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Iran Worried over Georgian Conflict
Tehran is concerned that the Iranian nuclear program may become a bargaining chip in resolving the question of South Ossetia.
One important person in the Georgian government who helped Israel get these contracts is Davit Kezerashvili, Georgia’s defense minister and a former Israeli citizen who speaks fluent Hebrew.
What could cause worry in Tehran is that Jerusalem is trying to use its influence over Georgia as potential leverage to prevent Russia from selling advanced weaponry to Iran in the future.
Israel hopes to achieve this through its recent declaration that it will no longer sell weapons and systems which could be used for attack purposes to Georgia. This means that instead of selling rifles or RPVs, it will confine its sales to defensive equipment such as communication devices.
This move is likely to win new friends and allies for Israel in the Kremlin. Even if Russia doesn’t immediately reciprocate, it might do so in the future. The Georgian experience will serve as a good personal example for Russia’s leadership and the threat they pose by supplying sophisticated weapons to another country’s enemy, especially Iran, which Israel sees as an existential threat, something far more serious than the Georgian threat poses for Russia.
For now, it seems that Ahmadinejad will be doing his utmost to widen Iran’s circle of friends. One notable effort is his upcoming trip to Turkey scheduled for August 14. This has already proven to be controversial. Initially, it was declared as a state visit. However, soon his administration realized that all politicians who are on state visits to Turkey must visit the mausoleum of Ataturk, who is considered to be the founding father of secular Turkey.
To religious Iranian revolutionaries like Ahmadinejad, Ataturk represents everything they oppose. The iconic Turkish leader removed religion from government; Ahmadinejad wants religion to be the center point of government. In order to avoid the mausoleum pilgrimage, he changed the title of his trip from a “state visit” to a “working visit,” which means he will only visit Istanbul and not Ankara, where Ataturk is buried.
To make matters even stickier for the Iranian president, Israel waded into the story by protesting to Turkey about Ahmadinejad’s visit. While the Iranian government described the letter as “lacking value,” Iran’s decision makers are aware of Turkey’s close relationship with Israel, especially when it comes to the recent peace talks between Jerusalem and Damascus.
It is very likely that Ahmadinejad will use Iran’s importance as a supplier of energy to Turkey as leverage to convince Ankara to reduce its support for Israel. Unfortunately for him, he will most likely fail. Like the Russians, the Turks are far more interested in boosting their own regional position than in President Ahmadinejad’s friendship.
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Meir Javedanfar is the co-author with Yossi Melman of The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the State of Iran. He runs Middle East Economic and Political Analysis (MEEPAS).
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32 Comments
1. Sandra M:Bill Kristol has written a superb opinion piece for the New York Times this morning. Must reading. It inspired me to write to president@whitehouse.gov and vicepresident urging that we support the Georgians who have supported us in Iraq.
Georgia may be tiny, but with American and Israeli technology and training on its side, it may embarrass Putin enough so that he’ll withdraw. Putin’s a bully and playing nice will only encourage him to bully other US allies. Plus, we can’t let him have the stranglehold on vital oil that control over Georgia would give him.
Aug 11, 2008 - 8:16 am 2. Russian Bear:Comprehensive analysis, good article. Thanks, Meir Javedanfar.
Aug 11, 2008 - 9:58 am 3. Russian Bear:Sandra, Putin is going to withdraw without your and Israli intervention. Just wait for 2-3 days.
Aug 11, 2008 - 10:01 am 4. wayne:russia has been giving wepons to evil contrys since the end of ww2, i think they are to blame for todays wars we are trying to stop, i think its time to stop their aggression and russia of its military resources once and for all, i hate war but the un just talk and do nothing and russia still giving evil contry’s wepons, america and allies need to take russia out now befor its to late russia can not fight the world.
Aug 11, 2008 - 11:10 am 5. Susan Katz Keating:The Caucasus is as volatile as the oil in that pipeline. Russia has made its intentions clear. We need to do the same.
Aug 11, 2008 - 11:30 am 6. Stephen Fox:Can’t quite see how Russia would be weakened by kicking Georgia’s butt, but here’s hoping.
Aug 11, 2008 - 11:38 am 7. Sandy Salt:Russia is not going to be weakened by this conflict one bit. It will actually be emboldened because the EU will not do anything to cause the Russians to turn off their oil and gas. This leaves just the US and Israel, which are not going to go to all out war with Russia over Georgia. But Iran should be worried because Israel is going to see that the US isn’t going to take care of them, they are going to bomb Iran sooner than later. This will of course require the Russians to come to the aid of their new strategic partner. The EU will then condemn Israel and the US for letting this happen and things only get worse from there.
