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FBI Reportedly Investigating Ehud Olmert
The soon-to-be-former Israeli prime minister's legal woes may extend to the U.S.
Talansky came to Israel voluntarily for his initial deposition and then his cross-examination. He has now refused to return for a third round of questioning. Apparently his lawyers have finally woken up to the fact that their client was liable to incriminate himself in the United States for tax evasion or money laundering.
So how does all this affect Olmert and Israeli politics? Interestingly, the FBI investigation might work in Olmert’s favor.
Last month, the prime minister claimed he intended to resign. In a dramatic speech delivered live from the prime minister’s residence at the top of the regular evening news hour, he said that he would not be a candidate in the September 17 primaries for Kadima, the party he now heads, and that he would resign once a new party head was elected.
As journalist and blogger Yossi Gurvitz points out (Hebrew link), a televised speech is not the legal procedure for resigning. If Olmert had really intended to resign, he would have had an official meeting with President Shimon Peres at the latter’s residence. Gurvitz believes that Olmert’s so-called resignation speech was just another tactic — a ploy to gain time.
The prime minister’s legal team succeeded in raising serious doubts regarding Talansky’s credibility during their cross-examination in July. If Talansky’s American attorneys fail to arrive at some kind of immunity-for-testimony deal with federal investigators, then it is very unlikely that the Israeli prosecutors’ office will have an opportunity to re-examine the Long Island businessman.
In that case, Olmert could well be in a position to convince the state prosecutor to drop the investigation for lack of evidence.
Meanwhile, Kadima’s two leading candidates are highly problematic. Minister of Transport Shaul Mofaz is leading within the party, but Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is, according to the polls, the most popular politician in the country. Kadima members see Livni as a threat; unlike Mofaz, who has shown himself to be a pragmatist that goes along to get along, Livni is perceived as a wild card who would shuffle cabinet seats and ministerial positions, removing many from the positions of power they enjoy.
If Mofaz were to win the primaries, he would be highly unlikely to succeed in bringing Kadima to an electoral victory. The former chief of staff is not a popular figure. He is singularly lacking in charisma, imagination and humor; his rise through the army ranks is generally regarded as a classic example of the Peter Principle. As minister of transport he has distinguished himself mostly for driving up the price of oil by hinting strongly, in remarks that were the subject of wide contempt in Israel, that the IAF was planning to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.
If Livni were to win the primaries she might succeed in winning a plurality of votes for Kadima in the national elections, but she would face severe obstacles in forming a coalition. (Israel’s fractured parliamentary system makes it impossible for a single party to win the necessary 61 out of 120 Knesset seats to form a government.) The religious party Shas, for example, might well refuse to join a coalition headed by a woman — unless she were to break the budget for their social programs. And even if she were to succeed in putting together a coalition, it would probably be a fragile one vulnerable to collapse.
Given either scenario, Olmert, who currently has a 2 percent approval rating and just survived three no-confidence votes, might actually start to look attractive.
In which case, he could announce that he is not going to resign after all. In the best interests of the country, of course. Which, to no one’s surprise, will just happen to coincide with the best interests of Ehud Olmert.
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Lisa Goldman is a freelance Canadian-Israeli journalist, who blogs at On the Face. She lives in Tel Aviv.
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4 Comments
1. Noga:I always considered Olmert a mediocre personality and never understood how he got to be Israel’s prime minister. Now it turns out that he was also a corrupt mediocrity who was not averse to making shady deals in semi-darkened corners. It defies all comprehrension where he had gotten the arrogance to believe that he could do all this and not be found out, sooner or later. Who do these people think they are? Why do they feel immune to the public’s scrutiny when they reach a certain elevated political stature?
Aug 19, 2008 - 6:51 am 2. Gabi:Noga, beauty and mediocrity are both in the eye of the beholder, and women and magicians both know how well sleight of hand can misdirect the human eye.
To be the prime minister in a parliamentary system, perceived mediocrity helps to seal impossible consensus agreements where the parties exit feeling at least better than mediocre, because expectations started at a low level, and yet they have something modest to show they achieved.
Ehud Olmert himself is not average or mediocre, he’s a modern political Houdini. I think Olmert is in politics for the same reason that Houdini continually attempted more daring escapes.
If Olmert is eventually given his day in a court of law, and if he is actually proven guilty of all of the accusations that have been so easily (and conveniently) aimed against him without any accountability or expense for the accusers, that would make him indisputably the greatest confidence artist ever discovered (the only Olympic contest where the winner gives back the gold medal).
However, in democratic nations the ticket-holders don’t need to remain chained to their seats when the magician’s tricks endanger the audience. At this point, the motives of the Kadima Party (a house of cards based on the cult of personality of Ariel Sharon) are being weighed in Israel, demonstrating the great strength of civil society in Israel as a free nation with the right to question the actions and motivations of their representatives and leaders.
Aug 20, 2008 - 1:56 am 3. ReCon USMC:Any one that follows Israeli politics knows why Ehud Olmert was selected sadly .
Aug 20, 2008 - 7:49 am 4. 49erDweet:He is a weak “Moderate ” and a Union man . Israel was tired of War and Olmert is a master comprise negotiator at the highest level and a Lawyer to boot . That is why he was selling Israel hear , Soul and land and border protection to people that wanted to destroy Israel .
That is also STRANGELY why he installed a Air Force moderate to run
the Military .Normally every other Military leader of Israel have been tough as as nails ground commanders with a long list of BRILLIANT WAR HERO’S .
That was also again “”Why ” they were not prepared for Hezbollah and the surprise power of their long time enemy .
If ReCon USMC is correct in saying Israel elected Olmert because they were “tired of War”, and I agree with that POV, then will the resulting mess the EO administration dumped on his countrymen serve as a lesson for US voters this fall? No, I suppose not.
“Tired of War” is akin to being “tired of life”, imo. No sane person wants war. But refusing to confront evil because one is “tired” or “nice” is turning over the streets to the crooks, and all that implies. Shades of Jima Cahtuh. Is it time for more Kool-Aid?
Aug 22, 2008 - 10:33 am