208 Comments

1. Dale:

Not big enough.

Sep 14, 2009 - 8:24 am 2. paul_unalaska:

One of the speakers at the event said ~ 1:30 – 1:45 p.m. that 1.5 million people had been counted via ABC. That’s from ABC of all affiliates.

There were more people still streaming in after that time.

More than 2 million, I don’t know. Union Station, Metro trains were as crowded as I’ve ever experienced. More than any work day into the city I’ve experienced.

I tried schmoozing a D.C. police officer, one of whom who was watching over the blockaded Capitol steps, to use my camera to take a pic toward the monument. Showing how awesome the turnout was. Alas he wasn’t allowed to.

Sep 14, 2009 - 8:38 am 3. Bilgeman:

Charlie Martin:

The Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority would have tallies of how many people exited their stations on the Mall, as well as how many people entered the computer database-linked turnstiles.

They are pretty adept at making these numbers available when it’s Appropriations season, too.

This would give us a very accurate count of the total set of people who traveled, using the Metro, to and from the Mall area during the time period in question.

Sep 14, 2009 - 8:50 am 4. jclarkv:

On CNN this morning one of their anchors said “tens of thousands”.

Sep 14, 2009 - 8:56 am 5. Sherab Zangpo:

Thank you for the effort you put in this.

The funniest line is:
“Legacy media reports 70,000″.

The soviet media are becoming the Comical Ali.

Thank you for the opportunity to comment.

Sep 14, 2009 - 8:59 am 6. Bilgeman:

Charlie Martin:

Let’s watch this space:

http://www.wmata.com/rail/disruption_reports/archived_service_reports.cfm

At this level, they only show total Metro ridership and don’t break it down by stations, (although I’m sure that WMATA has this level of data available, since train scheduling would depend on ridership}.

Just for shits and giggles, here’s January 20th, 2009’s ridership totals:

http://www.wmata.com/rail/disruption_reports/viewPage_update.cfm?ReportID=1327

1.1 million subway riders.

versus January 20th, 2008:

http://www.wmata.com/rail/disruption_reports/viewPage_update.cfm?ReportID=960

160 thousand subway riders.

So let’s what kind of bulge, if any, occurs in the tallies for September 12th.

Sep 14, 2009 - 9:01 am 7. Jim Rockford:

I was there. By 1PM or so, when the flow from Pennsylvania Avenue had dried up, the Grant memorial area was packed, the area around the pool that Grant on his horse overlooks was filled, but west of that was pretty sparse. The report that the “Washington Mall” was filled is false. Based on what I saw, I’d estimate at least 100,000, probably somewhere between 200-300,000 which is pretty darn good.

Sep 14, 2009 - 9:11 am 8. SallyW:

There is an incredible aerial photo in this post:

http://constitutionallyspeaking.wordpress.com/

I think it should clear up any questions.

Sep 14, 2009 - 9:17 am 9. Steve:

You would think the media could report both the high and low end numbers and say the actual count is unclear.

Sep 14, 2009 - 9:27 am 10. jimpres:

It is inconceivable that no one can produce a good estimate of the crowd size. You just take a random sample of a given area and extrapolate to the entire area. Done all the time in math and other classes.

Sep 14, 2009 - 9:34 am 11. Terri:

Reports say that at some point they wouldn’t let any more buses into the city.

Regardless of the number we can safely say the number was more than DC could handle.

Sep 14, 2009 - 9:43 am 12. Calvin Ball:

I would use a log mean, but I can’t explain exactly why. I’d say that taking everything into account, 250,000-500,000 is highly likely, and 1,000,000 is more plausible than 100,000.

Intuition. Can’t really explain why.

Sep 14, 2009 - 9:53 am 13. Calvin Ball:

8. SallyW, that’s a very good picture. That’s what I’ve been waiting for. If this (the Obama inauguration):

http://nicesharpknife.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/4403_17681689.jpg

is 2.3 million, then yes, I’m persuaded that yesterday was well over 1 million. The “60,000-70,000″ estimate is beyond absurd, it’s downright ludicrous.

Either that, or only 50,000 showed up for Obama’s inauguration.

Sep 14, 2009 - 10:01 am 14. Dean:

SallyW,
The picture of the mall is not from the 9/12, it is from the Promise Keepers; yet another large gather of conservatives that wasn’t reported on.

I heard the report about them shutting down the trains and buses due to capacity issues as well. A large group from NC hadn’t made it to Freedom Plaza by 11:30, because their buses couldn’t make it in due to traffic. Whatever the numbers were, they were definitely way more than DC expected.

Sep 14, 2009 - 10:04 am 15. JIm Rockford:

SallyW:

The aerial picture in the link you supplied is not of the 9-12 Tea Party. Probably one of the inauguration.

Sep 14, 2009 - 10:10 am 16. Brian:

It was fascinating to watch things unfold on Twitter yesterday regarding the 9/12 Tea Party in DC. I didn’t study it closely enough to give any iron-clad insights, but my impression was that there were anti-rally people popping in from time to time with grossly inflated claims, which were then re-tweeted as gospel by people who didn’t know any better. Then those folks were mocked for having pro-rally bias because they were using inflated numbers. This article is a nice attempt to put some facts on the ground, but I think our friends at Legacy Media have deflected this story enough to only focus on the disputed numbers rather than why people were there.

Sep 14, 2009 - 10:16 am 17. SallyW:

Thank you for clarifying that. I’d like to find out what it’s really from. I was excited to finally see an aerial shot. I’m disappointed to learn it’s not from 9/12.

It couldn’t have been obama’s inauguration, that was in the winter. After stumbling around on Google wading thru some nasty liberal forums I found that the photograph is from Promise Keepers 10/4/97 as Dean pointed out.

*sigh* how disappointing a conservative site would post it and try to pass it as 9/12.

Thanx for the correction.

Sep 14, 2009 - 10:28 am 18. Ohio Granny:

How about this…., make a web site, get everyone who was there to sign in.
Here are 2 names
Me and Ohio Grandpa. And we drove. And we had a passenger. When you get the site up, I’ll give you our real names. 160 came by bus from Cleveland, O. Over 500 from Akron/Media. Every single Ohio county sent at least one bus. About 1,000 from Cincinnati. We heard 100,000 from Florida from someone who helped get them together.
Now we just need 1,999,998 more if it was 2 mil. Here is what is not reported. All the side streets were full.
The organizers were hoping for 50,000. FIFY THOUSAND! They made that number.
It doesn’t matter if MSNBC or Washington Post give us credit. My mother, a life long democrat and Obama voter (Ohio Great Granny!), sat for my cats and her 100+ retirement residents were cheering us on.
The people there were workers, tax payers, citizens. And even if the Pravda media didn’t report it, the party got it. They know. And they better be careful because the more they try to make us seem less, the more we will become.

Also, 3 helocopters flew over. Who were they and where at the photos?

Sep 14, 2009 - 10:48 am 19. Clioman:

I was there, too. We walked down Penn Ave just a few minutes after the parade kicked off, and then stood about 200′ from center stage until we left at about 2:30 or so. One curious thing: a helicopter circled the area twice @ mid-morning, and then flew off. It was too high to read the markings — the helo was painted white — anybody know who it was?

Sep 14, 2009 - 10:53 am 20. Scott:

The aerial picture in the link you supplied is not of the 9-12 Tea Party. Probably one of the inauguration.

Most definitely not the inauguration, if you think it is I’ve got some ocean front property in AZ to sell you.

Deciduous trees lose their leaves in winter and the grass turns brown, the grass and trees are all nice and green.

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:01 am 21. Stuart:

MSM should condemned for ignoring the news and minimizing the numbers. They won’t be. They are in an impenetrable bubble along with Obama and many leftists.

They will never admit that there is a truly pervasive popular movement that just does not agree with them. They just won’t. They will only really get it if they ask what happened on election day in November 2010, and then answer honestly.

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:02 am 22. John "birther" Samford:

Big enough.
BIG Enough to cause those who haven’t yet figured it out that there will be no more elections as we knew them under a Socialist government to think ANY number matters.
BIG ENOUGH to scare a few fence sitting politicians.
Big enough to cause pundits to wonder how many protesters can dance on a blade of grass. That depends, of course, if it’s bluegrass, bermuda grass, astro turf or Panama Red.

“When one admits that nothing is certain one must, I think, also admit that some things are much more nearly certain than others.”
Bertrand Russell

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:12 am 23. Dean:

“Also, 3 helocopters flew over. Who were they and where at the photos?”

2 of the helicopters were military and didn’t actually fly over the area. They were headed in the direction and then either turned away from the Capitol building or landed. Based on the lack of police during the beginning, it could have been more back up being brought in. Before the march started all of the motorcycle police on Freedom Plaza left. They probably wanted to get their bikes out why there was still room. The other helicopter that flew over, didn’t look military, but it also didn’t look like a news helicopter. It too could have been a police helicopter. It did not hover long enough to take pictures. Not knowing the air flight rules for DC, I’m guessing it was not a civilian helicopter based on it’s flight path.

I read on another blog that the White House said they weren’t aware of the protest. This can’t be true, since the Secret Service sent three agents to North Carolina to talk to one of the ResistNet volunteers after a “storm the White House and Capitol” comment was made on the site’s forum.

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:13 am 24. NormA:

I wonder if any planes out of Reagan climbed past the area, and if passengers took photos. Keep watching the photo sites.

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:14 am 25. countertop:

At the time, with my father in law, I estimated 65 – 70,000 people. After walking around DC, see folks elsewhere, I bumped it up to maybe 100-150,000 people.

Here’s the deal

The west lawn was packed PACKED. And it was packed back to 3rd street. But half that area is taken up by the reflecting pool.

There were a fair amount of people on the mall from 3rd to 4th street, but not anymore than would be there on any other Saturday. By the time you got to 7th street, there was no one – and of course, 7th street back to the Main Smithsonian Building was the National Black Family Reunion (and they weren’t protesting). Oh yeah, there was also a triathlon or something going on down by the river. They were set up on the polo fields over by the Lincoln Memorial. They weren’t protesting either.

So you’ve got the area just immediately in front of the Capitol, back and around the reflecting pool, with some stragglers elsewhere.

Does this mean 75,000 is a small amount?? Hell no. My office is one block from the Capitol (101 Constitution Ave). I drove in, and was shocked as I turned the Corner on 1st street and saw the people. Outside of inaugurations (and it was no where near the number showed up to either Bush’s inauguration or Obamas) and the 4th of July, this was the largest crowd I’ve ever seen in 12 years in DC.

But it wasn’t close to a million people.

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:16 am 26. Odysseus:

The Gormogons speak:

http://www.gormogons.com/2009/09/how-many-people-were-at-big-912-tea.html

Hear them and tremble.

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:17 am 27. Alan:

This is one of the best in estimating the crowd and is uses MSM tools to estimate it http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2009/09/busting-another-state-run-media-lie.html

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:17 am 28. dmitry:

http://johnbatchelorshow.com/schedules/images/29374554.jpg

Is it suitable? It is claimed to be from this tea party/

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:18 am 29. Rob S.:

Do racist haters take up more or less space than normal people? This will be the leading MSM story tonight.

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:31 am 30. Dean:

26. Odysseus: & 28. dmitry: It was pointed out before that the picture is of the Promise Keepers. It would be nice if people would take that off of there blogs. Hopefully they will soon.

It is hard to compare the pictures. I started marching at 10 am with North Carolina. By the time we got down to the Capitol, the center area was about filled and they were sending people to the sides. We filled up the sides more than what was done at the inaugurations. We also filled up the streets around the pool and up to the building with the windmills. Then the mall was filled up to first street, which is behind the “ticketed” area for the inauguration. And there were people behind the CNN Express bus parked in the street there. Not just the center of the mall, but in the trees as well. At 11:30 when I went to take pictures from the inside area, as far as I could see Pennsylvania Avenue was still packed and people were coming down. Since the speaker system wasn’t equipped to span the entire mall, I believe people decided to tour the monuments when they couldn’t hear what was going on. Plenty of people were still at the protest and walking around the monuments when I walked down the length of the mall at around 2 pm.

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:33 am 31. ic:

Charlie Martin: Thank goodness you are not in Europe. You have violated a Euro law: mixing meters and feet.

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:47 am 32. Neo:

Face it, even the Legacy media reports of 70,000 makes it a lot of folks.

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:54 am 33. Trouble:

I was there and I’d guess at 250,000+. Still a heck of a crowd.

FWIW: the most common answer I got to the question, “What prompted you to come?”, had to do with spending. Same goes here.

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:57 am 34. Ethan:

@28: Unfortunately, that photo is from a Promise Keepers event not Saturday’s rally. Four quick reasons why it’s not from Saturday:

1. The Capitol lawn is empty in that picture. On Saturday, the Capitol lawn was full. We were on the South lawn so I can attest to that fact.
2. The National Mall is full in that picture. On Saturday, the event organizers didn’t have permits for the National Mall, so they were blocked off. Check the FreedomWorks site to verify the empty Mall grass.
3. The stage is on the National Mall. On Saturday, the stage was set up in front of the Capitol steps.
4. On Saturday, there were large tents set up on the Mall at 14th Street. No such tents are visible in that picture.