There will be calls for peace settlements, which require that Israel disarm, while the Russians supply their new partners with all kinds of goodies to use against the hated Israel. Oil prices will shoot through the roof and the EU will side against Israel for economic reasons. The US is going to be hurting when all overseas oil is cut off and we are relying on Canada, Mexico, and domestic production. How long do you think the American economy is going to last on half our normal oil? It is a truly scary thought and Russia is not stupid, so they know what they are doing. Israel is probably warming up the jets now, so Iran watch the skies.
Aug 11, 2008 - 11:52 am 8. Mary Stella:Sandy Salt, great point, this will be the best time for Israel to take Iran’s future bomb making facilities.
Aug 11, 2008 - 12:25 pm 9. Sandy Salt:Israeli government, has own problem with Omert to resolve, unfortuantely.
Russia is on its way to become very powerful, they are giving the U.S., best momentum in history to hit them hard and show them how powerful American is, and can be if choses so, plus, military-wise neutralize them. Unfortunately, the Democrats, will not permit this happen. President Bush gave up on Congress since 06, elections, sadly.
I think it would be ill advised to attack Russia directly because the idea of mutually assured destruction is still in place. They have a lot of nukes and if they thought we were a threat to them they might just use them. Plus, if Israel does attack our economy would be in ruins and we would not be thinking about a war with anyone. We would be trying to figure out how to get our troops our of Iraq, while under fire from all directions. This whole situation isn’t going to be pretty, so “buckle up Martha it is going to be a bumpy ride.”
Aug 11, 2008 - 1:14 pm 10. Meir Javedanfar:There is an article in Haaretz about former Israeli special forces people, who trained the Georgians recently. One of them called Israel a hypocrite. He said “why is it we complain when nations boycotted us during our wars, but we are doing the same to Georgia”? I think thats a moral dilemma which could get more severe, especially if Russia tries to go all the way and to overthrow the democratically elected government in Tbilisi.
Aug 11, 2008 - 1:22 pm 11. Jay:Lets see, Russia invades Georgia; Israel is warming up the jets, U.S. Navy maneuvered
Aug 11, 2008 - 2:02 pm 12. John Samford:Close to Iranian territory and 130,000 plus U.S. troops on Iran’s border not to mention some Arab countries that truly don’t like Iran and would like to see them fall. Add to that a president with balls (Bush) and a nervous Israeli citizenry. This is not the time for some mealy mouth, inexperienced a-hole like Obama. I wish Bush could run for another term, you liberals may be regretting your choice for president. Looks like McCain is our only answer for next president. Good time to learn to pray.
“Russia, seeking a deal over Georgia, could give the U.S. the green light to launch a military operation against Iran’s nuclear facilities. ”
Laughed so hard I spewed my coffee. Since when does the USA need Soviet, errr……Russian permission to do anything? We will ask their opinion, to be polite, but they have no veto on American actions. SDI proves that.
Russia is a Cardboard Bear. Their military is really bad. They can run over some tiny country they outnumber 100 to 1 but against a modern military, they are walking dead.
The US Air Force can rule the sky of Georgia if PRESIDENT Bush gives the word. We don’t even need bases in Turkey, the big base in Iraq is only about 400Kms from the action. Although I’ll bet the Turks would be willing to lend a hand. They can look at a map and see that after Georgia, they are next. If the Russians get away with this, then NATO is finished. If NATO won’t fight now, they won’t fight later. If they won’t fight, that piece of paper means nothing.
“This will not be a campaign of half measures, and we will accept no outcome
Aug 11, 2008 - 2:52 pm 13. Russian Bear:except victory.”
- President George Bush, addressing the nation 20.march 2003
RE: John Samford: “They (Turks)can look at a map and see that after Georgia, they are next.”
Aug 11, 2008 - 3:26 pm 14. Herr Morgenholz:Laughed so hard I spewed my coffee. Looks like you are wrong. After Georgia the next is South Carolina.
And do not rush to scare Turks. Unlike Americans, they know not only where Russia is on the map, but also where Georgia is. For about 500 years…
From Georgian/Chechen airspace the USSR..er…Russia can provide early air warning capability to Iran. Israel’s set to go. We’re moving an outhouse full of assets into the Gulf. The Bear creeps closer into the weeds. This is all about Iran’s nuke program, because Russia’s prestige is wrapped up in that program. Devouring Georgia is just a feature. Doesn’t hurt that the Poles and Baltics and Ukies are spooked, too. Keeps ‘em on their toes and respectful of their Slav masters.
