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Iran Launches Preemptive War Against July 9 Protests
Thursday marks the ten-year anniversary of the 1999 student uprising — and the mullahs don't want to see a repeat. (Also read Michael Ledeen: "The 9th of July, the 18th of Tir")
July 9 will be the anniversary of the 1999 student protests in Iran, the event that previously held the title of provoking the most instability, only recently upstaged by the dramatic unrest in reaction to the sham presidential elections. This anniversary has particular meaning for the Iranian people. The date has become somewhat of a holiday, the day that comes once per year where everyone unites and outpours their grievances against the government. That uprising ended with security measures identical to the ones being taken today, with reports of students being thrown from buildings, paramilitary forces raiding and destroying dorms, and mass arrests and torture.
For Iranians, July 9 is the next round in the bout. Nationwide protests are being planned and they will be large enough to grab the attention of the Western media that has been lost in recent weeks as the crowds of millions in the streets of Tehran have dissipated. Already, I’ve been emailed several fliers promoting the rallies. The regime is well aware that July 9 will mark the greatest instability since the week immediately following the June 12 “election” and it has begun a preemptive war to limit the inevitable escalation that is bound to happen.
According to reports I’ve received, which have been declining in recent days due to the crackdown, Basiji checkpoints have been set up throughout Tehran, searching all vehicles driving after 11:00 p.m. A particular focus of the regime is schools, the battleground of 1999. For example, every dorm at Sistan and Baluchistan University has been searched, and summer classes that were set to begin July 6 were canceled so the school could be shut down. At Tabriz University, students were forced to leave their dorms immediately after finishing their final exams. At Babol University, seven students arrested for demonstrating are going to be held until after July 9. Tehran University and others are on lockdown, with security forces and police dogs waiting to pounce.
Other measures are being taken at sites assumed to be the gathering points of demonstrators. The graves of those killed by the regime over the past month are being guarded by security personnel who often refuse to let the graves even be visited. The state media is not hiding news about executions, openly reporting that 34 people were hanged last week. In Sanandaj, a Kurdish town, water reportedly has been cut off, an attempt to force the people to disperse and spend time searching for resources rather than mobilizing against the regime.
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Ryan Mauro is the founder of WorldThreats.com and the director of intelligence at the Asymmetrical Warfare and Intelligence Center (AWIC). He’s also the national security researcher for the Christian Action Network and a published author. He can be contacted at TDCAnalyst@aol.com.
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16 Comments
1. ked5:hmm, I guess the mullahs can read the writing on the wall – and it doesn’t look good for them.
Jul 8, 2009 - 8:03 am 2. SmartGrunt:If the regime falls, will The One condemn the “coup” that toppled a legitimate government?
Jul 8, 2009 - 8:56 am 3. anton:2. SmartGrunt,
Probably, The One seems top have a real warm-spot for totalitarian strong-men. It is much harder to “swing a deal Chicago-style” with a representative body than it is with one dictator (so many more people to bribe/intimidate, and ACORN has little presence in Iran).
Jul 8, 2009 - 9:15 am 4. bubblehead:The truly sad thing about all this is that there is very little chance that ousting the Mullahs will result in any improvement in the political, social or economic conditions for the common people. History shows us that whenever a political vacuum is created, most often it draws in the worst kind of thugs and tyrants. The candidate most likely to have won the election is no pillar of freedom and those waiting in the wings to try to usurp even HIS claim are worse yet! They could easily trade the Mullahs for Hizbullah or the Taliban because both those groups have money, weapons and sufficient organization to make the grab.
I truly hope that those who have fomented this insurgency understand that the elimination of the mullahs is only the beginning of the job (and the easy part at that!)
Jul 8, 2009 - 9:37 am 5. Butters Dad:Personally, I wouldn’t mind seeing Khamenei and his little, toady turd dancing at the ends of some rope. Heck, I’d even buy tickets to see that one, as long as I get to smack each one of ‘em upside the head with a salami first.
Jul 8, 2009 - 9:42 am 6. Professor Guvinoff:Yeah, that’s an idea: Send Acorn to help the protestors against the Basiji!
Seriously, Kamenei is betting on protecting his position with measures that can only further expose his illigetimacy. Hardening of the arteries is not a great adaptive attribute, except towards oblivion. We are back to the question of how many innocents have to suffer and even die before the tyranny crumbles?
In Turkey, the army has saved the situation, repeatedly, when the islamists gathered too much strength. Anyone has any insight on where the iranian military stands in this boil?
Jul 8, 2009 - 9:47 am 7. "progressive"watch:All that oil wealth might as well have been poured into the sand for the amount of benefit the poor of the Muslim nations have got from it.
Obama considers these thug leaders to be a part of his thug future in the U.S.
Jul 8, 2009 - 10:02 am 8. Listen up:My pal in Iran writes that he is taking part in all the anti-gov. protest because it is the right thing to do. Hey, we need to package that additude and deliver it to the obama agenda rallys here in USA. Can we protest? YES WE CAN!
Jul 8, 2009 - 10:22 am 9. David W. Lincoln:Does this sound familiar: http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1770561
Jul 8, 2009 - 10:41 am 10. Adina Kutnicki,Israel:From your mouth to God’s ears…..
Jul 8, 2009 - 12:57 pm 11. Scooby:What would really be horrific though is if one dictator is replaced by another.
What happens in Iran, the eventual toppling of this heinous regime, is of monumental importance for world peace. Lives literally hand in the balance.
IF the Iranian Hitler is toppled then many terror dominoes will fall. The tailwind will be enormous, in a way, reverse blowback.
Keep your fingers crossed, and even if you don’t usually resort to prayer in times of distress-start.
We need to support these people in any way we can…and that doesn’t mean 24/7 coverage of Michael Jackson’s death.
Focus, people!
Jul 8, 2009 - 2:22 pm 12. anmadinejad:Does all this sound like a desperate tactics to control the poor nation of Iran, well, don’t despair, end is near .
Jul 8, 2009 - 3:09 pm 13. In Iran:I can smell it, feel it.
I cant wait to participate in today’s (July 9th)demonstration in Tehran.
Jul 8, 2009 - 3:26 pm 14. ked5:In Iran we need your support, try to convince your governments to declare Ahmadinejad illegitimate. He leads th 12th June coup.
In Iran we shout for PRESIDENT MOUSAVI.
Dont forget us. V .
9. David W. Lincoln:
Does this sound familiar: http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1770561
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I guess Western China’s muslim population reached a critical mass.
Jul 8, 2009 - 7:11 pm 15. Meryl:While Col. obama is fluttering around Medvedev and screwing up basic diplomatic “lines to be delivered”, he obviously can’t be bothered to acknowledge that this devastating situation in Iran continues….his presumption that he could “ride it” when he first praised their “election” as evidence of “robust dialogue” didn’t last long when he discovered that the real world wouldn’t so easily bend itself to his uses.
He is so stupid and so dangerous…look at all of the terrible situations around the world which have been inflamed since he said the oath of office. The world’s despots and villains welcome a weak America and are emboldened by the Col.’s declared lack of interest in freedom, personal liberty and national courage on the part of any nation.
He will go down in history as one of the most vapid, most dangerous, most despicable men to ever occupy any position of influence in American government.
Jul 8, 2009 - 9:22 pm 16. Paul -Indiana:I guess ‘the religion of peace’ is at it again.
Jul 9, 2009 - 7:22 am