My brother, son, and I had a blast on Saturday. It was our first such event and their first time in DC. I’m all in favor of figuring out the crowd size, but I want to make sure we’re using accurate information. The other side will certainly call us out if we don’t.

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:57 am 35. Keeping Watch:

So–let’s do it again and even bigger next time. I know it is expensive; I know it is a hassle for busy people; I know it is a huge sacrifice–but I believe that for every person who was in Washington over the weekend, there are hundreds more who wanted to be there but couldn’t make it. And I believe the government is well aware of this and is in panic mode. Plan another even–an even bigger event–and next time, MAKE SURE IT COUNTS!

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:57 am 36. Charlie Martin:

SallyW, I suspect you’ve had plenty of correction on that overhead shot, so I won’t do it. The thing is that a good bit of the Mall was reserved by another event; the real pictures from Saturday have a whole lot of people at the Capitol end, a whole lot of people along the sides, and big empty rectangles roped off. Using the USA Today pictures, though, that would be at least in the neighborhood of 250,000, or upwards of 4 times the legacy media’s reports.

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:59 am 37. NormA:

Don’t bother searching for “people meter” because it’s not called that. I tracked the info to this post: http://www.barbaraespinosa.com/2009/09/wtf-congress.html

It sounds like there was some sort of meter set up by the organizers. So wherever their web site is, look there for those numbers.

Sep 14, 2009 - 12:03 pm 38. Charlie Martin:

Charlie Martin: Thank goodness you are not in Europe. You have violated a Euro law: mixing meters and feet.

No, I’m just sufficiently cosmopolitan that I don’t care which units I use. Unlike the EU bureaucrats. (Dear EU — and James Taranto — here’s a hint: a pint’s a little less than a liter, and a half-kilo is just over a pound. Now get over it.)

Sep 14, 2009 - 12:07 pm 39. james:

To paraphrase one of the better signs at the event: It doesn’t matter how many of us there were because it’s all about racism.
I’ve heard the R word more frequently in the last 48 hours than from 1968 to the 2008 election.

The enemy is now not just dangerous but really, really stupid.

Sep 14, 2009 - 12:07 pm 40. WD:

Has someone actually contacted GeoEye to see if they might have an image or two or more from yesterday that could be purchased for review? If I were in the business of selling satellite images, I would be sure to take photos of major events, for selling those photos later on. Someone should contact them.

Sep 14, 2009 - 12:20 pm 41. Average American:

Early on, a bit past noon Saturday, I read that the D.C. police estimated 1.2 million people. That is a number I feel quite comfortable with and your exhaustive number crunching (which I applaud you for) seems to bear that out, so I plan on sticking with it. In fact my official number is 1,204,118. I dare any leftard to prove me wrong!

Sep 14, 2009 - 12:21 pm 42. Delia:

Will anyone ever get a reliable number out?

I remember when we used to have the ‘news’. It was often boring, perhaps a bit stale, no gloss, no glam, fairly bare bones but informative and usually fairly honest and non-politicized.

Ah the good ol’ days of yore. *creak*

Sep 14, 2009 - 12:24 pm 43. Substance McGravitas:

So there are the “Legacy media” reports and there are ways of counting that you would like to be true.

Going with the Legacy media on this one.

Sep 14, 2009 - 12:24 pm 44. RagnarDanneskjold:

The solution is obvious—hold an even bigger rally. A lot of people didn’t even know about it until a week or two before. With advance warning, the numbers could double.

Sep 14, 2009 - 12:26 pm 45. M. Simon:

The standard in intel work is that you can exaggerate things by about a factor of 3 before you are easily found out. That means 3X or 1/3X. Assuming the blind media (figure out the acronym yourself) low balled the number that would be 200,000 roughly.

The trouble is that if the blind media is hiding the level of discontent it will blind side the Democrat partisans in 2010. They will do less than they need to to win elections. And then they will wonder where their opposition came from.

Bad intel has ruined countries. This is a great story on how it was done in WW2:

Bodyguard of Lies: The Extraordinary True Story Behind D-Day

Sep 14, 2009 - 12:29 pm 46. Bob:

There was at least 4-5 million. The 60,000 is downplaying propaganda.

- “Say 60,000! For God sake – say 60,000!”
- “OK, man! 60,000 it is.”
- “Thank you”

Sep 14, 2009 - 12:36 pm 47. IShawnM:

First of all, anyone can claim to be there or not and not a few can “claim to have been there” whose interest is to push the accepted total lower than it actually was. There are also those who could be said to want to push the numbers higher than they were. If you compare the pictures to the graph that USA Today put out for estimating the count for Obama’s inauguration, the idea that there was less than a million is rather laughable. Examine the evidences yourselves.

My girlfriend was at the gathering and she spoke with some of the cops there who claimed that there were more people at the 912 gathering than were at the Obama inauguration. The Parks service who estimated the million man march at 600,000 estimated at 11am (before everyone got there) that the figure was 1.2 million. I also heard figures of 3 million or more being floated about by other persons who were in DC and others who claim they were saying it was less than 600,000.

I was not there but I can do math and by using the Park Service estimation printed in USA Today on 1/19/09 have concluded that there is no way the crowd was less than a million though how much more than that, I cannot say.

So lets see, we have conflicting parties there with presumably differing agendas. How about appealing to a third party with no dog in this fight at all? With that in mind, consider this piece from the Daily Mail out of the UK:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1213056/Up-million-march-US-Capitol-protest-Obamas-spending-tea-party-demonstration.html

The Daily Mail’s foreign correspondence desk said there were “up to two million” people there. Presumably we can agree that the Daily Mail is not in bed with the Obama administration the way the American media (with their asinine “60,000-75,000″ figure or the “tens of thousands” schtick) are. There is also no reason to presume that they have an interest in artificially inflating these figures for the conservatives. So if we agree with those premises, the figure of “between 1 and 2 million” is not an unreasonable one to go with.

Sep 14, 2009 - 12:41 pm 48. Moogie:

Why would anyone be surprised that the legacy media is under-reporting the event and the crowd numbers?

To them, 2 + 2 = 5.

Sep 14, 2009 - 1:04 pm 49. Substance McGravitas:

How about appealing to a third party with no dog in this fight at all? With that in mind, consider this piece from the Daily Mail out of the UK

Jesus Christ, there’s someone who’s never read the Daily Mail.

Sep 14, 2009 - 1:17 pm 50. Chester White:

The Pennsylvania Ave. number leaves out a hell of a lot of people:

1. Those going from Union Station (Metro and MARC stops) to the Capitol. Surely a gigantic number.

2. Those approaching the Capitol from the side opposite the Mall.

3. Those approaching the Capitol directly up the Mall, as from the Smithsonian/Federal Triangle Metro stops.

4. Those coming from the area of Air and Space/Ag. Building.

Sep 14, 2009 - 1:20 pm 51. Jeffrey:

This administration is already getting ugly and mean; this crowd just may push them over top and make them go crazy. The idiots in the Obama administration are vastly outnumbered and they are scared to death and we’ve only just begun to fight them.
How about that drone rally in Minnesota? The moronic crowd had to be pumped up by the Mr. Liar in Chief himself. The President says in so many words he’s going to kick our ass and ram health care down our throats. These beloved politicians are barking dogs full of fear and they should be afraid. Lots of them are going to jail the rest are going home.

Sep 14, 2009 - 1:22 pm 52. DailyDanet:

Great work, thanks.

I think the difference in area of the National Mall is because you had people standing on top of the trees. The NPS uses only usable square footage, it sounds like you used gross footage.

Sep 14, 2009 - 1:24 pm 53. fastwalker:

“marching, at something between 2 and 4 miles per hour because that’s how fast people march. Let’s choose 3 mph:”

I doublt that a crowd like that moves at 3 mph. That is a consistantly brisk walk. I would guess 1.5 to 2mph max.

Sep 14, 2009 - 1:26 pm 54. Odysseus:

@Dean 30

Thanks for the correction. I hadn’t read that. But, from what you describe it sounds pretty respectable – to say the least. Let me ask you to clarify your report a bit.

When you refer to the center (“…the center area was about filled and they were sending people to the sides.”) are you referring to the center of the Mall. And when say filled do you mean from the Capitol (you mention 1st Street on the east of the Capitol) down to the Lincoln Memorial or short of that? When you refer to the pool are you referring to the Reflecting pool in front of the Lincoln Memorial? If all this was filled and Pennsylvania Ave was still largely filled with people, then the larger estimates become more believable.

Sep 14, 2009 - 1:28 pm 55. Chester White:

“(Dear EU — and James Taranto — here’s a hint: a pint’s a little less than a liter…”

Uh, that’s “quart,” not “pint.”

Harry Truman used the figure of 4.5 square feet per person in a crowd in the book PLAIN SPEAKING. Actually, 2 people per square yard.

What we need to do is have another event like this and FILL the Capitol building from one end to the other, top to bottom, in addition to the Mall.

Now that would be something to see, and to hear the MSM bleat about.

Sep 14, 2009 - 1:30 pm 56. William:

When German Field Marshall Molke attacked France (via Belgium) in 1914, his army numbered 1,500,000 men. In his plan he calculated he needed a man for every square meter of the battle front, so the estimate of 18 people per 10 square meters for a crowd sounds reasonable.

Sep 14, 2009 - 1:30 pm 57. JFM:

My own, IMHO, very reliable, methodology is “the Stadium methodology”. It does not give a precise account but it is an infallible BS detector

I compare against the crowd of the nearest Football Stadium. The MSM say 70,000 people gathered to demonstrate. The FedEx Fiestadium where the Washington Red Skins play has a capacity of 91,704. Just think in how much or how little time it takes for people to evacuate the FedEx Stadium and compare against the time needed after the demonstration. Just compare the traffic jams and the overcrowding in the metro.
Mentally spread those 91704 persons and compare aginst teh surface occupied by the demonstrators.

Then take your own conclusions about who is lying here.

Sep 14, 2009 - 1:31 pm 58. M. Report:

18. Ohio Granny: How about this:
make a web site,
get everyone who was there to sign in.

22. John “birther” Samford: BIG Enough
To require Socialized Elections
To scare a few fence sitting politicians.
To cause pundits to wonder how many protesters
can dance on which kind of Grass.

And the answer is…

If banks can keep track of who bought what
using a credit card, they can sure as Statism
be used to provide independent verification
of election returns; This is likely to be
far more important in 2010 than anyone here
wants to believe, because even “Safe” i.e.
Gerrymandered, Districts won’t be safe by then,
** and the incumbents will know it ** .

Sep 14, 2009 - 1:32 pm 59. Marty:

60k is a joke. 60k is a Bengals game. There were at least 4X to 5X of 60k. Personally I would guess half mill, but I’d believe a mill before I would believe 60k.

Sep 14, 2009 - 1:46 pm 60. Avidbuff:

Dmitry. no that image is NOT from the 9/12 event. Way too sunny a day.

Sep 14, 2009 - 1:48 pm 61. avidbuff:

SallyW that pic, if you are referring to the nice sunny pic of the mall is not from Saturday’s march. Way too sunny.

My opinion only. I don’t know the origin of the pic but if yo compare it to the others there appears to be way too much sunlight.

Sep 14, 2009 - 1:54 pm 62. Kim:

Jim Rockford @ 15

There’s no way that that’s a shot of the inauguration. Trees with leaves =/= January in Washington DC.

Sep 14, 2009 - 2:01 pm 63. Poor Citizen:

Who cares how many? Its what they were there for that matters…but if it really…really MATTERS…

There were 300 million, 100,000 at the march and 290 million and 900 thousand surrounding them.

