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Is an Obama Landslide in the Oregon Mail?
A majority of Oregonians are expected to put a rubber stamp on Barack Obama's nomination today, but the Clinton forces have still been in there fighting.
A record turnout of 38% of all ballots were already cast in Oregon by noon on Monday, as the only all vote-by-mail system in the nation swung into action a day before the actual election. Ballot boxes in downtown Portland’s Pioneer Courthouse Square were in heavy use during the lunch hour. This was the first primary in decades where Oregon’s (pronounced Or-eh-gun by locals) voters have impact on the national resulted in unprecedented registration. So many last minute registrations were submitted that many voters are receiving two ballots, only one of which will be counted.
Oregonian voting in Pioneer Courthouse Square
Oregon’s (pronounced Or-A-GONE by twits) unique vote-by-mail system is made possible by a strong culture of independence. In the last decade voters have voted overwhelmingly for strong death with dignity and against same sex marriages, issues on opposite ends of the liberal-conservative divide. Most tellingly, Oregon voters get irritated over issues that are rammed down their throats in undemocratic ways. In the last year Portland Mayor Tom Potter’s attempt to change by fiat the name of Interstate Avenue to honor Cesar Chavez without a vote was derailed by community activism. The kinds of voter fraud rampant in Wisconsin and Illinois in 2004 are much less tolerated here because political machines would be ground up by irritated voters. The initiative and recall were invented in Oregon, and citizens here hate getting their power subverted by authorities.
In Portland, even the dog’s ears skew left!
How this will play out for “anointed” Democratic nominee Barack Obama remains to be seen. The black community in Oregon is less than 5%, smaller than the Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, and Transgender community that has been largely ignored by the Obama campaign. Barack Obama has yet to be interviewed by a gay newspaper (of which Portland has two), an omission that could be costly in Oregon’s thriving GLBT community.
Californians campaigning near ballot drop site.
Some people came all the way up from California to campaign for Hillary. Apparently they were unclear that all ballots people held were inside two sealed envelopes and unalterable. Campaigning near a ballot drop site is silly, but Oregonians expect that from Californians. What surprised the out of state volunteers was the way lawn signs for Hillary disappeared overnight. Unauthorized volunteers removed Clinton signs from other people’s home’s as their way of supporting democracy through vandalism and theft.
Campaigning on Monday for Hillary Clinton outside of the Willamette valley in Southern Oregon, “Ugly Betty” star America Ferrera was modest in her own potential to influence voters. Well-briefed on Oregonians, though, she pointed out our desire to participate in the national choice of candidates. It remains to be seen if a majority of Oregonians are tremendously excited about applying a rubber stamp for Barack Obama. The small cities of Medford, Grants Pass, and Klamath Falls are more conservative and host a growing Hispanic population; sending America Ferrara was genius.
Verifying signatures at Multnomah county Elections Division
Inside Multnomah county Elections Division offices the preparations for tomorrow night’s count were already underway. Signature verification, ballot sorting (into precincts), automated envelope opening, ballot preparation, and ballot review are proceeding in preparation for Tuesday night’s counting. Signature verification is one of the steps taken to detect voter fraud. Voter registration signatures are compared with the signatures on the ballot. (In 2004 one false positive was detected when a father and son with the same name registered as incorrect signatures.) Another part of preventing voter fraud is the party observers watching the entire process. On Monday afternoon no party observers were present, but this primary election isn’t about inter-party disputes. In the general election in November, the Republican enthusiasts and the Democratic lawyers will be thick on the ground.
Verifying ballot clarity before machine reading.
The election workers are probably the heart of why voter fraud does not work very well in Oregon. Teams of older people, carefully assembled from both main parties, handle all the ballots in the open in a manner reminiscent of a giant quilting bee. Focused work and shared communal activity in the open between folks committed to seeing democracy work functions. When a questionable ballot is found, it is set aside for closer study. Election workers are allowed to clarify voter intent, usually mistaken double marks. It is all very civil, professional, and transparent…the way democracy is supposed to work.
The Oregon Quilting Bee of Democracy
Before going out and talking to people, it looked to me like Obama was going to take Oregon in a walk, and he still might. Some things I discovered indicate to me that this might be harder. The lawn sign theft is the kind of thing arrogant jerks in Oregon do that really irritate the hell out of other Oregonians in ways that get them to get out the vote. Hillary very well may win Oregon because the vandals took Obama’s side. That record numbers of Oregonians are voting is not a good thing for somebody who claims to have the election in the bag. Oregonians hate getting ignored, the Obama campaign really wanted to be ignoring Oregon right now, and everybody knows it. Oregon is a red state with a blue colony.
That America Ferrera is campaigning for Hillary in places that don’t get to see TV stars all that often is quite possibly enough to bring in the red state part of Oregon in ways Obama did not match. Obama very well could get washed out in a spring flood of Oregon voting.
Patrick Lasswell lives in Portland and blogs at Moderate Risk
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14 Comments
1. Ed Wallis:The Author: “That record numbers of Oregonians are voting is not a good thing for somebody who claims to have the election in the bag. Oregonians hate getting ignored, the Obama campaign really wanted to be ignoring Oregon right now, and everybody knows it.”
Perhaps I misunderstand what you wish to say in the first part…unless it is an indirect way of saying that The Obamboozler’s empty hype of preordainment is becoming more transparent – and not only through, as you mention, the theft of lawn signs.
Silly me. I woulda thunk any candidate deserving success would welcome voter turnout – hah!
As to Obi having wanted to “ignore Oregon” – I think that speaks to his approach in general, and to why all Americans must reject him at the ballot box: he wishes to ignore all Americans, in the pursuit of his socialist agenda.
