Iraq: Whither Sadr and the Mahdi Army?
Fighting rages on in Basra and other Iraqi cities, while some try to forge a compromise between the Iraqi government and Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. Others, Iraq the Model reports, would like to see the final crackdown on Sadr.
As fighting rages between government forces and Sadr’s militia in several cities, senior clerics from the hawza (senior Grand Ayatollahs) made a debut in the conflict.
Ayatollah Fadhil Al-Maliki issued a fatwa in which he openly called on police and army to abandon their duty, adding that operation Knights’ Charge is not targeting criminals but an aggression against “the majority of the Iraqi people.” Although there is news about a handful of soldiers and policemen abandoning their posts and joining the militia, this fatwa is not going to have a significant effect on operations. However it’s a reminder that there are still people who bet on fatwas as long as some are willing to offer allegiance to the sect instead of the country.
This fatwa revives the old conflict over legitimacy between the ethnic Arab and foreign clerics of the hawza. The former, like Ayatollah Al-Maliki or Sadr himself, accuse non-Arab clerics like Sistani of leading a “Hawza Samita” or a silent hawza in the face of what Sadr considers injustice and tyranny.
Iran, on the other hand and as we predicted yesterday, chose not to endorse Sadr’s position and did nothing more than issue a call through Ahmed Jannati, chief of the Guardians Council, for negotiations between Sadr and the government to resolve the crisis.
On the field, as fighting spread to include Karbala province, Sadrists rejected Maliki’s call to lay down their weapons and said they’d only surrender their weapons to a government that “fights the occupation”. Putting such an unrealistic condition is synonymous to “we will never lay down our weapons”. This defiance is logical from their perspective that is based on force and in order to justify the use of force they need to find a pretext—and what’s better than claiming to be fighting for the cause of national liberation!?
The clashes were not limited to the streets of Basra, the halls of the parliament saw some fighting as well, but in the form of fist-fights between Sadrist MPs and their counterparts from the other parties in the UIA. The UIA and Kurdish bloc walked out of last evening’s emergency session after an intense verbal exchange among some MPs developed into a fist fight, the chief of the UIA bloc Jalal al-Din Saghier told Radio Sawa.
The parliament as usual decided to form a committee to deal with the situation—a move to save face, no more; in Iraq we have a joke that says “if you want to not solve an issue, let a committee take care of it”.
Again, as predicted in an earlier post, Sadrists have approached tribal leaders and clerics and asked them to mediate between them and the government. The prince of the giant Rabi’a tribe will lead a delegation to negotiate a solution with the government.
Last but not least, it’s good to finally hear Maliki acknowledge the danger that Sadr’s militia pose to the country. Saying that Shia militias are “worse than al-Qaeda” signifies the ferocity of the battle and the enormous pressure it applies on the government. It makes me optimistic that the leadership has realized the extent and nature of the threat. In fact I hope that my expectation of a truce that spares the heads of evil proves wrong. Avoiding taking a battle to the end could cost us several times the price in recurrent outbreaks of violence.
While most influential parties seem to be in favor of the crackdown on Mahdi army (including Kurds who view Sadr as an obstacle to establishing the federal system that would grant them control over Kirkuk. Also recall that Masoud Barazani was so vocal in expressing his hostility to Sadr back in late 2003 when he was temporary president of the GC) Sadr’s old ally Ibrahim Jaafari stepped forward to call for an end to the fighting and to accept the Sadrists back in the political process. The statement was described by Maliki’s advisor Sami Askari as “inappropriate and meaningless“.
But ironically a similar call came from Adnan Duleimi of the Sunni Accord Front. In my opinion this came out of Duleimi’s concern about maintaining the balance of power among Shia parties—a Da’wa and SIIC with near absolute power in the center and south would put more power at the disposal of these parties in Baghdad with federalism again being the central issue.