Aug 11, 2008 - 3:36 pm 15. August 11th Link Roundup | THE HOT JOINTS:[...] Iran worried over Georgian conflict? [...]
Aug 11, 2008 - 4:38 pm 16. fred:“Sandra, Putin is going to withdraw without your and Israli intervention. Just wait for 2-3 days.”
LMAO!!! I caught this agent of dizinformatzia in a lie (among others he dared utter)over at Richard Fernandez’ blog.
The Russians are in Georgia to stay. They are in Gori and bearing down towards Tiblisi. They’ve landed troops into the Black Sea ports. You know, I’m getting tired of the bullshit these Russian agents of disinformation are sowing across the weblogs.
Turkey most certainly is going to triangulate between Moscow and Tehran. Anyone with a brain can see that. And Turkey is no friend of ours. I don’t think the Turks are going to be helpful to the Georgian forces being backed up against the lower Caucasus Range. Expect treachery from Turkey around every corner.
Aug 11, 2008 - 5:07 pm 17. Valerie:Russian Bear,
The US President has called the Russians liars. http://hotair.com/archives/2008/08/11/bush-russians-looking-to-depose-georgian-government/
Is your information better?
Aug 11, 2008 - 6:18 pm 18. John Samford:“Looks like you are wrong. After Georgia the next is South Carolina.
And do not rush to scare Turks. Unlike Americans, they know not only where Russia is on the map, but also where Georgia is. For about 500 years…”
Depends on which way you are going. It could be Florida, home of the hanging chad. Or it could be Alabama, home of the hot babe, where I live.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUaP7LoppGw
With my redneck rowboat.
The Turks aren’t scared. They know what kind of animals they have for neighbors, having been dealing with them for over 1,000 years.
Remember, before the Rus tribe learned their little lesson in cavalry tactics from the great Kahn, the Turks used to hunt them for sport.
Great fun, they ran faster then an antelope and their women were more useful.
What did Dubbau tell Putin at the Olympics? “Puttie, have you ever seen a F-22? Well you will.” It will be interesting to see how eager those Soviet, err…..Russian conscripts with their 30 year old weapons systems are to die for Mother Georgia? What’s up with that?
“A piece of paper makes you an officer, a radio makes you a commander.” *
*
_General Omar Bradley
We will kill ALL your generals. Then their replacements. We will let the conscripts go home. With their weapons. I wonder how Puttie will like that.
Aug 11, 2008 - 7:00 pm 19. fred:Or if Dubbau is real pissed we will withdraw from the NPT and sell Poland and German a few hundred nukes each. What’s that running down your leg, Russian Bear?
They say a bear sh1ts in the woods, if they just found out the Poles have 120 nukes with delivery systems, it’s the pants NOT the woods.
After Putin is gone and the regime change is well underway, here is a word of advice. Shoot the KGB. ALL of them, every one, no exceptions.
John Stamford,
I like your ideas, especially the part about shooting all the ex-KGB guys. But I would frog march them up the gallows steps in Red Square and have a public hanging. You can have bands and the preachers (well, Russian orthodox priests)calling on the people to repent of their sins and watch the devils go to their master.
Just like they did in the Western territories when federal marshals dealt with the criminals.
Aug 11, 2008 - 7:22 pm 20. The Anti Jihadist:Might be a good time to have another Operation Cyclone, only this time to arm and train the Georgian resistance. Problem is, such covert activities take time to get up to speed.
Aug 11, 2008 - 9:49 pm 21. Cyrus:As an alleged Iranian, Meir, you ought to be ashamed of yourself and the people who post viscious aggression against iran on this site.
Aug 11, 2008 - 10:19 pm 22. Iran Worried over Georgian Conflict…Tehran is concerned that the Iranian nuclear program may become a bargaining chip in resolving the question of South Ossetia. « The Tizona Group:[...] Pajamas Media Posted in Iran, Opinion, Russia. Tags: The Persian Concern Has Merit. [...]
Aug 12, 2008 - 5:32 am 23. Hening:Two sayings that come to mind:
1) Never trust a Turk (Old Greek proverb)
2) We will bury you (not so old Soviet threat)
Georgia is a symbol of hope for freedom in a very dim part of the world. Russia is still an evil empire, and the world allows their paranoia to excuse their barbarism.
Aug 12, 2008 - 6:12 am 24. Stoli:I’d love to see the Israeli’s take out the Iran nuke plant. It’s their region and their hide. As far as Georgia is concerned, the US needs to hit the Russians in the pocketbook. Cut off any aid and finances to them. Get the EU to play along. Militarily we can’t really do anything directly, but send the Freedom Fighters and Insurgents of Georgia weapons, supplies and knowhow…bog the Ruskies down in a long protracted war like they’ve done to us through surragates in Iran.
