Iran’s Electoral Choice: Stalin or Gorbachev
The June 12 "vote" is about how best to prolong the life of a dying regime.
On June 12, the Iranian presidential election will be held. Despite the hopes and dreams of those believing that the tension with Iran relies upon the status of Ahmadinejad and not the regime as a whole, this election isn’t a referendum on whether to become a friend of the U.S.; nor is it a campaign about whether to eliminate the position of supreme leader, the head mullah who controls all the meaningful levers of power and is the true guiding force behind the regime’s actions and ideology. This is a debate about how best to prolong the life of the regime — whether to take a more Stalinist approach to the rising popular discontent or to engage in limited liberalization and tactical shifts in rhetoric and policy to solicit Western investment and appease the anti-mullah population.
Western observers need to remember that Ayatollah Khamenei and the mullahs of the Guardian Council decide who can run in the elections and therefore that no genuinely liberal candidate can emerge. To give you an idea of the high standards to which the mullahs’ hold the prospective candidates, consider that only four of about 475 people who sought to run for president were approved. It’s tempting to paint this as a clash between the anti-American conservatives, President Ahmadinejad and Mohsen Rezai — a former Revolutionary Guards commander thought to be involved in a 1994 bombing in Argentina and who likes to present himself as the more sensible hardliner — and the pro-West “liberal reformers” of Mir Hossein Mousavi, a former prime minister, and Mehdi Karoubi, a former speaker of parliament. However, such thinking fails to account for the political structure of the regime or the great deception Khamenei may be planning by creating (or allowing) a victory by a candidate more appealing to the West.
The truth is that neither Mousavi nor Karoubi can be expected to change the threat Iran poses in any meaningful way. Karoubi, while criticizing the power the Guardian Council has over the election process, has publicly stated that should he become president, he’d continue Iranian sponsorship of Hamas. Mousavi, though he has called for complete women’s rights and other positive reforms, was a staunch supporter of Ayatollah Khomeini and was a fiend to his liberal opponents when he was the editor-in-chief of the regime’s official “newspaper” after the Islamic Revolution. Mousavi’s appearances are often met with protests from Iranian students and political activists seeking answers about his alleged role in authorizing the execution of some 30,000 political opponents in 1988.
The general wisdom is that the June 12 election will result in a run-off between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad on June 19. The Iranian population would much rather have Mousavi win, but huge numbers boycotted the previous elections and will boycott these as a form of silent protest. As it is impossible to estimate how many Iranians will vote for moderate change out of desperation and how many will stay home, it’s unwise to make any firm predictions on whom voters will choose.
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Ryan Mauro is the founder of WorldThreats.com and the director of intelligence at the Asymmetrical Warfare and Intelligence Center (AWIC). He’s also the national security researcher for the Christian Action Network and a published author. He can be contacted at TDCAnalyst@aol.com.
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8 Comments
1. Bill K:Why do you people hate Iran? How threat is Iran to the world? Israel has committed alot of atrocities nobody, I mean nobody comment, you just they have the write defend themselves, How about Palestinians? they have the right to be killed. This world is for everybody, Israel has nukes so has india, North Korea. What you want is to monopolise the technology so that you should be called civilised western wolrd and we shoul remain uncivilised muslim world. To hell with this islamophobea to hell with bushes and blairs
Jun 9, 2009 - 6:05 am 2. Naif Mabat:Nothing in Iran is what it seems.
Remember that Mohammad Khatami, the wonderful liberal reformer, progressive, moderate, etc. etc. was president of Iran for eight (8) years and nothing changed. Not domestic policy, not freedom of the press, not executions of adulterers by stoning, not the nuclear program, not anti-American and anti-Israeli public holidays, not government supported anti-American Friday sermons, not the supreme leader’s control of the judiciary, not the show trials of Jews, Baha’is and dual nationals on trumped up espionage charges, not anti-semitic international conferences, not support for Hamas and Hezbollah. Nothing.
Is there really any reason to believe that no, if only Mousavi or Karoubi are elected, things will really be different this time?
Remember also that the evil, terrible, horrible, “Stalin” Ahmadi-Nejad was not elected in 2005 on an extremist platform. His campaign then was populist and even moderate on social issues and barely mentioned foreign policy at all. At the time, he and Karoubi were seen to be similar candidates competing for the same demographic.
Finally, remember that no incumbent has ever lost an election under the Iranian system that is in place since the revolution, where presidents are limited to two consecutive four-year terms. People like to recall Khatami’s “upstart” victory in 1997, but this was for an open seat, following Rafsanjani’s second term.
