In Focus: Endorsements Don’t Matter
No, (West) Virginia, political endorsements are not effective, argues Michael Weiss, who notices how badly the big-name kingmakers failed to deliver for their preferred candidates on Super Tuesday.
If last night proved one thing in national politics, it is that marquee endorsements are meaningless. The Kennedy family’s seemingly permanent blemish on the Massachusetts landscape was not enough to secure Barack Obama the state, and John Kerry was about as galvanizing as a booster as he was as a presidential contender.
I very much doubt that Al Gore or John Edwards — both of whom are readying to declare for Obama, according to my old boss, Jewcy editor Tahl Raz — could further tilt the electorate one way or the other. For one thing, Edwards’ constituency of white male voters already seems to be going Obama’s way without having to be told to do so.
Likewise, Arnold Schwarzenegger’s backing of John McCain was both expected and indecisive-both pols have an easy foothold with moderate Republicans in California. McCain’s easy meal of the liberal East Coast only underscores his long-standing reputation as a self-critical conservative; his late alliance with Rudolph Giuliani was negligible since the New York mayor had been polling poorly in the tri-state area as late as the Florida primary. New Yorkers, at least, like the fact that McCain angers the conservative “base” on a variety of issues.
Interestingly, the great failure of vicarious influence last night belonged to Oprah Winfrey. The chat show Gorgon can send a middlebrow novel to the top of the bestsellers list but she is still unable to dislodge Hillary’s command of middle-aged white women – Oprah’s largest television demographic. Clinton took 59% of this block as against Obama’s 35%. (In Massachusetts, where women make up 50% of the electorate, Hillary won them over by a 2-to-1 margin).
We also saw how ineffectual the loudmouth conservative pundits were in advancing the now all-but-deceased candidacy of Mitt Romney. Will Rush Limbaugh, Laura Ingraham, Ann Coulter and Sean Hannity really back Clinton over McCain, or was that just a cynical ploy to scare movement wingers into backing Romney? (Slightly off-topic question: if McCain continues to be billed as the “insurgent” candidate, and apoplectic conservatives vow to become “suicide voters,” how can the Republican Party possibly continue its rhetorical supremacy in the war against Islamofascism?)
Mike Huckabee’s impressive gains in the South had at least as much to do with anti-Romney sentiment as they did with evangelical affinities. His eventual withdrawal from the race will almost certainly augur well for McCain: the two men openly admire each other (rumors of a joint ticket are already running high) and McCain’s military pedigree owed to his close second-place returns in all of the Southern states Huckabee gobbled up. Huckabee’s endorsement of McCain is practically a fait accompli, but ultimately unnecessary as well because if the GOP holds out any hope for gaining the White House next year, it will have to rally around its nominee the way Democrats vow to rally around theirs, whoever he or she may be.
Marty Peretz is flummoxed by the Massachusetts surprise: “I can’t understand why Teddy’s enthusiasm for Obama didn’t produce more strength at the polling booths. John F. Kerry support didn’t register, mostly because he himself doesn’t register with the electorate any more any way. There is some primary opposition already announced. But I don’t recognize the candidate’s name. So Kerry may just saunter into office again.”
Ross Douthat wonders who the alternative to McCain is to James Dobson: “Dobson conspicuously didn’t endorse Mitt Romney; indeed, the entire statement more or less assumes a McCain victory, and strikes a note of near-elegiac wistfulness rather than defiance. (Insert your “evangelicals won’t vote for Mormons” speculation here.)”
Richilieu at the Weekly Standard notes: “Lots of talk in the media about McCain vs. The Mighty Wombats of Talk Radio. Ask President Tancredo about that one. The talkers can raise an issue to prominence, they can entertain, but they do not really deliver actual votes. Sorry Rush. Defeated Senate schemer Rick Santorum now campaigning for Mitt with a way-over-the-top robocall calling McCain nuts. A cheap shot from a prickly guy; a lot of people in GOP politics miss Santorum’s voting record in DC, but very few miss him.”
And proof that movement conservatism’s antipathy towards McCain will backfire? ThinkProgress cites approvingly Pat Buchanan’s claim that if elected John McCain would “make Cheney look like Gandhi.”
Michael Weiss is the New York Editor of Pajamas Media. His blog is Snarksmith.
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5 Comments
1. John Samford:Endorsements are a form of what is known as the ‘authority close’. It has always been considered a ‘weak’ close, not being able to seal the deal right then and there. It is helpful when combined with the ‘lost puppy’ close.
Feb 6, 2008 - 11:07 am 2. Edmund Jenks (MAXINE):The ‘lost puppy’ close isn’t very good with politicians. Once they are elected, all the buyers remorse in the world won’t help the voter. Politics has a built in ‘no returns’ policy.
Endorsements are something the media uses to fill airspace. No hard evidence that they matter at all.
When was the last time a voter told an exit pollster; “I voted for Senator Blowhard because Senator Handinmypocket told me to.”
Politics is an art, not a science. It doesn’t matter how many credit hours of PolySci you take. When you press a ‘political scientist’ for evidence to support their theories, they either change the subject or trot out a bogus study.
Only two proven facts in politics;
1.) if their lips are moving, they are lying.
2.) your new representative will steal more then your old representative.
This just in – Republican “Pro-Choice” group endorses John McCain!
The Republicans for Choice Political Action Committee has endorsed John McCain (R-Ariz.), saying he is the best candidate now that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is out of the presidential race.
Boy, this sounds like an oxymoron – We know that the Republicans want to have a “Big Tent” but isn’t this a tent pole too far?
Feb 6, 2008 - 11:08 am 3. callyhoppin:Were you actually paid for writing this article? Endorsements don’t matter?
Perhaps you joined in on the race yesterday. If not, you might have realized that Clinton was winning in polls by as much as 20% in states that she actually lost, rather than failing to notice that the endorsements and Obama momentum actually lifted him to win many more states than Hillary.
In fact, that momentum, along with Gore and Edward’s endorsements, are what will finally bury her sham of a political career.
Feb 6, 2008 - 11:19 am 4. progressoverpeace:I have to respectfully disagree. Some marquee endorsements matter greatly – except that the endorsement generally speaks more about the endorser than anything else. For instance, every time someone endorses McCain I put that person on my idiot list. I pay very close attention to people endorsing McCain, since that is a clear sign of their lack of competency and/or intellectual dishonesty.
I don’t know about other people, but I will not forget the folks who are endorsing McCain.
Feb 6, 2008 - 11:38 am 5. AJ:Indeed. In fact, when bozos like Oprah et al endorse you, sentient folks think it is a BAD thing. Good job, Weiss.
Organizations, however, do matter. James Dobson, who I, unlike most Jews in America, really respect and admire, is someone whose endorsement matters.
Feb 6, 2008 - 11:40 am