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In Today’s Iraq, the Times Are Constantly Changing
What you thought you knew about Iraq is probably out of date.
Whatever your views of the War in Iraq, if they are based on information more than six months old they are probably outdated. Much has changed just since March when Iraqi Army forces successfully attacked Shia extremists in Basra and the Sadr City section of Baghdad. I arrived in Baghdad while those operations were underway and having just returned home, would like to compare some old truths with the new reality in Iraq.
Old Truth: Iraq is in the midst of a civil war
Ethno-sectarian violence (ESV) — defined as the deliberate targeting of victims from one ethnic or sectarian group by a different group — was at its height in late 2006 when there were as many as 2,000 sectarian killings every month. In Baghdad alone there were fifty such murders a day. Since then, ESV killings have plummeted. The surge alone was responsible for significant success in reducing these murders. From an average of about a thousand a month during the spring and summer of 2007 when the surge began, ESV killings fell to about 200 a month during late 2007 and early 2008. Since May the number of deaths has fallen again, averaging fewer than 50 a month for the last four months. The new reality is, that if Iraq was ever in a civil war between its different ethnic and sectarian factions, it isn’t now.
Old Truth: The Iraqi government is unable to secure its own country
At the beginning of 2008 the only provinces where Iraqis were responsible for their own security were the Kurdish ones in the north — all three of which have enjoyed a special level of autonomy essentially since 1992 — and a few unanimously Shia states in the south of Iraq. No Sunni-majority province and none of the mixed provinces had yet been the recipient of a transfer of authority from the Coalition to the Iraqis themselves. By March of 2008 even those early gains appeared in doubt as long simmering tensions in Basra erupted when Iraqi forces attempted to impose control there. Since then, and most notably, the former al-Qaeda stronghold of Anbar has been returned to provincial control. Meanwhile, two mixed provinces, Babil and Wasit, are projected to transition to Iraqi control next month.
More significant is the fact that Iraqis have been successful maintaining security in the provinces they already control. The Basra operation in March, which for the first couple weeks looked like it could result in an Iraqi defeat, in fact turned out splendidly. Thirty-thousand Iraqis backed by only 800 American Marines fought to oust Jaish al Mahdi, essentially a Shia mafia, which had such a grip on Basrah that even British diplomats had been afraid to step foot in the city for which they had oversight. Today Basrawis “talk about being able to enjoy family picnics … and late-night dinners at restaurants. Women are able to wear brightly colored head scarves and show their faces instead of being fully covered in black robes.”
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Army Reservist Bob Krumm returned in September after being assigned as an operations analyst on the staff of Multi-National Corps-Iraq in Baghdad. His views and opinions are his own. Bob writes at Bob Krumm.com
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44 Comments
1. jvon:Exciting developments. You’d think news like this would get covered by the commercial purveyors of “news”, but I don’t hear a word about Iraq these days.
Oct 12, 2008 - 2:13 am 2. DoktorNo:Good news, but are these positive developments long-termed and sustainable?
Oct 12, 2008 - 2:38 am 3. Typewriter King:Baghdad authorities are so confident that they’re taking the blast wall (Bremer walls?) down across the city.
The Air Force still lacks operational combat planes, though.
Oct 12, 2008 - 3:40 am 4. vivo:Good news! Time to pull out the fluff and leave a well protected embassy and a few low-key strategic bases.
Oct 12, 2008 - 4:34 am 5. john from cinncinati:welcome home Bob.
Oct 12, 2008 - 4:39 am 6. Walls come tumbling down | Think Forward:Does George W Bush get credit for this or will the next president Claim it as a rewritten history lesson?
“when i went over there during my campaign, i spoke to the Iraqi president and i implemented my plan to end this war and so i therefor am completely satisfied that i have accomplished my goals, yes history will show i had the full credit for bringing our troops home”. wake up john you’re having a nightmare…
i could tell it was different. the War news would get a complete full page in the newspaper. now it only gets a story here or a story there. the transfer of operational control of Anbar got an oh by the way storyline.