I was going to stop here but now I see that Sadr finally decided to break his silence and make the first public appearance in several months. While the location of the interview remains undisclosed, the fact that he was interviewed by Ghassan Bin Jidou suggests that he’s either in Iran or is enjoying the generous hospitality of his Lebanese twin Nesrallah (can anyone check the recent stamps on Bin Jidou’s passport?).
I want to end this by saying that if we put together Sadr’s words that he’s in control of the Mahdi army and Maliki’s words that Shia militias are worse than al-Qaeda then the logical conclusion should be that Sadr must be dealt with in the same manner in which we deal with terrorist chiefs when we spot them.
Mohammed Fadhil blogs at Iraq the Model.
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43 Comments
1. Tom W.:Iraq has gone too far to retreat now. Too many people want freedom from fear and repression.
Armed militias have no place in a democracy that respects the rule of law.
Let’s hope PM Maliki has the courage to crush al Sadr’s gang of criminals once and for all.
Mar 29, 2008 - 7:17 pm 2. levotb:Maliki “courage”? Iraq “a democracy”? I think not. Just call it what it is–a toilet bowl and we’re wasting precious American lives and trillions on an unwinnable war, Bush’s war, the neocon’s war.
Mar 29, 2008 - 8:15 pm 3. Dan R.:Thanks, Mohammed. What you’re saying jibes with what’s being posted on Talisman Gate. Sounds like Maliki is determined to lance this particular boil. Let’s hope he doesn’t lose his nerve.
Mar 29, 2008 - 8:35 pm 4. Vigilante:The government of the Green Zone cannot muster the requisite boots on the ground to do it. Maliki is one more chickenhawk who is willing to fight to the last American KIA. Our valiant American fighting men and women, during this ignoble occupation assigned to them, have become just one more militia among many in Iraq. We may be the most powerful of all the militias, and the only one with air cover. But our militia, as the occupier, has the least legitimacy of all the others.
Mar 29, 2008 - 9:27 pm 5. Evil Neocon:Yes, this war is all my fault, levotb. I am to blame. Unlike some, I naively thought Arabs were capable of democracy. You evidently knew best. Just don’t tell that to the author of this article who is an Iraqi dedicated to freedom and democracy in his country. He might think you a racist.
Mar 29, 2008 - 9:42 pm 6. OmegaPaladin:Levotb,
You lefties never do your research. Mohammed (the name should have been a giveaway) isn’t a neocon toadie. He’s an Iraqi - you know, one of those people you want to throw under the bus. But then again, you guys never gave a damn about betraying our allies.
Mar 29, 2008 - 9:44 pm 7. Winefred:Nice one, levotb. Leave a comment on the blog of one of Iraq’s most courageous internet pioneers and call his country a toilet bowl. You’re a peach.
You resort to buzzwords instead of thought — invoke the boogieman “neocons” and you spare yourself the trouble of making a coherent argument. Were you following events a little more closely you would know that there is hardly a “neocon” left in the Bush administration. They were pretty much gone before the ‘04 elections, primarily because Bush did NOT heed their advice. It’s hard to say how things would have gone had he done so, but it would be a very different war and a different Iraq — Chalabi would have been the [puppet?] leader and American troops would probably have been out of there within a year. Moreoever, it’s a safe guess that Iraq would be awash in more blood than even your fevered imagination can conjure up, and Iran would have moved in set up camp by now. But a little genocide is a small price to pay for keeping our military home and bored, and our coffers full for socialist pipe-dreams — right? Mr. Obama said as much last July, and the Reid/Pelosi brigade seem quite content with the prospect. Those of us who have sons over there spend a lot of time thinking about the future of the Iraqi people — thinking, and CARING whether the mutual respect, trust and friendship that has built up over time between most Iraqis and their American “occupiers” will be thrown away by all those who care about nothing except ruining George Bush. Your sort will deny the existence of that trust, of course, but that’s because you have NO IDEA what’s going on over there. Mohammed Fahdil has lived through it all. It takes some nerve to contradict him from the safety of your American fox-hole.
