Iranian Nukes = The End of the World as We Know It
If Iran is allowed to build a nuclear weapon, it will destroy the last vestiges of the nonproliferation framework and signal the collapse of an American-led global order.
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Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, announced at the end of last month that the United States was preparing for “potential military courses of action” against Iranian forces. “It would be a mistake,” he noted, “to think that we are out of combat capability.”
Many, however, would say the real mistake is to think the Bush administration is really contemplating military action. “It is time to admit the truth,” Charles Krauthammer recently wrote. “The Bush administration’s attempt to halt Iran’s nuclear program has failed.” Dubya still has more than eight months left in the White House, but most everyone is ready to close the book on the obviously exhausted president.
If Bush is indeed done and Iran has won this round, what are the consequences for the American-led international system? As an initial matter, Iran’s “atomic ayatollahs” will get to the brink of weaponizing the atom. According to the Mossad, they could have the bomb by the end of next year.
Keeping the ultimate weapon out of the hands of the Iranians is, as they say, “a question of civilization.” After all, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has made himself famous for his chatter about “wiping Israel off the map,” and Hassan Abassi, a senior member of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards, once said, “We have a strategy drawn up for the destruction of Anglo-Saxon civilization.”
An Iran with a nuclear weapon is inherently dangerous, even if it never launches a warhead, drops a bomb, or supplies fissile material to one of its terrorist allies. By succeeding in building a nuclear arsenal it will destabilize the Middle East, already the world’s most volatile region. Moreover, there will be two other adverse consequences, both of them far more serious.
First, Iran, following in North Korea’s footsteps, will have proven that the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty is a dead letter. A collapse of this accord, the global pact that has helped slow the spread of the bomb for four decades, will undoubtedly create a problem: Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, estimates that almost fifty nations could develop nuclear weapons within a few years’ time.
Of course, many of these countries will not bother to make bombs, and some that will do so will not constitute threats to world stability. Nonetheless, an end to the nonproliferation treaty would obviously open the door to accelerated, and probably sustained, proliferation as nations realize their nuclear aspirations and others rush to defend themselves from newly-nuclearized neighbors. Iran’s determination to build a bomb is already roiling its region. In December 2006, for instance, the six oil-rich Arab states of the Gulf Cooperation Council announced that they were considering starting a regional nuclear energy consortium, which could end up being the precursor to six new weapons programs. Russia then announced its willingness to transfer nuclear technology to members of the group. Yemen also wants to participate in the joint effort. In January of the following year, Jordan’s King Abdullah announced his country wanted its own reactors — and he implied his civilian program would be a stepping stone to a nuclear arsenal. Now, Egypt, which secretly experimented with fissile material in the 1980s and 1990s, is beginning a nuclear energy program of its own.
Proliferation, unfortunately, will not stop in the Gulf. If we are entering a new global order, the West needs to be prepared for dozens of new nuclear powers with some of them being hostile and unstable states. “The ‘domino theory’ of the 21st century may well be nuclear,” said George Tenet when he headed the CIA. “We have entered a new world of proliferation.” So, over time, every nation that wants the bomb will get the bomb. Eventually, terrorists will get their hands on a nuclear device. Straight-line extrapolations are often wrong, but these are so compelling. As even Henry Kissinger admitted about proliferation at the end of 2004, “Now we are in a world in which there is no end-game.”
Iran, therefore, is not just about Iran. Iran is also about every other nation that wants the most destructive weapon in history.
And that leads us to the second consequence of Iran’s nuclearization: the end of the American-led global order. Why would this happen? An international system that cannot defend its most vital interest against its weakest members cannot last. Great nations that flounder lose their following quickly. Who is going to side with the United States once it has publicly demonstrated that it is incapable of prevailing over far weaker adversaries? Therefore, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
The truth is that, should American leadership fail at this moment, the world will pass from the current hegemonic system to what the Chinese and French call a “multipolar” one. The world can be stable in any type of arrangement of nations, but it is rarely safe when it transitions from one to the next. Changes of the global order, history demonstrates, are usually accompanied by uncertainty, turbulence, and death in great numbers. That has been especially true when a once-dominant nation fails to maintain peace and stability.
The last two eras without a superpower produced two wars of unprecedented devastation. The competition to replace American influence, therefore, is bound to be particularly unsettling, especially now that authoritarian states, led by Moscow and Beijing, are gaining strength, drawing closer together, and challenging democratic nations.