[...] Old truth/New truth. SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: “Walls come tumbling down”, url: [...]
Oct 12, 2008 - 4:55 am 7. TomJW:Great news. I honestly thought the people of Iraq had it in them much earlier. Back when their army and police recruits were constantly being attacked and killed, it was a positive sign that Iraqis kept coming forward to fill those positions. I hope it only takes a year or two for them to be able to go forward on their own, with us having bases in Iraq.
Oct 12, 2008 - 4:57 am 8. schnargley:One of our true heroes, a true leader for the new millenium, a strong, clear voice to be heard in these trying times, Sen. Harry Reid, boldly told the real truth:
“And as long as we follow the President’s path in Iraq, the war is lost. But there is still a chance to change course — and we must change course.”
There is a man emerging from the dark horizon who will bring about the “change of course” the change we need, a man America needs at this dark hour, a man much like Harry Reid, only better, who will love and embrace our troops and support them even as they come home in disgrace and defeat. Barack Obama understands that we need a change, that we need a new America, a new attitude, a more humble one, as he said in the Rick Warren interview, an America that doesn’t think it’s “all that and then some.” One where, like Michelle Obama boldly stated, we don’t have to proud of or to prove anything anymore. A change of course. A change we need.
I am Barack Obama and I approve this message.
Oct 12, 2008 - 5:19 am 9. BobKrumm.com » Iraq has changed:[...] have a report on some of what I saw in Iraq over at Pajamas Media. Whatever your views of the War in Iraq, if they are based on information more than six months old [...]
Oct 12, 2008 - 5:54 am 10. PoliGazette » The Situation in Iraq:[...] Krumm traveled to Iraq and wrote an article about his experiences for Pajamas Media. It became quite an interesting article, in which the [...]
Oct 12, 2008 - 6:00 am 11. 888:With a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) nearing, we may finally be able to see a stable, peaceful, secure and prosperous Iraq, alongside our other important allies there, Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi, UAE, Kuwait and Israel. It will certainly change the dynamics of the entire region.
Almost 60 years after WWII and the Korean Conflict, American forces are still in Germany, Japan and Korea — not as liberators or occupiers, but as friends who help friends. I see the same relationship with Iraq 60 years from now. George Bush, Tony Blair, former Spain prime minister, Jose Maria Aznar and Portuguese prime minister Jose Manuel Barosso, are the architects and the visionaries who should get all the credit for this strategic triumph.
Oct 12, 2008 - 6:38 am 12. Eric:Bob,
Oct 12, 2008 - 6:49 am 13. In Today’s Iraq, the Times Are Constantly Changing | PoliticsMuch.com:You wrote “…,we are now in the final phase.”
Let me suggest an addendum to that statement:
“…, of Tehran’s long campaign to eject the United States, dominate the political process in Baghdad, and so secure it interests in Iraq”.
The only prayer we have to reverse this tide is the very Iraqi nationalism embodied in Muqtada al Sadr and derided by Senator Biden (whose perspectives I normally like) – that we sent running for the exits with the happy assistance of the ISCI and the Badr Corps.
When are we going to wake up?
Your article does not help.
Insightful (fully informed) analysis like that of Reidar Visser, however, provides quite the corrective. I recommend you visit his site and take in a bit of the timely knowledge offered there.
http://historiae.org/index.asp
Email me if you have a response – we’re on the same team btw.
Cheers!
Eric
[...] orginally posted at PajamasMedia.com. We claim no responsibility for this content. Please click on the link above to read and comment on [...]
Oct 12, 2008 - 7:38 am 14. Osama Hussein:You must elect president Obama and we will elect Muqtada al Sadr, and together with Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Il the world will be a better place.