Mar 29, 2008 - 10:18 pm 8. BenJCarter:Thanks for your report Mohammed. Your perspective as an Iraqi is very helpful in filling in the big picture. Information and analysis regarding Iraq, besides how many Americans have died, seems to be difficult for the majority of many American ‘News’ agencies to deliver.
Perhaps this is partially to blame for the factual and analytical flaws in some of the posts above…
Mar 29, 2008 - 10:39 pm 9. Peanut Gallery:Omega,
You’re forgetting that the Lefties would never betray an ally that’s white or European (Bosnia, Kosovo). It’s just people of color around the world who don’t deserve freedom (Venezuala, Iraq, Zimbabwe, Somalia, Rwanda, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc).
Mar 29, 2008 - 10:56 pm 10. Jim:Let’s assume for a moment that Maliki’s intention is not simply to get rid of an evil militia, but to destroy a political rival before the upcoming elections. In that case, should the US provide its full support for that? Is supporting Maliki in that endeavor really supporting freedom and democracy in Iraq?or is it doing exactly the opposite. Seems to me the word quagmire rings truer and truer with every passing day.
Mar 29, 2008 - 11:07 pm 11. Alex:The Iraqi Army was trained by the best.
Sadr’s days are numbered. Just like Pablo Escobar in Colombia, there is only so much borrowed time you can live off of acting like some kind of national “hero” and protector. With AQI in full retreat, the Mahdi is next on the most wanted list.
Mar 29, 2008 - 11:28 pm 12. Blogs For Victory » Iraq the Model on the Ongoing Battle:[...] to go to the source and see how an Iraqi is viewing the current battle: Last but not least, it’s good to finally hear [...]
Mar 29, 2008 - 11:29 pm 13. Antimedia:At least the lefties have revealed their true colors - racist hatemongers who wouldn’t “waste” one “precious” American life on brown-skinned Arabs or Iraqis. Those “valiant American fighting men and women” should never have their valuable lives wasted on the scum from other countries, according to these fine, principled people who stand for truth and justice.
What a bunch of disgusting subhuman jerks they are. Thank God that most Americans have the courage to fight for the right of Iraqis to decide their own destinies and not abandon them to the head-chopping monsters.
Mar 29, 2008 - 11:29 pm 14. ic:The parliament as usual decided to form a committee to deal with the situation…
Our Congress do that too, they call them bipartisan commissions. The intentions and the results are the same: do nothing while pretending to be doing something.
Iraqis, at least the politicians, learn fast. Next they will get rid of briberies by calling them campaign contributions. Democracy is nice, no?
Mar 29, 2008 - 11:30 pm 15. Nancy Gee:Mohammad, didn’t Sistani intercede to save Mookie once before when we had him cornered? If the Iraqi’s (or other interested parties) *are* able to get him in their gunsights, will Sistani step forward again, or will he also acknowledge the boil that needs to be lanced?
Mar 29, 2008 - 11:39 pm 16. tg:“You lefties never do your research”
What strange times we live in. A massive nation building project was/is one of the dumber ideas that’s risen out of liberal philosophy.
We can’t even fix ghettos in this country, you think Iraqis are going to fair better?
idiots.
Mar 29, 2008 - 11:54 pm 17. Sam:Crush them, and kill Sadr if possible and all his sub-chiefs remaining in country.
Reaching an accomodation short of that will result in a repeat down the road.
Mar 29, 2008 - 11:58 pm 18. Sunflower:We can’t even fix ghettos in this country
What a retarded self deluded and arrogant statement. Mar, please come fix my neighborhood, I’ve fallen and I can’t get up?
Mar 30, 2008 - 1:52 am 19. cv:That nation building stuff nerver will never work in Germany or Japan will it?
Mar 30, 2008 - 2:00 am 20. jvon:Right, Japan and Germany (just to name two) prove that it is impossible for us to rebuild a country after a war. We should just give up and go home now.
And am I the only one to notice that liberals seem to only be “concerned” about the well-being of our babykilling troops when it serves their very narrow political goals?