Sep 14, 2009 - 2:07 pm 64. ked5:

23. Dean:

I read on another blog that the White House said they weren’t aware of the protest.

~~~~

Yeah, Gibbs made a public statement they were “unaware” of any protest in DC. Yeah. Right. That’s why dear leader flew to MN (ticking off commerical passengers who then dealt with flight delays and missed connections in MN) to have a rally with his paid supporters.

How do you know gibbs is lying? his lips are moving.

Sep 14, 2009 - 2:14 pm 65. Ken:

At best I’d call it an upper bound. I am actually a traffic engineer and I know something about walking speeds because I used to time traffic signals (including the walk interval). The standard design speed is 4 ft/sec, which comes out to 2.7 mph. Even at the end of the march, the crowd was moving below this speed – or at best at the speed; which is not surprising since there were a range of ages, etc. I’ll call the speed at the end 2.5 mph. However, at the start of the march, the crowd was much denser but also MUCH slower (also not surprising with anyone familiar with crowd dynamics). At best, I’d call it 1.2mph.

The estimates of the street being 100 feet wide is probably realistic – at least as far as usable width is concerned (i.e., there were periodic barriers and other things in the street that decreased the width a bit.) There was also at least one slow moving float in the march that would have lowered the count a bit. The length would be 5700 feet, so the area is 570,000 sq ft, slightly less than his number, but within rounding errors. Crowd density where he had numbers we probably a little below standing crowd numbers – So once again, his number of 100,000 to fill Penn on the march is on the high side but still reasonable. The catch is he then uses a fast walking speed with a dense crowd rather than a very slow speed, which was occurring at the count site. That would cut his number by 1/2 to 1/3rd. Or down to 300,000 to 400,000 as actually marching past the point. This is very different than the 1.5 mil cited.

Of course the real way to measure moving people on an averaged type basis is based on headway, i.e., how much time elapses between one person and the next. At the extreme, people do not walk closer than at about one second headways – because reaction times are about a second and people don’t want to bump into each other. Perfect symmetry would allow perhaps 33 people to be marching across the street (i.e., 100 ft wide / 3 feet per person). This would produce an upper bound estimate of about 3600 pp/hr * 33ppl wide or just over 100,000 ppl per hour in a very densely packed crowd. This means a maximum of about 350,000 over the three hour period. This would line up with my revisions above and also is very similar to a few other analyses I performed at http://www.political-gumbo.com

I will concede that there were probably many that came to the main event, but not the march, but I still don’t think it was anywhere near a million. Also, based on my observations and the pics from Obama’s inauguration, I don’t think we were anywhere close to those numbers. We were probably more densely packed, but we certainly did not have the depth of the crowd (as near as I could tell, the crowd only went back to 1/3rd of the Mall and we were not allowed on the back part where another event was scheduled.

I would have liked to have seen more people there, but I also believe that we need to be as objective and truthful when we report our numbers. I understand that others are not – but that is what makes us different.

Sep 14, 2009 - 2:23 pm 66. Mike O:

I was sent the picture here that might help

http://northtexasteaparty.org/2009/09/14/a-small-gathering-of-friends-in-dc/

Sep 14, 2009 - 2:28 pm 67. JoeCitizen:

The 250K from the Park Service methodology is probably the most accurate measure. Except that is for a static event like an inauguration, where people are not moving much, and thus crammed in tighter. For a demo like this, the density would be at least 1/2 or 1/3. So 80-120,000 might be a reasonable guess.

Sep 14, 2009 - 2:34 pm 68. Scott:

Delia wrote:

“I remember when we used to have the ‘news’. It was often boring, perhaps a bit stale, no gloss, no glam, fairly bare bones but informative and usually fairly honest and non-politicized.”

While I agree withe the stale & boring it was not quite as honest and non-politicized as we’d like to “remember”. We just didn’t have the internet, video cams, cell phones (and pics & video from them), and blogs back in the day to call them out on it. The outlets also had a little more tact and we’re quite so obvious about it as the Communists, Socialists, or liberals didn’t hold the reigns of power on all levels back then.

Sep 14, 2009 - 2:42 pm 69. Bilgeman:

There’s a few things that should be borne in mind about the MSM’s coverage of yesterday’s event.

-MSM alpahabet soup media are all in DESPERATE financial straits as their consumers discard them like used tampons. If they report that Conservative philosophy for less taxes and smaller role for government is growing, they would be in danger of shattering their already broken rice-bowl should they contribute to a “bandwagon effect” to Fox and more conservative or balanced media sources.

-Denial. We all now how heavily and emotionally invested the MSM has been in the Alleged Hawaiian’s candidacy and Administration, so it’s not surprising that they should treat the first harbingers of their downfall, especially coming so soon, with a blunt refusal to contemplate what is happening.

-The Con Man’s game. A con man cannot take advantage of you unless you yourself harbor some facet of unscrupulousness,(believing that you can get something for nothing), you have to be complicit in your own exploitation. It stands to follow then, that the MSM’s falsehoods and half-truths need only be sufficient enough to convinc the chump who is already prepared to believe them.

Sep 14, 2009 - 2:49 pm 70. Charlie Martin:

Going with the Legacy media on this one.

because you’d rather believe them than your lying eyes?

Sep 14, 2009 - 2:50 pm 71. Yael:

Here’s another way to calculate. Lines at the port-o-potties were 50-60 people deep. Definitely more showed up than were expected.

I heard from friends who were there that they met a young man who had ridden buses for 3 days to get there from Washington state, and a lady from Florida had held bake sales (300+ cupcakes) to get there. If only there were a way to measure zeal.

Sep 14, 2009 - 3:09 pm 72. Truth teller:

I was there. I am a loyal man of the right. If we say that there were more than 50,000, then we sound as crazy as those lefty loons who say there were 100,000. Trust me. I live in DC and have to see these protests all the time. I am the guy counterprotesting them! I know what 50,000 looks like. There were 50,000. That’s damn impressive and we should be proud to shout it to the heavens. But when we say 100,000 or 500,000 or 1 million, people will think we’re delusional when we need to be truth tellers.

Sep 14, 2009 - 3:10 pm 73. AST:

I keep telling you guys, I’ve looked at the photos and I estimate that crowd at two trillion.

Sep 14, 2009 - 3:14 pm 74. DaveB:

Someone mentioned the Metro Archive. For Inaugural on Jan 20,2009 there was 1,120,000 riders for comparison

Sep 14, 2009 - 3:16 pm 75. Fresh Air:

There you have it, Charlie. Truth Teller has told you. We should trust him. Your sums and calculations don’t mean a thing next to his gigantic cranium.

Sep 14, 2009 - 3:25 pm 76. sal j:

DC was great, great people and a lot of fun. But from what i gathered not much was going on outside of the people packed on the hill.

the mall was empty except for the black family reunion or something. ha , i even tried to recruit but they were a stubbern bunch.

All in good fun– yes siry

Sep 14, 2009 - 3:26 pm 77. Dave B:

These are fairly good photos And Seem legit:
http://moderateinthemiddle.wordpress.com/2009/09/12/update-how-big-was-the-crowd-media-credibility-plunges-to-new-low-aerial-views-added-d-c-police-close-roads-to-buses-people-on-foot-estimate-1-2-million-abc-cant-count-912-party-on-patriots/

Sep 14, 2009 - 3:30 pm 78. Dave B:

Truth Teller, No offense, but I’ve been to several rallies in DC of different sizes. I went to Penn State and know crowds from the football games. There is definitely more then 50,0000.

Sep 14, 2009 - 3:37 pm 79. Charlie Martin:

Mike O, that’s the Promise Keepers picture we’ve talked about above. It was overcast Saturday and big areas of the Mall were blocked off.

Sep 14, 2009 - 3:43 pm 80. Charlie Martin:

Truth teller, there are more than 50,000 people at any one time in any one frame of the time-lapse from 14th and E.

Sep 14, 2009 - 3:45 pm 81. Roderick Reilly:

65. Ken:

My observations are similar to yours. The 2 million, or even 1 million figures are ridiculous, but a few hundred thousand is plausible. Now, when you consider that only 50,000 were expected, any number dramatically larger than that is phenomenal.

Sep 14, 2009 - 4:07 pm 82. Substance McGravitas:

because you’d rather believe them than your lying eyes?

Even the liars at FreedomWorks have revised downwards of your 850 000. I just don’t think much of your eyes.

Sep 14, 2009 - 4:23 pm 83. PK:

The aerial photograph that has been referred to as the Promise Keepers event appears to me to be pretty much identical to a poster I have of that crowd. Note the towers down the center of the crowd. These displayed jumbotrons that allowed people way back from the main stage to see and hear the speakers. Was there anything like that at the 9/12 event. I attended tne PK event and it is a little hard to imagine how you’d pack very many more folks in there, but I suppose it could be done if the police and other officials were intent on hitting a high number as opposed to keeping it small and manageable.

Sep 14, 2009 - 5:36 pm 84. Lars Olfen:

8. Sally

There is no way that photo was of 9/12. I was standing at the steps of the capital building, that area and the lawn around the pool were packed with people. The photo shows none of those people. I agree with the estimates of 850k to 1m plus, don’t fabricate evidence to support the argument.

Sep 14, 2009 - 5:37 pm 85. Ned Flanders, pHd:

Too bad your aerial photo has been debunked thoroughly. It’s from a late 90’s Promise Keepers rally. There’s no Museum of the American Indian, no white tent.

Nice try.

Anyone with a brain can see the difference in DENSITY between pics of the protests in Tehran, Obama’s Inaugural, or any of the big anti-war protests throughout the world and your little hate-o-palooza.

Sep 14, 2009 - 5:45 pm 86. Zach:

In no photo of the march portion of the event have I seen people packed more than 1 person per square meter. Your 500,000 sq ft -> 100,000 people means each person would be in a box 2.2 feet on each side. The average shoulder width is about 2 feet. Optimally packed, this means there would be less than a foot separating people. Do the pictures you see look anything like that? I don’t think folks were marching in formation, and that’s basically what’s required for that crowd density.

If there were really more than 100,000 people at the rally, someone would’ve taken a picture from the stage that would prove it. Judging from the webcam footage from E/14th, I’d guess less than 60,000 people. There aren’t any pictures showing the extent and density of the actual rally… pictures of people around the reflecting pool don’t show it to be very crowded but that’s not much to go on.

Sep 14, 2009 - 5:52 pm 87. deguello:

#1`DALE:”Not big enough”? ARE`YOU QUOTING YOUR WIFE?

Sep 14, 2009 - 6:03 pm 88. Linda Lou:

I was present for the entire rally and we were packed in as close as we could be without touching. Figure that.

Sep 14, 2009 - 6:15 pm 89. jharp:

Ruh roh.

I think we need some corrections from some posters.

And I’m sure it was an honest mistake. Freedom works wouldn’t lie to inflate the numbers. No way.

FreedomWorks, the main organizers of the Tea Party event in Washington this past weekend, has dramatically lowered its estimate for the size of the crowd at the event from 1.5 million, a number the group now concedes was a mistake, to between 600,000 and 800,000 people — though this is still substantially more than the tens of thousands that most mainstream media outlets have estimated

Sep 14, 2009 - 7:05 pm 90. NormA:

“I read on another blog that the White House said they weren’t aware of the protest.”

Choose one:
1. The White House is lying. They knew of the protest and are lying. Should they be trusted for anything?
2. The White House is clueless. They didn’t know about a huge protest planned on their doorstep for the day after 9/11, whose countdown has been reported for weeks on major media. Should they be trusted for anything?

Sep 14, 2009 - 7:07 pm 91. Kevin:

Near the main stage though it was more congested the closer you got to the stage, the Capital police limited the number of people on the grass, they claimed for emergency vehicles if needed. It gave the appearance of less people. Once you were off the lawn and on the street past the fences people were elbow to elbow. When I got there around noon people were leaving to the point that I thought it was over. But when I left about 3:00 people were still coming and going. I came by bus and had to get off several blocks from the normal bus stops. People lined the streets that had nothing to do with the march due to outdoor shopping stands that had been set up. I’m sure people were taking advantage of their visit to D.C. and these people would be out of overhead camera view at any given time. With what I saw I hope Washington politicians are going to consider the fact that we were there. Walking in there were several long pauses and outright stoppages like you would run into on a freeway that had road construction slowing things to a crawl. Sad to say I really don’t think they care about even this.

Sep 14, 2009 - 7:12 pm 92. jharp:

“Freedom Works has down-revised their estimate from a completely crazy 1.5 million to a 1/2 completely crazy estimate of between 600k and 800k, which nevertheless appears to be at least ten times what independent observers estimate.”

I wonder how that could happen. Cutting your estimate by 1/2 in 2 days. Though I’M SURE it was honest mistake.

Everyone is laughing at you.

Sep 14, 2009 - 7:22 pm 93. Kim:

We came from Union Station and walked to the capitol with lots of other people, and we didn’t get into Washington until 11:00. It was a great experience, exciting and inspiring. We left at around 2:30, since I threw out my back last week and was only good for walking a mile or two. (Middle age is sometimes a pain, literally!) Union station was packed with obvious attendees of the rally (t-shirts and flags, etc.), both when we arrived and when we left.

