Irish Voters Dump Latest EU Treaty
Ireland is the only country where citizens can directly make their voices heard on the EU's reheated constitution. And today they sent it packing.
So, the Irish “dwarf” has rejected the Lisbon Treaty — a decisive 53.4 percent against, to 46.6 in favor, with a turnout of more than 51 percent, in excess of the last time the Irish voted on an EU treaty.
Yet, the very idea of an Irish referendum on the latest European Union treaty is preposterous. With all but one of the 27 member states deciding on parliamentary ratification of the reheated constitution, masquerading as the Lisbon Treaty, it has been left to the three million voters of Ireland to decide the fate of a treaty that will affect the lives of 490 million — the population of the EU.
Such an idea is akin to the voters of Colorado deciding on the president of the United States of America, the others leaving it for their state legislatures to decide. Although, in Europe, this is not a presidential election — we are not allowed to elect the EU president set up by the new treaty. This is about approving an amended constitution and only the Irish people are to have a say in the process.
Before the event, there were few clues that the result was going to be so decisive. There were only two polls published, respectively last Friday and Sunday. The first put the “no” vote ahead by 35 percent to 30 percent while the Sunday edition gave a 42 to 39 percent lead to the “yes” campaign. The “don’t knows” far exceeded the differences between the two sides, and the turnout was uncertain. There was everything to play for.
Irish Foreign Minister Micheal Martin claimed that the “no” campaign had petered out, but the multi-millionaire leader of the anti-treaty group Libertas, Declan Ganley, was being more cautious, saying his group was “not taking any single voter for granted.”
The campaign itself was “played dirty.” Each side warned of dire consequences if their messages should fail to come through. Such were the passions that the “no” side invoked the Easter Uprising — which led to Irish independence — reminding voters in a bold poster that “People died for your freedom,” telling them not to throw it away.
On the other hand, a procession of European elites has warned the Irish that they would, in effect, be cast into outer darkness if they failed to support the treaty. Taoiseach (prime minister) Brian Cowen closed the “yes” campaign by telling his countrymen that a “yes” vote was “crucial” to Ireland’s future prospects. He flatly rejected the idea of renegotiating a better deal — a prospect that had been held out by the “antis.”
Ireland, of course, has history when it comes to rejecting EU treaties. It did it in 2001 when the Nice Treaty came to town, casting 54 to 46 percent against the treaty, on a low turnout of 34 percent. This caused shock throughout the Community, potentially derailing the treaty which required the unanimous assent of all member states before it comes into force.
With so much at stake, the Irish were told to go back and vote again — and this time to get it right. Backed by a huge effort from the government, the entire media, and industry, the citizens obeyed, holding another referendum a year later. Voting on what many regarded as a rigged question, they delivered 63 percent for the “yes” camp, with 37 percent for the noes, on a turnout of nearly 50 percent.
This time, however, it will be different. Already, the European Commission president has declared that the treaty is still “alive,” even though it is technically dead. However, there will be no overt attempt to make the Irish vote again, although the project will sail on.
Despite protestations to the contrary, the “colleagues” — as they like to call themselves — already have their “plan C” ready. Plan B is the Lisbon Treaty, a replacement for the first attempt at ramming through the new constitution, defeated by the French and Dutch referendums in 2005.
Stung by wholly justified accusations of bullying, they will play the “democracy card,” professing to bow to the will of the Irish people and accepting the result — albeit with some ritual and highly publicized breast-beating.
The smart money is then on the meeting of the 27 EU heads of state and governments at the European Council on 19-20 June doing some creative adjustments. The word in Brussels is that they will agree on a declaration excluding Ireland from the list of signatories to the Lisbon treaty. The remaining 26 member states can go ahead with “unanimous” ratification — a treaty built for 27 minus one.
Such a move might be of dubious legality, but such detail rarely worries the “colleagues” who have in any case been stealthily implementing the Lisbon Treaty, even though it is not yet in force.
Under such a regime, Ireland would be left out in the cold until such time as it “voluntarily” decides to rejoin the party. Possibly, after a sustained campaign by the Irish government and some more creative manipulation of the treaty — adding “declarations” addressing the citizens’ concerns — they may be invited to sign up alongside Croatia, when it joins the EU, piggybacking on their accession treaty.
Whatever does transpire, the one certainty is that the “colleagues” will not allow a small country like Ireland, on the periphery of the Community, to derail the “project.” And they are nothing if not inventive in bending their own rules when it suits them. We have had the theater, but the serious business of European political integration must go on.
Richard North is former director of research for a political group in the European Parliament and now a freelance political researcher and analyst. He’s also co-editor of the award-winning EUReferendum website.