Mar 30, 2008 - 3:17 am 21. Jabba the Tutt:To Peanut Gallery: It’s not that Lefties won’t betray White allies (Afghanis are White, ex. Hazaras), they betray Americans and Europeans everyday. The Lefties don’t make a stink about Kosovo and Bosnia, because they are Muslims and the War was conducted by a Democrat.
Now, Lefties want to destroy Western Civilization in order to replace it with their fantasy of socialism, equality, multi-culturalism, etc. Muslims help them to that end. That’s why they don’t go “antiwar” and scream about “occupation” over Kosovo or Bosnia.
Do you agree?
Mar 30, 2008 - 3:25 am 22. ajacksonian:The Iraqi people did not ask for Sadr to ‘liberate them’ and Sadr has, instead, gone about killing those very same people who do not seek his liberation. He is waging war on them to get his way.
Iraqis did not ask for this fight with Sadr.
Given it, however, they sure do seem set on ENDING IT.
Thank you, Mohammed, for doing the job the MSM will not do.
Mar 30, 2008 - 3:45 am 23. Dennis:Levote: I implore you to calm down. Think; the founding document of the United States is the Declaration of Independence. The theme is the equality of mankind; albeit put in the document expressly written to King George III. “We hold these truths to be self evident that all men are created equal….” It does not say nor was it intended to to imply only those born fortunately in the United States, or rich or any other specific, it stated All Men. When we entered into wars against foreign powers it was for all men. Iraqi, Iranian Hungarian, Polish, French, Vietnamese, et al.
Mar 30, 2008 - 5:20 am 24. Doc99:We have not always succeeded or given our best (politically) but the underlying promise made in 1`776 is and should be within the heart of every American.
You should know that in order to overcome opposition to freedom it takes firstly an extreme effort to win the majority of whatever board you are trying to win over. That board may be city or town council, the Congress, or the President’s Cabinet.
Do not begrudge others for having been under the thumb of dictators and not understanding how we have the freedom to condemn our own government for not being perfect, then turning that imperfect into rage at their attempts to win what you distain.
We fight in order to bring forth a “more perfect union” not a perfect union. We fight to help others; Saddam was a very dangerous man. He was a tyrant that destroyed his own country. When we found the sad state of affairs in Iraq we set out to correct a great injustice. Do not stab Iraqis in the back as we did the Hungarians, North Koreans, Vietnamese and Iranians. We rid them of the Shah to bring in the horror.
Sadr offers to end fighting.
Mar 30, 2008 - 6:18 am 25. bubarooni:http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23866765/
‘but to destroy a political rival’
JAM is not a political party in the sense that we would normally think of. it is a militia, armed and funded by a foreign power, bent upon imposing it’s will upon the country for the benefit of it’s leader, it’s members and it’s patron.
it’s real power lies in it’s ‘50,000 armed members’, Iranian support and oil smuggling. when it withdrew from the political process it could do so because it really didn’t matter. political is not a base of it’s power.
the ‘ceasefire’ is simply a means to preserve one of the power bases (the armed followers). they well remember the drubbing they took several years ago.
if the central gov’t destroys sadr’s military power AND takes over the oil revenues sadr may be forced back into the political process to have any say.
the central gov’t seems to have moved with great haste to implement this operation, the americans had very little notice and the brits received none. maliki has had his hand forced OR is seizing an opportunity. he can not relent, especially after showing up in person at basrah to direct operations, unless he wins militarily and/or al-sadr makes some type of really significant concession.
despite breathless msm reporting to the contrary, it does seem that the central gov’t forces (Iraqi Army and Iraqi National Police) are making good progress.
i would love to know what has precipitated this.
Mar 30, 2008 - 6:26 am 26. Kafir:“…a little genocide is a small price to pay for keeping our military home and bored, and our coffers full for socialist pipe-dreams — right?”
The American Left in a nutshell. Bravo, Winefred.