People were coming and going from the rally, leaving to find a bathroom at Union Station that didn’t have an hour wait like the portapottys at the event, or looking to find a bite to eat before heading back to the rally. You couldn’t really hear any of the speakers unless you were up close. It was so packed that even attempting to get up toward the capitol was useless, so the crowd was pretty mobile. People were moving around a lot and coming and going, talking to people and checking out the great signs and costumes some people were wearing. It was great to see some considerably older people there, and I think a lot of the older people came and went pretty quickly, since it was warm and very crowded and hard to find a place to sit and take a break. I think a lot of people didn’t stay for the whole event; they just wanted to come and show there support for the cause, so to speak, so any static picture from a single moment won’t reflect the real number of attendees.

I have no idea how to even guess how many people were there, but even the time lapsed traffic cam wouldn’t show everyone coming into the rally through different routes. I don’t think it’s really important to get caught up in an argument about how many of us were there, how white or how old or how “whatever” the crowd was. It’s just a distraction from the real issues. It was historic. Thrilling. My husband and I spent the first 10 minutes just walking around saying, “wow!” I was proud to be there with my fellow citizens.

For every person that went to the march, there are, I feel, many others at home that couldn’t make it but feel the same concerns about what’s happening to our country and in our political system. People who went to a local tea party in their area, or tried to find some news about the march on t.v. or followed updates on the Web. And we all have a vote, and we can all make our voice be heard, and we can all exercise our rights to dissent. Don’t you just love our country? It’s truly wonderous.

Sep 14, 2009 - 7:30 pm 94. goy:

Oops – looks like jharp, Mofo, Dave Schnor, N&T, BC and vivo will be back on the unemployment line soon.

This was 100% the result of the conservative blogosphere’s efforts. BHO’s lying, entrenched, Fifth Column media shills were completely asleep at the switch on this issue.

Keep up the pressure people.

Sep 14, 2009 - 7:45 pm 95. Gregory:

jharp wonders how it is possible to revise your numbers after 2 days.

Hmm. I think it’s called ‘admitting and correcting your mistakes’. Something the MSM and leftwing blogs can stand to learn something from.

However, even the relatively short time I have spent lurking about has convinced me that you are a Grade B troll, sir, and I shall spend no more time on feeding you.

Sep 14, 2009 - 7:57 pm 96. Praetorian:

The only reason to lie about crowd numbers is because they are embarrassed. And here’s why.

http://www.thefoldblog.com/2009/09/why-lie.html

Sep 14, 2009 - 7:59 pm 97. Owen:

There was definitely enough people there to sway an election in a large town or small city. But taxpayers elected Obama, and they may keep electing Dems if Republicans seem too radical.

Sep 14, 2009 - 8:07 pm 98. Al Reasin:

Since no one can seem to find an expert to analyze the time lapse video of the rally, here is my quick and dirty estimate. Oh, the British Daily Mail reported 2 million; being there, I was transfixed for a short time when I came our of the Metro and saw the crowd.

PA avenue was covered from Freedom Plaza to the Capital; that is about 1 mile (WH to Capitol 1.2 miles) of people on a street 6 lanes wide or 80 ft from Google data. A mile is 5280 ft x 80 ft at 2.5 sq feet per person (Obama’s inauguration number for the mall) gives us over 168,960 people just there at any one time. This human traffic lasted for 3 hours from the media. With the average human walking speed of 3 miles per hour, that is 168,960 people passing a point every 33 minutes or over 3 hours being 9 x 168,960 = 1,520,640. Although, like me not all people started at Freedom Plaza. Many went directly to the Capitol for good “seats” and not all came down PA Ave. The police also asked the protesters to leave the plaza two hours early. Nor does it count the time after 12:30 when people were still arriving or the people on the sidewalks along PA Ave. So the number of 1.5 million may be low.

I sent this to Special Report and Bret Baier wrote back: “Thanks for the email. We chose to go by the DC Fire Department estimate.. but… as we noted .. it could have been more”.

The DC fire dept! O’Reilly said the same thing on his program. I couldn’t belive the number of people when I came out of the Metro. I was litterly stunned. I have been in DC countering the anti-war demonstrations and they were nothing compared to this.

Thanks for watching

Sep 14, 2009 - 8:28 pm 99. David S:

Using the best estimate as your lower bound is clever. Nice work. But the truth is out there.

Just admit that there were at best 100,000 people there and try for a better turnout next time. Having an actual purpose aside from complaining would help.

Peace.

DS

At 538 there is a good analysis:

…yesterday, someone told a real whopper. ABC News, citing the DC fire department, reported that between 60,000 and 70,000 people had attended the tea party rally at the Capitol. By the time this figure reached Michelle Malkin, however, it had been blown up to 2,000,000. There is a big difference, obviously, between 70,000 and 2,000,000. That’s not a twofold or threefold exaggeration — it’s roughly a thirtyfold exaggeration.

The way this false estimate came into being is relatively simple: Matt Kibbe, the president of FreedomWorks, lied, claiming that ABC News had reported numbers of between 1.0 and 1.5 million when they never did anything of the sort. A few tweets later, the numbers had been exaggerated still further to 2 million. Kibbe wasn’t “in error”, as Malkin gently puts it. He lied. He did the equivalent of telling people that his penis is 53 inches long.

Malkin, who to her credit later corrected the error, frets that it might be used to by liberals to “discredit the undeniably massive turnout”. She’s right to be worried — it absolutely will be used that way. If you don’t want to be discredited, then don’t, as Kibbe did, tell a ridiculous (and easily disprovable) lie.

Sep 14, 2009 - 8:46 pm 100. Mike O:

Thanks for all the discussion. The picture we posted came from two sources who said it was from the rally. It has been replaced with one definitively from the 9-12 rally. Still looks to be in the million range.

Sep 14, 2009 - 8:47 pm 101. David S:

@71. Yael:

Here’s another way to calculate. Lines at the port-o-potties were 50-60 people deep. Definitely more showed up than were expected.

Either that or the average TP attendee is more incontinent than expected. Did someone say full of sh!t?

Peace.

DS

DS

Sep 14, 2009 - 9:00 pm 102. Joe:

Kim gives a true feel of the event. The majority of the people I saw were West of the Capitol, but about 25% were never in that area. When I left at 1 p.m. some were leaving the area, but many were just arriving. Do you count people that did not go all the way to the rally? I would, especially if they were waving a flag of holding a sign. 500,000 is an honest guesstimate.

Sep 14, 2009 - 9:00 pm 103. BC:

There needs to be some better aerial or better yet a decent satellite shot to really judge.

All nice and good but where were you guys the past several years during stuff like this,this, and this?

Priorities seem to be a little askew in Rightwingland….

Sep 14, 2009 - 9:32 pm 104. Scott Ball:

The person who did the time lapse movie on YouTube has the correct number. He filmed the whole thing and then chopped it down to what you see on YouTube. The original video has all of the marchers on it. That video can be used to determine the correct number of marchers.

I’ve been looking at the service reports for the Metro Transit Authority. They have been stalled at September 9 since the weekend. Does anyone besides me find it really strange that they suddenly stopped releasing their numbers just a few days before the Party? And that they haven’t release them since? What’s the story there? Did someone order them to not track ridership? If they did, that’s big-time news.

I read on Saturday one blogger who counted the number of private busses bringing people in and estimated the number of attendees just from the busses. If you find those and add the additional number of riders from the Transit Authority (assuming they haven’t been shredded) you should get a close, but slightly low, number; maybe a few percentage points too low. This number should be close to the number of marchers on the video.

Sep 14, 2009 - 9:33 pm 105. Now and Then:

87. deguello:
“#1`DALE:”Not big enough”? ARE`YOU QUOTING YOUR WIFE?”

Actually “of guello” I believe he’s quoting your wife.

Sep 14, 2009 - 10:05 pm 106. giantslor:

I was at Obama’s inauguration, and that satellite photo was definitely taken early, before the Mall got packed to the gills. I was in a mass of humanity just west of the Washington Monument (the Monument was between me and the Capitol), an area which in the picture is rather bare. The big groups of people in the picture are gathered in front of huge monitors, but by the time the ceremony started, there was zero room in front of the monitors, and people had to stand where they could. There wasn’t a single patch of land that was empty.

It’s unfortunate that no satellite was available to take a photo at the crowd’s peak, as this photo misrepresents the massive crowd. If the National Mall holds 1.5 million, then the figure of 2 million is definitely correct, since the Mall was seriously overflowing and many other people were gathered along the parade route and watching in other venues.

Sep 14, 2009 - 10:13 pm 107. letsanityprevail:

Best estimates figure that the average IQ for the crowd on the Mall was 83. That sounds a bit high, though.

Sep 14, 2009 - 10:34 pm 108. John:

My wife and I are disabled and were unable to attend. Count us among the “tens of thousands” of Americans who will manage to get to our poll on election day to declare our opposition to this governments agenda.
That head count will be accurate…

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:38 pm 109. Jamie:

David S, why is it that people who end their posts with “Peace” are so rude in their address? It’s like that “I’m sorry but…” construction: the exact opposite of an apology, couched in apologetic terms. Do you think we won’t notice your belligerence if you imply you’re for “peace”?

It’s apparently your belief that the D.C. Fire folks gave the “best” estimate. Why is it the best? On what was it based? Or do you assume it’s the best because it conforms most closely to what you’d like to believe?

(Progressives, I often think, could be more properly called “projectives.”)

Sep 15, 2009 - 2:05 am 110. Substance McGravitas:

Does anyone besides me find it really strange that they suddenly stopped releasing their numbers just a few days before the Party?

It’s a conspiracy to make teabaggers look like a bunch of stupid idiots who make numbers up.

Sep 15, 2009 - 7:11 am 111. Now and Then:

OK, we can’ all stop guessing now. Glenn Beck has the final tally. It’s 1.7 million according to “some university i can’t remember.”

Funny thing, the university I can’t remember said it was 50-60,000.

Sep 15, 2009 - 7:27 am 112. Ding:

I was in Corpus Christi, TX recently and had an opportunity to go to the Hazel Bazemore County Park where they have a program in place to count Hawks migrating south for the winter. Sometimes hundreds of thousands a day are spotted moving south along the costal plain (On this particular day I saw half a dozen birds). The big movement starts later in September.

Anyway, as the counting process was explained to me by Hawk Watch paid staff on site, I was struck by how subjective the whole thing is.

Seems to me, in this day and age, with all the stuff we have at our disposal, that the subjectivity in counting anything should be long gone.

Sep 15, 2009 - 7:42 am 113. Middleman:

Politifact has now revealed the aerial photographic being passed around was actually taken of a Promise Keepers even from several years ago.

Looks like FreedomWorks hates commies, but doesn’t mind taking pointers from their propaganda playbook.

Sep 15, 2009 - 8:06 am 114. Charlie Martin:

Well, we clearly have crossed the troll bridge.

So look, guys. You have my methods, you have my sources. I took 60,000 as the lower bound because it was, well, the lower bound: the least estimate from vaguely credible sources. Now, if you look around, you’ll also find that the Fire Department has since said the 60,000 estimate was taken early, and the total undoubtedly grew.

Given that 1.5 million is an actual count, I probably should have given it more weight than I did, but I threw it out as an outlier as the conservative (heh) approach.

If you can dispute the method or the computations — as Ken did with his post at Political Gumbo — then go to it. Otherwise, you might find this Wikipedia article useful.

By the way, I’ve just sent an email to the Metro media relations people asking when updates on ridership after 9 September will be available.

Sep 15, 2009 - 8:19 am 115. Charlie Martin:

Middleman: Looks like FreedomWorks hates commies, but doesn’t mind taking pointers from their propaganda playbook.

Um, middleman, can you source the attribution of that overhead picture to FreedomWorks?

Did you read the comments, in which I among others point out the same substantive point, that it’s not a reliable photo?

If I were to Google for some of the phrases in your note, would I find it’s cut and pasted all over the web?

Sep 15, 2009 - 8:21 am 116. David S:

@109. Jamie:

David S, why is it that people who end their posts with “Peace” are so rude in their address?

I’m sorry if you took offense to a little potty humor. Given the kind of ridicule and ad hominem attacks that are carelessly posted here daily, it is a rather tame example of “rudeness” on PJM. Your ire is misdirected.

It’s like that “I’m sorry but…” construction: the exact opposite of an apology, couched in apologetic terms. Do you think we won’t notice your belligerence if you imply you’re for “peace”?

My belligerence in the name of peace is of the non-violent sort, in case you hadn’t noticed. I’m of the “pen is mightier than the sword” school. People marching on DC to protest Obama are exercising their rights, and I support their speech to that extent. Lying about the nature of the legislation in Congress and about the turnout at the protest are simply SOP for the GOP. Lies are no longer a surprise from the right wing of the media; their lack of credibility is well earned.