Oct 12, 2008 - 8:57 am 15. Marc Malone:Eric – Whoa! Al Sadr? Are you kidding me? The big problem to overcome is the chance of renewed sectarian violence. Were it not for that, we could draw down in a hurry. The worry is that the Shia majority will attack the Sunni minority. That’s becoming less and less likely now, as power-sharing arrangements come into place, but it’s still out there. Somehow, I don’t see Al Sadr being one of those models of restraint and power-sharing.
Of course, I could be wrong about all this. Getting info from the News Black Hole called Iraq requires real work! God forbid the MSM should ever show a Bush/McCain policy succeeding.
Oct 12, 2008 - 10:43 am 16. seguin:Mookie Al Sadr? The guy who ran to Iran the minute the heat was on? The guy who had IRGC train Mahdi Army Special groups?
That Mookie? Iraqi NAtionalist? Don’t think so.
Oct 12, 2008 - 11:28 am 17. sfcmac:HOOAH! Great article and update, Bob. See what happens? The MSM coverage of the GWOT is directly proportionate to our success. That’s why its disappeared from the headlines of the New York Slimes.
Oct 12, 2008 - 12:51 pm 18. UnmooredLefty:Seriously, Eric, go back on your meds. You may not notice the effect, but others do.
Oct 12, 2008 - 1:14 pm 19. Chuck Simmins:al Sadr has far lees pull in Iraq than the West credits him with. The Iraqis know that his last two revolts were orchestrated from Iran and that he does not dare to return to Iraq for fear of arrest.
The Shia still remain as formidable and in control, and much of their effort is also vetted by Iran. for now, they have chosen a peaceful solution to Iraq’s problems. The more time that passes, the less likely it is that Iranian influence will grow, and it is in fact lessening.
The Kurdish areas are the most worrisome. They have been run for the last two decades by family oligarchies which were democratic in comparison to Saddam’s thuggocracy. It is becoming apparent that the new Iraq may be more democratic than Kurdistan and that the Kurds may be the next real problem that the new nation confronts.
Oct 12, 2008 - 1:26 pm 20. Matty-J:MOOKIE!!!!
You’re holding up MOOKIE the booger-eating moron, as the linchpin of an Iraqi nationalism?!?! MOOKIE!!!! OH MY GOD!!! Who the attacked JAM in Basra? Wasn’t MOOKIE, you idiot!! It was Maliki, who normally doesn’t seem to have the guts of a mouse. Mookie is in Iran, he’s owned by Iran, he takes his direction from Iran. Wow. Mookie.
You’re not on MY side! MY side has a working brain!
Oct 12, 2008 - 1:34 pm 21. Kathy L.:If McCain wins,we will stay in Iraq until we can leave in victory and with honor. Obama will cut and run. Obama will cut our national defense, undercut our military forces, leave us open to another attack. Don’t forget: Obama didn’t visit our wounded troops in the hospital in Germany because he couldn’t take his entourage and turn it into a photo op. He is a shallow, celebrity worshiping, terrorist sympathizing liberal. Please don’t give this guy and his radical friends the key to the White House. And Joe Biden wanted to chop Iraq into 3 pieces. What a crock !!
Oct 12, 2008 - 2:07 pm 22. 888:I forgot to add the distinguished former Australian prime minister, John Howard to the following courageous individuals — sorry about that. “George Bush, Tony Blair, former Spain prime minister, Jose Maria Aznar and Portuguese prime minister Jose Manuel Barosso, are the architects and the visionaries who should get all the credit for this strategic triumph.”
I just watched John Howard on Pajamas TV, and he’s still impressive.
Oct 12, 2008 - 2:54 pm 23. Patterson:“Senator Biden (whose perspectives I normally like)”
I had to stop reading your post after I noticed that. L-O-FU**ING-L.
Oct 12, 2008 - 4:02 pm 24. MSM Loses Interest When American Troops Succeed « The Foxhole:[...] http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/in-todays-iraq-the-times-are-constantly-changing/ [...]
Oct 12, 2008 - 4:31 pm 25. John Blake:Harry Truman: Victory over Japanese Imperialism; Berlin Airlift, Marshal Plan, Greek civil war, Korea.