“We can’t even fix ghettos in this country, you think Iraqis are going to fair [sic] better?”
tg, do you want to know why we can’t fix ghettos in this country? Because of men like FDR and LBJ. Men who decided that the way to fix ghettos was to throw money at them. The New Deal was put in place sixty years ago and The Great Society forty. Have they done a Goddamned thing? Apparently not, since you’re running around on a blog about Iraq complaining about ghettos and don’t even know the difference between “fair” and “fare” (Trillions to the Department of Education, and this is what we get).
In Iraq, we’re unencumbered by decades of soft socialism. We’re using American money to put Iraqis back to work. Nobody gets paid to sit at home watching Al-Oprah’s book club (Mein Kampf for the sixth straight week!). We’re training professionals; rebuilding factories and infrastructure; renovating schools and distributing supplies (including computers) to them; opening markets, promoting agriculture; getting oil to market.
If there’s anything you should complain about, it’s why we’re continuing to try to solve our own problems with a shovel and a wheelbarrow of money instead of using that money to create real opportunities for people to get themselves out of ghettos.
Mar 30, 2008 - 6:34 am 27. Doc99:Sadr orders fighters off streets.
Mar 30, 2008 - 6:48 am 28. Diggs:http://www.freerepublic.com/%5Ehttp://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7010482614
Every day that al Sadr stays alive, he gains in stature. His followers believe that the US hasn’t killed him because we fear him. There is no basis in their current society to believe that we might have allowed him to live in order to try to get him to accept a peaceful transition into the political process, and bring his militia with him.
Mar 30, 2008 - 7:05 am 29. Mark Eichenlaub:His death will bring a short duration frenzy of violence, but will ensure there’s no repeat performance of this long running soap-opera.
Mohammed,
Nice piece.
I had a few questions for you.
1. I read on Bill Roggio’s site that JAM was taking a lot of casualties over the past few days. Hundreds of killed and captured and I was wondering if you think this surprised them.
2. Will JAM be an Iraqi version of Hezbollah that will formidable long term or will they be disarmed eventually?
Mar 30, 2008 - 7:34 am 30. Bill Quick:Mohammed:
How strong is Iranian influence within the Badr Brigades today, and how strong is the influence of the Badr Brigades within the official Iraqi security forces?
Thanks.
Bill Quick
Mar 30, 2008 - 7:55 am 31. Just A Grunt:For those that don’t really follow the news or understand the dynamics on the ground in Iraq but rather rely on bumper stickers to get their news a couple of quick points in regards to Sadr and the Mahdi Militia. The Mahdi Militia is best compared to groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. They claim to be political parties but engage in campaigns of fear, intimidation and murder. Sadr is a coward who holds up the Koran as a shield, not as a religious text but rather a call to arms.
Mar 30, 2008 - 8:01 am 32. Anonymous:This offensive against the Mahdi Militia is being lead and conducted by the Iraqi Army with support from the Americans. Got that. The Iraqis are taking the lead on this. They are sick and tired of all of the violence. Now that the foreign fighters have been driven out they are turning on their domestic enemies. I have no doubt they will prevail in this fight and we need to let the Iraqis take the lead in this fight. Who better to understand the enemy?
While we sit back and watch the maneuvers both politically and militarily by the Maliki government and attempt to arm chair quarterback his moves, we can only hope he doesn’t read American newspapers.
I wish the government well and if they can’t get Sadr I hope that they can at least keep him out of the country now that he has shown he is unwilling to suffer the hardships and burdens of the very people he is asking to fight for him and for whom he professes to speak for.
How do the people of Iraq feel. Do they side with Sadr or the government?
Mar 30, 2008 - 8:19 am 33. Patrick Slattery:The Mahdi army fighters fight well and have good morale,probably because they see themselves as oppressed underdogs in Baghdad and proponents of Shia resistance to occupation.
Maybe if the government of Iraq was more effective in providing services to the Baghdad Mahdi,the Mahdi
Mar 30, 2008 - 12:01 pm 34. IraqVet:wouldn’t fight so hard.