May 20, 2008 - 1:44 am 2. David Thomson:Hillary Clinton still has no realistic chance of winning the Democratic Party nomination regardless of Barack “Barry” Obama’s near future standing in the polls. The blacks and hard core leftists would rather see John McCain win in November then allow the “anointed one” to be pushed to the side. They will not change their minds even if Obama does poorly in Oregon.
I doubt very much McCain will win this left leaning state’s electoral votes in November. Still, today’s results in Oregon may signal that the Republican candidate will ultimately trounce Obama in the red and purple states—and he will therefore most likely be our next president.
May 20, 2008 - 2:26 am 3. politicalreacharound:I love how you guys buy into a conservative’s take on the motivations of democrats and Obama. You simply don’t understand democrats hence the socialist, anti-American, etc comments which you spew. You will be sorely disappointed when the “anointed” (why is that with quotations? oh yeah you guys are scared he will win)one wins Oregon handily. And as for the GOPs prospects on winning a state like Oregon or Michigan come November you need to take a look at who’s really drinking the Kool Aide.
May 20, 2008 - 6:58 am 4. Gordon R. Durand:I can’t believe you still got the pronunciation wrong. I’ve lived here all my life. It’s Ory-gun.
May 20, 2008 - 7:17 am 5. Son:Somehow I just knew you were an Oygunner.
May 20, 2008 - 8:03 am 6. Patrick S Lasswell:There are more commies, no I mean Social Democrats, no I mean Liberal Democrats, NO I mean Obamanators, in Oregon than at the annual Bolshevik’s Reunion & May Day Picnic.
Obama will take Orygun easy as pie.
Your characterization of the free spirit of the peoples democracy in action is a lot of hype. Orygun politics and the state machine are just like it was in Mother Russia.
Son,
If that were true, why did Measure 36 pass in 2004? By your reasoning the “defense of marriage” amendment should have gone down in flames instead of passing resoundingly.
Gordon R. Durand,
Not really. Most people who are not reading old window transfers pronounce it with a soft “eh” more than a hard “y”.
David Thompson,
What does “reality” have to do with anything? This is the art of the possible. Anything can happen between now and August, and it probably will. There are many more mistakes to be made, and Barack Obama has the talent and the attitude necessary to make them.
May 20, 2008 - 8:46 am 7. Jatts:This is very disturbing that thugs that are removing signs are siding with Obama.
Since March 4th, Obama is claiming to be the winner and wanted to ignore Hillary’s big wins in the remaining states, and shame on Sen. Bird (or Byrd) for endorsing him even though she won his state pretty damn big.
This a democrat who will not vote for Obama mainly:
May 20, 2008 - 9:45 am 8. Son:1. so many present votes he casted in IL state legislature.
2. poor debater
3. confused about his religion, still.
4. claims to be leftists, but ignoring LGBT groups, and above all snubbing Mayon Gavin Newsom.
5. loosing almost every battleground state that is crucial for a democrat president to win in Nov, states like PA, OH, MI, FL, WV.
6. being supported by Ted Kennedy.
7. being supported by John Kerry (a horrible campaigner)
Patric Lasswell,
“If that were true, why did Measure 36 pass in 2004? By your reasoning the “defense of marriage” amendment should have gone down in flames instead of passing resoundingly.”
2004?? This is 2008, and 1/2. 6 months to a new administration.
May 20, 2008 - 10:13 am 9. Son:Measure 36 simply guaranteed a stable tax base for the state.
What interest is best served by a guaranteed state tax base?
Answer: The State.
Patric Lasswell,
“If that were true, why did Measure 36 pass in 2004? By your reasoning the “defense of marriage” amendment should have gone down in flames instead of passing resoundingly.”
2004?? This is 2008, and 1/2. 6 months to a new administration.
May 20, 2008 - 10:19 am 10. Patrick S Lasswell:Measure 36 simply guaranteed a stable tax base for the state. What interest is best served by a guaranteed state tax base?
Answer: The State.
I’m thinking Obama by 60% in the Oregon primaries, but then I’ve always been identified by my conservative thinking.
Son,
You are a silly person. Measure 36 was an initiative, put on the ballot by voters. It was approved for inclusion in the Constitution the citizens. The “State” was far too chicken to touch that issue, which is why it was handled by initiative. You are letting your theories of monolithic state control get in the way of your perception of reality in ways that make you sound goofy.
May 20, 2008 - 11:15 am 11. David Thomson:“There are many more mistakes to be made, and Barack Obama has the talent and the attitude necessary to make them.”
Logic rarely influences those possessing the true believer mindset. An incredibly large number of “Barry” Obama supporter are inclined to believe in conspiracies. There is virtually nothing he can do to jeopardize their support. They will make sure that Hillary Clinton and the “white establishment” Democrats pay a huge price on election Day if Obama is pushed to the side.
May 20, 2008 - 12:33 pm 12. Anonymous:Patrick Lasswell,
“You are a silly person”………”you sound goofy”
I stand before you humbled by your scathing assesment of my
intelect and political theories.
I am also now forced to re-think my Obama by 60% prediction.
Nope…it will be the socialist of choice by 60% in Oregon.
May 20, 2008 - 5:54 pm 13. Patrick S Lasswell:The sheep have resoundingly baa’ed!
May 20, 2008 - 10:13 pm 14. Ed Wallis:Well, well…all those Obamboozler Cheerleaders really did their best…and Obi picked up 7 more delegates than Clinton in Oregon.
I only think it’s fair to add that Clinton picked up 23 more delegates than the Obamboozler in Kentucky.
Oh yeah. Like “it’s over.”
May 21, 2008 - 3:00 am