So what if Krauthammer is right and Iran in fact prevails over the United States? If the Bush administration cannot change the course of events one more time, then we could travel from the best moment in history to the worst. This is, up to now, the ultimate test of American leadership.
Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China.
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32 Comments
Nazish:It’s not about Iran……it’s actually about America!!
May 7, 2008 - 8:35 am Douglas Bogle:Bush has all the destructive weapons & being a super power it disallows Iran to keep on with its nukes!!
What kind of biased people u r. I think that’s y u created the UNO in which U represents USA and all others ONLY “NO”……& that’s the main reason y problems are only solved in accordance with Mr.Bush.
On one hand u make caricatures of our Prophet(Peace be upon him) & defend yourselves with the argument of “Freedom of expression” & on the other hand when a person denies Holocaust, u imprison him for 10 years!!
U make rules & then bend it yourselves!!
You people reproduce the news & present it another way (as u did in the article of Ahmedinejad’s son’s wedding whereas the actual thing was the simplicity of these people)………
I think u r among those whom God has clearly stated in the Quran as “their hearts have been sealed”…….but what’s more, I’ll be accountable for my deeds & you’ll be for yours!! So fear the Day of Judgement when you’ll be helpless saying Wish we had accepted the true religion which God had sent upon us but you’ll not be able to come back to this world again!!
Rome fell and so will the US. The sad part is that Americans have become lazy and weak. We should have taken a hard stance in Iraq, stopped the looting, crushed Al sadr, etc.. But our fearless leaders Cong. and Sen. are only worried about themselves and fought tooth and nail to weaken our position in the world.
A future with China or Russia as the major power is a scary thought. Neither has respect for human life.
Any new president in 2008 does not have what it takes to keep us in the game let alone safe.
God bless
May 7, 2008 - 9:12 am BackwardsBoy:Nazish,
May 7, 2008 - 9:42 am Morton Doodslag:Your logic is as convoluted as your grasp of English. Civilized countries, such as the US, do not advocate the destruction of any other nation. Civilized religions do not behead nonbelievers.
The end of the world as we knew it came long ago when Mulsims were first allowed to develop nuclear bombs in Pakistan. We’re only noticing the fact now. The Muslims have proved again and again their utter unreliability as allies, and their utter incapacity to be truthful. AQ Khan, with the connivance of a procession of evil Pakistani leaders first developed and then detonated the “Islamic Bomb”. Carter had a chance to stop them. Then Reagan. Then Bush1, & Clinton. But Pakistan wasn’t prevented, and no real consequences followed. Nor has Pakistan been made to suffer grievosly for their ongoing coddling of al Qaida.
In short, the West blinked long ago, and nukes in a variety of stone-age barbarian Muslim societies became inevitable. As odious as our choices were before they succeeded (massive bombing and death in order to permanently dissuade them from trying), we now face an almost certainly inevitable conflagration of biblical proportions. We could still reverse the trend by annihilating Pakistan’s capacity and suffering the consequences, but we’ll never do it. We don’t have the guts.
Muslims are quite comfortable waging wars of genocide and annihilation. They’ve been doing so for fourteen centuries, turning 1/5 of the world’s population into servile votaries of that hideous hatered-filled “religion”. Eventually they will use their “Islamic Bomb”. We should put the entire Islamic world on notice that a nuclear attack by any murky terrorist group will be seen as an attack by all Muslims with dirty nuclear hands on the civilized world. Such an attack will warrant the complete destruction of all Muslim nations who played a part in the proliferation.
We’re only waking up now to the nightmares unleashed when Muslims weren’t stopped at the beginning of their efforts.
May 7, 2008 - 9:59 am John Samford:Gordon is wrong. It’s all a matter of timing.
May 7, 2008 - 10:16 am Justin:From the military POV, the time to do regime change in Iran was in the fall of ‘04. That is when the USA had the best force ratios against the Mad Dog Mullahs.
Unfortunately, that was the worst time from a political POV. Winning the ‘04 election was more important. The WoT is going to be with us for at least 2 more generations. Win lose or draw in Iraq, cut and run or stay and fight, the war will go on. Terrorism has no center of gravity, no one place that can be use to leverage a victory. Like a bowl of jello, it has no main part no clear start or finish. You just have to dig in and keep eating until it’s all gone.
Terrorism will end with a whimper, not a bang.
The political time for regime change in Iran is this coming October. Remember, by law, the President has 60 days to wage undeclared war before reporting to Congress. The administration then has 30 more days to respond to Congress after that report.