GWB: Afghanistan, Iraqi rejuvenation; Iran/Pakistan/Syria holding actions; Coalition ties with major Western European powers.
Neither Truman nor GWB are accorded much esteem for their domestic policies (cf: Reagan), but in terms of geopolitical accomplishments and national defense, 21st Century America owes both a debt of immense gratitude. As glowering leftists slink away, historical truth will eventually loom undeniable.
Absent a feckless, even subversive electoral outcome this November, the U.S. will have dodged a historical (Gore/Kerry) bullet once again.
Oct 12, 2008 - 6:43 pm 26. Stan in Sugar Land:In my opinion
Oct 12, 2008 - 7:47 pm 27. vivo:1) The Dems are responsible for at least 50% of the American and Iraqi deaths, because the Dems gave hope to the bad guys and the dems indicated they wanted defeat and constantly waved the white flag of surrender.
2)The One’s, yea that one, comments about invading Pakistan are directly responsible for most of the chaos there. Can you imagine when this naive fool is president. May
God protect my beloved Republic!
Kathy L. Oct 12, 2008 – 2:07 pm:
“If McCain wins,we will stay in Iraq until we can leave in victory and with honor.”
Define “victory”.
Who cares about “honor”? This mess was never honorable.
Just keep wasting billions and billions until you get your “victory” and your “honor”. BS.
Oct 12, 2008 - 8:21 pm 28. john from cinncinati:vivo: Victory is when they stop fighting us. i can’t explain honor to you.
Oct 12, 2008 - 10:34 pm 29. BMoon:I don’t think he’ll get ‘victory’ either. Both concepts are waay beyong his subtext.
Oct 13, 2008 - 12:00 am 30. braininahat:Obama may not be a sleeper cell himself, but almost everything he advocates is consistent with brining America to ruin, either with his foreign policy or his socialist/radical policies at home.
I’m still waiting for the MSM, DNC, or (most likely) the Supreme Court to finally demand that Obama produce his birth certificate. It’s pathetic that this is still an issue. Why? Because nobody vetted Obama.
Oct 13, 2008 - 12:27 am 31. Dave Surls:‘Who cares about “honor”?’
No lefty I ever met.
Oct 13, 2008 - 12:32 am 32. wGraves:Well, yes, winning in Iraq is costing a lot. But not as much as losing in Iraq would. Some of these guys are probably too old to join the scouts. In Pity. In military life, honor becomes a necessity. If you double cross your brother soldier, you will just succeed in getting both of you killed. So, as a practical matter, dishonor isn’t tolerated. In civilian life, well, you could view the little hiccups we’re having in the housing and financial markets as a result of a crisis of honor. Too many of our citizens made commitments with no intention of keeping them. Unfortunately, that includes some congressmen.
Oct 13, 2008 - 12:54 am 33. BigAl:Aw shucks. Nothing left for the media to do other than stick it to the returning GIs. Well, they did a good job of it in the 1970s didn’t they?
Oct 13, 2008 - 3:06 am 34. Kafir:vivo: Victory in Iraq means that the Iraqi government is a stable democracy with a few elections under its belt and a set of security forces that are able to defend it from all threats, foreign and domestic and that Iraq has an expanding economy.
Since when has liberating people from a dictator not been honorable?
The bombing of Dresden was horrific but it was part of the task necessary to defeat Hitler. Was the defeat of Hitler not honorable?
Oct 13, 2008 - 5:02 am 35. Terry Gain:Victory in Iraq is also the war’s best kept secret. Al Qaeda was defeated – and not just at the hands of American forces but by Iraqis fighting alongside Americans. And the defeat was not just a military defeat. As a result of their tactics of killing innocent Iraqis in an attempt to drive the United States out of Iraq, al Qaeda’s reputation among Muslims has been signficantly diminished.
Victory is also that the stalinist dictator has been removed from office and the country is no longer harboring or training terrorists.