It’s apparently your belief that the D.C. Fire folks gave the “best” estimate. Why is it the best? On what was it based? Or do you assume it’s the best because it conforms most closely to what you’d like to believe?

It’s the best estimate available because it is the only one that is nonpartisan, and therefore credible. The rest of the numbers bandied about here have been based on deliberate lies or cocktail napkin fantasy calculations. Maybe you could share which method you think works best for crowd estimates?

(Progressives, I often think, could be more properly called “projectives.”)

That’s a much kinder label than the average PJM reader would use. I hope I have not offended your sensibilities with my candor.

Peace.

DS

Sep 15, 2009 - 8:22 am 117. Linda Tinjum:

From Max Fischer at The Atlantic. “. . . What no one has noted is that two-thirds of the National Mall was filled by an entirely separate event on Saturday that had nothing to do with protesting the president. September 12 just happened to be the 24th-annual Black Family Reunion, which ran from 7th Street all the way to the Washington Monument. I spent several hours on the Mall on Saturday, and there’s no question that protesters numbered at least in the tens of thousands, but they were isolated to only a fraction of the area they’re credited with having filled. The Black Family Reunion, a peaceful and friendly event designed around “healing and uplifting black families,” featured mild-mannered African American families meandering through a series of promotional tables and large white tents scattered across the Mall. One crowd gathered across from the Washington Monument, not to protest health-care reform but to enjoy a Christian-themed R&B concert, where volunteers handed out free water bottles and bananas.

Not even the most biased observer could have mistaken these people for anti-Obama protesters. So why did so many pundits conflate the cheery Black Family Reunion with the angry tea-party protesters? The answer, I think, is that they either weren’t there or didn’t bother to leave the protest’s zenith on the Capitol steps. It’s an institutional hazard of covering protests that reporters seek out the center of the action and don’t budge, giving them great anecdotes from individual attendees but little sense of the event’s overall scope. Similarly, it’s easy for bloggers to just read after-action reports or browse a few photos before drawing conclusions. But these are both risky strategies for covering big events, and it’s easy to see why people are so confused about Saturday’s attendance figures.”

Sep 15, 2009 - 8:43 am 118. goy:

@116. David S: – I’m sorry if you took offense… Your ire is misdirected.

LOL!!!

Moral adolescence on display: endlessly useful.

Serial lack of reason: consistent proof of mania.

The Quintessential, Leftist Non-Apology: Priceless!!!

Well played, Zippy. Well played.

Sep 15, 2009 - 8:48 am 119. David S:

@118. goy:

Proving my point regarding civility in 5 minutes flat: Priceless!

Peace.

DS

Sep 15, 2009 - 9:16 am 120. Middleman:

Charlie,
http://www.Politifact.com. Right there on the front.

Sep 15, 2009 - 9:49 am 121. Bilgeman:

Charlie Martin:

Lookie here! As of the time of this posting, Metro has updated it’s ridership tallies to include September 14th, but not the dates of September 10th, 11th, 12th, and 13th.

Someone get a screenshot of this quickly, since I’m not able to do it on my computer.

http://www.wmata.com/rail/disruption_reports/archived_service_reports.cfm

I canonly surmise that this would indicate that the books are being cooked by Metro.

There is no other rational reason for the delay.

Sep 15, 2009 - 10:07 am 122. Dave:

Bilgeman is right about the missing data.

BUT here is the thing. Even if they report the numbers, how do you split out the large number that traditionally attend the Black Families Day celebration that was going on at the same time?

D.C. tourism sites say that event, which has been running for 24 years now, has in recent years attracted up to 500,000 people.

I guess you would have to look at ridership numbers from the last couple of Black Families Day events, and then examine th increase in ridership numbers over that?

Sep 15, 2009 - 10:20 am 123. Mon:

Was in Capitol lawn in the AM. We left for lunch, went to a deli, where the owner said the FBI were in the day before planning for the event and were expecting 200,000.

Owner, when asked by patrons who were all 912′ers, to put on Fox News, he never heard of Fox News and was perplexed. He said “only cartoons are on on Saturdays” and put on FX station.

After our persistance, young employee was tasked with trying to appease us. Alphabetical search, then page two was Fox News and channel was changed. Owner was miffed as he never heard of Fox News.

Sep 15, 2009 - 10:34 am 124. Lori:

I was at the rally and walked through the area where the Black Families Day celebration was held. Unless activity picked up after 3:00, that place was dead. Maybe 50 people at the most. Just about every tent was empty.

Sep 15, 2009 - 10:34 am 125. Bilgeman:

#122 Dave:
“BUT here is the thing. Even if they report the numbers, how do you split out the large number that traditionally attend the Black Families Day celebration that was going on at the same time?”

Without station exit data, it makes it more difficult.

Tea Partiers who took Metro would leave stations close to Freedom Plaza or Capitol Hill. Whereas folks there for the Black Families Celebration would exit stations closer to where the nexus of their event was being held.

Seeing as how Metro is inexplicably sitting on ridership totals from the day in question, I’m not too snaguine about the possibilty of them releasing station exit tallies.

Just please someone tell me that they’ve got the screenshot.

Someone is being played.

Sep 15, 2009 - 10:34 am 126. Bilgeman:

Maybe we’ve gotten this all wrong.

Maybe it was 50,000 for the Tea Party.

The marathon, (who the hell watches a marathon? I can’t imagine anything more boring save watching paint dry, or Canadian Parliament), drew 50,000.

And half a million showed up for the Black Family Celebration…

Sep 15, 2009 - 10:45 am 127. Jonathan:

Your methodology is a joke. For example:

“That’s about 600,000 square feet, so if it were a crowd standing still, that is at least 100,000 people.”

Sorry, but marching people and people standing still do not take up the same amount of space. No one can walk when people are taking up 6 square feet each! LOL A normal stride is 3 feet, and you have to have a couple of feet in-between (usually closer to 3-5 in most crowds) or you’re stepping on people’s heels. Multiply that by 3 feet horizontally (and the pictures look like they have more space than that) and you’re talking 15-24 square feet each in an actual moving march. Estimate FAIL.

Sep 15, 2009 - 10:54 am 128. Charlie Martin:

Charlie,
http://www.Politifact.com. Right there on the front.

That would be the story that attributes the photo to Say Anything? And mentions the correction issued not long after?

Say Anything updated its original post to say that the picture was “of the wrong rally.” An accurate photo “clearly shows that (the rally) didn’t take place on the mall nearly as extensively as the image I mistakenly posted does.” Power Line took the picture down all together.

Nice try, son.

Bilgeman, I’ve got the screenshot. I also, however, found out that there was a fatal accident on the line over the weekend. it’s barely possible the accident is slowing them down. Given that the 14th came out, it seems less possible, but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt until I get a response from Metro.

Sep 15, 2009 - 11:00 am 129. Rico:

Yeah, right walking at 3 miles per hour. That is considered a brisk walking pace.

A person is considered to be walking at a moderate pace at 3 mph and walking briskly at 3.5 mph. That’s about a 20 minute mile.

Do you really believe that people in a parade would able to move that fast given that they aren’t dressed for it, many are probably out of shape, some have children with them, etc.?

Sep 15, 2009 - 11:21 am 130. Jonathan:

Oh, I should point out – claiming that the people in that picture are marching 3 mph is ludicrous too. Most of those people would maybe move 2 mph alone, and certainly below that in a crowd. Someone really has to be moving to go 3 mph, and that doesn’t happen in a crowd full of people.

So, lets assume that your other numbers are good (unlikely), and lets go with 20 square feet per marching person, 1.5 mph, and say that they fill up about 90% of the space you’re looking at, since it’s not all full most of the time. That’s being generous enough to you. And that would give you about 100,000 people. Which is a nice, generous estimate.

Sep 15, 2009 - 11:23 am 131. Charlie Martin:

and lets go with 20 square feet per marching person,

Jonathan, that’s around 4 times as much as any other source has for a crowd. So fix that and we’re back to 400,000, which is in the low end of my range but slightly more than ken’s estimate — and between 6 and 7 times what was reported.

Sep 15, 2009 - 11:37 am 132. Jonathan:

Here are some good comparative pictures:

http://www.welovedc.com/2009/09/14/912-rally-crowd-estimates-two-million/

Sep 15, 2009 - 11:41 am 133. Jonathan:

Charlie – do you understand the difference between people marching and people standing? If you are marching and taking a typical three-foot step, then you have to be taking up 9 square feet even if you are arm in arm and you hit the heels of the person in front of you with every step! It is not physically possible to be taking up only 5 square feet per person while marching. It’s going to be at least 15 square feet, and I think that 20 is a safe number.

Sep 15, 2009 - 11:47 am 134. Dave:

Bilgeman, in case you have not noticed, they have now posted the ridership numbers for Sept 12 at the DC Metro page. I cut and pasted the last week’s worth or so below:

http://www.wmata.com/rail/disruption_reports/archived_service_reports.cfm

# September 14, 2009 – Rail ridership: 704,000 Bus ridership: 450,000 (Detailed Service Information)
# September 13, 2009 – Rail ridership: 224,715 Bus ridership: 152,108 (Detailed Service Information)
# September 12, 2009 – Rail ridership: 437,624 Bus ridership: 236,347 (Detailed Service Information)
# September 11, 2009 – Rail ridership: 724,754 Bus ridership: 450,000 (Detailed Service Information)
# September 10, 2009 – Rail ridership: 748,145 Bus ridership: 450,000 (Detailed Service Information)
# September 09, 2009 – Rail ridership: 736,434 Bus ridership: 450,000 (Detailed Service Information)
# September 08, 2009 – Rail ridership: 692,263 Bus ridership: 450,000 (Detailed Service Information)
# September 07, 2009 – Rail ridership: 165,791 Bus ridership: 450,000 (Detailed Service Information)
# September 06, 2009 – Rail ridership: 237,179 Bus ridership: 152,108 (Detailed Service Information)
# September 05, 2009 – Rail ridership: 300,963 Bus ridership: 236,347 (Detailed Service Information)
# September 04, 2009 – Rail ridership: 680,988 Bus ridership: 450,000 (Detailed Service Information)

Sep 15, 2009 - 11:54 am 135. Dave:

Jonathan writes: “Oh, I should point out – claiming that the people in that picture are marching 3 mph is ludicrous too. Most of those people would maybe move 2 mph alone, and certainly below that in a crowd. Someone really has to be moving to go 3 mph, and that doesn’t happen in a crowd full of people.”

What are you talking about? 3 mph is a pretty average walking pace. Actually, an average man walks more like 3.5 mph.

http://www.bellaonline.com/articles/art20257.asp

And an average fit walking pace is more like 4 mph:

http://www.thewalkingsite.com/faq.html

Sep 15, 2009 - 11:59 am 136. Dave:

Following up my earlier comment, I suppose you mean a crowd can’t walk as fast as an individual. You may have a point. So maybe 3 mph is an upper cap on how fast a crowd can walk.

Sep 15, 2009 - 12:02 pm 137. Jonathan:

So, Obama’s inauguration led to 950,000 more riders than the same day a year before, for a crowd that Charlie says was estimated at 850,000.

Meanwhile, 9/12 leads to 74,851 more riders than the same day a year before. Hmmm….

Sep 15, 2009 - 12:10 pm 138. Jonathan:

btw – just to debunk more of your post, the organizers didn’t even have a license to use the National Mall. The majority of the protesters fit onto the Congressional grounds. So I’m not sure why you talk about the size of an area that barely had any protesters on it.

And that “people counter” would have to be clicking pretty fast, getting 90-100 people a second.

Here’s another way to think about it. You say the street is 100 feet wide, which means 30-35 people across at any given time. Looking at the video, that looks about right. So for there to be 1,000,000 people in three hours (and it’s not full the whole three hours), there would have to be more than three people going by every spot every second! I think that one person going by each spot in a second is more reasonable, and 1 person every 4 seconds would be believable if it’s a slow, shuffling crowd. We’re talking about estimates at or below 100,000 again…

Sep 15, 2009 - 12:30 pm 139. JFM:

Nice try Dave

You compare a Monday with September 12 ie a Saturday. Now when I compare with September 5 (nother Saturday) I find for one side 137,000 additional peoplre for rail alone (we also have to account for people postponing trips to Washington due to the crowds) and, unless you made amistake while trabnscribing the results I find highly suspicious that the Bus ridership is identical on 5/9 and 9/12. Stinks of data cooking to the heavens.

Also can you remind me who controls DC and DC Metro?

You see I graduated in statistics and I have forgotten more tricks about statiscal lies than people like you (Let me guess you graduated in Trolling and Primal Scream, isn’t it?) will ever learn.

Sep 15, 2009 - 12:32 pm 140. Jonathan:

Sorry, I meant to say “one person going by each spot in three seconds is more reasonable”. 1 person going by every second is still too fast unless they were jogging or something.

Sep 15, 2009 - 12:32 pm 141. Sapwolf:

I was at the March for Life which had around 250-300k. At the DC Tea Party I noticed there were WAY WAY more people. My guess is 1.0-1.2 million. However, that number may not have been at the same time given that many arrived late due to the obvious traffic congestion.

It was HUGE, trust me.

Next year, it will be even bigger.

Not one violent incident. The people were so well behaved, and it was reported that there was far less to clean up compared to the crowd at Obama’s inauguration.

Good people, good politics, good fun, and great spirit.

Sep 15, 2009 - 12:39 pm 142. Barry Soetaro:

Why should I care how many racists showed up;
I won.

Sep 15, 2009 - 12:39 pm 143. joshlbetts:

I’d like to add that our all day pass for the metro wasn’t working after the rally. The machines rejected our tickets. Was happening to quite a few people. No policemen, so we used the emergency gates to enter the rail.

On the way out of the terminal to our car, policemen were posted at the exit. We ran our cards through and it was rejected again. They asked if it was an all day pass and if it happened to us on the way to the rail. We said yes. They sent us on through the emergency exit. Happened to alot of people around us.

Sep 15, 2009 - 12:44 pm 144. Rico:

JFM,

Do you think that very many of the people going to the protest would actually ride the bus? I highly doubt it, I’m sure those folks would feel safer on the Metro.

As to the additonal 137,000 riders from the previous Saturday, don’t you also have to account for the people that were riding to the Black Family Reunion events and any other events that may have been going on?

Sep 15, 2009 - 12:44 pm 145. JL:

But the 437K number is less than normal daily ridership during a typical workweek. Why, then, did they have to shut off the streets? Why did the security guys at the metro trains halt people in batches to go up the escalators? And don’t you find it odd that the ridership leading up to the 9/12 was 736K, 748K, and 724K and then drops to 437K on the day of the march? The event was actually a three-day event, starting on Thursday. I commuted on the DC metro for years, Mon-Fri, and shutting down the roads and having people move in batches was not a daily occurrence, or even a Saturday occurrence. If it had been, then the commuters would be up in arms everyday over some ongoing transportation nightmare. Who knows? The metro numbers might be true, but it cannot explain why the streets and metros had to be managed differently when the reported numbers are less than what you’d find on a Monday. Also, interesting that 9/14 train ridership was 704K, and the prior Labor Day’s numbers were 165K (coming down from Labor Day’s weekend tourism peak numbers of 680K and 300K).

Sep 15, 2009 - 12:46 pm 146. joshlbetts:

Our all day pass quit working after the march.

We used the emergency exits and the policemen at one terminal let us through.

Happened to quite a few people.

Sep 15, 2009 - 12:55 pm 147. Jonathan:

JFM – please try and just read the link. The reason that bus ridership is identical is because the exact bus numbers do not come out for a month – it says so right on the page. You’re just looking at an estimate, based on the number of buses in operation.

And you also can’t compare to September 5th, because that was part of Labor Day weekend, which depressed commuter traffic to D.C. even more. When comparing 9/12/09 to the comparable Saturday the year before, you’ll see that there were 75,000 more rail rides. Go back to July (not August, because Congress isn’t in session in August so significantly fewer people are working) and you’ll see that around 380,000 to 410,000 people are riding the rails every Saturday. I suspect it will be about the same on September 19th.

And don’t forget that this is counting entries and exits, so it doesn’t mean 75,000 more people – if they all rode twice, it’s only 37,500.

p.s. – the idea that people delayed their trips to avoid the crowd is laughable. The vast majority of America didn’t really care that this was going on, and I’m sure it affected almost no one’s travel plans.

Sep 15, 2009 - 12:55 pm 148. JohnSo:

Excellent analysis. This represents the most explicit analysis I’ve seen. Congratulations on this.

Sep 15, 2009 - 12:56 pm 149. John:

According to Charles Johnson of Little Green Footballs all the attendance numbers being touted by “right-wing” blogs are fradulent. He claims that there were 100k people tops.

I’m not sure what’s happened to CJ but he’s taken a far left turn as of late. He seems to have dediccated his site to smearing all Tea Parties as racist, nazis, birthers and potential communists.

Sep 15, 2009 - 12:56 pm 150. NCBob:

What difference does it make? The hard leftists are going to minimize the number and their captive media are going to report what they are told. Both will claim that most of the few people attending were racist extremists, anyway. The thieves in charge have a very exact number from the Park Service and the other agencies who monitor Washington.
From America’s perspective, the evil doers now know the sense of the nation. While that makes most of us feel better, I fear that all it will accomplish is that there will be large teams of Voter Education Forces at key polling places next year. The teams will be made up of ACORNers, union thugs and Black Panthers, all carrying axe handles and carrying Department of Justice letters of marque.

Sep 15, 2009 - 12:56 pm 151. Jonathan:

Oh, great. Now conservatives will claim “but the rail passes weren’t working!” to try to defy the numbers again. LOL

Sep 15, 2009 - 12:57 pm 152. Dave:

JFM: “Nice try Dave”

I believe you meant to address Jonathon, not I.

Because I compared nothing, I merely gave the data.

Incidentally, as you brought it up … I also have degrees in statistics and also in actuarial science. Including a Ph.D. in the former.

Sep 15, 2009 - 1:00 pm 153. Jonathan:

Um, JL, there are always fewer people on a Saturday. The rail numbers for 9/9, 9/10, and 9/11 were all comparable to the year before. Go to this link: http://www.wmata.com/rail/disruption_reports/archived_service_reports.cfm

and then click on whatever day you want to compare it to the previous year.

Sep 15, 2009 - 1:04 pm 154. olddog:

Can’t someone just as the Russians or Chinese? I’m sure they have satellite photos of the white house 24/7 realtime!

Sep 15, 2009 - 1:07 pm 155. JL:

Sapwolf: I was there, too, and the crowd was overwhelming — and positive. No violence, a mass of people surprised so many were as concerned about this country’s future as they were. Reading the signs was like reading blog postings, only you got to see the faces of the people standing by their words. Fascinating.

But back to the violence point: If Americans become increasingly disgruntled, are ignored and there’s continued mockery, well, the next marches won’t be pretty. Protesters will get vocal and demonstrative and the state-directed media will have a field day snapping shots to further demean their efforts. Those in power (media included) employ all the classic techniques of the abuser: rubberstamp, demoralize, and marginalize — make the people think they are crazy, and when they blow up, calmly point out how they can’t control their feelings.

Sep 15, 2009 - 1:10 pm 156. Harrell:

Trying to come up with a reasonably accurate estimate of the number of people who were able to go to DC is an interesting exercise. But what the smart politicians will be worried about is how many were represented by those who came. I heard one lady from the area where I live who said that there were at least 15-20 people who told her beforehand that they wish they could go, but were not able. So, that lady is effect represented not just herself but another 15-20 people who would have liked to have gone, but couldn’t. I don’t think that her case is an aberration. But let’s just suppose that each person who attended represented only 10 other people who were unable to go. Suddenly, you’re talking about upwards of 20 million people.

Now if you’re a smart politician (I’m talking hypothetically here… not suggesting that such a creature actually exists), you’ve got to be asking yourself, “What percentage of these people will show up at the primaries in 2010 to vote?” And then beyond that, “What percentage will show up in the general election in 2010 to vote?” My guess is that this ain’t going away. A very large percentage, I’m guessing very close to 100%, will be at the polls. Now then, if you’re a smart politician, are you going to be dismissive of the crowd simply on the basis of how many actually showed up? I’m betting not. Not if you’re smart. You’re going to be thinking about that 20 million or more people who are now agitated, aggravated, and motivated to go to the polls to take their stand.

Sep 15, 2009 - 1:10 pm 157. JL:

John, on Charles Johnson: I agree. I wonder if someone has him by the “short and curlies.” He used to break news, now he just whines. Not his best work. Either he’s too busy to bring fresh insight, he’s carving out a new image as a contrarian to whatever’s going on at the moment, or someone’s told him to cool it and reverse his direction. Dunno. But it makes me wonder.

Sep 15, 2009 - 1:13 pm 158. Jonathan:

Dave – I’m saying that a crowd, which includes elderly people, children, people holding hands, negotiating sidewalks and road blocks and talking to each other, is not going to be walking 3 mph. Dense crowds tend to move as fast as the slower people in them. And people also tend to move slower when there are tons of people right in front of them. 3.5 mph is a strong walking speed for an adult man (try going someplace a mile away at a marching pace and see if you get there in 17 minutes), and it’s way too fast for the elderly and children, not to mention the crowd. I think 1-1.5 mph is a very safe estimate for a crowd’s walking speed.

Sep 15, 2009 - 1:16 pm 159. BurpyTurtle:

Funny how the bus ridership is nice even numbers that don’t seem to change on weekdays. They also are remarkably consistent on Saturdays and Sundays.

The Saturday rail ridership has increased by over 100,000 from the prior Saturday to the 12th, though.

Makes it appear that at least 100,000 more people took public transportation on the 12th than on the preceding week. But it is actually hard to tell much of a trend from the numbers given.

Sep 15, 2009 - 1:16 pm 160. JL:

Jonathan: You completely missed my point. I’m not surprised that there are fewer numbers. I’m not challenging the numbers (directly). I’m challenging the thresholds of stress a metro can take with those numbers. The numbers reportedly overwhelmed the metro area, with roads blocked, etc., and yet the numbers are less than a typical day in the DC metro. And DC metro manages a typical day quite well (without road blocks, etc.). That was my point, without stretching it too much further.

Sep 15, 2009 - 1:19 pm 161. JL:

Jonathan: You missed my point. I’m not surprised that there are fewer numbers. I’m not challenging the numbers (directly). I’m challenging the thresholds of stress a metro can take with those numbers. The numbers reportedly overwhelmed the metro area, with roads blocked, etc., and yet the numbers are less than a typical day in the DC metro. And DC metro manages a typical day quite well (without road blocks, etc.). That was my point, without stretching it too much further.

Sep 15, 2009 - 1:26 pm 162. Middleman:

149. John,
LGF has wised up and moved to the center, as more sensible people on the right should. Leave the far-right to the blow-hard quacks.

Sep 15, 2009 - 1:28 pm 163. Jonathan:

Hey – didn’t Charles Johnson of Little Green Footballs START Pajamas Media? And even he’s mocking your numbers (and your signs) at the 9/12 rally.

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/34672_Glenn_Beck_Claims_1.7_Million_People_at_Tea_Party

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/34669_Right_Wing_Blogs_in_Massive_Fail_Mode

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/34653_Tea_Party_Crowd_Estimate-_60-70000_People

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/34651_ABC_News_Misquoted_By_Naderite_Tea_Partier

Sep 15, 2009 - 1:44 pm 164. JL:

Middleman: Everyone is somebody’s “blow-hard quack.” Depends on where you stand. Or, in some folks’s cases, drop, roll over and beg.

Sep 15, 2009 - 1:49 pm 165. vitocorleone99:

Comparing the Metro traffic from Inauguration Day (Tuesday) with a nondescript Sunday from the prior year is far more asinine that anything that the folks trying to estimate the crowd here are doing.

I can’t say that I’m buying anything upwards of a million people. The walking pace was quite slow when compared to a solo stroll, so the 3mph bit was probably a little aggressive. That being said, the square footage per person was probably lower than some are guessing. It was damn near shoulder to shoulder through the bulk of the march.

I’ll also add the following observations, and you can take them for what they’re worth. First, that family reunion thing on the mall consisted of a bunch of nearly empty tents with five or six people inside each one. Anyone trying to use that “crowd” as some sort of mitigating factor is completely off base. If that gathering typically draws 500,000 people, then the march itself must have had seventy bazillion.

Second, if you think that the 60-70,000 figure is accurate (or even anything above ignorant), then you might want to put down the latte and head down to your local college campus next weekend. Here’s one Google Earth pic taken from a height of 3,376 feet and cropped to 290×320 pixels. http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3483/3923429385_121381aafc.jpg

Here’s also a second pic taken from a height of 3,364 feet and cropped to 290×320 pixels. http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2542/3924232990_5447f6b81e.jpg

The football stadium holds 110,000 people and, to my eye, the seating area seems to occupy roughly half the space in the picture. The corresponding area of the Capitol grounds held a relatively small portion of the body of protesters, given that they extended in either sideways direction for several hundred yards and back onto the mall even further.

Bottom line: It was a ton of people. The numbers in the hundreds of thousands seem most plausible to me.

Sep 15, 2009 - 1:51 pm 166. Jonathan:

Burpyturtle – the bus numbers won’t be accurate for a month. Read the link. Those nice, even numbers you see are exactly what you think – nice, even estimates. Only the rail numbers are exact.

J.L. – the system may have been overwhelmed at one point, even if it was under a usual weekday’s traffic, if a lot of people concentrated in one spot at one time. And still, the problems that may have existed

Look at all the other numbers. Airport traffic was normal. Hotel reservations were slightly above normal. Nothing out of the usual at all.

Then, compare that to an event that was actually big. Charlie says that Obama’s inauguration only had 850,000 people, yet there were 1.1 million entries/exits on a holiday! And even though hundreds of police were brought in from all over, not to mention the secret service, they were completely overwhelmed by the crowds:

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/story/967742.html

Sep 15, 2009 - 1:51 pm 167. Substance McGravitas:

September 12, 2009
Metrorail: 437,624
Comparable Metrorail Ridership 1 Year Ago: 362,773

Seems like that’s up a respectable amount over the weekend of last year (the comparison’s the 13th) but still way down from a normal weekday. In short, no trouble for the train system to handle.