So PRESIDENT Bush has 90 days to affect regime change in Iran before Congress can legally stop him. Impeachments take longer then that, so there is NOTHING that the Demonrats can do about it. With elections in November, Congress is not going to get very frisky about it.
If Bush wants to gamble, he could send the Stealth bombers over the second week of August, which would ensure maximum media coverage and force Congress to choose between voting for America or voting for Iran RIGHT BEFORE THE ELECTION. Guess how that will go?
The balance of forces from a military POV wouldn’t be ideal, but the USA has such an enormous advantage that it wouldn’t matter in the end.
There would be a spike in terrorism as the Mad Dog Mullahs sent their various proxies into action, but that would be a good thing in the long run. Hidden terrorist groups only have political value so long as they are hidden. Once they take action, they lose the ability to hide as well as their threat potential.
Politicians faced with hidden threats get nervous. Politicians faced with overt threats send a minion out to deal with it.
99% of the projected outcomes of an American attack on the Mad Dog Mullahs of Iran are beneficial to the west. It is a very long list, from OIL to Humans rights, peace and stability, universal sufferage, etc.
As far as the WoT, eliminating Iranian support for terrorism would not win the WoT, but it would be a huge bite of Jello.
Problem is, we don’t have the political capital to get away with it. Also, this one war in Iraq is costing us an arm and a leg and it is not sustainable forever. We can’t fight another one in Iran.
May 7, 2008 - 1:09 pm Justin:“when a person denies Holocaust, u imprison him for 10 years!!”
Care to site an example where that happened? You can deny the Holocaust all you want, and you can scream curses against Christianity, the Jews, America, or whatever you want. People will judge you based on what you do, but you won’t go to jail. Unfortunately communicating with you is probably useless. You get this propaganda from you Cleric and you believe it without question. You probably think we eat little Muslim babies over here don’t you? And why wouldn’t you believe that when the only media you have access to is the media your religious government allows you to have access to.
May 7, 2008 - 1:15 pm Dark Helmet:Keep in mind, the Iraqis kicked the sh*t out of Iran. They in turn fell to our forces in a few months… twice. China is behind this. That’s who we have to take out.
May 7, 2008 - 1:35 pm saleboter:I like the senerio of Bush doing the right thing this fall, but doubt it will happen.
May 7, 2008 - 2:02 pm newguy40:The Ismlamic nuclear genie is out of the bottle (pun intended) for good and all now.
I am afraid we face a serious blow (or several) from ex soviet or paki nukes smuggled in thru our porous border(s). Just a question of how bad and when.
And, probable exchange between Israel and nuclear capable Iran. Possible Israeli preemption rather than face a second Holocaust.
Too late… Oh, too late…
May 7, 2008 - 3:52 pm Concerned Citizen:My wife, who never reads the news yet has a good handle on how most people think, asked just last week “what would happen to the world if the U.S. stopped being a superpower?” My answer was that the Chinese, Indians and Russians would start exercising their power and it wouldn’t be more than a couple of years before the Chinese sailed into the Middle East, took over the oil fields and told everyone to go to hell.
May 7, 2008 - 4:14 pm George:Why not simply wait until the maximum investment is made in a facility and simply destroy it with Tomahawks? There’s no need to occupy or fight a ground war in Iran, just blow up what we don’t want them having. What are they going to do about it that they aren’t already doing?
May 7, 2008 - 4:39 pm david p:IRAN MUST BE REDUCED MILITARILY TO WHERE JAPAN WAS POST WWII, DIPLOMACY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG FIST IS THE ONLY SOLUTION
May 7, 2008 - 5:42 pm Dark Helmet:Iran does not need to be destroyed. The Persians are a great people and many of them live here and make the most of what the United States has to offer. Our problem is not with the people, it’s with the mullas. We need to blast the ever loving snot out of every single religious leader and government goon over there. Cut the head off the snake. The rest of it will die.
May 7, 2008 - 7:58 pm John Samford:“Problem is, we don’t have the political capital to get away with it. Also, this one war in Iraq is costing us an arm and a leg and it is not sustainable forever. We can’t fight another one in Iran.”
You read to much N.Y. Slimes and not enough Michael Yon.
May 7, 2008 - 8:58 pm George:Iraq is gaining the USA political capital. I know that isn’t what the MSM is telling you, but they are lying. Check out some of the foreign media from places that have a free (or reasonably so) media.