I just got back in July from an extended surge deployment to Iraq, stationed on a very small base right on the mail pilgrimage route from Iran to the Shia holy cities of Karbala and Najaf. I led a tactical intelligence gathering and counterintelligence team.
The Mahdi Militia has been enabled by Maliki. My educated guess is that SCIRI is now holding Maliki’s feet to the fire, making him choose, in preparation for the next round of provincial elections. When I left, the Sadrist Current had 30 representatives in the Iraqi Council of Representatives. They use their official positions to directly enable Mahdi Militia terrorist operations against fellow Shia Iraqis in the form of mafia like control of cities and intimidation of Iraqi Security Forces, kidnapping, murder and extortion, and operations against coalition forces, including explosively formed projectile networks, supplied by Iran, which kill coalition forces and Iraqi Security Forces. The Sadrist Current representatives issue these gangs official MOI identity cards and weapons permits. They use official vehicles to bully their way past Iraq check points. Absolutely everyone in these areas like, for example, Babel Province, knows all about this, including coalition forces commanders. Unfortunately, our US state department says that these Sadrist Current representative members have immunity from prosecution. Coalition forces have not been allowed to designate the Mahdi Army as a “hostile force”, which would allow the level of kinetic targeting options to be ramped up to another level, and allow the designation of Mahdi Militia mafia figures as “status targets,” similar to Zarqawi. The Mahdi Militia does NOT have the popular support of the Shia Iraqi people.
Think of something similar to a cross between the Branch Davidians and the Sopranos, existing in a culture where there is no sociological history of consensual government for the common good, outside of ones tribal/kinship structure, and you might begin to understand.
Sadr is just continuing his power challenge (reference this chapter in The Closed Circle: An Interpretation of the Arabs, by David Pryce-Jones). Providing services has nothing to do with it.
Sadr is a moron. He is a puppet for those around him. He is using his fathers name (who was assassinated by Saddam). He is not a scholar and has not gone through the Shia Hawza theological education process. On the Shia street (where I spent 16 months) he is jokingly, if privately, referred to as the Playstation champion.
The Mahdi Army has taken power away from the Shia Sheikhs, and they don’t like it, but the sheikhs can’t band together because they don’t trust each other, and they know that, due to the political power of the Sadrist Current, they would face repercussions.
Cui bono? Iran. They enable all the various players because they benefit the most from the ensuing chaos.
By the way, does anyone here know anything about Shia eschatology (the study of “end times”)? When their “messiah” (Mahdi) returns in power in Saudi Arabia, he is going to establish his millenial kingdom in the city of Kufa, Iraq.
Do not try and fit this dynamic into your western ideological and sociological boxes.
Mar 30, 2008 - 6:12 pm 35. IraqVet:Bill Quick, you asked “How strong is Iranian influence within the Badr Brigades today, and how strong is the influence of the Badr Brigades within the official Iraqi security forces?”
Iranian influence is very strong in the Badr Brigades, which are the military wing of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, or whatever they are calling themselves these days. Read the Wikipedia articles on these groups.
SCIRI pretty much has a lock on the provincial governates in the Shia provinces, and has pretty good control of the Army and high level Police commands. In Babel province, Shia Iraqis who wanted to join the Army knew they had to “go” through the Badr Corp to do so.
For instance, in Babel Province, the governor is known to have not completed his elementary education, spent many years in Iran, and to have gotten his position because of his SCIRI position. People on the street disrespectfully refer to him as the Falafal vendor. His family members and toadies go around and use their “wasta”, or “who you know” influence, to solicit lucrative reconstruction project deals with the reconstruction teams around Iraq. It’s all about power, money and influence.
The police chief in Babel province, a Shia police general named Qais Hamza, was assassinated a few months ago. He was a courageous man by local standards. Flip a coin to decide if it was the Mahdi Army or or SCIRI/Badr who made the hit. General Qais was pretty relentless in his pursuit of Mahdi terrorist, who killed many of his officers. However, the SCIRI governate officials did nothing but put obstacles in his way. Now SCIRI and Mahdi Militia are fighting.