Ahmadi-Nejad will almost certainly be president for two terms as well. This is not because he is especially popular. The other presidents were not especially popular either. It is because the government controls the television and radio in Iran and heavily censors the newspapers and internet. And it is because there is no party system in Iran. Individuals can run against the incumbent, but they rely only on their friends and relatives to finance and staff their campaigns. There is no opposition party machine to back any single opposition party nominee. Imagine the 2004 US election with no Democratic party or Democratic nominee, but just the incumbent George Bush running against John Kerry, John Edwards, and Howard Dean all running as independents.
Jun 9, 2009 - 6:26 am 3. Mikey:@ Bill K #1 comment
Q: Why do you people hate Iran?
A: We don’t hate the Iranian people. The problem is Iran’s leaders and their expansionist islamofascism.
Q: How threat is Iran to the world?
A: Exporting weapons and technology to terrorists and sponsoring terrorism through proxies Hezbollah and Hamas and others
Q: Israel has committed alot of atrocities nobody, I mean nobody comment, you just they have the write defend themselves, How about Palestinians? they have the right to be killed.
A: In almost all instances, alleged Israeli atrocities end up to be fabrications, 1/2 truths and Palistenian propaganda.
When attacked, Israel has the right to defend itself.
Hey Bill K….. I have an idea.. why don’t the Palestinians stop attacking Israel, negotiate an end to hostilities, settle down and live peacefully?
Q: This world is for everybody, Israel has nukes so has india, North Korea. What you want is to monopolise the technology so that you should be called civilised western wolrd and we shoul remain uncivilised muslim world.
A: Simply not true. The west’s (world’s) intentions are to keep nukes out of the hands of terrorist and rogue regimes that can threaten and blackmail their neighbors. If we were against ‘uncivilized muslim world’ having nukes, why then is Pakistan nuclear?
Q:To hell with this islamophobea to hell with bushes and blairs.
A: To hell with islamofascist expansionism!
btw.. Bush & Blair are no longer in office. I’m sorry English is not your first language and that your press and mindset seem to be controlled.
I hope one day you are free to think for yourself, instead of being a parrot and victim of your culture.
Jun 9, 2009 - 7:24 am 4. Macko:If we didn’t want their oil and chewing gum we wouldn’t even have to talk to them. They would still be a couple of millenia behind us.
We should just kick their a$$ and take their gas.
Jun 9, 2009 - 10:12 am 5. nisky:To Bill K:
You just had a very shallow reasoning, and that’s typical of a muslim belief, and I wonder where did you get your western name.
Jun 9, 2009 - 7:22 pm 6. Naif Mabat:For anyone interested in the original topic, here’s an interesting article from ynet suggesting that many Iranian Jews support the reelection of Ahmadi-Nejad:
David Mutai, Spokesman of the Central Organization of Iranian Immigrants in Israel told Ynet “This is a vote for the lesser evil. In the past four years the president has mainly inflamed the internal public and infuriated the nations of the world. They feel that they know him and know what he is made of, the fear is of the unknown Mousavi, and the concern is that, instead of talk, he may take action.”
Hardly Stalin vs. Gorbachev.
Jun 10, 2009 - 6:06 am 7. Mary Stella:Ahmadinejad is again counting on uneducated population vote by bringing his speech in U.N., and the bright helo encircled him! He still wants them to believe he is the special messenger of the twelth Imam! I believe Ayatollah Khameneie is a little fed up with little Mahmooood!
Jun 10, 2009 - 4:49 pm 8. Typos_R_us:Whoever wins, Ayatollahs will drive the same radical policies.
When the Arabs terrorists groups, and Iranian backed terrorists Hezbollah stop attacking Israel, there will be peace in the Middle East.
Once Hamas changes its doctrine to throw every Jew in the sea, and live in peace with its neighbors, I mean Arab neighbors, of course there will be peace.
What has happended to all the land Israel has given back to the Palestinians? They turn it into a wasteland, then use it to send missles into schools and hospitals in Israel.
Where is your evidence that the Mad Dog Mullahs (hereafter MDM) are on their way out? Sounds more like wishful thinking to me.
Jun 11, 2009 - 8:01 amSeen thru the prism of Western Democracy, you might have an argument.
The MDM are NOT ‘western’ and Iran is NOT a democracy, no matter how often they vote. The Main MDM will die eventually and the lasser dogs will replace him with one of their own. And the beat goes on. Theocracy is a very stable form of government. Look at how long the Papacy has been around.