Funny how the bus ridership is nice even numbers

They update those later.

Sep 15, 2009 - 1:53 pm 168. Seymour:

Really doesn’t matter how large the crowd was. They represent a little less than half at minimum of all citizen voters which is very much illustrative of the bigger picture. Now some might give isometrics to this statement but as long as one Party continues to summarily dismiss the other with insults as apposed to forwarding any semblance of respect it really doesn’t really matter how large this march was. Let history be our teacher here, if one party, any party with a hundred million voters continues to be relegated to the trash bin the clock is ticking which will make this march look like a neighborhood coffee klatch. Unless the parties can find some congruencies to build on, what’s next? You tell me as this is as unchartered territory I have seen in 52 years of being politically cognoscente. One thing I do know after 60 years on earth is that one doesn’t dismiss anything that has the number of 100 million attached to it. Now that would be absurd.

Sep 15, 2009 - 2:21 pm 169. Substance McGravitas:

They represent a little less than half at minimum of all citizen voters which is very much illustrative of the bigger picture.

Good Christ no they do not. Many of those people are nuts.

Sep 15, 2009 - 2:35 pm 170. uncommon sense:

One known fact-over 40,000 school buses were there. The standard school bus carries about 60 passengers. That alone would put the number above 250,000. I personally beleive the 1.75 million number seems pretty accurate. Certainly more than the phony MOOSELIMB Louis Fake Iran and his s0-called “million man march” in 1995(by the way, the ONESCUM was a community organizer for that event).

Sep 15, 2009 - 2:47 pm 171. myth buster:

Why would people from out of town, who either drove or have a chartered bus, take Metro Transit? They already have a ride from their hotel to the rally.

Sep 15, 2009 - 2:57 pm 172. Joanie:

Your figures exclude all of the buses and cars full of people stranded on the Interstates around the city who were attempting to get to the protest but were unable to due so because of all the Interstate and road closures caused by the event.

Sep 15, 2009 - 2:59 pm 173. Jonathan:

Sorry Seymour, but do you really believe that 100,000,000 Americans want themselves represented by this?

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/34267_Disgusting_Racist_of_the_Day

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/34656_Tea_Party_Leader_Supported_Racist_Image_of_Obama

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/34658_More_Scenes_From_a_Tea_Party

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/34657_No_Nazi_Imagery

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/34671_Tea_Party_Leader_Mark_Williams-_Hoist_With_His_Own_Petard

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/34668_Video-_Bad_Craziness_in_Washington_DC

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/34652_Scenes_From_a_Tea_Party

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/34648_Pro-Life_or_Pro-Death

Remember, those posts are all coming from the guy who founded this very site you’re commenting on. I don’t think 100 million americans want themselves represented by that nonsense.

Sep 15, 2009 - 3:00 pm 174. LifeTrek:

The unknown university was the University of Illinois.

Sep 15, 2009 - 3:01 pm 175. Jonathan:

Okay, Charlie, I’ve found video that conclusively disproves your numbers:

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/34668_Video-_Bad_Craziness_in_Washington_DC

First of all, note the pace. That’s not 3 mph. That’s leisurely strolling. That’s not even 1.5 mph.

Second of all, note the spacing. There’s at least 5 feet from head-to-head on the sides, and 6 to 10 feet between people’s heads front to back. You claimed 6 square feet, I guessed 20 square feet, but it’s really 30-50 square feet!

Estimate FAIL.

Sep 15, 2009 - 3:06 pm 176. mark reardon:

#163 Jonathan. In one of those links Charles says the Traffic cam pics are from 10 years ago (in fact, he mocks anyone who accepts them). If they are, the traffic cams were playing a 10 year old loop for the internet when I looked in on them from Denver that morning after seeing the mention on Instapundit.
In that vein, doesn’t Google update search choices to reflect trends as they are happening? By the time I typed the ‘a’ in Cams, the #2 Google choice was Traffic Cams Washington D.C. beneath the generic traffic cams.
I wonder how many people Googled to find a live view that morning?

Sep 15, 2009 - 3:21 pm 177. Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg:

There were hundreds of people! HUNDREDS I say!

Sep 15, 2009 - 3:24 pm 178. Joe B:

I guarantee you the NSA took a satellite image and accurately estimated the number of demonstrators, which will be kept as a classified secret on the grounds that it is a threat estimate.

Sep 15, 2009 - 3:25 pm 179. Dave:

When I gave the ridership stats above, I should have linked to this press release from January for comparison’s sake:

http://www.wmata.com/about_metro/news/PressReleaseDetail.cfm?ReleaseID=2440

It talks about ridership on the day of the inauguration, and on the top 20 weekdays:

Metrorail’s Top 20 Weekday Ridership Days
Date Ridership Event
1 01-20-09 1,120,000 Obama Inauguration
2 01-19-09 866,681 Obama inaugural events
3 07-11-08 854,638 Baseball/Women of Faith Conference
4 06-09-04 850,636 Reagan State Funeral
5 06-25-08 846,388 Smithsonian Folklife Festival/Baseball
6 07-10-08 844,530 Baseball
7 07-08-08 835,072 Baseball/Basketball
8 07-02-08 834,956 Smithsonian Folklife Festival
9 04-03-07 831,508 Cherry Blossoms/Baseball
10 06-24-08 831,464 Baseball/Basketball
11 06-20-08 829,998 Baseball/Basketball
12 04-24-08 828,973 Baseball/Basketball
13 04-17-08 828,418 Pope Visit/Soccer
14 04-11-08 828,132 Baseball/Cherry Blossoms
15 06-27-08 825,862 Smithsonian Folklife Festival/Baseball
16 06-18-08 823,516 No Event
17 07-01-08 822,931 No Event
18 04-10-06 821,283 Immigrant Rights Rally
19 06-19-08 819,979 No Event
20 06-26-08 819,722 Smithsonian Folklife Festival

Sep 15, 2009 - 3:32 pm 180. Charlie (Colorado):

Second of all, note the spacing. There’s at least 5 feet from head-to-head on the sides, and 6 to 10 feet between people’s heads front to back. You claimed 6 square feet, I guessed 20 square feet, but it’s really 30-50 square feet!

Not big on statistics, are you?

Look up (1) sample theory, and (2) averages.

By the way, Charles Johnson is mistaken: flags were at half-staff that weekend.

Sep 15, 2009 - 4:13 pm 181. Charlie (Colorado):

I guarantee you the NSA took a satellite image and accurately estimated the number of demonstrators, which will be kept as a classified secret on the grounds that it is a threat estimate.

Well, no, NSA didn’t. It would be NRO, or whatever that’s called now, I think they changed the name since I was in the business.

In any case, it was overcast and frankly the National Technical Means folks don’t waste a lot of passes over the US; those satellites are expensive and it actually does take consumables to get a particular pass unless you’re real lucky.

Sep 15, 2009 - 4:17 pm 182. Bilgeman:

#134 Dave:
“Bilgeman, in case you have not noticed, they have now posted the ridership numbers for Sept 12 at the DC Metro page. I cut and pasted the last week’s worth or so below:”

Ah, thankee, I was off-site awhile. I’m still suspicious as to why there was a delay in posting those 4 days when yesterday’s tally was up lickety-split.

Before I get into this, i should state that I am sympathetic to the TEA parties, as I understand their broad aims, but I was very highly skeptical of the “millions” numbers being bandied about, since an aide to a Democratic Congrassman had released a memo on Friday “expecting” two million people to attend.

Thise were the “marching orders” for the MSM, in my view.

I’m simply trying to get at something of an accurate number and no more than that.

Metrorail ridership for September 12th was

Rail ridership: 437,624

For the Saturday before last Saturday,(September 5th), the tally was:

Rail ridership: 300,963

and as #167. Substance McGravitas, pointed out, the nearest Saturday from one year ago was September 13th, 2008, which yielded:

Rail ridership: 362,773

Now this represents, given three September saturdays, two in this year and one in the last, of an increase on Saturday September 12th of at the very LEAST, 80, 000 people,(440k minus 360k), and at most, a bulge of 140k peaople,(440k minus the 300k from the day before).

It might be possible that 140 thousand DC Metro area residents just decided to go ride the subway on a Saturday, but I don’t THINK so. As a one-time resident of the DC area, I try to stay away from downtown when large demonstrations are about.

We could narrow this down further if we had specific station exit and time of exit tally metrics, but I don’t think Metro is going to cough up that data.

But there’s no way around the fact that there were at least, about 80 thousand people riding the subway last Saturday that cannot be otherwise explained.

And this, mind you, is ignoring the numbers of folks who got bussed in, came in from Union Station on the MARC, VRE or Amtrak trains, or (shudder) actually DROVE in.

I feel pretty confident in calling “BullSH!T!” on the MSM’s reports of how many people attended the Tea Party, based on Metro’s ridership tallies alone.

If Metro would care to release station-specific metrics, we could narrow this down further.

But like I said above, I ain’t holding my breath for THAT.

Sep 15, 2009 - 4:20 pm 183. Substance McGravitas:

Also:

Metrorail’s Top 5 Saturday Ridership Days
Date Ridership Event
1 06-08-91 786,358 Desert Storm
2 10-04-97 725,909 Promise Keepers
3 04-04-09 713,148 Cherry Blossoms/baseball/basketball/soccer
4 01-20-01 601,839 G.W. Bush Inauguration
5 07-04-98 585,354 Fourth of July celebration

Metrorail’s Top 5 Sunday Ridership Days
Date Ridership Event
1 01-18-09 616,324 Obama Inauguration activities
2 07-04-99 540,945 Fourth of July celebration
3 07-04-93 505,157 Fourth of July celebration
4 04-05-09 469,751 Cherry Blossoms/hockey
5 01-17-93 440,138 Reunion America

Sep 15, 2009 - 4:29 pm 184. Jonathan:

uncommon sense – 40,000 buses??? That would take up 384 miles of road. Exactly where were these 40,000 buses?

myth buster – how many cars do you think can park around the capital building? Yes, some people might find some way to drive there, but the majority are going to take public transit

Joanie – there were not significant numbers of people “stranded” on the freeways who could not get in. Certainly not the tens of thousands it work take to make any real difference in the numbers.

Lifetrek – exactly where did you get that info about U of I? Can you link to anything from the university that actually says what Beck claimed they said?

Mark Reardon – Are you saying that we should discount Charles because he got one thing wrong? If that’s the standard, then should we also discount every single other right-wing blog that’s posted one form of misinformation or another about this crowd, including the very blog you’re commenting on?

Sep 15, 2009 - 4:56 pm 185. PuddinHead:

I was at the March. I got there late, maybe about 1145 or so. When I drove up 14th street to park, there was a cop SUV blocking Penn ave from 14th st towards the captial. By the time I parked and walked to that spot (10 minutes), the blockade was gone and moved down several blocks. My wife and I walked fast to catch up to the crowd and did so a couple blocks after the now empty plaza (freedom plaza?). We then proceeded to the Capitol. If the crowd flowed by for 3 hours, it would have started at 0900 and lasted until about 1200 as I was bringing up the rear. Did it really start moving at 0930. I was not there, but am skeptical. That would affect some of the estimates here. Now, I am a republican, always have been and my wife and I had 3 good signs of protest. However, I want to make a reasonable estimate and I think some people are blinded by their hopes. It was a lot of people for sure, but when I went home that night and saw the 106K people at the Ohio state game, I was not sure we could have topped that. I could be wrong, only satellite or aerial photos can help. The Obama inaug was estimated at 2 million at one point, but the final revision was around 850k, so if you are comparing photos to make an estimate, use the 850k not 2million.

In the end, the absolute count was not important, it was an impressive turn out. The people who count are those in the middle like the blue dogs, and trust me, they understand there were quite enough to let them know how people back home feel. This was a big victory, whether it was 75k or 800K. Thanks to all that showed up.

FYI, the official White House count can be found here, just posted today. http://twitter.com/ObamasBrain

Sep 15, 2009 - 5:33 pm 186. Bilgeman:

#157 JL:
“I wonder if someone has him by the “short and curlies.” He used to break news, now he just whines. Not his best work. Either he’s too busy to bring fresh insight, he’s carving out a new image as a contrarian to whatever’s going on at the moment, or someone’s told him to cool it and reverse his direction. Dunno. But it makes me wonder.”

LGF breaking the Bogus TANG Memos story and supporting the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth was instrumental in defeating John Kerry.

That was enough for some very powerful people. The Bicyclist then rubbed the MSM’s nose in the fact that they had not only broadcast a bogus story, but had been duped into reporting it, and when it finally was acknowledged that they WERE forgeries, (and WHY hasn’t anyone been criminally prosecuted over this?), that pissed off a whole set of OTHER powerful people.

Fundamentally, Charles Johnson is no more than a geek in his pajamas, like the rest of us, and I think he was woefully unprepared for what street-level hardball politics would be like.

IOW, I think somebody “got to him”, maybe while he was out pedaling his bike on some California roadway, so there would be no witnesses, and now he’s their punk-bitch.

How’s about it, Charles? You want to step in here and tell me that I’m full of sh!t?

Come on in.

But you have to do it here, because I don’t read LGF since you banned me.

If I’m right, the WORST thing he could do is what he’s doing, alienating his audience and watching his sitemeter shrink, because it’s only the public’s attention that’s keeping him alive.

Once everyone stops paying him any heed, he’ll then be ripe to have himself an accident.

Sep 15, 2009 - 5:40 pm 187. PuddinHead:

Metro ridership: Excellent comparisons of Sept Saturdays and of biggest days. Very necessary for rational thought processes and estimates. Also note that the metro probably counts a two way trip as two riders since they can’t know it is same person. So if the ridership is up 100k, that is 50k more PEOPLE. Also note that I drove in to town and parked. I came in over the 14th street bridge. There was no abnormal traffic (at 1145 ish) and NO people stranded on the highway.

Sep 15, 2009 - 5:43 pm 188. Jonathan:

Bilgeman – your numbers aren’t quite that exact. First of all, they count entries/exits, which mean that many people can be double-counted if they ride more than once. Second of all, there are plenty of saturdays when more than 360,000 people ride – every Saturday in July had 380,000 to 410,000 riders. And finally, there was also the Black Family Celebration going on, which had thousands of attendees over the course of the day.

Charlie – your comment is nonsensical. There is absolutely no way you can get your numbers out of those pictures using any sampling technique whatsoever. The problem is that you used completely hypothetical densities that were easily disproven by actual pictures of the event. Massive FAIL on your attempt to be a statistical elitist there.

And you point out 1 mistake Charles made (one that I didn’t even use at all) in an apparent attempt to discredit everything he said. I’ve already pointed out 4-5 mistakes that you’ve made. So can we discredit everything that you’ve said?

Sep 15, 2009 - 5:45 pm 189. Bilgeman:

#187 Puddinhead:
“Excellent comparisons of Sept Saturdays and of biggest days. Very necessary for rational thought processes and estimates. Also note that the metro probably counts a two way trip as two riders since they can’t know it is same person. So if the ridership is up 100k, that is 50k more PEOPLE.”

That is a valid observation.

So let me back up to my posted numbers at #182 above:

“Now this represents, given three September saturdays, two in this year and one in the last, of an increase on Saturday September 12th of at the very LEAST, 80, 000 people,(440k minus 360k), and at most, a bulge of 140k peaople,(440k minus the 300k from the day before).”

So let’s halve those numbers, since we can assume that nearly everyone who came into DC, also left the same day.

We STILL end up with a bulge of between 40k and 70k people last Saturday.

And again that only counts Metrorailers.

I still call “BullSh!T” on the MSM.

(You DROVE in? Whattayou…nuts? You should know better than that!)

Sep 15, 2009 - 6:10 pm 190. goy:

@119. David S: – Proving my point regarding civility…

You didn’t make a point about civility. In fact, at this point in time, Firefox’s search function finds the word “civility” in only one post on this page: #119. And “civil” is nowhere to be found.

I’m sure ACORN has emailed the latest talking points to you, including instructions to stress “civility” per Joe Wilson’s recent outing of BHO’s lie regarding illegal alien “coverage”, but really – it’s not the universal response they led you to believe.

Oh wait – maybe you’re actually saying that I pointed out how YOUR fake apology wasn’t very “civil”. That’s actually true.

Sep 15, 2009 - 6:25 pm 191. Bilgeman:

#188 Jonathon:
“First of all, they count entries/exits, which mean that many people can be double-counted if they ride more than once.”

Which is why I posted my comment above.
And ss I’ve maintained all along, we’d know a lot more if we knew how many folks exited the stations around the Federal Triangle and the Capitol in the morning hours. But we can only go with what we’ve got.

Is what we’ve got not enough for you to question what is being asserted by the MSM?

“Second of all, there are plenty of saturdays when more than 360,000 people ride – every Saturday in July had 380,000 to 410,000 riders.”

You’re kidding me, right?
Hell-o! …DC…Independence Day? Summer Vacation? Tourist groups and families in bad T-shirts?

Let’s stick with Septembers okay? And we have to hand only 1 and 1/2 year’s worth of those.

I could pick a Saturday in February for comparison purposes, but it wouldn’t be valid would it?
So why would July a valid comparison while February would not be?

Sep 15, 2009 - 6:28 pm 192. Jonathan:

Bilgeman – your 37,000 to 70,000 number, which may well be possible, is not as accurate as you think. You can’t take two numbers for Saturdays (one of them on a Labor Day weekend, which is going to skew numbers even lower) and assume those are the whole range. Every June and July weekend this year had 380,000 to 460,000 people. So it’s possible to get over 400,000 people on the rails on a Saturday even when there’s not a big march at Capitol Hill.

Also, you’re ignoring any impact that the Black Family Celebration might have had. It didn’t look big, but over the course of the whole day it probably led to thousands of riders and possibly even tens of thousands of extra riders. Remember, that was an all-day event, so even if only 500 people showed up every half-hour you could still have 10,000 extra people on the day and 20,000 extra rides on the rail.

Sep 15, 2009 - 6:42 pm 193. Jonathan:

Bilgeman – check your facts before trying to call me out. I didn’t count Independence Day. Independence Day actually had 631,000 riders, but I left that day out because it wasn’t comparable. Good try though.

On the other hand, you DID count Labor Day weekend as if it was comparable, though year-after-year the Saturday of Labor Day weekend has 50,000 to 100,000 fewer riders than the next Saturday. Your Labor Day numbers are FURTHER off of the typical 2nd Saturday of September than my July numbers.

I believe that the 362,000 number from the previous year’s Saturday is the most accurate comparison, for obvious reasons. The number was 358,000 for that same Saturday in 2007, so we have some consistency there (and with population growth in the greater D.C. area, we could even assume that it always grows a little every year, but I’ll let you have 362,000 anyway). That means somewhere around 37,000 extra riders due to 9/12.

Sep 15, 2009 - 6:52 pm 194. Dan:

First of all, the people to ask about how many people were there are the guys who empty the port-a-johns. Conservative or liberal, black or white, Democrat or Republican, it all comes out the same.

Since their revenue is based on number of units, but at least part of their costs are based on volume, it’s in their interest to try to match the number of units to the size of the crowd. If they fill a few units to overflowing they make less profit than if they have a whole bunch of units half-full.

If the organizers planned for 50,000, these guys will know by how much that number was exceeded, and likely how many people were in each of the areas occupied by the various groups being discussed.

Secondly, the numbers reported for ridership on the public transportation networks are likely carp for this study. IN order to demonstrate their relevance, they have every incentive to make their ridership numbers look as high as possible. Therefore they often consider a rider to be each time a person enters a vehicle. This means that a person who goes to work and back home on a bus and transfers once can be counted as up to 20 riders in a week. this is further complicated here if anyone happened to take a bus to a Metro station; here they would be counted in both sets.

Sep 15, 2009 - 9:39 pm 195. Wolla Dalbo:

This high resolution panoramic image, shot from the top of the U.S. Capitol building (see http://iowntheworld.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/capitol-view-lo-res.jpg) documents the true size and extent of the crowd at the 9/12 march on Washington.

Sep 16, 2009 - 11:23 am 196. Wolla Dalbo:

The link above doesn’t seem to be working. Try this link and then click on the image (http://iowntheworld.com/blog/?p=6500 ).

Sep 16, 2009 - 11:28 am 197. Paul -Indiana:

#31. What’s a meter?

Sep 16, 2009 - 1:17 pm 198. Substance McGravitas:

196. Wolla Dalbo:

That’s not that big a crowd.

Sep 16, 2009 - 4:58 pm 199. Rob - New York:

I was at the 912 DC march and photographed the helicopter that circled overhead the Capitol. My photo clearly shows the helo is “Eagle 1″ which is operated by the U.S. Park Police.

A Capitol Guard told me that the helo is routinely flown to perform estimates of crowd size. The Park Service is forbidden by Congress to release the information to the public, but clearly they still fly these missions.

So, why do you think this is done and who do you think is receiving the information? Washington politicians are painfully aware of the massive size of this turnout and that’s what really counts.

Sep 16, 2009 - 7:27 pm 200. Wolla Dalbo:

198. Substance McGravitas- I was in the crowd marching down Pennsylvania Ave. to the Capital, then part of the crowd on the Capitol Lawn, and—since I was aware of the likely “problems” about crowd size estimates–I also walked up and down Capitol Hill and onto the Mall and through the crowd, so that I got a good idea of its extent and density.

Note that a count taken from a fixed position along the Pennsylvania Ave. route alone logged 450,000 people passing that point, and this does not at all count the people traveling to the Capitol using Maryland Ave., Independence and Constitution Avenues and coming from various Metro stops in and around the Mall and Capitol Hill, who I observed and who can be seen streaming toward Capitol Hill in the picture.

If you really look at the panoramic picture, you will see that not only are the various sections of the Capital Lawn filled, but so is the wide circular street—East Capitol Circle– below the Capitol, so is the entire perimeter of the Reflecting Pool–several deep, and down past Third Street on the Mall—all this I observed myself by 12:30 or so, and the main event was not to start until 1:00 P.M. Moreover, from the picture it can also be seen that the feeder streets leading up to the Capitol—Independence and Constitution Avenues and Maryland and Pennsylvania Avenues–were jammed with people too.

And all the while I was observing, more and more people streamed into the Capital Hill & Mall areas from all directions. When I left to go home on Metro, Metro trains were still disgorging people with signs, who were heading for Capitol Hill.

Sep 16, 2009 - 9:57 pm 201. DKF:

Just using the number of people marching down Pennsylvania Ave is also incomplete.

We were towards the front of the march and when we arrived at the Capitol Bldg — the area had already filled … police told us that people were waiting there early in the morning to get prime seating — that is where the 40-65,000 number came from…used by media.

additionally, people were streaming in and out, all day, from all directions…buses were turned away.

We also talked to folks, arriving late on buses, were turned away from the area — and could not even get off the bus… they got out elsewhere because of over crowding.

Also, talked to others that evening in DC hotel, they marched to the Capitol Bldg and decided to just set out on foot to see DC –as thetr first time there…said there were so many others do the same…for awhile, thought it was another march near the memorials…signs and all.

The POTUS helicopter flew over — Barry might have photos…probably would now use as a dartboard of he did…or give to “Marxine” Waters so she could try and identify all of us….

Sep 16, 2009 - 9:58 pm 202. Rob - New York:

I will confirmed Wolla Dalbo’s observations of the crowd as I did the same thing and photographed everything that I witnessed.

One last point – I rode into DC on the Metro Blue line from Franconia-Springfield. When we arrived at Federal Triangle the station was so overwhelmed with people that the DC Police opened the turnstyles in a frantic attempt to clear the platform.

The point is that because no fare cards were collected, the Metro Ridership data posted here by others is completely meaningless.

Sep 17, 2009 - 5:34 am 203. Baseball Mike:

Your “estimate” of the width of Penn Ave is a bit disconcerting…

First of all — why don’t you just call someone up and have them walk down there with a tape measure?

Second of all — at 6 lanes, with an approximate width of 10.5 ft per lane — you get only 65 ft wide, so you’re 100 ft is vastly *over* estimating the crowd (your 500k becomes more like 312.5k).

Third — re-read the USA Today article (or whatever other source you choose, here’s the link: http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2009-01-19-crowd_N.htm) to get the Park Service methodology:

“Average density is one person per 5 square feet. A tightly packed crowd has a density of one person per 2.5 square feet”

That’s how they estimate the number of people on the mall:

“If the National Mall is densely packed from Third Street to the Washington Monument, and if the area from the monument to the Lincoln Memorial has an average density, the space could contain 1.5 million people”

But the most important point of the rally is being lost in all this inane bickering:

In the end it was a large rally. It was also very unusual for there to be a large group of conservatives rally in DC.

It was an important occasion, but there should be a lot *less* emphasis on attempting to estimate the size and more emphasis on the message that was delivered and the outcome that is desired.

Sep 17, 2009 - 7:42 am 204. Substance McGravitas:

In the end it was a large rally. It was also very unusual for there to be a large group of conservatives rally in DC.

Were there conservatives? How many as opposed to the out-and-out loons? Any estimates on the number of rational people there?

Sep 17, 2009 - 11:25 am 205. Hopeington:

In the end, what does it matter how many there were? All they’re protesting is the lies and misinformation they’ve been told, not real issues, so who cares what they do? Don’t get me wrong, I find these folks to be quite entertaining.

And Substance McGravitas, the interviews by the guys at New Left Media will allow you to get an estimate on the number of rational people that were there….LOL….
I would estimate not many, but that’s just me being czarcastic. (I’m sure you’ve seen it) http://www.youtube.com/user/NewLeftMedia

Sep 19, 2009 - 9:17 pm 206. deathbymedia:

I certainly did not use any of the methods discussed in this blog. I devised my own methodology and laid it out on my recent post — you can view it here: http://deathbymedia.wordpress.com/2009/09/22/912-washington-dc-tea-party-rally-crowd-estimation/

I used as many resources (pictures and clips) to justify my calculations and welcome anyone to participate in having it refined.

Sep 22, 2009 - 6:11 pm 207. MONKEY:

WHO CARES ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE RALLY! IS THAT ALL YOU PEOPLE DO TALK ABOUT BORING NON-IMPORTANT SUBJECTS

Oct 1, 2009 - 3:51 am 208. MickyDee:

deathbymedia, I salute your hard work. Good job!

Oct 1, 2009 - 8:45 am