Confused yet?
Mar 30, 2008 - 6:34 pm 36. John Schuh:Good going, Iraqvet. My son was where you were back in the spring of 2004. Anyway the US can empower the sheiks? Does’t help when guys like Jack Reed spout the line that since the Iranian influence all the Shia factions, that the only sensible thing to do is to pull out and let them have the ground, or that’s what I understood him to be saying this morning on Fox.
Mar 30, 2008 - 7:33 pm 37. tl:Sadr really doesnt have a choice now that we have won the rest of the country and are rolling it up towards him. He cant disappear or he’ll lose too much and he cant join the party because he’s stuck in 814ad or sometime.
The pressitutes all try to make this look like such an ‘unravelling’ when its the opposite. the proof of that is that its not even our bullets flying at him but the other Iraqis pulling the triggers so that they can solidify yet another piece of the puzzle. At this point, everytime there’s another bloodletting its really just Iraq standing up that much taller and while horrible, unavoidable if every group insists in fighting it out to try and keep whatever relevance they can.
Mar 30, 2008 - 11:54 pm 38. Neo-andertal:Sadr had to stay benign until the battle moved towards him, now he’s stuck sitting in the middle of the dartboard.After his fat ass is in the bag the Shia on the Iranian side will be next.
Answer to Jim’s comment:
“Let’s assume for a moment that Maliki’s intention is not simply to get rid of an evil militia, but to destroy a political rival before the upcoming elections. In that case, should the US provide its full support for that? Is supporting Maliki in that endeavor really supporting freedom and democracy in Iraq?or is it doing exactly the opposite. Seems to me the word quagmire rings truer and truer with every passing day.”
I see this sentiment being repeated often the last few days. There’s a problem with the logic of the statement. You say Maliki’s intention is not “simply to get rid of an evil militia, but to destroy a political rival before the upcoming elections”. This tacitly acknowledges that Iraqi government needs to be rid of Sadr’s militia, but you disconnect Sadr’s political movement from the Militia organization when the two are one in the same and at the same purpose. Diminishing or destroying Sadr’s organization as a political entity is not contradictory to destroying his militia. To what extent they are actually able to do that is another question altogether.
I have no problem going after Sadr’s organization as well. It has opposed the very existance of the Iraqi government since its inception. It isn’t just a factional dispute. Sadr’s organization has made it clear that they are not going to be governed unless they themselves govern in an Islamic state. They don’t just oppose the present government they oppose the very idea of a secular government. Sadr’s organization is for all intents and purposes Hezbollah in Iraq and intend to set up a Shiite religious state along the lines proscribed by the Ayatollah Khomeini.
Mar 31, 2008 - 8:30 am 39. Brian H:Neo;
Mar 31, 2008 - 8:53 am 40. Neo-andertal:prezackly. Not that, under the covers, Hakeem is much better. My personal hope is that in the provincial and next national elections the voters send the seculars to Coventry. I.e., down the river to Sheol.
IraqVet, Thank you for your intelligent comments.
I think SCIRI’s hand in this is indeed problematic. On the one hand they have cooperated with the establishment of a new government, they have not rebelled, and they have not brazenly attacked other groups of the population (at least on a relative scale. Their detracting qualities are that they are at crossed purposes with the formation of a national government and their own ambitions. They are almost hopelessly corrupt, and they are playing both sides of the fence (pro occupation and pro Iranian). Perhaps the only saving grace about Karbala’s religious parties is that they don’t want to be lap dogs for the religious establishment in Qom. If they court Iran that is exactly what they will become. That is why they court American interests.
There are two strong groups in Iraq right now, the army and the religious parties surrounding SCIRI. In the long term the religious parties may be too clueless to rule effectively. That leaves the Army. For better or worse that may leave us where we were in the bad old days, propping up military hanta’s that nobody really likes but end up being a necessity. In the absence of a political center, that may be the best that can be done.
