Iran Launches Preemptive War Against July 9 Protests
Thursday marks the ten-year anniversary of the 1999 student uprising — and the mullahs don't want to see a repeat. (Also read Michael Ledeen: "The 9th of July, the 18th of Tir")
The Iranian people are adapting to these new conditions. They are shouting “Allah Akbar!” on rooftops at night and holding silent, candlelight vigils rather than organizing into large masses. On July 2, they began “political traffic,” where for a few hours Iranians drove in the streets to cause jams. This shows the lengths to which the Iranians are willing to go to express themselves in any way possible.
The split among the religious elite is going to provide additional momentum for the protests that will emerge on July 9 and in the days thereafter, cracking the very theological foundations the regime justifies its existence upon. The Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qom, described by the New York Times as “the most important group of religious leaders in Iran,” has dismissed the election results. Following this announcement, the party of Rafsanjani, former president and current chairman of the Assembly of Experts, which chooses and dismisses the supreme leader, has officially stated its position that the elections were fraudulent.
Even when faced with this potentially fatal rebuke from religious leaders, the regime is hunkering down rather than offering any form of concession. Those that favor the general preservation of the theocratic nature of the regime but oppose Khamenei and Ahmadinejad personally for their transgressions and those that favor democratic transformation will provide a sandwiching effect from which no unpopular figurehead can survive indefinitely.
The reaction of the regime has been to become even more brutal, guaranteeing its inevitable fall but delaying the time when that day arrives. The regime appears to be gearing up to arrest Mousavi, an immensely provocative move. One of Khamenei’s closest advisors has labeled Mousavi an American agent, an offense frequently used to justify arrest. The Basiji has also formally asked for his prosecution, citing nine alleged violations, including “disturbing the nation’s security.”
Michael Ledeen writes that Khamenei has ordered that all demonstrations be forcibly put down and all unrest ended by July 11. Khamenei knows there is a tidal wave against him and only maximum force can keep his head barely above water. The drowning of the regime has begun — and it can only hold its breath for so long.
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Ryan Mauro is the founder of WorldThreats.com and the director of intelligence at the Asymmetrical Warfare and Intelligence Center (AWIC). He’s also the national security researcher for the Christian Action Network and a published author. He can be contacted at TDCAnalyst@aol.com.
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16 Comments
1. ked5:hmm, I guess the mullahs can read the writing on the wall – and it doesn’t look good for them.
Jul 8, 2009 - 8:03 am 2. SmartGrunt:If the regime falls, will The One condemn the “coup” that toppled a legitimate government?
Jul 8, 2009 - 8:56 am 3. anton:2. SmartGrunt,
Probably, The One seems top have a real warm-spot for totalitarian strong-men. It is much harder to “swing a deal Chicago-style” with a representative body than it is with one dictator (so many more people to bribe/intimidate, and ACORN has little presence in Iran).
Jul 8, 2009 - 9:15 am 4. bubblehead:The truly sad thing about all this is that there is very little chance that ousting the Mullahs will result in any improvement in the political, social or economic conditions for the common people. History shows us that whenever a political vacuum is created, most often it draws in the worst kind of thugs and tyrants. The candidate most likely to have won the election is no pillar of freedom and those waiting in the wings to try to usurp even HIS claim are worse yet! They could easily trade the Mullahs for Hizbullah or the Taliban because both those groups have money, weapons and sufficient organization to make the grab.
I truly hope that those who have fomented this insurgency understand that the elimination of the mullahs is only the beginning of the job (and the easy part at that!)
Jul 8, 2009 - 9:37 am 5. Butters Dad:Personally, I wouldn’t mind seeing Khamenei and his little, toady turd dancing at the ends of some rope. Heck, I’d even buy tickets to see that one, as long as I get to smack each one of ‘em upside the head with a salami first.
Jul 8, 2009 - 9:42 am 6. Professor Guvinoff:Yeah, that’s an idea: Send Acorn to help the protestors against the Basiji!
Seriously, Kamenei is betting on protecting his position with measures that can only further expose his illigetimacy. Hardening of the arteries is not a great adaptive attribute, except towards oblivion. We are back to the question of how many innocents have to suffer and even die before the tyranny crumbles?
In Turkey, the army has saved the situation, repeatedly, when the islamists gathered too much strength. Anyone has any insight on where the iranian military stands in this boil?
Jul 8, 2009 - 9:47 am 7. "progressive"watch:All that oil wealth might as well have been poured into the sand for the amount of benefit the poor of the Muslim nations have got from it.
Obama considers these thug leaders to be a part of his thug future in the U.S.
Jul 8, 2009 - 10:02 am 8. Listen up:My pal in Iran writes that he is taking part in all the anti-gov. protest because it is the right thing to do. Hey, we need to package that additude and deliver it to the obama agenda rallys here in USA. Can we protest? YES WE CAN!
Jul 8, 2009 - 10:22 am 9. David W. Lincoln:Does this sound familiar: http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1770561
Jul 8, 2009 - 10:41 am 10. Adina Kutnicki,Israel:From your mouth to God’s ears…..
Jul 8, 2009 - 12:57 pm 11. Scooby:What would really be horrific though is if one dictator is replaced by another.
What happens in Iran, the eventual toppling of this heinous regime, is of monumental importance for world peace. Lives literally hand in the balance.
IF the Iranian Hitler is toppled then many terror dominoes will fall. The tailwind will be enormous, in a way, reverse blowback.
Keep your fingers crossed, and even if you don’t usually resort to prayer in times of distress-start.
We need to support these people in any way we can…and that doesn’t mean 24/7 coverage of Michael Jackson’s death.
Focus, people!
Jul 8, 2009 - 2:22 pm 12. anmadinejad:Does all this sound like a desperate tactics to control the poor nation of Iran, well, don’t despair, end is near .
Jul 8, 2009 - 3:09 pm 13. In Iran:I can smell it, feel it.
I cant wait to participate in today’s (July 9th)demonstration in Tehran.
Jul 8, 2009 - 3:26 pm 14. ked5:In Iran we need your support, try to convince your governments to declare Ahmadinejad illegitimate. He leads th 12th June coup.
In Iran we shout for PRESIDENT MOUSAVI.
Dont forget us. V .
9. David W. Lincoln:
Does this sound familiar: http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1770561
~~~~~
I guess Western China’s muslim population reached a critical mass.
Jul 8, 2009 - 7:11 pm 15. Meryl:While Col. obama is fluttering around Medvedev and screwing up basic diplomatic “lines to be delivered”, he obviously can’t be bothered to acknowledge that this devastating situation in Iran continues….his presumption that he could “ride it” when he first praised their “election” as evidence of “robust dialogue” didn’t last long when he discovered that the real world wouldn’t so easily bend itself to his uses.
He is so stupid and so dangerous…look at all of the terrible situations around the world which have been inflamed since he said the oath of office. The world’s despots and villains welcome a weak America and are emboldened by the Col.’s declared lack of interest in freedom, personal liberty and national courage on the part of any nation.
He will go down in history as one of the most vapid, most dangerous, most despicable men to ever occupy any position of influence in American government.
Jul 8, 2009 - 9:22 pm 16. Paul -Indiana:I guess ‘the religion of peace’ is at it again.
Jul 9, 2009 - 7:22 am