - 12:54 am