I’m afraid I don’t care for the alternatives. Many people talk about Iraq in terms of Lebanon. That may actually be quite optimistic. The internal and external forces tearing apart Iraq may do far worse. Other far worse places come to mind like Afghanistan, Chechnya, Kashmir, Bolivia, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Somalia, Cambodia, Burma, Liberia, Angola, sub-Saharan Africa or the Congo. Lebanon is rather opulent for a failed state. In a twisted way Syria did save Lebanon from a far worse fate, though Syria was a large factor in creating and sustaining the problem too. Oddly enough, whatever intentions aside, we are in a similar position. Iraq can barely sustain itself with us but faces certain death and destruction without us. Or we could run away and let the Iranians do it in their own loving manor.
My apologies for my outburst of shining optimism.
Mar 31, 2008 - 10:00 am 41. Pajamas Media » Blog Archive » In Focus: Iran the Basra Peacemaker?:[...] also Pajamas Media’s own Mohammed Fahdil’s take on the war on the Sadrists. Also, Meir Javedanfar has written about Muqtada’s extraordinary rebuke of Iran’s [...]
Mar 31, 2008 - 12:19 pm 42. IraqVet:Some random thoughts after reading several of the earlier posts.
Many Shia Iraqi Security Forces members who desire an establishment of the rule of law, which does not currently exist, long for the return of Ayad Allawi, for one example. They think only someone like Ayad Allawi will deal firmly with the terrorist groups and militias.
Consensual institutions will not work in Iraq. It is an all or nothing, top down, might makes right culture. We need to sponsor a strong man and give him the lattitude to deal with issues as he sees fit. There is no other solution. Iraqis will themselves tell you this.
The strong man strategy is what is helping us calm down Fallujah (for details, see the 3/24/08 Washington Post article, “In Fallujah, Peace Through Brute Strength: Iraq City’s Fragile Security Flows From Saddam Era Tactics.” Iraqi’s tell you this is the Iraqi way.
Our rules of engagement are ridiculous, but stem in part from the fact that half the American population wants us to lose so that their Bush hatred can be vindicated.
I don’t like Bush’s sense of what is going on in Iraq. I detest the arrogant stupidity that Bremer demonstrated during the tenure of the coalition provisional authority. I think Rumsfeld did great things for the US military, for example truly empowering our special operations command. But Rumsfeld was too enmeshed in his ideological narrative to be bothered by the facts on the ground.
Don’t blame the British for not continuing to bleed for Basra. Basra is a gangster hellhole. The Iraqi government has let the militias run amok for several years now. Why should the British do their job for them?
Maliki will absolutely not follow through on rooting out the Mahdi Army from Basra. It’s logistically and practically impossible. Sadr’s ceasefires are bullshit. It’s a public pronouncement that has no effect. Sadr has never done anything to reign in the supposedly rogue Mahdi Army special groups.
The US State department won’t let us destroy the Mahdi Militia party, the Sadrist Current, which holds several seats in their parliament, despite very direct involvement in terrorist activity, because this would be a delegitimizing influence on the concept of our support for the fledgling Iraqi “democracy.” The Sadrist Current members were, after all, elected. God forbid we interfere.
It is not American military commanders who consider Sadrist Current parliament members immune from prosecution. Many of them have homes in the Green Zone, living under our protection. We know who they are, and we have just as much proof of their complicity as we do for anyone else whose target package greenlit capture/kill and long term detention. Sadrist Current members enable terrorists who kill American soldiers.
Mar 31, 2008 - 5:45 pm 43. Dennis:Iraq Vet,
Apr 1, 2008 - 9:30 amThank you! What we were supposed to do in Viet Nam you have accomplished in Iraq. So much talk about last week, it needs to be pointed out that the American Trained Iraqi Army fought. The Free and elected government of Iraq sent them to fight. The Freely elected Prime Minister of Iraq called for the elimination of the “Domestic” enemy; called them worse than Al Qaida.
You gave them that spirit, training and by example knowledge that a free people can live better.
Words alone cannot say how proud you should be in every Endeavour you undertake,
God Bless a grateful American