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34 Comments
1. Tony:As a citizen of that small country “on the periphery of the Community” who personally voted “no” to the Lisbon Treaty I would like to make something clear.
The Irish people were the only ones allowed to vote on the treaty simply because any change to our constitution MUST be ratified by the citizens of Ireland. The populations of the remaining 26 countries of the EU were not given that opportunity. Although only 3 million Irish people were technically deciding the fate of the other 490 million in the EU it is essential to point out that only two years ago the Dutch and French people took the same view as we did……so its not too difficult to imagine that the 3 million Irish voters DID in fact speak for the rest of Europe who were not given a voice.
The political classes are rapidly losing touch with the will of the people throughout Europe and the shocking pomposity with which our own policital parties demanded a “yes” vote without deigning to explain in any way, shape or form just why exactly it was a good thing for Ireland to cast aside its veto in Europe emphasises the point. Scare mongers like Libertas and scum like Sinn Fein did not have the impact they or the media like to think in rejecting the treaty. We Irish may be stubborn but we are not stupid. When our constitution was drawn up in 1937 (after gaining independence from Britain) we chose the democratic route despite the fact that at that time fascism in countries like Italy, Germany, Spain and Russia were all the rage.
The No vote was to tell the polictical elite what we think of their distain for the will of the people and to hell with the consequences from the EU bullies.
Jun 13, 2008 - 12:03 pm 2. robotech master:Its not unexpected that a group of ppl in a democracy reject a treaty that removes their rights… its also not unexpected that they be the only one to vote against such a measure when they are the only ones ALLOWED to vote on such a measure….
Don’t worry Ireland your vote won’t count anyway because the EU doesn’t care… they are intent on imposing a unelected dictatorship over all the the land the EU claims as theirs and a little vote such as yours isn’t going to stop them.
Jun 13, 2008 - 12:44 pm 3. Sam:This is just a speedbump in front of the train. The totalitarians will hardly notice.
Jun 13, 2008 - 1:41 pm 4. David Gillies:The utter contempt that the EU shows to the people it governs is breathtaking. With every further accretion of power it becomes more and more arrogant. There is a complete disconnect between the people of Europe and their masters. National parliaments have had so many of their powers usurped that they are now etiolated to the point of superfluity. The size of the democratic deficit is so vast that one would think Europe would be on the point of revolution, but nearly half a billion people seem to be sleepwalking into a totalitarian superstate. Can liberty in Europe have been such a transient phenomenon? It appears so.
Jun 13, 2008 - 2:11 pm 5. John Kelly:It is not out of character for the Irish voters to reject the latest offer for a European Union constitution. They did it for themselves and for every other small nation in Europe. They do not want to go back to being a carelessly governed distant and small provence of an Empire. And neither do most other small European nations. The Irish however have the grit to stand up for democratic process and the character to tell the EU mandarins to “Pos Ma Hone.”
Jun 13, 2008 - 2:46 pm 6. Letalis Maximus, Esq.:First Guinness, now this. The Irish; is there nothing they can’t do?
Bravo, I say. Bravo.
Jun 13, 2008 - 2:53 pm 7. The Luck of the Irish « The View from Alexandria:[...] June 13, 2008 by philo On Friday the 13th, no less. The Irish have voted “No!” on the Lisbon Treaty. Good for them, and for Europe. Of course, the elites are likely to find another way…. [...]
Jun 13, 2008 - 2:55 pm 8. cv:we will see what happens in the other non-ratified countries
Jun 13, 2008 - 3:12 pm 9. Quand non veut dire oui:[...] envisagé, pour préserver certainement des apparences de démocratie. Plus dans cette veine ici: Irish Voters Dump Latest EU Treaty. N’oubliez pas non plus de fêter dignement les [...]
Jun 13, 2008 - 4:11 pm 10. Mark Sman:The EU won’t take NO for an answer so the thing will escalate.
Do any of you know of any gambling organization that would take bets on the assassination of a high-profile EU mover’n’shaker?