American prestige has never been higher in Asia, Africa or S. America. We are showing the 3rd world that we keep our word and we will fight for justice and human rights. Despots that deny justice and hate human rights don’t like us. I’m good with that, you should be.
The war in Iraq is cheap compared to the cost of allowing terrorism to go unchecked. I’m not sure yet if we have invested more money in Iraq then we lost in the post 9-11 crash, but it has to be close. Invested is the correct term. Socialists don’t understand that because socialism doesn’t believe in investment, or supply and demand.
You are mistaken if you think Iran will be like Iraq. Iraq was the last battle, Iran is the next.
The Mad Dog Mullahs don’t like direct confrontations. They work thru cat’s paws and proxies. So an American attack on Iran won’t be meet with a direct response. Iran will walk out of the UN, and try to bring as many nations with it as it can. They will let Hezzbollah off the leash and start some serious sh1t in Lebanon. Maybe in Europe also. Send Hamas over the wall and try to get the West Bank to go Jihad. They will try and use OIL leverage to get the Euros to act against the USA. They might try and turn the UK or France into a battlefield to add to the pressure on Europeans to stop the US bombing campaign. They will hunker down at home and try to get America’s “allies” ( yes, snear quotes) to pressure this administration into stopping the bombing. What they won’t do is turn off the OIL and invade Iraq.
It will be up to State to bring enough pressure on our European allies to keep them hanging with us. The Mullahs will quit once it becomes obvious that they cannot split NATO.
If they do split NATO, then that’s good. If NATO can’t stand the strain of a flea bitten bunch of Mad Dog Mullahs, it won’t stand up to the Russians. WE need to know that now, not when it’s critical.
Iran can be dealt with by destroying select infrastructure and military assets and sanctions that minimize hardship on the general population. The majority of the population is not anti-American by any means.
May 7, 2008 - 10:18 pm Justin:@George
That is also my understanding
May 7, 2008 - 10:48 pm Bogdan of Australia:John Samford, that was an excelent opinion of yours. I have to agree with every word you wrote. Quite frankly, if Bush fails to act now it will mean the inglorious end of the US as a super-power, and an enormous encouragement for the world’s terrorist and totallitarian regimes to lounch the final assault on democracy. There is no doubt that from the military point of view the intervention in Iran would be a rather small beer and it would be much better to face Islamofascist terrorist response today that lets say in three-five years, when they could come into posession of the WMD. If we are affraid to act now, when Iran is relatively weak what options will we have when her regime is armed with nukes? Practically none. I haven’t known that the US president has to his disposal such a wide margin of freedom in conducting serious military operations before he could be made accountable or eventually stopped by a Congress. Prhaps he will use that freedom to do something. That was something I have been believing in as a long time, unflinching supporter and admirer of Bush. However I began having my serious doubt about his resolve when watching his administration’s absolutely ridiculous, absurd diplomatic chicanery in dealing with the matter of Middle East’s “peace process” and above all with the question of North Korea’s nuclear program. So I tend to believe that Bush has simply given up…
May 8, 2008 - 1:11 am Dark Helmet:Bogdan,
President Bush hasn’t given up, he is surrounded by politicians and not men.
May 8, 2008 - 5:49 am Mekan:It is not President Bush that is to be held to blame, but the Western society that is unwilling to deal with the wolves in the area. The time to deal with militant Islamism as it is today was in the 1970’s. Maybe we will deal with militant Islamism after a Western city is destroyed.
As for Russia, China, and India, I advise people to brush up on Mandarin.
May 8, 2008 - 8:13 am Ardeshir Dolat:America is the most powerful country in military terms. Thank goodness that America is also a democracy. But what is America? Who are Americans? America is a country that is made up of many nationals. America is the place where many a poor Irish, English, Welsh, Italians, Jews,Spanish, Chinese, and over three million Iranians immigrated to in search of freedom, liberty and prosperity. The US presidents and congress people, senators and decision makers are mostly originated from other parts of the world. These people naturally would want to help their country of origin. To give them a taste of what they have. Thats the psychology behind the American urge to liberate the world. It is a natural phenomenon. I live in the UK I have absolutely no ties to Iran whatsoever but still would want that country to be free and liberal because I am rooted to that country.
To me America is the country where good people and freedom loving people from all over the world reside and it is too right that they want to ensure a) their freedom and liberties are not threatened b) their country of origin should also be free and liberated.
America must remain the most powerful nation on earth.
God bless America.