The real intelligence failure is not understanding that Saddam would have renewed his WMD programs the moment sanctions ended and the world turned its back on him.
Oct 13, 2008 - 6:37 am 36. JSmith:Great to see this kind of info reported. When I was in Iraq (18 months there), good news there was ignored by the US/world media and what was reported was (in every case I investigated in 4 provinces) not factual (regardless of the source) — we routinely asked ourselves if there were TWO Iraqs going through a war. My sources in Iraq confirm the report given here and more — Iraq is undoubtedly on the mend.
Part of the problem is that it appears the mission of the press has changed: It used to be merely to report the news. Liked it in the those days. Nowadays, its role seems to be to bring down the President, using either facts or fiction manufactured to fit the story they want to tell.
Oct 13, 2008 - 11:30 am 37. Marc Malone:It is becoming clear that Iraq is well on its way to becoming the great power of the Mideast, and the Iraqis are getting a sense of that, too. It’s the Tree of Liberty thing.
Oct 14, 2008 - 3:43 am 38. Eric:Muqtada “the poor man’s Iraqi nationalist.”
Oct 14, 2008 - 3:52 pm 39. BobKrumm.com » Lesley Stahl in Baghdad:Yes, he’s greasy. Yes, he personally ordered US service members killed. Yes, he’s currently in the pay of Tehran.
But thatz really not the point now, is it?
At issue is whether or not we leave Iraq in the hands of Iranian puppets or not, capeche?
Accomplishing that goal, at this late date will require working with a devil or two I’m afraid.
Still, this ain’t no Vietnam – we cannot afford idealism or the concept of American exceptionalism to rule the day, too much at stake here fellas.
“First denial, then anger, bargaining, depression, and finally acceptance.”
[...] live. The battle by American forces against Jaish al Mahdi in the southern quarter of Sadr City was really as effective as this report points out. Even better was that when the Iraqis themselves moved into the [...]
Oct 14, 2008 - 7:40 pm 40. Eric:Well there you go, “it’s over”, if Lesley Stahl says it, “we’ve won”. The ISCI will now permit Maliki to hold free and fair elections throughout the country, and democracry will reign supreme.
Oct 15, 2008 - 5:08 am 41. Britt:Is that really the best you can do Bob?
When are you going to stop confusing “quiet” for “quietism”. These bastards are laying low, and forcing Muqtada to do the same UNTIL WE LEAVE.
Care to venture into Sadr City, Maysan or Basrah with a “I Love the Central Govt” tee shirt – the Sadrists would tear you APART.
The place is a boiling cauldron, set on simmer.
No amount of western media reporting or “sunnyside of the street” conjecturing is going to change that.
Regrets.
This is a great article, and it is a shame we don’t hear more news coming from Iraq. It does seem like no one talks about it anymore. There is one site – iraqstatusreport.com that keeps tracks of articles like these which is pretty good on giving up to date information specifically on Iraq.
Oct 15, 2008 - 11:46 am 42. Eric:Last call:
Oct 15, 2008 - 5:06 pm 43. 'Blackwater' trainees fighting NATO - U.S. Politics Online: A Political Discussion Forum:New U.S. intelligence report warns ‘victory’ not certain in Iraq
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/53605.html
[...] Pajamas Media » In Today’s Iraq, the Times Are Constantly Changing Whatever your views of the War in Iraq, if they are based on information more than six months old they are probably outdated. Much has changed just since March when Iraqi Army forces successfully attacked Shia extremists in Basra and the Sadr City section of Baghdad. I arrived in Baghdad while those operations were underway and having just returned home, would like to compare some old truths with the new reality in Iraq. Old Truth: Iraq is in the midst of a civil war Ethno-sectarian violence (ESV)
Oct 18, 2008 - 11:25 am 44. BobKrumm.com » NRWC:[...] booked to address the current situation in Iraq. My remarks will be similar to what I wrote for Pajamas Media last month. However, I’m sure that the subject of the election and the Republican [...]
Nov 12, 2008 - 5:43 am