Jun 13, 2008 - 4:44 pm 11. Shay O'Toole (the man with six penises):The only sane comment above has been Tony’s. I come to the discussion from the other side. I would have voted for the Treaty if I hadn’t been halfway around the world. (I also would have put a substantial bet on, which as it turned out I was certain to win. Foolishly, the bookies began paying out on “Yes” bets when it became clear turnout was relatively high; in other words, they wound up everybody who had a betting slip regardless of what was written on it.) But Tony is quite right that the doom and gloom merchants on both sides of the debate did nothing but discredit themselves. People didn’t vote “no” because Declan Gormly or Gerry Adams told them to–though the spectacle of a home-grown George Soros using his megabucks to have public policy shaped to his liking is a worrying one–but for the good and simple reasons that they couldn’t see what was in it for Ireland. Whether or not it would have led to the EU vetoing our corporate tax rate, changing or abortion laws or merely conferring on the big powers even more influence than they have now, it could plausibly be argued that all of those things, none of which the Irish people want, were more likely if it passed. There was little or nothing presented to the electorate by way of corresponding advantages. Irish people have been, and remain, thoroughly Europhile, but they do not feel any duty to worsen their own lives so as to make the EU function more smoothly. That is not an irrational or disreputable stance. Quite the contrary.
There’s no need, then, for anyone to get excessively excited. The European project has not been killed by this vote; the EU will continue to jog along quite nicely. Foaming-at-the-mouth Eurosceptics who see this result as a foreshadowing of the kind of referendum on withdrawal from the EU that they would love to have are deluding themselves. And even though my “side” lost, I don’t think it at all a bad thing that the technocrats have had their leash jerked a little by the voters. If there *is* a larger lesson from this episode, it’s the same as in 2001 and 2005: the “Monnet model” of policy wonks coming up with very complicated proposals when they then present to the electorate and say “trust us; it’s the right thing to do” has run its course. Since at least the Maastricht Treaty, it has needed to persuade ordinary people that what it wanted was indeed the right thing. It hasn’t yet done so. And as the fate of Nice and now Lisbon has shown, it won’t get very much further until it does.
Jun 13, 2008 - 4:52 pm 12. Boinkie:Of course, the Eurocrats will just ignore the Irish and continue building their Utopia.
Jun 13, 2008 - 5:28 pm 13. Brett Bellmore:“Such an idea is akin to the voters of Colorado deciding on the president of the United States of America, the others leaving it for their state legislatures to decide.”
That’s a constitutionally feasible event, you understand: State legislatures aren’t *required* to let us vote on who gets the states’ electors, they can chose them in any manner they see fit, including throwing darts at a phone book.
Jun 13, 2008 - 5:47 pm 14. Liberty Valence:Well done, Ireland! You’ve given us all hope!
Jun 13, 2008 - 5:56 pm 15. Lou Minatti:Once the European Parliament has the power to regulate bloggers (the law is already in the works) these small bumps in the road will smooth out. The European State will soon be able to regulate political speech.
Jun 13, 2008 - 6:12 pm 16. Dave Barnes:“Such an idea is akin to the voters of Colorado deciding on the president of the United States of America”
That may well be the case come November.
Colorado is likely to switch from red to blue this year.
P.S. I love the Electoral College.
Jun 13, 2008 - 7:36 pm 17. NB:Way to go Ireland!
Jun 13, 2008 - 7:45 pm 18. patruped:bun biped:rău / E vineri, e 13 şi pisica neagră a lui O’Hara sperie sovietul suprem din Bruxelles:[...] la EU Referendum si Pajamas Media. PRINT — ShareThis [...]
Jun 13, 2008 - 8:24 pm 19. Dark Helmet:I love the Irish.
Jun 13, 2008 - 9:00 pm 20. ic:State legislatures aren’t *required* to let us vote on who gets the states’ electors,…
However, if they don’t, state legislators ain’t going to be state legislators no more.
Jun 13, 2008 - 10:42 pm 21. Esther:Days before the vote, I’ve asked a couple of Irish people what they were going to vote for. Their choice was ‘no’. But the interesting part was the reasons each of them gave.
One reason: everything is going well for Ireland now, why fix it if it’s not broken?
Another reason given:Why is it the future of 27 nations going to be handed over to 18? Will those 18 countries think about the other 9 non-represented ones? Be serious. Don’t think so.
Still another:The treaty is vague. Like it does not specify what are the powers of the president/prime minister etc. and yet they are providing for that position. What the heck he is going to do? Its like signing a blank check.(and the Irish don’t like that) =)
I totally agree with Tony and David when they posted this:
‘The political classes are rapidly losing touch with the will of the people throughout Europe and the shocking pomposity with which our own policital parties demanded a “yes” vote without deigning to explain in any way, shape or form just why exactly it was a good thing for Ireland to cast aside its veto in Europe emphasises the point.’ – Tony
‘The utter contempt that the EU shows to the people it governs is breathtaking. With every further accretion of power it becomes more and more arrogant.’ – David
I saw it for myself. In a show with Brian Lenihan pushing the ‘yes’ vote. His disdain for the other people was so visibile. His demeanor was, ‘I’m smart and you are stupid and therfore you should vote yes because I said so’ and when he talked it didn’t help because he used scare tactics like Ireland would be left behind if it says no.