Aug 12, 2008 - 7:28 am 25. Sandy Salt:Here, Here, I could not agree more with being a thorn in the Bear’s paws. We need to use those military advisors in Georgia to train insurgents in the ways of the IED and Explosively Formed Penetrators just like Russia did for the Iranian backed Iraqis.
Aug 12, 2008 - 8:23 am 26. John Samford:viscious? Do you mean this?:
vi·cious Audio Help /ˈvɪʃəs/ Pronunciation Key – Show Spelled Pronunciation[vish-uhs] Pronunciation Key – Show IPA Pronunciation
–adjective
1. addicted to or characterized by vice; grossly immoral; depraved; profligate: a vicious life.
2. given or readily disposed to evil: a vicious criminal.
3. reprehensible; blameworthy; wrong: a vicious deception.
4. spiteful; malicious: vicious gossip; a vicious attack.
5. unpleasantly severe: a vicious headache.
6. characterized or marred by faults or defects; faulty; unsound: vicious reasoning.
7. savage; ferocious: They all feared his vicious temper.
8. (of an animal) having bad habits or a cruel or fierce disposition: a vicious bull.
9. Archaic. morbid, foul, or noxious.
Or this?
vac·u·ous Audio Help /ˈvækyuəs/ Pronunciation Key – Show Spelled Pronunciation[vak-yoo-uhs] Pronunciation Key – Show IPA Pronunciation
–adjective
1. without contents; empty: the vacuous air.
2. lacking in ideas or intelligence: a vacuous mind.
3. expressing or characterized by a lack of ideas or intelligence; inane; stupid: a vacuous book.
4. purposeless; idle: a vacuous way of life.
[Origin: 1645–55; < L vacuus empty; see -ous]
—Related forms
vac·u·ous·ly, adverb
vac·u·ous·ness, noun
Or maybe;
vesi·cle (ves′i kəl)
noun
1. a small, membranous cavity, sac, or cyst; specif.,
1. Anat., Med. a small cavity or sac filled with fluid; esp., a small, round elevation of the skin containing a serous fluid; blister
2. Bot. a small, bladderlike sac filled with air or liquid
2. Geol. a small, spherical cavity in volcanic rock, produced by bubbles of air or gas in the molten rock
I find myself somewhat confused. Not an uncommon occurrence, one I have learned to deal with by asking, Just WTF are you talking about?
Aug 12, 2008 - 3:18 pm 27. Edward A.:I was leaning toward 1 or 2 but then I started thinking about bubbles of gas in molten rock, which seemed topical.
Never thought I would be so grateful to the French and NATO. They have the ability to work with the Russians and appear to have reached a cease-fire agreement. Seems the U.S. has little influence on Russia today. G.W. Bush has reduced the U.S. importance on the world stage…and do we even have a Secretary of State…or is she shopping again?
Aug 12, 2008 - 10:05 pm 28. Sandra M:Yesterday, an oped by Max Boot in the LAT urged supplying the Georgians with stinger missiles to bring down aircraft and with javelin missiles to disable all those armored personnel carriers rolling into Georgia. Disable the ones in front and the ones in back and you get chaos and gridlock. Then, shoot from both ends towards the middle.
Stinger missiles were the weapon that basically turned around the war in Afghanistan.
The weapons genius of CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR Mike Vickers is now an Undersecretary of Defense in the Pentagon, and I hope he will be put in charge of arming our New Europe allies, who are real allies, unlike Old Europe which has been content to have us defend them, while carping at us rather than showing any real gratitude.
I turned to C-Span this morning and heard Ralph Peters telling an AEI seminar that it seems Putin has lost 10-12 planes so far and is very pissed off about it. (We lost 0% planes statistically in the 12 years of our overflights over Iraq). Russian pilots don’t get much flight time and hence are missing their targets. One Georgian town turned off its lights at night and the Russian bombs landed in the sea. If the Russian soldiers don’t have night vision goggles, the night will belong to Georgian special forces.
I think we have to seek NATO membership for all the Eastern European nations immediately and provide them with defensive weapons which the Russians will howl about, but how can they oppose DEFENSIVE weapons unless they mean to act aggressively and OFFENSIVELY? What an excuse they’ve given the west to install defensive weapons in the Ukraine, Poland, Georgia, et al.