May 8, 2008 - 8:22 am Nazish:Justin, you said “You get this propaganda from your Cleric and you believe it without question”
It has never been like that. I do research and confirm each & every statement….I think the above statement applies to you. You believe in the hearsay of your news channels propaganda which make the same statement everyday “War against Terrorism”……..Actually, war is terrorism.
Always remember, many people hold the title of a Muslim, but everyone doesn’t practice Islam…….If you are truly in search of the truth, then go & read the holy book & also the PEAK OF ELOQUENCE…..which many people won’t do as they haven’t even bothered to read their own religious books!!
It’s always like this that every religion has good & bad people. How would you judge any religion…By it’s bad people OR BY IT’S INFLUENTIAL PEOPLE OF HISTORY & IT’S RELIGIOUS BOOKS…!!
May 8, 2008 - 9:29 am JOHN:People talk of lost respect or capital or whatever for our involvement in Iraq. I like the idea of having 150,000 troops on the border with Iran not to mention the best navy in the world off their shore. The time is now; if we want to remain a super power then we better start acting like one. While were at it just who are we trying to impress? France, Germany, Italy? Those countries and others have killed millions of people. They need to be more concerned with the log in their own eye before trying to remove the spec from ours.
May 8, 2008 - 9:40 am madeleine7:Do it! Do it soon!!!!!! Bomb Iran!! - it only has one refinery……. Has to import nearly all refined products. Look at what Hizbollah has started in lebanon to-day. This is only the start…….!!!!!
May 8, 2008 - 11:15 am Justin:@ Nazish
You still didn’t answer my question about when somebody was thrown in jail for saying the Holocaust never happened.
May 8, 2008 - 12:55 pm J.J. Sefton:Oh Lord, who is this Nazi-ish?? Listen bug-wit, we are not at war with terrorism; we are at war with crazed fascists who hide behind the koran, as well as the skirts of women and girls. Pardon me; burqas. Please, I realize the enlightenment has passed you and about 1.25 billion people by but catch a clue.
May 8, 2008 - 3:10 pm Ira Zad:Go after the regime top leadership by assassinations; give the mullahs a taste of their own exported medicine by sabotaging and destroying their centers of power: start commando asymmetric war against the Tehran regime in all major cities destroying regime centers of power; provide total and complete logistics, material, weapons, training, and political support for secular democratic forces of inside and outside Iran, i.e., officially declare a policy of regime change in Iran and aquire other countries support in that as well; etc.
These are just some of the ways we can get rid of the mullah regime once and for all in Iran.
The Iranian people en masse despise this regime and are ready to throw it to the trash heap of history. They also love the west, are intelligent, and resourceful people. Help them help us.
May 9, 2008 - 10:38 pm Dan Tana:How long have people been predicting the death of America? I heard this same BS back in the 60’s.
Fact is that freedon and more form of capitalism are spread around the world. The evening of the economic and military power balance will not come
May 10, 2008 - 9:56 pm Shef Rogers:because of America’s demise, but from America’s success in exporting her ideals.
You guys will fall for anything. “End of the world”! The clearest proof that the Iranians can manage nukes is the fact that they’ve outplayed the US over and over and over, for the past 30 years. They play the game better than we do. Don’t be sore losers, guys.
May 11, 2008 - 11:59 am JFP:“on the other hand when a person denies Holocaust, u imprison him for 10 years!!”
Nazish, you’re talking about Europe and not the U.S.
May 11, 2008 - 8:23 pm Nazish:Yea, I’m talking about Europe & not U.S. (incase of Holocaust) but as regards NUKES, the U.S.
Well Justin, the names are here but did you just ever think why I didn’t write them in my previous reply, because I wanted u to search for them….but I realized how lazy you are, OR rather say, you aren’t curious to know about the TRUTH as since very long you’ve been believing in HEARSAY!!! (be courageous & accept it)
-David Irving
-Gerd Honsik
-Ernst Zundel
-Marcell Woll
-Horst Mahler….etc etc
What even if I told you about such names? I gave you the answer, NOW would you do what I say? Read the history of the LEADER ALI IBN-E-ABI TALIB (the husband of FATIMA ZAHRA) & THE HOLY QURAN & its TAFSEER (al-mizan). Would you do that or still be asleep & believe in what ANYONE says??
What kind of people you prefer: those who can’t prove their own point & so start making caricatures!! or those who INVITE you to read their holy books & then decide which one’s better?
May 12, 2008 - 12:43 amAs it’s said: It’s easy to wake up those who are asleep but difficult to awake those who PRETEND to be asleep.
Just think……you are among whom??