There were no specifics. Why would Ireland be left behind? How or in what way would Ireland be left behind?
I always believe that in any political debate, a degree of respect and clarity must be observed, most especially to the audience who are tuned in to hear what you have to say or do.
If you asked me, Brian Lenihan did the ‘no’ party a favor.
Jun 14, 2008 - 1:27 am 22. John Samford:What a most excellent opportunity to put a stick in the EU’s socialist spokes. The USA should offer Ireland Statehood. Ireland could become the 51st state thereby telling the EU to collectively go bugger itself and resolving the British issue at the same time.
Jun 14, 2008 - 4:54 am 23. Europe, derailed | kopfzeiler.org:I can’t imagine Congress sitting there while foreign troops occupied American territory. They wouldn’t even have to become a state. Ireland would enjoy the same sort of arrangement Puerto Rico or Guam has.
As an aside, Once a ‘politician’ loses touch with the citizens and stops paying them attention, they stop being a politician and become a tyrant.
[...] Germany and the UK (with Prime Minster Gordon Brown risking a further slip in popularity), to continue ratification and leave the Irish behind, making the EU a 26+1 club for the next years, with Ireland joining [...]
Jun 14, 2008 - 9:03 am 24. Moultrie:Colorado is likely to switch from red to blue this year…I seriously doubt it…Nobama is likely to be dukakaed by the general election…just like the EUreaucraps have been cacaed by the Irish voter!
Jun 14, 2008 - 11:04 am 25. Mary:I congratulate Ireland on its brave stand — way to go!
If I were Irish, I’d want out of that whole mess altogether; and, from the looks of things, Ireland’s economy would do just fine. In fact, I’m just cynical enough to think it’s all about the money. Up till now, Ireland has been the recipient of EU loans, grants etc. — but Ireland’s books are shortly to go into the black. Cash cow for the EU, maybe?
Jun 14, 2008 - 11:25 am 26. RE:Kudos to the Irish.
Too bad EU bureaucrats will not respect the will of the people. A little thing like an unfavorable election result is not enough to stop totalitarians with their eye on the prize. It will only make them more underhanded and deceitful.
Jun 14, 2008 - 2:30 pm 27. Luana:Yippe! My grandfather would be proud!
Jun 14, 2008 - 5:21 pm 28. links for 2008-06-15 « Force Majeure Farm:[...] Irish Voters Dump Latest EU Treaty First Guiness, now this. Hooray for the Irish! (tags: fmfb) [...]
Jun 15, 2008 - 6:31 am 29. A Dane:Thank you to the Irish. You defiantly spoke for me, who was not allowed to have my saying since our treacherous prime minister thought us to bee too stupid to know what’s right.
Lets see what the antidemocrats in the EU now decide to do to destroy freedom and national sovereignty.
Jun 15, 2008 - 7:11 am 30. DrKrbyLuv:For the first time in my life, I am proud to be Irish!
I urge everyone to pay attention to what is happening in Europe because we’re next. Bush and his neocon cronies, are pushing for something similar along with Mexico and Canada. In fact, they are already well on their way with the Pan American highway, the new currency (Amero) and CAFTA.
Have you ever wondered why Bush refuses to close the border to Mexico despite the fact that over 83% of Americans are demanding it? Have you been wondering what happened to the Republican party?
Bush and his neoconservative friends must be purged from office and drummed out of the Republican Party. John McCain, a devout neocon, is hell bent on pushing this agenda hard.
Jun 15, 2008 - 8:12 am 31. Shay O'Toole (the man with six penises):Dr KrbyLuv:
“For the first time in my life, I am proud to be Irish.” Are you Michelle Obama’s Transatlantic cousin? Indeed, are you Michelle Obama?
Jun 16, 2008 - 1:26 pm 32. Grace Farmer:Go IRELAND!!!!
The little guy gets the last word…I love it!
Jun 16, 2008 - 4:10 pm 33. mailman:It appears the Irish are like many of us in the Southern States. We don’t appreciate being patted on the head and told to run along while the “grownups” talk politics. Well done!
Jun 16, 2008 - 5:02 pm 34. John Samford:Shay O’Toole (the man with six penises):
Are you the fella called buster
Who has penises in a cluster
He can achieve an erection
in any direction
and afterwards be used as a duster?
So if the Irish got to vote on joining the EU, the USA or none of the above, which do you think they would choose?
Jun 18, 2008 - 8:47 pm