We need an emergency crash program seeking energy independence so as to starve Putin, Chavez and Adminjihad of oil money they’re putting to dangerous purposes. If we start drilling for oil off our shores and in Alaska, and building refineries (for the first time in 30 years) the price of oil which has been kept high by speculators in oil FUTURES will fall like a stone. Pension funds are investing in oil futures. Everyone is because currently that’s where the profit has been. Pierce that oil bubble and our enemies’ incomes will suffer. Greatly.
Aug 13, 2008 - 10:15 am 29. Sandra M:A terrific idea from Hollis on a related column here on PJM which has now closed comments. The Georgians didn’t do this initially. If they do it now, they will cut off the Russians from resupply, something the Russians are lousy at, and sending further troops and ammo.
Hollis said:
Aug 13, 2008 - 10:28 am 30. M. Simon:“The road from Russia to South Ossetia is pretty fragile as a line of supply; it goes through the Roki Tunnel, a mountain tunnel at an altitude of 10,000 feet. I have to wonder why the Georgian air force—and it’s a good one by all accounts—didn’t have as its first mission in the war the total zapping of the South Ossetian exit of that tunnel. Or if you don’t trust the flyboys, send in your special forces with a few backpacks full of HE. There are a lot of ways to cripple a tunnel. Hell, do it low-tech: drive a fuel truck in there, with a car following, jackknife the truck halfway through with a remote control or timing fuse—truck driver gets out and strolls to the car, one fast U-turn and you’re out and back in Georgia, just in time to see a ball of flame erupt from the tunnel exit. And rebuilding a tunnel way up in the mountains is not an easy or a fast job. Sure, the Russians could resupply by air, but that’s a much, much tougher job and would at least slow down the inevitable.”
Oil prices will shoot through the roof
Then demand collapses followed by oil collapse.
Aug 16, 2008 - 11:07 pm 31. masumi:What for bosh I hear here concerning Russia, которяя is an empire of evil? Any unreasonable fears and only. As though Russia to be engaged there is nothing more, except how to suspect whom a misfortune… In our great country some years after disintegration of Soviet Union were the uttermost decline, cities it has concerned to a lesser degree, but it does not change an essence business. Too most occurred and to all former republics. Yes we only also are engaged that we build up the expensive house anew. So it is necessary to protect still neighbours, the humanitarian help to send, from aggression to protect. Those who thinks are mistaken that so another’s territories are interesting to us. Absolutely on the contrary, to us the quite suffice, would leave alone and any fanatics and maniacs did not press on mentality from the White House. I the Ossetin, was born in Uzbekistan, now I live in Russia. And so, it is all to me native, Soviet. . I love the Georgian, it is one of most before nonaggressive nationalities on caucasus is now obviously infected White Home by this most агрессиией. Saakashvili is very unpopular among the Georgian, at me it is a lot of friends in Tbilisi which condemn him. 21 centuries has come, and the world all is at war. And personally my opinion that all this military delirium goes from outside the White House. Also there is there no freedom of the press, one propagation in Mass media. Bringing the resume to the statement, I wish to tell that personally my opinion that is time to the world to leave in general frontiers, on one planet we live, and instead any continuous race for world supremacy. Nonsense, in a word.
Aug 20, 2008 - 5:08 am 32. masumi:What for bosh I hear here concerning Russia which is an empire of evil? Any unreasonable fears and only. As though Russia to be engaged there is nothing more, except how to suspect whom a misfortune… In our great country some years after disintegration of Soviet Union were the uttermost decline, cities it has concerned to a lesser degree, but it does not change an essence business. Too most occurred and to all former republics. Yes we only also are engaged that we build up the expensive house anew. So it is necessary to protect still neighbours, the humanitarian help to send, from aggression to protect. Those who thinks are mistaken that so another’s territories are interesting to us. Absolutely on the contrary, to us the quite suffice, would leave alone and any fanatics and maniacs did not press on mentality from the White House. I the Ossetin, was born in Uzbekistan, now I live in Russia. And so, it is all to me native, Soviet. . I love the Georgian, it is one of most before nonaggressive nationalities on caucasus is now obviously infected White Home by this aggression. Saakashvili is very unpopular among the Georgian, at me it is a lot of friends in Tbilisi which condemn him. 21 centuries has come, and the world all is at war. And personally my opinion that all this military delirium goes from outside the White House. Also there is there no freedom of the press, one propagation in Mass media. Bringing the resume to the statement, I wish to tell that personally my opinion that is time to the world to leave in general frontiers, on one planet we live, and instead any continuous race for world supremacy. Nonsense, in a word.
Aug 20, 2008 - 5:12 am